华北农业干旱监测与冬小麦估产研究

评估了基于植被光学厚度(VOD)和日光诱导叶绿素荧光(SIF)等植被广义光学特性构建的标准化植被指数(Z_VI)监测农业干旱的适用性;并采用VOD、SIF两种指数和土壤水分等环境变量的不同组合建立冬小麦估产的岭回归模型,以探究其对冬小麦产量的预报能力。结果表明：相较于Z_VOD,旬尺度Z_SIF对华北地区的农业干旱具有更好的监测能力,对重旱的正确检测率达到77%。Z_SIF能够有效反映干旱发生、发展直至减轻的演变过程,其低值区与站点记录的干旱空间分布相吻合。在华北地区南部,生长季C波段和Ku波段的VOD对冬小麦单产的预报能力优于SIF;利用VOD、SIF两种指数和环境变量的全变量模型取得了最好的估产精度,影响冬小麦产量估算精度的关键预测变量为生长高峰期的SIF。研究可为大范围农业干旱监测和粮食安全提供技术支持。     

黄淮海地区干旱变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

为了探究气候变化背景下黄淮海地区的干旱特征,基于黄淮海平原34个气象站点的1961—2012年气象数据,使用相对湿润指数探讨分析了近50年黄淮海地区冬小麦生长季及4个季节干旱的时空变化及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)在整个分析期内(1961—2011)冬小麦生长季干旱减轻,但是在近20年干旱有了加重的趋势,且干旱加重的趋势是一种突变现象。(2)黄淮海地区1961年以来,春季、冬季以及冬小麦生长季内均表现为不同程度的干旱,干旱频率都达到90%以上,其中春、冬两季最为干旱,3个时段整个黄淮海中北部地区都为高频干旱区域,且4个季节及冬小麦生长季干旱程度与干旱频率的区域分布均表现为由南向北递增的趋势。(3)黄淮海地区的干旱特征对降水、太阳辐射和相对湿度这3个气候要素的变化最为敏感。     

基于同化数据的标准化土壤湿度指数监测农业干旱的适宜性研究

农业干旱是导致作物减产的主要灾害之一,及时、准确地监测农业干旱状况有助于制定区域减灾策略,降低灾害损失。标准化土壤湿度指数(SSMI)是基于历史土壤湿度时间序列构建的一种农业干旱指数,目前分析该指数监测农业干旱的适宜性研究十分缺乏。本文以黄淮海平原为研究区,利用数据同化的根区土壤湿度数据构建SSMI,并通过与标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)、农业干旱灾害记录数据的对比以及与冬小麦产量的关系分析,综合评价SSMI监测农业干旱的适宜性。结果表明,SSMI与SPEI具有良好的一致性,二者之间具有极显著相关关系(P0.001);利用SSMI识别的农业干旱与农气站点干旱灾害记录是基本一致的,SSMI能够有效反映干旱发生、发展直至减轻的演变过程;冬小麦生长季SSMI与减产率显著相关,利用SSMI识别的农业干旱发生区域与基于统计数据计算的减产区域基本相符,SSMI能够对农业干旱引起的冬小麦减产起到一定的指示作用。综上所述,基于同化数据构建的SSMI能够反映黄淮海平原的农业干旱状况,利用SSMI监测区域农业干旱状况是适宜的。研究可为基于土壤湿度的农业干旱监测业务化运行提供依据,为黄淮海平原的抗旱减灾提供科学参考。     

基于实际蒸散构建的干旱指数在黄淮海地区的适用性

基于NOAH陆面模式模拟的实际蒸散产品,分析了2002—2010年黄淮海地区实际蒸散的时空分布特征.同时,结合MOD17潜在蒸散数据和MOD13 NDVI构建了2002—2010年的农业干旱指数——干旱敏感性指数(DSI),并以2002年1—12月为例,利用帕默尔干旱指数(PDSI)、冬小麦减产率以及实际旱情资料,分析了DSI在该地区干旱监测的适用性.结果表明: 黄淮海地区年均实际蒸散从西北向东南递增,最高值出现在研究区域东南部(800~900 mm),最低值出现在西北部(<300 mm);DSI、PDSI两种干旱指数的年际变化呈正相关(R²=0.61)和变化趋势的一致性,均在2002年达到最低(-0.61和-1.33),2003年最高(0.81和0.92),DSI与冬小麦减产率的相关性(R²=0.43)明显优于PDSI(R²=0.06),且表征干旱的空间分辨率较高,对区域农业干旱程度的判断和旱情的指示比较可靠.     

气候变化背景下中国南方地区季节性干旱特征与适应Ⅱ.基于作物水分亏缺指数的越冬粮油作物干旱时空特征

近年来中国南方地区的季节性干旱频繁发生,对当地越冬作物造成严重影响.本文基于中国南方地区268个气象站点1959-2009年的地面气象观测资料,以作物水分亏缺指数为指标,分析了中国南方地区越冬作物冬小麦和油菜的季节性干旱时空特征.结果表明:对于中国南方地区而言,西南、淮北和华南部分地区的越冬作物在生育阶段内易发生干旱.在长江中下游地区,冬小麦在生育中后期的干旱发生范围和强度增加,且随着生育期后移,其干旱越加严重;油菜在冬前生育阶段和生育后期的干旱发生范围和强度呈增加趋势.在西南地区,冬小麦和油菜在冬前生育期的干旱发生范围和强度均显著增加.20世纪90年代初以来,研究区域冬小麦和油菜在生育阶段中后期发生干旱的范围和强度都增加.     

不同生育时期干旱对冬小麦氮素吸收与利用的影响

以抗旱性强的‘石家庄8号’和抗旱性弱的‘偃麦20’冬小麦(Triticum aestivum)为材料, 在田间遮雨棚条件下, 研究返青-拔节期、拔节-开花期和灌浆后期3个生育期不同干旱程度对冬小麦产量、氮素吸收、分配和利用的影响。结果表明, 在干旱条件下, 抗旱性强的‘石家庄8号’产量高于抗旱性弱的‘偃麦20’, 并且其3个生育时期轻度干旱均可提高产量。拔节-开花期干旱对两个冬小麦品种氮素的吸收和运转影响均最大, 其次为返青-拔节期, 而灌浆后期影响较小。不同生育期中度和重度干旱均降低了花前贮藏氮素向籽粒中的转移, 并且氮肥利用效率和生产率也较低, 而在返青-拔节和灌浆后期轻度干旱有利于营养器官的氮素向籽粒中转移, 提高了氮肥利用效率和生产率。在干旱条件下, 抗旱性强的‘石家庄8号’籽粒氮素积累对花前贮藏氮素再运转的依赖程度高, 而‘偃麦20’对花后氮素的积累和转移依赖较高。综合产量和氮素的转移特点, 在生产实践中, 返青-拔节期和灌浆后期要注意对小麦进行适度的干旱处理, 在拔节-开花期要保证冬小麦的充分灌溉, 从而有利于氮素的积累和分配。     

华北地区冬小麦灌溉制度及其环境效应研究进展

充分利用有限的灌溉水资源确保冬小麦安全生产是华北地区冬小麦稳产高产面临的严峻挑战,解决这一问题的关键在于如何基于环境效应科学地进行灌溉管理。综述了国内外有关冬小麦的灌溉管理制度,即充分灌溉与非充分灌溉管理制度以及冬小麦关键灌溉期的环境效应,在此基础上提出了华北地区冬小麦科学灌溉拟重点关注的研究任务:(1)冬小麦生长发育需水时间与需水量的控制机制研究;(2)冬小麦干旱发生发展过程与致灾临界气象条件研究;(3)气候变化背景下极端干旱事件的冬小麦脆弱性诊断与适应性管理,以为华北地区冬小麦安全生产措施制定提供依据。     

华北平原冬小麦干旱灾损风险区划

干旱是华北平原最严重的农业气象灾害之一,是冬小麦产量稳定上升的重要限制因素。本文从冬小麦产量的实际灾损角度,对减产率、发生概率及产量的变异系数等因子进行了分析,构建了华北平原冬小麦干旱产量灾损风险评估模型,并对华北平原冬小麦进行了实际灾损风险区划。结果表明,风险高值区约占该地区19.8%,主要分布于鲁西、鲁西北-冀东北,鲁西南-豫东地区;中值区约占34%,主要分布在冀中南、豫北、豫中和豫西以及山东中部丘陵地区;风险低值区占46.2%,主要集中于鲁中部、南部和豫中南、西南的广大地区。     

Responses of tree-ring growth and crop yield to drought indices in the Shanxi province,North China

In this paper, we analyze the relationships among the tree-ring chronology, meteorological drought (precipitation), agricultural drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI), hydrological drought (runoff), and agricultural data in the Shanxi province of North China. Correlation analyses indicate that the tree-ring chronology is significantly correlated with all of the drought indices during the main growing season from March to July. Sign test analyses further indicate that the tree-ring chronology shows variation similar to that of the drought indices in both high and low frequencies. Comparisons of the years with narrow tree rings to the severe droughts reflected in all three indices from 1957 to 2008 reveal that the radial growth of the trees in the study region can accurately record the severe drought for which all three indices were in agreement (1972, 1999, 2000, and 2001). Comparisons with the dryness/wetness index indicate that tree-ring growth can properly record the severe droughts in the history. Correlation analyses among agricultural data, tree-ring chronology, and drought indices indicate that the per-unit yield of summer crops is relatively well correlated with the agricultural drought, as indicated by the PDSI. The PDSI is the climatic factor that significantly influences both tree growth and per-unit yield of summer crops in the study region. These results indicate that the PDSI and tree-ring chronology have the potential to be used to monitor and predict the yield of summer crops. Tree-ring chronology is an important tool for drought research and for wider applications in agricultural and hydrological research.     

冬小麦单产的光谱数据估测模型研究

 本文在分析冬小麦群体经济产量与叶面积系数关系的基础上,以地面实测冬小麦反射光谱数据为依据,提出了一种新的动态VI-产量模型,即LAD-产量模型。该模型具有冬小麦生育后期(抽穗一灌浆末期)光合面积和光合时间等信息,其冬小麦单位面积产量(简称单产)估测精度为98%。另外,本文根据常用的某一特定生育期VI-产量模型,用冬小麦各生育期的VI值分别估测小麦单产,确定山东省禹城市冬小麦的灌浆中期为最佳估产时间。此时期．小麦单产估测精度为96%。     

A Study on the Model for Estimation Winter Wheat Yield Using Spectral Data of Wheat Field

A new dynamic vegetation index (VI)-yield model, that is, the leaf area duration (LAD)-yield model was structured for estimating winter wheat yield according to the measured reflection spectral data on the wheat field, and the relationship between wheat yield and LAI. The model had the information on the photosynthetic area and time during the later period of wheat growth, i. e., the period from the heading stage to the end of filling stage. The accuracy of the estimated wheat yield arrived up to 98% .In addition, the winter wheat yield was also estimated by a VI-yield model in a given wheat growing stage, and the VI in several main wheat growing stages were used for this purpose. The results suggested that the best season for estimating wheat yield using the VI-yield model was in the middle of wheat filling stage for the case study in Yucheng, Shandong province. The accuracy of the estimation could arrive at 96%.     

基于多源遥感数据的农业干旱监测模型构建及应用

干旱监测问题是干旱灾害模拟与预警及旱灾防灾减灾的关键。基于2001-2013年淮河流域40个气象站资料、28个土壤墒情站点和中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）多源遥感数据,采用SEN趋势法和标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）等方法,综合了大气-植被-土壤相互作用等多元成因,构建了适用于淮河流域多源综合遥感干旱监测模型,探讨淮河流域干旱时空规律。研究表明：（1）基于多源数据构建综合干旱监测模型,利用土壤墒情和典型年份干旱监测对综合干旱监测模型适用性进行评价,通过了P < 0.01的显著性检验,构建的模型可综合反映出农业和气象干旱多源信息;（2）淮河流域干旱面积和干旱频率大都集中在4-5月和7-9月,9月份受旱面积最大。河南省是淮河流域受旱频率最高,其干旱面积占淮河流域多年平均干旱面积比重最大（38%）,其次是安徽（22%）,旱地受旱面积比重大于水田受旱面积比重;（3）淮河流域2、3和5月干旱有显著减弱趋势;而1、4和6月则有增强趋势。淮河流域小麦灌浆-成熟时期（4-6月）缺水对小麦粮食产量影响显著,综合淮河流域干旱趋势变化,需强化淮河流域4月份小麦的干旱监测与旱灾预警。     

花后干旱和渍水对不同品质类型小麦籽粒品质形成的影响

 防雨池栽条件下研究了花后干旱和渍水胁迫对两个不同品质类型小麦（Triticum aestivum）品种籽粒产量和品质形成的影响。结果表明,花后渍水和干旱处理明显降低了小麦籽粒产量和蛋白质产量。在整个灌浆期内干旱处理明显提高了籽粒蛋白质和醇溶蛋白含量,而渍水处理降低了籽粒蛋白质及其组分的积累量。籽粒总淀粉和直链淀粉含量以渍水处理最高,而支链淀粉以对照最高。干旱处理提高了籽粒干、湿面筋含量、沉降值和降落值,而渍水处理降低了上述品质指标。试验表明干旱和渍水胁迫对小麦籽粒蛋白质与淀粉的含量和组分及面粉品质等均有不同程度的影响,从而改变了不同品质类型小麦的籽粒品质。     

冬灌田影响水稻生长期甲烷排放量的因素分析

冬灌田是CH4排放量最大的一类稻田。对冬灌田6年（1995-2000年）的测定结果表明,越冬期排干,并种植旱作（小麦或油菜）减少后续水稻生长期CH4排放量,水稻垄作并降低冬季垄沟水位也可有效地减少水稻生长期的CH4排放量。对后3年（1998-2000年）不同处理的测定结果分析表明,冬季土壤水分含量与水稻生长期CH4排放量呈显著正相关,可以预测水稻生长期平均CH4排放量56%的年际和处理变化。如果同时考虑水稻生长期的土壤温度,则可预测78%的变化,控制渗漏池地下水位,调节冬季土壤水分,进一步证明冬季土壤水分对后续水稻生长期CH4排放量的影响。由于水稻生长期土壤温度的冬季土壤水分含量与气候因素密切相关,据此,可以认为,冬季降水和水稻生长期温度变化是导致稻田CH4排放量年际变化的主要因素。     

气候变化背景下中国南方地区季节性干旱特征与适应Ⅵ.防旱避灾种植模式优化布局

南方地区是我国重要的农业种植区,季节性干旱严重影响该地区的农业生产.本文基于南方地区不同干旱分区中选取的13个典型地区1981-2007年气象资料和作物生育期、产量等资料,依据各地逐年降水量将其分为干旱年、正常年和丰水年3种不同降水年型,利用作物水分临界期需水量与降水量的耦合度、气象产量、单位面积产值以及全生育期的水分利用效率和降水量5个指标,对典型地区种植模式的综合效益进行评价,得到南方不同区域不同降水年型下的优化种植模式.结果表明: 半干旱区在干旱年型下,宜采取2种抗旱种植模式：马铃-玉米-甘薯和冬小麦-中稻-甘薯.半湿润区在干旱年型下,种植模式以冬小麦-中稻-甘薯最优,油菜-中稻-甘薯次之.在温润区(即典型的季节性干旱区),江南地区在3种年型下均以马铃薯-双季稻最优;西南地区宜搭配抗旱作物进行三熟制种植,如冬小麦-中稻-甘薯、冬小麦-玉米-甘薯、马铃薯-双季稻等.从最大程度利用水热资源角度考虑,三熟种植模式最优,以水旱轮作为主,丰水年型宜搭配水稻.     

推迟拔节水灌溉对宽幅精播麦田冠层温度与叶片水分利用效率的影响

为了探讨冬小麦高效节水灌溉模式,于2012—2013年在山东农业大学试验站采用两种种植模式(宽幅精播种植和常规种植),每种种植模式设3种灌溉处理(全生育期不灌溉、拔节期灌溉60 mm和拔节后10 d灌溉60 mm),研究了推迟拔节水灌溉对宽幅精播麦田冠层温度、光合速率、蒸腾速率、叶片水分利用效率(WUEL)和籽粒产量等的影响。结果表明,推迟拔节水灌溉显著提高了宽幅精播麦田生育后期的冠层温度、旗叶光合速率和蒸腾速率,且在冬小麦生长后期推迟拔节水灌溉显著提高了宽幅精播麦田的WUEL,有利于实现宽幅精播麦田的节水高产;产量构成因素中,推迟拔节水灌溉对两种种植模式的千粒重均没有显著影响,但推迟拔节水灌溉显著提高了宽幅精播麦田的穗粒数和籽粒产量。统筹考虑冬小麦的WUEL和籽粒产量,推迟拔节水灌溉对宽幅精播麦田实现节水高产具有一定的现实意义。     

Long-Term Monitoring of Rainfed Wheat Yield and Soil Water at the Loess Plateau Reveals Low Water Use Efficiency

Increasing crop yield and water use efficiency (WUE) in dryland farming requires a quantitative understanding of relationships between crop yield and the water balance over many years. Here, we report on a long-term dryland monitoring site at the Loess Plateau, Shanxi, China, where winter wheat was grown for 30 consecutive years and soil water content (0–200 cm) was measured every 10 days. The monitoring data were used to calibrate the AquaCrop model and then to analyse the components of the water balance. There was a strong positive relationship between total available water and mean cereal yield. However, only one-third of the available water was actually used by the winter wheat for crop transpiration. The remaining two-thirds were lost by soil evaporation, of which 40 and 60% was lost during the growing and fallow seasons, respectively. Wheat yields ranged from 0.6 to 3.9 ton/ha and WUE from 0.3 to 0.9 kg/m³. Results of model experiments suggest that minimizing soil evaporation via straw mulch or plastic film covers could potentially double wheat yields and WUE. We conclude that the relatively low wheat yields and low WUE were mainly related to (i) limited rainfall, (ii) low soil water storage during fallow season due to large soil evaporation, and (iii) poor synchronisation of the wheat growing season to the rain season. The model experiments suggest significant potential for increased yields and WUE.     

Fertilization regulates the response of wheat yield to interannual temperature variation in North China

Aims Understanding the effect of long-term fertilization on the sensitivity of grain yield to temperature changes is critical for accurately assessing the impact of global warming on crop production. In this study, we aim to assess the impacts of temperature changes on grain yields of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under different fertilization treatments in a long-term manipulative experiment in North China.Methods We measured grain yields of winter wheat under four fertilization treatments at the Yucheng Comprehensive Experimental Station each year from 1993 to 2012. We also measured air temperature at 0200, 0800, 1400 and 2000h each day since 1 January 1980. We then used the first-difference method and simple linear regression models to examine the relationship of crop yield changes to mean air temperature, mean daytime and nighttime air temperature in crop growing seasons.Important findings We found that increases in mean daily temperature, mean daytime temperature and mean nighttime temperature each had a positive impact on the grain yield of winter wheat. Grain yield increased by 16.7–85.6% for winter wheat in response to a 1°C increase in growing season mean daily temperature. Winter wheat yield was more sensitive to variations of nighttime temperature than to that of daytime temperature. The observed temperature impacts also varied across different fertilization treatments. Balanced fertilization significantly enhanced grain yields for winter wheat under a warming climate. Wheat plots treated with nitrogen and phosphorous balanced fertilization (NPK- and NP-treated plots) were more responsive to temperature changes than those without. This report provides direct evidence of how temperature change impacts grain yields under different fertilization treatments, which is useful for crop management in a changing global climate.     

Contribution of Pre-Anthesis Assimilates and Current Photosynthesis to Grain Yield,and their Relationships to Drought Resistance in Wheat Cultivars Grown Under Different Soil Moisture

We investigated the relative importance of pre-anthesis assimilates stored in plant parts, mainly in the stem, and post-anthesis photosynthesis to drought resistance in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars Hongwangmai (drought resistant) and Haruhikari (drought sensitive) subjected to two soil moisture regimes: irrigated and non-irrigated. In the irrigated treatment, soil moisture was maintained near field capacity throughout the growing season, while in the non-irrigated treatment water was withheld from 81 d after sowing until maturity. Drought stress reduced grain yield of Hongwangmai and Haruhikari by 41 and 60 %, respectively. Remobilization of pre-anthesis assimilates to the grain (remobilization) was reduced by drought in Hongwangmai but increased in Haruhikari. The contribution of pre-anthesis assimilates to the grain decreased under non-irrigated treatment in Hongwangmai. However, under water stress, Hongwangmai maintained a higher net photosynthetic rate in the flag leaf than Haruhikari. These results indicated that maintenance of post-anthesis photosynthetic rate was related to drought resistance in Hongwangmai rather than to remobilization under drought stress.     

全球气候变化对我国西北地区农业的影响

在比较系统总结全球气候变化对我国西北地区农业影响的主要研究成果的基础上,揭示了我国西北地区现代气候变化对全球气候变暖响应的基本特征,阐述了现代气候变化对土壤水分、地表蒸发和作物气候生产力的影响规律;并且比较全面地概括了西北地区冬、春小麦、玉米、马铃薯、冬油菜、棉花、胡麻、牧草、葡萄等9种主要农作物的生长发育、病虫害、种植面积、气候产量以及畜牧业活动等对气候变化的响应特征,发现气候变化对农业生产过程的影响利弊皆存,而且不同农作物对气候变化的响应特征差异较大.研究对西北地区农业生产具有比较重要的科学指导意见.