A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Comparison of the functional and numerical responses of resistant versus non-resistant populations of the copepod Acartia hudsonica fed the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium tamarense

The functional and numerical responses of grazers are key pieces of information in predicting and modeling predator–prey interactions. It has been demonstrated that exposure to toxic algae can lead to evolved resistance in grazer populations. However, the influence of resistance on the functional and numerical response of grazers has not been studied to date. Here, we compared the functional and numerical responses of populations of the copepod Acartia hudsonica that vary in their degree of resistance to the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium tamarense. In common environment experiments carried out after populations had been grown under identical conditions for several generations, female copepods were offered solutions containing different concentrations of either toxic A. tamarense or the non-toxic green flagellate Tetraselmis sp. ranging from 25 to 500 μgC L⁻¹, and ingestion and egg production rates were measured. Throughout most of the range of concentrations of the toxic diet, copepod populations that had been historically exposed to toxic blooms of Alexandrium exhibited significantly higher ingestion and egg production rates than populations that had little or no exposure to these blooms. In contrast, there were no significant differences between populations in ingestion or egg production for the non-toxic diet. Hence, the between population differences in functional and numerical response to A. tamarense were indeed related to resistance. We suggest that the effect of grazer toxin resistance should be incorporated in models of predator and toxic prey interactions. The potential effects of grazer toxin resistance in the development and control of Alexandrium blooms are illustrated here with a simple simulation exercise.     

Reproductive activity and physiological status of the calanoid copepods Calanus helgolandicus and Calanoides carinatus under food-limiting conditions

The reproductive activity and the physiological state of the calanoid copepods Calanus helgolandicus and Calanoides carinatus were investigated off the coast of NW Spain during autumn to evaluate the effect of short food resources on both populations. Phytoplankton biomass was low, and neither phytoplankton size distribution nor composition was suitable to support high reproductive rates. Accordingly, egg production rates (EPR) were much lower than maximum rates for both species, pointing to food limitation. The reproductive index (RI), which represents the proportion of females with mature gonads, was < 50% at each of the three zones into which the sampling area was divided (coast, shelf and ocean). Potential recruitment rates were very low except at some nearshore stations, where the highest concentrations of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), diatoms, dinoflagellates and large cells were found. EPR of C. helgolandicus and C. carinatus were correlated with phytoplankton biomass and unaffected by temperature. Phytoplankton carbon ingestion explained ca. 50% of the variability in EPR for both species. At most of the stations, herbivory was insufficient to cover the carbon requirements for reproduction and respiration, so females probably fed on heterotrophic prey to meet their demands. However, given the low fecundity observed, this omnivorous diet did not seem to be optimum for reproduction, and a severe food limitation is thus suggested. Furthermore, the high C/N values measured point to a notable lipid storage, but given the low EPR found, lipid reserves were probably invested into female maintenance rather than into gonad maturation. C. helgolandicus and C. carinatus populations did not mirror phytoplankton biomass distribution, but they correlated well when considering only copepodites V (CV). The CV could be preparing for the overwintering, storing lipid reserves to ensure a successful diapause, and they could also be advected by the poleward current detected during the study. Females showed a diel feeding rhythm, with highest ingestion rates during night. From our results, it follows that C. helgolandicus and C. carinatus females did not perform diel vertical migrations. We suggest that this behaviour is likely due to the food-limiting conditions, which make it more advantageous to remain at the surface during daytime.     

Host location in Oomyzus gallerucae (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), an egg parasitoid of the elm leaf beetle Xanthogaleruca luteola (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Eggs of the elm leaf beetle Xanthogaleruca luteola are often heavily attacked by the chalcidoid wasp Oomyzus gallerucae. We studied the chemical signals mediating interactions between the egg parasitoid, its host, and the plant Ulmus campestris. Olfactometer bioassays with O. gallerucae showed that volatiles of the host-plant complex attract the parasitoid. In order to determine the source of attractive volatiles within this host-plant-complex, we tested separately the effect of odours of eggs, gravid elm leaf beetle females, faeces of the beetles and elm twigs (with undamaged leaves and leaves damaged either mechanically or by feeding of the beetles). Odours of faeces of the elm leaf beetle were attractive, whereas neither volatiles from eggs nor from gravid females acted as attractants. Volatiles from undamaged or damaged plants did not elicit a positive reaction in O. gallerucae, whereas volatiles from feeding-damaged plants onto which host eggs had been deposited were attractive. This latter result suggests that it is not feeding but deposition of host eggs onto elm leaves that induces the production of plant volatiles attractive to the egg parasitoid. Investigations of the search patterns of O. gallerucae within the habitat by laboratory bioassays revealed that the egg parasitoid encounters host eggs by chance. Contact kairomones from faeces were demonstrated to be important in microhabitat acceptance, while contact kairomones isolated from the host eggs are relevant for host recognition. Received: 12 February 1997 / Accepted: 29 April 1997     

Hierarchical Perception of Stimuli During Case Construction in the Bagworm Moth Eumeta crameri (Lepidoptera: Psychidae)

We studied case construction behavior of bagworm moth, Eumeta crameri (Lepidoptera: Psychidac) in the host plant, Acacia nilotica, at two sites. At the time of the study, Site A had 1-year-old A. nilotica saplings only, whereas Site B had full grown trees. The larva of bagworm moth used either thorns or cut-twigs or both as the materials for building its case. It renovated its case three times, and during each instance it increased the volume of its case by replacing older thorns or cut-twigs by newer and longer ones. However, it exhibited a spectacular predilection for thorns, irrespective of the sites, during the first-instar stage of its development. Thereafter, at Site A it used exclusively cut-twigs, whereas at Site B it preferably used thorns provided they were available in the range of the required length and within the threshold distance. It appears that the bagworm has an ability to process thorn length and distance signals hierarchically to fulfill its priority, that is, case building. Thus it optimizes time and energy expenditures during the period of its larval growth leading to pupation by toggling its preference between thorns and cut-twigs.     

Museum egg collections as stores of long-term phenological data

Museum collections hold large amounts of data on collecting dates and localities of eggs collected over the past 150 years. Egg collections hold the longest available time series for a wide range of bird species on a large spatial scale. Using data for two British species I investigate whether egg collection data can be used in phenological research. A method is presented allowing laying dates to be estimated from collecting dates. Problems and biases in the data are highlighted. Both the dipper and song thrush have started laying earlier over the past 150 years. The advance in laying is significantly correlated with mean March temperature. Received: 25 October 2000 / Revised: 14 May 2001 / Accepted: 16 May 2001     

Lysine-derived cross-links in the egg shell membrane

Egg shell membrane protein contains significant quantities of the lysine-derived aldehyde, allysine, and its aldol condensation product. NaB³H₄ reduction followed by alkaline hydrolysis of purified protein revealed that there were six residues/1000 of both allysine and the reduced aldol while only traces of desmosine and isodesmosine were detected. The amino acid composition of the membrane protein did not resemble that of mammalian elastin.     

Rapid,nonradioactive, and quantitative method to analyze zona pellucida modifications in single mouse eggs

A rapid, nonradioactive method to monitor the ZP2 to ZP2_f conversion in the zona pellucida of single mouse eggs has been developed. This assay is based on the chemiluminescent detection of biotinylated ZP2 and ZP2_f following electrophoresis under reducing conditions and electrophoretic transfer to Immobilon P. This method is about 10 times faster and detects similar extents of ZP2 to ZP2_f conversion following A23187-induced egg activation, when compared to the commonly used radioiodination procedures. © 1994 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Somatic polyploidy in extraembryonic membranes of the snake,Elaphe guttata

Summary Video-densitometric DNA measurements of Feulgenstained tissues of 42 day old eggs of the corn snake,Elaphe g. guttata (Columbridae, Serpentes), revealed a basic DNA content of 2C=2.17 pg, with somatic polyploidy in the allantois, the chorioallontois, the yolk sac, and other extraembryonic membranes. The maximum value determined was 128C (in binucleate cells 2×128C) at the distal pole of the egg. This is the first report of somatic polyploidy in a snake, and one of the first in reptiles in general.