不同栖息地破坏格局下具捕食偏爱似然竞争结局的模拟分析

使用元胞自动机模型,对具有捕食偏爱、不同栖息地破坏比例和不同空间破坏格局条件下的捕食-食饵系统中各物种的变化动态进行了模拟分析。在捕食者和两猎物物种共存时:栖息地破坏比例、栖息地破坏的聚集度对猎物物种间强弱关系产生相反的作用,若增加栖息地破坏比例不利于某一猎物生存,则提高聚集度对其有利;适当提高适宜栖息地的聚集度,对所有物种都有利,若聚集度过高,效果相当于减少了栖息地的破坏比例,可能对某些猎物物种不利,但对整体系统有利;被破坏栖息地的聚集度发生变化时,捕食者的反应更敏感;在一定条件下,增强弱势种群的捕食偏爱会有助于其生存。     

栖息地毁坏与动物物种灭绝关系的模拟研究

利用多个物种共存模式模拟了不同情况下的不同动物种群演化的动力学特性,研究结果表明：（1）由于栖息地的毁坏所导致的动手的种灭绝是依赖于对物种死亡率和有关平衡态的假设的,不同的假设下,既使栖息地的破坏率相同,灭绝的物种可能是竞争能力最强的若干物种,也可能是竞争能力相对较弱的若干物种,既不象传统的物种进化理论所认为的必是弱的物种先灭绝,也不象Tilman等人所认为的一定是最强的若干物种先灭绝;（2）如果弱的物种具有较高的平均死亡率,则当栖息地受到一定的毁坏时,将有较多强的物种灭绝,而且物种灭绝时间将大大缩短;（3）在物种死亡率不变的情形下,物种在未受毁坏栖息地上的平衡态和大占有率pl^0,将有利于物种的生存。     

不同栖息地状态下外来种入侵及对本地种生存影响的模拟

外来种入侵引起的生态及经济问题日益严重,人类活动导致大规模栖息地持续变化的背景下,外来种的入侵过程及本地物种多样性的演化更为复杂.在Tilman多物种共存模型基础上,建立了栖息地持续变化条件下的外来种入侵干扰模式,分别模拟了栖息地不变、持续毁坏及持续恢复条件下的外来种入侵及对本地物种多样性的生态影响.模拟结果表明:(1)拓殖率小(入侵性弱)的外来种不能成功定殖,栖息地的持续变化对其没有任何影响.(2)拓殖率增大的外来种入侵过程复杂,栖息地持续毁坏导致其灭绝时间相比于栖息地不变时明显推迟,栖息地持续恢复使其灭绝提前;一定时间内持续增加栖息地可以减小此类外来种入侵危害.(3)拓殖率足够大的外来种能够成功定殖,快速定殖-扩散的入侵过程不会因栖息地毁坏而迅速改变,其响应具有时间滞后性;栖息地持续恢复也有利于其迅速蔓延,占有率呈线性疯狂增长.(4)在具有外来种入侵的本地生态系统中,栖息地持续改变(增加或减少)对本地物种多样性的发展均不利.     

物种灭绝对不同时间尺度人类活动的响应机制研究

通过修改Tilman的多物种共存的经典模式中栖息地毁坏率（D）,使D随时间的推移呈线性增长情况下,本文模拟了百万年、万年和百年尺度人类活动对栖息地的破坏下,物种灭绝对栖息地毁坏的响应特征。结果表明,大时间尺度人类活动对栖息地毁坏导致物种的强弱关系发生变化,并且强物种先灭绝,而小时间尺度人类活动对栖息地破坏是弱物种先灭绝;在百万年和万年尺度上,物种对栖息地毁坏的响应是减幅振荡衰退直至灭绝,并且最强物种对栖息地的占有率（q）越大,振幅越大,而在百年尺度上,物种的演化几乎是直线衰退;在大时间尺度的栖息地毁坏情况下,q越大,则物种灭绝起始时间和所有物种灭绝的时间越长;而在较小的时间尺度的栖息地毁坏情况下,q越大,灭绝起始时间和所有物种最终灭绝的时间则越短。     

物种多样性对栖息地毁坏时间异质性的响应

栖息地毁坏是物种多样性丧失最重要的因素之一.通过多物种竞争共存的非自治动力模型,利用香农多样性指数,研究并比较了不同结构集合种群群落的物种多样性对不同程度和不同速度的栖息地毁坏时间异质性的响应.结果表明:在栖息地瞬间毁坏下,物种多样性先快速下降,之后得到一定程度的恢复,最终在下降中走向平衡;在栖息地持续完全毁坏下,栖息地毁坏速度对物种多样性随累积栖息地毁坏率变化的影响,只有在最强物种多度 (q)较小时比较明显,而在q较大时较小;对于栖息地持续部分毁坏,栖息地毁坏速度只影响物种多样性振荡的幅度,而不影响其变化的最终结果,并且速度越快,物种多样性振荡幅度越大,越不利于群落的稳定.     

不同栖息地状态下物种竞争模式及模拟研究与应用

物种竞争是影响生态系统演化的重要生态过程之一.而物种在受人类影响出现不同程度毁坏的栖息地上的演化又是非常复杂的,因此研究物种演化对栖息地毁坏的响应是非常必要的.在Tilman研究工作的基础上,将竞争系数引入集合种群动力模式,建立了多物种集合种群竞争共存的数学模型,并对5-物种集合种群在不同栖息地状态下的竞争动态进行了计算机模拟研究.结果表明：（1）不同结构的群落（q值不同）,物种之间的竞争排斥作用强度不同,优势物种明显的群落,物种之间的排斥强度大;（2）随着栖息地毁坏程度的增加,对优势物种的负面影响逐渐减小,而对弱势物种的负面影响逐渐增加;（3）随着栖息地恢复幅度的增加,优势物种和弱势物种之间的竞争越强烈,优势物种受到的竞争排斥加大,而弱势物种逐渐变强,出现了强者变弱、弱者变强的格局;（4）物种竞争排斥与共存受迁移扩散能力和竞争能力影响很大,竞争共存的条件是其竞争能力与扩散能力呈非线性负相关关系;（5）竞争共存的物种的强弱序列发生了变化.     

土地利用/覆被变化对生物栖息地连接度的影响——以巩义地区黄鼬、蒙古兔和黄喉貂为例

土地利用/覆被变化通过改变生物栖息地而对物种分布产生影响。以河南省巩义市为研究区域,选取分布在该区域的哺乳动物黄鼬(Mustela sibirica)、蒙古兔(Lepus tolai)和黄喉貂(Martes flavigula)为目标物种,首先依据其生物特性和生态需求,确定了这3个物种的扩散能力;其次,基于景观连接度原理,分析了1990—2011年研究区土地利用整体变化和各类型变化情况,及其对单一物种和多物种栖息地连接度变化的影响。研究结果表明:(1)土地利用整体变化使得栖息地连接度增加,变化范围为22.22%—45.46%;(2)各土地利用类型变化对栖息地连接度的影响差异显著,连接度的升高和降低与栖息地斑块面积增加和减少密切相关;(3)基于多目标物种栖息地整体连接度空间分布图,确定了研究区目标物种保护的关键区域。     

外来物种入侵后的多物种竞争共存的集合种群模型

基于多物种竞争共存模型,提出外来物种与本地物种竞争共存途径的两种假想:外来物种通过插队竞争与本地物种实现共存;外来物种通过等位竞争与本地物种实现共存.并提出根据外来物种在两种竞争共存模式下占据生境斑块比例的稳定值大小来判断外来物种和本地物种的竞争共存途径.根据两种假想,分别建立了外来物种插队竞争共存模型和等位竞争共存模型.通过应用数学软件Mathematica 4.0对两个模型进行了模拟,得出以下结论:在外来物种与本地物种竞争共存状态下,如果外来物种通过插队竞争与本地物种实现共存,当本地物种竞争力差异较大时,外来物种极易对本地稀少物种构成危害.虽然外来物种不会直接造成本地稀少物种的灭绝,但是会使本地稀少物种的生境斑块急剧减少,增加本地稀少物种灭绝的可能性,而当本地物种竞争力差异较小时,外来物种对本地所有物种的影响都较小.如果外来物种通过等位竞争与本地物种实现共存,无论本地物种竞争力差异大小与否,外来物种只是影响到与其生态位相同的本地物种,影响程度取决于外来物种侵入时所占据生境斑块的比例大小.     

天山中部雪豹栖息地适宜性研究初报

栖息地丧失和破碎化是许多濒危物种面临的主要威胁,对于分布在高原山地的濒危物种雪豹亦是如此。为了更好地了解天山雪豹的分布情况和栖息地质量,2018年11月至2019年6月,我们在天山中部借助红外相机开展野外调查,调查面积2 425 km²,共获得78个雪豹的出现位点。利用8个物种分布模型对雪豹在此地的生境选择建模,综合结果表明,崎岖度和海拔是影响雪豹分布的主要因素,其中崎岖度大于70和海拔1 700~2 900 m是雪豹出现频率最高的地区。集成模型空间预测显示大部分适宜栖息地集中于乌苏市以东至板房沟分局管辖地区。本研究通过野外调查和模型分析获得了天山中部雪豹的分布区域及环境因子对其的影响,为天山雪豹保护及跨境合作提供科学的数据支撑。     

基于栖息地恢复对群落不同种群演化影响的模拟

通过建立基于栖息地恢复的多种群演化动力学模式,模拟了不同群落结构的不同物种种群的演化特点。模拟结果发现了两类灭绝机制,揭示了(1)小规模栖息地的恢复对群落中的弱小物种的影响是非常有限的,不会给弱小物种种群带来灭绝风险。大幅度的栖息地增加几乎使所有的物种种群都在最初数百年中内都有出现一定的增加,特别是竞争能力最强的物种,其幅度的增加最为显著,但次最强的物种种群可能会在千年左右灭绝。群落内幸存的种群将经历3个阶段迅速壮大(增加)阶段震荡阶段稳定阶段;(2)存在着协同现象,栖息地减少所导致种群的协同演化规律与栖息地恢复所导致的种群的演化规律两者之间既有共同点,又有不同点。毁坏是一种破坏,大规模的栖息地的恢复对已适应于破坏后新环境的某些物种也可能是一种威胁,这类似于生态入侵的初始阶段。     

Responses of Metapopulation Dynamics to Two Different Kinds of Habitat Destruction Caused by Human Activities

Habitat destruction can be classified into instantaneous destruction and continuous destruction by the different ways of human destroying habitat. Previous studies, however, always focused on instantaneous destruction. In this study, we develop a universal model, Multi-time scale N-species model, to study and compare the responses of metapopulation dynamics to both kinds of habitat destruction. The model explores that: (1) under instantaneous habitat destruction, species extinction is determined by the proportion of habitat destruction (D) and the structure of metapopulation (q). When D>q, species will go extinct ranked from the best competitor to the worst. When D≤ q, no species will go extinct, but the equilibrium abundances of odd-ranked competitors will decrease, and the equilibrium abundances of even-ranked competitors will increase; (2) under continuous destruction, species extinction is dependent on the speed of habitat destruction and the metapopulation structure. The higher the speed of habitat destruction and the bigger q are, the earlier species go extinct. Usually, there are two possible mechanisms of species extinction: one is that all species go extinct collectively following complete destruction, and the other is that species go extinct in ranked competitive order from best to worst, and the survivals, if they exist, will go extinct collectively following complete destruction. The oscillation amplitudes of inferior competitors are so large as to increase the probability of stochastic extinction under instantaneous destruction. Therefore, it is relatively propitious for the persistence of rare species under slow and continuous destruction, especially when continuous destruction stops.     

物种演化对人类活动作用下不同性质栖息地毁坏的响应

栖息地毁坏是物种多样性减少的首要因素之一, 因此研究物种演化对栖息地毁坏的响应是非常必要的。而栖息地的毁坏又有瞬间毁坏和持续毁坏两种, 以往对栖息地毁坏的研究集中在瞬间毁坏上, 而该文则是通过N_物种 竞争共存模型分析对比了物种演化对栖息地瞬间毁坏和持续毁坏的响应特征。研究发现 :不同性质的栖息地毁坏都会导致物种强弱关系的变化, 并非如通常所认为的强物种将免于遭受物种灭绝的威胁, 也不是强物种首先灭绝, 而是因集合种群结构的不同而异。在热带雨林群落, 瞬间毁坏下物种演化一般经历了强迫适应和恢复上升阶段, 而持续毁坏下物种得不到恢复, 只能持续衰退, 在较长一段时间内持续毁坏比瞬间毁坏更有利于物种的续存 ;而在温带森林群落, 瞬间毁坏下物种演化一般经历强迫适应, 恢复上升和准周期振荡, 最后平衡, 而持续毁坏下物种只能持续衰退, 出现了在栖息地持续毁坏率小于瞬间毁坏率时, 物种的栖息地占有率却小于瞬间毁坏时的占有率。     

How species diversity responds to different kinds of human-caused habitat destruction

Human-caused habitat destruction, the major cause of species diversity losses, can be classified into two basic types, instantaneous destruction and continuous destruction. Thus, a universal model should be established to simulate and forecast the effects of different kinds of habitat destruction on species diversity during different historical periods. In this paper, we explore a multi-time-scale n-species model to study and compare species responses to instantaneous and continuous destruction. We find that (1) under instantaneous destruction, there are two different mechanisms of species extinction: one is a time-delayed deterministic extinction of superior competitors in order from the best to the poorest; the other is the extinction in a short time of inferior competitors. The survivors will experience three phases: decline, adjustment, and equilibrium. (2) When the total amounts of habitat destruction for both instantaneous and continuous cases are equal, the oscillation amplitudes of species abundances under instantaneous destruction are much greater than under continuous destruction, especially for inferior competitors, which make inferior competitors under instantaneous destruction more prone to stochastic extinction. Therefore instantaneous destruction is more detrimental to the survival of inferior competitors. (3) Under continuous destruction with habitat eventually being destroyed completely, there also are two types of species extinction mechanisms: the first is extinction in order from the best competitors to the poorest before complete destruction; the second is collective extinction due to complete destruction.     

Habitat Loss,Fragmentation, and Restoration

The loss and fragmentation of habitat is a major threat to the continued survival of many species. We argue that, by including spatial processes in restoration management plans, the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation can be offset. Yet few management plans take into account spatial effects of habitat conservation/restoration despite the importance of spatial dynamics in species conservation and recovery plans. Tilman et al. (1997) found a “restoration lag” in simulations of species restoration when randomly selecting habitat for restoration. Other studies have suggested that the placement of restored habitat can overcome effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Here we report the findings of simulations that examine different regional management strategies, focusing on habitat selection. We find that nonrandom restoration practices such as restoring only habitat that is adjacent to those occupied by the target species can dramatically reduce or negate any restoration lag. In fact, we find that the increase in patch occupancy of the landscape can be greater than two-fold in the adjacent versus the random scenarios after only two restoration events, and this increase can be as great as six-fold during the early restoration phase. Many restoration efforts have limitations on both funds and available sites for restoration, necessitating high potential success on any restoration efforts. The incorporation of spatial analyses in restoration management may drastically improve a species' chance of recovery. Therefore, general principles that incorporate spatial processes and sensible management are needed to guide specific restoration efforts.     

Habitat selection,interspecific interactions and landscape composition

Summary I argue here that, from the perspective of any individual, most landscapes are composed of only three basic types of habitats. These are: (1) source habitat in which reproduction exceeds mortality and the expected per capita growth rate is greater than one; (2) sink habitat, in which limited, reproduction is possible but will not on average, compensate for mortality and the per capita rate of growth is between zero and one; and (3) unusable habitat, which comprises the matrix of all habitats that are never exploited by the species in question, and in which patches of source and sink habitats are embedded. Unlike earlier source-sink models, this model explicitly considers the effects that substituting one type of habitat for another has on the equilibrium size of a population and the interactions between species which can use both source and sink habitats. The model demonstrates that the equilibrium size of a species' population can sometimes be increased by substituting unusable habitat for sink habitat. Thus, even though the average patch quality in the landscape may be decreased, the overall quality of the landscape can increase. For two species with distinct habitat preferences, interactions between species can vary qualitatively as well as quantitatively as a function of the relative abundances of each of the habitat types. The model also shows that the interactions between species are particularly sensitive to the relative costs of moving between patches and sampling patches to determine their quality. Recent fragmentation of natural landscapes may increase the cost of searching for usable (source or sink) patches. Under some conditions, the interspecific interactions may be substantially more negative (competitive) than the interactions that evolved in the original natural landscape, further reducing population sizes and increasing the likelihood of competitive exclusion in fragmented modern landscapes.     

基于竞争和扩散能力的非捕食-被捕食集合种群系统的竞争机制

对于非捕食 被捕食(食饵)生态系统,强弱物种之间存在一定的竞争影响.在不考虑栖息地毁坏的情况下,引进双向竞争机制,将Tilman的单向竞争模式推广为n集合种群双向竞争模型,并对6-集合种群的竞争动态进行了计算机模拟研究.结果表明,在平衡态,种群竞争共存的条件是其竞争能力与扩散能力呈现指数型负相关关系,竞争的结果使物种的强弱序列发生变化;物种竞争排除与共存受迁移扩散能力和竞争能力影响很大,在局域斑块上竞争排斥的集合种群在广域尺度上可以竞争共存,即逃亡共存.     

Extinction debt in source-sink metacommunities

In an increasingly modified world, understanding and predicting the consequences of landscape alteration on biodiversity is a challenge for ecologists. To this end, metacommunity theory has developed to better understand the complexity of local and regional interactions that occur across larger landscapes. While metacommunity ecology has now provided several alternative models of species coexistence at different spatial scales, predictions regarding the consequences of landscape alteration have been done exclusively for the competition-colonization trade off model (CC). In this paper we investigate the effects of landscape perturbation on source-sink metacommunities. We show that habitat destruction perturbs the equilibria among species competitive effects within the metacommunity, driving both direct extinctions and an indirect extinction debt. As in CC models, we found a time lag for extinction following habitat destruction that varied in length depending upon the relative importance of direct and indirect effects. However, in contrast to CC models, we found that the less competitive species are more affected by habitat destruction. The best competitors can sometimes even be positively affected by habitat destruction, which corresponds well with the results of field studies. Our results are complementary to those results found in CC models of metacommunity dynamics. From a conservation perspective, our results illustrate that landscape alteration jeopardizes species coexistence in patchy landscapes through complex indirect effects and delayed extinctions patterns.     

人类周期性活动对物种多样性的影响及其预测

人类活动通过作用于栖息地而影响着物种的种群动态,从而影响着物种多样性的变化。首次提出了不同时间尺度人类周期性活动干扰下的多物种竞争动力模式,模拟了千年时间尺度,物种多样性对人类周期性活动的响应过程,开展了人类周期性活动所导致的物种多样性的量的变化的预测研究。有关模拟和预测结果表明:在人类周期性活动的作用下,物种多度变化对栖息地变化的响应也做准周期振荡;同时人类活动强度越大,物种多度振荡的幅度也越大;并且在栖息地减少过程中,人类周期性活动对物种多样性的影响幅度要小于栖息地扩充过程中的。在一个完整的周期内,并没有物种的灭绝,只是物种的多度和强弱关系变化很大。当人类周期性活动仅持续1/4个周期时,最强的几个物种将灭绝,而其它物种做准周期振荡,但振幅相对较小。     

The competitive dynamics of metapopulations subject to the Allee-like effect

It is well recognized that individuals of many species can benefit from the presence of conspecifics, a concept broadly referred to as the Allee effect. At the metapopulation level, there is an analogous but essentially different phenomenon called the Allee-like effect that leads to metapopulation extinction thresholds at low habitat occupancy. But so far not adequate attention has been paid to this phenomenon. In this paper, the Allee-like effect is introduced into a metapopulation model of one species and also that of a three-state two-species competitive system. Phase plane analysis is used to investigate the dynamics of these models. We demonstrate that the Allee-like effect alone could lead to multiple stable states in three-state two-species competitive systems at the metapopulation level, and the number of stable states decrease as the Allee-like effect becomes more severe. Severe Allee-like effects may make coexistence impossible and may even lead to the extinction of both species even if their initial habitat occupancies are high and suitable habitats are enough. It is especially noticeable that depending on their initial conditions one species may exclude the other one that subjects to a weaker Allee-like effect than the former, while the second species always excludes the first one when both species are assumed to be in the absence of the Allee-like effect. We also investigate the habitat destructive effect on the Allee-like system mentioned above. Research indicates that the existence of the Allee-like effect makes a metapopulation more susceptible to habitat destruction. All in all, the Allee-like effect is probably a destabilizing factor that, together with habitat destruction, would affect the continuous existence of species. These conclusions may have important implications for conservation and metacommunity organization.