一个具暂时免疫且总人数可变的传染病动力学模型

建立了一个具常恢复率和接触率依赖于总人数的SIRS传染病动力学模型，讨论了系统平衡点的存在性和稳定性，对双线性传染率的特殊情形，给出了传染病平衡点的全局稳定性结论，推广和改进了已有的相应结果。     

Genome Characteristics and Evolution of Pseudorabies Virus Strains in Eastern China from 2017 to 2019

Since late 2011, outbreaks of pseudorabies virus(PRV) have occurred in southern China causing major economic losses to the pig industry. We previously reported that variant PRV forms and recombination in China could be the source of continued epidemics. Here, we analyzed samples from intensive pig farms in eastern China between 2017 and 2019, and sequenced the main glycoproteins(gB, gC, gD, and gE) to study the evolution characteristics of PRV. Based on the g C gene, we found that PRV variants belong to clade 2 and detected a founder effect during by the PRV epidemic. In addition,we detected inter-and intra-clade recombination; in particular, inter-clade recombination in the g B genes of strains FJ-ZXF and FJ-W2, which were recombinant with clade 1 strains. We also found specific amino-acid changes and positively selected sites, possibly associated with functional changes. This analysis of the emergence of PRV in China illustrates the need for continuous monitoring and the development of vaccines against specific variants of PRV.     

Comparison of Influenza Outbreaks in the Republic of Kazakhstan and Russia Induced by 2009 Yearly New Variant of А(H1N1) Influenza Virus

The aim of the work is the comparison of the epidemiology of influenza and acute respiratory virus infections (ARVI) in the Republic of Kazakhstan with the corresponding influenza epidemic in Russia induced by influenza pandemic virus A/California/07/2009 in 2009.Data on influenza and ARVI from the Republic of Kazakhstan and Federal Center of influenza was collected and investigated over the course of several weeks from hospitalized patients with the same diagnosis among all population and in age groups on ...     

肾综合征出血热胸部并发症的CT表现

目的：总结肾综合征出血热（EHF）胸部并发症的CT表现和探讨胸部CT表现对肾综合征出血热的诊断价值。方法：分析60例经HFRS-IgM阳性确诊的HFRS的胸部螺旋cT表现,其中轻型5例、中型20例、重型28例、危重型7例。结果：肺部感染22例,肺水肿12例,胸腔积液4l例,心包积液17例,其中,心包积液合并肺水肿者4例,肺部感染并胸腔积液者4例,胸腔积液合并下肺局部膨胀不全18例,胸部CT检查正常8例。结论：肾综舍征出血热,胸部并发症发生几率较高,以胸腔积液及胸腔积液并下肺膨胀不全发生几率最高,HFRS的胸部CT表现对于临床有很好的治疗意义,早期CT检查可准确显示肾综合征出血热病人胸部改变的特征。     

A useful relationship between epidemiology and queueing theory: The distribution of the number of infectives at the moment of the first detection

In this paper we establish a relation between the spread of infectious diseases and the dynamics of so called M/G/1 queues with processor sharing. The relation between the spread of epidemics and branching processes, which is well known in epidemiology, and the relation between M/G/1 queues and birth death processes, which is well known in queueing theory, will be combined to provide a framework in which results from queueing theory can be used in epidemiology and vice versa.In particular, we consider the number of infectious individuals in a standard SIR epidemic model at the moment of the first detection of the epidemic, where infectious individuals are detected at a constant per capita rate. We use a result from the literature on queueing processes to show that this number of infectious individuals is geometrically distributed.     

Stochastic modeling of the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the region of Valencia,Spain

In this paper, we study the dynamics of the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the population using stochastic models. The stochastic models are developed introducing stochastic perturbations on the demographic parameter as well as on the transmission rate of the RSV. Numerical simulations of the deterministic and stochastic models are performed in order to understand the effect of fluctuating birth rate and transmission rate of the RSV on the population dynamics. The numerical solutions of stochastic models are calculated using Euler-Maruyama and Milstein schemes, and confidence intervals for stochastic solutions are given using Monte-Carlo method. Analysis of the numerical results reveals that perturbations on the transmission rate are more decisive in the dynamics of RSV than perturbations on demographic parameters. In addition, the stochastic models show the advantage of reproducing more effectively the noisy RSV hospitalization data. It is concluded that these stochastic models are a viable option to provide a realistic modeling of the RSV dynamics on the population.     

一类潜伏期和染病期均传染且具非线性传染率的流行病模型

研究了一类潜伏期和染病期都传染的具非线性传染率的SEIS流行病模型,确定了各类平衡点存在的条件阈值,讨论了各平衡点的稳定性,揭示了潜伏期传染和染病期传染对流行病发展趋势的共同影响．     

2005-2011年血液科病房细菌分布及耐药情况

目的:探讨我院血液病房近7年临床分离细菌的分布及耐药特征,为临床合理选用抗生素提供参考依据.方法:回顾分析2005年～2011年间南京市鼓楼医院血液病房临床分离的细菌及药敏试验资料.鉴定菌种采用VITE-ATB系统并以Kirby-Bauer 纸片扩散法进行药敏试验,根据NCCLS标准判断结果.结果:7年间共送检标本5802例次,分离出细菌897株.其中革兰氏阴性菌占63.9％,革兰氏阳性菌占36.1％.革兰氏阴性菌中肠杆菌科细菌占48.8％,非发酵菌占38.8％;革兰氏阳性菌中葡萄球菌及肠球菌分别占70.9％及l9.5％.大肠埃希菌及肺炎克雷伯杆菌ESBLs的检出率分别为68.1％及27.3％;金黄色葡萄球菌及凝固酶阴性葡萄球菌中甲氧西林耐药株(MRSA和MRCNS)检出率分别为79.5％及85.3％.我科病房检出了替考拉宁中介金黄色葡萄球菌1株及万古霉素耐药人葡萄球菌.结论:血液病房病原菌分布仍以革兰氏阴性菌为主;总体细菌耐药性呈增长趋势,并出现对亚胺培南耐药的肠杆菌科、万古霉素耐药及替考拉宁不敏感的葡萄球菌属.