Impact of a strong typhoon on the structure and dynamics of an old-growth beech (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Fagus crenata</Emphasis>) forest,southwestern Japan

Typhoon no. 19 of 1991 (T9119) caused multiple treefalls and created large openings in an old-growth beech (Fagus crenata) forest at Mt. Daisen, in the Daisen Forest Reserve, southwestern Japan. The area of the largest opening was about 1.7 ha (300 m by 70 m). To predict the dynamics of the beech stand after the disturbance of T9119, we investigated the damage to the stand and the density and growth rate of trees with DBH=5–10 cm in a 1-ha plot covering a large part of the largest opening and the adjacent closed canopy. The beech did not regenerate immediately. The regeneration and growth rate of trees with DBH=5–10 cm were related to the frequency of the typhoon attack for at least the past century. In beech forests, small gap formation is the prevailing mode of disturbance. Our results indicate that typhoons affect the structure and dynamics of this beech stand. We suggest that both small gap formation and large-scale disturbance are important for the maintenance of beech forest in some areas.     

Differences in beech (Fagus crenata) regeneration between two types of Japanese beech forest and along a snow gradient

Differences in beech (Fagus crenata) regeneration were quantitatively investigated using power function analysis for the size–class (diameter at breast height, DBH) distribution and juvenile-to-canopy tree (J/C) ratio along a snow gradient throughout Japan. In snowy areas, all species combined, as well as F. crenata alone, showed constant regeneration, with parameter b≈−1.6 for the power function y=ax ^b (x=DBH, y=density), which is related to the DBH–class distribution. The good fit of the data to the function suggests that beech regenerates constantly with self-thinning patch dynamics. Parameter a, which indicates the abundance of small trunks, was high. Furthermore, the mean J/C ratio was ≈8, i.e., each parent beech tree produced eight juveniles. These results suggest that beech regenerates constantly with gap dynamics in snowy beech forests on the Japan Sea side of Japan (snowy). However, the fit of F. crenata was lower and nonsignificant in some forests in less snowy areas, despite the high fit of all species combined. In these areas, the mean of a was low, and b was often near zero for F. crenata regressions. These results suggest that the abundance of beech was low, and self-thinning was not evident because of the initial low abundance. Moreover, the mean J/C ratio was <1.0, suggesting that juvenile density was lower than that of canopy trees. Thus, the regeneration of F. crenata on the Pacific Ocean side of Japan (less snowy) is rather sporadic. Less snowy conditions may promote seed desiccation, predation of beechnuts and seedlings, and water stress. Lower F. crenata density may also reduce predator satiation and wind pollination.     

Treefall gap disturbance in an old‐growth beech forest in southwestern Japan by a catastrophic typhoon

Abstract. In 1991, the catastrophic Typhoon 9119 created many treefall gaps in an old‐growth beech (Fagus crenata) forest on Mt. Garyu, southwestern Japan. In a 3.3‐ha plot, the density and basal area of fatally damaged trunks (DBH ≥ 20 cm) were 29.1 trunks/ha (16.9% of all pre‐typhoon trunks) and 9.1 m²/ha (24.4% of total pre‐typhoon basal area), respectively. Many of the dominant beech were lost and larger trunks were damaged. The pre‐ and post‐typhoon DBH distribution both had an inverse J‐shape. Spatial distribution of living trunks was not random but clustered irrespective of typhoon damage or DBH size, suggesting that the stand structure of the study plot would be an unusual one as compared with the previous study stands in Japanese beech forests. The death of pre‐typhoon trunks, seemed to die standing or to be killed by snap‐off, occurred singly; however, the typhoon fatally damaged many clustered trunks at the same time. Uprooting was the most frequent cause of gaps created by the typhoon. The intermediate DBH size class (40–70 cm) would be more likely to be uprooted than snapped‐off. The DBH distribution of snap‐off may reflect the total pre‐typhoon trunk distribution. Branch‐fall had a flat DBH distribution. Uprooting might have a clustered distribution, while snap‐off and branch‐fall both had random distributions. The smaller trunks of snap‐off and branch‐fall seemed to result from injuries caused by the fall of larger trunks.     

Natural disturbance and tree species coexistence in an old-growth beech - dwarf bamboo forest,southwestern Japan

Abstract. The structure and composition of a cool-temperate old-growth beech (Fagus crenata) - dwarf bamboo (Sasa spp.) forest, partially affected by landslide disturbance, in the Daisen Forest Reserve of southwestern Japan, were investigated in relation to forest floor and canopy conditions. All stems ≥ 4 cm DBH were mapped on a 4-ha plot and analyses were made of population structure, spatial distribution and spatial association of major tree species. The dominant species, F. crenata, which had the maximum DBH among the species present, had the highest stem density. However, for other species, larger-sized species had lower stem density with few smaller stems or saplings, while smaller-sized species had higher stem density with many smaller stems or saplings. Canopy trees of F. crenata were distributed randomly in the plot, while its stems in the other layers and all other species were distributed patchily. Small patches represent gap-phase regeneration. Larger patches correlate with landslide disturbance, difference in soil age, or the presence/absence of Sasa. Cluster analysis for spatial associations among species and stems in the different layers revealed that the forest community consists of several groups. One main group was formed on sites not covered with Sasa. This group contained a successional subgroup (from Betula grossa to Acer mono and/or F. crenata) initiated by landslide disturbance and a subgroup of tree species that avoid Sasa. Another group was formed on sites with mature soils covered largely with Sasa. This contained associations of canopy trees of F. crenata and smaller-sized tree species such as Acanthopanax sciadophylloides and Acer japonicum. It is found that the community of this old-growth beech forest is largely organized by natural disturbance and heterogeneous conditions of the forest floor (difference in soil age and presence/absence of Sasa). The existence of these different factors and the different responses of species to them largely contribute to the maintenance of tree species diversity in this forest.; Keywords: Cluster analysis; Fagus crenata; Forest dynamics; Gap; Landslide; Spatial pattern.     

Tree competition and species coexistence in a cool-temperate old-growth forest in southwestern Japan

Abstract. The growth dynamics and mode of competition between adult trees ≥ 4 cm in DBH (stem diameter at breast height 1.3 m) of eight abundant species occupying ca. 90 % of the total basal area were investigated in a 4-ha study plot (200 m × 200 m) of a cool-temperate, old-growth forest on Mount Daisen, southwestern Japan. In the study plot, 30 tree species with individuals ≥ 4.0 cm DBH co-occurred. A bimodal DBH distribution showing upper and lower-canopy layers was found for the most dominant and largest species, Fagus crenata (ca. 78 % of the total basal area), whilst other tree species showed unimodal DBH distributions corresponding mostly to the lower-canopy layer. We developed a model for individual growth incorporating both intra and interspecific competition and the degree of competitive asymmetry. Onesided interspecific competition was detected only from Fagus crenata (upper-canopy species) to Acer japonicum and Acanthopanax sciadophylloides (lower-canopy species) on the scale of the 4-ha study plot. Only Acanthopanax sciadophylloides showed symmetric intraspecific competition. However, a positive (non-competitive) interspecific relationship between adult trees prevailed over a competitive relationship; for example, individual DBH growth rate of Fagus crenata (especially lower-canopy trees) was correlated with the abundance of Acer mono. The positive relationship represented a group of species with similar habitat preference [soil type (mature or immature) caused by landslide disturbance and the presence/absence of Sasa dwarf bamboos in the understorey], where tree densities were not so high as to bring about competition. Competitive interactions between adult trees ≥ 4 cm in DBH occurred only locally between a few specific species and were suggested to be almost irrelevant to the variation in species coexistence on the 4-ha scale of cool-temperate forest. Rather, the coexistence of 30 tree species (species diversity) on this large scale was suggested to be governed by the regeneration pattern of each component species (habitat preference, seedling establishment, sapling competition) with respect to landslide disturbance.     

Morphological and physiological responses of Siebold’s beech (Fagus crenata) seedlings grown under CO2 concentrations ranging from pre-industrial to expected future levels

Siebold’s beech (Fagus crenata) is a common species in the cool temperate forests of Japan. As the natural regeneration of beech forests is expected to contribute to forest conservation in the future, we investigated the effects of different CO₂ concentrations ([CO₂]) on the growth of beech seedlings in relation to morphological and physiological changes. Acorns collected from beech forest in Minakami, central Japan were germinated and grown during a first growing season of 6 months under four [CO₂] levels (200, 350, 550, and 750 μL L⁻¹). Stem mass increased with increasing [CO₂]; however, root mass did not change significantly among the treatments. As [CO₂] increased, net photosynthetic rate (P _n) and leaf area increased, whereas transpiration (T _r), stomatal conductance, leaf chlorophyll content, and leaf longevity decreased. Although water-use efficiency (WUE; i.e., P _n/T _r) improved with increasing [CO₂], the density of stomata did not significantly change. Increases in the number of buds and the terminal bud length with increasing [CO₂] indicated accelerated formation of additional branches and leaves in the next season. The enhanced WUE levels seen in beech saplings growing under the higher environmental [CO₂] levels that are expected in the future may be advantageous for their survival, considering that beech saplings prefer mesic conditions.     

Regeneration dynamics, causal factors, and characteristics of pacific ocean-type beech (Fagus crenata) forests in Japan: A review

This paper reviews the differences in the distribution and regeneration ofFagus crenata between two types of Japanese beech forests, the Japan Sea (JS)-type and the Pacific Ocean (PO)-type, and discusses the causal factors and characteristics of these forests, particularly the PO-type.F. crenata in PO-type forests regenerates sporadically rather than constantly, whereas regeneration in the JS-type forests is relatively constant with gap dynamics.F. crenata has dominated in snowy areas both in the past, after the last glacial age, when there was less human disturbance, and in the present. Snow accumulation facilitates beech regeneration in snowy JS-type forests, but not in the less snowy PO-type. Snow protects beechnuts from damage caused by rodents, desiccation, and freezing. In addition, snow suppresses dwarf bamboo in the spring, thus increasing the amount of sunlight available for beech seedlings on the forest floor. Snow also supplies melt water during the growing season and limits the distribution of herbivores. Moreover, snow reduces the number of forest fires during the dry winter and early spring seasons. The low densities ofF. crenata impede its regeneration, because disturbed wind pollination lowers seed fertility and predators are less effectively satiated. In snowy JS-type beech forests,F. crenata dominates both at the adult and the juvenile stages because it regenerates well, while other species are eliminated by heavy snow pressure. On the less snowy PO-side, deciduous broad-leaved forests with various species are a primary feature, althoughF. crenata dominates because of its large size and long lifespan.     

Discontinuous DBH–height relationship of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cryptomeria japonica</Emphasis> on Yakushima Island: effect of frequent typhoons on the maximum height

The mountain zone of Yakushima Island is covered with a mixed conifer-broadleaved forest dominated by old-growth Cryptomeria japonica (L.f.) D. Don trees. Even though Yakushima Island has been frequently struck by typhoons with wind velocities exceeding 55 m s⁻¹, the Cr. japonica trees in the mountain zone have survived for thousands of years without fatal damage. To evaluate the effect of storms on tree growth, the relationships between the stem diameter at breast height (DBH) and the heights of Cr. japonica and coexistent tree species were investigated. Two models based on an expanded allometric equation and a discontinuous piecewise allometric equation, respectively, to represent DBH–height relationships were evaluated. In all plots, the DBH–height relationship of Cr. japonica was discontinuous between small DBH and large DBH individuals. The tops of the large DBH individuals of Cr. japonica were lost to strong winds. However in each instance, they occupied the highest position in the canopy, even if they had lost their tops. In contrast, the DBH–height relationships of subcanopy broadleaved species were continuous in many plots and the equilibrium heights of the dominant broadleaved species were similar and almost in the same order regardless of the canopy heights of Cr. japonica. These results revealed a constant vertical structure in the Cr. japonica forest on Yakushima Island. Our results demonstrate a vertical niche segregation in the forest under high wind pressures and such vertical structure enables effective use of forest space and increases the basal area density.     

Diversity and ecology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Armillaria</Emphasis> species in virgin forests in the Ukrainian Carpathians

In this study, we investigated the diversity and ecology of Armillaria species in virgin pure beech and mixed conifer forests (15,000 ha) of the Carpathian Biosphere Reserve in Ukraine. Armillaria rhizomorphs were systematically sampled, both from the soil and from the root collar of trees (epiphytic), on 79 plots (25 × 20 m) of a 1.5 × 1.5 km grid. In both forest massifs, rhizomorphs were present in the majority of the soil samples, with an estimated dry weight of 512 kg/ha in the pure beech forests and 223 kg/ha in the mixed conifer forests. Similarly, in both forest massifs, most of the trees inspected had rhizomorphs at the root collar. Species identification based on DNA analyses showed that all five annulated European Armillaria species occur in these virgin forests, as previously observed in managed forests in central Europe. However, differences in the frequencies of the single species were observed. The predominance of the preferentially saprotrophic A. cepistipes and A. gallica (84 and 15% of the specimens, respectively) and the absence of significant pathogenic activity suggest that in these virgin forests Armillaria species are most likely to behave as saprotrophs. Forest management may increase the frequency of the pathogenic species A. ostoyae, which is rare in virgin forests.     

Isolation and characterization of polymorphic microsatellite loci in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ardisia crenata</Emphasis> (Myrsinaceae)

Ardisia crenata, an evergreen shrub native to East Asia, has been a serious invasive plant to the southeastern USA. Here 13 polymorphic microsatellite loci were isolated and characterized from an enrichment genomic library of A. crenata. The average allele number of these microsatellites was four per locus, ranging from two to seven. The ranges of observed and expected heterozygosity were 0.000–1.000 and 0.239–0.789, respectively. These microsatellite markers will be useful for investigating population genetics and reproductive ecology of A. crenata.     

Suppression and release during canopy recruitment in Fagus crenata and Acer mono in two old-growth beech forests in Japan

Beech forests occur widely in the mountains on the main island of Japan. Wind storm is the major regime that causes canopy disturbances in these forests. Fagus crenata Blume is a dominant, and Acer mono Maxim., also a canopy species, co-occurs in these forests. It has been suggested that A. mono is less shade-tolerant than F. crenata. Using dendrochronological data, this study describes suppression and release histories during canopy recruitment for these two species in two old-growth beech forests (at Takahara and Kaname) and provides support for the shade tolerance suggestion given above. In addition, disturbance histories over the past 130 or 160 yr in the two forests have been reconstructed. At Takahara, the forest experienced more frequent wind storms, was about 10–15 m shorter and less dense than that at Kaname. Kaname is in a heavy snow region. On average, F. crenata experienced 1.4 and 2.5 definable episodes of suppression during canopy recruitment at Takahara and Kaname, respectively. At Kaname, the average length of total suppression was 66 yr, and 34 yr at Takahara. On average, at final release, the beech trees had a diameter of 25 cm and an age of about 125 yr old, which were twice as large and twice as old as those at Takahara. In contrast, at the two sites, A. mono experienced similar average numbers of episodes (1.6 episodes at Takahara and 1.8 episodes at Kaname) and similar average length of total suppression (37 yr at Takahara and 30 yr at Kaname) during canopy recruitment. At both sites, at final release, the maple had an average diameter of about 18 cm and an average age of some 70 yr. Our results have revealed that F. crenata is able to be tolerant of a longer shade suppression than A. mono. At Kaname, the canopy disturbances deduced from tree-ring data were more intense or frequent than those at Takahara, This contrasted with occurrences of wind storms at the two sites.     

Biomass Expansion Factors of Natural Japanese Red Pine (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus densiflora</Emphasis>) Forests in Korea

Biomass expansion factors, which convert the timber volume (or dry weight) to biomass, are used to estimate the forest biomass and account for the carbon budget at the national or regional level. This study estimated the biomass conversion and expansion factors (BCEF), root to shoot ratio (R), biomass expansion factors (BEF) of natural Japanese Red Pine (Pinus densiflora Sieb. et Zucc.) forests based on direct field measurements and publications in Korea. This study attempted to fit the non-linear relationships between the biomass expansion factors (BCEF and BEF) and main stand factors [stand age, tree height, and diameter at breast height (DBH)]. The relationship between BEF and each main stand factor was expressed as a simple logarithmical equation. The BCEF was also expressed as a logarithmical equation of the tree height, DBH, and stand volume, whereas there was no significant relationship between BCEF and stand age. The mean value for BCEF, BEF, and R was 0.5821 Mg m⁻³ (n = 22, SD = 0.1196), 1.4465 (n = 22, SD = 0.2905), and 0.2220 (n = 17, SD = 0.0687), respectively. The values of the biomass expansion factors in this study may indicate much representativeness to estimate forest biomass in natural Japanese Red Pine forests of Korea than the default values given by the IPCC (2003, 2006).     

Establishment of the evergreen broad-leaved tree species Castanopsis cuspidata in an abandoned secondary forest in western Japan

Recently, populations of Castanopsis cuspidata have often expanded into secondary forests in western Japan. To determine the establishment processes of this species, we analyzed its spatial distribution in a secondary forest dominated by Quercus variabilis and Quercus serrata that is located adjacent to a stand dominated by C. cuspidata. Saplings, defined as ≥30 cm stem length (SL) and <5 cm diameter at breast height (DBH), were abundant and their size distribution was inversely J-shaped, indicating continuous recruitment. Although seedlings (SL < 30 cm) and small saplings (30 ≤ SL < 50 cm) of C. cuspidata were aggregated near flowering trees of this species, some were found ≥40 m from the nearest adults, suggesting that there is animal-aided dispersal of acorns. The distribution of larger-sized individuals (≥100 cm SL) of C. cuspidata was unrelated to distance from the nearest flowering C. cuspidata or dominant Quercus species (≥5 cm DBH), but was associated with dead Pinus densiflora trees, which were abundant at the site. Thus, the establishment of C. cuspidata in this forest is controlled mainly by two factors, viz. patterns of acorn dispersal by animals, and forest disturbance regime (i.e., deaths of pine trees).     

Differential survival among life stages contributes to co‐dominance of Abies mariesii and Abies veitchii in a sub‐alpine old‐growth forest

Questions: Are there interspecific differences in mortality and recruitment rates across life stages between two shade‐tolerant dominant trees in a sub‐alpine old‐growth forest? Do such differences in demography contribute to the coexistence and co‐dominance of the two species? Location: Sub‐alpine, old‐growth forest on Mt. Ontake, central Honshu, Japan. Methods: From 1980 to 2005, we recorded DBH and status (alive or dead) of all Abies mariesii and A. veitchii individuals (DBH ≥ 5 cm) in a 0.44‐ha plot. Based on this 25 year census, we quantified mortality and recruitment rates of the two species in three life stages (small tree, 5 cm ≤ DBH < 10 cm; subcanopy tree, 10 cm ≤ DBH < 20 cm; canopy tree, DBH ≥ 20 cm). Results: Significant interspecific differences in mortality and recruitment rates were observed in both the small tree and sub‐canopy tree stages. In this forest, saplings (< 5 cm DBH) are mostly buried by snow‐pack during winter. As a consequence, saplings of A. mariesii, which is snow and shade tolerant, show higher rates of recruitment into the small tree stage than do those of A. veitchii. Above the snow‐pack, trees must tolerate dry, cold temperatures. A. veitchii, which can more readily endure such climate conditions, showed lower mortality rate at the subcanopy stage and a higher recruitment rate into the canopy tree stage. This differential mortality and recruitment among life‐stages determines relative dominance of the two species in the canopy. Conclusion: Differential growth conditions along a vertical gradient in this old forest determine survival of the two species prior to reaching the canopy, and consequently allow co‐dominance at the canopy stage.     

Tree mortality and effects of release from competition in an old‐growth Fagus‐Abies‐Picea stand

Abstract. In a montane mixed Fagus‐Abies‐Picea forest in Babia Gora National Park (southern Poland), the dynamics of an old‐growth stand were studied by combining an 8‐yr annual census of trees in a 1‐ha permanent sample plot with radial increments of Abies and Picea growing in the central part of the plot. The mortality among the canopy trees was relatively high (10% in 8 yr), but the basal area increment of surviving trees slightly exceeded the losses caused by tree death. DBH increment was positively correlated with initial diameter in Abies and Picea, but not in Fagus. For individual trees smaller than the median height, basal area increment was positively related to the basal area of old snags and the basal area of recently deceased trees in their neighbourhood, but negatively related to the basal area of live trees. Dendrochronological analysis of the past growth patterns revealed numerous periods of release and suppression, which were usually not synchronized among the trees within a 0.3 ha plot. The almost normal distribution of canopy tree DBH and the small number of young individuals in the plot indicated that stand dynamics were synchronized over a relatively large area and, hence, were consistent with the developmental phase concept. On the other hand, the lack of synchronization among periods of growth acceleration in individual mature Abies and Picea trees conforms more closely to the gap‐dynamics paradigm.     

Implications of 19th century landscape patterns for the recovery of Fagus crenata forests

Questions: What is the effect of the 19th century (pre‐industrialization) landscape pattern on the recovery of climax forests in cool‐temperate mountain areas dominated by Fagus crenata (Japanese beech)? Location: Secondary forests on Mt. Daisen, western Japan. Methods: Vegetation patterns before and after industrialization were obtained from maps drawn in 1898 and 1979. Tree measurements were made in 12 plots in 1997. Correlation between current Fagus crenata dominance and forest edge in the 19th century was analysed using an S‐shaped regression curve. Fagus juvenile density was counted in the plots, and distances from each plot to the five nearest mother trees were measured to determine the dispersal kernel. Results: Secondary grassland covered a substantial area in 1898, whereas forest covered most of the area in 1997. Fagus was dominant in places in the interior forest 100 years ago, and mature Fagus trees were absent in secondary forests that had been grasslands in 1898. The expected number of juveniles decreased to one individual per 100 m² at 43.5 m from the mother tree. Conclusions: The pre‐industrialization landscape greatly affected recovery of Fagus forest. Forests found on the 1898 vegetation map might have acted as refugia for Fagus. The limited dispersal ability of Fagus suggests that it would take many generations (several hundred years) for Fagus forests to recover at the centre of what had been grasslands in the 19th century.     

How long has the ‘hotspot’ been ‘hot’? Past stand-scale structures at Siggaboda nature reserve in southern Sweden

Fossil pollen and plant macrofossils over the last 2000 years are documented from three small forest hollows in Southern Sweden. One of the sites is inside a 5 ha highly prized old growth mixed Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies forest of high biodiversity which has been protected since 1940. The other two hollows are located 400 and 700 m away in an outlying buffer zone established in 1995 which is mainly coniferous plantation forest. The results show that the area has been forested for at least 2000 years, but that forest composition has been under continuous change, most rapid over the last 200 years. The reduction of deciduous tree pollen particularly Quercus, Tilia, Alnus and Corylus, and the immigration of Fagus and Picea can be observed at all three sites. However, the temperate deciduous trees (Quercus or Fagus) have been much more common in the ‘hotspot’ than in the surrounding forests over the last c. 200 years, and significantly more common at least 2000 years before that. Even though the vegetation has been dynamic through time, the lower human intervention in the ‘hotspot’ area compared with the surrounding matrix forests has facilitated the longevity of deciduous trees and the many rare species which are associated with them. The palaeoecological record of key species and information on past use of the wider forest area revealed in this study, indicates how future management will require flexibility to maintain conservation ‘hotspots’.     

Invasion by native tree species prevents biotic homogenization in novel forests of Puerto Rico

There is concern that secondary forests dominated by introduced species, known as novel forests, increase taxonomical similarity between localities and lead to biotic homogenization in human-dominated landscapes. In Puerto Rico, agricultural abandonment has given way to novel forests dominated by the introduced African tulip tree Spathodea campanulata Beauv. (Bignoniaceae). In this study, I characterized the tree species composition of S. campanulata forests in Puerto Rico as means to evaluate if biotic homogenization is occurring. Non-metric multidimensional scaling was used to examine what variables were related to the large (≥10 cm diameter at breast height [DBH]), small (≥2.5 to <10 cm DBH), and juvenile (<2.5 cm DBH) tree species composition of 20 sites. Species composition was strongly related to substrate properties, less related to land use history, and unrelated to spatial attributes. The introduced species component was low (mean = 17%, S.E. = 1.8) and compositional differences were mostly due to native tree species of secondary to old growth forests on equivalent substrates. Animals appear to disperse most species (86%) into these forests yet because of this some introduced species will persist. Although uncommon species were largely absent, recent species establishment is shaped by substrate properties making biotic homogenization in these forests unlikely. The S. campanulata forests of Puerto Rico facilitate native tree species establishment in lands where poor management practices extirpated the original forest. These results highlight the importance of remnant old growth forests or trees that act as seed dispersal sources and facilitate native species recovery in novel forests.     

Probability distributions,vulnerability and sensitivity in Fagus crenata forests following predicted climate changes in Japan

Question: How much is the probability distribution of Fagus crenata forests predicted to change under a climate change scenario by the 2090s, and what are the potential impacts on these forests? What are the main factors inducing such changes? Location: The major islands of Japan. Methods: A predictive distribution model was developed with four climatic factors (summer precipitation, PRS; winter precipitation, PRW; minimum temperature of the coldest month, TMC; and warmth index, WI) and five non‐climatic factors (topography, surface geology, soil, slope aspect and inclination). A climate change scenario was applied to the model. Results: Areas with high probability (> 0.5) were predicted to decrease by 91%, retreating from the southwest, shrinking in central regions, and expanding northeastwards beyond their current northern limits. A vulnerability index (the reciprocal of the predicted probability) suggests that Kyushu, Shikoku, the Pacific Ocean side of Honshu and southwest Hokkaido will have high numbers of many vulnerable F. crenata forests. The forests with high negative sensitivity indices (the difference between simulated probabilities of occurrence under current and predicted climates) mainly occur in southwest Hokkaido and the Sea of Japan side of northern Honshu. Conclusion: F. crenata forest distributions may retreat from some islands due to a high WI. The predicted northeastward shift in northern Hokkaido is associated with increased TMC and PRS. High vulnerability and negative sensitivity of the forests in southern Hokkaido are due to increased WI.