Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of West Java Water Sustainability Index – A case study on Citarum catchment in Indonesia

Water sustainability indices have been recently used to measure the sustainability of water resources within a catchment. Developing a sustainability index involves various steps, some of which have uncertainties associated with them. For the recently developed West Java Water Sustainability Index (WJWSI), three sources of uncertainties were identified, namely uncertainties in the thresholds of non-categorical indicators and sub-indicators, in the weighting schemes, and in the aggregation methods. This paper presents the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of WJWSI, based on the application of WJWSI to Citarum catchment in West Java, Indonesia. The results of the uncertainty analysis, measured by the coefficient of variation of the thresholds and the sub-indices, indicates that minimum thresholds of Land Use Changes, Coverage, Education, Poverty, Health Impact and Sanitation, and the maximum threshold of Water Quality have higher variation when compared to variation of the other thresholds. The results of the sensitivity analysis, measured by the correlation coefficients between the final index and the thresholds, indicate that changes in the thresholds of WJWSI indicators have not significantly affected the sub-index values of most indicators and sub-indicators. The sensitivity analysis also concluded that either the equal or non-equal weighting scheme can be used for future use of the aggregation of WJWSI indicators and sub-indicators, as changes from equal to non-equal weighting scheme did not significantly affect the final index. However, it was found that the final index values were most sensitive to the aggregation method used (i.e. arithmetic and geometric methods), shown by the significant changes in the final index value when the aggregation method was changed from arithmetic to geometric. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis presented in this study will not just assist in the efficient use of the WJWSI, but will also help undertake similar analysis for other indices.     

Introducing the Multivariate Dale Model in Population‐Based Genetic Association Studies

Until recently, the most common parametric approaches to study the combined effects of several genetic polymorphisms located within a gene or in a small genomic region are, at the genotype level, logistic regressions and at the haplotype level, haplotype analyses. An alternative modeling approach, based on the case/control principle, is to regard exposures (e.g., genetic data such as derived from Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms – SNPs) as random and disease status as fixed and to use a marginal multivariate model that accounts for inter‐relationships between exposures. One such model is the multivariate Dale model. This model is based on multiple logistic regressions. That is why the model, applied in a case/control setting, leads to straightforward interpretations that are similar to those drawn in a classical logistic modeling framework. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Lethal activity of miconazole in Neisseria gonorrhoeae grown in pure and mixed cultures

Abstract Low concentrations (e.g. 2 × 10⁻⁶ M) of an imidazole derivative anti-fungal agent, miconazole, were lethal for the Gram-negative, facultative aerobic pathogen Neisseria gonorrhoeae grown either alone or in mixed culture with the yeast Candida albicans . Electron microscopic observation of Neisseria cells exposed to miconazole showed the presence of blebs in the outer wall and areas of separation between the wall and the cytoplasmic membrane. Sodium dodecyl sulphate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) of cell lysates did not reveal differences in major outer membrane proteins between the treated and the untreated cells of any one strain. Imidazole derivatives are frequently used in the treatment of candidiasis. Our in vitro results show that low concentrations of one of them, miconazole, can be bactericidal for N. gonorrhoeae , a bacterium that can colonise sites of the human body where Candida is often found.     

Germanium toxicity in selected bacterial and yeast strains

Summary The toxicity of germanium dioxide (GeO₂) to 21 bacterial and 13 yeast strains was investigated in liquid broth medium to obtain information on strains tolerant to high (1 to 2 mg/ml) GeO₂ concentrations.Arthrobacter sp. NRC 32005,enterobacter aerogenes NRC 2926,Klebsiella aerogenes NCTC 418 andPseudomonas putida NRC 5019 were tolerant to 1 mg/ml GeO₂.Bacillus sp. RC607 was able to grow in the presence of 2 mg/ml GeO₂ at pH 10 in broth culture. The yeastsCandida guilliermondii, Candida shehatae andPachysolen tannophilus were the most sensitive to GeO₂ as evidenced by their diminished growth rates at a GeO₂ concentration as low as 0.1 mg/ml. None of the yeast strains tested exhibited growth in the presence of 1 mg/ml GeO₂. The high pH of the medium containing germanium may be partially responsible for the growth inhibition of the yeast cultures. Select bacterial cultures previously exposed to 1 mg/ml GeO₂ could tolerate and grow better at 2 mg/ml GeO₂, suggesting the existence of very efficient adaptive mechanisms. The pH of the medium could modulate GeO₂ tolerance and this effect was found to be strain-dependent.     

五种水蛭对不同P^H值的生物效应

本文论述了使用常规试验方法研究5种水蛭:宽身舌蛭(Glossiphonia lata)、八目石蛭(Erpobdella octoculata)、光润金线蛭(Whitmania laevis)、尖细金线蛭(Whitmania acranulata)和日本医蛭(Hirudo nipponia)对12个pH值的24—96小时急性生物效应。结果表明:稻田3个种(尖细金线蛭,光润金线蛭和日本医蛭)均较湖泊近岸2个种(八目石蛭和宽身舌蛭)对pH值的变化要敏感,其中尖细金线蛭最敏感(pH6.0—7.2),八目石蛭的忍耐限度最宽(pH4.0—10.5);当pH值在9.5时,稻田3种水蛭的死亡率在40％以上,其中日本医蛭高达70％;当pH值在3.0时,湖泊近岸2种在24小时内全部死亡,日本医蛭仅死亡10％。日本医蛭是华中农村地区一种主要吸血蛭类,生石灰是一种从稻田消灭蛭类的有效手段,然而水的pH值必须不低于8.6。     

药敏药片对临床235株细菌实验观察报告

药敏药片经临床对金黄色葡萄球菌、大肠埃希氏菌、铜绿假单胞菌等２３５株考核．表明药片工艺研究先进,药片与培养基结合牢固,无断裂、崩解,不渗出颗粒,抑菌圈呈同心园扩散．边缘清楚。药物含量均匀,释放度好。药片抑菌差仅１～３ｍｍ;而纸片抑菌差为２～１２ｍｍ。药片变黑系数ＣＶ为２．７１～４．２１;而纸片ＣＶ为３．８２～１４．３６。表明纸片片间差大,药片精密度明显好于纸片。     

Modelling C3 photosynthesis: A sensitivity analysis of the photosynthetic carbon-reduction cycle

A model of the C ₃ photosynthetic system is developed which describes the sensitivity of the steadystate rate of carbon dioxide assimilation to changes in the activity of several enzymes of the system. The model requires measurements of the steady-state rate of carbon dioxide assimilation, the concentrations of several intermediates in the photosynthetic system, and the concentration of the active site of ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate carboxyalse/oxygenase (Rubisco). It is shown that in sunflowers (Helianthus annuus L.) at photon flux densities that are largely saturating for the rate of photosynthesis, the steady-stete rate of carbon dioxide assimilation is most sensitive to Rubisco activity and, to a lesser degree, to the activities of the stromal fructose, 6-bisphosphatase and the enzymes catalysing sucrose synthesis. The activities of sedoheptulose 1,7-bisphosphatase, ribulose 5-phosphate kinase, ATP synthase and the ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase are calculated to have a negligible effect on the flux under the high-light conditions. The utility of this analysis in developing simpler models of photosynthesis is also discussed.Abbreviations c _i intercellular CO₂ concentration - C _infP ^supJ control coefficient for enzyme P with respect to flux J - DHAP dihydroxyacetonephosphate - E4P erythrose 4-phosphate - F6P fructose 6-phosphate - FBP fructose 1,6-bisphosphate - FBPase fructose 1,6-bisphosphatase - G3P glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate - G1P glucose 1-phosphate - G6P glucose 6-phosphate - Pi inorganic phosphate - PCR photosynthetic carbon reduction - PGA 3-phosphoglyceric acid - PPFD photosynthetically active photon flux density - R _n ^J response coefficient for effector n with respect to flux J - R5P ribose 5-phosphate - Rubisco ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase - Ru5P ribulose 5-phosphate - RuBP ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate - S7P sedoheptulose 7-phosphate - SBP sedoheptulose 1,7-bisphosphate - SBPase sedoheptulose 1,7-bisphosphatase - SPS sucrose-phosphate synthase - Xu5P xylulose 5-phosphate - _n ^P elasticity coefficient for effector n with respect to the catalytic velocity of enzyme P This research was funded by an Australian Research Council grant to I.E.W. and was undertaken during a visity by K.A.M. to the James Cook University of North Queensland. The expert help of Glenys Hanley and Mick Kelly is greatly appreciated.     

血清TAP、TFF3与晚期胃癌患者含奥沙利铂化疗方案敏感性和预后的关系

摘要 目的：探讨血清肿瘤异常蛋白（TAP）、三叶因子3（TFF3）与晚期胃癌患者应用含奥沙利铂化疗方案敏感性和预后的关系。方法：选择2017年1月至2020年1月河北大学附属医院收治的115例晚期胃癌患者,所有患者接受含奥沙利铂化疗方案治疗,根据疗效分为敏感组（47例）和耐药组（68例）。化疗前检测血清TAP、TFF3水平,受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线分析TAP、TFF3预测晚期胃癌患者接受含奥沙利铂化疗疗效的价值。治疗后随访,Wilcoxon检验不同血清TAP、TFF3表达下晚期胃癌患者中位OS时间差异。结果：耐药组血清TAP、TFF3水平高于敏感组（P＜0.05）。TAP、TFF3预测晚期胃癌患者含奥沙利铂化疗耐药的曲线下面积分别为0.717、0.690,联合TAP和TFF3预测晚期胃癌患者含奥沙利铂化疗耐药的曲线下面积为0.801,高于单独TAP、TFF3单独检测。随访期间失访2例,死亡54例,高水平TAP、高水平TFF3晚期胃癌患者中位OS时间短于低水平TAP、低水平TFF3晚期胃癌患者（P＜0.05）。结论：对含奥沙利铂化疗耐药的晚期胃癌患者血清TAP、TFF3水平显著增高,高水平TAP、TFF3晚期胃癌患者中位OS时间较短,联合检测血清TAP和TFF3可预测晚期胃癌患者化疗反应性和预后。     

Photooxidation reactions of diphenylcarbazide and their DCMU-sensitivity in thylakoids of the blue-green alga Oscillatoria chalybea

Thylakoids of Oscillatoria chalybea are able to split water. The Hill reaction of these thylakoids is sensitive to DCMU. Diphenylcarbazide can substitute for water as the electron donor to photosystem II with these fully functioning thylakoids. However, the diphenylcarbazide photooxidation is completely insensitive to 3-(3,4-dichlorophenyl)-N-N-dimethyl urea (DCMU) at high diphenylcarbazide concentrations. In with Tris-treated Oscillatoria thylakoids the water splitting capacity is lost and diphenylcarbazide restores electron transport through photosystem II as occurs with higher plant chloroplasts. However, also these photoreactions are insensitive to DCMU. If diphenylcarbazide acts in Oscillatoria as an electron donor to photosystem II the result suggests that diphenylcarbazide feeds in its electrons behind the DCMU inhibition site. This in turn indicates that in Oscillatoria the site of inhibition of DCMU is on the donor side of photosystem II.Abbreviations Used DCMU 3-(3,4-dichlorophenyl)-N-N-dimethyl urea - DPC diphenylcarbazide - DCPiP 2,6-dichlorophenol indophenol - TMB tetramethyl benzidine - A-2-sulf anthraquinone-2-sulfonate     

Adjusting for Nonignorable Missingness When Estimating Generalized Additive Models

Generalized additive models (GAMs) have been widely used for flexible modeling of various types of outcomes. When the outcome in a GAM is subject to missing, practical analyses often assume that missingness is missing at random (MAR). This assumption can be of suspicion when the missingness is not by design. Evaluating the potential effects of alternative nonignorable missing data mechanism on the MAR inference from a GAM can be important but often challenging due to the complicatedness of alternative nonignorable models. We apply the index approach to local sensitivity (Troxel, Ma, and Heitjan 2004 (2004). Statistica Sinica 14 , 1221–1237) to evaluate the potential changes of the GAM estimates in the neighborhood of the MAR model. The approach avoids fitting any complicated nonignorable GAM. Only MAR estimates are required to calculate the resulting sensitivity index and adjust the GAM estimates to account for nonignorable missingness. Thus the proposed approach is considerably simpler to conduct, as compared with the alternative methods. The simulation study shows that the index provides valid assessment of the local sensitivity of the GAM estimates to nonignorable missingness. We then illustrate the method using a rheumatoid arthritis clinical trial data set.