中国北方气候干湿变化及干旱演变特征

利用中国北方15个省(区、市)320个气象站1960—2014年逐月降水量资料,运用标准化降水指数(SPI)、标准差和相关分析等方法,基于不同时间尺度,对近55年来中国北方及不同干湿区气候干湿时空变化特征进行分析,并从干旱站次比、干旱强度等方面分析了年际干旱的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)1960—2014年中国北方地区整体呈变干趋势,年际干旱站次比和干旱强度在同步波动中均呈下降趋势。(2)1960—2014年北方地区春季和冬季呈湿润化趋势,冬季湿润化趋势最明显,夏季和秋季呈干旱化趋势,夏季干旱化趋势最显著,夏季降水对年干湿状况的变化起决定性作用。(3)湿润区和半湿润区有干旱化趋势,而干旱区和半干旱区均呈湿润化趋势发展;湿润区和半湿润区年际干旱站次比、干旱强度呈上升趋势,而干旱区和半干旱区则相反。(4)中国北方东部季风区的湿润区和半湿润区以及处于季风区和非季风区分界线两侧的半湿润区和半干旱区气候干湿变化均呈显著同步波动变化趋势,而中国北方东部季风区的湿润区和半湿润区与中国北方西部非季风区的干旱区气候干湿变化呈显著反向波动变化趋势,夏季具有同样的规律,而冬季和春季四大干湿区干湿变化具有较好的同步一致性。     

基于SPEI指数的长江中下游流域干旱时空特征分析

基于长江中下游流域1961—2015年129个气象站点的逐日气温和降水数据,利用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),对长江中下游流域近55年年尺度及各季节干旱变化趋势、站次比、强度和频率进行了分析,并探讨了干旱和区域气温、降水变化及ENSO的关系。结果表明:(1)在区域尺度,近55年长江中下游流域年尺度、春季和秋季呈干旱化趋势,春季干旱化趋势显著;夏季和冬季呈湿润化趋势。空间变化上,对于年尺度,汉江流域、中游干流区及洞庭湖流域以干旱化趋势为主,鄱阳湖流域、下游干流区和太湖流域以湿润化趋势为主;春季和秋季分别有96.90%和92.25%的站点呈干旱化趋势;夏季和冬季分别有82.95%和72.87%的站点呈湿润化趋势。(2)年尺度、春季和秋季干旱站次比及强度均呈增加趋势,春旱站次比与强度增加趋势显著;夏季和冬季干旱站次比和强度均呈下降趋势。(3)年尺度和春季干旱频率在21世纪初均达到最高,年尺度、春季和夏季干旱频率从20世纪90年代到21世纪初均呈增加趋势。(4)春、秋季干旱化趋势与降水量的减少及气温的上升相关,夏、冬季降水量的增加使得夏、冬季呈湿润化趋势。冬季SOI和次年春季干旱相关性极显著,冬季发生拉尼娜事件时,次年春季更易发生干旱。     

多尺度下宝鸡地区干旱动态格局演变及其与植被覆盖的关系

利用宝鸡地区11个气象站点1974—2013年逐月气温和降水量数据,基于标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),结合土地利用/覆盖数据,从干旱发生频率、发生强度及与植被NDVI相关性等角度,探讨了近40年来干旱时空变化格局及其对植被覆盖的响应。结果显示:宝鸡地区年均SPEI指数以-2.50%/a的速度下降,干旱趋势明显增强。自20世纪末以来,全区年均干旱指数呈明显的上升趋势,以2007—2010年增大趋势最为显著(超过0.05临界线);近40年来,春季干旱发生频率达60%及以上的有21 a,达90%以上的有9a。1981—1986年起伏变化最为剧烈。秋季平均干旱发生频率为46.29%,为春、夏、秋、冬4个季节中最低。从干旱发生强度来看,全区年际、四季及月6个时间尺度上干旱强度高、低值区域分布均比较集中;秋季强度最弱的区域面积表现最高,占总面积的75.47%。干旱发生最严重的是春季,占总面积的11.90%。全区干旱与植被覆盖相关性均表现较好(均通过0.05显著性水平检验),林地、草地负相关性最为显著(除夏季),夏季、秋季、月尺度上,耕地、水域、城乡地区干旱与植被覆盖的相关性与土地利用类型无关。     

基于综合气象干旱指数的石羊河流域近50年气象干旱特征分析

借助数理统计理论和GIS空间分析技术,利用综合气象干旱指数(composite index,CI),根据石羊河流域5个气象站1961-2010年实测气象资料,对石羊河流域近50a的干旱在时空上的变化特征进行分析.首先计算了各站历年逐日的CI指数,统计近50 a各站点出现的干旱过程、各时段的干旱事件,在此基础上分析了石羊河流域干旱发生的频率、覆盖范围和强度和不同等级干旱发生的多年平均日数.分析结果表明:(1)石羊河流域四季干旱发生频率均呈现北高南低的空间分布规律;在四季中,夏季干旱发生频率最高,冬季频率最低;极小值都在乌鞘岭,极大值略有不同:春、夏、冬季干旱发生频率极大值在民勤,秋季极大值在武威.(2)石羊河流域有大范围干旱发生的年份夏季和秋季较多分别有22 a、11a,冬季最少只有4a.(3)石羊河流域不同等级干旱日数总体上呈现夏季多冬季少、北部多南部少的规律,和降水量的空间分布有较好的负相关性.(4)干旱发生成因除了主要受东亚季风和西南季风的影响外,还应考虑到径流的影响.研究结果与实际情况相符,可为相关部门根据本地区干旱特征制定相应抗旱对策提供理论依据.     

基于主成分分析的广西省干旱时空格局

广西省地处喀斯特地貌区,土壤保水效率低,且年降水时空分布不均,研究干旱时空分布尤为重要。基于广西省1981—2010年20个气象站实测和2011—2100年HadGEM2-ES模型模拟数据,利用标准化降水指数(SPI, Standardized Precipitation Index)和标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI,Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index),分析广西省干旱的时空变化。对不同时间尺度的SPI和SPEI应用主成分分析(PCA,Principal Component Analysis)确定干旱的空间模式,结果揭示了3个空间分布明确的区域:桂东北地区(PC1),桂西北地区(PC2)和桂南地区(PC3)。各区域干旱的时空变化和频率分布差异显著。PC1和PC3的SPEI-12呈负增长趋势,PC2的SPEI-12呈正增长趋势,且PC1、PC2和PC3的SPI-12均大于SPEI-12。年尺度(SPEI-12)上PC1和PC3的干旱频率大于PC2,其干旱频率分别为34.24%和35.83%。SPI和SPEI在空间和时间尺度上相关,且具有高度可比性。SPEI因子载荷的空间模式优于SPI,严重干旱年份(1988、1996和2003年)的SPI值明显小于SPEI,且SPEI检测到的干旱频率较高。研究结果可作为广西省干旱预测、评估及其风险管理和应用决策的重要科学基础,也可为广西省区域社会经济发展提供重要的科学参考。     

黑龙江省大豆生长季旱涝时序特征及其对产量的影响

气候变化背景下黑龙江省降水时空分布不均,旱涝转换频繁,不利于黑龙江省的大豆安全生产。为研究黑龙江省大豆生长季旱涝对大豆产量的影响机制,基于黑龙江省60个气象站点1961—2018年逐日降水量数据和同期大豆单产数据,选取标准化降水指数(SPI)为旱涝判识指数,分析黑龙江省大豆生长季旱涝的时序特征,以及大豆不同生育阶段旱涝对其产量的影响。结果表明: 1961—2018年,大豆生长季干旱影响范围整体呈微弱的减小趋势,雨涝影响范围整体呈现弱的增加趋势;而同期干旱和雨涝强度总体均呈微弱的增加趋势,以雨涝强度稍强;干旱和雨涝同时发生的几率占比60.3%。大豆生长季或将进入一个较湿润阶段,2012—2018年间,雨涝的影响范围和发生强度均明显高于干旱,有6年均发生了全域性或区域性雨涝,其中,5年发生中度雨涝。不同区域大豆生长季旱涝对其产量影响程度有所差异,西北部、北部和东部地区雨涝的影响均明显大于干旱的影响,中部地区干旱和雨涝的影响程度相差不大,西南部、南部、东南部地区干旱的影响远大于雨涝的影响。在大豆开花-鼓粒期,旱涝与大豆产量的波动密切相关,西北部、西南部、中部、南部、东南部地区降水正常略偏多对大豆增产有利,但中度及以上雨涝仍会造成大豆减产;北部地区大豆产量波动主要受雨涝影响严重,东部地区干旱和雨涝对大豆产量波动造成的影响程度相似。     

中国南方干旱灾害风险特征及其防控对策

应用中国南方区域14省区市252个国家基本气象站1961—2015年逐日地面气象观测资料及干旱灾害资料,研究中国南方干旱灾害影响的时空变化特征,分析中国南方干旱灾害风险变化特征,提出干旱灾害风险防控策略与防御对策。结果表明:近55年中国南方区域降水量呈现波动变化,降水量线性拟合趋势特征不明显。但进入21世纪后南方区域平均降水量明显偏少,且平均降水量年际振荡幅度增大。近55年研究区气温呈显著上升趋势,南方平均地表气温升高速率高于全球地表升温速率;研究区气温从1976年开始持续上升,气温升高的突变年在1997年。重旱风险高发区主要集中于西南,随着气候变暖,干旱灾害频率、强度和受旱面积均增加,干旱灾害风险增大。气温突变后次高干旱灾害风险区明显扩大。未来10年(2016—2025年)中国南方地区的干旱发生频率可能升高。因此,要加强干旱灾害风险管理,生态环境脆弱区域实施生态环境修复,农业主产区域以保障粮食安全为主,解决水资源时空分布不均和资源供需加剧矛盾,提高干旱灾害风险防控水平。     

基于改进后相对湿润度指数的山西省气象干旱时空特征

基于山西省境内较为均匀分布的70个地面气象观测站57 a(1960-2016年)的逐日降水量、气温、日照时数、相对湿度、风速、水汽压等气象资料,选用国家标准中相对湿润度指数(M),在其基础上构建了改进的相对湿润度指数(M_(10i))作为干旱指标,以年、季为时间尺度,研究山西省干旱频率和强度的空间分布特征,并分析干旱频率和强度的年际变化规律。结果表明:改进的相对湿润度指数可很好地表征出典型干旱年;从57 a的资料来看,山西干旱程度总体呈现加重的趋势;对比各年代干旱程度,以20世纪60年代干旱最轻,80年代和90年代干旱最为严重,90年代之后又呈现逐年代减轻的趋势;山西省干旱强度呈北高南低的分布,北部大部、太原中部干旱强度最强;冬季、春季干旱强度明显高于夏季和秋季;山西省历年特旱的频率明显高于其他等级的干旱,重旱频率略高于轻旱和中旱的频率;大多数年份,山西省冬季总干旱频率最高,春季次高,秋季较低,夏季最低。     

1951—2018年中国年降水量及气象干旱的时空变异

探求降水量及干旱时空变化特征及规律是当前水文学研究的重要课题。基于中国619个气象站1951—2018年的降水量数据,采用距平百分率法和Morlet小波分析等方法,揭示年降水量及干旱的时空变异。结果表明: 研究期间,中国年降水量空间上呈东南至西北阶梯递减的特征,多年降水量变化剧烈程度反之;地势二、三阶梯分界线左右区域降水量呈下降趋势,且多于20世纪60—70年代发生突变,其余地区呈上升趋势,大多数突变发生于20世纪90年代;温带大陆和温带季风气候区降水量主周期小。20世纪60年代至21世纪10年代,中国干旱区面积减少,半干旱区面积增加,特别是近10年干旱和半干旱区面积减小,半湿润区面积增大。在30°—40° N之间发现一条干旱南北差异分界线,分界线以北干旱次数远多于以南;干旱的主体区域在年代际的转移方向为西北中部→华北南部→华北北部,发生次数及分布范围逐渐减小。     

石羊河流域气候干湿状况分析及评价

分析了河西走廊石羊河流域用水区降水的年际时空分布和演化规律,用潜在蒸散、气候干旱指数、蒸降差计算了不同流域段的水分平衡收支情况。结果表明,20世纪80~90年代降水呈增加趋势,但量较小;春、夏季降水增加,秋、冬季降水减少;潜在蒸散多年平均值为1 026.1 mm,并由上游向下游逐渐增大。20世纪70~90年代潜在蒸散呈增加趋势,平均增加4.1~43.6 mm;季节潜在蒸散大小顺序为夏>春>秋>冬,平均为403.5~521.6 mm;历年气候干旱指数平均为0.002,极值出现在下游的民勤地区,达0.581。20世纪70~90年代,气候干旱指数呈增大趋势,气候变得越来越干燥;年水分亏缺量平均为810.7 mm,表现为水分严重不足。最后,提出了合理利用水资源的建议,以科学应对气候变化,促进流域经济持续发展。     

标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析

 利用分布于我国不同气候区的7个气象台站1951～1995年的月降水资料,比较分析了标准化降水指标(Standardized precipitation index, SPI)和在我国已成熟应用的Z指数。结果表明,SPI计算简单,资料容易获取,而且计算结果与Z指数有极好的一致性。同时,由于SPI是通过概率密度函数求解累积概率,再将累积概率标准化而得,具有稳定的计算特性,消除了降水的时空分布差异,在各个区域和各个时段均能有效地反映旱涝状况,优于在我国广泛应用的Z指数。此外,SPI还可以计算不同时间尺度的指标值,能够满足不同水资源状况分析的要求。以北京为例,探讨了应用4种时间尺度的SPI值反映1951～1995年期间的旱涝事件,发现SPI能准确地反映北京45年间的旱涝趋势,对于旱涝灾害有着良好的预测作用,可用于我国的水资源评估以及不同时间尺度的干旱监测。     

近57年来黄土高原干旱特征及其与大气环流的关系

通过黄土高原地区52个气象站点1961-2017年的气象资料,利用不同尺度的标准化降水指数（Standardized Precipitation Index,SPI）和标准化降水蒸散指数（Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI）对该区57年来干旱的时空变化特征进行了分析,并利用交叉小波变换探讨了干旱指标与大气环流的遥相关分析,得到了以下结论：（1）时间变化上,黄土高原57年来不同干旱指标均呈下降趋势,整体逐渐变干旱。但SPEI6指标较SPI6指标相比,干旱年份更多,干旱特征更明显,说明SPEI的计算由于考虑了蒸散发输入因此结果偏重.不同指标均显示,1999年以来,黄土高原地区干旱时有发生,但整体有降低的趋势。（2） SPEI6和SPI6的站次比和干旱强度最高点都出现在1999年,但SPEI6的站次比和干旱强度的变化幅度更剧烈,且出现全域性干旱的年份（5年）也多于SPI6（3年）;SPEI12相较于SPI12,站次比和干旱强度较为相似,都在1966年达到顶峰,虽然出现全域性干旱的年份SPEI12（9年）多于SPI12（3年）,但SPI12的干旱强度更高。（3）平原区的汾渭平原是轻旱多发区,河套平原、宁夏平原易发生中旱,同时宁夏平原还是重旱多发区。丘陵区西部的中宁、同心两地易发生重旱,乌审旗出现特旱。山地区干旱频率普遍较高,尤其是西部山地区的乌鞘岭重旱、特旱频发。（4） SPEI指数对环流指数的变化更敏感。AMO对区域各干旱指标的影响较小,ENSO、WPI对SPI6、SPEI6有显著的响应;而PNA对6个月尺度的干旱指标（SPI6、SPEI6）影响较小,对12个月尺度的干旱指标（SPI12、SPEI12）影响较大。区域干旱是一个复杂的自然现象,为了进一步探索不同干旱指标在不同区域的运用,必要时可采用多种指标,从不同角度比较多种干旱指标的相似性,从而避免单一指标对结果的局限性。     

Differential drought responses between saplings and adult trees in four co-occurring species of New England

Tree-ring characteristics in four species were examined to address whether co-occurring mature trees of different successional status respond differently to drought, and whether saplings of these species have a greater response to drought than mature trees. We examined saplings and mature trees of paper birch, yellow birch, red maple and sugar maple, which varied in successional status (shade-tolerance) and co-occurred at Harvard Forest, Petersham, Mass., USA. Three drought events in 1964–1966, 1981 and 1995 were identified using climate data. For mature trees, there was no significant interspecific difference in relative changes in ring-width index (RWI) during the 1964–1966 and 1995 drought events. However, the interspecific difference was significant in the 1981 drought event. Response function analysis for mature trees showed that the radial growth of sugar maple was mainly controlled by spring and summer precipitation, red maple by spring and summer precipitation and temperature, yellow birch by winter and summer precipitation, and spring and summer temperature, and paper birch by spring and summer precipitation and spring temperature. Saplings of sugar maple and yellow birch, but not red maple and paper birch, showed significant positive correlations between RWI and annual total precipitation. In the 1995 drought event, saplings and mature trees of red maple and paper birch differed significantly in drought responses, but this was not true in sugar maple and yellow birch. Our results do not support a generally greater response in saplings than in mature trees, nor an early- versus late successional difference in drought responses.     

Reappraisal of drying and wetting effects on C and N mineralization and fluxes in soils

In the next decades, many soils will be subjected to increased drying/wetting cycles or modified water availability considering predicted global changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration. These changes may affect the turnover of C and N in soils, but the direction of changes is still unclear. The aim of the review is the evaluation of involved mechanisms, the intensity, duration and frequency of drying and wetting for the mineralization and fluxes of C and N in terrestrial soils. Controversial study results require a reappraisal of the present understanding that wetting of dry soils induces significant losses of soil C and N. The generally observed pulse in net C and N mineralization following wetting of dry soil (hereafter wetting pulse) is short‐lived and often exceeds the mineralization rate of a respective moist control. Accumulated microbial and plant necromass, lysis of live microbial cells, release of compatible solutes and exposure of previously protected organic matter may explain the additional mineralization during wetting of soils. Frequent drying and wetting diminishes the wetting pulse due to limitation of the accessible organic matter pool. Despite wetting pulses, cumulative C and N mineralization (defined here as total net mineralization during drying and wetting) are mostly smaller compared with soil with optimum moisture, indicating that wetting pulses cannot compensate for small mineralization rates during drought periods. Cumulative mineralization is linked to the intensity and duration of drying, the amount and distribution of precipitation, temperature, hydrophobicity and the accessible pool of organic substrates. Wetting pulses may have a significant impact on C and N mineralization or flux rates in arid and semiarid regions but have less impact in humid and subhumid regions on annual time scales. Organic matter stocks are progressively preserved with increasing duration and intensity of drought periods; however, fires enhance the risk of organic matter losses under dry conditions. Hydrophobicity of organic surfaces is an important mechanism that reduces C and N mineralization in topsoils after precipitation. Hence, mineralization in forest soils with hydrophobic organic horizons is presumably stronger limited than in grassland or farmland soils. Even in humid regions, suboptimal water potentials often restrict microbial activity in topsoils during growing seasons. Increasing summer droughts will likely reduce the mineralization and fluxes of C and N whereas increasing summer precipitation could enhance the losses of C and N from soils.     

Unexpected patterns of sensitivity to drought in three semi-arid grasslands

Global climate models forecast an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including severe droughts. Based on multi-year relationships between precipitation amount and aboveground annual net primary production (ANPP), semi-arid grasslands are projected to be among the most sensitive ecosystems to changes in precipitation. To assess sensitivity to drought, as well as variability within the shortgrass steppe biome, we imposed moderate and severe rainfall reductions for two growing seasons in three undisturbed grasslands that varied in soil type and climate. We predicted strong drought-induced reductions in ANPP at all sites and greater sensitivity to drought in sites with lower average precipitation, consistent with continental-scale patterns. Identical experimental infrastructure at each site reduced growing season rainfall events by 50 or 80%, and significantly reduced average soil moisture in both years (by 21 and 46% of control levels, respectively). Despite reductions in soil moisture, ANPP responses varied unexpectedly-from no reduction in ANPP to a 51% decrease. Although sensitivity to drought was highest in the semi-arid grassland with lowest mean annual precipitation, patterns in responses to drought across these grasslands were also strongly related to rainfall event size. When growing season rainfall patterns were dominated by many smaller events, ANPP was significantly reduced by drought but not when rainfall patterns were characterized by large rain events. This interaction between drought sensitivity and rainfall event size suggests that ANPP responses to future droughts may be reduced if growing season rainfall regimes also become more extreme.     

Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought‐induced forest dieback

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large‐scale forest mortality events will have far‐reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die‐off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long‐lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self‐thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole‐tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large‐scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales.     

基于SPEI指数的1961-2014年东北地区气象干旱时空特征研究

干旱导致生态系统生产力降低,已成为全球观测的事实,并将在未来气候情景下继续加剧。揭示干旱的时空分布特征是抗旱防灾、保障农业生产安全、维持生态系统健康的迫切要求。应用标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）和经验正交函数（EOF）分解方法,分析东北地区干旱特征,揭示干旱发生的时空变化规律。基于东北地区90个气象台站,计算1961-2014年的SPEI指数,从干旱频率、干旱范围和干旱强度等方面研究其特征,并利用EOF分解方法解构干旱空间模态和时间系数。研究结果表明：1）东北地区干旱的时间差异明显。1961-2014年,东北地区以1983年、1995年和2008年为转折点经历了"干-湿-干-湿"的波动变化;夏季发生的干旱范围最大、强度最强,冬季的范围最小、强度最弱;2）东北地区干旱的空间分布差异大,西部干旱发生频繁、发生次数多、持续时间长、旱灾强度大;3）在1、3、6和12个月的多时间尺度下,东北地区年均SPEI变量场EOF分解的前3个主要空间模态均表现为全区一致型、南北相反型和东西相反型,其方差累积贡献率约为58%;4）随着研究时间尺度的增大,干旱的空间分布规律和时间变化趋势逐渐明晰,表明东北地区干旱具有明显的尺度特征。综上所述,基于SPEI指数对东北地区干旱进行多尺度时空分解,刻画了干旱的基本特征,并解构了干旱的时空分异规律,研究结果可为该区的干旱预警研究及生态系统灾害管理提供科学依据。