Second harvest–Is there sufficient stubble for biofuel production in Australia?

Identifying the location and amount of grain crop residues (stubble) in Australia is necessary for determining the viability of potential biofuel plant locations. We combined 22 years of crop statistics with harvest indices and land use to arrive at spatially explicit stubble productivity figures. Stubble quantities using different focal radii and from different seasons provide an insight into the feasibility of its use for bioenergy. We focus on areas where the stubble concentrations within a 50 km radius were at least 500 kt per year; the amount suggested for a viable lignocellolosic bioethanol facility. The outcome of this study has been to show, for the first time, where there are large amounts of stubble in Australia. Whether the supply of stubble is sufficiently constant over time and indeed available at a price that is economic for a biofuel plant must be subject to future work.     

Modeled spatial assessment of biomass productivity and technical potential of Miscanthus × giganteus,Panicum virgatum L., and Jatropha on marginal land in China

This article identifies marginal land technically available for the production of energy crops in China, compares three models of yield prediction for Miscanthus × giganteus, Panicum virgatum L. (switchgrass), and Jatropha, and estimates their spatially specific yields and technical potential for 2017. Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis of land use maps estimated that 185 Mha of marginal land was technically available for energy crops in China without using areas currently used for food production. Modeled yields were projected for Miscanthus × giganteus, a GIS‐based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model for switchgrass and Global Agro‐Ecological Zone model for Jatropha. GIS analysis and MiscanFor estimated more than 120 Mha marginal land was technically available for Miscanthus with a total potential of 1,761 dry weight metric million tonne (DW Mt)/year. A total of 284 DW Mt/year of switchgrass could be obtained from 30 Mha marginal land, with an average yield of 9.5 DW t ha^?1 year^?1. More than 35 Mha marginal land was technically available for Jatropha, delivering 9.7 Mt/year of Jatropha seed. The total technical potential from available marginal land was calculated as 31.7 EJ/year for Miscanthus, 5.1 EJ/year for switchgrass, and 0.13 EJ/year for Jatropha. A total technical bioenergy potential of 34.4 EJ/year was calculated by identifying best suited crop for each 1 km² grid cell based on the highest energy value among the three crops. The results indicate that the technical potential per hectare of Jatropha is unable to compete with that of the other two crops in each grid cell. This modeling study provides planners with spatial overviews that demonstrate the potential of these crops and where biomass production could be potentially distributed in China which needs field trials to test model assumptions and build experience necessary to translate into practicality.     

A spatiotemporal assessment of field residues of rice,maize, and wheat at provincial and county levels in China

China has a huge resource potential for biomass‐based renewable energy development, but the resources of field residues are still not effectively used. Rice, maize, and wheat made up 89% of staple crop production in China in 2009. A comprehensive assessment of field residues of these three crops is necessary for the development of biomass‐based industries. This research was based on multiyear county‐level data of crop production, area and yield, as well as the crop phenology information from agrometeorological stations. Spatial and temporal analyses were conducted to quantify the spatial patterns, seasonal variations, and temporal trends of the three major field residues. The mean amount of field residue of rice, maize, and wheat was 470.8 Mt/year from 2002 to 2009. Rice residue topped the field residues at 188.5 Mt/year, followed by maize (152.6 Mt/year) and wheat (129.8 Mt/year). The resource supply of field residues varied temporally throughout the season, where peak months are May, June, September, and October. The resources of all three field residues increased from 2002 to 2009, topped by maize residues at a rate of 10.0 Mt/year. Spatially, high production counties had the fast growth rate and a strong positive spatial autocorrelation. The results showed that the intersection area of East and South Central regions has a spatially concentrated residue density and a stable supply for 5 months. The region can be considered as a suitable region for bioenergy development. A better understanding of spatial and temporal distribution of crop residues could facilitate strategic and tactical bioenergy planning.     

Novel Miscanthus hybrids: Modelling productivity on marginal land in Europe using dynamics of canopy development determined by light interception

New biomass crop hybrids for bioeconomic expansion require yield projections to determine their potential for strategic land use planning in the face of global challenges. Our biomass growth simulation incorporates radiation interception and conversion efficiency. Models often use leaf area to predict interception which is demanding to determine accurately, so instead we use low-cost rapid light interception measurements using a simple laboratory-made line ceptometer and relate the dynamics of canopy closure to thermal time, and to measurements of biomass. We apply the model to project the European biomass potentials of new market-ready hybrids for 2020–2030. Field measurements are easier to collect, the calibration is seasonally dynamic and reduces influence of weather variation between field sites. The model obtained is conservative, being calibrated by crops of varying establishment and varying maturity on less productive (marginal) land. This results in conservative projections of miscanthus hybrids for 2020–2030 based on 10% land use conversion of the least (productive) grassland and arable for farm diversification, which show a European potential of 80.7–89.7 Mt year⁻¹ biomass, with potential for 1.2–1.3 EJ year⁻¹ energy and 36.3–40.3 Mt year⁻¹ carbon capture, with seeded Miscanthus sacchariflorus × sinensis displaying highest yield potential. Simulated biomass projections must be viewed in light of the field measurements on less productive land with high soil water deficits. We are attempting to model the results from an ambitious and novel project combining new hybrids across Europe with agronomy which has not been perfected on less productive sites. Nevertheless, at the time of energy sourcing issues, seed-propagated miscanthus hybrids for the upscaled provision of bioenergy offer an alternative source of renewable energy. If European countries provide incentives for growers to invest, seeded hybrids can improve product availability and biomass yields over the current commercial miscanthus variety.     

A quantitative assessment of crop residue feedstocks for biofuel in North and Northeast China

Crop residue resources may affect soil quality, global carbon balance, and stability of crop production, but also contribute to future energy security. This study was performed to evaluate the spatial and temporal variation in residue quantities of field crops in five provinces of North China (NC) and three provinces of Northeast China (NEC). The availability of biomass resources was derived from statistical data on crop yields for all crops on the provincial and even county level. We found that cereals – wheat, maize, and rice – were the biggest resource of crop residue feedstock. The ranking of these crops as a source of biomass for bioenergy is determined by the acreage in each region and the crop‐specific yield. Annually, the average amount of total residue of 83.0 Mt (Mt = Mega tonnes) in NC (16.9 Million ha) comprised 76.6 Mt field residues and 6.4 Mt process residues on an air‐dried basis. The average amount of total biomass residue of 105.7 Mt in NEC (19.8 Million ha) comprised 92.8 Mt field residues and 12.9 Mt process residues. Averaged for 2008, 2009, and 2010, the total standard coal equivalent (SCE) in NC amounted to 46.4 Mt, which comprised 42.4 Mt field residues and of 3.9 Mt process residues. In NEC, the SCE value of 57.0 Mt comprised 49.7 Mt field residues and 7.4 Mt process residues. The temporal availability of field residues was mainly concentrated in the period between July and September, followed by the period between October and December. In the period between July and September, the amount of field residue available amounted to 40.9 and 53.1 Mt in NC and NEC, respectively. An accurate assessment of field residues may guide policy makers and industry to optimize the utilization of the crop residue resource.     

A reassessment of global bioenergy potential in 2050

Many climate change mitigation strategies rely on strong projected growth in biomass energy, supported by literature estimating high future bioenergy potential. However, expectations to 2050 are highly divergent. Examining the most widely cited studies finds that some assumptions in these models are inconsistent with the best available evidence. By identifying literature‐supported, up‐to‐date assumptions for parameters including crop yields, land availability, and costs, we revise upper‐end estimates of potential biomass availability from dedicated energy crops. Even allowing for the conversion of virtually all ‘unused’ grassland and savannah, we find that the maximum plausible limit to sustainable energy crop production in 2050 would be 40–110 EJ yr^?1. Combined with forestry, crop residues, and wastes, the maximum limit to long‐term total biomass availability is 60–120 EJ yr^?1 in primary energy. After accounting for current trends in bioenergy allocation and conversion losses, we estimate maximum potentials of 10–20 EJ yr^?1 of biofuel, 20–40 EJ yr^?1 of electricity, and 10–30 EJ yr^?1 of heating in 2050. These findings suggest that many technical projections and aspirational goals for future bioenergy use could be difficult or impossible to achieve sustainably.     

Carbon implications of converting cropland to bioenergy crops or forest for climate mitigation: a global assessment

The potential for climate change mitigation by bioenergy crops and terrestrial carbon sinks has been the object of intensive research in the past decade. There has been much debate about whether energy crops used to offset fossil fuel use, or carbon sequestration in forests, would provide the best climate mitigation benefit. Most current food cropland is unlikely to be used for bioenergy, but in many regions of the world, a proportion of cropland is being abandoned, particularly marginal croplands, and some of this land is now being used for bioenergy. In this study, we assess the consequences of land‐use change on cropland. We first identify areas where cropland is so productive that it may never be converted and assess the potential of the remaining cropland to mitigate climate change by identifying which alternative land use provides the best climate benefit: C₄ grass bioenergy crops, coppiced woody energy crops or allowing forest regrowth to create a carbon sink. We do not present this as a scenario of land‐use change – we simply assess the best option in any given global location should a land‐use change occur. To do this, we use global biomass potential studies based on food crop productivity, forest inventory data and dynamic global vegetation models to provide, for the first time, a global comparison of the climate change implications of either deploying bioenergy crops or allowing forest regeneration on current crop land, over a period of 20 years starting in the nominal year of 2000 ad . Globally, the extent of cropland on which conversion to energy crops or forest would result in a net carbon loss, and therefore likely always to remain as cropland, was estimated to be about 420.1 Mha, or 35.6% of the total cropland in Africa, 40.3% in Asia and Russia Federation, 30.8% in Europe‐25, 48.4% in North America, 13.7% in South America and 58.5% in Oceania. Fast growing C₄ grasses such as Miscanthus and switch‐grass cultivars are the bioenergy feedstock with the highest climate mitigation potential. Fast growing C₄ grasses such as Miscanthus and switch‐grass cultivars provide the best climate mitigation option on ≈485 Mha of cropland worldwide with ~42% of this land characterized by a terrain slope equal or above 20%. If that land‐use change did occur, it would displace ≈58.1 Pg fossil fuel C equivalent (C_eq oil). Woody energy crops such as poplar, willow and Eucalyptus species would be the best option on only 2.4% (≈26.3 Mha) of current cropland, and if this land‐use change occurred, it would displace ≈0.9 Pg C_eq oil. Allowing cropland to revert to forest would be the best climate mitigation option on ≈17% of current cropland (≈184.5 Mha), and if this land‐use change occurred, it would sequester ≈5.8 Pg C in biomass in the 20‐year‐old forest and ≈2.7 Pg C in soil. This study is spatially explicit, so also serves to identify the regional differences in the efficacy of different climate mitigation options, informing policymakers developing regionally or nationally appropriate mitigation actions.     

Biomass production and energy balance of Miscanthus over a period of 11 years: A case study in a large‐scale farm in Poland

Giant miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus Greef and Deuter) and Amur silver grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorus Maxim./Hack) are rhizomatous grasses with a C4 photosynthetic pathway that are widely cultivated as energy crops. For those species to be successfully used in bioenergy generation, their yields have to be maintained at a high level in the long term. The biomass yield (fresh and dry matter [DM] yield) and energy efficiency (energy inputs, energy output, energy gain, and energy efficiency ratio) of giant miscanthus and Amur silver grass were compared in a field experiment conducted in 2007–2017 in North‐Eastern Poland. Both species were characterized by high above‐ground biomass yields, and the productive performance of M. × giganteus was higher in comparison with M. sacchariflorus (15.5 vs. 9.3 Mg DM ha^?1 year^?1 averaged for 1–11 years of growth). In the first year of the experiment, the energy inputs associated with the production of M. × giganteus and M. sacchariflorus were determined at 70.5 and 71.5 GJ/ha, respectively, and rhizomes accounted for around 78%–79% of total energy inputs. In the remaining years of cultivation, the total energy inputs associated with the production of both perennial rhizomatous grasses reached 13.6–15.7 (M. × giganteus) and 16.9–17.5 GJ ha^?1 year^?1 (M. sacchariflorus). Beginning from the second year of cultivation, mineral fertilizers were the predominant energy inputs in the production of M. × giganteus (78%–86%) and M. sacchariflorus (80%–82%). In years 2–11, the energy gain of M. × giganteus reached 50 (year 2) and 264–350 GJ ha^?1 year^?1 (years 3–11), and its energy efficiency ratio was determined at 4.7 (year 2) and 18.6–23.3 (years 3–11). The energy gain and the energy efficiency ratio of M. sacchariflorus biomass in the corresponding periods were determined at 87–234 GJ ha^?1 year^?1 and 6.1–14.3, respectively. Both grasses are significant and environmentally compatible sources of bioenergy, and they can be regarded as potential energy crops for Central‐Eastern Europe.     

Renewable jet fuel supply scenarios in the European Union in 2021–2030 in the context of proposed biofuel policy and competing biomass demand

This study presents supply scenarios of nonfood renewable jet fuel (RJF) in the European Union (EU) toward 2030, based on the anticipated regulatory context, availability of biomass and conversion technologies, and competing biomass demand from other sectors (i.e., transport, heat, power, and chemicals). A cost optimization model was used to identify preconditions for increased RJF production and the associated emission reductions, costs, and impact on competing sectors. Model scenarios show nonfood RJF supply could increase from 1 PJ in 2021 to 165–261 PJ/year (3.8–6.1 million tonne (Mt)/year) by 2030, provided advanced biofuel technologies are developed and adequate (policy) incentives are present. This supply corresponds to 6%–9% of jet fuel consumption and 28%–41% of total nonfood biofuel consumption in the EU. These results are driven by proposed policy incentives and a relatively high fossil jet fuel price compared to other fossil fuels. RJF reduces aviation‐related combustion emission by 12–19 Mt/year CO₂‐eq by 2030, offsetting 53%–84% of projected emission growth of the sector in the EU relative to 2020. Increased RJF supply mainly affects nonfood biofuel use in road transport, which remained relatively constant during 2021–2030. The cost differential of RJF relative to fossil jet fuel declines from 40 €/GJ (1,740 €/t) in 2021 to 7–13 €/GJ (280–540 €/t) in 2030, because of the introduction of advanced biofuel technologies, technological learning, increased fossil jet fuel prices, and reduced feedstock costs. The cumulative additional costs of RJF equal €7.7–11 billion over 2021–2030 or €1.0–1.4 per departing passenger (intra‐EU) when allocated to the aviation sector. By 2030, 109–213 PJ/year (2.5–4.9 Mt/year) RJF is produced from lignocellulosic biomass using technologies which are currently not yet commercialized. Hence, (policy) mechanisms that expedite technology development are cardinal to the feasibility and affordability of increasing RJF production.     

Watershed‐scale impacts of bioenergy crops on hydrology and water quality using improved SWAT model

Cellulosic bioenergy feedstock such as perennial grasses and crop residues are expected to play a significant role in meeting US biofuel production targets. We used an improved version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to forecast impacts on watershed hydrology and water quality by implementing an array of plausible land‐use changes associated with commercial bioenergy crop production for two watersheds in the Midwest USA. Watershed‐scale impacts were estimated for 13 bioenergy crop production scenarios, including: production of Miscanthus × giganteus and upland Shawnee switchgrass on highly erodible landscape positions, agricultural marginal land areas and pastures, removal of corn stover and combinations of these options. Water quality, measured as erosion and sediment loading, was forecasted to improve compared to baseline when perennial grasses were used for bioenergy production, but not with stover removal scenarios. Erosion reduction with perennial energy crop production scenarios ranged between 0.2% and 59%. Stream flow at the watershed outlet was reduced between 0 and 8% across these bioenergy crop production scenarios compared to baseline across the study watersheds. Results indicate that bioenergy production scenarios that incorporate perennial grasses reduced the nonpoint source pollutant load at the watershed outlet compared to the baseline conditions (0–20% for nitrate‐nitrogen and 3–56% for mineral phosphorus); however, the reduction rates were specific to site characteristics and management practices.     

Adult activity and oviposition of corn rootworms,Diabrotica spp. (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), in Miscanthus,corn and switchgrass

The ability of the biomass crop Miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus Greef and Deuter ex Hodkinson and Renvoize) to support larval development for both United States and European populations of the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte, suggests an avenue for interactions with corn (Zea mays L.). To provide context to survival of D. v. virgifera on Miscanthus, adult activity and oviposition of Diabrotica spp. were monitored in central Illinois in 2010–2011 in Miscanthus, corn and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.). For D. v. virgifera, vial traps within corn plots captured 3–10 times as many adults as in Miscanthus or switchgrass, while soil samples showed females laid approximately 10 times as many eggs in corn as in the perennial grasses. Adult southern corn rootworms, Diabrotica undecimpunctata howardi Barber, were the most abundant species in 2010 and clearly preferred switchgrass as an adult habitat, with vial traps in switchgrass capturing 5–10 times as many D. u. howardi as those in corn or Miscanthus. Based on the small production areas for Miscanthus and switchgrass (and low use of both by D. v. virgifera), it seems likely that there are no current impacts of these perennial grasses on pest status of Diabrotica spp. in corn or other crops. However, adaptations by Diabrotica spp. to pest management practices suggest they could be a source for interactions between biomass and food or feed crops. Early‐season soil samples did not recover eggs of D. u. howardi, but their use of switchgrass as an adult habitat suggests additional research in areas where switchgrass may be grown near peanuts, alfalfa or other hosts may be needed. Also, investigation of other candidate bioenergy crops known to support Diabrotica spp. larval development is needed to better understand the possible effects of a changing agricultural landscape on corn rootworms.     

Productivity and resistance to weed invasion in four prairie biomass feedstocks with different diversity

High‐diversity mixtures of native tallgrass prairie vegetation should be effective biomass feedstocks because of their high productivity and low input requirements. These diverse mixtures should also enhance several of the ecosystem services provided by the traditional monoculture feedstocks used for bioenergy. In this study, we compared biomass production, year‐to‐year variation in biomass production, and resistance to weed invasion in four prairie biomass feedstocks with different diversity: one species – a switchgrass monoculture; five species – a mix of C₄ grasses; 16 species – a mix of grasses, forbs, and legumes; and 32 species – a mix of grasses, forbs, legumes, and sedges. Each diversity treatment was replicated four times on three soil types for a total of 48 research plots (0.33–0.56 ha each). We measured biomass production by harvesting all plant material to ground level in ten randomly selected quadrats per plot. Weed biomass was measured as a subset of total biomass. We replicated this design over a five‐year period (2010–2014). Across soil types, the one‐, 16‐, and 32‐species treatments produced the same amount of biomass, but the one‐species treatment produced significantly more biomass than the five‐species treatment. The rank order of our four diversity treatments differed between soil types suggesting that soil type influences treatment productivity. Year‐to‐year variation in biomass production did not differ between diversity treatments. Weed biomass was higher in the one‐species treatment than the five‐, 16‐, and 32‐species treatments. The high productivity and low susceptibility to weed invasion of our 16‐ and 32‐species treatments supports the hypothesis that high‐diversity prairie mixtures would be effective biomass feedstocks in the Midwestern United States. The influence of soil type on relative feedstock performance suggests that seed mixes used for biomass should be specifically tailored to site characteristics for maximum productivity and stand success.     

Extent of industrial plantations on Southeast Asian peatlands in 2010 with analysis of historical expansion and future projections

Tropical peatlands cover over 25 Mha in Southeast Asia and are estimated to contain around 70 Gt of carbon. Peat swamp forest ecosystems are an important part of the region's natural resources supporting unique flora and fauna endemic to Southeast Asia. Over recent years, industrial plantation development on peatland, especially for oil palm cultivation, has created intense debate due to its potentially adverse social and environmental effects. The lack of objective up‐to‐date information on the extent of industrial plantations has complicated quantification of their regional and global environmental consequences, both in terms of loss of forest and biodiversity as well as increases in carbon emissions. Based on visual interpretation of high‐resolution (30 m) satellite images, we find that industrial plantations covered over 3.1 Mha (20%) of the peatlands of Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo in 2010, surpassing the area of Belgium and causing an annual carbon emission from peat decomposition of 230–310 Mt CO_2e. The majority (62%) of the plantations were located on the island of Sumatra, and over two‐thirds (69%) of all industrial plantations were developed for oil palm cultivation, with the remainder mostly being Acacia plantations for paper pulp production. Historical analysis shows strong acceleration of plantation development in recent years: 70% of all industrial plantations have been established since 2000 and only 4% of the current plantation area existed in 1990. ‘Business‐as‐usual’ projections of future conversion rates, based on historical rates over the past two decades, indicate that 6–9 Mha of peatland in insular Southeast Asia may be converted to plantations by the year 2020, unless land use planning policies or markets for products change. This would increase the annual carbon emission to somewhere between 380 and 920 Mt CO_2e by 2020 depending on water management practices and the extent of plantations.     

Land‐use legacies regulate decomposition dynamics following bioenergy crop conversion

Land‐use conversion into bioenergy crop production can alter litter decomposition processes tightly coupled to soil carbon and nutrient dynamics. Yet, litter decomposition has been poorly described in bioenergy production systems, especially following land‐use conversion. Predicting decomposition dynamics in postconversion bioenergy production systems is challenging because of the combined influence of land‐use legacies with current management and litter quality. To evaluate how land‐use legacies interact with current bioenergy crop management to influence litter decomposition in different litter types, we conducted a landscape‐scale litterbag decomposition experiment. We proposed land‐use legacies regulate decomposition, but their effects are weakened under higher quality litter and when current land use intensifies ecosystem disturbance relative to prior land use. We compared sites left in historical land uses of either agriculture (AG) or Conservation Reserve Program grassland (CRP) to those that were converted to corn or switchgrass bioenergy crop production. Enzyme activities, mass loss, microbial biomass, and changes in litter chemistry were monitored in corn stover and switchgrass litter over 485 days, accompanied by similar soil measurements. Across all measured variables, legacy had the strongest effect (P < 0.05) relative to litter type and current management, where CRP sites maintained higher soil and litter enzyme activities and microbial biomass relative to AG sites. Decomposition responses to conversion depended on legacy but also current management and litter type. Within the CRP sites, conversion into corn increased litter enzymes, microbial biomass, and litter protein and lipid abundances, especially on decomposing corn litter, relative to nonconverted CRP. However, conversion into switchgrass from CRP, a moderate disturbance, often had no effect on switchgrass litter decomposition parameters. Thus, legacies shape the direction and magnitude of decomposition responses to bioenergy crop conversion and therefore should be considered a key influence on litter and soil C cycling under bioenergy crop management.     

Integrating future scenario‐based crop expansion and crop conditions to map switchgrass biofuel potential in eastern Nebraska,USA

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) has been evaluated as one potential source for cellulosic biofuel feedstocks. Planting switchgrass in marginal croplands and waterway buffers can reduce soil erosion, improve water quality, and improve regional ecosystem services (i.e. it serves as a potential carbon sink). In previous studies, we mapped high risk marginal croplands and highly erodible cropland buffers that are potentially suitable for switchgrass development, which would improve ecosystem services and minimally impact food production. In this study, we advance our previous study results and integrate future crop expansion information to develop a switchgrass biofuel potential ensemble map for current and future croplands in eastern Nebraska. The switchgrass biomass productivity and carbon benefits (i.e. NEP: net ecosystem production) for the identified biofuel potential ensemble areas were quantified. The future scenario‐based (‘A1B’) land use and land cover map for 2050, the US Geological Survey crop type and Compound Topographic Index (CTI) maps, and long‐term (1981–2010) averaged annual precipitation data were used to identify future crop expansion regions that are suitable for switchgrass development. Results show that 2528 km² of future crop expansion regions (~3.6% of the study area) are potentially suitable for switchgrass development. The total estimated biofuel potential ensemble area (including cropland buffers, marginal croplands, and future crop expansion regions) is 4232 km² (~6% of the study area), potentially producing 3.52 million metric tons of switchgrass biomass per year. Converting biofuel ensemble regions to switchgrass leads to potential carbon sinks (the total NEP for biofuel potential areas is 0.45 million metric tons C) and is environmentally sustainable. Results from this study improve our understanding of environmental conditions and ecosystem services of current and future cropland systems in eastern Nebraska and provide useful information to land managers to make land use decisions regarding switchgrass development.     

The role of bioenergy and biochemicals in CO2 mitigation through the energy system – a scenario analysis for the Netherlands

Bioenergy as well as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage are key options to embark on cost‐efficient trajectories that realize climate targets. Most studies have not yet assessed the influence on these trajectories of emerging bioeconomy sectors such as biochemicals and renewable jet fuels (RJFs). To support a systems transition, there is also need to demonstrate the impact on the energy system of technology development, biomass and fossil fuel prices. We aim to close this gap by assessing least‐cost pathways to 2030 for a number of scenarios applied to the energy system of the Netherlands, using a cost‐minimization model. The type and magnitude of biomass deployment are highly influenced by technology development, fossil fuel prices and ambitions to mitigate climate change. Across all scenarios, biomass consumption ranges between 180 and 760 PJ and national emissions between 82 and 178 Mt CO₂. High technology development leads to additional 100–270 PJ of biomass consumption and 8–20 Mt CO₂ emission reduction compared to low technology development counterparts. In high technology development scenarios, additional emission reduction is primarily achieved by bioenergy and carbon capture and storage. Traditional sectors, namely industrial biomass heat and biofuels, supply 61–87% of bioenergy, while wind turbines are the main supplier of renewable electricity. Low technology pathways show lower biochemical output by 50–75%, do not supply RJFs and do not utilize additional biomass compared to high technology development. In most scenarios the emission reduction targets for the Netherlands are not met, as additional reduction of 10–45 Mt CO₂ is needed. Stronger climate policy is required, especially in view of fluctuating fossil fuel prices, which are shown to be a key determinant of bioeconomy development. Nonetheless, high technology development is a no‐regrets option to realize deep emission reduction as it also ensures stable growth for the bioeconomy even under unfavourable conditions.     

Bioenergy Crops and Carbon Sequestration

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions constitute a global problem. The need for agricultural involvement in GHG mitigation has been widely recognized since the 1990s. The concept of C sinks, C credits, and emission trading has attracted special interests in herbaceous and woody species as energy crops and source of biofuel feedstock. Bioenergy crops are defined as any plant material used to produce bioenergy. These crops have the capacity to produce large volume of biomass, high energy potential, and can be grown in marginal soils. Planting bioenergy crops in degraded soils is one of the promising agricultural options with C sequestration rates ranging from 0.6 to 3.0 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1. About 60 million hectares (Mha) of land is available in the United States and 757 Mha in the world to grow bioenergy crops. With an energy offset of 1 kg of C in biomass per 0.6 kg of C in fossil fuel, there exists a vast potential of offsetting fossil fuel emission. Bioenergy crops have the potential to sequester approximately 318 Tg C yr^?1 in the United States and 1631 Tg C yr^?1 worldwide. Bioenergy crops consist of herbaceous bunch-type grasses and short-rotation woody perennials. Important grasses include switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), elephant grass (Pennissetum purpureum Schum.), tall fescue (Fetusca arundinacea L.), etc. Important among short-rotation woody perennials are poplar (Populus spp.), willow (Salix spp.), mesquite (Prosopis spp.), etc. The emissions of CO₂ from using switchgrass as energy crop is 1.9 kg C Gj^?1 compared with 13.8, 22.3, and 24.6 kg C Gj^?1 from using gas, petroleum, and coal, respectively. Mitigation of GHG emissions cannot be achieved by C sinks alone, a substantial reduction in fossil fuel combustion will be necessary. Carbon sequestration and fossil fuel offset by bioenergy crops is an important component of a possible total societal response to a GHG emission reduction initiative.     

Potential impacts on ecosystem services of land use transitions to second‐generation bioenergy crops in GB

We present the first assessment of the impact of land use change (LUC) to second‐generation (2G) bioenergy crops on ecosystem services (ES) resolved spatially for Great Britain (GB). A systematic approach was used to assess available evidence on the impacts of LUC from arable, semi‐improved grassland or woodland/forest, to 2G bioenergy crops, for which a quantitative ‘threat matrix’ was developed. The threat matrix was used to estimate potential impacts of transitions to either Miscanthus, short‐rotation coppice (SRC, willow and poplar) or short‐rotation forestry (SRF). The ES effects were found to be largely dependent on previous land uses rather than the choice of 2G crop when assessing the technical potential of available biomass with a transition from arable crops resulting in the most positive effect on ES. Combining these data with constraint masks and available land for SRC and Miscanthus (SRF omitted from this stage due to lack of data), south‐west and north‐west England were identified as areas where Miscanthus and SRC could be grown, respectively, with favourable combinations of economic viability, carbon sequestration, high yield and positive ES benefits. This study also suggests that not all prospective planting of Miscanthus and SRC can be allocated to agricultural land class (ALC) ALC 3 and ALC 4 and suitable areas of ALC 5 are only minimally available. Beneficial impacts were found on 146 583 and 71 890 ha when planting Miscanthus or SRC, respectively, under baseline planting conditions rising to 293 247 and 91 318 ha, respectively, under 2020 planting scenarios. The results provide an insight into the interplay between land availability, original land uses, bioenergy crop type and yield in determining overall positive or negative impacts of bioenergy cropping on ecosystems services and go some way towards developing a framework for quantifying wider ES impacts of this important LUC.     

Spatiotemporal land use modelling to assess land availability for energy crops – illustrated for Mozambique

A method and tool have been developed to assess future developments in land availability for bioenergy crops in a spatially explicit way, while taking into account both the developments in other land use functions, such as land for food, livestock and material production, and the uncertainties in the key determinant factors of land use change (LUC). This spatiotemporal LUC model is demonstrated with a case study on the developments in the land availability for bioenergy crops in Mozambique in the timeframe 2005–2030. The developments in the main drivers for agricultural land use, demand for food, animal products and materials were assessed, based on the projected developments in population, diet, GDP and self‐sufficiency ratio. Two scenarios were developed: a business‐as‐usual (BAU) scenario and a progressive scenario. Land allocation was based on land use class‐specific sets of suitability factors. The LUC dynamics were mapped on a 1 km² grid level for each individual year up to 2030. In the BAU scenario, 7.7 Mha and in the progressive scenario 16.4 Mha could become available for bioenergy crop production in 2030. Based on the Monte Carlo analysis, a 95% confidence interval of the amount of land available and the spatially explicit probability of available land was found. The bottom‐up approach, the number of dynamic land uses, the diverse portfolio of LUC drivers and suitability factors, and the possibility to model uncertainty mean that this model is a step forward in modelling land availability for bioenergy potentials.     

Mitigation potential and environmental impact of centralized versus distributed BECCS with domestic biomass production in Great Britain

New contingency policy plans are expected to be published by the United Kingdom government to set out urgent actions, such as carbon capture and storage, greenhouse gas removal and the use of sustainable bioenergy to meet the greenhouse gas reduction targets of the 4th and 5th Carbon Budgets. In this study, we identify two plausible bioenergy production pathways for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) based on centralized and distributed energy systems to show what BECCS could look like if deployed by 2050 in Great Britain. The extent of agricultural land available to sustainably produce biomass feedstock in the centralized and distributed energy systems is about 0.39 and 0.5 Mha, providing approximately 5.7 and 7.3 Mt_DM/year of biomass respectively. If this land‐use change occurred, bioenergy crops would contribute to reduced agricultural soil GHG emission by 9 and 11 /year in the centralized and distributed energy systems respectively. In addition, bioenergy crops can contribute to reduce agricultural soil ammonia emissions and water pollution from soil nitrate leaching, and to increase soil organic carbon stocks. The technical mitigation potentials from BECCS lead to projected CO₂ reductions of approximately 18 and 23 /year from the centralized and distributed energy systems respectively. This suggests that the domestic supply of sustainable biomass would not allow the emission reduction target of 50 /year from BECCS to be met. To meet that target, it would be necessary to produce solid biomass from forest systems on 0.59 or 0.49 Mha, or alternatively to import 8 or 6.6 Mt_DM/year of biomass for the centralized and distributed energy system respectively. The spatially explicit results of this study can serve to identify the regional differences in the potential capture of CO₂ from BECCS, providing the basis for the development of onshore CO₂ transport infrastructures.