自然植被净第一性生产力模型初探

本文根据植物的生理生态学特点及联系能量平衡方程和水量平衡方程的区域蒸散模式建立了联系植物生理生态学特点和水热平衡关系的植物的净第一性生产力模型：该模型的建立为宏观地确定地带性景观的生产潜力、植物净第一性生产力的区域分布和全球分布,以及全球变化的影响提供了理论基础,对于合理地利用气候资源,扬长避短,充分发挥气候生产潜力,最大限度地提高植物的产量具有重要的意义。     

基于CASA模型的内蒙古典型草原植被净初级生产力动态模拟

 植被净初级生产力及其对气候变化的响应研究是全球变化的核心内容之一。在利用内蒙古典型草原连续13年的地上生物量资料对基于遥感信息的生态系统碳循环过程CASA(Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach)模型验证的基础上, 分析了内蒙古典型草原1982~2002年植被净初级生产力(Net primary productivity, NPP)的时间变异及其影响因子。结果表明: 1) 1982~2002年21年间内蒙古典型草原的平均年NPP为290.23 g C·m^–2·a^–1, 变化范围为 145.80~502.84 g C·m^–2·a^–1; 2)内蒙古典型草原NPP呈增加趋势, 但没有达到显著性水平, 其中1982~1999年的18年间NPP呈现非常显著的增加趋势(p<0.01), NPP增加的直接原因是由于生长旺季生长本身增强所致; 3)内蒙古典型草原NPP与年降水量呈极显著的相关关系, 年降水量显著影响NPP的变异, 而NPP与年均温无显著相关关系。     

陆地植被净初级生产力计算模型研究进展

植被净初级生产力(NPP)研究是全球变化与陆地生态系统的核心内容之一。在回顾NPP模型研究的基础上,综合分析了气候模型、生态生理过程模型、光能利用率模型各自的优缺点,并对NPP模型研究做出展望。生态生理过程模型是当前陆地NPP估算研究的主要手段,而区域尺度转换则是它所面临的关键问题。近年来光能利用率模型已成为NPP估算的一种全新手段,它利用遥感所获得的全覆盖数据,使区域及全球尺度的NPP估算成为可能,但其生态学机理还有待于进一步研究。已有研究表明,“生态一遥感耦合模型”将是陆地NPP估算的主要发展方向,它融合了生态生理过程模型和光能利用率模型的优点,增强了NPP模型估算的可靠性和可操作性。     

Contrasting Climatic Controls on the Estimated Productivity of Global Terrestrial Biomes

Net primary productivity (NPP) represents the greatest annual carbon flux from the atmosphere to the biosphere, is an important component of seasonal fluctuations in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and is the most critical biotic component of the global carbon cycle. NPP measures products of major economic and social importance, such as crop yield and forest production. Given that global NPP can not be measured directly, model simulations must provide understanding of its global spatial and temporal dynamics. In this study, we used the biogeochemical model BIOME-BGC to simulate global terrestrial NPP and assessed relative importance of climatic controls (temperature, water availability, and radiation) in limiting NPP in the array of climatic combinations found globally. The degree of limitation on NPP by climatic controls was defined by using an empirical membership function. Results showed that temperature or water availability limited NPP over larger land areas (31% and 52%, respectively) than did radiation limitation (5%). Climatic controls appeared to be important in limiting productivity in most vegetation biomes, except for evergreen broadleaf forests. Nevertheless, there were areas of the globe (12%) where none of the climatic factors appeared to limit NPP. Our research has suggested that other environmental controls, such as nutrient availability or biological constraints, should then be considered. The wide distribution of NPP between zero and the upper boundary values in the correlation plots indicated that multivariate environmental balances, not single limiting factors, controlled biospheric productivity. Received 27 August 1997; accepted 19 November 1997.     

Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model

The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) combines process‐based, large‐scale representations of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and land‐atmosphere carbon and water exchanges in a modular framework. Features include feedback through canopy conductance between photosynthesis and transpiration and interactive coupling between these ‘fast’ processes and other ecosystem processes including resource competition, tissue turnover, population dynamics, soil organic matter and litter dynamics and fire disturbance. Ten plants functional types (PFTs) are differentiated by physiological, morphological, phenological, bioclimatic and fire‐response attributes. Resource competition and differential responses to fire between PFTs influence their relative fractional cover from year to year. Photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and soil water dynamics are modelled on a daily time step, while vegetation structure and PFT population densities are updated annually. Simulations have been made over the industrial period both for specific sites where field measurements were available for model evaluation, and globally on a 0.5°° × 0.5°° grid. Modelled vegetation patterns are consistent with observations, including remotely sensed vegetation structure and phenology. Seasonal cycles of net ecosystem exchange and soil moisture compare well with local measurements. Global carbon exchange fields used as input to an atmospheric tracer transport model (TM2) provided a good fit to observed seasonal cycles of CO₂ concentration at all latitudes. Simulated inter‐annual variability of the global terrestrial carbon balance is in phase with and comparable in amplitude to observed variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂. Global terrestrial carbon and water cycle parameters (pool sizes and fluxes) lie within their accepted ranges. The model is being used to study past, present and future terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, biochemical and biophysical interactions between ecosystems and the atmosphere, and as a component of coupled Earth system models.     

Sources of Variability in Net Primary Production Predictions at a Regional Scale: A Comparison Using PnET-II and TEM 4.0 in Northeastern US Forests

Because model predictions at continental and global scales are necessarily based on broad characterizations of vegetation, soils, and climate, estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes made by global terrestrial biosphere models may not be accurate for every region. At the regional scale, we suggest that attention can be focused more clearly on understanding the relative strengths of predicted net primary productivity (NPP) limitation by energy, water, and nutrients. We evaluate the sources of variability among model predictions of NPP with a regional-scale comparison between estimates made by PnET-II (a forest ecosystem process model previously applied to the northeastern region) and TEM 4.0 (a terrestrial biosphere model typically applied to the globe) for the northeastern US. When the same climate, vegetation, and soil data sets were used to drive both models, regional average NPP predictions made by PnET-II and TEM were remarkably similar, and at the biome level, model predictions agreed fairly well with NPP estimates developed from field measurements. However, TEM 4.0 predictions were more sensitive to regional variations in temperature as a result of feedbacks between temperature and belowground N availability. In PnET-II, the direct link between transpiration and photosynthesis caused substantial water stress in hardwood and pine forest types with increases in solar radiation; predicted water stress was relieved substantially when soil water holding capacity (WHC) was increased. Increasing soil WHC had little effect on TEM 4.0 predictions because soil water storage was already sufficient to meet plant demand with baseline WHC values, and because predicted N availability under baseline conditions in this region was not limited by water. Because NPP predictions were closely keyed to forest cover type, the relative coverage of low- versus high-productivity forests at both fine and coarse resolutions was an important determinant of regional NPP predictions. Therefore, changes in grid cell size and differences in the methods used to aggregate from fine to coarse resolution were important to NPP predictions insofar as they changed the relative proportions of forest cover. We suggest that because the small patches of high-elevation spruce-fir forest in this region are substantially less productive than forests in the remainder of the region, more accurate NPP predictions will result if models applied to this region use land cover input data sets that retain as much fine-resolution forest type variability as possible. The differences among model responses to variations in climate and soil WHC data sets suggest that the models will respond quite differently to scenarios of future climate. A better understanding of the dynamic interactions between water stress, N availability, and forest productivity in this region will enable models to make more accurate predictions of future carbon stocks and fluxes. Received 19 June 1998; accepted 25 June 1999.     

中国陆地生态系统对全球变化的敏感性研究

根据自然植被净第一性生产力综合模型和农业净第一性生产力模型计算了我国自然植被及农作物的净第一性生产力,结果表明:在所有可能的气候条件下,我国陆地生态系统的生产力表现出由东南向西北递减的趋势及明显的条带状分布,并在新疆地区形成明显的低值区。在年平均气温升高2℃且降水不变的情况下,湿润地区生产力增加幅度最大,约增加1～2tDW·hm~(-2)·a~(-1);在年平均气温升高2℃、年降水增加20％的情况下,干旱、半干旱地区生产力增加幅度最大,约增加0.5～3.0tDW·hm~(-2)·a~(-1);在年平均气温升高2℃、年降水减少20％的情况下,湿润地区生产力提高约0.5～1.0tDW·hm~(-2)·a~(-1),干旱、半干旱地区生产力降低约0.5～2.0tDW·hm~(-2)·a~(-1)。     

Direct and indirect effects of area,energy and habitat heterogeneity on breeding bird communities

Aim To compare the ability of island biogeography theory, niche theory and species–energy theory to explain patterns of species richness and density for breeding bird communities across islands with contrasting characteristics. Location Thirty forested islands in two freshwater lakes in the boreal forest zone of northern Sweden (65°55′ N to 66°09′ N; 17°43′ E to 17°55′ E). Methods We performed bird censuses on 30 lake islands that have each previously been well characterized in terms of size, isolation, habitat heterogeneity (plant diversity and forest age), net primary productivity (NPP), and invertebrate prey abundance. To test the relative abilities of island biogeography theory, niche theory and species–energy theory to describe bird community patterns, we used both traditional statistical approaches (linear and multiple regressions) and structural equation modelling (SEM; in which both direct and indirect influences can be quantified). Results Using regression‐based approaches, area and bird abundance were the two most important predictors of bird species richness. However, when the data were analysed by SEM, area was not found to exert a direct effect on bird species richness. Instead, terrestrial prey abundance was the strongest predictor of bird abundance, and bird abundance in combination with NPP was the best predictor of bird species richness. Area was only of indirect importance through its positive effect on terrestrial prey abundance, but habitat heterogeneity and spatial subsidies (emerging aquatic insects) also showed important indirect influences. Thus, our results provided the strongest support for species–energy theory. Main conclusions Our results suggest that, by using statistical approaches that allow for analyses of both direct and indirect influences, a seemingly direct influence of area on species richness can be explained by greater energy availability on larger islands. As such, animal community patterns that seem to be in line with island biogeography theory may be primarily driven by energy availability. Our results also point to the need to consider several aspects of habitat quality (e.g. heterogeneity, NPP, prey availability and spatial subsidies) for successful management of breeding bird diversity at local spatial scales and in fragmented or insular habitats.     

Global pattern of NPP to GPP ratio derived from MODIS data: effects of ecosystem type, geographical location and climate

Aim To examine the global pattern of the net primary production (NPP)/gross primary production (GPP) ratio of the Earth's land area along geographical and climatic gradients. Location The global planetary ecosystem. Methods The 4‐year average annual NPP/GPP ratio of the Earth's land area was calculated using 2000–03 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The global pattern of the NPP/GPP ratio was investigated by comparing it among each typical terrestrial ecosystem and plotting it along a geographical and climatic gradient, including latitude, altitude, temperature and precipitation. Results The global terrestrial ecosystem had an average NPP/GPP ratio value of 0.52 with minor variation from 2000 to 2003. However, the NPP/GPP ratio showed considerable spatial variation associated with ecosystem type, geographical location and climate. Densely vegetated ecosystems had a lower NPP/GPP ratio than sparsely vegetated ecosystems. Forest ecosystems had a lower NPP/GPP ratio than shrub and herbaceous ecosystems. Geographically, the NPP/GPP ratio increased with altitude. In the Southern Hemisphere, the NPP/GPP ratio decreased along latitude from 30° to 10° and it exhibited high fluctuation in the Northern Hemisphere. Climatically, the NPP/GPP ratio exhibited a decreasing trend along enhanced precipitation when it was less than 2300 mm year^?1 and a static trend when the annual precipitation was over 2300 mm. The NPP/GPP ratio showed a decreasing trend along temperature when it was between –20 °C and 10 °C, and showed an increasing trend along rising temperature when it was between –10 °C and 20 °C. Within each ecosystem, the NPP/GPP ratio revealed a similar trend to the global trend along temperature and precipitation. Conclusions The NPP/GPP ratio exhibited a pattern depending on the main climatic characteristics such as temperature and precipitation and geographical factors such as latitude and altitude. The findings of this research challenge the widely held assumption that the NPP/GPP ratio is consistent regardless of ecosystem type.     

The global relationship between climate,net primary production and the diet of spiders

Aim We compiled data on prey utilization of spiders at a global scale to better understand the relationship between current climate or net primary production (NPP) and diet breadth, evenness and composition in spiders. We test whether the productivity and the diversity–climatic‐stability (DCS) hypotheses focusing on diversity patterns may also explain global patterns in prey utilization by web‐building and cursorial spiders. Location A global dataset of 95 data points from semi‐natural and natural terrestrial habitats spanning 41.3° S to 56.1° N. Methods We collected data on spider prey (29 groups, mostly order‐level invertebrate taxa) through extensive literature research to identify the relationship between climatic conditions and NPP and spider diets based on 66 studies of prey composition in 82 spider species. Results The number of prey groups in spider diets was positively related to NPP, after accounting for differences in sampling effort in the original studies. In general, diet breadth was significantly higher for spider species in tropical environments. Prey individuals in spider diets were more evenly distributed among different prey groups in warmer environments with lower fluctuations in precipitation. Collembola and other spiders were more common prey for spiders with a cursorial hunting mode. Myriapoda and Collembola were more common prey in cooler climates with more stable precipitation, whereas Isoptera, Lepidoptera, Psocoptera and Coleoptera showed the opposite pattern. Main conclusions The positive relationship between diet breadth and NPP and the negative relationship between prey evenness and seasonality in precipitation support the productivity and the DCS hypotheses, respectively. This effect on global patterns of invertebrate predator–prey interactions suggests that trophic interactions between spiders and their prey are sensitive to climatic conditions. Climatic conditions may not only affect spider community composition, but also considerably alter the functional role of these abundant invertebrate predators in terrestrial ecosystems.     

Terrestrial net primary production estimates for 0.5° grid cells from field observations—a contribution to global biogeochemical modeling

Net Primary Production (NPP) is an important component of the carbon cycle and, among the pools and fluxes that make up the cycle, it is one of the steps that are most accessible to field measurement. While easier than some other steps to measure, direct measurement of NPP is tedious and not practical for large areas and so models are generally used to study the carbon cycle at a global scale. Nevertheless these models require field measurements of NPP for parameterization, calibration and validation. Most NPP data are for relatively small field plots that cannot represent the 0.5° × 0.5° grid cells that are commonly used in global scale models. Furthermore, technical difficulties generally restrict NPP measurements to aboveground parts and sometimes do not even include all components of aboveground NPP. Thus direct inter‐comparison between field data obtained in different studies or comparison of these results with coarse resolution model outputs can be misleading. We summarize and present a series of methods that were used by original authors to estimate NPP and how and what we have done to prepare a consistent data set of NPP for 0.5 °grid cells for a range of biomes from these studies. The methods used for estimation of NPP include: (i) aggregation of fine‐scale (plot or stand‐level) vegetation inventory data to larger grid cells, (ii) mapping of grid cells and area weighting of field NPP observations in each mapped class, (iii) direct correlation of extensive data sets of ground measurements with remotely sensed spectral vegetation indices, (iv) local modeling of NPP using key independent variables, for which maps are available at the scale of the grid cell, and (v) regression analysis to link productivity with controlling environmental variables. For a few grid cells whose NPP were obtained for multiple years, temporal analysis was conducted. The grid cells are grouped to the biome level and are compared with existing compilations of field NPP and the results of the Miami potential NPP model. Mean NPP was similar to the well‐known compilation of Whittaker and Likens, except for temperate evergreen needle‐leaved forest, woodland, and shrubland. The grid cell datasets are a contribution to the International Geosphere‐Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Data and Information System (DIS) Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI). The full dataset currently contains 3654 cells (including replicate measurements) developed from 15 studies representing NPP in croplands, sparse vegetation, shrub lands, grasslands, and forests worldwide. An edited subset consists of 2335 cells in which outliers were removed and all replicate measurements were averaged for each unique geographical location. Most of the data incorporated into GPPDI were wholly or partly developed by participants in the GPPDI, in addition to the present authors. These studies are gathered together here to provide a consistent account of the grid cell component of GPPDI and an analysis of the entire data set. The datasets have been deposited in an IGBP‐DIS GPPDI database ( http://daacl.esd.ornl.gov/npq/GPPDI/Combined_GPPDI_des.html ).     

Toward an allocation scheme for global terrestrial carbon models

The distribution of assimilated carbon among the plant parts has a profound effect on plant growth, and at a larger scale, on terrestrial biogeochemistry. Although important progress has been made in modelling photosynthesis, less effort has been spent on understanding the carbon allocation, especially at large spatial scales. Whereas several individual-level models of plant growth include an allocation scheme, most global terrestrial models still assume constant allocation of net primary production (NPP) among plant parts, without any environmental coupling. Here, we use the CASA biosphere model as a platform for exploring a new global allocation scheme that estimates allocation of photosynthesis products among leaves, stems, and roots depending on resource availability. The philosophy underlying the model is that allocation patterns result from evolved responses that adjust carbon investments to facilitate capture of the most limiting resources, i.e. light, water, and mineral nitrogen. In addition, we allow allocation of NPP to vary in response to changes in atmospheric CO₂. The relative magnitudes of changes in NPP and resource-use efficiency control the response of root:shoot allocation. For ambient CO₂, the model produces realistic changes in above-ground allocation along productivity gradients. In comparison to the CASA standard estimate using fixed allocation ratios, the new allocation scheme tends to favour root allocation, leading to a 10% lower global biomass. Elevated CO₂, which alters the balance between growth and available resources, generally leads to reduced water stress and consequently, decreased root:shoot ratio. The major exception is forest ecosystems, where increased nitrogen stress induces a larger root allocation.     

Modelling the NET Primary Productivity of the Natural Potential Vegetation in China

The relationship between net primary productivity (NPP) of natural potential vegetation in China and its climate control has been studied. First, site water balance indices are calculated by means of climate station document interpolation. NPP field document is strongly correlated with actual evapotranspiration in growth period, annual actual evapotranspiration, annual potential evapotranspiration and water deficiency indices. Then according to the mechanism of NPP accumulation, a WBINPP model is developed basing on a collection of NPP field document all over the country and site water balance indices interaction: NPP = 2.55 GAE·e - 4.20922-1. 9665. Al. Comparing with other NPP models, such as Miami, Thomthwaite Memorial and Chikugo, WBINPP model is more rational and strongly fit to field doccment, the correlation coefficient is 0. 845. According to WBINPP model, a spatial pattern analysis for NPP in China is conducted by means of a GIS software, EIS, and the result shows NPP is declined from Southeastern China to Northwestern China. NPP of the greatest value is above 22 t·hm-2. a-1 in the region located in Hainan and Taiwan Province; while with different values of 12 ~ 16, 8 ~ 12, 4 - 8 t·hm-2·a-1 in the region of middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, the Northern China plain and the Northeastern Region in China, respectively. In the Northern steppe zone NPP is about 2 t·hm- 2·a- 1 and in the dry desert zone is lower than 2 t·hm- 2·a-1.     

Links between Terrestrial Primary Production and Bacterial Production and Respiration in Lakes in a Climate Gradient in Subarctic Sweden

We compared terrestrial net primary production (NPP) and terrestrial export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) with lake water heterotrophic bacterial activity in 12 headwater lake catchments along an altitude gradient in subarctic Sweden. Modelled NPP declined strongly with altitude and annual air temperature decreases along the altitude gradient (6°C between the warmest and the coldest catchment). Estimated terrestrial DOC export to the lakes was closely correlated to NPP. Heterotrophic bacterial production (BP) and respiration (BR) were mainly based on terrestrial organic carbon and strongly correlated with the terrestrial DOC export. Excess respiration over PP of the pelagic system was similar to net emission of CO₂ in the lakes. BR and CO₂ emission made up considerably higher shares of the terrestrial DOC input in warm lakes than in cold lakes, implying that respiration and the degree of net heterotrophy in the lakes were dependant not only on terrestrial export of DOC, but also on characteristics in the lakes which changed along the gradient and affected the bacterial metabolization of allochthonous DOC. The study showed close links between terrestrial primary production, terrestrial DOC export and bacterial activity in lakes and how these relationships were dependant on air temperature. Increases in air temperature in high latitude unproductive systems might have considerable consequences for lake water productivity and release of CO₂ to the atmosphere, which are ultimately determined by terrestrial primary production.     

Measurements of gross and net ecosystem productivity and water vapour exchange of a Pinus ponderosa ecosystem,and an evaluation of two generalized models

Net ecosystem productivity (NEP), net primary productivity (NPP), and water vapour exchange of a mature Pinus ponderosa forest (44°30′ N, 121°37′ W) growing in a region subject to summer drought were investigated along with canopy assimilation and respiratory fluxes. This paper describes seasonal and annual variation in these factors, and the evaluation of two generalized models of carbon and water balance (PnET‐II and 3‐PG) with a combination of traditional measurements of NPP, respiration and water stress, and eddy covariance measurements of above‐and below‐canopy CO₂ and water vapour exchange. The objective was to evaluate the models using two years of traditional and eddy covariance measurements, and to use the models to help interpret the relative importance of processes controlling carbon and water vapour exchange in a water‐limited pine ecosystem throughout the year. PnET‐II is a monthly time‐step model that is driven by nitrogen availability through foliar N concentration, and 3‐PG is a monthly time‐step quantum‐efficiency model constrained by extreme temperatures, drought, and vapour pressure deficits. Both models require few parameters and have the potential to be applied at the watershed to regional scale. There was 2/3 less rainfall in 1997 than in 1996, providing a challenge to modelling the water balance, and consequently the carbon balance, when driving the models with the two years of climate data, sequentially. Soil fertility was not a key factor in modelling processes at this site because other environmental factors limited photosynthesis and restricted projected leaf area index to ～1.6. Seasonally, GEP and LE were overestimated in early summer and underestimated through the rest of the year. The model predictions of annual GEP, NEP and water vapour exchange were within 1–39% of flux measurements, with greater disparity in 1997 because soil water never fully recharged. The results suggest that generalized models can provide insights to constraints on productivity on an annual basis, using a minimum of site data.     

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends

The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process‐based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux‐tower‐based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO₂ trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO₂ sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free‐Air CO₂ Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein et al. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 ± 15 Pg C yr^?1) than JU11 (118 ± 6 Pg C yr^?1). In response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5–20%) per 100 ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO₂ than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100 ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 ± 0.8 Pg C yr^?1 is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 ± 1.2 Pg C yr^?1). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980–2009. Both model‐to‐model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is ?3.0 ± 1.5 Pg C yr^?1 °C^?1, within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (?3.9 ± 1.1 Pg C yr^?1 °C^?1). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO₂ and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation‐based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon–nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models.     

Are old forests underestimated as global carbon sinks?

Old forests are important carbon pools, but are thought to be insignificant as current atmospheric carbon sinks. This perception is based on the assumption that changes in productivity with age in complex, multiaged, multispecies natural forests can be modelled simply as scaled‐up versions of individual trees or even‐aged stands. This assumption was tested by measuring the net primary productivity (NPP) of natural subalpine forests in the Northern Rocky Mountains, where NPP is from 50% to 100% higher than predicted by a model of an even‐age forest composed of a single species. If process‐based terrestrial carbon models underestimate NPP by 50% in just one quarter of the temperate coniferous forests throughout the world, then global NPP is being underestimated by 145 Tg of carbon annually. This is equivalent to 4.3–7.6% of the missing atmospheric carbon sink. These results emphasize the need to account for multiple‐aged, species‐diverse, mature forests in models of terrestrial carbon dynamics to approximate the global carbon budget.     

Comparing global models of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP): analysis of the seasonal atmospheric CO2 signal

Eight terrestrial biospheric models (TBMs) calculating the monthly distributions of both net primary productivity (NPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (R_H) in the Potsdam NPP Model Intercomparison workshop are used to simulate seasonal patterns of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. For each model, we used net ecosystem productivity (NEP = NPP – R_H) as the source function in the TM2 atmospheric transport model from the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology. Comparing the simulated concentration fields with detrended measurements from 25 monitoring stations spread over the world, we found that the decreasing seasonal amplitude from north to south is rather well reproduced by all the models, though the amplitudes are slightly too low in the north. The agreement between the simulated and observed seasonality is good in the northern hemisphere, but poor in the southern hemisphere, even when the ocean is accounted for. Based on a Fourier analysis of the calculated zonal atmospheric signals, tropical NEP plays a key role in the seasonal cycle of the atmospheric CO₂ in the whole southern hemisphere. The relatively poor match between measured and predicted atmospheric CO₂ in this hemisphere suggests problems with all the models. The simulation of water relations, a dominant regulator of NEP in the tropics, is a leading candidate for the source of these problems.     

Modelling the recent historical impacts of atmospheric CO2 and climate change on Mediterranean vegetation

During the past century, annual mean temperature has increased by 0.75°C and precipitation has shown marked variation throughout the Mediterranean basin. These historical climate changes may have had significant, but presently undefined, impacts on the productivity and structure of sclerophyllous shrubland, an important vegetation type in the region. We used a vegetation model for this functional type to examine climate change impacts, and their interaction with the concurrent historical rise in atmospheric CO₂. Using only climate and soil texture as data inputs, model predictions showed good agreement with observations of seasonal and regional variation in leaf and canopy physiology, net primary productivity (NPP), leaf area index (LAI) and soil water. Model simulations for shrubland sites indicated that potential NPP has risen by 25% and LAI by 7% during the past century, although the absolute increase in LAI was small. Sensitivity analysis suggested that the increase in atmospheric CO₂ since 1900 was the primary cause of these changes, and that simulated climate change alone had negative impacts on both NPP and LAI. Effects of rising CO₂ were mediated by significant increases in the efficiency of water‐use in NPP throughout the region, as a consequence of the direct effect of CO₂ on leaf gas exchange. This increase in efficiency compensated for limitation of NPP by drought, except in areas where drought was most severe. However, while water was used more efficiently, total canopy water loss rose slightly or remained unaffected in model simulations, because increases in LAI with CO₂ counteracted the effects of reduced stomatal conductance on transpiration. Model simulations for the Mediterranean region indicate that the recent rise in atmospheric CO₂ may already have had significant impacts on productivity, structure and water relations of sclerophyllous shrub vegetation, which tended to offset the detrimental effects of climate change in the region.