Impacts of climate change on virtual water content of crops in China

Looming water scarcity and climate change pose big challenges for China's food security. Previous studies have focus on the impacts of climate change either on agriculture or on water resources. Few studies have linked water and agriculture together in the context of climate change, and demonstrated how climate change will affect the amount of water used to produce per unit of crop, or virtual water content (VWC). We used a GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model to analyze the current spatial distribution of VWC of various crops in China and the impacts of climate change on VWC in different future scenarios. The results show that C4 crops (e.g. irrigated maize with a VWC of 0.73 m³ kg^− 1 in baseline) generally have a lower VWC than C3 crops (e.g. irrigated wheat with a VWC of 1.1 m³ kg^− 1 in baseline), and the VWC of C4 crops responds less sensitively to the CO₂ concentration change in future climate scenarios. Three general change trends exist for future VWC of crops: continuous decline (for soybean and rice without considering CO₂ concentration changes) and continuous increase (for rice with considering CO₂ concentration changes) and first-decline-then-increase (other crop-scenario combinations). The trends reflect the responses of different crops to changes in precipitation, temperature as well as CO₂ concentration. From south to north along the latitude, there is a high-low-high distribution trend of the aggregated VWC of the crops. Precipitation and temperature changes combined can lead to negative effects on crop yield and higher VWC particularly in the far future e.g. the 2090s, but when CO₂ concentration change is taken into consideration, it is likely that crop yield will increase and crop VWC will decrease for the whole China. Integrated effects of precipitation, temperature and CO₂ concentration changes will benefit agricultural productivity and crop water productivity through all the future periods till the end of the century. Hence, climate change is likely to benefit food security and help alleviate water scarcity in China.     

The future representativeness of Madagascar's protected area network in the face of climate change

With many species predicted to respond to a changing climate by shifting their distribution to climatically suitable areas, the effectiveness of static protected areas (PAs) is in question. The Madagascan PA network area has quadrupled over the past 15 years, and, although conservation planning techniques were employed to prioritise suitable areas for protection during this process, climate change impacts were not considered. We make use of species distribution models for 750 Madagascan vertebrate species to assess the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species richness across Madagascar, (2) species gain, loss and turnover in Madagascar's PAs and (3) PA network representativeness. Results indicate that Madagascar is predicted to experience substantial shifts in species richness, with most PAs predicted to experience high rates of species turnover. Provided there are no barriers to species movements, the representativeness of the current PA network will remain high for the species that are predicted to survive changes in climate by 2070, suggesting that little benefit will be gained from establishing new PAs. However, this rests on the assumption of mobility through areas currently characterised by fragmentation and anthropogenic activity, something that will require considerable expansion in conservation efforts in order to achieve.     

Projected climate impacts to South African maize and wheat production in 2055: a comparison of empirical and mechanistic modeling approaches

Crop model‐specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitability) and productivity of maize and spring wheat in South Africa under 18 downscaled climate scenarios (9 models run under 2 emissions scenarios). EMs projected larger yield losses or smaller gains than MMs. The EMs’ median‐projected maize and wheat yield changes were ?3.6% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 15.2% for the MM. The EM projected a 10% reduction in the potential maize growing area, where the MM projected a 9% gain. Both models showed increases in the potential spring wheat production region (EM = 48%, MM = 20%), but these results were more equivocal because both models (particularly the EM) substantially overestimated the extent of current suitability. The substantial water‐use efficiency gains simulated by the MMs under elevated CO₂ accounted for much of the EM?MM difference, but EMs may have more accurately represented crop temperature sensitivities. Our results align with earlier studies showing that EMs may show larger climate change losses than MMs. Crop forecasting efforts should expand to include EM?MM comparisons to provide a fuller picture of crop–climate response uncertainties.     

Suitability evaluation of some specific crops in Souma area (Iran), using Cervatana and Almagra models

In the present study Cervatana and Almagra models from decision support system, MicroLEIS DSS, were applied to segregation of arable land surfaces from the marginal ones and suitability evaluation of wheat (Triticum aestivum), maize (Zea mays) and alfalfa (Medicago sativa) in Souma area with approximately 4100 ha extension in West Azarbaijan. Obtained results from both models are presented and discussed in this research work. Soil morphological and analytical data were collected from 35 soil profiles, representative of the study area and stored in SDBm plus database. The control or vertical section of soil for applying and running the models for annual selected crops, was calculated by soil layer generator 0.0–50 cm in depth, or between the surface and the limit of useful depth when the latter is between 0.0 and 50 cm. According to results, 80.49% of the total area was good capable for agricultural uses and 19.51% must be reforested and not dedicated to agriculture. The lands with good capability for agricultural uses is classified as highly suitable area (S2) for wheat, maize and alfalfa, but results in 822 ha for maize and in 126 ha for alfalfa refers to an excellent suitable (S1) and moderately suitable (S3) classes respectively. The most important limitation factors are soil texture and carbonate alone or together and maize — wheat — alfalfa can be selected as the best crop rotation. A simple map subsystem (ArcView GIS) was used for basic data and models result demonstration on a map.     

Global Agricultural Land Resources – A High Resolution Suitability Evaluation and Its Perspectives until 2100 under Climate Change Conditions

Changing natural conditions determine the land''s suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981–2010), considering today''s irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071–2100 with 1981–2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km², particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia). Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.     

Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century

Climate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat‐growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041–2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO₂ emission scenario by 2081–2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat‐growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production.     

Feasibility of ley-farming system performance in a semi-arid region using spatial analysis

In order to assess feasibility of ley farming system performance in the Aq-Qala township, a semi-arid region in north of Iran, Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) method and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were integrated to evaluate the suitability of wheat, barley and annual alfalfa cultivation. The agronomic and ecological requirements of three crops were identified from available scientific literatures. In this study, environmental variables were included: 1) average, minimum and maximum temperatures, 2) precipitation, 3) slope, 4) slope aspects, 5) elevation and 6) soil characteristics such as organic matter, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), texture, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, iron, and zinc. Weights of these variables were extracted from analysis of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) questionnaires. The suitability analysis was based on matching between land qualities/characteristics and crop requirements. It was done by the weighted overlay technique (WOT) in GIS. In order to assess the land suitability of ley farming system performance, the digital suitability layers of three crops were overlaid and integrated in GIS media by raster calculator functions, then zoning of region was done in 4 classes, including: Highly suitable, moderately suitable, marginally suitable and non-suitable. Our results indicated that 35.1% (35495.20 ha) of total areas of studied region is suitable for ley farming system. According to the generated agricultural suitability map, it was determinate that 15.2% (20681.77 ha) of the region is non-suitable for ley-farming performance, 19.5% (23245.74 ha) is marginally suitable and, 30.2% (33725.60 ha) is moderately suitable. Highly suitable, moderately suitable and marginally suitable lands were expected to have a crop yield of 80–100%, 60–80% and 40–60% of the yield under optimal conditions with practicable and economic inputs, respectively. It was found that the most areas of the southern and central parts of Aq-Qala are the highly and moderately suitable regions. The results demonstrated that the high EC, low OM and low rainfall are the key limiting factors in non-suitable areas.     

Analysis of climate signals in the crop yield record of sub‐Saharan Africa

Food security and agriculture productivity assessments in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) require a better understanding of how climate and other drivers influence regional crop yields. In this paper, our objective was to identify the climate signal in the realized yields of maize, sorghum, and groundnut in SSA. We explored the relation between crop yields and scale‐compatible climate data for the 1962–2014 period using Random Forest, a diagnostic machine learning technique. We found that improved agricultural technology and country fixed effects are three times more important than climate variables for explaining changes in crop yields in SSA. We also found that increasing temperatures reduced yields for all three crops in the temperature range observed in SSA, while precipitation increased yields up to a level roughly matching crop evapotranspiration. Crop yields exhibited both linear and nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation, respectively. For maize, technology steadily increased yields by about 1% (13 kg/ha) per year while increasing temperatures decreased yields by 0.8% (10 kg/ha) per °C. This study demonstrates that although we should expect increases in future crop yields due to improving technology, the potential yields could be progressively reduced due to warmer and drier climates.     

Is Cassava the Answer to African Climate Change Adaptation?

This paper examines the impacts of climate change on cassava production in Africa, and questions whether cassava can play an important role in climate change adaptation. First, we examine the impacts that climate change will likely have on cassava itself, and on other important staple food crops for Africa including maize, millets, sorghum, banana, and beans based on projections to 2030. Results indicate that cassava is actually positively impacted in many areas of Africa, with ?3.7% to +17.5% changes in climate suitability across the continent. Conversely, for other major food staples, we found that they are all projected to experience negative impacts, with the greatest impacts for beans (?16%?±?8.8), potato (?14.7?±?8.2), banana (?2.5%?±?4.9), and sorghum (?2.66%?±?6.45). We then examined the likely challenges that cassava will face from pests and diseases through the use of ecological niche modeling for cassava mosaic disease, whitefly, brown streak disease and cassava mealybug. The findings show that the geographic distribution of these pests and diseases are projected to change, with both new areas opening up and areas where the pests and diseases are likely to leave or reduce in pressure. We finish the paper by looking at the abiotic traits of priority for crop adaptation for a 2030 world, showing that greater drought tolerance could bring some benefits in all areas of Africa, and that cold tolerance in Southern Africa will continue to be a constraint for cassava despite a warmer 2030 world, hence breeding needs to keep a focus on this trait. Importantly, heat tolerance was not found to be a major priority for crop improvement in cassava in the whole of Africa, but only in localized pockets of West Africa and the Sahel. The paper concludes that cassava is potentially highly resilient to future climatic changes and could provide Africa with options for adaptation whilst other major food staples face challenges.     

Medicinal plants in peril due to climate change in the Himalaya

Climate change is causing many irreversible changes in the Himalayan ecosystems. In this study, an attempt was made to understand the ecological response of medicinal plant species to changing climate conditions in the Sikkim Himalaya, a part of the Eastern Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) approach was used to analyze the potential habitat distribution of 163 medicinal plant species in current and future climates (2050, 2070). An attempt was also made to identify the most suitable areas for conservation and test the effectiveness of the existing Protected Area (PA) network in conserving medicinal plant species in current and future climate scenarios through the Habitat Suitability and Overlap Analyses. SDM analyses revealed that the majority of the medicinal plant species are found in the tropical and sub-tropical regions in the Sikkim Himalaya (300–2000 m) at present. In future climates, however, most of the species are likely to show an upward and northward shift in their distributions. Maximum species-rich regions are likely to shift by 200 m and 400 m in 2050 and 2070, respectively. A total of 13–16% of medicinal plant species currently found in the region are likely to lose their existing potential habitats by 2050 and 2070. The results highlight that species that are restricted to specific localities and have a narrow elevational distribution are the most vulnerable species and likely to go extinct due to climate change in the Himalaya. Habitat suitability analyses indicated that elevations ranging from 860 to 2937 m serve as highly suitable habitats for medicinal plant species in Sikkim Himalaya. Consequently, these areas can be focused for conservation actions in order to mitigate the effect of climate change. The results of Overlap Analysis indicated that out of 8 PAs in Sikkim Himalaya, only 5 PAs are effective in the conservation of medicinal plant species in current and future climates. The boundaries of existing PAs need to be expanded in order to accommodate the upward shifts in the spatial distribution of species, especially in the case of those PAs that are located in the lower elevations or tropical regions. This study provides a novel integrated framework for use of ecological informatics in assessing the species vulnerability to climate change and planning conservation priorities.     

Land suitability for energy crops under scenarios of climate change and land‐use

Bioenergy is expected to play a critical role in climate change mitigation. Most integrated assessment models assume an expansion of agricultural land for cultivation of energy crops. This study examines the suitability of land for growing a range of energy crops on areas that are not required for food production, accounting for climate change impacts and conservation requirements. A global fuzzy logic model is employed to ascertain the suitable cropping areas for a number of sugar, starch and oil crops, energy grasses and short rotation tree species that could be grown specifically for energy. Two climate change scenarios are modelled (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), along with two scenarios representing the land which cannot be used for energy crops due to forest and biodiversity conservation, food agriculture and urban areas. Results indicate that 40% of the global area currently suitable for energy crops overlaps with food land and 31% overlaps with forested or protected areas, highlighting hotspots of potential land competition risks. Approximately 18.8 million km² is suitable for energy crops, to some degree, and does not overlap with protected, forested, urban or food agricultural land. Under the climate change scenario RCP8.5, this increases to 19.6 million km² by the end of the century. Broadly, climate change is projected to decrease suitable areas in southern regions and increase them in northern regions, most notably for grass crops in Russia and China, indicating that potential production areas will shift northwards which could potentially affect domestic use and trade of biomass significantly. The majority of the land which becomes suitable is in current grasslands and is just marginally or moderately suitable. This study therefore highlights the vital importance of further studies examining the carbon and ecosystem balance of this potential land‐use change, energy crop yields in sub‐optimal soil and climatic conditions and potential impacts on livelihoods.     

Projecting the effects of climate change on the distribution of maize races and their wild relatives in Mexico

Climate change is expected to be a significant threat to biodiversity, including crop diversity at centers of origin and diversification. As a way to avoid food scarcity in the future, it is important to have a better understanding of the possible impacts of climate change on crops. We evaluated these impacts on maize, one of the most important crops worldwide, and its wild relatives Tripsacum and Teocintes. Maize is the staple crop in Mexico and Mesoamerica, and there are currently about 59 described races in Mexico, which is considered its center of origin . In this study, we modeled the distribution of maize races and its wild relatives in Mexico for the present and for two time periods in the future (2030 and 2050), to identify the potentially most vulnerable taxa and geographic regions in the face of climate change. Bioclimatic distribution of crops has seldom been modeled, probably because social and cultural factors play an important role on crop suitability. Nonetheless, rainfall and temperature still represent a major influence on crop distribution pattern, particularly in rainfed crop systems under traditional agrotechnology. Such is the case of Mexican maize races and consequently, climate change impacts can be expected. Our findings generally show significant reductions of potential distribution areas by 2030 and 2050 in most cases. However, future projections of each race show contrasting responses to climatic scenarios. Several evaluated races show new potential distribution areas in the future, suggesting that proper management may favor diversity conservation. Modeled distributions of Tripsacum species and Teocintes indicate more severe impacts compared with maize races. Our projections lead to in situ and ex situ conservation recommended actions to guarantee the preservation of the genetic diversity of Mexican maize.     

Will climate change affect ectoparasite species ranges?

Aim  Over the next 100 years, human-driven climate change and resulting changes in species occurrences will have global impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human health. Here we examine how climate change may affect the occurrences of tick species in Africa and alter the suitability of habitat outside Africa for African ticks.
Location  Africa and the world.
Methods  We predicted continental and global changes in habitat suitability for each of 73 African tick species, using multiple regression models in different climate change scenarios that cover a wide range of uncertainty.
Results  Global habitat suitability improves for nearly all tick species under each of a representative range of eight climate change scenarios. Depending on the scenario, African tick species experience an average increase in global habitat suitability of between 1 million and 9 million square kilometres between 1990 and 2100.
Main conclusions  The potential for successful translocations of ticks and their pathogens from Africa to the rest of the world is likely to increase over the next 100 years. Although the general trend is one of range expansion, there are winners and losers among tick species in each scenario, suggesting that tick community composition will be disrupted substantially by climate change. If this is also typical of other invertebrates, then climate change will disrupt not only the geographic location of communities but also their structure. Changes in tick communities are also likely to influence tick-borne pathogens.     

Modelling the distribution of Aspalathus linearis (Rooibos tea): implications of climate change for livelihoods dependent on both cultivation and harvesting from the wild

Aspalathus linearis (Burm. f.) R. Dahlgren (rooibos) is endemic to the Fynbos Biome of South Africa, which is an internationally recognized biodiversity hot spot. Rooibos is both an invaluable wild resource and commercially cultivated crop in suitable areas. Climate change predictions for the region indicate a significant warming scenario coupled with a decline in winter rainfall. First estimates of possible consequences for biodiversity point to species extinctions of 23% in the long term in the Fynbos Biome. Bioclimatic modelling using the maximum entropy method was used to develop an estimate of the realized niche of wild rooibos and the current geographic distribution of areas suitable for commercially production. The distribution modelling provided a good match to the known distribution and production area of A. linearis. An ensemble of global climate models that assume the A2 emissions scenario of high energy requirements was applied to develop possible scenarios of range/suitability shift under future climate conditions. When these were extrapolated to a future climate (2041–2070) both wild and cultivated tea exhibited substantial range contraction with some range shifts southeastwards and upslope. Most of the areas where range expansion was indicated are located in existing conservation areas or include conservation worthy vegetation. These findings will be critical in directing conservation efforts as well as developing strategies for farmers to cope with and adapt to climate change.     

Developing a land evaluation model for faba bean cultivation using geographic information system and multi-criteria analysis (A case study: Gonbad-Kavous region,Iran)

This study was carried out to assess the land suitability for rainfed faba bean (Vicia faba L.) cultivation in Gonbad-Kavous region (Golestan province, north of Iran) using geographic information system (GIS) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP), the most common methods for evaluation of land use suitability. Several parameters were considered in this study, including the annual average, minimum and maximum temperatures, annual precipitation, slope, elevation, and some soil properties such as organic matter, pH, EC, texture, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, iron, and zinc. The environmental parameters and the classification system used in the this work are inspired by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) method dedicated to land suitability. In determining the weights of parameters, expert opinions were consulted and the final land suitability map was generated in five classes. As evidenced by the results, it was estimated that 23.48% of the study area (48,354.5 ha) is highly suitable for faba bean cropping, while 25.38% (52,237.37 ha) is moderately suitable and 25.03% (51,522.85 ha) is marginally suitable. In addition, our results indicated that just 26.11% of total agricultural lands are non-suitable for crop production. The currently non-suitable (49,778.80 ha) and permanently non-suitable (3997.09 ha) classes are located in the north and northwest parts of Gonbad-Kavous township. Soil salinity, low organic matter, low precipitation, high Ca content, and deficiency of P and Fe contents were found to be key limiting factors in this area.     

Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050

In the aftermath of the 2015 pandemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), concerns over links between climate change and emerging arboviruses have become more pressing. Given the potential that much of the world might remain at risk from the virus, we used a previously established temperature‐dependent transmission model for ZIKV to project climate change impacts on transmission suitability risk by mid‐century (a generation into the future). Based on these model predictions, in the worst‐case scenario, over 1.3 billion new people could face suitable transmission temperatures for ZIKV by 2050. The next generation will face substantially increased ZIKV transmission temperature suitability in North America and Europe, where naïve populations might be particularly vulnerable. Mitigating climate change even to moderate emissions scenarios could significantly reduce global expansion of climates suitable for ZIKV transmission, potentially protecting around 200 million people. Given these suitability risk projections, we suggest an increased priority on research establishing the immune history of vulnerable populations, modeling when and where the next ZIKV outbreak might occur, evaluating the efficacy of conventional and novel intervention measures, and increasing surveillance efforts to prevent further expansion of ZIKV.     

Large climate mitigation potential from adding trees to agricultural lands

While improved management of agricultural landscapes is promoted as a promising natural climate solution, available estimates of the mitigation potential are based on coarse assessments of both agricultural extent and aboveground carbon density. Here we combine 30 meter resolution global maps of aboveground woody carbon, tree cover, and cropland extent, as well as a 1 km resolution map of global pasture land, to estimate the current and potential carbon storage of trees in nonforested portions of agricultural lands. We find that global croplands currently store 3.07 Pg of carbon (C) in aboveground woody biomass (i.e., trees) and pasture lands account for an additional 3.86 Pg C across a combined 3.76 billion ha. We then estimate the climate mitigation potential of multiple scenarios of integration and avoided loss of trees in crop and pasture lands based on region‐specific biomass distributions. We evaluate our findings in the context of nationally determined contributions and find that the majority of potential carbon storage from integration and avoided loss of trees in crop and pasture lands is in countries that do not identify agroforestry as a climate mitigation technique.     

Closing the global ozone yield gap: Quantification and cobenefits for multistress tolerance

Increasing both crop productivity and the tolerance of crops to abiotic and biotic stresses is a major challenge for global food security in our rapidly changing climate. For the first time, we show how the spatial variation and severity of tropospheric ozone effects on yield compare with effects of other stresses on a global scale, and discuss mitigating actions against the negative effects of ozone. We show that the sensitivity to ozone declines in the order soybean > wheat > maize > rice, with genotypic variation in response being most pronounced for soybean and rice. Based on stomatal uptake, we estimate that ozone (mean of 2010–2012) reduces global yield annually by 12.4%, 7.1%, 4.4% and 6.1% for soybean, wheat, rice and maize, respectively (the “ozone yield gaps”), adding up to 227 Tg of lost yield. Our modelling shows that the highest ozone‐induced production losses for soybean are in North and South America whilst for wheat they are in India and China, for rice in parts of India, Bangladesh, China and Indonesia, and for maize in China and the United States. Crucially, we also show that the same areas are often also at risk of high losses from pests and diseases, heat stress and to a lesser extent aridity and nutrient stress. In a solution‐focussed analysis of these results, we provide a crop ideotype with tolerance of multiple stresses (including ozone) and describe how ozone effects could be included in crop breeding programmes. We also discuss altered crop management approaches that could be applied to reduce ozone impacts in the shorter term. Given the severity of ozone effects on staple food crops in areas of the world that are also challenged by other stresses, we recommend increased attention to the benefits that could be gained from addressing the ozone yield gap.     

Global Projections of 21(st) Century Land-Use Changes in Regions Adjacent to Protected Areas

The conservation efficiency of Protected Areas (PA) is influenced by the health and characteristics of the surrounding landscape matrix. Fragmentation of adjacent lands interrupts ecological flows within PAs and will decrease the ability of species to shift their distribution as climate changes. For five periods across the 21(st) century, we assessed changes to the extent of primary land, secondary land, pasture and crop land projected to occur within 50 km buffers surrounding IUCN-designated PAs. Four scenarios of land-use were obtained from the Land-Use Harmonization Project, developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The scenarios project the continued decline of primary lands within buffers surrounding PAs. Substantial losses are projected to occur across buffer regions in the tropical forest biomes of Indo-Malayan and the Temperate Broadleaf forests of the Nearctic. A number of buffer regions are projected to have negligible primary land remaining by 2100, including those in the Afrotropic's Tropical/Subtropical Grassland/Savanna/Shrubland. From 2010-2050, secondary land is projected to increase within most buffer regions, although, as with pasture and crops within tropical and temperate forests, projections from the four land-use scenarios may diverge substantially in magnitude and direction of change. These scenarios demonstrate a range of alternate futures, and show that although effective mitigation strategies may reduce pressure on land surrounding PAs, these areas will contain an increasingly heterogeneous matrix of primary and human-modified landscapes. Successful management of buffer regions will be imperative to ensure effectiveness of PAs and to facilitate climate-induced shifts in species ranges.     

Climate-induced land health risk in farmland systems: A case study of Qarasou sub-basin in Karkheh River Basin

The present study was carried out to investigate the impact of climate change on land suitability for agricultural development in a sub-basin of Karkheh River Basin, Iran. For this, land suitability of the sub-basin was evaluated twice; once regardless of the climate change impact, and again by involving the impact of climate change. Simple Limitation Approach was used to evaluate the suitability of the sub-basin for cultivation of winter wheat. According to the results, around 22.57% (124121.16 ha) of the study area is suitable for cropping while the capability of 39.29% (216086.13 ha) of the sub-basin was evaluated to be poor/moderate for this purpose. In this research, in order to investigate the impact of climate change on farmlands, the changing trend of the four variables of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and radiation were stimulated by the year 2039 using downscaled interpolation of IPCM general circulation model under three emission scenarios of A1B, A2, and B1. The stimulation was done by LARS-WG Software. The overlaying was done once more, but this time using the stimulated values. Comparing the current and stimulated land suitability maps revealed the fact that, in the most pessimistic future under A1B scenario, approximately 15.51% (85288.95 ha) of the study area will lose its capability for farming as a result of an increase of 1.3?C in temperature, and a decrease of 20.43% mm in total precipitation. The research finding emphasizes the risk of climate change on land health for farming purposes.