Coordinated approaches to quantify long‐term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long‐term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long‐lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes require experiments on decadal time scales. But decadal experiments by themselves may not be adequate because many of the slow processes have characteristic time scales much longer than experiments can be maintained. This article promotes a coordinated approach that combines long‐term, large‐scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long‐term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high‐priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high‐latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain concerning future states of the earth system. The long‐term experiments should be conducted in tandem with complementary process studies, such as those using model ecosystems, species replacements, laboratory incubations, isotope tracers, and greenhouse facilities. Models are essential to assimilate data from long‐term experiments and process studies together with information from long‐term observations, surveys, and space‐for‐time studies along environmental and biological gradients. Future research programs with coordinated long‐term experiments, process studies, and modeling have the potential to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long‐term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change.     

Shrub encroachment in North American grasslands: shifts in growth form dominance rapidly alters control of ecosystem carbon inputs

Shrub encroachment into grass-dominated biomes is occurring globally due to a variety of anthropogenic activities, but the consequences for carbon (C) inputs, storage and cycling remain unclear. We studied eight North American graminoid-dominated ecosystems invaded by shrubs, from arctic tundra to Atlantic coastal dunes, to quantify patterns and controls of C inputs via aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Across a fourfold range in mean annual precipitation (MAP), a key regulator of ecosystem C input at the continental scale, shrub invasion decreased ANPP in xeric sites, but dramatically increased ANPP (>1000 g m⁻²) at high MAP, where shrub patches maintained extraordinarily high leaf area. Concurrently, the relationship between MAP and ANPP shifted from being nonlinear in grasslands to linear in shrublands. Thus, relatively abrupt (<50 years) shifts in growth form dominance, without changes in resource quantity, can fundamentally alter continental-scale pattern of C inputs and their control by MAP in ways that exceed the direct effects of climate change alone.     

Soil carbon storage under simulated climate change is mediated by plant functional type

The stability of soil organic matter (SOM) pools exposed to elevated CO₂ and warming has not been evaluated adequately in long‐term experiments and represents a substantial source of uncertainty in predicting ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. We conducted a 6‐year experiment combining free‐air CO₂ enrichment (FACE, 550 ppm) and warming (+2 °C) to evaluate changes in SOM accumulation in native Australian grassland. In this system, competitive interactions appear to favor C₄ over C₃ species under FACE and warming. We therefore investigated the role of plant functional type (FT) on biomass and SOM responses to the long‐term treatments by carefully sampling soil under patches of C₃‐ and C₄‐dominated vegetation. We used physical fractionation to quantify particulate organic matter (POM) and long‐term incubation to assess potential decomposition rates. Aboveground production of C₄ grasses increased in response to FACE, but total root biomass declined. Across treatments, C : N ratios were higher in leaves, roots and POM of C₄ vegetation. CO₂ and temperature treatments interacted with FT to influence SOM, and especially POM, such that soil carbon was increased by warming under C₄ vegetation, but not in combination with elevated CO₂. Potential decomposition rates increased in response to FACE and decreased with warming, possibly owing to treatment effects on soil moisture and microbial community composition. Decomposition was also inversely correlated with root N concentration, suggesting increased microbial demand for older, N‐rich SOM in treatments with low root N inputs. This research suggests that C₃–C₄ vegetation responses to future climate conditions will strongly influence SOM storage in temperate grasslands.     

The rapid spread of invasive Eurasian Collared Doves Streptopelia decaocto in the continental USA follows human‐altered habitats

Understanding factors related to the range expansion trajectory of a successful invasive species may provide insights into environmental variables that favour additional expansion or guide monitoring and survey efforts for this and other invasive species. We examined the relationship of presence and abundance of Eurasian Collared Doves Streptopelia decaocto to environmental factors using recent data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to understand factors influencing its expansion into the continental USA. A zero‐inflated Poisson (ZIP) model was used to account for excess zero observations because this species was not observed on the majority of survey routes, despite its large geographical range. Model fit was improved when we included environmental covariates as compared with the null model, which only included distance from the route where this species was first observed. Probability of zero count was positively related to the distance from the first route and road density and was inversely related to minimum temperature and distance to coast. Abundance of the species was positively related to road density and was inversely related to annual precipitation and distance to coast. Random intercept by land‐cover type also improved model fit. Model fit was improved with the ZIP model over the standard Poisson model, suggesting that presence and abundance of this species are characterized by different environmental factors. However, overall low accuracy of model‐predicted presence/absence and abundance with the independent validation dataset may indicate either that there are other explanatory factors or that there is great uncertainty in the species’ colonization process. Our large‐scale study provides additional evidence that the range expansion of this species tends to follow human‐altered landscapes such as road and agricultural areas as well as responding to general geographical features such as coastlines or thermal clines. Such patterns may hold true for other invasive species and may provide guidelines for monitoring and assessment activities in other invasive taxa.     

Effects of storm frequency on dune vegetation

In the Gulf of Mexico, barrier islands absorb the majority of wind and wave action from storms, which modifies their dune morphology and vegetation dynamics. Storm frequency is predicted to increase as a result of climate change, yet the effects of this change on coastal ecosystems remain poorly understood. Using estimates of plant growth in storm and nonstorm years from long‐term census data describing the dynamics of dune vegetation on St. George Island, FL, we built a first‐order model that predicts how dune communities will respond to a change in storm frequency. It predicts that an increasing frequency of storms will result in a change in the vegetation across the dunes. The fore‐ and interdune communities are predicted to become more similar to one another through the dominance of a small number of common storm‐resilient species. Alternatively, the backdune community is predicted to become more distinct through an increase in rare species that represent primary succession. Finally, the model predicts that many species will not respond to an increase in the number of storms per year in the same manner in which they respond to current storm frequency. This model is beneficial both for the development of more complex approaches to predicting effects of climate change and for informing preventative management techniques.     

Land use and season affect fluxes of CO2, CH4, CO,N2O,H2 and isotopic source signatures in Panama: evidence from nocturnal boundary layer profiles

Conversion of tropical rainforests to pastures and plantations is associated with changes in soil properties and biogeochemical cycling, with implications for carbon cycling and trace gas fluxes. The stable isotopic composition of ecosystem respiration (δ¹³C_R and δ¹⁸O_R) is used in inversion models to quantify regional patterns of CO₂ sources and sinks, but models are limited by sparse measurements in tropical regions. We measured soil respiration rates, concentrations of CO₂, CH₄, CO, N₂O and H₂ and the isotopic composition of CO₂, CH₄ and H₂ at four heights in the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) above three common land‐use types in central Panama, during dry and rainy seasons. Soil respiration rates were lowest in Plantation (average 3.4 μmol m^?2 s^?1), highest in Pasture (8.3 μmol m^?2 s^?1) and intermediate in Rainforest (5.2 μmol m^?2 s^?1). δ¹³C_R closely reflected land use and increased during the dry season where C₃ vegetation was present. δ¹⁸O_R did not differ by land use but was lower during the rainy than the dry season. CO₂ was correlated with other species in approximately half of the NBL profiles, allowing us to estimate trace gas fluxes that were generally within the range of literature values. The Rainforest soil was a sink for CH₄ but emissions were observed in Pasture and Plantation, especially during the wet season. N₂O emissions were higher in Pasture and Plantation than Rainforest, contrary to expectations. Soil H₂ uptake was highest in Rainforest and was not observable in Pasture and Plantation during the wet season. We observed soil CO uptake during the dry season and emissions during the wet season across land‐use types. This study demonstrated that strong impacts of land‐use change on soil–atmosphere trace gas exchange can be detected in the NBL, and provides useful observational constraints for top‐down and bottom‐up biogeochemistry models.     

REPRODUCTIVE TOURISM IN ARGENTINA: CLINIC ACCREDITATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSUMERS,HEALTH PROFESSIONALS AND POLICY MAKERS

A subcategory of medical tourism, reproductive tourism has been the subject of much public and policy debate in recent years. Specific concerns include: the exploitation of individuals and communities, access to needed health care services, fair allocation of limited resources, and the quality and safety of services provided by private clinics. To date, the focus of attention has been on the thriving medical and reproductive tourism sectors in Asia and Eastern Europe; there has been much less consideration given to more recent ‘players’ in Latin America, notably fertility clinics in Chile, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. In this paper, we examine the context‐specific ethical and policy implications of private Argentinean fertility clinics that market reproductive services via the internet. Whether or not one agrees that reproductive services should be made available as consumer goods, the fact is that they are provided as such by private clinics around the world. We argue that basic national regulatory mechanisms are required in countries such as Argentina that are marketing fertility services to local and international publics. Specifically, regular oversight of all fertility clinics is essential to ensure that consumer information is accurate and that marketed services are safe and effective. It is in the best interests of consumers, health professionals and policy makers that the reproductive tourism industry adopts safe and responsible medical practices.     

Biological and Statistical Errors Make Inferences Circumspect: Response to Bender and Weisenberger

ABSTRACT Bender and Weisenberger (2005) reported that desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, USA, were primarily limited by rainfall. However, they failed to mention, or were unaware, that persistent long-term predator control was used to enhance population growth at SANWR. Additionally, lamb:female ratios were collected throughout the year, rather than dates typically associated with assessing recruitment, and therefore influence of precipitation on lamb recruitment was unknown. Finally, model predictions forwarded by Bender and Weisenberger (2005), that carrying capacity of SANWR is zero when annual rainfall is <28.2 cm, were not supported by data, nor were their model results properly interpreted. The coefficient of determination value of 88.9% for the relationship between population size and current year's precipitation was primarily a function of serial correlation between successive years in population data, with current year's precipitation accounting for only 3.8% of this value. This suggests that precipitation was a weak predictor of population increase. These errors in concert make biological inferences reported in Bender and Weisenberger (2005) of limited value.