When the Background Matters: Using Scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models in Prospective Life Cycle Assessment

Prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) needs to deal with the large epistemological uncertainty about the future to support more robust future environmental impact assessments of technologies. This study proposes a novel approach that systematically changes the background processes in a prospective LCA based on scenarios of an integrated assessment model (IAM), the IMAGE model. Consistent worldwide scenarios from IMAGE are evaluated in the life cycle inventory using ecoinvent v3.3. To test the approach, only the electricity sector was changed in a prospective LCA of an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and an electric vehicle (EV) using six baseline and mitigation climate scenarios until 2050. This case study shows that changes in the electricity background can be very important for the environmental impacts of EV. Also, the approach demonstrates that the relative environmental performance of EV and ICEV over time is more complex and multifaceted than previously assumed. Uncertainty due to future developments manifests in different impacts depending on the product (EV or ICEV), the impact category, and the scenario and year considered. More robust prospective LCAs can be achieved, particularly for emerging technologies, by expanding this approach to other economic sectors beyond electricity background changes and mobility applications as well as by including uncertainty and changes in foreground parameters. A more systematic and structured composition of future inventory databases driven by IAM scenarios helps to acknowledge epistemological uncertainty and to increase the temporal consistency of foreground and background systems in LCAs of emerging technologies.     

Habitat preference in the critically endangered yellow‐tailed woolly monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda) at La Esperanza,Peru

Habitat loss is one of the main threats to wildlife. Therefore, knowledge of habitat use and preference is essential for the design of conservation strategies and identification of priority sites for the protection of endangered species. The yellow‐tailed woolly monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda Humboldt, 1812), categorized as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List, is endemic to montane forests in northern Peru where its habitat is greatly threatened. We assessed how habitat use and preference in L. flavicauda are linked to forest structure and composition. The study took place near La Esperanza, in the Amazonas region, Peru. Our objective was to identify characteristics of habitat most utilized by L. flavicauda to provide information that will be useful for the selection of priority sites for conservation measures. Using presence records collected from May 2013 to February 2014 for one group of L. flavicauda, we classified the study site into three different use zones: low‐use, medium‐use, and high‐use. We assessed forest structure and composition for all use zones using 0.1 ha Gentry vegetation transects. Results show high levels of variation in plant species composition across the three use zones. Plants used as food resources had considerably greater density, dominance, and ecological importance in high‐use zones. High‐use zones presented similar structure to medium‐ and low‐use zones; thus it remains difficult to assess the influence of forest structure on habitat preference. We recommend focusing conservation efforts on areas with a similar floristic composition to the high‐use zones recorded in this study and suggest utilizing key alimentation species for reforestation efforts.     

K dependence of the Na-K pump is abnormal in erythrocytes from patients with cystic fibrosis and obligate heterozygotes

The affinity of the Na-K pump for K was significantly (P less than .001) lower in erythrocytes from patients with cystic fibrosis (Km 4.6 +/- 0.35 mM; n = 26) or from heterozygotes (Km 3.9 +/- 0.57 mM; n = 12) than in controls (Km 2.2 +/- 0.10 mM; n = 20). The affinity of the Na-K pump for K was lower in normal erythrocytes than in normal fibroblasts which may explain the variability in the severity of involvement of different organs in cystic fibrosis. We have now shown in human skin fibroblasts and erythrocytes, that the K affinity of the Na-K pump is lower in patients with cystic fibrosis than in controls. Since the abnormality is also present in erythrocytes from heterozygotes who are clinically normal, it is likely that this abnormality is closely related to the genetic defect in cystic fibrosis.     

Only the Carrot,Not the Stick: Incorporating Trust into the Enforcement of Regulation

New enforcement strategies allow agents to gain the regulator’s trust and consequently face a lower audit probability. Prior research suggests that, in order to prevent lower compliance, a reduction in the audit probability (the “carrot”) must be compensated with the introduction of a higher penalty for non-compliance (the “stick”). However, such carrot-and-stick strategies reflect neither the concept of trust nor the strategies observed in practice. In response to this, we define trust-based regulation as a strategy that incorporates rules that allow trust to develop, and using a generic (non-cooperative) game of tax compliance, we examine whether trust-based regulation is feasible (i.e., whether, in equilibrium, a reduction in the audit probability, without ever increasing the penalty for non-compliance, does not lead to reduced compliance). The model shows that trust-based regulation is feasible when the agent sufficiently values the future. In line with the concept of trust, this strategy is feasible when the regulator is uncertain about the agent’s intentions. Moreover, the model shows that (i) introducing higher penalties makes trust-based regulation less feasible, and (ii) combining trust and forgiveness can lead to a lower audit probability for both trusted and distrusted agents. Policy recommendations often point toward increasing deterrence. This model shows that the opposite can be optimal.     

Metagenomic Analysis from the Interior of a Speleothem in Tjuv-Ante's Cave,Northern Sweden

Speleothems are secondary mineral deposits normally formed by water supersaturated with calcium carbonate percolating into underground caves, and are often associated with low-nutrient and mostly non-phototrophic conditions. Tjuv-Ante’s cave is a shallow-depth cave formed by the action of waves, with granite and dolerite as major components, and opal-A and calcite as part of the speleothems, making it a rare kind of cave. We generated two DNA shotgun sequencing metagenomic datasets from the interior of a speleothem from Tjuv-Ante’s cave representing areas of old and relatively recent speleothem formation. We used these datasets to perform i) an evaluation of the use of these speleothems as past biodiversity archives, ii) functional and taxonomic profiling of the speleothem’s different formation periods, and iii) taxonomic comparison of the metagenomic results to previous microscopic analyses from a nearby speleothem of the same cave. Our analyses confirm the abundance of Actinobacteria and fungi as previously reported by microscopic analyses on this cave, however we also discovered a larger biodiversity. Interestingly, we identified photosynthetic genes, as well as genes related to iron and sulphur metabolism, suggesting the presence of chemoautotrophs. Furthermore, we identified taxa and functions related to biomineralization. However, we could not confidently establish the use of this type of speleothems as biological paleoarchives due to the potential leaching from the outside of the cave and the DNA damage that we propose has been caused by the fungal chemical etching.     

Species differences in adrenocortical activity of new world primates: Response to dexamethasone suppression

The effect of dexamethasone-induced alteration of adrenocortical activity was assessed in two species of New World primates: Saimiri sciureus and Callicebus moloch. Basal and stress levels of corticosteroids were determined following treatment with three doses of dexamethasone (0, 50, or 500 μg/kg). Saimiri showed substantially higher basal levels of corticosteroids than did Callicebus and a greater incremental corticosteroid response to physical restraint. Dexamethasone was found to reduce basal corticosteroids in both species, although this effect was greater for Callicebus than for Saimiri Moreover, the adrenocortical response to physical restraint was reduced by dexamethasone treatment in Callicebus but not in Saimiri. The pattern of results suggests that the species differ in the mechanisms mediating adrenocortical activity.     

8-Hydroxypegolettiolide,a sesquiterpene lactone with a new carbon skeleton and further constituents from Pegolettia senegalensis

The investigation of Pegolettia senegalensis afforded several new sesquiterpene lactones, eight cis-6,12-germacra-trans,trans-1(10),4,11-trienolides, five cis-6,12-eudesmanolides, two elemanolides, 8,14-cyclogermacra-1(10),4,7(11)-trien-6,12-olide with a new carbon skeleton, three germacra-1(10),4,11(13)-trien-12-oic acids with ester residues at C-8, 18-hydroxygeranyl nerol, 1,3-dihydroxyoctadecane and a mixture of esters of 3,4-dihydroxy-dihydrocinnamyl alcohol. The structures were elucidated by high field ¹HNMR spectroscopy and some chemical transformations. The C-10 configuration of 6,12-cis-eudesmanolides from Calostephane divaricata and Inula crithmoides most likely has to be corrected. The chemotaxonomic situation of the genus Pegolettia and biogenetic considerations are discussed briefly.