When the Background Matters: Using Scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models in Prospective Life Cycle Assessment

Prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) needs to deal with the large epistemological uncertainty about the future to support more robust future environmental impact assessments of technologies. This study proposes a novel approach that systematically changes the background processes in a prospective LCA based on scenarios of an integrated assessment model (IAM), the IMAGE model. Consistent worldwide scenarios from IMAGE are evaluated in the life cycle inventory using ecoinvent v3.3. To test the approach, only the electricity sector was changed in a prospective LCA of an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and an electric vehicle (EV) using six baseline and mitigation climate scenarios until 2050. This case study shows that changes in the electricity background can be very important for the environmental impacts of EV. Also, the approach demonstrates that the relative environmental performance of EV and ICEV over time is more complex and multifaceted than previously assumed. Uncertainty due to future developments manifests in different impacts depending on the product (EV or ICEV), the impact category, and the scenario and year considered. More robust prospective LCAs can be achieved, particularly for emerging technologies, by expanding this approach to other economic sectors beyond electricity background changes and mobility applications as well as by including uncertainty and changes in foreground parameters. A more systematic and structured composition of future inventory databases driven by IAM scenarios helps to acknowledge epistemological uncertainty and to increase the temporal consistency of foreground and background systems in LCAs of emerging technologies.     

Dimensionless numbers and life history evolution: Age of maturity versus the adult lifespan

Summary Within many taxa the age of maturity is not simply positively correlated with the adult lifespan; the two variables are proportional to each other. The dimensionless number which is the constant of proportionality thus becomes something to be predicted by life history theory.     

Alterations in the Colonic Microbiota of Pigs Associated with Feeding Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles

In an effort to reduce feed costs, many pork producers have increased their use of coproducts of biofuel production in commercial pig diets, including increased feeding of distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS). The inclusion of DDGS increases the insoluble fiber content in the ration, which has the potential to impact the colonic microbiota considerably as the large intestine contains a dynamic microenvironment with tremendous interplay between microorganisms. Any alteration to the physical or chemical properties of the colonic contents has the potential to impact the resident bacterial population and potentially favor or inhibit the establishment of pathogenic species. In the present study, colonic contents collected at necropsy from pigs fed either 30% or no DDGS were analyzed to examine the relative abundance of bacterial taxa associated with feeding this ingredient. No difference in alpha diversity (richness) was detected between diet groups. However, the beta diversity was significantly different between groups with feeding of DDGS being associated with a decreased Firmicutes:Bacteriodetes ratio (P = .004) and a significantly lower abundance of Lactobacillus spp. (P = .016). Predictive functional profiling of the microbiota revealed more predicted genes associated with carbohydrate metabolism, protein digestion, and degradation of glycans in the microbiota of pigs fed DDGS. Taken together, these findings confirm that alterations in dietary insoluble fiber significantly alter the colonic microbial profile of pigs and suggest the resultant microbiome may predispose to the development of colitis.