Modeling climate change impacts on overwintering bald eagles

Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are recovering from severe population declines, and are exerting pressure on food resources in some areas. Thousands of bald eagles overwinter near Puget Sound, primarily to feed on chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) carcasses. We used modeling techniques to examine how anticipated climate changes will affect energetic demands of overwintering bald eagles. We applied a regional downscaling method to two global climate change models to obtain hourly temperature, precipitation, wind, and longwave radiation estimates at the mouths of three Puget Sound tributaries (the Skagit, Hamma Hamma, and Nisqually rivers) in two decades, the 1970s and the 2050s. Climate data were used to drive bald eagle bioenergetics models from December to February for each river, year, and decade. Bald eagle bioenergetics were insensitive to climate change: despite warmer winters in the 2050s, particularly near the Nisqually River, bald eagle food requirements declined only slightly (<1%). However, the warming climate caused salmon carcasses to decompose more rapidly, resulting in 11% to 14% less annual carcass biomass available to eagles in the 2050s. That estimate is likely conservative, as it does not account for decreased availability of carcasses due to anticipated increases in winter stream flow. Future climate-driven declines in winter food availability, coupled with a growing bald eagle population, may force eagles to seek alternate prey in the Puget Sound area or in more remote ecosystems.     

Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050

By 2050, the world population is likely to be 9.1 billion, the CO₂ concentration 550 ppm, the ozone concentration 60 ppb and the climate warmer by ca 2°C. In these conditions, what contribution can increased crop yield make to feeding the world?CO₂ enrichment is likely to increase yields of most crops by approximately 13 per cent but leave yields of C4 crops unchanged. It will tend to reduce water consumption by all crops, but this effect will be approximately cancelled out by the effect of the increased temperature on evaporation rates. In many places increased temperature will provide opportunities to manipulate agronomy to improve crop performance. Ozone concentration increases will decrease yields by 5 per cent or more.Plant breeders will probably be able to increase yields considerably in the CO₂-enriched environment of the future, and most weeds and airborne pests and diseases should remain controllable, so long as policy changes do not remove too many types of crop-protection chemicals. However, soil-borne pathogens are likely to be an increasing problem when warmer weather will increase their multiplication rates; control is likely to need a transgenic approach to breeding for resistance. There is a large gap between achievable yields and those delivered by farmers, even in the most efficient agricultural systems. A gap is inevitable, but there are large differences between farmers, even between those who have used the same resources. If this gap is closed and accompanied by improvements in potential yields then there is a good prospect that crop production will increase by approximately 50 per cent or more by 2050 without extra land. However, the demands for land to produce bio-energy have not been factored into these calculations.     

An Integrated Approach to Crop Genetic Improvement

The balance between the supply and demand of the major food crops is fragile,fueling concerns for long-term global food security.The rising population,increasing wealth and a proliferation of nonfood uses(e.g.bioenergy) has led to growing demands on agriculture,while increased production is limited by greater urbanization,and the degradation of land.Furthermore,global climate change with increasing temperatures and lower,more erratic rainfall is projected to decrease agricultural yields.There is a predicted need to increase food production by at least 70% by 2050 and therefore an urgent need to develop novel and integrated approaches,incorporating high-throughput phenotyping that will both increaseproduction per unit area and simultaneously improve the resource use efficiency of crops.Yield potential,yield stability,nutrient and water use are all complex multigenic traits and while there is genetic variability,their complexity makes such traits difficult to breed for directly.Nevertheless molecular plant breeding has the potential to deliver substantial improvements,once the component traits and the genes underlying these traits have been identified.In addition,interactions between the individual traits must also be taken into account,a demand that is difficult to fulfill with traditional screening approaches.Identified traits will be incorporated into new cultivars using conventional or biotechnological tools.In order to better understand the relationship between genotype,component traits,and environment over time,a multidisciplinary approach must be adopted to both understand the underlying processes and identify candidate genes,QTLs and traits that can be used to develop improved crops.     

Human impacts on the African Great Lakes

The African Great Lakes are important sources of fishes and water for domestic use, are used as avenues of transport, and receive agricultural, domestic and industrial effluents and atmospheric residues. Some of these lakes have speciose fish faunas of great interest to science. The catchment areas of some of the lakes are highly populated and user conflicts have increased the demands on the lakes' resources. There have been drastic reductions in fish stocks in most of the lakes due to overfishing. Introductions of new fish species, though followed by increases in fish catches, have been accompanied by a decline and in some cases extinction of native fish species. Some of the lakes have been invaded by the water hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes. Agricultural activities, deforestation and devegetation of the catchment areas have increased siltation, and led to loss of suitable habitats and biodiversity. There are increased nutrient inputs from agriculture, sewage and industrial discharges and combustion processes which can cause eutrophication. There are also increased threats of toxic pollution from industrial waste discharge, mining, pesticides, and oil residues and spills. Climatic changes may also affect thermal stability of the lakes. These factors threaten availability of dietary protein, clean water and biodiversity. National and international efforts are required to manage the fisheries, guide the introduction of exotics, conserve biodiversity, control the water hyacinth, control eutrophication, reduce input of contaminants and manage climate change.     

Trade‐offs for food production,nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential

Large‐scale biomass plantations (BPs) are a common factor in climate mitigation scenarios as they promise double benefits: extracting carbon from the atmosphere and providing a renewable energy source. However, their terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potentials depend on important factors such as land availability, efficiency of capturing biomass‐derived carbon and the timing of operation. Land availability is restricted by the demands of future food production depending on yield increases and population growth, by requirements for nature conservation and, with respect to climate mitigation, avoiding unfavourable albedo changes. We integrate these factors in one spatially explicit biogeochemical simulation framework to explore the tCDR opportunity space on land available after these constraints are taken into account, starting either in 2020 or 2050, and lasting until 2100. We find that assumed future needs for nature protection and food production strongly limit tCDR potentials. BPs on abandoned crop and pasture areas (~1,300 Mha in scenarios of either 8.0 billion people and yield gap reductions of 25% until 2020 or 9.5 billion people and yield gap reductions of 50% until 2050) could, theoretically, sequester ~100 GtC in land carbon stocks and biomass harvest by 2100. However, this potential would be ~80% lower if only cropland was available or ~50% lower if albedo decreases were considered as a factor restricting land availability. Converting instead natural forest, shrubland or grassland into BPs could result in much larger tCDR potentials ? but at high environmental costs (e.g. biodiversity loss). The most promising avenue for effective tCDR seems to be improvement of efficient carbon utilization pathways, changes in dietary trends or the restoration of marginal lands for the implementation of tCDR.     

The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services

Alteration in land use is likely to be a major driver of changes in the distribution of ecosystem services before 2050. In Europe, urbanization will probably be the main cause of land-use change. This increase in urbanization will result in spatial shifts in both supplies of ecosystem services and the beneficiaries of those services; the net outcome of such shifts remains to be determined. Here, we model changes in urban land cover in Britain based on large (16%) projected increases in the human population by 2031, and the consequences for three different services--flood mitigation, agricultural production and carbon storage. We show that under a scenario of densification of urban areas, the combined effect of increasing population and loss of permeable surfaces is likely to result in 1.7 million people living within 1 km of rivers with at least 10 per cent increases in projected peak flows, but that increasing suburban 'sprawl' will have little effect on flood mitigation services. Conversely, losses of stored carbon and agricultural production are over three times as high under the sprawl as under the 'densification' urban growth scenarios. Our results illustrate the challenges of meeting, but also of predicting, future demands and patterns of ecosystem services in the face of increasing urbanization.     

Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970–2050

Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land‐use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya–Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural production and GHGs have been steadily decoupled over recent decades. Emissions peaked in 1991 at ~12 Pg CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 and have not exceeded this since. Since 1970 GHG emissions per unit product have declined by 39% and 44% for crop‐ and livestock‐production, respectively. Except for the energy‐use component of farming, emissions from all sources have increased less than agricultural production. Our projected business‐as‐usual range suggests that emissions may be further decoupled by 20–55% giving absolute agricultural emissions of 8.2–14.5 Pg CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 by 2050, significantly lower than many previous estimates that do not allow for decoupling. Beyond this, several additional costcompetitive mitigation measures could reduce emissions further. However, agricultural GHG emissions can only be reduced to a certain level and a simultaneous focus on other parts of the food‐system is necessary to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis.     

Climate change‐induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change‐induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change‐induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water‐limited ecosystems.     

Predicting how adaptation to climate change could affect ecological conservation: secondary impacts of shifting agricultural suitability

Aim:  Ecosystems face numerous well‐documented threats from climate change. The well‐being of people also is threatened by climate change, most prominently by reduced food security. Human adaptation to food scarcity, including shifting agricultural zones, will create new threats for natural ecosystems. We investigated how shifts in crop suitability because of climate change may overlap currently protected areas (PAs) and priority sites for PA expansion in South Africa. Predicting the locations of suitable climate conditions for crop growth will assist conservationists and decision‐makers in planning for climate change. Location:  South Africa. Methods:  We modelled climatic suitability in 2055 for maize and wheat cultivation, two extensively planted, staple crops, and overlaid projected changes with PAs and PA expansion priorities. Results:  Changes in winter climate could make an additional 2 million ha of land suitable for wheat cultivation, while changes in summer climate could expand maize suitability by up to 3.5 million ha. Conversely, 3 million ha of lands currently suitable for wheat production are predicted to become climatically unsuitable, along with 13 million ha for maize. At least 328 of 834 (39%) PAs are projected to be affected by altered wheat or maize suitability in their buffer zones. Main conclusions:  Reduced crop suitability and food scarcity in subsistence areas may lead to the exploitation of PAs for food and fuel. However, if reduced crop suitability leads to agricultural abandonment, this may afford opportunities for ecological restoration. Expanded crop suitability in PA buffer zones could lead to additional isolation of PAs if portions of newly suitable land are converted to agriculture. These results suggest that altered crop suitability will be widespread throughout South Africa, including within and around lands identified as conservation priorities. Assessing how climate change will affect crop suitability near PAs is a first step towards proactively identifying potential conflicts between human adaptation and conservation planning.     

Income distribution trends and future food demand

This paper surveys the theoretical literature on the relationship between income distribution and food demand, and identifies main gaps of current food modelling techniques that affect the accuracy of food demand projections. At the heart of the relationship between income distribution and food demand is Engel''s law. Engel''s law establishes that as income increases, households'' demand for food increases less than proportionally. A consequence of this law is that the particular shape of the distribution of income across individuals and countries affects the rate of growth of food demand. Our review of the literature suggests that existing models of food demand fail to incorporate the required Engel flexibility when (i) aggregating different food budget shares among households; and (ii) changing budget shares as income grows. We perform simple simulations to predict growth in food demand under alternative income distribution scenarios taking into account nonlinearity of food demand. Results suggest that (i) distributional effects are to be expected from changes in between-countries inequality, rather than within-country inequality; and (ii) simulations of an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario of income inequality suggest that world food demand in 2050 would be 2.7 per cent higher and 5.4 per cent lower than distributional-neutral growth, respectively.     

The Role of Latin America’s Land and Water Resources for Global Food Security: Environmental Trade-Offs of Future Food Production Pathways

One of humanity’s major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC’s agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)—a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector—to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.     

Climate change‐associated tree mortality increases without decreasing water availability

Temporal increases of tree mortality have been observed in regions where global warming has decreased long‐term water availability and/or induced droughts. However, temporal decreases in water availability are not a global phenomenon. Understanding how water deficit‐free forests respond to the recent effects of climate change is paramount towards a full appreciation of the impacts of climate change on global forests. Here, we reveal temporally increasing tree mortality across all study species over the last three decades in the central boreal forests of Canada, where long‐term water availability has increased without apparent climate change‐associated drought. In addition, we find that the effects of conspecific tree‐to‐tree competition have intensified temporally as a mechanism for the increased mortality of shade‐intolerant tree species. Our results suggest that the consequences of climate change on tree mortality are more profound than previously thought.     

Potential trade‐offs of employing perennial biomass crops for the bioeconomy in the EU by 2050: Impacts on agricultural markets in the EU and the world

Perennial biomass crops (PBC) are considered a crucial feedstock for sustainable biomass supply to the bioeconomy that compete less with food production compared to traditional crops. However, large‐scale development of PBC as a means to reach greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets would require not only the production on land previously not used for agriculture, but also the use of land that is currently used for agricultural production. This study aims to evaluate agricultural market impacts with biomass demand for food, feed, and PBC in four bioeconomy scenarios (“Business as usual,” “Improved relevance of bioeconomy,” “Extensive transformation to a bioeconomy,” “Extensive transformation to a bioeconomy with diet change”) to achieve a 75% GHG reduction target in the emission trading sector of the EU until 2050. We simulated bioeconomy scenarios in the energy system model TIMES‐PanEU and the agricultural sector model ESIM and conducted a sensitivity analysis considering crop yields, PBC yields, and land use options of PBC. Our results show that all bioeconomy scenarios except the one with diet change lead to increasing food prices (the average food price index increases by about 11% in the EU and 2.5%–3.0% in world markets). A combination of the transformation to a bioeconomy combined with diet change toward less animal protein in the EU is the only scenario that results in only moderately increasing food prices within the EU (+3.0%) and even falling global food prices (–6.4%). In addition, crop yield improvement and cultivation of PBC on marginal land help to reduce increases in food prices, but higher land prices are inevitable because those measures have only small effects on sparing agricultural land for PBC. For a transition to a bioeconomy that acknowledges climate mitigation targets, counter‐measures for those substantial direct and indirect impacts on agricultural markets should be taken into account.     

Conceptualising the interactive effects of climate change and biological invasions on subarctic freshwater fish

Climate change and species invasions represent key threats to global biodiversity. Subarctic freshwaters are sentinels for understanding both stressors because the effects of climate change are disproportionately strong at high latitudes and invasion of temperate species is prevalent. Here, we summarize the environmental effects of climate change and illustrate the ecological responses of freshwater fishes to these effects, spanning individual, population, community and ecosystem levels. Climate change is modifying hydrological cycles across atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic components of subarctic ecosystems, causing increases in ambient water temperature and nutrient availability. These changes affect the individual behavior, habitat use, growth and metabolism, alter population spawning and recruitment dynamics, leading to changes in species abundance and distribution, modify food web structure, trophic interactions and energy flow within communities and change the sources, quantity and quality of energy and nutrients in ecosystems. Increases in temperature and its variability in aquatic environments underpin many ecological responses; however, altered hydrological regimes, increasing nutrient inputs and shortened ice cover are also important drivers of climate change effects and likely contribute to context‐dependent responses. Species invasions are a complex aspect of the ecology of climate change because the phenomena of invasion are both an effect and a driver of the ecological consequences of climate change. Using subarctic freshwaters as an example, we illustrate how climate change can alter three distinct aspects of species invasions: (1) the vulnerability of ecosystems to be invaded, (2) the potential for species to spread and invade new habitats, and (3) the subsequent ecological effects of invaders. We identify three fundamental knowledge gaps focused on the need to determine (1) how environmental and landscape characteristics influence the ecological impact of climate change, (2) the separate and combined effects of climate and non‐native invading species and (3) the underlying ecological processes or mechanisms responsible for changes in patterns of biodiversity.     

An integrated assessment of the potential of agricultural and forestry residues for energy production in China

Biomass has been widely recognized as an important energy source with high potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while minimizing environmental pollution. In this study, we employ the Global Change Assessment Model to estimate the potential of agricultural and forestry residue biomass for energy production in China. Potential availability of residue biomass as an energy source was analyzed for the 21st century under different climate policy scenarios. Currently, the amount of total annual residue biomass, averaged over 2003–2007, is around 15 519 PJ in China, consisting of 10 818 PJ from agriculture residues (70%) and 4701 PJ forestry residues (30%). We estimate that 12 693 PJ of the total biomass is available for energy production, with 66% derived from agricultural residue and 34% from forestry residue. Most of the available residue is from south central China (3347 PJ), east China (2862 PJ) and south‐west China (2229 PJ), which combined exceeds 66% of the total national biomass. Under the reference scenario without carbon tax, the potential availability of residue biomass for energy production is projected to be 3380 PJ by 2050 and 4108 PJ by 2095, respectively. When carbon tax is imposed, biomass availability increases substantially. For the CCS 450 ppm scenario, availability of biomass increases to 9002 PJ (2050) and 11 524 PJ (2095), respectively. For the 450 ppm scenario without CCS, 9183 (2050) and 11 150 PJ (2095) residue biomass, respectively, is projected to be available. Moreover, the implementation of CCS will have a little impact on the supply of residue biomass after 2035. Our results suggest that residue biomass has the potential to be an important component in China's sustainable energy production portfolio. As a low carbon emission energy source, climate change policies that involve carbon tariff and CCS technology promote the use of residue biomass for energy production in a low carbon‐constrained world.     

Simultaneous improvement in productivity,water use,and albedo through crop structural modification

Spanning 15% of the global ice‐free terrestrial surface, agricultural lands provide an immense and near‐term opportunity to address climate change, food, and water security challenges. Through the computationally informed breeding of canopy structural traits away from those of modern cultivars, we show that solutions exist that increase productivity and water use efficiency, while increasing land‐surface reflectivity to offset greenhouse gas warming. Plants have evolved to maximize capture of radiation in the upper leaves, thus shading competitors. While important for survival in the wild, this is suboptimal in monoculture crop fields for maximizing productivity and other biogeophysical services. Crop progenitors evolved over the last 25 million years in an atmosphere with less than half the [CO₂] projected for 2050. By altering leaf photosynthetic rates, rising [CO₂] and temperature may also alter the optimal canopy form. Here using soybean, the world's most important protein crop, as an example we show by applying optimization routines to a micrometeorological leaf canopy model linked to a steady‐state model of photosynthesis, that significant gains in production, water use, and reflectivity are possible with no additional demand on resources. By modifying total canopy leaf area, its vertical profile and angular distribution, and shortwave radiation reflectivity, all traits available in most major crop germplasm collections, increases in productivity (7%) are possible with no change in water use or albedo. Alternatively, improvements in water use (13%) or albedo (34%) can likewise be made with no loss of productivity, under Corn Belt climate conditions.     

Climate trends account for stalled wheat yields in Australia since 1990

Global food security requires that grain yields continue to increase to 2050, yet yields have stalled in many developed countries. This disturbing trend has so far been only partially explained. Here, we show that wheat yields in Australia have stalled since 1990 and investigate the extent to which climate trends account for this observation. Based on simulation of 50 sites with quality weather data, that are representative of the agro‐ecological zones and of soil types in the grain zone, we show that water‐limited yield potential declined by 27% over a 26 year period from 1990 to 2015. We attribute this decline to reduced rainfall and to rising temperatures while the positive effect of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations prevented a further 4% loss relative to 1990 yields. Closer investigation of three sites revealed the nature of the simulated response of water‐limited yield to water availability, water stress and maximum temperatures. At all three sites, maximum temperature hastened time from sowing to flowering and to maturity and reduced grain number per m² and average weight per grain. This 27% climate‐driven decline in water‐limited yield is not fully expressed in actual national yields. This is due to an unprecedented rate of technology‐driven gains closing the gap between actual and water‐limited potential yields by 25 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 enabling relative yields to increase from 39% in 1990 to 55% in 2015. It remains to be seen whether technology can continue to maintain current yields, let alone increase them to those required by 2050.     

Considering land–sea interactions and trade‐offs for food and biodiversity

With the human population expected to near 10 billion by 2050, and diets shifting towards greater per‐capita consumption of animal protein, meeting future food demands will place ever‐growing burdens on natural resources and those dependent on them. Solutions proposed to increase the sustainability of agriculture, aquaculture, and capture fisheries have typically approached development from single sector perspectives. Recent work highlights the importance of recognising links among food sectors, and the challenge cross‐sector dependencies create for sustainable food production. Yet without understanding the full suite of interactions between food systems on land and sea, development in one sector may result in unanticipated trade‐offs in another. We review the interactions between terrestrial and aquatic food systems. We show that most of the studied land–sea interactions fall into at least one of four categories: ecosystem connectivity, feed interdependencies, livelihood interactions, and climate feedback. Critically, these interactions modify nutrient flows, and the partitioning of natural resource use between land and sea, amid a backdrop of climate variability and change that reaches across all sectors. Addressing counter‐productive trade‐offs resulting from land‐sea links will require simultaneous improvements in food production and consumption efficiency, while creating more sustainable feed products for fish and livestock. Food security research and policy also needs to better integrate aquatic and terrestrial production to anticipate how cross‐sector interactions could transmit change across ecosystem and governance boundaries into the future.     

Sparing land for nature: exploring the potential impact of changes in agricultural yield on the area needed for crop production

How can rapidly growing food demands be met with least adverse impact on nature? Two very different sorts of suggestions predominate in the literature: wildlife‐friendly farming, whereby on‐farm practices are made as benign to wildlife as possible (at the potential cost of decreasing yields); and land‐sparing, in which farm yields are increased and pressure to convert land for agriculture thereby reduced (at the potential cost of decreasing wildlife populations on farmland). This paper is about one important aspect of the land‐sparing idea – the sensitivity of future requirements for cropland to plausible variation in yield increases, relative to other variables. Focusing on the 23 most energetically important food crops, we use data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) to project plausible values for 2050 for population size, diet, yield, and trade, and then look at their effect on the area needed to meet demand for the 23 crops, for the developing and developed worlds in turn. Our calculations suggest that across developing countries, the area under those crops will need to increase very considerably by 2050 (by 23% under intermediate projections), and that plausible variation in average yield has as much bearing on the extent of that expansion as does variation in population size or per capita consumption; future cropland area varies far less under foreseeable variation in the net import of food from the rest of the world. By contrast, cropland area in developed countries is likely to decrease slightly by 2050 (by 4% under intermediate projections for those 23 crops), and will be less sensitive to variation in population growth, diet, yield, or trade. Other contentious aspects of the land‐sparing idea require further scrutiny, but these results confirm its potential significance and suggest that conservationists should be as concerned about future agricultural yields as they are about population growth and rising per capita consumption.     

Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins,California

We present an integrated hydrology/water operations simulation model of the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California, using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform. The model represents hydrology as well as water operations, which together influence water supplied for agricultural, urban, and environmental uses. The model is developed for impacts assessment using scenarios for climate change and other drivers of water system behavior. In this paper, we describe the model structure, its representation of historical streamflow, agricultural and urban water demands, and water operations. We describe projected impacts of climate change on hydrology and water supply to the major irrigation districts in the area, using uniform 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C increases applied to climate inputs from the calibration period. Consistent with other studies, we find that the timing of hydrology shifts earlier in the water year in response to temperature warming (5–21 days). The integrated agricultural model responds with increased water demands 2°C (1.4–2.0%), 4°C (2.8–3.9%), and 6°C (4.2–5.8%). In this sensitivity analysis, the combination of altered hydrology and increased demands results in decreased reliability of surface water supplied for agricultural purposes, with modeled quantity-based reliability metrics decreasing from a range of 0.84–0.90 under historical conditions to 0.75–0.79 under 6°C warming scenario.