Temperature data for phenological models

In an arid environment, the effect of evaporation on energy balance can affect air temperature recordings and greatly impact on degree-day calculations. This is an important consideration when choosing a site or climate data for phenological models. To our knowledge, there is no literature showing the effect of the underlying surface and its fetch around a weather station on degree-day accumulations. In this paper, we present data to show that this is a serious consideration, and it can lead to dubious models. Microscale measurements of temperature and energy balance are presented to explain why the differences occur. For example, the effect of fetch of irrigated grass and wetting of bare soil around a weather station on diurnal temperature are reported. A 43-day experiment showed that temperature measured on the upwind edge of an irrigated grass area averaged 4% higher than temperatures recorded 200 m inside the grass field. When the single-triangle method was used with a 10°C threshold and starting on May 19, the station on the upwind edge recorded 900 degree-days on June 28, whereas the interior station recorded 900 degree-days on July 1. Clearly, a difference in fetch can lead to big errors for large degree-day accumulations. Immediately after wetting, the temperature over a wet soil surface was similar to that measured over grass. However, the temperature over the soil increased more than that over the grass as the soil surface dried. Therefore, the observed difference between temperatures measured over bare soil and those over grass increases with longer periods between wettings. In most arid locations, measuring temperature over irrigated grass gives a lower mean annual temperature, resulting in lower annual cumulative degree-day values. This was verified by comparing measurements over grass with those over bare soil at several weather stations in a range of climates. To eliminate the effect of rainfall frequency, using temperature data collected only over irrigated grass, is recommended for long-term assessment of climate change effects on degree-day accumulation. In high evaporative conditions, a fetch of at least 100 m of grass is recommended. Our results clearly indicate that weather stations sited over bare soil have consistently higher degree-day accumulations. Therefore, especially in arid environments, phenology models based on temperature collected over bare soil are not transferable to those based on temperature recorded over irrigated grass. At a minimum, all degree-day-based phenology models reported in the literature should clearly describe the weather station site. Received: 25 October 2000 / Revised: 10 July 2001 / Accepted: 10 July 2001     

Evaluation of several degree-day estimation methods in California climates

 Procedures for estimating degree-day accumulations are frequently employed instead of the more accurate method of calculating degree-days from hourly temperature data because on-site temperature data are commonly restricted to daily minimum and maximum temperature records. Data from seven methods of estimating degree-days at each of nine locations during 2 years in California were compared by month to degree-day values calculated by hourly summation. Methods included three sine-wave approaches, three triangulation approaches and the averaging (i.e., rectangle) method. Results of the double-sine and corrected-sine (i.e., corrected for day length) methods were nearly identical to those of the single-sine method. The double triangulation and corrected triangulation methods produced very similar results to the single triangulation method. The averaging method and sine-wave methods deviated to a greater extent from degree-day accumulations calculated from hourly temperatures from November through February than did the triangulation methods. Degree-day estimations from the late spring and summer months were more similar to one another for all estimation methods than during the cooler months of the year. Since no advantages were noted in the more complicated double and corrected methods, the single triangulation method or the sine-wave method is preferred as they are less complicated procedures. Of the various temperature threshold cut-off methods evaluated, error levels were unaffected when estimating degree-days using the sine-wave method. The employment of a horizontal cut-off with the triangulation method did not significantly increase the amount of error in the estimation of degree-days. However, an increase in error was observed when employing the intermediate cut-off and vertical threshold cut-off techniques with the triangulation method for computing degree-days. Received: 26 May 1998 / Accepted: 28 October 1998     

A physiologically based approach for degree-day calculation in pest phenology models: the case of the European Corn Borer (<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Ostrinia nubilalis</Emphasis> Hbn.) in Northern Italy

Phenological models based on degree-day accumulation have been developed to support the integrated pest management of many insects. Most of these models are based on linear relationships between temperature and development, and on daily time step simulations using daily minimum and maximum temperatures. This approach represents an approximation that does not take into account the insect physiological response to temperature, and daily temperature fluctuations. The objective of this work has been to develop a phenological model for the European corn borer (ECB) based on the insect physiological response to temperature and running at an hourly time step. Two modeling solutions based on the same generic compartmental system have been compared: the first based on a physiologically based relationship between temperature and development, and using hourly derived temperatures as input (HNL modeling solution); and the second based on a linear relationship between temperature and degree-day accumulation and using daily temperature (DL modeling solution). The two approaches have been compared using ECB moth capture data from the Piemonte region in Northern Italy. The HNL modeling solution showed the best results for all the accuracy indicators. The DL modeling solution showed a tendency to anticipate ECB phenological development too early. This tendency is attributable to the linear relationship between temperature and development, which does not take into account (1) the decline of this relationship at high temperatures, and (2) the daily fluctuation of temperature. As a consequence, degree-days accumulation is accelerated in the DL modeling solution and the phenological development anticipated.     

The Influence of Diurnal Temperature Variation on Degree-Day Accumulation and Insect Life History

Ectotherms, such as insects, experience non-constant temperatures in nature. Daily mean temperatures can be derived from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures. However, the converse is not true and environments with the same mean temperature can exhibit very different diurnal temperate ranges. Here we apply a degree-day model for development of the grape berry moth (Paralobesia viteana, a significant vineyard pest in the northeastern USA) to investigate how different diurnal temperature range conditions can influence degree-day accumulation and, hence, insect life history. We first consider changes in diurnal temperature range independent of changes in mean temperatures. We then investigate grape berry moth life history under potential climate change conditions, increasing mean temperature via variable patterns of change to diurnal temperature range. We predict that diurnal temperature range change can substantially alter insect life history. Altering diurnal temperature range independent of the mean temperature can affect development rate and voltinism, with the magnitude of the effects dependent on whether changes occur to the daily minimum temperature (Tmin), daily maximum temperature (Tmax), or both. Allowing for an increase in mean temperature produces more marked effects on life history but, again, the patterns and magnitude depend on the nature of the change to diurnal temperature range together with the starting conditions in the local environment. The study highlights the importance of characterizing the influence of diurnal temperature range in addition to mean temperature alone.     

有效积温Sine函数拟合模型及其应用

阐述了昆虫物候分析的SSPM模型（single sine phonological model）计算方程和过程,该模型采用Sine函数拟合每天温度变化,并利用积分,获取每天有效积温和一定时间内日度累积值.SSPM重要的参数有发育起点温度和上限温度,参与模型计算包括日最高气温和日最低气温2个输入值,在输入值和参数值组合条件下,模型有6个不同计算方程.以棉铃虫（Helicoverpa armigera）为例,介绍了SSPM在昆虫发育历期分析过程,简单表述了模型预测功能.随自动化气象站分布密度增加和Internet技术的发展,模型在区域化害虫管理中有着重要的应用前景.     

The regulation of activity in populations of the terrestrial slugLimax maximus (Gastropoda; Limacidae)

The activity of the slug Limax maximus was studied in relation to weather. Three hundred-and-fifty-eight hourly observations of activity and weather were made on 21 nights from May until October, 1976. Factors causally important to molluscan activity were included in a step-down correlation-regression analysis of daily and seasonal behavior. The analysis was also performed using weather data from the previous hourly observation. Models using lag-weather did not explain as much variability as did concurrent weather. The regression models explained about 73% to 87% of the observed variation in activity. The most important factors included in the regression models were time of day (circadian rhythm), light intensity, changes in light intensity and surface temperature. Shelter temperature, temperature gradients, length of the night, and time of sunset were also included in some models. Age and hydration were shown to be key factors in other experiments. A model incorporating weather thresholds estimated from field data explained 83.06% of the variability in the activity of L. maximus over the season. The values predicted from the model did not differ significantly from those actually observed in the field (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, p>0.50).     

美国黑核桃实生苗生态生理过程对环境因素响应的数值模拟(Ⅱ):气象要素日变化进程的数理模型

在建立植物生态生理模型（如光合作用、蒸腾作用数理模型）的过程中,气温、太阳辐射、相对湿度等气象要素的日变化及瞬时资料是必不可少的．本文根据常规台站的日常观测资料,建立了气温、太阳辐射、风速、相对湿度等气象要素日变化的数理模型．并应用实测资料对所建模型进行了验证．实践表明：（1）描述气温日变化的正弦一指数模型通常其模拟结果不甚理想,但通过引用最高温度的时间延迟参数及惯性系数,可增加模拟结果的准确性．（2）根据测量的太阳辐射日总量值以及太阳高度的日变化值等,可准确地模拟太阳辐射的日变化;（3）根据实际水汽压的日均值和气温常规资料可准确模拟相对湿度的日变化．如果区域参数已知或被正确估计。上述方法可得到较为理想的气象要素日变化的模拟结果．     

长白山阔叶红松林生长季反射率特征

根据长白山阔叶红松林气象观测塔上太阳总辐射和反射辐射资料 ,计算了 2 0 0 1年 5月 2 2日～10月 14日森林下垫面的每日整点反射率 .结果表明 ,森林的反射率与太阳高度角有关 ,在太阳高度角很小的日出和日落附近反射率较高 ,太阳高度角大于 30°时反射率变化不大 ,反射率的日变化曲线为U形 .森林的反射率与天空状况有关 ,晴天条件下低太阳高度时的反射率高值明显 ,U形曲线突出 ,昙天时曲线两端高值相对较低 ,U形曲线也相对平坦 ,阴天的日变化曲线则没有明显的规律 ,在某范围内波动 .生长季反射率的变化特点为 6月上旬较高 ,6月下旬稍有下降 ,7～ 9月较稳定 ,10月上旬则逐渐下降 ,反映了冠层叶片物候变化特征 .     

1961-2014年中国沿海极端气温事件变化及区域差异分析

基于1961-2014年156个地面气象站日尺度的气温数据集,利用趋势分析、小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验、累积距平、Pettitt检验、主成分分析等方法分析了中国沿海地区极端气温事件的时空变化特征。结果表明：中国沿海及各子区域极端气温暖指数呈上升趋势,冷指数和气温日较差呈下降趋势,夜指数的年际倾向率明显大于昼指数的年际倾向率;除相对指数、极高值指数和冷（暖）持续日数的多年均值在各子区域之间相差不大以外,霜冻日数、冰冻日数以及气温日较差的多年均值从北至南依次递减,与之相反,夏季日数、热夜日数、极端气温极低值指数以及生长季长度的多年均值则从北至南依次增加。各子区域极端气温指数年际间的主周期介于2-8 a,均无显著的年代际震荡周期;各子区域极端气温指数的突变主要发生在1980s和1990s期间,冷指数和极低值指数的突变时间稍早于暖指数和极高值指数的突变时间,突变后,极端暖事件和气温的极值事件进入多发阶段,极端冷事件进入相对少发的阶段;主成分分析中第一主成分高载荷的极端气温指数对日均气温和日最高（低）气温均有较好的指示性,这类极端指数两两之间的相关性也较强,低载荷的极端气温指数对日均气温和日最高（低）气温的指示性相对较弱,与其他极端气温指数之间的相关性也均较弱。     

黄土高原两种树形苹果园花期温度垂直变化特征及预测

温度是苹果花期最为敏感的生态因子,选择两种在黄土高原区具有代表性的不同树龄和树形结构（盛果期小冠开心形和初挂果期自由纺锤形）的富士苹果园,利用小气候梯度自动测定系统在2011—2014年苹果花期进行定位观测,分析花期不同天气类型下（晴天、阴天或多云、雨天）的果园温度梯度及树体温度的变化特征,并基于气象站温度（TM）建立了果园冠下温度（TL）的推算模型.结果表明： 花期果园温度的垂直分布及与园外的差异主要取决于树形结构,而不同天气类型下的差异不显著.平均温度、日最低温度从树冠下到顶部递增,日最高温度、日较差递减.小冠开心形冠层下部晴天日较差最大,多云或阴天冠层中部和顶部日较差较自由纺锤形小.园内外温差的日变化自由纺锤形呈现高 低 高的单波谷形态、而小冠开心形呈单峰形态,园外最低温度高于冠层下部而与冠层中部的温度接近,小冠开心形冠层下的最低温度较园外最低温度更低,特别是多云或阴天更明显,而冠层中部和顶部与园外的温度差异则较自由纺锤形小.线性模型能够较好地推算树冠下部的温度,误差绝对值在1 ℃以内,特别是自由纺锤形果园和雨天条件下效果更好.     

Die küstenvegetation ostkanadas: D. Thannheiser. Münstersche Geographische Arbeiten. No. 10. Schöningh,Paderborn, 1981, 201 pp. 166 figs., 41 tables,DM. 41.50. ISBN 3-506-73210-2

Temperatures 10 and 2 cm above water level, in leaves of Salvinia molesta Mitchell, and 2 and 10 cm below water level, were measured in the field at hourly intervals over a total of 125 days. Temperature cycles of leaves and air had mean diurnal amplitudes of 8°C in summer and 17°C in winter; cycles in water lagged behind and had amplitudes which decreased with depth. Most parts of S. molesta were warmer than the air at a nearby weather station most of the time and there was temperature stratification in the water during the warm part of each day.Standard meteorological variables were selected, using stepwise regression, to predict daily maximum and minimum temperatures of S. molesta. Thermal inertia of water in the lake seemed to elevate S. molesta temperatures in autumn and depress them in spring compared with temperatures at the weather station. Better predictors were obtained by adding to meteorological variables a function based on the annual cycle of temperatures 10 cm below water level. Hourly temperatures experienced by S. molesta were predicted using curves fitted to diurnal cycles. The reliability of predictions was tested for each season of the year with independent data for a total of 78 days. Predicted temperatures were close to observed temperatures both in absolute terms and in terms of temperature-dependent growth rates of S. molesta.     

红体色麦长管蚜发育起点温度和有效积温

研究观测红体色麦长管蚜Macrosiphum avenae(Fabricius)无性世代各个若虫龄期在14,17,20,23和26℃条件下的生长发育速率。结果表明,红体色麦长管蚜各龄期若虫的发育历期随着温度的上升而缩短。采用不同的方法计算得到的红体色麦长管蚜发育起点温度和有效积温不同,而直线回归法计算的变异系数较小,其结果显示红色麦长管蚜若虫期的发育起点温度和有效积温分别是4.478℃和110.662日.度。     

11种温带树种粗木质残体呼吸的时间动态

粗木质残体(CWD)呼吸释放出的CO2(RCWD)与温度的关系是森林生态系统RCWD年通量估测的基础,是随树种和时间而变化的,但这种关系的时间动态目前尚不清楚。采用红外气体分析法测定自然条件下东北东部山区典型天然次生林中11个主要树种RCWD的时间动态,尤其注重于其日变化格局及其对温度的响应。测定树种包括:白桦、山杨、紫椴、胡桃楸、蒙古栎、色木槭、春榆、红松、黄檗、兴安落叶松和水曲柳。结果表明:在测定的生长季期间,11个树种RCWD的日动态多表现为受10cm深的CWD温度(TCWD)驱动的单峰曲线日变化格局,RCWD最高值出现在13:0015:00时,明显滞后于气温(TA)的日变化。然而,在7月和8月份RCWD对温度的响应不明显,呈现出无峰或多峰的日变化格局。各树种均表现为白昼RCWD平均值高于黑夜。RCWD与TCWD、TA有显著的相关关系(P0.05),但与测定前两个小时的TA相关更紧密,说明RCWD对TA响应的滞后性。RCWD温度系数(Q10)平均为2.61,但随树种和季节而变化。Q10值波动在1.74(白桦)和4.20(蒙古栎)之间,并有随温度升高而减小的趋势。本研究结果表明粗木质残体分解碳释放的估算应该考虑RCWD温度敏感性随树种和时间的变化特性。     

The daily,weekly, and seasonal cycles of body temperature analyzed at large scale

ABSTRACT

We performed large-scale analyses of circadian and infradian cycles of human body temperature, focusing on changes over the day, week, and year. Temperatures (n= 93,225) were collected using temporal artery thermometers from a Boston emergency department during 2009–2012 and were statistically analyzed using regression with cyclic splines. The overall mean body temperature was 36.7°C (98.1°F), with a 95% confidence interval of 36.7–36.7°C (98.1–98.1°F) and a standard deviation of 0.6°C (1.1°F). Over the day, mean body temperature followed a steady cycle, reaching its minimum at 6:00–8:00 and its maximum at 18:00–20:00. Across days of the week, this diurnal cycle was essentially unchanged, even though activities and sleeping hours change substantially during the weekly cycles of human behavior. Over the year, body temperatures were slightly colder in winter than summer (~0.2°C difference), consistent with most prior studies. We propose these seasonal differences might be due to ambient effects on body temperature that are not eliminated because they fall within the tolerance range of the thermoregulatory system. Over the year, bathyphase (daily time of minimum temperature) appeared to parallel sunrise times, as expected from sunrise’s zeitgeber role in circadian rhythms. However, orthophase (daily time of maximum temperature) and sunset times followed opposite seasonal patterns, with orthophase preceding nightfall in summer and following nightfall in winter. Throughout the year, bathyphase and orthophase remained separated by approximately 12 h, suggesting this interval might be conserved. Finally, although 37.0°C (98.6°F) is widely recognized as the mean or normal human body temperature, analysis showed mean temperature was <37.0°C during all times of day, days of the week, and seasons of the year, supporting prior arguments that the 37.0°C standard has no scientific basis. Overall, this large study showed robust and consistent behavior of the human circadian cycle at the population level, providing a strong example of circadian homeostasis.     

菹草种群内外水质日变化

对菹草(Potamogeton crispus)种群内外水体进行了昼夜连续监测,分析菹草种群内外水质的日变化趋势.结果显示,种群内DO自日出后增加,日落后持续下降,且与水温变化一致,于19:30左右出现1次明显低谷,后略有恢复,后一直降至日出前后;开阔水域DO变化与水温呈现一定相关性,但变化幅度较小;交界处DO含量兼有种群内与开阔水域的变化特点.种群内水体pH值自日出前后升高,日落时达最高值,后开始下降,直至次日出前后;交界处与种群变化趋势一致;开阔水域pH总体变化幅度较小,白天高于夜间,总体DO含量及pH分布:种群区＞交界处＞开阔水域.种群及交界处TN含量均在日出前后达最高,日出后递减,开阔水域夜间含量较高,日出前后达最高;各点NH+4-N变化规律不显著;种群内水体TP含量夜间较高,日出前后达最高值,日出后递减,日落后递增;开阔水域TP含量夜间较高,白天略低;交界处正午前后达最低值,傍晚达最高值,TN、TP总体分布:种群＜交界处＜开阔水域.菹草种群存在对水体DO、pH等环境因子均产生重要影响,继而影响水体内源性氮磷的迁移,其中对pH影响较小,其变化未能影响水体氮磷迁移,而DO昼夜变化较大,对水体内源性氮磷的迁移起重要影响.     

Estimating the potato leafhopper Empoasca fabae (Homoptera: Cicadellidae) overwintering range and spring premigrant development by using geographic information system

The potato leafhopper, Empoasca fabae (Harris), is a circular migratory pest of many crops in the United States that overwinters in the southern states. Northward migrant population arrival to the northern states occurs earlier in the north central states compared with northeastern states. Migrant leafhopper arrival to the north varies from year to year depending on factors influencing the development of spring migrants in the overwintering areas and on timing of weather systems capable of transporting the migrants northward. An estimate of the potato leafhopper minimum temperature survival, the geographic limits of the potato leafhopper overwintering range, leafhopper spring development in the overwintering areas, and the identification of the spring migration initiation northwards can help to predict the leafhopper arrival time in the northern states. In the current study, geographic information system (GIS) was used to estimate the potato leafhopper minimum temperature survival and premigrant development. The minimum winter temperature was estimated by overlaying minimum temperature isolines with potato leafhopper collection data taken during the winter, The geographic limits of the overwintering range were estimated using the minimum temperature survival to create a condition-based model by using ArcMap-GIS 8.2. The estimated overwintering range was larger and covered areas further north than previously estimated and included Missouri, Kansas, Kentucky, Virginia, and Maryland. The use of degree-day accumulation to estimate days of first adult emergence in the overwintering areas resulted in earliest adult emergence in the south central region. First adult emergence in south central and southeastern areas occurred before the detection of potato leafhoppers in the north central United States. These data suggested that the difference in population arrival between the north central states and the northeastern states was more dependent on factors affecting the migration and weather conditions encountered along the migration pathway.     

基于网络的昆虫发育进程自动模拟系统

为了有效的预测害虫的发生期,开发了昆虫发育自动模拟系统,该系统基于网络平台,应用PHP丰富的函数库和计算功能设计有效积温运算模块,通过公共气象信息系统建立了气象数据库,并根据实时及预报的公共气象信息,即逐日最高及最低气温,昆虫发育有效积温相关的生物学参数,运用正弦法计算每天的有效积温及一段时间的累计积温,自动模拟昆虫在不同时期的发育虫态和虫龄。服务器端基于Apache+PHP+MySQL架构,操作简单,调试和维护方便。经与2011年江苏通州烟粉虱Bemisia tabaci(Gennadius)、灰飞虱Laodelphax striatellus(Fallén)系统调查数据比对,符合实际发生情况,可在生产上推广应用。     

Physical modelling of globe and natural wet bulb temperatures to predict WBGT heat stress index in outdoor environments

The present paper describes a physical model that estimates the globe and the natural wet bulb temperatures from the main parameters generally recorded at meteorological weather stations, in order to predict the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress index for outdoor environments. The model is supported by a thermal analysis of the globe and the natural wet bulb temperature sensors. The results of simultaneous measurements of the WBGT and climatological parameters (solar radiation, wind velocity, humidity, etc.) are presented and used to validate the model. The final comparison between calculated and measured values shows a good agreement with the experimental data, with a maximum absolute deviation of 2.8% for the globe temperature and 2.6% for the natural wet bulb temperature and the WBGT index. The model is applied to the design reference year for Coimbra, Portugal, in order to illustrate its preventative capabilities from a practical point of view. The results clearly show that during the summer there is a critical daily period (1200–1600 hours, local standard time) during which people working outdoors should not be allowed to perform their normal activities.     

A simplified model to predict diurnal water temperature dynamics in a shallow tropical water pool

Water temperature is a critical regulator in the growth and development of malaria mosquito immatures, as they are poikilothermic. Measuring or estimating the diurnal temperature ranges to which these immatures are exposed is of the utmost importance, as these immatures will develop into adults that can transmit malaria. Recent attempts to predict the daily water temperature dynamics in mosquito breeding sites in Kenya have been successful. However, the developed model may be too complex, as the sophisticated equipment that was used for detailed meteorological observations is not widely distributed in Africa, making it difficult to predict the daily water temperature dynamics on a local scale. Therefore, we compared two energy budget models with earlier made observations of the daily water temperature dynamics in a small, shallow and clear water pool (diameter 0.96 m, depth 0.32 m) in Kenya. This paper describes (1) a complex 1-Dimensional model, and (2) a simplified second model, and (3) shows that both models mimic the water temperature dynamics in the water pool accurately. The latter model has the advantage that it only needs common weather data (air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and cloud cover) to estimate the diurnal temperature dynamics in breeding sites of African malaria mosquitoes.     

An analysis of the total phosphorus cycle in some temperate lakes: the response to enrichment

• 1 Total phosphorus (TP) cycles were examined in seventeen lakes from the Scottish lowlands and Northern Ireland, which varied in annual mean TP from 17 to 192 μg Pl^-1.
• 2 It is clear from the data that the annual range of TP concentrations increases as the annual maximum TP increases. Although the annual minimum TP increases somewhat with increasing annual maxima, even enriched lakes show a pronounced TP minimum. As a result, the annual maximum values are highly correlated with the ranges and means, but less so with the annual minima.
• 3 The data are discussed in relation to a conceptual sine wave model and it is suggested that enrichment modulates the amplitude of the sine wave.
• 4 Mechanisms conditioning the maximum and minimum values are reviewed.