珊瑚礁生态脆弱性评价--以泰国思仓岛为例

珊瑚礁生态系统受到环境变化、人类活动等各种因素的严重威胁,保护珊瑚礁生态系统是目前全球海洋生态保护的热点,对珊瑚礁开展定量的生态脆弱性评估能够为保护管理对策的制定提供重要科学依据。本研究选取泰国思仓岛作为研究区域,结合空间分析技术建立了具有通用性的珊瑚礁生态脆弱性评估方法。基于ESA模型构建了珊瑚礁生态脆弱性综合指数和评价指标体系,系统分析了思仓岛珊瑚礁脆弱性的来源、构成,并直观展现了脆弱性的区域空间分布。结果表明:思仓岛研究区东北侧的珊瑚礁生态脆弱性大于西南侧,当地珊瑚礁的关键影响因子分别为驳船排污、港口码头、水体透明度等。根据脆弱性评价的结果,提出了当地珊瑚礁保护与修复的空间分区管理对策。本研究为印度-太平洋区系珊瑚礁生态脆弱性评价提供了可行的示例,也为中国的珊瑚礁可持续管理研究提供了借鉴和参照。     

热带旅游海岛珊瑚礁生态脆弱性评价——以马来西亚热浪岛和停泊岛为例

珊瑚礁生态系统提供了重要的经济和生态效益,但人类活动和气候变化已威胁到脆弱的珊瑚礁生态系统。本研究选取马来西亚的热门旅游海岛——热浪岛和停泊岛作为研究区域,基于暴露性-敏感性-适应性模型框架,结合调查数据和人类活动兴趣点空间分析方法建立珊瑚礁生态脆弱性评价指标体系,评估研究区珊瑚礁的生态脆弱程度,并提出管控对策。结果表明：研究区珊瑚礁生态脆弱性指数为-0.30～0.66,热浪岛周边站位生态脆弱性指数平均值为0.08,停泊岛周边站位生态脆弱性指数平均值为0.26,停泊岛区域的珊瑚礁脆弱性整体高于热浪岛,高度脆弱地点主要聚集在大小停泊岛的南部,而轻度脆弱地点位于停泊岛西北和热浪岛东部。冗余分析结果表明,影响珊瑚礁生态脆弱性的主要环境因子为盐度、浊度,主要人类活动因子为度假村和客运码头。控制娱乐设施与珊瑚礁区的距离、对海洋公园进行功能区划分等措施可能对降低当地珊瑚礁脆弱性具有积极意义,可作为当地珊瑚礁保护管理的备选对策。     

晋北典型矿农城复合区生态系统服务价值权衡与协同

受到人类剧烈活动的影响,矿农城复合区的土地利用类型在短时间内转换频繁,进而对生态系统服务价值的变化产生显著影响,严重威胁区域生态系统的稳定性和可持续发展。分析和预测矿农城复合区生态系统服务价值（Ecosystem Service Value,ESV）时空演变特征、权衡与协同关系,对协调区域生态功能和人类需求具有重要意义。以晋北典型矿农城复合区为例,基于未来土地利用模拟（Future Land Use Simulation,FLUS）和价值当量表估算法,分析并预测了1990-2026年土地利用类型及ESV变化,同时结合相关性指数分析2026年不同情景下生态系统服务间的权衡与协同关系。结果表明：（1）2018-2026年研究区土地利用格局变化显著,主要表现在农用地、损毁地以及其他地类的相互转换上。在不同的发展情景下,2026年研究区的ESV存在较大的差异。自然、经济及生态发展情景的ESV总量依次为1.87亿元,1.69亿元和2.01亿元。（2）1990-2018年间,矿区土地复垦为研究区带来ESV增量1.95亿元。其中,第一阶段和第二阶段带来的ESV增量分别为1.86亿元和0.09亿元。相较于第一阶段,土地复垦第二阶段虽然数量少,但占比不断增加,有较大的发展潜力。另外,草地转林地和耕地转林地是第二阶段ESV增量的主要来源,其增值分别为430.03万元和404.61万元。（3）各项生态系统服务协同关系明显,受到人类扰动较少的西南区域和人类扰动剧烈的矿区均表现为协同关系,仅有少数地区表现为权衡关系,且调节-文化服务的权衡关系较为明显。本文可为矿农城复合区的生态系统服务管理提供一定的支撑。     

长江源区生态系统完整性测量与评价

生态系统完整性概念正在逐步成为公共环境政策和决策的基础,许多区域生态系统管理的规划和政策都将生态系统完整性作为目标和原则.本文建立了长江源区多尺度生态系统框架,依照生态系统完整性的定义,发展了长江源区生态系统完整性评价的指标体系,对源区进行了生态系统完整性的测量和评价.根据完整性的评价结果,将长江源区划分为生态良好区、生态脆弱区和优先生态恢复区.     

粤港澳大湾区海岸带生态系统保护和修复策略

粤港澳大湾区是我国海岸带高强度开发区域,面临着生态环境质量不高、生态系统受损严重的压力,开展海岸带生态系统保护修复是绿色湾区发展的必然需求。在分析大湾区海岸带基底、生态环境现状及问题的基础上,提出大湾区海岸带生态系统保护修复规划的策略,从以下5个方面构筑粤港澳大湾区海岸带生态系统保护修复规划的体系：一是从陆海污染统筹治理来恢复海域生物生存环境;二是从自然岸线保护、自然保护地体系重构与规范化建设、珍稀濒危物种栖息地保护来加强海岸带生态的保护;三是通过岸线生态修复、典型滨海湿地生态系统（红树林、珊瑚礁、海草床）修复、受损海岛生态修复来构筑生态安全屏障;四是从海堤生态化改造与建设、沿海防护林体系建设和海岸带综合防护工程建设来促进生态减灾协同增效;五是打造智慧海岸带管理服务平台来保障海洋命运共同体健康发展。本研究提出大湾区海岸带生态保护修复策略,期望为大湾区生态建设和环境保护提供参考。     

厦门海湾型城市发展累积生态效应动态评价

港湾地区的快速城市化使港湾湿地生态系统及其生产功能和服务功能发生急剧改变并在时间和空间上产生累积效应。以具有典型意义的厦门港湾湿地为研究对象，采用系统动力学方法，定性分析系统因子因果反馈关系，筛选港湾湿地水动力环境、水质环境、生物生态环境、地形地貌、景观环境作为厦门海湾型城市发展的累积生态效应指示因子。通过调整模型的相关政策变量及组合，仿真模拟了不同发展策略下厦门港湾湿地的累积生态效应，并结合灰色评估模型对累积生态效应进行量化，得出不同发展策略的累积生态效应指数，并对模型进行了模型验证与敏感性分析。设计三大未来发展情景，即基准情景（BS）、发展规划情景（S1）、生态城市发展情景（S2）。模型模拟结果表明：基准情景下2020年厦门城市发展对港湾湿地的累积生态效应指数为0.61;发展规划情景下对港湾湿地的累积生态效应指数为0.37;生态城市发展情景下对港湾湿地的累积生态效应指数为0.30，相对基准情景下可减少累积生态效应50%，建议厦门市按照海湾型生态城市模式进行发展。     

基于生态系统服务的山西黄河流域保护优先区识别

山西黄河流域当前面临生态环境快速退化问题,从生态系统服务视角进行保护优先区识别是自然保护和可持续发展的关键步骤。为给研究区生态平衡的维护及生态保护规划和决策提供信息来源和理论依据,基于2010-2020年多源数据,通过GIS空间分析和InVEST （Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade offs）模型等方法模拟主要生态系统服务（生境质量、土壤保持、防风固沙、产水、碳固定、粮食供给）时空格局并采用热点分析和OWA （Ordered Weighted Averaged）多属性决策方法构建保护情景,评估保护效率筛选出最佳保护优先区。结果表明：（1）2010-2020年,土壤保持、防风固沙、产水、碳固定和粮食供给服务整体呈现出上升趋势,仅生境质量小幅度下降。空间上,研究区西部和东南部生境质量、土壤保持、产水和碳固定服务突出,防风固沙服务分布较破碎,中部及西南部平原地区粮食供给服务显著。（2）保护情景中,单项生态系统服务保护优先区主要位于三川河流域、昕水河流域和沁河流域,由单一服务主导呈现空间异质性。综合生态系统服务构建了11种保护优先区情景,受生态系统服务耦合机制影响,整体呈现西北连片东南破碎的空间态势。（3）综合考虑风险、权衡及保护效率,情景8为最佳保护优先区,保护面积1.85万km²,能高效保护多项生态系统服务,对生境质量、土壤保持、防风固沙、产水、碳固定和粮食供给服务保护效率分别为1.45、1.38、1.04、1.31、1.16和0.98。本文研究结果可为山西黄河流域生态保护工作和可持续发展提供决策支持。     

典型山区生态系统服务对居民福祉影响的空间差异及动态特征——以川西山区为例

明确山区生态系统服务对居民福祉的局域空间影响是开展生态系统可持续管理决策的重要基础，对助推山区人地协调发展具有积极促进作用。基于2000、2005、2010和2015年4期土地利用数据和社会经济数据，以西部典型山区川西为案例，采用生态系统服务价值当量评估法和人类福祉框架构建指数评估模型，通过地理加权回归（GWR）探析生态系统服务对县域居民福祉的空间驱动特征与动态变化，识别影响福祉的主导生态系统服务因子。结果表明：（1）川西山区居民福祉呈同质集聚，空间依赖关系逐步减弱，"高-高"与"低-低"集聚在南北分异明显。（2）全域上生态系统服务因子对居民福祉具有显著负向影响，阻滞效应趋于减缓。（3）局域空间上影响系数具有方向和程度异性，西部减量效应明显，阿坝州和凉山州东北部增量效应显著，敏感程度从东南向西北梯次递减，负向敏感性强于正向敏感性，空间差异随时间变化趋于缩小。（4）供给与文化服务是影响川西山区居民福祉的关键生态系统服务，主控区域随时间变化在川西东北部和西部交替。山区生态资源红利释放应以新发展理念为导向，通过生态文明建设、生态经济提质、资源有偿使用和生态补偿制度设计助推生态资源价值创造与转换，实现山区可持续发展。     

基于动态当量的彝汉交错深度贫困区生态系统服务价值时空演变研究

生态系统服务价值是生态保护、主体功能区划定、三生空间确定和生态补偿标准制定的重要依据和基础。以彝汉交错深度贫困区的峨边彝族自治县、马边彝族自治县和金口河区为研究区域,基于2000-2015年土地利用数据,运用生态服务价值动态当量法,揭示不同地区的生态系统服务价值的时空演变特征。结果表明：（1）2000-2015年研究区内土地利用变化较为强烈,汉居区、彝汉混居区、彝居区的土地利用强度均呈现增强的趋势,但变化幅度较小;（2）研究区生态系统服务价值整体呈现出下降的趋势,仅在2010年略有回升,且不同生态系统和生态服务功能的价值存在差异;（3）从空间分布上来看,生态服务价值总量呈现出中部和西部高、东部低的特征,且各区域变化方向存在差异,上升区域主要集中在东部的彝汉混居区和汉居区,下降区域主要集中在中西部的彝居区和彝汉混居区。基于动态当量进行生态服务系统价值时空演变研究,立足于变化过程,着眼于现状,可为区域的生态补偿机制的建立与生态保护规划提供科学辅助决策。     

珊瑚礁生态系统病毒研究进展

病毒对珊瑚礁生态系统中的生物进化、生物地球化学循环、珊瑚疾病等方面具有重要的生态影响。随着珊瑚礁的全球性退化，病毒在珊瑚礁生态系统中的功能与危害日益显现。综述了珊瑚礁生态系统中病毒的研究现状与进展，包括：（1）珊瑚礁病毒的多样性与分布特征（水体、宿主、核心病毒组）；（2）珊瑚礁病毒的生态功能（感染方式、促进生物进化、生物地球化学循环）；（3）珊瑚礁病毒对全球气候变化的响应（热压力、珊瑚疾病）。总体而言，珊瑚礁生态系统具有极高的病毒多样性，所发现的60个科占已知所有病毒科数量的58%。珊瑚的核心病毒组主要由双链DNA病毒、单链DNA病毒、单链逆转录病毒所组成，珊瑚黏液层对病毒具有富集作用。"Piggyback-the-Winner"（依附-胜利）是病毒在珊瑚礁中主要的生物动力学模式，其可通过水平基因迁移的方式促进礁区生物进化。病毒可通过裂解细菌与浮游藻类的途径参与珊瑚礁的生物地球化学循环，尤其是碳循环与氮循环过程。此外，病毒还具有介导珊瑚热白化与直接引发珊瑚疾病的能力，这会影响珊瑚礁生态系统应对气候变化的适应性与恢复力。基于国际上的研究进展综述，结合南海珊瑚礁生态现状提出以下研究方向，以期促进我国珊瑚礁病毒学的发展：（1）开展南海珊瑚礁中病毒多样性的识别及其时-空分布特征研究；（2）探索病毒对南海珊瑚热白化、珊瑚疾病的介导作用及其与气候变化的关系；（3）揭示病毒对南海珊瑚礁生物地球化学循环的贡献。     

Analysis on variation trend of coral reef in Xisha

Xisha Islands, located in the northern part of South China Sea, consist of more than 20 islands and atolls. The coral reef of Xisha Islands belongs to the typical ocean distribution of world’s coral reefs, its ecosystem is the most typical in our country and hermatypic coral species are about three-quarters of the total coral species in China. It is addressed with the oldest coral reef community which of the most original and valuable in China. The previous research shows that the islands studded in South China Sea such as Xisha Islands have important influence on the formation of coral reefs along the mainland coast by multiplying and migrating from south to the north. It is supplementary sources of coastal coral larvae in Hainan and Guangdong. Therefore, carrying out the monitoring of coral reef community ecosystem is of great significance to the ecological protection. By the Manta tow and the Line Intercept Transect method, five stations (Xisha Yong xing dao, Shi dao, Xisha zhou, Zhao Shu dao and Bei dao) on Xisha ecological monitoring area were monitored continually from 2005 to 2009. We compared the index changes of Hermatypic coral’s species, coverage and recruitment, and combining with Condition Index, Succession Index, and the variation trend of hard coral in Xisha were analyzed.
The results show that, from 2005 to 2009, the coverage of living hermatypic corals in ecological monitoring area is sharply reduced from 68.19% to 7.93%, while the dead coral coverage is sharply increased from 4.70% to 72.90%. Coral recruitment is reduced from 1.18 ind/100 m² to 0.07 ind/100 m², hermatypic coral species decreased from 87 to 35. In 2005, the health of coral reefs was very good, and the Condition Index was 1.097. However, the Condition Index cut down to a very low degree in 2009. It was only ?0.880. The Succession Index belonged to “very low degree” from 2005 to 2009, and the numerical value was gradually reduce from ?0.984 to ?1.876.
As a whole, hermatypic corals are serious degrade regionally and caused great change to the coral structure and biodiversity, this will lead to a continuous degradation of coral reefs.     

Legacy effects of anthropogenic disturbances modulate dynamics in the world's coral reefs

Rapidly changing conditions alter disturbance patterns, highlighting the need to better understand how the transition from pulse disturbances to more persistent stress will impact ecosystem dynamics. We conducted a global analysis of the impacts of 11 types of disturbances on reef integrity using the rate of change of coral cover as a measure of damage. Then, we evaluated how the magnitude of the damage due to thermal stress, cyclones, and diseases varied among tropical Atlantic and Indo-Pacific reefs and whether the cumulative impact of thermal stress and cyclones was able to modulate the responses of reefs to future events. We found that reef damage largely depends on the condition of a reef before a disturbance, disturbance intensity, and biogeographic region, regardless of the type of disturbance. Changes in coral cover after thermal stress events were largely influenced by the cumulative stress of past disturbances and did not depend on disturbance intensity or initial coral cover, which suggests that an ecological memory is present within coral communities. In contrast, the effect of cyclones (and likely other physical impacts) was primarily modulated by the initial reef condition and did not appear to be influenced by previous impacts. Our findings also underscore that coral reefs can recover if stressful conditions decrease, yet the lack of action to reduce anthropogenic impacts and greenhouse gas emissions continues to trigger reef degradation. We uphold that evidence-based strategies can guide managers to make better decisions to prepare for future disturbances.     

珊瑚礁生态系统模型研究现状及热点分析

以Web of Science数据库中的Web of Science ~(TM)核心合集和中国期刊全文数据库为数据源,对2018年10月前国内外发表的珊瑚礁生态系统模型研究相关文献进行计量分析,评估该领域的研究现状及热点。研究表明:国外珊瑚礁生态系统模型研究起始于1974年,相关文献的发文量整体呈大幅度增长趋势;国内研究于1997年起步,发文量增长较缓慢,近三年显著增加。高频关键词统计分析可以看出,国外对于珊瑚礁中生活的各种生物及其生态分布研究较为广泛,生态系统的生物群落多样性是该领域的研究热点,关于珊瑚礁生态系统风险、威胁、胁迫和修复的模型研究近几年有所起色,在今后一段时间内将是该领域的主要研究趋势。国内相关研究局限于珊瑚礁地质环境与波浪传播等方面,应在扩大研究范围的同时,将重点放在珊瑚礁生态系统退化诊断与修复的探究上。     

三亚珊瑚礁保护区珊瑚礁生态系统现状及其健康状况评价

为评估三亚珊瑚礁国家级自然保护区珊瑚礁生态系统的健康状况, 本文选取东岛、鹿回头、大东海3个站位调查了珊瑚礁群落、珊瑚礁鱼类和大型底栖动物。通过对比分析历史资料、珊瑚礁现场生态调查与监测及组织专家评审, 筛选出一、二级指标并设置权重, 使用综合指数计算了三亚珊瑚礁保护区珊瑚礁生态系统健康指数。结果显示, 三亚珊瑚礁保护区内共有造礁珊瑚10科21属37种, 软珊瑚3种, 造礁珊瑚覆盖率和软珊瑚覆盖率分别为14.31%和0.19%, 其中鹿回头造礁珊瑚覆盖率最高, 为21.58%。珊瑚礁鱼类共14科28属36种, 其中, 雀鲷科的种类数最多, 为11种。鹿回头4 m断面珊瑚礁鱼类密度最大, 为154尾/300 m²。砗磲和龙虾极少发现, 珊瑚天敌核果螺多见。东岛、鹿回头、大东海珊瑚礁生态系统健康状况均处于“一般”。本文所采用的方法是结合常规珊瑚礁监测可获得的指标进行评价, 简便易操作, 通过在三亚珊瑚礁保护区的实践, 能够很好地反映珊瑚礁生态系统现状及其健康状况, 科研和业务化监测部门均可应用。     

珊瑚礁生态系统服务及其价值评估

珊瑚礁生态系统以其极高的生物多样性和美丽的水下景观而被人类过度利用,为了有效地管理和可持续利用珊瑚礁,对其生态系统服务及价值的评估就显得十分重要。本文介绍了珊瑚礁生态系统服务及其价值。以及评估方法的研究动态。珊瑚礁生态系统服务是指珊瑚礁生态系统与生态过程所形成及维持的人类赖以生存的自然环境条件与其效用,珊瑚礁生态系统服务分为经济性服务、生态性服务和社会性服务3部分,给出相应于珊瑚礁生态系统服务内容的价值分类以及常用的生产效益法、替代费用法、损害费用法、旅行费用法和条件价值法5种评估方法。文中还介绍了中国珊瑚礁的分布与特点,并根据国内珊瑚礁生态系统的状况,指出了中国开展珊瑚礁生态系统服务及其价值评估的迫切性。     

The need for broader ecological and socioeconomic tools to evaluate the effectiveness of coral restoration programs

Coral reef restoration initiatives are burgeoning in response to the need for novel management strategies to address dramatic global declines in coral cover. However, coral restoration programs typically lack rigor and critical evaluation of their effectiveness. A review of 83 peer‐reviewed papers that used coral transplantation for reef restoration reveals that growth and survival of coral fragments were the most widely used indicators of restoration success, with 88% of studies using these two indicators either solely (55%) or in combination with a limited number of other ecological factors (33%). In 53% of studies, reef condition was monitored for 1 year or less, while only 5% of reefs were monitored for more than 5 years post‐transplantation. These results highlight that coral reef restoration science has focused primarily on short‐term experiments to evaluate the feasibility of techniques for ecological restoration and the initial establishment phase post‐transplantation, rather than on longer‐term outcomes for coral reef communities. Here, we outline 10 socioecological indicators that comprehensively evaluate the effectiveness of coral reef restoration across the four pillars of sustainability (i.e. environmental, sociocultural, governance, and economic contributions to sustainable communities). We recommend that evaluations of the effectiveness of coral restoration programs integrate ecological indicators with sociocultural, economic, and governance considerations. Assessing the efficacy of coral restoration as a tool to support reef resilience will help to guide future efforts and ensure the sustainable maintenance of reef ecosystem goods and services.     

Caribbean reefs of the Anthropocene: Variance in ecosystem metrics indicates bright spots on coral depauperate reefs

Dramatic coral loss has significantly altered many Caribbean reefs, with potentially important consequences for the ecological functions and ecosystem services provided by reef systems. Many studies examine coral loss and its causes—and often presume a universal decline of ecosystem services with coral loss—rather than evaluating the range of possible outcomes for a diversity of ecosystem functions and services at reefs varying in coral cover. We evaluate 10 key ecosystem metrics, relating to a variety of different reef ecosystem functions and services, on 328 Caribbean reefs varying in coral cover. We focus on the range and variability of these metrics rather than on mean responses. In contrast to a prevailing paradigm, we document high variability for a variety of metrics, and for many the range of outcomes is not related to coral cover. We find numerous “bright spots,” where herbivorous fish biomass, density of large fishes, fishery value, and/or fish species richness are high, despite low coral cover. Although it remains critical to protect and restore corals, understanding variability in ecosystem metrics among low‐coral reefs can facilitate the maintenance of reefs with sustained functions and services as we work to restore degraded systems. This framework can be applied to other ecosystems in the Anthropocene to better understand variance in ecosystem service outcomes and identify where and why bright spots exist.     

国家尺度自然保护地生态系统联网监测指标体系构建与应用研究

自然保护地是维护国家生态安全, 提升生物多样性保护成效的重要载体, 对保护地生态系统进行实时、高频、多尺度的监测是认知其动态变化的有效手段, 也是实现自然保护地生态系统健康管理的基石。由于目前我国没有形成自然保护地生态系统监测网络, 缺少统一的联网监测指标体系, 导致多数自然保护地生态系统组成家底不清、动态不明, 应对生物多样性保护新问题的能力不足, 并且在国家尺度上的自然保护地生态系统健康状况及保护成效评估缺乏联网监测数据支撑。因此, 亟需构建国家尺度的自然保护地生态系统组成和动态监测网络, 以及一套科学、系统、规范的自然保护地生态系统联网监测指标体系。该文针对自然保护地生物多样性和生态系统监测的目标和内容, 参考国内外现有的生态系统监测网络的指标体系, 确定了自然保护地生态系统联网监测指标体系建立和选取的基本原则, 建立了一套适用于国家尺度的自然保护地生态系统联网监测指标体系, 并在6个国家级自然保护区进行示范。构建的指标体系针对构成生态系统的6类关键要素(生境要素、生物要素、气象要素、土壤要素、大气和水环境要素、景观要素)制定了30个监测指标, 有效应用于森林、草地、荒漠、湿地等生态系统类型的自然保护地, 能够实现对不同类型自然保护地生态系统组分和结构的现状和演变特征进行长期、动态化监测, 并可为自然保护地保护成效评估和健康管理提供规范化、标准化的基础数据。     

How much time can herbivore protection buy for coral reefs under realistic regimes of hurricanes and coral bleaching?

Coral reefs have been more severely impacted by recent climate instability than any other ecosystem on Earth. Corals tolerate a narrow range of physical environmental stress, and increases in sea temperature of just 1 °C over several weeks can result in mass coral mortality, often exceeding 95% of individuals over hundreds of square kilometres. Even conservative climate models predict that mass coral bleaching events could occur annually by 2050. Unfortunately, managers of coral‐reef resources have few options available to meet this challenge. Here, we investigate the role that fisheries conservation tools, including the designation of marine reserves, can play in altering future trajectories of Caribbean coral reefs. We use an individual‐based model of the ecological dynamics to test the influence of spatially realistic regimes of disturbance on coral populations. Two major sources of disturbance, hurricanes and coral bleaching, are simulated in contrasting regions of the Caribbean: Belize, Bonaire, and the Bahamas. Simulations are extended to 2099 using the HadGEM1 climate model. We find that coral populations can maintain themselves under all levels of hurricane disturbance providing that grazing levels are high. Regional differences in hurricane frequency are found to cause strikingly different spatial patterns of reef health with greater patchiness occurring in Belize, which has less frequent disturbance, than the Bahamas. The addition of coral bleaching led to a much more homogenous reef state over the seascape. Moreover, in the presence of bleaching, all reefs exhibited a decline in health over time, though with substantial variation among regions. Although the protection of herbivores does not prevent reef degradation it does delay rates of coral loss even under the most severe thermal and hurricane regimes. Thus, we can estimate the degree to which local conservation can help buy time for reefs with values ranging between 18 years in the Bahamas and over 50 years in Bonaire, compared with heavily fished systems. Ultimately, we demonstrate that local conservation measures can benefit reef ecosystem services but that their impact will vary spatially and temporally. Recognizing where such management interventions will either help or fail is an important step towards both achieving sustainable use of coral‐reef resources and maximizing resource management investments.