An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

Environment versus dispersal in the assembly of western Amazonian palm communities

Aim It is a central issue in ecology and biogeography to understand what governs community assembly and the maintenance of biodiversity in tropical rain forest ecosystems. A key question is the relative importance of environmental species sorting (niche assembly) and dispersal limitation (dispersal assembly), which we investigate using a large dataset from diverse palm communities. Location Lowland rain forest, western Amazon River Basin, Peru. Methods We inventoried palm communities, registering all palm individuals and recording environmental conditions in 149 transects of 5 m × 500 m. We used ordination, Mantel tests and indicator species analysis (ISA) to assess compositional patterns, species responses to geographical location and environmental factors. Mantel tests were used to assess the relative importance of geographical distance (as a proxy for dispersal limitation) and environmental differences as possible drivers of dissimilarity in palm species composition. We repeated the Mantel tests for subsets of species that differ in traits of likely importance for habitat specialization and dispersal (height and range size). Results We found a strong relationship between compositional dissimilarity and environmental distance and a weaker but also significant relationship between compositional dissimilarity and geographical distance. Consistent with expectations, relationships with environmental and geographical distance were stronger for understorey species than for canopy species. Geographical distance had a higher correlation with compositional dissimilarity for small‐ranged species compared with large‐ranged species, whereas the opposite was true for environmental distance. The main environmental correlates were inundation and soil nutrient levels. Main conclusions The assembly of palm communities in the western Amazon appears to be driven primarily by species sorting according to hydrology and soil, but with dispersal limitation also playing an important role. The importance of environmental characteristics and geographical distance varies depending on plant height and geographical range size in agreement with functional predictions, increasing our confidence in the inferred assembly mechanisms.     

格网尺度下典型旅游城市生态服务价值估算和时空分异特征——以三亚为例

以典型旅游城市三亚市为案例地，利用2006-2018年4期Landsat遥感影像数据，借助ENVI、ArcGIS平台定量识别土地利用演变特征，在1km×1km格网尺度下估算旅游地生态系统服务价值，并结合空间探索性数据分析揭示生态系统服务价值时空分异特征及其与旅游地发展的时空耦合关系。结果表明：（1）2006-2018年间，三亚市生态系统服务价值总量呈逐年下降趋势，由6.73×10⁹元降至5.76×10⁹元，累计减少9.78×10⁸元；（2）空间格局上，三亚市呈"南低北高"空间分异格局，2006-2018年增值区域连片分布于崖州区、天涯区、吉阳区南部区域，且呈逐年减少趋势，减值区域集聚于天涯区东北部、海棠区；（3）空间集聚上，生态系统服务价值截面各年份均呈显著空间正相关且相关性先降后增。高高集聚区位于天涯区北部区域，低低集聚区分布于沿海、海湾地区；（4）旅游发展与生态系统服务价值时空演化特征关联性较强。三亚市天涯区北部林地生态环境良好，生态系统服务价值略有下降但绝对数值稳定，是生态系统服务价值主要来源；旅游发展较为迅速的三亚湾、崖州湾以及海棠湾，相对增值区域较多，但绝对生态系统服务价值损失显著，严重滞后于其他区域。     

On the Application of Fuzzy Decision Theory in Chemotherapy

1IntreductionTheliteratUreonmulti-Criteriondecisionmaking(MCDM)problemshas~tremendouslyintherecentpast.TwomajorareashaveevolvedwhiChbothconcentrateondecisionmakingwithseveralcriteria:multiobjectivedecisionmaking(MODM)andmulti-attributedecisionmaking(MADM).TheformerconcentratesoncontinuousdecisionspaceandthelatterfocusesonproblemswithdiscreteSPace.FuzzysettheoryhascontributedtoMODMproblemsaswellastheMADMProblems.ThegeneralMODMproblemcanbedeft.edLllasfollows:Twostagescangenerallybe…     

Global patterns of diversity among the specialist birds of riverine landscapes

1. Despite the growing view that biodiversity provides a unifying theme in river ecology, global perspectives on richness in riverine landscapes are limited. As a result, there is little theory or quantitative data on features that might have influenced global patterns in riverine richness, nor are there clear indications of which riverine landscapes are important to conservation at the global scale. As conspicuous elements of the vertebrate fauna of riverine landscapes, we mapped the global distributions of all of the world's specialist riverine birds and assessed their richness in relation to latitude, altitude, primary productivity and geomorphological complexity (surface configuration). 2. Specialist riverine birds, typical of high‐energy riverine landscapes and dependent wholly or partly on production from river ecosystems, occur in 16 families. They are represented by an estimated 60 species divided equally between the passerines and non‐passerines. Major radiation has occurred among different families on different continents, indicating that birds have evolved several times into the niches provided by riverine landscapes. 3. Continental richness varies from four species in Europe to 28 in Asia, with richness on the latter continent disproportionately larger than would be expected from a random distribution with respect to land area. Richness is greatest in mountainous regions at latitudes of 20–40°N in the riverine landscapes of the Himalayan mountains, where 13 species overlap in range. 4. Family, genus and species richness in specialist riverine birds all increase significantly with productivity and surface configuration (i.e. relief). However, family richness was the best single predictor of the numbers of species or genera. In keeping with the effect of surface configuration, river‐bird richness peaks globally at 1300–1400 m altitude, and most species occur typically on small, fast rivers where they feed predominantly on invertebrates. Increased lengths of such streams in areas of high relief and rainfall might have been responsible for species–area effects. 5. We propose the hypothesis that the diversity in channel forms and habitats in riverine landscapes, in addition to high temperature and primary productivity, have been prerequisites to the development of global patterns in the richness of specialist riverine organisms. We advocate tests of this hypothesis in other taxonomic groups. We draw attention, however, to the challenges of categorically defining riverine organisms in such tests because (i) rivers grade into many other habitat types across several different ecotones and (ii) `terrestrialisation' processes in riverine landscapes means that they offer habitat for organisms whose evolutionary origins are not exclusively riverine.     

Environmental and genetic control of crassulacean acid metabolism in two crassulacean species and an F1 hybrid with differing biomass δ13C values

Abstract The growth, biomass δ¹³C values, and ability to accumulate titratable acidity at night were compared in eight environmental treatments for Cremnophila linguifolia, Sedum greggii, and their F₁ hybrid. In the phytotron, differences in treatment daylength, day/night temperature and water availability were all found to have effects on total plant dry weight, nocturnal accumulation of titratable acidity and biomass δ¹³C value of at least some of the genotypes. However, there were differences between the genotypes both in the magnitude and direction of response of the phenotypic properties to the treatment variables. The phytotron δ¹³C values ranged from -12.9 to -19.2‰ for C. linguifolia, from -22.2 to -33.4‰ for S. greggii, and from -19.2 to -24.9‰ for the hybrid. After with-holding water for 76 h both C. linguifolia and the hybrid had midday Ψ_leaf values of -0.23 MPa; however, S. greggii had a value of -1.05 MPa. In contrast to past observations of other species, the daily watered plants of C. linguifolia had less negative δ¹³C values than did the plants watered only weekly.     

基于价值评估的黄山市生境质量时空演变特征分析

评价与分析特定区域的生境质量及其时空变化对其生态安全格局构建、可持续发展意义重大。本文以典型旅游城市黄山市为研究区，综合生态系统服务价值评价模型、基于NPP与NDVI的生境质量指数评价、InVEST生境质量评价模型、空间分析等模型与方法对黄山市1987-2017年生境质量进行研究。结果表明：（1）1987-2007年，黄山市生境质量总值持续下降，2017出现回升，但生境受到的威胁仍增加，生境最优区为北部太平湖区域，生境质量低值主要分布在各县区主城区；生境质量栅格等级变化以4等级转变为3等级为主。（2）1987-2017年，黄山市105个乡镇（街道）中有84个乡镇（街道）生境质量有所下降，主要分布在东部区域；北部环太平湖区域的乡镇为生境质量"高高"型聚集区及热点区域，屯溪区、徽州区南部、歙县、休宁县主城区的各镇为生境质量"低低"型聚集区及冷点区域。（3）黄山市城市发展对生境质量影响较大，大体上距离城市中心点越近的圈层，生境质量越差；距离黄山市旅游中心点10-20、30-40、40-50 km的3个圈层形成生境质量低值点，为旅游与城区互助发展的结果；黄山市旅游与生境质量空间分布相关性较强，旅游设施、景区核密度越高，低等级生境质量占比越高。     

Cartography and Clandestinité in Leïla Sebbar’s Shérazade: 17 ans, brune, frisée, les yeux verts

In this paper, I read Leïla Sebbar’s staging in her novel Shérazade: 17 ans, brune, frisée, les yeux verts of the resistance by children of North African and other immigrants in the early 1980s to the French state’s cartographic modes and documents of control. The paper will consider the many uses to which the map was put by the French state in its colonization of North Africa and particularly Algeria, and later in its attempts to control the banlieues its policies of citizenship and cartographic control yielded on the margins of Paris. In this context, I will explore the ways in which the novel’s characters, living clandestinely in a squatt, simultaneously resist, put to use, and even supercede state documents of control as they disrupt everyday life and conduct heists across the city of Paris. The paper will explore unofficial cartographies of Paris, from those afforded by the radios libres and alternative publications such as Libération and Sans Frontièrez, to oral and almost proverbial networks of knowledge criss-crossing the city of Paris, while also tracing the uses to which supplemental cartographic sketches and counterfeit identity cards are put in the pages of the novel. The paper will be in dialogue with theoretical and critical formulations of space, cartography, and state control put forward by Michel de Certeau, Henri Lefebvre, Michel Foucault, and Tom Conley. The paper will conclude with a consideration of the means and limits of resistance by the novel’s characters in the context of this body of theory and criticism.