Why decadal to century timescale palaeoclimate data are needed to explain present‐day patterns of biological diversity and change

The current distribution of species, environmental conditions and their interactions represent only one snapshot of a planet that is continuously changing, in part due to human influences. To distinguish human impacts from natural factors, the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, since the Last Glacial Maximum, are often used to determine whether patterns of diversity today are artefacts of past climate change. In the absence of high‐temporal resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions, this is generally done by assuming that past climate change occurred at a linear pace between widely spaced (usually, ≥1,000 years) climate snapshots. We show here that this is a flawed assumption because regional climates have changed significantly across decades and centuries during glacial–interglacial cycles, likely causing rapid regional replacement of biota. We demonstrate how recent atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the climate of the past 21,000 years can provide credible estimates of the details of climate change on decadal to centennial timescales, showing that these details differ radically from what might be inferred from longer timescale information. High‐temporal resolution information can provide more meaningful estimates of the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, the location and timing of drivers of physiological stress, and the extent of novel climates. They also produce new opportunities to directly investigate whether short‐term climate variability is more important in shaping biodiversity patterns rather than gradual changes in long‐term climatic means. Together, these more accurate measures of past climate instability are likely to bring about a better understanding of the role of palaeoclimatic change and variability in shaping current macroecological patterns in many regions of the world.     

Anatomical characteristics of xylem in tree rings and its relationship with environments

The anatomical traits of xylem are the characteristics of tree rings at the cellular and subcellular scales, and are often reflection of environmental signals. Studying the relationships between anatomical traits of xylem and environmental change not only provide physiological explanations to the statistics in dendroclimatology, but can also provide a new vision for studying the adaptation process and response strategies of tree growth to climate change. In this paper, with the relationships between the anatomical characteristics of xylem in tree-rings (cell chronology) and climate change as a main thread, we first outline the basic principles and mechanisms of wood anatomical features to record environmental signals, and expounded the basic methods involved in the process of xylem anatomy. Secondly, we discuss the relationship between the anatomical features of xylem and climate factors. We then propose the following as possible directions of future research based on the existing knowledge gap in the topical area: (1) to explore the temporal and spatial variations in the anatomical characteristics of xylem in tree-rings along radial and tangential directions and the relationships with environmental changes; (2) to explore the threshold of tree growth response to environmental plasticity and adaptation processes; (3) to assess the synergistic and antagonistic effects as well as the formation mechanisms of climate response among different tree-ring proxies, and to determine the specific roles and contributions of major climatic factors during different periods of tree-ring formation.     

Dendrochronology in the tropics using tree-rings of Pinus kesiya

The recent decade has witnessed considerable progress in the number of tree-ring studies using the tropical conifer taxa, Pinus kesiya. Several tree-ring networks have been established in less explored regions in Northeast India, Southwest China and Vietnam. The seasonal climate response of P. kesiya tree-rings has been examined and used to reconstruct temperature and soil moisture variability over the past century and augment the short instrumental records in South and Southeast Asia. In addition to standard approaches, the application of stable isotope, wood density, and blue intensity measurements indicates a significant development in P. kesiya studies. This review elaborates the future prospects of using multiple tree-ring parameters to establish discrete proxies besides tree-ring width. We recommend blue intensity as a cost-effective alternative to quantitative wood anatomy in tropical pines, and call for routine assessments of the temporal stability of climate-growth responses to identify and study potentially non-stationary climate signals. Efforts should be made towards developing extensive networks of long P. kesiya tree-ring chronologies to extend regional climate reconstructions.     

Anatomical characteristics of xylem in tree rings and its relationship with environments北大核心CSCD

The anatomical traits of xylem are the characteristics of tree rings at the cellular and subcellular scales, and are often reflection of environmental signals. Studying the relationships between anatomical traits of xylem and environmental change not only provide physiological explanations to the statistics in dendroclimatology, but can also provide a new vision for studying the adaptation process and response strategies of tree growth to climate change. In this paper, with the relationships between the anatomical characteristics of xylem in tree-rings (cell chronology) and climate change as a main thread, we first outline the basic principles and mechanisms of wood anatomical features to record environmental signals, and expounded the basic methods involved in the process of xylem anatomy. Secondly, we discuss the relationship between the anatomical features of xylem and climate factors. We then propose the following as possible directions of future research based on the existing knowledge gap in the topical area: (1) to explore the temporal and spatial variations in the anatomical characteristics of xylem in tree-rings along radial and tangential directions and the relationships with environmental changes; (2) to explore the threshold of tree growth response to environmental plasticity and adaptation processes; (3) to assess the synergistic and antagonistic effects as well as the formation mechanisms of climate response among different tree-ring proxies, and to determine the specific roles and contributions of major climatic factors during different periods of tree-ring formation.     

Expanded spatial extent of the Medieval Climate Anomaly revealed in lake‐sediment records across the boreal region in northwest Ontario

Multi‐decadal to centennial‐scale shifts in effective moisture over the past two millennia are inferred from sedimentary records from six lakes spanning a ~250 km region in northwest Ontario. This is the first regional application of a technique developed to reconstruct drought from drainage lakes (open lakes with surface outlets). This regional network of proxy drought records is based on individual within‐lake calibration models developed using diatom assemblages collected from surface sediments across a water‐depth gradient. Analysis of diatom assemblages from sediment cores collected close to the near‐shore ecological boundary between benthic and planktonic diatom taxa indicated this boundary shifted over time in all lakes. These shifts are largely dependent on climate‐driven influences, and can provide a sensitive record of past drought. Our lake‐sediment records indicate two periods of synchronous signals, suggesting a common large‐scale climate forcing. The first is a period of prolonged aridity during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, c. 900‐1400 CE). Documentation of aridity across this region expands the known spatial extent of the MCA megadrought into a region that historically has not experienced extreme droughts such as those in central and western north America. The second synchronous period is the recent signal of the past ~100 years, which indicates a change to higher effective moisture that may be related to anthropogenic forcing on climate. This approach has the potential to fill regional gaps, where many previous paleo‐lake depth methods (based on deeper centrally located cores) were relatively insensitive. By filling regional gaps, a better understanding of past spatial patterns in drought can be used to assess the sensitivity and realism of climate model projections of future climate change. This type of data is especially important for validating high spatial resolution, regional climate models.     

Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change

Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being, but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here, we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change, thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk, measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected, is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value, but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast, most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value, but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change, our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended 'north-south' transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate change.     

Quaternary and pre‐Quaternary historical legacies in the global distribution of a major tropical plant lineage

Aim The relative importance of current climate and past historical legacies is hotly debated. Here, we assess their role in determining the global distribution and diversity patterns of palms (Arecaceae), a widespread, species‐rich group of keystone ecological importance in tropical ecosystems. Location Global. Methods We assembled country‐level species lists world‐wide and compiled associated data on potential contemporary environmental drivers (current climate, habitat heterogeneity, area, and insularity), Quaternary glacial–interglacial climate change and major biogeographic regions to evaluate to what extent the global distribution and species richness patterns in palms reflect Quaternary climatic oscillations or regional effects reflecting pre‐Quaternary legacies. We also assessed for the first time if historical legacies differ between continents and islands, providing novel insights into determinants of insular species richness. Results Palm species richness was significantly affected by Quaternary climate changes and further differed between biogeographic regions even when both current environmental conditions and Quaternary climate changes were accounted for. In contrast, global limits to the distribution of the palm family were best explained by current temperature while biogeographic regional differences were unimportant and Quaternary climate change caused only a small constraint. Historical legacies were weak on islands, with only a small regional effect and no effect of Quaternary climate changes. Main conclusions Strong historical legacies supplement current environment as determinants of palm species richness. These primarily comprise pre‐Quaternary historical effects, reflected in low African species richness (possibly linked to pre‐Quaternary extinctions) and outstandingly high Neotropical and Indomalayan palm species richness (possibly linked to these regions' long‐term climatic suitability for palms). In contrast to species richness, the global distribution of the family range is largely in equilibrium with current climate. The small historical effects on islands are consistent with climatic buffering from their oceanic environment.     

Seasonality matters—The effects of past and projected seasonal climate change on the growth of native and exotic conifer species in Central Europe

Norway spruce is one of the economically most important tree species in Central European forestry. However, its high susceptibility to droughts poses a strong challenge to its cultivation under future conditions with likely more frequent and prolonged droughts and shifts in the seasonal climate. To compensate for expected losses of forest areas suitable for the cultivation of spruce, more drought-tolerant species are required. Silver fir and Douglas fir are two potential candidates, which promise lower drought susceptibility and equal or even higher yield when compared to Norway spruce.Using the Black Forest as a regional case study, we assessed the effects of seasonal climate change, including drought stress, on tree-ring width formation of these three economically relevant conifer species over the last 60 years. In addition, we projected potential species-specific growth changes under different climate change scenarios until 2100.Our results suggest that both silver fir and Douglas fir will possibly experience growth increases in a warmer future climate, as predicted under the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios, whereas growth of spruce is expected to decline. Moreover, drought susceptibility in silver fir and Douglas fir is lower than in spruce, as shown for past drought events, and their ability to benefit from milder winters and springs could play a major role in their capacity to compensate for drier summers in the near to mid-term future. This study highlights the need to advance our understanding of the processes that drive drought resistance and resilience in tree species to guide management strategies in the face of climate change.     

黑龙江省未来气候生态与森林的作用研究

本文在扼要概述全球气候变化背景的基础上,根据近百年气候历史资料以及海温、太阳黑子活动、火山爆发、ＣＯ２浓度变化、Ｏ３浓度变化、大气环流指数特征等因子与我省气修变化的定量与定性关系,分析了各因子的综合影响,预测了我省未来十年气候变化趋势。结果表明：我省未来十年气候以温暖、干旱为主,年际间仍存有波动。虽然总的气候变化趋势与全球变化是一致的,但具有明显的区域特征。同时提出了气候变化可能对森林的影响,初步探讨了应采取的森林对策。     

祁连山东部青杄年内径向生长动态对气候的响应

树木径向生长对气候因子的响应是树轮气候学的基础。在我国西北地区,虽然已有大量的树轮-气候响应研究,但是响应分析多基于数理统计结果,缺乏对树木生长过程的理解。基于此,于2013年到2015年在祁连山东部吐鲁沟国家森林公园内通过Dendrometer连续监测了树轮气候重建中常用树种青杄的径向生长,通过平均值法提取2013到2015年生长季内不同时间尺度(1天、7天、10天)的平均径向生长量及对应时间段的平均气候状况。不同时间尺度径向生长量和气候因子的相关分析结果表明,时间尺度的延长削弱了树干水分昼夜变化的干扰,但水分仍然是青杄径向生长的限制因子。为了进一步分析青杄径向生长与气候关系随时间的变化情况,以31天为窗口将日径向生长量与气候要素每隔一天进行滑动相关,结果显示:5、7月青杄的径向生长与降水的关系稳定,都呈显著正相关,但是6月降水的年际变率较大,导致树木可利用水分的变幅也较大,因而树木径向生长与6月水分的响应关系不稳定,存在较大的年际差异,而这可能是一些树轮-气候响应研究中轮宽与6月降水关系不显著的原因。     

Response of Forest Trees to Increased Atmospheric CO 2

The CO ₂ fertilization hypothesis stipulates that rising atmospheric CO ₂ has a positive effect on tree growth due to increasing availability of carbon. The objective of this paper is to compare the recent literature related to both field CO ₂ -enriched experiments with trees and empirical dendrochronological studies detecting CO ₂ fertilization effects in tree-rings. This will allow evaluation of tree growth responses to atmospheric CO ₂ enrichment by combining evidence from both ecophysiology and tree-ring research. Based on considerable experimental evidence of direct CO ₂ fertilization effect (increased photosynthesis, water use efficiency, and above- and belowground biomass), and predications from the interactions of enriched CO ₂ with temperature, nitrogen and drought, we propose that warm, moderately drought-stressed ecosystems with an ample nitrogen supply might be the most CO ₂ responsive ecosystems. Empirical tree-ring studies took the following three viewpoints on detecting CO ₂ fertilization effect in tree-rings: 1) finding evidence of CO ₂ fertilization effect in tree-rings, 2) attributing growth enhancement to favorable climate rather than atmospheric CO ₂ enrichment, and 3) considering that tree growth enhancement might be caused by synergistic effects of several factors such as favorable climate change, CO ₂ fertilization, and anthropogenic atmospheric deposition (e.g., nitrogen). At temperature-limiting sites such as high elevations, nonfindings of CO ₂ fertilization evidence could be ascribed to the following possibilities: 1) cold temperatures, a short season of cambial division, and nitrogen deficiency that preclude a direct CO ₂ response, 2) old trees past half of their maximum life expectancy and consequently only a small increase in biomass increment due to CO ₂ fertilization effect might be diminished, 3) the elimination of age/size-related trends by statistical detrending of tree-ring series that might remove some long-term CO ₂ -related trends in tree-rings, and 4) carbon partitioning and growth within a plant that is species-specific. Our review supports the atmospheric CO ₂ fertilization effect hypothesis, at least in trees growing in semi-arid or arid conditions because the drought-stressed trees could benefit from increased water use efficiency to enhance growth.     

区域气候变化统计降尺度研究进展

统计降尺度方法(the Statistical Downscaling Methods, SDM)是为合理预测区域尺度的气候变化情景而提出的新型研究方法。统计降尺度法利用多年大气环流的观测资料建立大尺度气候要素和区域气候要素之间的统计关系,并用独立的观测资料检验这种关系的合理性。把这种关系应用于大气环流模式(Global atmospheric general circulation models, GCMs)中输出大尺度气候信息,来预估区域未来的气候变化情景(如气温和降水)。同时,10a来降尺度方法在生态过程模拟以及气候变化与生态预报关系拟合研究方面也取得一定进展。对统计降尺度方法概念的内涵和外延、基本原理和操作步骤的创新研究方面进行了综述,归纳了该方法在模拟区域气候变化中的应用进展、研究热点及发展趋势,介绍了降尺度在生态预报中的相关应用,为相关研究提供参考。     

Plant diversity in mediterranean-climate regions

The high plant diversity of mediterranean-climate regions has attracted much attention over the past few years. This review discusses patterns and determinants of local, differential and regional plant diversity in all five regions. Local diversity shows great variation within and between regions and explanations for these patterns invoke a wide range of hypotheses. Patterns of regional diversity are the result of differential speciation and extinction rates during the Quaternary. These rates have been influenced more by the incidence of fire and the severity of climate change than by environmental heterogeneity. All regions have a high number of rare and locally endemic taxa that survive as small populations, many of which are threatened by habitat transformation.     

柴达木盆地东缘青海云杉树轮细胞结构变化特征及其对气候的指示

基于青海柴达木盆地东缘山地青海云杉生长上限的树轮样本,在获取树轮宽度数据的同时,获取了细胞特征指标,包括细胞个数和细胞大小,建立了树轮早材、晚材、整轮的细胞个数标准年表和细胞大小的最大值、最小值年表,并通过与附近茶卡气象站过去31年（1970—2000年）逐月降水量和温度的相关分析和响应函数分析,从细胞尺度探讨了青海云杉生长与外界气候要素的关系.结果表明：早材细胞个数与冬半年（上年10月至当年3月）温度之间呈正相关关系;晚材细胞个数除了与11月和12月最低温度呈显著正相关外,还与生长季中7月和8月平均温度呈显著相关关系;早、晚材细胞个数同时与7月的降水量呈显著负相关.早材细胞个数与5月的降水量呈正相关关系.对于早材最大细胞大小的年表来说,其变化与2月的降水量变化有很好的一致性,而晚材最小细胞的大小与8月降水量的变化同步.细胞个数和细胞大小不仅记录了树轮宽度所记录的温度变化信息,还额外记录了一定的降水信息,说明不同的树木生长指标能够记录不同的气候信息.利用同一地点同一树种不同类型的树轮指标,能够提取多种气候要素的变化信息,这对将来从同一样点的树轮资料中提取更丰富的气候信息以及发掘树轮气候学的潜力具有一定意义.     

Tree growth-climate relationship in the Azorean holly in a temperate humid forest with low thermal amplitude

Dendroclimatic records in areas with high relative humidity and low thermal amplitude are manifestly scarcer and only a few studies are applied to species that are present in areas with weak seasonality. The Azores archipelago with temperate climate, with low thermal amplitude, has unique biodiversity, including the Azorean holly, Ilex azorica Gand., that is dominant in most extant natural forests. Hence, the importance of understanding its behavior and relation with climate. In this study, we try to understand tree-ring patterns of this species and examine the relationship between radial tree growth and main climatic drivers. For this purpose, we sampled four populations from São Miguel Island and two from Terceira Island. We found a diffuse-ring porous wood with a common layer of vessels associated to the ring boundary, which was critical to identify annual tree-rings. Generalized linear models were used to relate different variations of temperature and precipitation parameters, resulting into a diverse climate-growth relationships of different populations, while the composite population exhibited pronounced effect of temperature. We conclude that, I. azorica forms reliable annual tree-rings, which can be statistically related to climate, mostly temperature. However, there are differences among specific sites, thus the climate sensitivity depends on other site characteristics, such as soil and slope, but probable also to other ecological drivers, such as the competition, water drainage, among others.     

Environmental controls on the distribution and diversity of lentic Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) across an altitudinal gradient in tropical South America

To predict the response of aquatic ecosystems to future global climate change, data on the ecology and distribution of keystone groups in freshwater ecosystems are needed. In contrast to mid‐ and high‐latitude zones, such data are scarce across tropical South America (Neotropics). We present the distribution and diversity of chironomid species using surface sediments of 59 lakes from the Andes to the Amazon (0.1–17°S and 64–78°W) within the Neotropics. We assess the spatial variation in community assemblages and identify the key variables influencing the distributional patterns. The relationships between environmental variables (pH, conductivity, depth, and sediment organic content), climatic data, and chironomid assemblages were assessed using multivariate statistics (detrended correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis). Climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) were most significant in describing the variance in chironomid assemblages. Temperature and precipitation are both predicted to change under future climate change scenarios in the tropical Andes. Our findings suggest taxa of Orthocladiinae, which show a preference to cold high‐elevation oligotrophic lakes, will likely see range contraction under future anthropogenic‐induced climate change. Taxa abundant in areas of high precipitation, such as Micropsectra and Phaenopsectra, will likely become restricted to the inner tropical Andes, as the outer tropical Andes become drier. The sensitivity of chironomids to climate parameters makes them important bio‐indicators of regional climate change in the Neotropics. Furthermore, the distribution of chironomid taxa presented here is a vital first step toward providing urgently needed autecological data for interpreting fossil chironomid records of past ecological and climate change from the tropical Andes.     

Climate change-integrated conservation strategies

Aim Conservation strategies currently include little consideration of climate change. Insights about the biotic impacts of climate change from biogeography and palaeoecology, therefore, have the potential to provide significant improvements in the effectiveness of conservation planning. We suggest a collaboration involving biogeography, ecology and applied conservation. The resulting Climate Change‐integrated Conservation Strategies (CCS) apply available tools to respond to the conservation challenges posed by climate change. Location The focus of this analysis is global, with special reference to high biodiversity areas vulnerable to climate change, particularly tropical montane settings. Methods Current tools from climatology, biogeography and ecology applicable to conservation planning in response to climate change are reviewed. Conservation challenges posed by climate change are summarized. CCS elements are elaborated that use available tools to respond to these challenges. Results Five elements of CCS are described: regional modelling; expanding protected areas; management of the matrix; regional coordination; and transfer of resources. Regional modelling uses regional climate models, biotic response models and sensitivity analysis to identify climate change impacts on biodiversity at a regional scale appropriate for conservation planning. Expansion of protected areas management and systems within the planning region are based on modelling results. Management of the matrix between protected areas provides continuity for processes and species range shifts outside of parks. Regional coordination of park and off‐park efforts allows harmonization of conservation goals across provincial and national boundaries. Finally, implementation of these CCS elements in the most biodiverse regions of the world will require technical and financial transfer of resources on a global scale. Main conclusions Collaboration across disciplines is necessary to plan conservation responses to climate change adequately. Biogeography and ecology provide insights into the effects of climate change on biodiversity that have not yet been fully integrated into conservation biology and applied conservation management. CCS provide a framework in which biogeographers, ecologists and conservation managers can collaborate to address this need. These planning exercises take place on a regional level, driven by regional climate models as well as general circulation models (GCMs), to ensure that regional climate drivers such as land use change and mesoscale topography are adequately represented. Sensitivity analysis can help address the substantial uncertainty inherent in projecting future climates and biodiversity response.     

树轮灰度与树轮密度的对比分析及其对气候要素的响应

通过对比新疆巩乃斯地区艾肯达坂采样点雪岭云杉5种树轮灰度年表与其对应4种密度年表的特征参数、年表曲线及其在全频域、高频域及低频域上的相关系数,发现早材平均灰度和晚材平均灰度的变化能够较好的反映早材平均密度和晚材平均密度的变化,而年轮最大灰度和年轮最小灰度的变化对年轮最小密度和年轮最大密度的变化则反映较差.与这一地区气象资料的相关分析结果表明,当年5月至8月平均最高气温与年轮平均灰度年表的相关性最好且具有明确的树木生理学意义,最高单相关系数为-0.542 (P＜0.0001,n=51).证明了树轮灰度在历史时期气候变化研究中的应用潜力,同时也为将来在这一地区开展利用树轮灰度重建历史时期气候变化打下了基础.     

Pleistocene climatic changes drive diversification across a tropical savanna

Spatial responses of species to past climate change depend on both intrinsic traits (climatic niche breadth, dispersal rates) and the scale of climatic fluctuations across the landscape. New capabilities in generating and analysing population genomic data, along with spatial modelling, have unleashed our capacity to infer how past climate changes have shaped populations, and by extension, complex communities. Combining these approaches, we uncover lineage diversity across four codistributed lizards from the Australian Monsoonal Tropics and explore how varying climatic tolerances interact with regional climate history to generate common vs. disparate responses to late Pleistocene change. We find more divergent spatial structuring and temporal demographic responses in the drier Kimberley region compared to the more mesic and consistently suitable Top End. We hypothesize that, in general, the effects of species’ traits on sensitivity to climate fluctuation will be more evident in climatically marginal regions. If true, this points to the need in climatically marginal areas to craft more species‐(or trait)‐specific strategies for persistence under future climate change.     

Detecting the footprint of changing atmospheric nitrogen deposition loads on acid grasslands in the context of climate change

Although atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and climate changes are both recognized as major components of global change, their interaction at ecosystem level is less well understood. A stratified resampling approach was used to investigate the potential impact of changing levels of atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate change on species composition of nutrient‐poor acid grasslands within the French Atlantic Domain (FAD). The study was based on a comparison, over a period of 25 years, of 162 past and present vegetation records assigned to the species‐rich Nardus grasslands and distributed in regional community types (CTs). Similarly, the characterization of N deposition and climate was stratified according to (i) past (1980–1990) and present (1995–2005) periods, and (ii) FAD and CT scales. Despite the relatively short time span between sampling periods, significant N deposition and climate changes were detected as well as vegetation changes. Correspondence analysis showed that the relative importance of N deposition and climate in explaining vegetation changes depended on the spatial scale of investigation (FAD vs. local CTs) and the CT. At the FAD scale, the increase of annual mean temperature and decrease of water availability were clearly related to the changes in floristic composition. At the local scale, the most stable CT experienced no significant climate change and a stable load of N deposition, whereas the CTs characterized by the largest floristic changes were associated with dramatic climate changes and moderate loads in both oxidized and reduced N deposition. Despite the narrow gradient of deposition investigated, N deposition was related to significant grassland community changes, depending on the region, i.e. climate context, and on whether N deposition was in the oxidized or reduced form. Our results suggest that N deposition drives grassland composition at the local scale, in interaction with climate, whereas climate changes remain the predominant driver at the FAD scale.