Waterfowl distribution and productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada: tools for conservation planning

Species conservation requires an understanding of the factors and interactions affecting species distribution and behavior, habitat availability and use, and corresponding vital rates at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Opportunities to investigate these relationships across broad geographic regions are rare. We combined long-term waterfowl population surveys, and studies of habitat use and breeding success, to develop models that identify and incorporate these interactions for upland-nesting waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of Canada. Specifically, we used data from the annual Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (1961–2009) at the survey segment level and associated habitat covariates to model and map the long-term average duck density across the Canadian PPR. We analyzed nest location and fate data from approximately 25,000 duck nests found during 3 multi-year nesting studies (1994–2011) to model factors associated with nest survival and habitat selection through the nesting season for the 5 most common upland nesting duck species: mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), gadwall (Mareca strepera), blue-winged teal (Spatula discors), northern shoveler (Spatula clypeata), and northern pintail (Anas acuta). Duck density was highly variable across the Canadian PPR, reflecting positive responses to local wetland area and count, and amounts of cropland and grassland, a regional positive response to latitude, and a negative response to local amounts of tree cover. Nest survival was affected by temporal and spatial variables at multiple scales. Specifically, nest survival demonstrated interactive effects among species, nest initiation date, and nesting cover type and was influenced by relative annual wetness, population density, and surrounding landscape composition at landscape scales, and broad geographic gradients (east-west and north-south). Likewise, species-specific probability of nest habitat selection was influenced by timing of nest initiation, population density, relative annual wetness, herbaceous cover, and tree cover in the surrounding landscape, and location within the Canadian PPR. We combined these models, with estimates of breeding effort (nesting, renesting, and nest attempts) from existing literature, in a stochastic conservation planning model that estimates nest distribution and success given spatiotemporal variation in duck density, habitat availability, and influential covariates. We demonstrate the use of this model by examining various conservation planning scenarios. These models allow estimation of local, landscape, and regional influence of conservation investments and other landscape changes on the productivity of breeding duck populations across the PPR of Canada. These models lay the groundwork for the incorporation of conservation delivery costs for full return-on-investment analyses and scenario analyses of climate, habitat, and land use change in regional and continental population models.     

Relating mesocarnivore relative abundance to anthropogenic land‐use with a hierarchical spatial count model

There is growing need to develop models of spatial patterns in animal abundance, yet comparatively few examples of such models exist. This is especially true in situations where the abundance of one species may inhibit that of another, such as the intensively‐farmed landscape of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the central United States, where waterfowl production is largely constrained by mesocarnivore nest predation. We used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to relate the distribution of various land‐cover types to the relative abundances of four mesocarnivores in the PPR: coyote Canis latrans, raccoon Procyon lotor, red fox Vulpes vulpes, and striped skunk Mephitis mephitis. We developed models for each species at multiple spatial resolutions (41.4 km², 10.4 km², and 2.6 km²) to address different ecological and management‐related questions. Model results for each species were similar irrespective of resolution. We found that the amount of row‐crop agriculture was nearly ubiquitous in our best models, exhibiting a positive relationship with relative abundance for each species. The amount of native grassland land‐cover was positively associated with coyote and raccoon relative abundance, but generally absent from models for red fox and skunk. Red fox and skunk were positively associated with each other, suggesting potential niche overlap. We found no evidence that coyote abundance limited that of other mesocarnivore species, as might be expected under a hypothesis of mesopredator release. The relationships between relative abundance and land‐cover types were similar across spatial resolutions. Our results indicated that mesocarnivores in the PPR are most likely to occur in portions of the landscape with large amounts of agricultural land‐cover. Further, our results indicated that track‐survey data can be used in a hierarchical framework to gain inferences regarding spatial patterns in animal relative abundance.     

Evaluating the ability of regional models to predict local avian abundance

Spatial modeling over broad scales can potentially direct conservation efforts to areas with high species-specific abundances. We examined the performance of regional models for predicting bird abundance at spatial scales typically addressed in conservation planning. Specifically, we used point count data on wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and blue-winged warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) from 2 time periods (1995–1998 and 2006–2007) to evaluate the ability of regional models derived via Bayesian hierarchical techniques to predict bird abundance. We developed models for each species within Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 23 in the upper midwestern United States at 800-ha, 8,000-ha, and approximately 80,000-ha scales. We obtained count data from the Breeding Bird Survey and land cover data from the National Land Cover Dataset (1992). We evaluated predictions from the best models, as defined by an information-theoretic criterion, using point count data collected within an ecological subregion of BCR 23 at 131 count stations in the 1990s and again in 2006–2007. Competing (Deviance Information Criteria <5) blue-winged warbler models accounted for 67% of the variability and suggested positive associations with forest edge and proportion of forest at the 8,000-ha scale, and negative associations with forest patch area (800 ha) and wetness (800 ha and 80,000 ha). The regional model performed best for blue-winged warbler predicted abundances from point counts conducted in Iowa during 1995–1996 (r_s = 0.57; P = 0.14), the survey period that most closely aligned with the time period of data used for regional model construction. Wood thrush models exhibited positive correlations with point count data for all survey areas and years combined (r_s = 0.58, P ≤ 0.001). In comparison, blue-winged warbler models performed worse as time increased between the point count surveys and vintage of the model building data (r_s = 0.03, P = 0.92 for Iowa and r_s = 0.13, P = 0.51 for all areas, 2006–2007), likely related to the ephemeral nature of their preferred early successional habitat. Species abundance and sensitivity to changing habitat conditions seems to be an important factor in determining the predictive ability of regional models. Hierarchical models can be a useful tool for concentrating efforts at the scale of management units and should be one of many tools used by land managers, but we caution that the utility of such models may decrease over time for species preferring relatively ephemeral habitats if model inputs are not updated accordingly. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Local and cross‐seasonal associations of climate and land use with abundance of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus

Quantifying how climate and land use factors drive population dynamics at regional scales is complex because it depends on the extent of spatial and temporal synchrony among local populations, and the integration of population processes throughout a species’ annual cycle. We modeled weekly, site‐specific summer abundance (1994–2013) of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus at sites across Illinois, USA to assess relative associations of monarch abundance with climate and land use variables during the winter, spring, and summer stages of their annual cycle. We developed negative binomial regression models to estimate monarch abundance during recruitment in Illinois as a function of local climate, site‐specific crop cover, and county‐level herbicide (glyphosate) application. We also incorporated cross‐seasonal covariates, including annual abundance of wintering monarchs in Mexico and climate conditions during spring migration and breeding in Texas, USA. We provide the first empirical evidence of a negative association between county‐level glyphosate application and local abundance of adult monarchs, particularly in areas of concentrated agriculture. However, this association was only evident during the initial years of the adoption of herbicide‐resistant crops (1994–2003). We also found that wetter and, to a lesser degree, cooler springs in Texas were associated with higher summer abundances in Illinois, as were relatively cool local summer temperatures in Illinois. Site‐specific abundance of monarchs averaged approximately one fewer per site from 2004–2013 than during the previous decade, suggesting a recent decline in local abundance of monarch butterflies on their summer breeding grounds in Illinois. Our results demonstrate that seasonal climate and land use are associated with trends in adult monarch abundance, and our approach highlights the value of considering fine‐resolution temporal fluctuations in population‐level responses to environmental conditions when inferring the dynamics of migratory species.     

GRASSLAND BIRDS NESTING IN HAYLANDS OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN: LANDSCAPE INFLUENCES AND CONSERVATION PRIORITIES

Abstract: To determine the benefits to grassland birds of converting cropland to hayland in southern Saskatchewan, Canada, we quantified the relative nest abundance and success of grassland nesting birds in haylands and the influence landscape variables have on these parameters. We found nests of 26 species of grassland nesting birds, primarily waterfowl and vesper sparrow (Pooecetes gramineus). With the exception of the northern pintail (Anas acuta), few nesting attempts were recorded for species of high priority in the Prairie Pothole Bird Conservation Region. Mayfield nest success for all waterfowl (20 and 13% in 1999 and 2000, respectively) was high relative to previously reported nest success estimates in other habitat types—especially spring-seeded cropland—and was near levels thought to be required to sustain populations (15–20%). Vesper sparrow nest success (39 and 33% in 1999 and 2000, respectively) also was high relative to that reported in other studies. Haying destroyed few nests as wet weather delayed operations in 1999 and 2000. More nests may be destroyed by haying in other years as approximately 25% of nests in this study were still active on the long-term average haying date for southern Saskatchewan. Among models we developed to explain waterfowl relative nest abundance, amount of cropland in the surrounding landscape and field area were the most informative. Evidence that a specific set of landscape variables was important to models of waterfowl nest success was equivocal. Landscape variables did not explain variation in vesper sparrow relative nest abundance or nest success. Within our study area, conversion of cropland to hayland appears to provide significant benefits to a variety of grassland species, including some species of high conservation priority (e.g., northern pintail). Grassland species of conservation concern nested less frequently in hayland than in native grassland.     

The influence of climate variability on numbers of three waterbird species in Western Port, Victoria, 1973–2002

Seasonal and annual movements of Australian waterbirds are generally more complex than those of their Northern Hemisphere counterparts, and long-term data are needed to understand their relationships with climatic variables. This paper explores a long-term (1973–2002) set of waterbird counts from coastal Victoria and relates them to climatic data at local and continental scales. Three species (Black Swan Cygnus atratus, White-faced Heron Egretta novaehollandiae and Grey Teal Anas gracilis) were chosen for this analysis. Black Swans have large local breeding populations near the study region; White-faced Herons have smaller local breeding populations and Grey Teal breed extensively in ephemeral inland floodplains, such as those in the Murray-Darling Basin. All showed significant relationships with streamflow, regional rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at appropriate scales and time-lags, with streamflow explaining the most variance. Black Swans showed a strong seasonal cycle in abundance and local climate variables had the greatest influence on the counts. Numbers were positively correlated with streamflow in southern Victoria three to six seasons before each count. Broader-scale climatic patterns were more important for the other two species. Numbers of White-faced Herons were positively correlated with streamflow or rainfall over various parts of Australia seven to nine seasons before each count. Numbers of Grey Teal showed weak seasonal cycles, and were negatively correlated with rainfall in Victoria or the Murray-Darling Basin in the seasons before or during each count, and positively with streamflow in the Murray-Darling Basin 15–18 months before each count.     

The keystone role of anostracans and copepods in European soda pans during the spring migration of waterbirds

1. The European soda pans of the Carpathian Basin provide important stopover sites for several waterbird species. We studied the effect of different invertebrate food types and other characteristics on the habitat choice and distribution of birds on 82 pans (in Hungary, Austria and Serbia) during spring migration. 2. Only three environmental variables proved to be significant determinants of the waterbird communities: pan density (spatial effect) along with the density of Arctodiaptomus spp. and anostracans (local effect). Variance partitioning of the data revealed that aquatic invertebrate food supply (Arctodiaptomus and anostracans) had a greater effect than pan density on the 10 investigated bird species, suggesting a dominant role of species sorting in structuring the communities. Pied avocets (Recurvirostra avosetta) and northern shovelers (Anas clypeata) differed from the other species in their strong association with densities of anostracans (avocet) and Arctodiaptomus (shoveler). 3. Anostracans and microcrustaceans, especially the most frequent Branchinecta orientalis, Arctodiaptomus spinosus and Arctodiaptomus bacillifer, can be regarded as keystone elements of this soda pan habitat because of their bottom‐up role in structuring waterbird assemblages during spring migration.     

Changes in habitat suitability influence non‐breeding distribution of waterbirds in central Europe

Waterbird species have different requirements with respect to their non‐breeding areas, aiming to survive and gain condition during the non‐breeding period. Selection of non‐breeding areas could change over time and space driven by climate change and species habitat requirements. To help explain the mechanism shaping non‐breeding area selection, we provide site‐specific analyses of distributional changes in wintering waterbirds in central Europe, located at the centre of their flyways. We use wintering waterbirds as a highly dynamic model group monitored over a long‐time scale of 50 years (1966–2015). We identified species habitat requirements and changes in habitat use at the level of 733 individual non‐breeding (specifically wintering) sites for 12 waterbird species using citizen‐science monitoring data. We calculated site‐specific mean numbers and estimated site‐specific trends in numbers. The site‐specific approach revealed a general effect of mean winter temperature of site (seven of 12 species), wetland type (all species) and land cover (all species) on site‐specific numbers. We found increasing site‐specific trends in numbers in the northern and/or eastern part of the study area (Mute Swan Cygnus olor, Eurasian Teal Anas crecca, Common Pochard Aythya ferina, Great Cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo and Eurasian Coot Fulica atra). Common Merganser Mergus merganser, Great Cormorant, Grey Heron Ardea cinerea, Common Pochard, Eurasian Coot and Common Moorhen Galinulla chloropus increased their site‐specific numbers on standing industrial waters with traditionally low fish stock. The site‐specific dynamics of bird numbers helped us to identify general preference for sites reducing winter harshness (warmer areas, running waters and more wetlands in the site vicinity), as well as indicating climate‐driven changes in spatial use of wintering sites (northern/north‐eastern range changes and changes in preference for industrial waters). This fine‐scale (site‐specific) approach can reveal large‐scale range and distribution shifts driven by climate and environmental changes regardless of the availability of large‐scale datasets.     

Presence of fish affects lake use and breeding success in ducks

Several previous studies indicate that presence of fish has negative effects on waterbirds breeding on lakes, owing either to competition for common invertebrate prey or fish predation on ducklings/chicks. However, others have reported results to the contrary and it remains unresolved what factors trigger, inhibit, and modulate fish–waterbird interactions. The present study was designed to test the effect of fish presence per se, with a minimum of variation in possibly confounding environmental variables. Thus, after stratifying for area, depth, altitude, pH, and total phosphorus we compared 13 lakes with and 12 without fish (mainly pike Esox lucius and perch Perca fluviatilis) with respect to (i) general species richness of waterbirds, (ii) species-specific utilization and breeding success of two dabbling ducks (mallard Anas platyrhynchos and teal Anas crecca) and a diving duck (goldeneye Bucephala clangula). General species richness of waterbirds was higher on fishless lakes. Overall use (bird days) and brood number of teal and goldeneye were higher on fishless lakes. The latter also had more benthic and free-swimming prey invertebrates compared to lakes with fish. Mallard use, mallard brood number, and abundance of emerging insects did not differ between lake groups. Generalized linear models including fish presence as factor and considering seven environmental variables as covariates, confirmed that all waterbird variables except mallard days and broods were negatively correlated to fish presence. There was also a residual positive relationship of lake area on general species richness, teal days, and teal broods. Our data demonstrate a stronger effect of fish presence on diving ducks and small surface feeding ducks than on large surface-feeding ducks. We argue that observed patterns were caused by fish predation on ducks rather than by fish–duck competition for common prey.     

Spatial autocorrelation as a tool for identifying the geographical patterns of aphid annual abundance

Abstract 1 A spatial autocorrelation analysis was undertaken to investigate the spatial structure of annual abundance for the pest aphid Myzus persicae collected in suction traps distributed across north‐west Europe. 2 The analysis was applied at two different scales. The Moran index was used to estimate the degree of spatial autocorrelation at all sites within the study area (global level). The contributions of each site to the global index were identified by the use of a local indicator of spatial autocorrelation (LISA). A hierarchical cluster analysis was undertaken to highlight differences between groups of resulting correlograms. 3 Similarity between traps was shown to occur over large geographical distances, suggesting an impact of phenomena such as climatic gradients or land use types. 4 The presence of outliers and zones of similarity (hot‐spots) and of dissimilarity (cold‐spots) were identified indicating a strong impact of local effects. 5 Several groups of traps characterized by similarities in their local spatial structure (correlograms, value of Moran's I_i) also had similar values for land use variables (the area occupied by agricultural zones, forest and sea). 6 It is concluded that trap data can provide information about Myzus persicae that is representative of large geographical areas. Thus, trap data can be used to estimate the aerial abundance of this species, even if the suction traps are not regularly and densely distributed.     

Cross‐scale effects of spruce budworm outbreaks on boreal warblers in eastern Canada

Insect outbreaks are major natural disturbance events that affect communities of forest birds, either directly by affecting the food supply or indirectly by changing the vegetation composition of forest canopies. An examination of correlations between measures of bird and insect abundance across different spatial scales and over varying time lag effects may provide insight into underlying mechanisms. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to assess correlations between counts of eight warbler species from the Breeding Bird Survey in eastern Canada, 1966 to 2009, with the presence of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) at immediate local scales and time‐lagged regional scales, as measured by extent of defoliation on host tree species. Budworm‐associated species Cape May warbler (Setophaga tigrina), bay‐breasted warbler (Setophaga castanea), and Tennessee warbler (Oreothlypis peregrina) responded strongly and positively to both local and regional effects. In contrast, non‐budworm‐associated species, Blackburnian warbler (Setophaga fusca), magnolia warbler (Setophaga magnolia), Canada warbler (Cardellina canadensis), black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), and black‐throated green warbler (Setophaga virens), only responded to regional effects in a manner that varied across eastern Canada. The complex responses by forest birds to insect outbreaks involve both increased numerical responses to food supply and to longer term responses to changes in forest structure and composition. These effects can vary across spatial scales and be captured in hierarchical population models, which can serve to disentangle common trends from data when examining drivers of population dynamics like forest management or climate change.     

Effects of Large-Scale Predator Reduction on Nest Success of Upland Nesting Ducks

ABSTRACT Population growth for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and presumably other upland nesting ducks, in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States and Canada is most sensitive to nest success, and nest success is most strongly influenced by predation. We evaluated the efficacy of reducing predator populations to improve nest success of upland nesting ducks on township-sized (93.2 km²) management units in eastern North Dakota, USA, during 2005–2007. We monitored 7,489 nests on 7 trapped and 5 nontrapped sites. Trappers annually removed an average of 245 predators per trapped site, and we found nest success to be 1.4–1.9 times greater on trapped sites than nontrapped sites, depending on year. Nest success was greater on both trapped and nontrapped sites when compared with a study conducted in the same areas in the mid-1990s, likely because of changes in red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and coyote (Canis latrans) population dynamics. Nests initiated midseason had higher daily survival rates (DSR) than those initiated earlier or later in the season. Daily survival rates for nests in the middle of the nesting cycle were higher than for nests that were early in laying or late in incubation. Nests near the periphery of trapped sites had slightly higher DSRs than nests in the center of trapped sites. Predator reduction at the township scale provides managers with an effective tool to improve nest success at large spatial scales.     

Downscaling land‐use data to provide global 30″ estimates of five land‐use classes

Land‐use change is one of the biggest threats to biodiversity globally. The effects of land use on biodiversity manifest primarily at local scales which are not captured by the coarse spatial grain of current global land‐use mapping. Assessments of land‐use impacts on biodiversity across large spatial extents require data at a similar spatial grain to the ecological processes they are assessing. Here, we develop a method for statistically downscaling mapped land‐use data that combines generalized additive modeling and constrained optimization. This method was applied to the 0.5° Land‐use Harmonization data for the year 2005 to produce global 30″ (approx. 1 km²) estimates of five land‐use classes: primary habitat, secondary habitat, cropland, pasture, and urban. The original dataset was partitioned into 61 bio‐realms (unique combinations of biome and biogeographical realm) and downscaled using relationships with fine‐grained climate, land cover, landform, and anthropogenic influence layers. The downscaled land‐use data were validated using the PREDICTS database and the geoWiki global cropland dataset. Application of the new method to all 61 bio‐realms produced global fine‐grained layers from the 2005 time step of the Land‐use Harmonization dataset. Coarse‐scaled proportions of land use estimated from these data compared well with those estimated in the original datasets (mean R²: 0.68 ± 0.19). Validation with the PREDICTS database showed the new downscaled land‐use layers improved discrimination of all five classes at PREDICTS sites (P < 0.0001 in all cases). Additional validation of the downscaled cropping layer with the geoWiki layer showed an R² improvement of 0.12 compared with the Land‐use Harmonization data. The downscaling method presented here produced the first global land‐use dataset at a spatial grain relevant to ecological processes that drive changes in biodiversity over space and time. Integrating these data with biodiversity measures will enable the reporting of land‐use impacts on biodiversity at a finer resolution than previously possible. Furthermore, the general method presented here could be useful to others wishing to downscale similarly constrained coarse‐resolution data for other environmental variables.     

Abundances of waterbird species on lakes in Argentine Patagonia as a function of season,lake size and the presence of mink

Regular counts from 2005 to 2009 were made of the waterbirds inhabiting lakes and ponds in Lanín National Park in the southwestern part of Neuquén Province, Argentina, a landscape dominated by Andean–Patagonian wetlands and forests. Bird surveys conducted on 21 wetland areas detected 8,311 individuals belonging to 27 species from 9 families. The most abundant and frequent species were Ashy-headed Goose (Chloephaga poliocephala), Speckled Teal (Anas flavirostris), Red-gartered Coot (Fulica armillata) and White-winged Coot (Fulica leucoptera). The presence and abundance of bird species with respect to wetland surface area was examined. Small lakes (<100 ha) had higher numbers of individuals, but some species such as the Neotropic Cormorant (Phalacrocorax olivaceus), Great Grebe (Podiceps major), Flying Steamer Duck (Tachyeres patachonicus) and Spectacled Duck (Anas specularis) were more abundant at larger lakes. Speckled Teal, Red Shoveler (Anas platalea) and Chiloe Wigeon (A. sibilatrix) were more common in small- and medium-sized lakes. Most waterbird species were found at a smaller percentage of the lakes where mink were present than at mink-free lakes. Although the ponds and lakes studied are protected within the network of this Argentine National Park, such protection is not implemented effectively. Hence, their future conservation faces several potential threats such as American mink expansion, tourism, fishing and hunting. This information could contribute to the development of management guidelines for the effective conservation of Patagonian wetlands.     

Partitioning global change: Assessing the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover for changes in avian distribution

Understanding the relative impact of climate change and land cover change on changes in avian distribution has implications for the future course of avian distributions and appropriate management strategies. Due to the dynamic nature of climate change, our goal was to investigate the processes that shape species distributions, rather than the current distributional patterns. To this end, we analyzed changes in the distribution of Eastern Wood Pewees (Contopus virens) and Red‐eyed Vireos (Vireo olivaceus) from 1997 to 2012 using Breeding Bird Survey data and dynamic correlated‐detection occupancy models. We estimated the local colonization and extinction rates of these species in relation to changes in climate (hours of extreme temperature) and changes in land cover (amount of nesting habitat). We fit six nested models to partition the deviance explained by spatial and temporal components of land cover and climate. We isolated the temporal components of environmental variables because this is the essence of global change. For both species, model fit was significantly improved when we modeled vital rates as a function of spatial variation in climate and land cover. Model fit improved only marginally when we added temporal variation in climate and land cover to the model. Temporal variation in climate explained more deviance than temporal variation in land cover, although both combined only explained 20% (Eastern Wood Pewee) and 6% (Red‐eyed Vireo) of temporal variation in vital rates. Our results showing a significant correlation between initial occupancy and environmental covariates are consistent with biological expectation and previous studies. The weak correlation between vital rates and temporal changes in covariates indicated that we have yet to identify the most relevant components of global change influencing the distributions of these species and, more importantly, that spatially significant covariates are not necessarily driving temporal shifts in avian distributions.     

Landscape variables influence taxonomic and trait composition of insect assemblages in Neotropical savanna streams

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Continental impacts of water development on waterbirds,contrasting two Australian river basins: Global implications for sustainable water use

The world's freshwater biotas are declining in diversity, range and abundance, more than in other realms, with human appropriation of water. Despite considerable data on the distribution of dams and their hydrological effects on river systems, there are few expansive and long analyses of impacts on freshwater biota. We investigated trends in waterbird communities over 32 years, (1983–2014), at three spatial scales in two similarly sized large river basins, with contrasting levels of water resource development, representing almost a third (29%) of Australia: the Murray–Darling Basin and the Lake Eyre Basin. The Murray–Darling Basin is Australia's most developed river basin (240 dams storing 29,893 GL) while the Lake Eyre Basin is one of the less developed basins (1 dam storing 14 GL). We compared the long‐term responses of waterbird communities in the two river basins at river basin, catchment and major wetland scales. Waterbird abundances were strongly related to river flows and rainfall. For the developed Murray–Darling Basin, we identified significant long‐term declines in total abundances, functional response groups (e.g., piscivores) and individual species of waterbird (n = 50), associated with reductions in cumulative annual flow. These trends indicated ecosystem level changes. Contrastingly, we found no evidence of waterbird declines in the undeveloped Lake Eyre Basin. We also modelled the effects of the Australian Government buying up water rights and returning these to the riverine environment, at a substantial cost (>3.1 AUD billion) which were projected to partly (18% improvement) restore waterbird abundances, but projected climate change effects could reduce these benefits considerably to only a 1% or 4% improvement, with respective annual recovery of environmental flows of 2,800 GL or 3,200 GL. Our unique large temporal and spatial scale analyses demonstrated severe long‐term ecological impact of water resource development on prominent freshwater animals, with implications for global management of water resources.     

Use of Stable Isotope Methodology to Determine Natal Origins of Mallards at a Fine Scale Within the Upper Midwest

Abstract: Waterfowl managers often attempt to protect local breeding stocks of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) from hunting pressure, but presently they cannot identify natal origins of birds shot during fall hunting seasons with certainty, unless recovered birds are banded before fledging. Accordingly, we examined whether stable isotope methodology could accurately delineate natal origins of mallards at a fine scale within the upper Midwest (USA). We determined δ¹³C, δD, and δ¹⁵N values from feather samples of 102 flightless mallard ducklings collected in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin, USA, from 7 July to 9 September 2002. We detected inverse relationships between latitude and δ¹³C(R² = 0.223) and δD(R² = 0.210). We also detected a weak positive relationship between easterly shifts in longitude and δ¹³C(R² = 0.067) and a weak negative relationship between easterly shifts in longitude and δ¹⁵N(R² = 0.076). The ¹³C and deuterium values differed (P < 0.02) among states: North Dakota was most depleted in ¹³C, and South Dakota was least depleted in deuterium. Discriminant function analysis delineated natal origins of mallard ducklings in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin with low-to-moderate accuracy (47%), whereas we predicted natal origins of ducklings among subregions (Prairie [ND, SD] vs. Great Lakes [MN, WI] states) with moderate accuracy (72%). We conclude that stable isotope methodology has a limited ability to determine natal origins of migratory birds along a longitudinal corridor at fine scales but that it improves across ecoregions. However, the ability of deuterium to determine natal origins of migratory birds may vary as hydrological conditions, within and among areas, change throughout time. Researchers should account for annual variation in deuterium found in surface waters when investigating natal origins of migratory birds that use food derived primarily from these waters.     

Effect of landscape configuration and habitat quality on the community structure of waterbirds using a man-made habitat

Species occurrence and community structure are strongly influenced by multiple factors like habitat selection, species movement capabilities, competition, or conspecific and heterospecific attractions. More specifically, in waterbird communities, previous studies have identified the importance of environmental and structural characteristics of wetlands for their occupation and use. However, the effect of the surrounding landscape configuration remains unknown. In this article, we use a large network of artificial irrigation ponds to evaluate the importance of pond features in comparison to the effect of landscape and spatial configuration on the community at three different spatial scales. Our results show that landscape configuration has relatively little influence on structure of the waterbird community. Pond features were by far the most important variables to describe waterbird abundance and richness. At the species level, we detected differences in habitat preferences relating to species-specific ecological requirements. Our results highlight the importance of using a multiscale approach to understand and predict richness and abundance in waterbird communities. Our findings emphasize the need to maintain high-quality ponds to enhance their suitability for use as breeding and foraging sites.