Do we need nasal vaccines against COVID 19 to suppress the transmission of infections?

Covid-19 vaccines have within the first year prevented about 14 million deaths but did not induce a strong mucosal immune response. Data from US, UK, Singapore and Israel showed a variable and mostly modest effects of vaccination on virus excretion during breakthrough infections. Contact studies showed decreased transmission of infection from vaccinated index cases, but the effect varied according to dominant virus type, with study type and the nature of the contact group and diminished with time after vaccination. Some researchers suspect that it is unlikely to stop the pandemic with injected vaccines alone. Promising animal experiments were conducted with mucosal vaccines. Mice nasally immunized with a chimpanzee adenovirus vector mounted a mucosal immune response, were protected against viral challenge after a single vaccine dose and suppressed nasal replication of the challenge virus. Phage T4 expressing SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid induced a sterilizing lung immunity in nasally vaccinated mice. Also hamsters intranasally immunized with the prefusion-stabilized spike protein showed no infectious virus in nasal turbinates upon challenge. Other studies showed that intranasal vaccination with an adenovirus vaccine reduced but did not eliminated viral transmission from infected to naïve hamsters. Intranasal vaccination of rhesus macaques with adenovirus vaccines also substantially reduced or even suppressed viral replication in the upper and lower respiratory tract. Human data on mucosal SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are so far limited to safety and immunogenicity studies. Aerosolized adenovirus vaccines given either as a booster or as primary immunization were safe and induced similar or superior immune response than injected vaccines while an aerosolized influenza vectored vaccine induced only a weak humoral and cellular immune response. Overall 100 mucosal SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are in development and 20 are in clinical trials. First human trials demonstrate that this will not be an easy task.     

Influence of BCG vaccine strain on the immune response and protection against tuberculosis

The Bacille Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine has been used for more than 80 years to protect against tuberculosis. Worldwide, over 90% of children are immunized with BCG, making it the most commonly administered vaccine, with more than 120 million doses used each year. Although new tuberculosis vaccines are under investigation, BCG will remain the cornerstone of the strategy to fight the worsening tuberculosis pandemic for the foreseeable future. The recent delineation of genetic differences between BCG vaccine strains has renewed interest in the influence of the vaccine strain on the protective efficacy against tuberculosis. This review critically examines the data from animal and human studies comparing BCG vaccine strains. Although there is good evidence to support the notion that the induced immune response and protection afforded against tuberculosis differs between BCG vaccine strains, currently, there are insufficient data to favour or recommend one particular strain. Identifying BCG strains with superior protection would have a dramatic effect on tuberculosis control at a population level: a small increment in protection provided by BCG immunization will prevent large numbers of cases of severe tuberculosis and deaths, particularly in children.     

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination reduces the severity and progression of tuberculosis in badgers

Control of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in cattle has proven particularly challenging where reservoirs of infection exist in wildlife populations. In Britain and Ireland, control is hampered by a reservoir of infection in Eurasian badgers (Meles meles). Badger culling has positive and negative effects on bovine TB in cattle and is difficult, costly and controversial. Here we show that Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination of captive badgers reduced the progression, severity and excretion of Mycobacterium bovis infection after experimental challenge. In a clinical field study, BCG vaccination of free-living badgers reduced the incidence of positive serological test results by 73.8 per cent. In common with other species, BCG did not appear to prevent infection of badgers subjected to experimental challenge, but did significantly reduce the overall disease burden. BCG vaccination of badgers could comprise an important component of a comprehensive programme of measures to control bovine TB in cattle.     

Mouse models for the genetic study of tuberculosis susceptibility.

Tuberculosis, mainly caused by the pathogenic bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis, remains an inestimable public health problem, despite the established use of the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine, multidrug therapy and the existence of global tuberculosis control programmes. Statistics show that nearly 2 billion people (approximately one-third of the world's population) are infected with M. tuberculosis. For unknown reasons, only about 10 per cent of those infected by M. tuberculosis will develop tuberculosis, resulting in 9 million new cases yearly and 2 million deaths. A better understanding of the host--mycobacterial--environmental interplay is central to developing better antituberculosis vaccines and treatments. This review will discuss how a clearer idea of this interplay is emerging with new genomic strategies in mouse models.     

The current burden of Japanese encephalitis and the estimated impacts of vaccination: Combining estimates of the spatial distribution and transmission intensity of a zoonotic pathogen

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a major cause of neurological disability in Asia and causes thousands of severe encephalitis cases and deaths each year. Although Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a WHO reportable disease, cases and deaths are significantly underreported and the true burden of the disease is not well understood in most endemic countries. Here, we first conducted a spatial analysis of the risk factors associated with JE to identify the areas suitable for sustained JEV transmission and the size of the population living in at-risk areas. We then estimated the force of infection (FOI) for JE-endemic countries from age-specific incidence data. Estimates of the susceptible population size and the current FOI were then used to estimate the JE burden from 2010 to 2019, as well as the impact of vaccination. Overall, 1,543.1 million (range: 1,292.6-2,019.9 million) people were estimated to live in areas suitable for endemic JEV transmission, which represents only 37.7% (range: 31.6-53.5%) of the over four billion people living in countries with endemic JEV transmission. Based on the baseline number of people at risk of infection, there were an estimated 56,847 (95% CI: 18,003-184,525) JE cases and 20,642 (95% CI: 2,252-77,204) deaths in 2019. Estimated incidence declined from 81,258 (95% CI: 25,437-273,640) cases and 29,520 (95% CI: 3,334-112,498) deaths in 2010, largely due to increases in vaccination coverage which have prevented an estimated 314,793 (95% CI: 94,566-1,049,645) cases and 114,946 (95% CI: 11,421-431,224) deaths over the past decade. India had the largest estimated JE burden in 2019, followed by Bangladesh and China. From 2010-2019, we estimate that vaccination had the largest absolute impact in China, with 204,734 (95% CI: 74,419-664,871) cases and 74,893 (95% CI: 8,989-286,239) deaths prevented, while Taiwan (91.2%) and Malaysia (80.1%) had the largest percent reductions in JE burden due to vaccination. Our estimates of the size of at-risk populations and current JE incidence highlight countries where increasing vaccination coverage could have the largest impact on reducing their JE burden.     

Effectiveness of Routine BCG Vaccination on Buruli Ulcer Disease: A Case-Control Study in the Democratic Republic of Congo,Ghana and Togo

Background

The only available vaccine that could be potentially beneficial against mycobacterial diseases contains live attenuated bovine tuberculosis bacillus (Mycobacterium bovis) also called Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG). Even though the BCG vaccine is still widely used, results on its effectiveness in preventing mycobacterial diseases are partially contradictory, especially regarding Buruli Ulcer Disease (BUD). The aim of this case-control study is to evaluate the possible protective effect of BCG vaccination on BUD.

Methodology

The present study was performed in three different countries and sites where BUD is endemic: in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, and Togo from 2010 through 2013. The large study population was comprised of 401 cases with laboratory confirmed BUD and 826 controls, mostly family members or neighbors.

Principal Findings

After stratification by the three countries, two sexes and four age groups, no significant correlation was found between the presence of BCG scar and BUD status of individuals. Multivariate analysis has shown that the independent variables country (p = 0.31), sex (p = 0.24), age (p = 0.96), and presence of a BCG scar (p = 0.07) did not significantly influence the development of BUD category I or category II/III. Furthermore, the status of BCG vaccination was also not significantly related to duration of BUD or time to healing of lesions.

Conclusions

In our study, we did not observe significant evidence of a protective effect of routine BCG vaccination on the risk of developing either BUD or severe forms of BUD. Since accurate data on BCG strains used in these three countries were not available, no final conclusion can be drawn on the effectiveness of BCG strain in protecting against BUD. As has been suggested for tuberculosis and leprosy, well-designed prospective studies on different existing BCG vaccine strains are needed also for BUD.     

Cost-effectiveness of the national dog rabies prevention and control program in Mexico, 1990–2015

BackgroundRabies is a viral zoonosis that imposes a substantial disease and economic burden in many developing countries. Dogs are the primary source of rabies transmission; eliminating dog rabies reduces the risk of exposure in humans significantly. Through mass annual dog rabies vaccination campaigns, the national program of rabies control in Mexico progressively reduced rabies cases in dogs and humans since 1990. In 2019, the World Health Organization validated Mexico for eliminating rabies as a public health problem. Using a governmental perspective, we retrospectively assessed the economic costs, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of the national program of rabies control in Mexico, 1990–2015.MethodologyCombining various data sources, including administrative records, national statistics, and scientific literature, we retrospectively compared the current scenario of annual dog vaccination campaigns and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) with a counterfactual scenario without an annual dog vaccination campaign but including PEP. The counterfactual scenario was estimated using a mathematical model of dog rabies transmission (RabiesEcon). We performed a thorough sensitivity analysis of the main results.Principal findingsResults suggest that in 1990 through 2015, the national dog rabies vaccination program in Mexico prevented about 13,000 human rabies deaths, at an incremental cost (MXN 2015) of $4,700 million (USD 300 million). We estimated an average cost of $360,000 (USD 23,000) per human rabies death averted, $6,500 (USD 410) per additional year-of-life, and $3,000 (USD 190) per dog rabies death averted. Results were robust to several counterfactual scenarios, including high and low rabies transmission scenarios and various assumptions about potential costs without mass dog rabies vaccination campaigns.ConclusionsAnnual dog rabies vaccination campaigns have eliminated the transmission of dog-to-dog rabies and dog-mediated human rabies deaths in Mexico. According to World Health Organization standards, our results show that the national program of rabies control in Mexico has been highly cost-effective.     

Simultaneous Inhibition of T Helper 2 and T Regulatory Cell Differentiation by Small Molecules Enhances Bacillus Calmette-Guerin Vaccine Efficacy against Tuberculosis

Tuberculosis affects nine million individuals and kills almost two million people every year. The only vaccine available, Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG), has been used since its inception in 1921. Although BCG induces host-protective T helper 1 (Th1) cell immune responses, which play a central role in host protection, its efficacy is unsatisfactory, suggesting that additional methods to enhance protective immune responses are needed. Recently we have shown that simultaneous inhibition of Th2 cells and Tregs by using the pharmacological inhibitors suplatast tosylate and D4476, respectively, dramatically enhances Mycobacterium tuberculosis clearance and induces superior Th1 responses. Here we show that treatment with these two drugs during BCG vaccination dramatically improves vaccine efficacy. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these drugs induce a shift in the development of T cell memory, favoring central memory T (Tcm) cell responses over effector memory T (Tem) cell responses. Collectively, our findings provide evidence that simultaneous inhibition of Th2 cells and Tregs during BCG vaccination promotes vaccine efficacy.     

Yellow Fever Outbreaks in Unvaccinated Populations,Brazil, 2008–2009

Due to the risk of severe vaccine-associated adverse events, yellow fever vaccination in Brazil is only recommended in areas considered at risk for disease. From September 2008 through June 2009, two outbreaks of yellow fever in previously unvaccinated populations resulted in 21 confirmed cases with 9 deaths (case-fatality, 43%) in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul and 28 cases with 11 deaths (39%) in Sao Paulo state. Epizootic deaths of non-human primates were reported before and during the outbreak. Over 5.5 million doses of yellow fever vaccine were administered in the two most affected states. Vaccine-associated adverse events were associated with six deaths due to acute viscerotropic disease (0.8 deaths per million doses administered) and 45 cases of acute neurotropic disease (5.6 per million doses administered). Yellow fever vaccine recommendations were revised to include areas in Brazil previously not considered at risk for yellow fever.     

Increase in congenital rubella occurrence after immunisation in Greece: retrospective survey and systematic review

ObjectiveTo describe the events leading to the epidemic of congenital rubella syndrome in Greece in 1993 after a major rubella epidemic.DesignRetrospective survey and systematic review.SettingGreece (population 10 million), 1950-95.SubjectsChildren, adolescents, and women of childbearing age.ResultsAround 1975 in Greece the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine started being given to boys and girls aged 1 year without policies to attain high vaccination coverage and to protect adolescents and young women. During the 1980s, vaccination coverage for rubella remained consistently below 50%, and the proportion of pregnant women susceptible to rubella gradually increased. In 1993 the incidence of rubella in young adults was higher than in any previous epidemic year. The epidemic of congenital rubella that followed, with 25 serologically confirmed cases (24.6 per 100 000 live births), was probably the largest such epidemic in Greece after 1950.ConclusionsWith low vaccination coverage, the immunisation of boys and girls aged 1 year against rubella carries the theoretical risk of increasing the occurrence of congenital rubella. This phenomenon, which has not been previously reported, occurred in Greece.     

COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province,Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness

BackgroundMultiple Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines appear to be safe and efficacious, but only high-income countries have the resources to procure sufficient vaccine doses for most of their eligible populations. The World Health Organization has published guidelines for vaccine prioritisation, but most vaccine impact projections have focused on high-income countries, and few incorporate economic considerations. To address this evidence gap, we projected the health and economic impact of different vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, Pakistan (population: 48 million).Methods and findingsWe fitted a compartmental transmission model to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Sindh from 30 April to 15 September 2020. We then projected cases, deaths, and hospitalisation outcomes over 10 years under different vaccine scenarios. Finally, we combined these projections with a detailed economic model to estimate incremental costs (from healthcare and partial societal perspectives), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for each scenario.We project that 1 year of vaccine distribution, at delivery rates consistent with COVAX projections, using an infection-blocking vaccine at $3/dose with 70% efficacy and 2.5-year duration of protection is likely to avert around 0.9 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.9, 1.0) million cases, 10.1 (95% CrI: 10.1, 10.3) thousand deaths, and 70.1 (95% CrI: 69.9, 70.6) thousand DALYs, with an ICER of $27.9 per DALY averted from the health system perspective. Under a broad range of alternative scenarios, we find that initially prioritising the older (65+) population generally prevents more deaths. However, unprioritised distribution has almost the same cost-effectiveness when considering all outcomes, and both prioritised and unprioritised programmes can be cost-effective for low per-dose costs. High vaccine prices ($10/dose), however, may not be cost-effective, depending on the specifics of vaccine performance, distribution programme, and future pandemic trends.The principal drivers of the health outcomes are the fitted values for the overall transmission scaling parameter and disease natural history parameters from other studies, particularly age-specific probabilities of infection and symptomatic disease, as well as social contact rates. Other parameters are investigated in sensitivity analyses.This study is limited by model approximations, available data, and future uncertainty. Because the model is a single-population compartmental model, detailed impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as household isolation cannot be practically represented or evaluated in combination with vaccine programmes. Similarly, the model cannot consider prioritising groups like healthcare or other essential workers. The model is only fitted to the reported case and death data, which are incomplete and not disaggregated by, e.g., age. Finally, because the future impact and implementation cost of NPIs are uncertain, how these would interact with vaccination remains an open question.ConclusionsCOVID-19 vaccination can have a considerable health impact and is likely to be cost-effective if more optimistic vaccine scenarios apply. Preventing severe disease is an important contributor to this impact. However, the advantage of prioritising older, high-risk populations is smaller in generally younger populations. This reduction is especially true in populations with more past transmission, and if the vaccine is likely to further impede transmission rather than just disease. Those conditions are typical of many low- and middle-income countries.

In a modelling study, Carl A B Pearson and coauthors investigate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of various COVID-19 vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, Pakistan     

Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism Analysis of Epidemiologically Related Mycobacterium tuberculosis Isolates

Restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis of a large number of Japanese isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, containing isolates from small outbreaks of M. tuberculosis infection, and clinical isolates of M. bovis BCG, was carried out using a DNA probe derived from the insertion sequence IS986. Clinical isolates of M. tuberculosis had a high degree of RFLP. The occurrences of the IS element varied from 1 to 19, the majority of isolates having 8 to 15 copies. Very similar fingerprints, however, were seen among strains isolated in the Kanto district. In particular, 3 strains were of the same pattern with or without an additional band. Similarity of the banding patterns of strains islated in the same district was observed in other areas. Six groups of strains, each group arising from a suspected common source of infection, were analyzed. Of these, 5 showed identical fingerprints within each group, but one showed different fingerprints. RFLP patterns of three strains isolated from individuals with lymphadenitis developed about two months after BCG vaccination, and one strain isolated from a bladder cancer patient with BCG instillation therapy were identical to those of BCG-Tokyo which had been used for the vaccination and therapy. These results confirm that RFLP analysis using IS986 is a suitable tool for epidemiology of tuberculosis.     

Vaccine preventable viral diseases in developing countries

There are several viral infectious diseases with a high impact on developing countries which can be prevented by immunization with existing vaccines. The most important are poliomyelitis, measles, hepatitis B and yellow fever. Vaccines against poliomyelitis and measles used within the framework of the WHO/Expanded Programme on Immunization prevent about 1.4 million deaths from measles and 360,000 cases of paralytic polio per year in developing countries, but about 1.5 million measles' deaths and 200,000 cases of paralytic polio still occur. Hepatitis B infection and its sequelae are responsible for over 50 million infections and one million deaths annually. Highly effective hepatitis B vaccines are now available and the price of these vaccines for the developing world has fallen dramatically. Despite the availability of a safe and efficacious yellow fever vaccine since 1937, 5400 cases of this disease with 3200 deaths were reported in Africa and South America from 1986 to 1988. Because of the efficacy of existing vaccines and the lack of animal reservoirs or vectors, systematic vaccination programmes within the framework of the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) could theoretically eliminate and even eradicate poliomyelltis, measles and hepatitis B. Many different obstacles need to be overcome before these goals are realized.This paper was presented at the IUMS Symposium on New Developments in Diagnosis and Control of Infectious Diseases held in conjunction with the Eighth International Congress of Virology, Berlin, Germany, 24–31 August 1990.     

Cancer and Covid-19: Collectively catastrophic

The Covid-19 pandemic has spread rapidly across the globe, resulting in more than 3 million deaths worldwide. The symptoms of Covid-19 are usually mild and non-specific, however in some cases patients may develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and systemic inflammation. Individuals with inflammatory or immunocompromising illnesses, such as cancer, are more susceptible to develop ARDS and have higher rates of mortality. This is mediated through an initial hyperstimulated immune response which results in elevated levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines and a subsequent cytokine storm. This potentiates positive feedback loops which are unable to be balanced by anti-inflammatory mediators. Therefore, elevated levels of IL-1β, as a result of NLRP3 inflammasome activation, as well as IL-6 and TNF-α amongst many others, contribute to the progression of various cancer types. Furthermore, Covid-19 progression is associated with the depletion of CD8⁺ and CD4⁺ T cells, B cell and natural killer cell numbers. Collectively, a Covid-19-dependent pro-inflammatory profile and immune suppression promotes the optimal microenvironment for tumourigenesis, initiation and immune evasion of malignant cells, tumour progression and metastasis as well as cancer recurrence. There are, however, therapeutic windows of opportunity that may combat both Covid-19 and cancer to improve patient outcomes.     

Did Covid-19 hit harder in peripheral areas? The case of Italian municipalities

The first wave of Covid-19 pandemic had a geographically heterogeneous impact even within the most severely hit regions. Exploiting a triple-differences methodology, we find that in Italy Covid-19 hit relatively harder in peripheral areas: the excess mortality in peripheral areas was almost double that of central ones in March 2020 (1.2 additional deaths every 1000 inhabitants). We leverage a rich dataset on Italian municipalities to explore mechanisms behind this gradient. We first show that socio-demographic and economic features at municipal level are highly collinear, making it hard to identify single-variable causal relationships. Using Principal Components Analysis we model excess mortality and show that areas with higher excess mortality have lower income, lower education, larger households, lower trade and higher industrial employments, and older population. Our findings highlight a strong centre-periphery gradient in the harshness of Covid-19, which we believe is also highly relevant from a policy-making standpoint.     

Genetic tracing of HCoV-19 for the re-emerging outbreak of COVID-19 in Beijing,China

The ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)caused by a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2,also named as 2019-nCoV or HCoV-19)poses an unprecedented threat to public health(Zhu et al.,2020;Wang et al.,2020;Jiang et al.,2020).The novel HCoV-19 virus has rapidly spread into multiple countries across the world since it was first reported in December 2019.The World Health Organization(WHO)declared COVID-19 as a pandemic on 11th March 2020.As of 4th July,over 10 million confirmed COVID-19 cases have been reported in over 200 countries/regions with more than 0.5 million deaths,including 85,287 documented cases and 4,648 deaths in China(WHO,2020a).     

Toward novel vaccines against tuberculosis: current hopes and obstacles

Approximately 2 million people die of tuberculosis (TB) each year. The current vaccine, Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), albeit widely employed, does not protect against adult pulmonary disease, and new vaccines are urgently needed to reduce the incidence of TB worldwide. New insights into the cellular and molecular mechanisms that underlie the interactions between Mycobacterium tuberculosis and its host have been exploited to develop novel vaccine candidates that recently have entered clinical trials. This review provides a brief overview of different approaches toward a new vaccination strategy and summarizes major challenges for the next decade.     

Screening and Assessing 11 Mycobacterium tuberculosis Proteins as Potential Serodiagnostical Markers for Discriminating TB Patients from BCG Vaccinees

Purified protein derivative (PPD) skin tests often yield poor specificity, so that to develop new serological antigens for distinguishing between Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination is a priority, especially for developing countries like China. We predicted the antigenicity for selected open reading frames (ORFs) based on the genome sequences of M. tuberculosis H37Rv and M. bovis BCG, as well as their functions and differences of expression under different stim...     

Implications of armed conflict for maternal and child health: A regression analysis of data from 181 countries for 2000–2019

BackgroundArmed conflicts have major indirect health impacts in addition to the direct harms from violence. They create enduring political instability, destabilise health systems, and foster negative socioeconomic and environmental conditions—all of which constrain efforts to reduce maternal and child mortality. The detrimental impacts of conflict on global maternal and child health are not robustly quantified. This study assesses the association between conflict and maternal and child health globally.Methods and findingsData for 181 countries (2000–2019) from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and World Bank were analysed using panel regression models. Primary outcomes were maternal, under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality rates. Secondary outcomes were delivery by a skilled birth attendant and diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus (DPT) and measles vaccination coverage. Models were adjusted for 10 confounders, country and year fixed effects, and conflict lagged by 1 year. Further lagged associations up to 10 years post-conflict were tested. The number of excess deaths due to conflict was estimated. Out of 3,718 country–year observations, 522 (14.0%) had minor conflicts and 148 (4.0%) had wars. In adjusted models, conflicts classified as wars were associated with an increase in maternal mortality of 36.9 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births (95% CI 1.9–72.0; 0.3 million excess deaths [95% CI 0.2 million–0.4 million] over the study period), an increase in infant mortality of 2.8 per 1,000 live births (95% CI 0.1–5.5; 2.0 million excess deaths [95% CI 1.6 million–2.5 million]), a decrease in DPT vaccination coverage of 4.9% (95% CI 1.5%–8.3%), and a decrease in measles vaccination coverage of 7.3% (95% CI 2.7%–11.8%). The long-term impacts of war were demonstrated by associated increases in maternal mortality observed for up to 7 years, in under-5 mortality for 3–5 years, in infant mortality for up to 8 years, in DPT vaccination coverage for up to 3 years, and in measles vaccination coverage for up to 2 years. No evidence of association between armed conflict and neonatal mortality or delivery by a skilled birth attendant was found. Study limitations include the ecological study design, which may mask sub-national variation in conflict intensity, and the quality of the underlying data.ConclusionsOur analysis indicates that armed conflict is associated with substantial and persistent excess maternal and child deaths globally, and with reductions in key measures that indicate reduced availability of organised healthcare. These findings highlight the importance of protecting women and children from the indirect harms of conflict, including those relating to health system deterioration and worsening socioeconomic conditions.

Mohammed Jawad and co-workers report on a global analysis of maternal and child health outcomes in situations of armed conflict.