Robust Selection of the Most Discriminative Variables in the Dichotomous Problem with Application to Some Respiratory Disease Data

A robust method for selection of variables with the greatest discriminatory power is presented in the paper. The method deals with the two groups of data problem. An application of the method to some respiratory disease data and comparisons with classical procedures are given, also.     

The Influence of the Incubation Period on Qualitative Aspects of the Spread of AIDS

Based on a simple stochastic model the influence of the incubation period of the HIV-infection on some qualitative aspects of the spread of AIDS is studied. A critical ‘nfection rat’ is calculated in dependence on parameters of the incubation period density function.     

Field studies on the population dynamics of Biomphalaria glabrata, intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni on the West Indian Island of St. Lucia

Growth curves, calculated for field populations of B. glabrata, were not materially affected by habitat, altitude or season. A mean growth curve was therefore used to estimate the age-frequency distribution of snails in successive field samples. These data permitted the construction of ecological life tables and the estimation of r, the intrinsic rate of natural increase (or decrease) of the different populations. The calculated values of r were inserted in a simple model of unlimited population growth but the resultant curves poorly represented the observed data. A model for unlimited growth was more satisfactory for pond and marsh populations but, apparently, immigration made it less satisfactory for stream and banana drain populations. Nevertheless, r may still be of value in predicting repopulation rates in certain habitats after a mollusciciding which does not kill the entire snail population.     

Binary Responses and the Three-period Cross-over

Problems with carry-over effects in the simple two-period cross-over have lead to interest in more complex cross-over designs. A method for analysing the optimum two-treatment three-period design with binary response variables is given by making a simple extension to Gart's logistic model. The method gives independent tests for, and estimates of the difference in treatment and first-order carry-over effects. An example of the analysis is given, using the loglinear models facility in GLIM.     

Assessing population parameters and trends of Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis): An eight‐year mark‐recapture study

This study represents the first attempt to study the population dynamics of Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis), by evaluating a set of demographic parameters. The population of the Caravelas River estuary, eastern Brazil, was systematically monitored through a long‐term mark‐recapture experiment (2002–2009). Abundance estimates revealed a small population (57–124 dolphins), comprised of resident dolphins and individuals that temporarily leave or pass through the study area. Temporary emigration from the estuary to adjacencies (γ″= 0.33 ± 0.07 SE) and return rate (1 ?γ′= 0 .67) were moderate and constant, indicating that some dolphins use larger areas. Survival rate (?= 0.88 ± 0.07 SE) and abundance were constant throughout the study period. Power analysis showed that the current monitoring effort has high probability of detecting abrupt population declines (1 ?β= 0.9). Although the monitoring is not yet sensitive to subtle population trends, sufficient time to identify them is feasible (additional 3 yr). Despite such apparent stability, this population, as many others, inhabits waters exposed to multiple human‐related threats. Open and closed population modeling applied to photo‐identification data provide a robust baseline for estimating several demographic parameters and can be applied to other populations to allow further comparisons. Such synergistic efforts will allow a reliable definition of conservation status of this species.