Catastrophic disturbance, logging and the ecology of mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla King): grounds for listing a major tropical timber species in CITES

Recent debate on whether or not mahogany ( Swietenia macrophylla King) is threatened by the international timber trade has focused on the breadth of its range and estimates of the remaining stock of mahogany trees. These data are inadequate to reveal the status of mahogany populations, both because they are incomplete in areal extent and because they do not reveal population parameters such as the existence or density of young trees smaller than commercial size. However, there is sufficient information on the regeneration ecology of mahogany to indicate that under natural conditions this species regenerates in essentially even-aged stands after catastrophic disturbances destroy many or most trees, and, in the case of fires and flooding, saplings and seedlings as well. Adult mahoganies tend to survive these events, and regenerate by shedding seed onto the resulting gaps or clearings. This ecological strategy makes mahogany vulnerable to logging, first because juvenile mahoganies are not found in the understorey, and secondly because logging operations shortcircuit mahogany regeneration processes by selectively removing almost all mahogany seed sources while leaving standing competing vegetation of other species. Listing of mahogany in CITES Appendix II could provide both a mechanism to fill in gaps in information and an incentive to change current practices in favour of silvicultural management to provide for regeneration of this valuable timber species in forests subjected to logging.     

Improved two‐stage group sequential procedures for testing a secondary endpoint after the primary endpoint achieves significance

In two‐stage group sequential trials with a primary and a secondary endpoint, the overall type I error rate for the primary endpoint is often controlled by an α‐level boundary, such as an O'Brien‐Fleming or Pocock boundary. Following a hierarchical testing sequence, the secondary endpoint is tested only if the primary endpoint achieves statistical significance either at an interim analysis or at the final analysis. To control the type I error rate for the secondary endpoint, this is tested using a Bonferroni procedure or any α‐level group sequential method. In comparison with marginal testing, there is an overall power loss for the test of the secondary endpoint since a claim of a positive result depends on the significance of the primary endpoint in the hierarchical testing sequence. We propose two group sequential testing procedures with improved secondary power: the improved Bonferroni procedure and the improved Pocock procedure. The proposed procedures use the correlation between the interim and final statistics for the secondary endpoint while applying graphical approaches to transfer the significance level from the primary endpoint to the secondary endpoint. The procedures control the familywise error rate (FWER) strongly by construction and this is confirmed via simulation. We also compare the proposed procedures with other commonly used group sequential procedures in terms of control of the FWER and the power of rejecting the secondary hypothesis. An example is provided to illustrate the procedures.     

Individualistic responses of forest herb traits to environmental change

• Intraspecific trait variation (ITV; i.e. variability in mean and/or distribution of plant attribute values within species) can occur in response to multiple drivers. Environmental change and land‐use legacies could directly alter trait values within species but could also affect them indirectly through changes in vegetation cover. Increasing variability in environmental conditions could lead to more ITV, but responses might differ among species. Disentangling these drivers on ITV is necessary to accurately predict plant community responses to global change.
• We planted herb communities into forest soils with and without a recent history of agriculture. Soils were collected across temperate European regions, while the 15 selected herb species had different colonizing abilities and affinities to forest habitat. These mesocosms (384) were exposed to two‐level full‐factorial treatments of warming, nitrogen addition and illumination. We measured plant height and specific leaf area (SLA).
• For the majority of species, mean plant height increased as vegetation cover increased in response to light addition, warming and agricultural legacy. The coefficient of variation (CV) for height was larger in fast‐colonizing species. Mean SLA for vernal species increased with warming, while light addition generally decreased mean SLA for shade‐tolerant species. Interactions between treatments were not important predictors.
• Environmental change treatments influenced ITV, either via increasing vegetation cover or by affecting trait values directly. Species’ ITV was individualistic, i.e. species responded to different single resource and condition manipulations that benefited their growth in the short term. These individual responses could be important for altered community organization after a prolonged period.

     

Management of ecosystem services in mountain forests: Review of indicators and value functions for model based multi-criteria decision analysis

The main ecosystem services (ES) central European mountain forests provide are: protection against gravitational hazards, timber production, recreation, biodiversity conservation and carbon storage, which are all in high demand. These demands make managing mountain forests a challenging task, involving manifold synergies and conflicts between the different ES. There is therefore an urgent need for appropriate concepts and tools for support decisions in forest management and planning (FMP) to take into consideration all ES and to manage the wide variety of information types, parameters and uncertainties involved in assessing the sustainability of ES. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides a suitable set of methods for sustainability evaluations. In this study sustainability means the persistent fulfilment of the required ES. To address all the phases of the FMP process, MCDA and forest models should be applied together, with indicators providing the main interfaces to combine them. This paper aims to: i) review assessment approaches in order to select appropriate and widely accepted indicators for measuring and assessing the effects of different silvicultural management alternatives on forest ES, and ii) present additional standardisation approaches (value functions) for each indicator. Standardisations are necessary to make the different ES comparable and to study synergies and trade-offs between different management objectives in MCDA. The main ES in central European mountain regions are considered, with a clear focus on those indicators that are directly derivable from forest model outputs and that can refer to sustainable forest management practices. The scales considered are that of the single forest stand and of the larger forest management unit. A holistic indicator-based analysis framework for FMP in mountain forests can be built using the indicators and value functions described. The influence of different management alternatives on ES can then be evaluated, taking into consideration the instruments and information on forest management (forest models, inventory) available. All indicators are selected according to existing and approved approaches that only require data that is normally available in operational forest management. The framework can thus be an important element in developing a decision support system for FMP in mountain forests.     

药物组合物封闭式权利要求的解读与侵权判定 ——由最高人民法院（2012)民提字第10号判决案例谈起

从最高人民法院的一个典型案例出发，探讨药物组合物封闭式权利要求保护范围的解读及其专利侵权判定标准，比较其他国家 的相关规定和判例，并对药物组合物封闭式权利要求的专利授权、确权审查、侵权判定以及申请文件撰写技巧提出见解，以供借鉴和参考。     

Livestock-driven land use change to model species distributions: Egyptian vulture as a case study

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict species ranges and their shifts under future scenarios of global environmental change (GEC). SDMs are thus incorporating key drivers of GEC (e.g. climate, land use) to improve predictions of species’ habitat suitability (i.e. as an indicator of species occurrence). Yet, most SDMs incorporating land use only consider dominant land cover types, largely ignoring other key aspects of land use such as land management intensity and livestock. We developed SDMs including main land use components (i.e. land cover, livestock and its management intensity) to assess their relative importance in shaping habitat suitability for the Egyptian vulture, an endangered raptor linked to livestock presence. We modelled current and future (2020 and 2050) habitat suitability for this vulture using an organism-centred approach. This allowed us to account for basic species’ habitat needs (i.e. nesting cliff) while gaining insight into our variables of interest (i.e. livestock and land cover). Once nest-site requirements were fulfilled, land use variables (i.e. openland and sheep and goat density) were the main factors determining species’ habitat suitability. Current suitable area could decrease by up to 6.81% by 2050 under scenarios with rapid economic growth but no focus on environmental conservation and rural development. Local solutions to environmental sustainability and rural development could double current habitat suitability by 2050. Land use is expected to play a key role in determining Egyptian vulture's distribution through land cover change but also through changes in livestock management (i.e. species and stocking density). Change in stocking densities (sheep and goats/km²) becomes thus an indicator of habitat suitability for this vulture in our study area. Abandonment of agro-pastoral practises (i.e. below ∼15–20 sheep and goats/km²) will negatively influence the species distribution. Nonetheless, livestock densities above these values will not further increase habitat suitability. Given the widespread impacts of livestock on ecosystems, the role of livestock and its management intensity in SDMs for other (non-livestock-related) species should be further explored.