基于地统计学和GIS的苜蓿斑蚜种群空间结构分析和分布模拟

运用地理信息系统(GIS)和地统计学方法对宁夏南部固原市原州区不同时期苜蓿斑蚜(Therioaphis trifolii)种群的空间结构进行了分析,并采用普通克立格插值法模拟了苜蓿斑蚜种群空间分布.结果表明:不同时期苜蓿斑蚜种群存在空间相关性,其半变异函数曲线均为指数型,空间格局呈聚集分布,空间变异成分的变化范围为34.13%~48.77%,空间相关范围为8.751~12.049km,聚集程度和方向有从西南向东北方向聚集的趋势.空间分布模拟图能较好地从时间、空间两个角度直观地分析不同时期苜蓿斑蚜种群的动态变化,易于确定同一时期苜蓿斑蚜的发生位置和发生程度.     

桃园生草复合生态系统中桃蚜与草间小黑蛛种群的地统计学分析

利用地统计学原理和地理信息系统(GIS)分析了桃园生草模式下不同时期桃蚜Myzus persicae(Sulzer)种群和草间小黑蛛Erigonidium graminicola Sundevall种群的空间分布格局和空间相关性。结果表明,不同时期桃蚜和草间小黑蛛种群均存在较强的空间相关性,其理想的半变异函数曲线为高斯、圆型、指数或球型,其空间格局均呈聚集分布,变程范围分别为6.8630¹2.0903 m、6.863012.0903 m、6.8630¹2.6980 m,空间结构比例分别为0.011312.6980 m,空间结构比例分别为0.0113⁰.6546、0.06760.6546、0.0676⁰.6129,表明桃园生草模式下桃树草间小黑蛛对桃蚜在空间位置上具有追随关系,对其种群数量的控制有较大作用,草间小黑蛛是桃蚜的优势天敌。     

麦长管蚜及蚜茧蜂空间格局的地学统计学研究

应用地学统计学的原理和方法研究了不同时期麦长管蚜及蚜茧蜂种群的空间结构和空间相关性,结果表明,不同时期麦长管蚜种群的半变异函数曲线皆为球型,其空间格局为聚集型,变程在33－57cm之间;蚜茧蜂种群的拟合半变异函数曲线也表现为球型,呈聚集空间格局,空间变程在36－55cm之间,并与麦长管蚜种群在数量和空间上有较强的追随关系,说明蚜茧蜂种群是麦长管蚜种群的优势种天敌。     

烟蚜及其捕食性天敌草间小黑蛛种群空间结构分析

采用地统计学原理和方法,拟合了不同时期烟蚜种群及其捕食性天敌草间小黑蛛种群的空间结构模型,分析了其空间关系．结果表明,不同时期烟蚜种群的空间结构模型均为球型,空间格局呈聚集型分布,空间相关距离在2．0252～4．1495m之间,异质系数为10281．36～300216．30,空间依赖程度为12176．81～303433．70;不同时期草间小黑蛛种群的空间结构模型也均为球型,空间格局呈聚集型分布,空间相关距离在3．7328～4．8983m之间,异质系数为1．4482～4．4134,空间依赖程度为1．6941～5．8167．该结果和方法可用于监测烟田目标害虫的时空格局动态．     

地理统计学表达的麦二叉蚜及蚜茧蜂空间格局特征

应用地理统计学的原理和方法研究了不同时期麦二叉蚜及蚜茧峰种群的空间结构的空间相关性。结果表明,不同时期麦二叉蚜种群的半变异函数曲线皆为球型,其空间格局为聚集型,变程在21-61cm之间;蚜茧蜂种群的拟合半变民间函数曲线也表现为球型,呈聚集空间格局,空间变程在36-55cm之间,并与麦二叉蚜种群在数量和空间上有较强的追随关系,说明蚜茧蜂种群是麦二叉蚜种群的优势种天敌。     

大尺度下褐飞虱种群空间结构初步分析

褐飞虱是我国主要的水稻害虫,有着复杂的空间结构.地统计学可用来分析空间相关变量的结构和插值模拟空间相关变量的分布.运用地统计学中的变差函数和克立格插值法对广东省褐飞虱种群3个主要世代在早稻田间的空间结构进行分析和模拟的结果表明,大尺度的褐飞虱田间种群的空间分布为聚集型,不同世代褐飞虱种群的局部空间结构有差异,聚集的范围分别为400、200和205km;空间分布模拟地图能反映褐飞虱种群在田间的具体分布情况,广东西部地区每一世代褐飞虱的发生密度均高于东部地区.     

李园桃蚜和草间小黑蛛种群空间格局的地学统计学研究

利用地学统计学的原理和方法分析了李园桃蚜种群和草间小黑蛛种群的空间结构和时间相关性.结果表明,桃蚜种群6月27日和11月22日此两次的半变异函数拟合模型为直线,表明此两次两种空间分布为均匀分布或随机分布,其余9次半变异函数拟合模型均为球形,表明此9次李园桃蚜种群的空间分布是聚集分布,变程RSD(m)为4.173903～34.7837.草间小黑蛛空间格局5月21日、5月31日及10月19日、11月22日4次半变异函数拟合模型为直线,表明此4次种群的空间分布为均匀分布或随机分布,其余8次半变异函数拟合模型均为球形,表明此8次李园草间小黑蛛种群的空间分布是聚集分布,变程RSD(m)为2.3169～42.00711,表明草间小黑蛛种群对桃蚜种群在空间位置上具有追随关系,对其种群数量的控制有较大作用.     

白背飞虱在稻田内空 间结构的分析

白背飞虱Sogatella furcifera(Horvth)是我国重要的水稻害虫,有着复杂的空间结构。运用地统计学中的半方差函数对不同季度种植的水稻及其不同生长期中白背飞虱若虫的空间结构进行了分析。结果表明：白背飞虱迁入稻田后,其空间分布为聚集型,且聚集的范围随水稻的生长而增加;白背飞虱田间种群空间结构的局部不连续程度较小,空间相关范围为17.3?m到60?m,或大于样地直径。白背飞虱在早稻田中的种群密度和空间相关范围小于晚稻田。空间分布模拟图能较好地反映白背飞虱若虫在田间的具体分布情况。     

朝鲜球坚蚧及黑缘红瓢虫空间格局的地统计学研究

利用地统计学方法研究了不同时期朝鲜球坚蚧(Didesmococcus Koreanus Borchs)若虫及黑缘红瓢虫（Chilocorus rulidus Hope）幼虫种群的空间分布格局和空间相关性。结果表明,不同时期朝鲜球坚蚧若虫种九和黑缘红瓢虫幼虫种群的半变异函数均可拟合为球型,其空间格局为聚集型,在小尺度上,空间变异主要是由其空间自相关引起的,且不同时期格局变化不明显,变程分别为9.56-15.70m和18.83-19.74m之间。黑缘红瓢虫种群与朝鲜球坚蚧种群之间具有很强的追随关系,说明黑缘红瓢虫种群是朝鲜球坚蚧种群的优势天敌。     

温室瓜蚜种群动态的研究

瓜蚜AphisgossypiiGlover在温室黄瓜上的空间格局为聚集分布,分布的基本成分为个体群,聚集强度随密度的上升而下降;瓜蚜主要分布于中部和下部叶片。瓜蚜在温室黄瓜上呈指数增长,模型为Nt=0.1745e0.7414t(r=0.9676)。应用最优分割法将瓜蚜种群动态划分为3个阶段:初建期、发展期和高峰期。在种群初建期,有翅蚜开始迁入,数量较低,以扩散为主,分布不均匀,聚集强度较高;在发展期,瓜蚜种群不断繁殖扩散,分布日趋均匀,聚集强度逐渐下降;在高峰期,瓜蚜种群数量急剧增长到最高峰,分布至所有植株,聚集强度继续下降,此阶段后由于黄瓜植株受害枯萎,瓜蚜缺少食物而数量急剧下降。     

恩施烟区无翅桃蚜在烤烟田空间动态的地统计学分析

恩施烟区是湖北省最大烟叶生产基地,桃蚜Myzuspercicae(Sulzer)是恩施烟叶最重要的害虫之一,桃蚜在田间的发生以及传播的病毒病害逐年加重,给烟业生产带来巨大损失。进一步了解桃蚜发生动态和空间分布规律,将提高对桃蚜的预测效果并为其综合防治提供理论依据。烟区和烟田之间的迁移以有翅蚜为主,田块内部的种群动态和发生规律,无翅桃蚜发挥着更加重要的作用。受寄主生理生化特性影响,不同烟叶生育期,桃蚜空间结构的差异需要进一步验证。经典的统计学方法以纯随机变量为基础,而昆虫种群的田间分布存在空间相关性,地学统计学承认空间相关性的存在,为区域化变量的空间分布分析提供新的理论和方法。在烟叶不同生育期进行无翅桃蚜的田间密度调查,运用地统计学的方法分析了其空间特征和发生动态,模拟了无翅桃蚜在烟叶不同生育期的田间分布图,并对无翅桃蚜在不同烟叶生育期田间分布格局的相关性进行了分析。结果表明:无翅桃蚜在烟叶苗期密度最小为(5.59±4.07)头/株,烟叶旺长期虫口密度最大为(14.5±9.6)头/株;种群密度变异系数均较大(0.6147-0.7281),表明其空间分布的不均匀性,并随密度的增大而减小,表明种群密度的增大一定程度上提高了种群结构的稳定性。烟叶苗期的种群分布曲线峰度最大,表现出更高的聚集性。无翅桃蚜在烟叶苗期的135°方向和团棵期的45。方向表现为随机分布。烟叶苗期的0°方向和45°方向可用线性有基台模型拟合,其他均可用球形+指数套合模型拟合,判断球形+指数套合模型是无翅桃蚜田间分布的主要模型,属于聚集型分布的范畴。块金值、基台值和变程均随田间虫口密度的增大而增大,苗期的随机程度(0.1905—0.7186)明显大于其他时期(0.0116—0.1620)。无翅桃蚜空间分布模拟图可以清晰地看出无翅桃蚜苗期迁移,旺长期后逐渐稳定的特性。无翅桃蚜的田间分布在烟叶苗期与团棵期无明显相关性,而团棵期与旺长期以及旺长期与成熟期显著相关,再次证明烟叶苗期到团棵期,无翅桃蚜的田间分布发生较大迁移,而团棵期以后基本定殖。烟叶苗期的无翅桃蚜高度聚集在少数烟株上,及早预防可以减少烟叶苗期虫口基数,有利于桃蚜种群数量的控制。首次将平面坐标系划分为4个方向,更加准确、全面地描述昆虫种群的空间分布特征。     

珍稀濒危植物长蕊木兰种群的年龄结构与空间分布

珍稀濒危植物长蕊木兰为国家Ⅰ级保护植物。然而,由于受研究尺度和分析方法的限制,对其种群生态特征等方面仍不清楚。以云南高黎贡山原生的中山湿性常绿阔叶林4 hm2样地调查数据为基础,应用Ripley的L函数分析了长蕊木兰种群的年龄结构与空间分布格局。研究发现:(1)长蕊木兰种群的年龄结构为反"J"型,属稳定型种群。(2)长蕊木兰种群个体的空间分布格局与空间尺度关系密切,空间尺度小于75 m时为聚集分布,大于75 m时为随机分布。生境异质性在长蕊木兰种群空间分布格局的形成中可能发挥了重要的作用。(3)不同发育阶段个体的空间分布格局存在明显的差异,中树和小树阶段的分布格局在中、小尺度上呈聚集分布,在较大尺度上呈随机分布;大树阶段在整个空间尺度上均呈现随机分布。(4)长蕊木兰不同发育阶段的空间关联性主要表现为中、小尺度上的负相关,在较大尺度上则趋向于无关联。     

桥山林区麻栎种群不同发育阶段空间格局及关联性

为探究麻栎种群不同发育阶段的空间分布特征及关联性,以黄土高原南部桥山林区麻栎天然次生林为研究对象,用L(r)函数对麻栎种群不同发育阶段空间分布特征及关联性进行分析。结果表明:(1)样地内麻栎种群各发育阶段数量结构均为不规则倒"J"型,种群结构稳定,能实现持续更新。(2)麻栎种群总体的空间分布特征受生境异质性影响较大,纯林样地中,种群在0—10 m尺度上表现为高强度聚集分布,5—35 m尺度表现为低强度聚集;混交林样地中,0—5 m尺度上表现为高强度聚集分布,5—35 m尺度上则表现为低强度聚集分布。(3)随着种群的发育及尺度的增大,麻栎种群空间聚集强度减弱,纯林样地内,麻栎幼苗在0—6 m的小尺度表现为聚集分布,6—12 m尺度上表现为随机分布;幼树在各尺度上均表现为聚集分布;中龄树与成龄树在各尺度上均表现为随机分布。混交林样地中,仅幼苗在0—6 m尺度上表现为聚集分布,其余各阶段在各尺度下均趋于随机分布。(4)种群不同发育阶段不同尺度空间关联性不同,纯林样地中,幼苗与幼树在1—2 m小尺度上呈负相关,幼树与中龄树在8 m尺度呈正相关,其余各生长阶段之间在任意尺度上均无关联性;混交林样地中,幼树与中龄树在2—12 m尺度上表现为正相关,其余各生长阶段之间在各尺度上均无关联。在未来的森林经营中,应对不同发育阶段、不同生境的种群进行不同抚育措施,促进种群良性发育。     

Assessing Species Distribution Using Google Street View: A Pilot Study with the Pine Processionary Moth

Mapping species spatial distribution using spatial inference and prediction requires a lot of data. Occurrence data are generally not easily available from the literature and are very time-consuming to collect in the field. For that reason, we designed a survey to explore to which extent large-scale databases such as Google maps and Google street view could be used to derive valid occurrence data. We worked with the Pine Processionary Moth (PPM) Thaumetopoea pityocampa because the larvae of that moth build silk nests that are easily visible. The presence of the species at one location can therefore be inferred from visual records derived from the panoramic views available from Google street view. We designed a standardized procedure allowing evaluating the presence of the PPM on a sampling grid covering the landscape under study. The outputs were compared to field data. We investigated two landscapes using grids of different extent and mesh size. Data derived from Google street view were highly similar to field data in the large-scale analysis based on a square grid with a mesh of 16 km (96% of matching records). Using a 2 km mesh size led to a strong divergence between field and Google-derived data (46% of matching records). We conclude that Google database might provide useful occurrence data for mapping the distribution of species which presence can be visually evaluated such as the PPM. However, the accuracy of the output strongly depends on the spatial scales considered and on the sampling grid used. Other factors such as the coverage of Google street view network with regards to sampling grid size and the spatial distribution of host trees with regards to road network may also be determinant.     

Equilibrium or not? Modelling potential distribution of invasive species in different stages of invasion

Aim The assumption of equilibrium between organisms and their environment is a standard working postulate in species distribution models (SDMs). However, this assumption is typically violated in models of biological invasions where range expansions are highly constrained by dispersal and colonization processes. Here, we examined how stage of invasion affects the extent to which occurrence data represent the ecological niche of organisms and, in turn, influences spatial prediction of species’ potential distributions. Location Six ecoregions in western Oregon, USA. Methods We compiled occurrence data from 697 field plots collected over a 9‐year period (2001–09) of monitoring the spread of invasive forest pathogen Phytophthora ramorum. Using these data, we applied ecological‐niche factor analysis to calibrate models of potential distribution across different years of colonization. We accounted for natural variation and uncertainties in model evaluation by further investigating three hypothetical scenarios of varying equilibrium in a simulated virtual species, for which the ‘true’ potential distribution was known. Results We confirm our hypothesis that SDMs calibrated in early stages of invasion are less accurate than models calibrated under scenarios closer to equilibrium. SDMs that are developed in early stages of invasion tend to underpredict the potential range compared to models that are built in later stages of invasion. Main conclusions A full environmental niche of invasive species cannot be effectively captured with data from a realized distribution that is restricted by processes preventing full occupancy of suitable habitats. If SDMs are to be used effectively in conservation and management, stage of invasion needs to be considered to avoid underestimation of habitats at risk of invasion.     

Population Ecological Characteristics of the Rare and Endangered Plant Camellia rhytidophylla from Guizhou

Camellia rhytidophylla is endemic and endangered and with important economic species, from the ⅢD10d in eastern Asia, which distributed at 573-920m in evergreen broad leaved deciduous mixed forest in Luowang river valley of Kaiyang county. So, it is significant to study the population characteristics, conservation and utilization. We took general survey in suspected distribution area about 6 square kilometers, set up plots in dense area, and analyzed the population structure, development and spatial distribution pattern. The results showed that the structure of Crhytidophylla populations were increasing and the proportion of young tree in population was 4638%. The size of population density was young shrubs＞middle aged shrubs＞adult shrubs. The survival curve of population was Deevey Ⅲ model. There were 2 peaks in the Ⅰand Ⅳ age classes on the mortality rate curve and disappearance rate curve respectively, then there are 2 troughs in the Ⅲ and Ⅵ age classed at the same time. The spatial distribution pattern of Crhytidophylla significantly differentiated at different stages of development, the young individuals were aggregated at all spatial scales while the middle aged individuals were aggregated at small spatial scales and randomly distributed at larger scales. Differences in the distribution of adult individuals could be attributed to artificial disturbance and habitat heterogeneity. The spatial pattern was not close in different stages of development, which all showed negative or no correlation. The spatial distribution pattern of Crhytidophylla was the interaction of the factors, such as its biological characteristics,habitat heterogeneity, and artificial disturbance, etc.. The key factor limiting population development was low natural reproduction rate; the primary factors causing its endemic distribution mainly included habitat heterogeneity, topographical constraints on seed dispersal and artificial disturbance.     

科尔沁沙地盐蒿种群的空间分布格局及关联性

以科尔沁沙地半固定沙丘和流动沙丘两种不同沙丘上的盐蒿(Artemisia halodendron)种群为研究对象,采用空间点格局方法研究了 0～20 m尺度上盐蒿种群的空间分布格局及其关联性.结果表明,半固定沙丘上盐蒿种群的数量远大于流动沙丘,不同生长发育阶段的种群结构呈偏正态分布,属于稳定型种群;流动沙丘上不同生长发...     

HIERARCHICAL SPATIAL STRUCTURE AND DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS OF GENETIC DIVERSITY IN THE RED ALGA MAZZAELLA LAMINARIOIDES (GIGARTINALES, RHODOPHYTA)

Our study of the genetic structure of Mazzaella laminarioides (Bory) Fredericq (Gigartinales) in the central Chilean region documented a high level of genetic diversity based on random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers and indicated the occurrence of significant genetic structure at different spatial scales. A total of 288 haploid gametophytes was analyzed with 17 polymorphic RAPD bands, which produced 202 distinct multilocus genotypes. Within stands, mean gene diversity ranged from 0.210 to 0.249 and no significant linkage disequilibrium could be detected among pairs of alleles, revealing that recombination (sexual reproduction) regularly shuffles the genes at that scale. Analysis of molecular variance within stands (less than 30 m) showed that the structure was very low, only marginally significant, and did not increase with increasing hierarchical levels at this lowest spatial scale. In contrast, at a larger spatial scale (among stands, from 5 to 60 km), increasing geographical distance seemed to account for increasing isolation between populations even if natural barriers, such as sandy beaches or river estuaries, may play a role in such isolation. Moreover, the strong genetic differentiation occurring between locations separated by 60 km allowed the assignment of individuals to their original population through a canonical discriminant analysis. This approach further allowed the identification of potential recent migrants from one population to the other. Thus, in species like M. laminarioides for which the dominance of RAPD markers can be avoided by selecting haploid individuals, RAPD analysis appeared to be specially appropriate for the study of genetic differentiation.     

Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming

Species range shifts in response to climate and land use change are commonly forecasted with species distribution models based on species occurrence or abundance data. Although appealing, these models ignore the genetic structure of species, and the fact that different populations might respond in different ways because of adaptation to their environment. Here, we introduced ancestry distribution models, that is, statistical models of the spatial distribution of ancestry proportions, for forecasting intra-specific changes based on genetic admixture instead of species occurrence data. Using multi-locus genotypes and extensive geographic coverage of distribution data across the European Alps, we applied this approach to 20 alpine plant species considering a global increase in temperature from 0.25 to 4 °C. We forecasted the magnitudes of displacement of contact zones between plant populations potentially adapted to warmer environments and other populations. While a global trend of movement in a north-east direction was predicted, the magnitude of displacement was species-specific. For a temperature increase of 2 °C, contact zones were predicted to move by 92 km on average (minimum of 5 km, maximum of 212 km) and by 188 km for an increase of 4 °C (minimum of 11 km, maximum of 393 km). Intra-specific turnover-measuring the extent of change in global population genetic structure-was generally found to be moderate for 2 °C of temperature warming. For 4 °C of warming, however, the models indicated substantial intra-specific turnover for ten species. These results illustrate that, in spite of unavoidable simplifications, ancestry distribution models open new perspectives to forecast population genetic changes within species and complement more traditional distribution-based approaches.