Models of annual cycles in lentic water bodies

A discussion of mathematical modelling of water quality, including a summary of the parameters considered, a comparison of the two major model types (stochastic and deterministic) and a review of the validation process, is presented. A water quality model currently being developed is discussed and a list of ecological models already developed is given.     

Modelling biome shifts and tree cover change for 2050 in West Africa

Aim Africa is expected to face severe changes in climatic conditions. Our objectives are: (1) to model trends and the extent of future biome shifts that may occur by 2050, (2) to model a trend in tree cover change, while accounting for human impact, and (3) to evaluate uncertainty in future climate projections. Location West Africa. Methods We modelled the potential future spatial distribution of desert, grassland, savanna, deciduous and evergreen forest in West Africa using six bioclimatic models. Future tree cover change was analysed with generalized additive models (GAMs). We used climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) and included human population density and fire intensity to model tree cover. Consensus projections were derived via weighted averages to: (1) reduce inter‐model variability, and (2) describe trends extracted from different GCM projections. Results The strongest predicted effect of climate change was on desert and grasslands, where the bioclimatic envelope of grassland is projected to expand into the desert by an area of 2 million km². While savannas are predicted to contract in the south (by 54 ± 22 × 10⁴ km²), deciduous and evergreen forest biomes are expected to expand (64 ± 13 × 10⁴ km² and 77 ± 26 × 10⁴ km²). However, uncertainty due to different GCMs was particularly high for the grassland and the evergreen biome shift. Increasing tree cover (1–10%) was projected for large parts of Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo, but a decrease was projected for coastal areas (1–20%). Furthermore, human impact negatively affected tree cover and partly changed the direction of the projected change from increase to decrease. Main conclusions Considering climate change alone, the model results of potential vegetation (biomes) show a ‘greening’ trend by 2050. However, the modelled effects of human impact suggest future forest degradation. Thus, it is essential to consider both climate change and human impact in order to generate realistic future tree cover projections.     

Magnetoliposomes

The adsorption of different types of phosphatidylglycerols onto magnetizable solid particles is studied. The super-paramagnetic magnetite spheres used have an average diameter of only 14 nm and are stabilized by lauric acid to keep them in solution. During incubation and dialysis of this water-based magnetic fluid in the presence of preformed sonicated phospholipid vescles, magnetoliposomes are formed which are captured from solution with high efficiency by high-gradient magnetophoresis. Support for the bilayer character of the phospholipid coat is derived from both theoretical calculations and experimental data. Phospholipids which form the inner monolayer are adsorbed very quickly with their charged headgroup orientated towards the iron oxide surface. The high-affinity character of the binding is reflected in the adsorption isotherms and is further illustrated by their non-extractability with high concentrations of Tween 20. The outer layer assembles through interaction with the exposed hydrocarbon chains. As compared to the inner layer, the phospholipids adsorb at a much slower rate and are displaced by Tween 20 concentrations which usually disrupt conventional membranes. The adsorption isotherms for this layer obey the Langmuir expression. The affinity constants, derived from them, progressively increase as the hydrophobic nature of the phosphatidylglycerols is more pronounced.Abbreviations DXPG di-fatty acyl form of phosphatdylglycerol where X=L, Lauroyl - M myristoyl - C _15:0 pentadecanoyl - O oleoyl. TES, 2-((tris(hydroxymethyl)methyl)amino)ethanesulfonic acid     

On a Mixed-Type Randomized Rule for Selecting Superior Binomial Models

We propose a new class of selection rules for selecting superior models from finite Binomial models. This new class of rules extends the classes of classical rules and shows its superiority to the classical selection rules by some Monte Carlo results. This new class of rules is easier and more flexible to apply than these known classical rules.     

Demography in stochastic environments. I. Exact distributions of age structure

The steady state distribution of age structure is studied for populations with two age classes and stochastic vital rates. For a serially uncorrelated dichotomic vital rate the distribution of age structure is found analytically to be a singular steplike function; outside a specific region of vital rate values the singular function crosses a threshold to a smooth function. For a vital rate following a correlated two state Markov process the joint distributions of age structure and environment are found analytically to be singular steplike functions; again a threshold marks a transition to a smooth function. For fecundities which are serially uncorrelated but continuously distributed the age structure distribution is obtained as a smooth analytic function for all parameter values. These explicit results have applications to studies of age structure and average growth rate.     

Land use and climate influences on waterbirds in the Prairie Potholes

Aim We examined the influences of regional climate and land‐use variables on mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), blue‐winged teal (Anas discors), ruddy duck (Oxyura jamaicensis) and pied‐billed grebe (Podilymbus podiceps) abundances to inform conservation planning in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Location The US portion of Bird Conservation Region 11 (US‐BCR11, the Prairie Potholes), which encompasses six states within the United States: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa. Methods We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (NABBS), the National Land Cover Data Set, and the National Climatic Data Center to model the effects of environmental variables on waterbird abundance. We evaluated land‐use covariates at three logarithmically related spatial scales (1000, 10,000 and 100,000 ha), and constructed hierarchical spatial count models a priori using information from published habitat associations. Model fitting was performed using a hierarchical modelling approach within a Bayesian framework. Results Models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset, indicating that the influence of spatial scale was small. Both land‐use and climate variables contributed strongly to predicting waterbird abundance in US‐BCR11. The strongest positive influences on waterbird abundance were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales, herbaceous vegetation and precipitation variables. Other variables that we included in our models did not appear to influence waterbirds in this study. Main conclusions Understanding the relationships of waterbird abundance to climate and land use may allow us to make predictions of future distribution and abundance as environmental factors change. Additionally, results from this study can suggest locations where conservation and management efforts should be focused.     

Environmental and human factors influencing rare plant local occurrence, extinction and persistence: a 115-year study in the Mediterranean region

Aim Assessing whether environmental and human factors influenced the spatial distribution and the dynamics of regionally rare plant species since the late nineteenth century, and whether these spatial and temporal patterns of rare species occurrences differ according to their chorology (level of endemism and biogeographic affinity). Location An area extending over 6250 km² in the French Mediterranean Region. Methods We used two botanical surveys achieved in 1886 and in 2001, and considered species rare if occurring in only one or two sites in the study area. Each rare species was assigned to a group of endemism level (restricted endemic, non‐endemic), and of biogeographic affinity (Mediterranean, South/Central European, Mountain, Eurosiberian). A 1 × 1 km grid was applied to the study zone. Generalized linear models were developed to study the spatial distribution and the fate of rare species occurrences (local extinction vs. local persistence between 1886 and 2001), as a function of environmental and human variables. Multivariate analyses were used to test whether the spatial distribution and the fate of rare species occurrences differed according to their chorology. Results In 2001, rare species as a whole tended to occur at higher altitude, in zones dominated by semi‐natural open habitats, and where cultivated area had decreased in the last 30 years. Between 1886 and 2001, rare species were the most prone to local extinction in zones where human population density, cultivated area and livestock density had increased the most. Between 1886 and 2001, rare species had a higher probability of local persistence in zones of high altitude and steep slope, on basic bedrocks and with low cultivated area. Rare species with Mountain and Eurosiberian affinities occurred in marginal habitats in the study region, i.e. on gneiss‐micaschist bedrocks and at high altitudes, whereas Mediterranean and South/Central European rare species occupied more varied environmental conditions. Between 1886 and 2001, Eurosiberian rare species showed high rates of local extinction whereas Mediterranean rare species had a significantly higher probability of local persistence. Restricted endemic species mostly occurred in zones of high slope, low human population density, and where cultivated area had decreased in the last 30 years. Occurrences of restricted endemics remained significantly stable between 1886 and 2001. Main conclusions Environmental and land‐use changes that occurred over the twentieth century in the Mediterranean Basin had significant impacts on the spatial distribution and on the long‐term dynamics of rare species occurrences. Urbanization and recent agriculture intensification, occurring mainly in coastal plains and littoral zones, caused most local extinctions of rare species from 1886 to 2001. Local populations of Eurosiberian species, which reach their range limits in marginal zones of the Mediterranean, also appear to be highly vulnerable. Conversely, most restricted endemic species occur in habitats with harsh topography and low human disturbance and have a higher potential of local persistence.     

The regulation of mortality and fecundity in Schistosoma mattheei following a single experimental infection in sheep.

The regulation of mortality and fecundity of Schistosoma mattheei in sheep was examined using a series of mathematical models applied to data culled from the literature. Parasite mortality (μ) was found to be an increasing linear function of the magnitude of the initial infection over the ranges of doses examined (200–91, 000 cercariae) where μ = 9.78 × 10⁻³ + 3.476 × 10^−7* infection dose. Parasite fecundity (λ) was found to be inversely related to the duration of the infection. The best fit model for parasite fecundity was one in which fecundity decreased exponentially with time since initial infection, λ = λ₀e^−δ1−r. There was no evidence for density-dependent regulation of fecundity.     

Natural selection. V. How to read the fundamental equations of evolutionary change in terms of information theory

The equations of evolutionary change by natural selection are commonly expressed in statistical terms. Fisher's fundamental theorem emphasizes the variance in fitness. Quantitative genetics expresses selection with covariances and regressions. Population genetic equations depend on genetic variances. How can we read those statistical expressions with respect to the meaning of natural selection? One possibility is to relate the statistical expressions to the amount of information that populations accumulate by selection. However, the connection between selection and information theory has never been compelling. Here, I show the correct relations between statistical expressions for selection and information theory expressions for selection. Those relations link selection to the fundamental concepts of entropy and information in the theories of physics, statistics and communication. We can now read the equations of selection in terms of their natural meaning. Selection causes populations to accumulate information about the environment.