A spatiotemporal assessment of field residues of rice,maize, and wheat at provincial and county levels in China

China has a huge resource potential for biomass‐based renewable energy development, but the resources of field residues are still not effectively used. Rice, maize, and wheat made up 89% of staple crop production in China in 2009. A comprehensive assessment of field residues of these three crops is necessary for the development of biomass‐based industries. This research was based on multiyear county‐level data of crop production, area and yield, as well as the crop phenology information from agrometeorological stations. Spatial and temporal analyses were conducted to quantify the spatial patterns, seasonal variations, and temporal trends of the three major field residues. The mean amount of field residue of rice, maize, and wheat was 470.8 Mt/year from 2002 to 2009. Rice residue topped the field residues at 188.5 Mt/year, followed by maize (152.6 Mt/year) and wheat (129.8 Mt/year). The resource supply of field residues varied temporally throughout the season, where peak months are May, June, September, and October. The resources of all three field residues increased from 2002 to 2009, topped by maize residues at a rate of 10.0 Mt/year. Spatially, high production counties had the fast growth rate and a strong positive spatial autocorrelation. The results showed that the intersection area of East and South Central regions has a spatially concentrated residue density and a stable supply for 5 months. The region can be considered as a suitable region for bioenergy development. A better understanding of spatial and temporal distribution of crop residues could facilitate strategic and tactical bioenergy planning.     

中国作物秸秆资源评估研究现状

文中分析了中国的农作物秸秆资源量,对实现秸秆资源化具有重要意义。首先明确了秸秆的概念,即收获作物主产品之后所有大田剩余的副产物及主产品初加工过程产生的副产物,根据不同产出环节将秸秆分为田间秸秆和加工副产物。其次,阐述了秸秆评估的计算方法,给出了各种作物秸秆计算方法。第三,总结了近10年发表文献和作者近期研究对1991年以来中国秸秆资源量评估结果,对1991-1999年中国作物田间秸秆资源量评估的值多数为6.0～6.8亿t,对加工副产物资源量未见报道;对2000-2007年田间秸秆产量的评估的值多数为5.9～7.3亿t,作物加工副产物量为0.9～1.1亿t。第四,分析了对中国秸秆资源量评估值差异的原因等问题,包括以往研究作物秸秆的概念不明确,草谷比取值差异大而不符合当前作物生产现状,以及对于农作物产量的统计指标和产量构成认识不清楚等。第五,报道了作者以最近5年测定的各省作物收获指数,采用完全统计方法评估了2006-2007年中国作物秸秆量及其在8个地区的分布,结果表明秸秆资源总量为7.4亿t,包括6.5亿t田间秸秆和0.9亿t作物加工副产物。     

A spatial assessment of potential biomass for bioenergy in Australia in 2010, and possible expansion by 2030 and 2050

This paper provides spatial estimates of potentially available biomass for bioenergy in Australia in 2010, 2030 and 2050 (under clearly stated assumptions) for the following biomass sources: crop stubble, native grasses, pulpwood and residues (created either during forest harvesting or wood processing) from plantations and native forests, bagasse, organic municipal solid waste and new short‐rotation tree crops. For each biomass type, we estimated annual potential availability at the finest scale possible with readily accessible data, and then aggregated to make estimates for each of 60 Statistical Divisions (administrative areas) across Australia. The potentially available lignocellulosic biomass is estimated at approximately 80 Mt per year, with the major contributors of crop stubble (27.7 Mt per year), grasses (19.7 Mt per year) and forest plantations (10.9 Mt per year). Over the next 20–40 years, total potentially available biomass could increase to 100–115 Mt per year, with new plantings of short‐rotation trees being the major source of the increase (14.7 Mt per year by 2030 and 29.3 Mt per year by 2050). We exclude oilseeds, algae and ‘regrowth’, that is woody vegetation naturally regenerating on previously cleared land, which may be important in several regions of Australia (Australian Forestry 77 , 2014, 1; Global Change Biology Bioenergy 7 , 2015, 497). We briefly discuss some of the challenges to providing a reliable and sustainable supply of the large amounts of biomass required to build a bioenergy industry of significant scale. More detailed regional analyses, including of the costs of delivered biomass, logistics and economics of harvest, transport and storage, competing markets for biomass and a full assessment of the sustainability of production are needed to underpin investment in specific conversion facilities (e.g. Opportunities for forest bioenergy: An assessment of the environmental and economic opportunities and constraints associated with bioenergy production from biomass resources in two prospective regions of Australia, 2011a).     

秸秆还田量对土壤CO2释放和土壤微生物量的影响

对玉米季、小麦季3种不同秸秆还田量的土壤生物学指标的测定结果表明,在秸秆倍量还田中,随着秸秆量的增加,CO₂释放量增加,而且倍量处理的增加量显著大于全量处理;在玉米和小麦季节中,不同量秸秆还田对土壤0～10和10～20cm的土壤微生物量的影响不同,但均能增大土壤微生物量,全量和倍量处理间没有明显差异.在土壤表层及下层,微生物量的最大值均落后于土壤呼吸的最大值,且土壤微生物量达到最大值即其最活跃状态后,下降缓慢,但土壤呼吸减少较快,说明微生物活动存在明显的合成性呼吸与维持性呼吸;综合评价不同秸秆量还田的效应,应采用秸秆全量还田,既能调节土壤物理环境,促进微生物的代谢活动,利于养分的转化,又可以减少环境污染.     

秸秆还田量对土壤CO2释放和土壤微生物量的影响

对玉米季、小麦季3种不同秸秆还田量的土壤生物学指标的测定结果表明,在秸秆倍量还田中,随着秸秆量的增加,CO2释放量增加,而且倍量处理的增加量显著大于全量处理;在玉米和小麦季节中,不同量秸秆还田对土壤0～10和10～20cm的土壤微生物量的影响不同,但均能增大土壤微生物量,全量和倍量处理间没有明显差异、在土壤表层及下层,微生物量的最大值均落后于土壤呼吸的最大值,且土壤微生物量达到最大值即其最活跃状态后,下降缓慢,但土壤呼吸减少较快,说明微生物活动存在明显的合成性呼吸与维持性呼吸;综合评价不同秸秆量还田的效应,应采用秸秆全量还田,既能调节土壤物理环境,促进微生物的代谢活动,利于养分的转化,又可以减少环境污染。     

Impact of agronomic uncertainty in biomass production and endogenous commodity prices on cellulosic biofuel feedstock composition

This study evaluates the effect of agronomic uncertainty on bioenergy crop production as well as endogenous commodity and biomass prices on the feedstock composition of cellulosic biofuels under a binding mandate in the United States. The county‐level simulation model focuses on both field crops (corn, soybean, and wheat) and biomass feedstocks (corn stover, wheat straw, switchgrass, and Miscanthus). In addition, pasture serves as a potential area for bioenergy crop production. The economic model is calibrated to 2022 in terms of yield, crop demand, and baseline prices and allocates land optimally among the alternative crops given the binding cellulosic biofuel mandate. The simulation scenarios differ in terms of bioenergy crop type (switchgrass and Miscanthus) and yield, biomass production inputs, and pasture availability. The cellulosic biofuel mandates range from 15 to 60 billion L. The results indicate that the 15 and 30 billion L mandates in the high production input scenarios for switchgrass and Miscanthus are covered entirely by agricultural residues. With the exception of the low production input for Miscanthus scenario, the share of agricultural residues is always over 50% for all other scenarios including the 60 billion L mandate. The largest proportion of agricultural land dedicated to either switchgrass or Miscanthus is found in the southern Plains and the southeast. Almost no bioenergy crops are grown in the Midwest across all scenarios. Changes in the prices for the three commodities are negligible for cellulosic ethanol mandates because most of the mandate is met with agricultural residues. The lessons learned are that (1) the share of agricultural residue in the feedstock mix is higher than previously estimated and (2) for a given mandate, the feedstock composition is relatively stable with the exception of one scenario.     

An integrated assessment of the potential of agricultural and forestry residues for energy production in China

Biomass has been widely recognized as an important energy source with high potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while minimizing environmental pollution. In this study, we employ the Global Change Assessment Model to estimate the potential of agricultural and forestry residue biomass for energy production in China. Potential availability of residue biomass as an energy source was analyzed for the 21st century under different climate policy scenarios. Currently, the amount of total annual residue biomass, averaged over 2003–2007, is around 15 519 PJ in China, consisting of 10 818 PJ from agriculture residues (70%) and 4701 PJ forestry residues (30%). We estimate that 12 693 PJ of the total biomass is available for energy production, with 66% derived from agricultural residue and 34% from forestry residue. Most of the available residue is from south central China (3347 PJ), east China (2862 PJ) and south‐west China (2229 PJ), which combined exceeds 66% of the total national biomass. Under the reference scenario without carbon tax, the potential availability of residue biomass for energy production is projected to be 3380 PJ by 2050 and 4108 PJ by 2095, respectively. When carbon tax is imposed, biomass availability increases substantially. For the CCS 450 ppm scenario, availability of biomass increases to 9002 PJ (2050) and 11 524 PJ (2095), respectively. For the 450 ppm scenario without CCS, 9183 (2050) and 11 150 PJ (2095) residue biomass, respectively, is projected to be available. Moreover, the implementation of CCS will have a little impact on the supply of residue biomass after 2035. Our results suggest that residue biomass has the potential to be an important component in China's sustainable energy production portfolio. As a low carbon emission energy source, climate change policies that involve carbon tariff and CCS technology promote the use of residue biomass for energy production in a low carbon‐constrained world.     

Plastic pollution in croplands threatens long‐term food security

Plastic pollution is a global concern given its prevalence in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Studies have been conducted on the distribution and impact of plastic pollution in marine ecosystems, but little is known on terrestrial ecosystems. Plastic mulch has been widely used to increase crop yields worldwide, yet the impact of plastic residues in cropland soils to soil health and crop production in the long term remained unclear. In this paper, using a global meta‐analysis, we found that the use of plastic mulch can indeed increase crop yields on average by 25%–42% in the immediate season due to the increase of soil temperature (+8%) and moisture (+17%). However, the unabated accumulation of film residues in the field negatively impacts its physicochemical properties linked to healthy soil and threatens food production in the long term. It has multiple negative impacts on plant growth including crop yield (at the mean rate of ?3% for every additional 100 kg/ha of film residue), plant height (?2%) and root weight (?5%), and soil properties including soil water evaporation capacity (?2%), soil water infiltration rate (?8%), soil organic matter (?0.8%) and soil available phosphorus (?5%) based on meta‐regression. Using a nationwide field survey of China, the largest user of plastic mulch worldwide, we found that plastic residue accumulation in cropland soils has reached 550,800 tonnes, with an estimated 6%–10% reduction in cotton yield in some polluted sites based on current level of plastic residue content. Immediate actions should be taken to ensure the recovery of plastic film mulch and limit further increase in film residue loading to maintain the sustainability of these croplands.     

Simulated impact of the renewable fuels standard on US Conservation Reserve Program enrollment and conversion

A socioeconomic model is used to estimate the land‐use implications on the U.S. Conservation Reserve Program from potential increases in second‐generation biofuel production. A baseline scenario with no second‐generation biofuel production is compared to a scenario where the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2) volumes are met by 2022. We allow for the possibility of converting expiring CRP lands to alternative uses such as conventional crops, dedicated second‐generation biofuel crops, or harvesting existing CRP grasses for biomass. Results indicate that RFS2 volumes (RFS2‐v) can be met primarily with crop residues (78% of feedstock demand) and woody residues (19% of feedstock demand) compared with dedicated biomass (3% of feedstock demand), with only minimal conversion of cropland (0.27 million hectares, <1% of total cropland), pastureland (0.28 million hectares of pastureland, <1% of total pastureland), and CRP lands (0.29 million hectares of CRP lands, 3% of existing CRP lands) to biomass production. Meeting RFS2 volumes would reduce CRP re‐enrollment by 0.19 million hectares, or 4%, below the baseline scenario where RFS2 is not met. Yet under RFS2‐v scenario, expiring CRP lands are more likely to be converted to or maintain perennial cover, with 1.78 million hectares of CRP lands converting to hay production, and 0.29 million hectares being harvested for existing grasses. A small amount of CRP is harvested for existing biomass, but no conversion of CRP to dedicated biomass crops, such as switchgrass, are projected to occur. Although less land is enrolled in CRP under RFS2‐v scenario, total land in perennial cover increases by 0.15 million hectares, or 2%, under RFS2‐v. Sensitivity to yield, payment and residue retention assumptions are evaluated.     

Contribution of above‐ and belowground bioenergy crop residues to soil carbon

GHG mitigation by bioenergy crops depends on crop type, management practices, and the input of residue carbon (C) to the soil. Perennial grasses may increase soil C compared to annual crops because of more extensive root systems, but it is less clear how much soil C is derived from above‐ vs. belowground inputs. The objective of this study was to synthesize the existing knowledge regarding soil C inputs from above‐ and belowground crop residues in regions cultivated with sugarcane, corn, and miscanthus, and to predict the impact of residue removal and tillage on soil C stocks. The literature review showed that aboveground inputs to soil C (to 1‐m depth) ranged from 70% to 81% for sugarcane and corn vs. 40% for miscanthus. Modeled aboveground C inputs (to 30 cm depth) ranged from 54% to 82% for sugarcane, but were 67% for miscanthus. Because 50% of observed miscanthus belowground biomass is below 30 cm depth, it may be necessary to increase the depth of modeled soil C dynamics to reconcile modeled belowground C inputs with measured. Modeled removal of aboveground corn residue (25–100%) resulted in C stock reduction in areas of corn–corn–soybean rotation under conventional tillage, while no‐till management lessoned this impact. In sugarcane, soil C stocks were reduced when total aboveground residue was removed at one site, while partial removal of sugarcane residue did not reduce soil C stocks in either area. This study suggests that aboveground crop residues were the main C‐residue source to the soil in the current bioethanol sector (corn and sugarcane) and the indiscriminate removal of crop residues to produce cellulosic biofuels can reduce soil C stocks and reduce the environmental benefits of bioenergy. Moreover, a switch to feedstocks such as miscanthus with more allocation to belowground C could increase soil C stocks at a much faster rate.     

Assessing lignocellulosic biomass production from crop residues in the European Union: Modelling,analysis of the current scenario and drivers of interannual variability

This study assesses crop residues in the EU from major crops using empirical models to predict crop residues from yield statistics; furthermore it analyses the inter‐annual variability of those estimates over the period 1998‐2015, identifying its main drivers across Europe. The models were constructed based on an exhaustive collection of experimental data from scientific papers for the crops: wheat, barley, rye, oats, triticale, rice, maize, sorghum, rapeseed, sunflower, soybean, potato and sugarbeet. We discuss the assumptions on the relationship between yield and the harvest index, adopted by previous studies, to interpret the experimental data, quantify the uncertainties of these models, and establish the premises to implement them at regional scale –i.e., NUTS level 3– within the EU. To cope this, we created a consolidated sub‐national statistical data along with an algorithm able to aggregate (figures are provided at country level) and disaggregate (production at 25 km grid is provided assupplementary material) estimates. The total lignocellulosic biomass production in the EU28 over the review period, according to our models, is 419 Mt, from which wheat is the major contributor (155 Mt). Our results show that maize and rapeseed are the two crops with the highest residue yield, respectively 8.9 and 8.6 t ha‐1. The spatial analysis revealed that these three crops, which, according to our results, are feedstocks highly suitable a priori for second generation biofuels in the EU and are unevenly distributed across Europe. Weather fluctuation was identified as the major driver in residue production from cereals, while, in the case of starch crops and oilseeds – which are predominant in northern Europe – corresponded to the marked production trend likely influenced by the agricultural policies and agro‐management over the review period. Our results, among others, could help to understand and quantify the ecological boundaries of the bioeconomy from agriculture.     

Soil nitrous oxide emissions following crop residue addition: a meta‐analysis

Annual production of crop residues has reached nearly 4 billion metric tons globally. Retention of this large amount of residues on agricultural land can be beneficial to soil C sequestration. Such potential impacts, however, may be offset if residue retention substantially increases soil emissions of N₂O, a potent greenhouse gas and ozone depletion substance. Residue effects on soil N₂O emissions have gained considerable attention since early 1990s; yet, it is still a great challenge to predict the magnitude and direction of soil N₂O emissions following residue amendment. Here, we used a meta‐analysis to assess residue impacts on soil N₂O emissions in relation to soil and residue attributes, i.e., soil pH, soil texture, soil water content, residue C and N input, and residue C : N ratio. Residue effects were negatively associated with C : N ratios, but generally residue amendment could not reduce soil N₂O emissions, even for C : N ratios well above ca. 30, the threshold for net N immobilization. Residue effects were also comparable to, if not greater than, those of synthetic N fertilizers. In addition, residue effects on soil N₂O emissions were positively related to the amounts of residue C input as well as residue effects on soil CO₂ respiration. Furthermore, most significant and stimulatory effects occurred at 60–90% soil water‐filled pore space and soil pH 7.1–7.8. Stimulatory effects were also present for all soil textures except sand or clay content ≤10%. However, inhibitory effects were found for soils with >90% water‐filled pore space. Altogether, our meta‐analysis suggests that crop residues played roles beyond N supply for N₂O production. Perhaps, by stimulating microbial respiration, crop residues enhanced oxygen depletion and therefore promoted anaerobic conditions for denitrification and N₂O production. Our meta‐analysis highlights the necessity to connect the quantity and quality of crop residues with soil properties for predicting soil N₂O emissions.     

Changes in soil organic carbon under perennial crops

This study evaluates the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) under perennial crops across the globe. It quantifies the effect of change from annual to perennial crops and the subsequent temporal changes in SOC stocks during the perennial crop cycle. It also presents an empirical model to estimate changes in the SOC content under crops as a function of time, land use, and site characteristics. We used a harmonized global dataset containing paired‐comparison empirical values of SOC and different types of perennial crops (perennial grasses, palms, and woody plants) with different end uses: bioenergy, food, other bio‐products, and short rotation coppice. Salient outcomes include: a 20‐year period encompassing a change from annual to perennial crops led to an average 20% increase in SOC at 0–30 cm (6.0 ± 4.6 Mg/ha gain) and a total 10% increase over the 0–100 cm soil profile (5.7 ± 10.9 Mg/ha). A change from natural pasture to perennial crop decreased SOC stocks by 1% over 0–30 cm (?2.5 ± 4.2 Mg/ha) and 10% over 0–100 cm (?13.6 ± 8.9 Mg/ha). The effect of a land use change from forest to perennial crops did not show significant impacts, probably due to the limited number of plots; but the data indicated that while a 2% increase in SOC was observed at 0–30 cm (16.81 ± 55.1 Mg/ha), a decrease in 24% was observed at 30–100 cm (?40.1 ± 16.8 Mg/ha). Perennial crops generally accumulate SOC through time, especially woody crops; and temperature was the main driver explaining differences in SOC dynamics, followed by crop age, soil bulk density, clay content, and depth. We present empirical evidence showing that the FAO perennialization strategy is reasonable, underscoring the role of perennial crops as a useful component of climate change mitigation strategies.     

White spruce foliar δ13C and δ15N indicate changed soil N availability by understory removal and N fertilization in a 13-year-old boreal plantation

Background and Aims

Phosphorus (P) mineralisation from crop residues is usually predicted from total P or carbon: phosphorus (C: P) ratios. However, these measures have limited accuracy as they do not take into account the presence of different P species that may be mineralised at different rates. In this study P speciation was determined using solution ³¹P nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to understand the potential fate of residue P in soils.

Methods

Mature above-ground biomass of eight different crops sampled from the field was portioned into stem, chaff and seed.

Results

The main forms of P detected in stem and chaff were orthophosphate (25–75 %), phospholipids (10–40 %) and RNA (5–30 %). Phytate was the dominant P species in seeds, and constituted up to 45 % of total P in chaff but was only detected in minor amounts (<1 %) in stem residue. The majority (65–95 %) of P in stems was water-extractable, and most of this was detected as orthophosphate. However, this includes organic P that may have been hydrolysed during the water extraction.

Conclusions

This study indicates that the majority of residue P in aboveground plant residues has the potential to be delivered to soil in a form readily available to plants and soil microorganisms.

     

Biomass potential from agricultural residues for energy utilization in West Nusa Tenggara (WNT), Indonesia

The West Nusa Tenggara (WNT) province is one of the regions that contribute the most to the production of rice, corn, and cacao. The residues of these crops increase as production increases. The potential availability of the residue was calculated on the basis of the amount of agricultural product and the availability of unutilized residues. The estimated potential energy and collected data were processed and combined with converted factors, such as the yield per hectare and the calorific value, taking into account another purpose, the use of domestic residues for animal feed. Paddy straw, corn straw, and corn cobs had the highest percentage of residue availabilities, 85.91%, 82.26%, and 88.25%, respectively. In addition, the WNT regency has a rich diversity of agricultural residues from superior commodities such as rice, corn, coffee, coconut and cacao. The calculation of the total heating value (THV) of the agricultural residue available reached up to 42.4 PJ. Furthermore, the use of biomass for bioenergy resources is promising, particularly for the WNT region, with the potential for unused agricultural residues. The dependence on unsustainable energy, such as coal and fossil fuel, can be reduced by deploying and developing energy production from biomass use. Therefore, the potential for bioenergy generation and the availability of biomass can be developed for sustainable agriculture and energy management.     

增产菌的田间应用

增产菌的田间应用始于1979年,在过去的九年中,增产菌已在全国29个省、市、自治区中应用.面积总计达346万公顷.在大多数应用地区,作物增产(增产率一般为10%)且一些病害减轻,以1987年为例,在水稻、小麦、油菜和棉花上应用达335万公顷;粮食产量增加41 000万公斤;油菜籽产量增加7400万公斤.经济收益增加31 870万元.     

Modeled spatial assessment of biomass productivity and technical potential of Miscanthus × giganteus,Panicum virgatum L., and Jatropha on marginal land in China

This article identifies marginal land technically available for the production of energy crops in China, compares three models of yield prediction for Miscanthus × giganteus, Panicum virgatum L. (switchgrass), and Jatropha, and estimates their spatially specific yields and technical potential for 2017. Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis of land use maps estimated that 185 Mha of marginal land was technically available for energy crops in China without using areas currently used for food production. Modeled yields were projected for Miscanthus × giganteus, a GIS‐based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model for switchgrass and Global Agro‐Ecological Zone model for Jatropha. GIS analysis and MiscanFor estimated more than 120 Mha marginal land was technically available for Miscanthus with a total potential of 1,761 dry weight metric million tonne (DW Mt)/year. A total of 284 DW Mt/year of switchgrass could be obtained from 30 Mha marginal land, with an average yield of 9.5 DW t ha^?1 year^?1. More than 35 Mha marginal land was technically available for Jatropha, delivering 9.7 Mt/year of Jatropha seed. The total technical potential from available marginal land was calculated as 31.7 EJ/year for Miscanthus, 5.1 EJ/year for switchgrass, and 0.13 EJ/year for Jatropha. A total technical bioenergy potential of 34.4 EJ/year was calculated by identifying best suited crop for each 1 km² grid cell based on the highest energy value among the three crops. The results indicate that the technical potential per hectare of Jatropha is unable to compete with that of the other two crops in each grid cell. This modeling study provides planners with spatial overviews that demonstrate the potential of these crops and where biomass production could be potentially distributed in China which needs field trials to test model assumptions and build experience necessary to translate into practicality.     

Supply of cellulosic biomass in Illinois and implications for the Conservation Reserve Program

We developed a mathematical programming model to estimate the supply of cellulosic biomass in Illinois at various biomass prices and examine the implications of biomass production for the maintenance costs of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). We find that Illinois has the potential to produce about 38.4–54.5 million dry metric tons (MT) of biomass in 2020 at a biomass price of $150/MT, depending on the production costs of cellulosic feedstocks, residue collection technology, and rates of yield increases of conventional crops. Corn stover will account for more than 65% of the total biomass production across biomass prices and the scenarios considered, while the roles of wheat straw and energy crops are quite limited. Given biomass prices of $50/MT‐$150/MT, many landowners would convert their expiring CRP lands to croplands. To maintain the size of the CRP during the 2007–2020 period at the 2007 levels in Illinois, total program maintenance costs would be $104.6–176.5 million at a biomass price of $50/MT, depending on biomass production conditions and crop yields on CRP lands. This would increase to $155.2–245.4 million at a biomass price of $150/MT.     

Novel Miscanthus hybrids: Modelling productivity on marginal land in Europe using dynamics of canopy development determined by light interception

New biomass crop hybrids for bioeconomic expansion require yield projections to determine their potential for strategic land use planning in the face of global challenges. Our biomass growth simulation incorporates radiation interception and conversion efficiency. Models often use leaf area to predict interception which is demanding to determine accurately, so instead we use low-cost rapid light interception measurements using a simple laboratory-made line ceptometer and relate the dynamics of canopy closure to thermal time, and to measurements of biomass. We apply the model to project the European biomass potentials of new market-ready hybrids for 2020–2030. Field measurements are easier to collect, the calibration is seasonally dynamic and reduces influence of weather variation between field sites. The model obtained is conservative, being calibrated by crops of varying establishment and varying maturity on less productive (marginal) land. This results in conservative projections of miscanthus hybrids for 2020–2030 based on 10% land use conversion of the least (productive) grassland and arable for farm diversification, which show a European potential of 80.7–89.7 Mt year⁻¹ biomass, with potential for 1.2–1.3 EJ year⁻¹ energy and 36.3–40.3 Mt year⁻¹ carbon capture, with seeded Miscanthus sacchariflorus × sinensis displaying highest yield potential. Simulated biomass projections must be viewed in light of the field measurements on less productive land with high soil water deficits. We are attempting to model the results from an ambitious and novel project combining new hybrids across Europe with agronomy which has not been perfected on less productive sites. Nevertheless, at the time of energy sourcing issues, seed-propagated miscanthus hybrids for the upscaled provision of bioenergy offer an alternative source of renewable energy. If European countries provide incentives for growers to invest, seeded hybrids can improve product availability and biomass yields over the current commercial miscanthus variety.     

Demand for biomass to meet renewable energy targets in the United States: implications for land use

Renewable energy policies in the electricity and transportation sectors in the United States are expected to create demand for biomass and food crops (corn) that could divert land from food crop production. We develop a dynamic, open‐economy, price‐endogenous multi‐market model of the US agricultural, electricity and transportation sectors to endogenously determine the quantity and mix of bioenergy likely to be required to meet the state Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPSs) and the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) if implemented independently or jointly (RFS & RPS) over the 2007–2030 period and their implications for the extent and spatial pattern of diversion of land from other uses for biomass feedstock production. We find that the demand for biomass ranges from 100 million metric tons (MMT) under the RPS alone to 310 MMT under the RFS & RPS; 70% of the biomass in the latter case can be met by crop and forest residues, while the rest can be met by devoting 3% of cropland to energy crop production with 80% of this being marginal land. Our findings show significant potential to meet current renewable energy goals by expanding high‐yielding energy crop production on marginal land and using residues without conflicting with food crop production.