模拟植物多样性的大尺度分布：从气候和生产力推知的一种可能性（英文）

 鉴于全球植被/生物群区在现状气候条件下已经被很好地模拟并在未来气候变化情景下得到很好的预测,人们有必要和急需模拟大尺度（区域、洲际至全球）植物多样性的分布格局。陆地生物圈模型的发展（从生物地理模型和生物地球化学模型到动态和耦合的植被模型）,气候-生物多样性相互关系和生产力-生物多样性相互关系研究成果的增多,以及基于现有生物多样性调查的全球生物多样性理论和经验制图的进步,加大了模拟大尺度植物多样性格局的可能性。本文的目的是：综述当前气候-生物多样性相互关系和生产力-生物多样性相互关系的主要研究成果以及大尺度     

气候波动和土地覆盖变化对广东省植被净初级生产力的相对影响

为深入理解人类活动对陆地生态系统的影响,采用CASA(Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach)模型估算广东省2000、2005和2010年实际植被净初级生产力(Net primary productivity,NPP),并基于情景模拟法估算气候和土地覆盖类型稳定条件下的植被NPP,对气候波动和土地覆盖变化在植被NPP变化中的相对贡献进行了研究。结果表明:太阳辐射对植被NPP具有显著的正向控制作用,气温与植被NPP表现为显著负相关,降水不是该区域植被生长的限制性因子;各气候因子与植被NPP的相关性具有季节和区域差异性。在气候不变条件下,土地覆盖变化整体上增加了NPP,对NPP变化的相对贡献与城市扩张格局相类似,不同生态区存在差异性,以珠三角区的贡献最大。总之,气候波动对NPP变化的相对贡献较为复杂,取决于气候因子的波动特征以及与NPP的相关性;其它因子(城市热岛、农耕活动和园林管理等)对NPP变化的相对贡献存在很多不确定性,整体上增加了NPP。     

Human modification of the landscape and surface climate in the next fifty years

Human modification of the landscape potentially affects exchanges of energy and water between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. This study develops a possible scenario for land cover in the year 2050 based on results from the IMAGE 2 (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect) model, which projects land‐cover changes in response to demographic and economic activity. We use the land‐cover scenario as a surface boundary condition in a biophysically‐based land‐surface model coupled to a general circulation model for a 15‐years simulation with prescribed sea surface temperature and compare with a control run using current land cover. To assess the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenic land‐cover change relative to the sensitivity to decadal‐scale interannual variations in vegetation density, we also carry out two additional simulations using observed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from relatively low (1982–83) and high (1989–90) years to describe the seasonal phenology of the vegetation. In the past several centuries, large‐scale land‐cover change occurred primarily in temperate latitudes through conversion of forests and grassland to highly productive cropland and pasture. Several studies in the literature indicate that past changes in surface climate resulting from this conversion had a cooling effect owing to changes in vegetation morphology (increased albedo). In contrast, this study indicates that future land‐cover change, likely to occur predominantly in the tropics and subtropics, has a warming effect governed by physiological rather than morphological mechanisms. The physiological mechanism is to reduce carbon assimilation and consequently latent relative to sensible heat flux resulting in surface temperature increases up to 2 °C and drier hydrologic conditions in locations where land cover was altered in the experiment. In addition, in contrast to an observed decrease in diurnal temperature range (DTR) over land expected with greenhouse warming, results here suggest that future land‐cover conversion in tropics could increase the DTR resulting from decreased evaporative cooling during the daytime. For grid cells with altered land cover, the sensitivity of surface temperature to future anthropogenic land‐cover change is generally within the range induced by decadal‐scale interannual variability in vegetation density in temperate latitudes but up to 1.5 °C warmer in the tropics.     

Coupling dynamic models of climate and vegetation

Numerous studies have underscored the importance of terrestrial ecosystems as an integral component of the Earth's climate system. This realization has already led to efforts to link simple equilibrium vegetation models with Atmospheric General Circulation Models through iterative coupling procedures. While these linked models have pointed to several possible climate–vegetation feedback mechanisms, they have been limited by two shortcomings: (i) they only consider the equilibrium response of vegetation to shifting climatic conditions and therefore cannot be used to explore transient interactions between climate and vegetation; and (ii) the representations of vegetation processes and land-atmosphere exchange processes are still treated by two separate models and, as a result, may contain physical or ecological inconsistencies. Here we present, as a proof concept, a more tightly integrated framework for simulating global climate and vegetation interactions. The prototype coupled model consists of the GENESIS (version 2) Atmospheric General Circulation Model and the IBIS (version 1) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. The two models are directly coupled through a common treatment of land surface and ecophysiological processes, which is used to calculate the energy, water, carbon, and momentum fluxes between vegetation, soils, and the atmosphere. On one side of the interface, GENESIS simulates the physics and general circulation of the atmosphere. On the other side, IBIS predicts transient changes in the vegetation structure through changes in the carbon balance and competition among plants within terrestrial ecosystems. As an initial test of this modelling framework, we perform a 30 year simulation in which the coupled model is supplied with modern CO₂ concentrations, observed ocean temperatures, and modern insolation. In this exploratory study, we run the GENESIS atmospheric model at relatively coarse horizontal resolution (4.5° latitude by 7.5° longitude) and IBIS at moderate resolution (2° latitude by 2° longitude). We initialize the models with globally uniform climatic conditions and the modern distribution of potential vegetation cover. While the simulation does not fully reach equilibrium by the end of the run, several general features of the coupled model behaviour emerge. We compare the results of the coupled model against the observed patterns of modern climate. The model correctly simulates the basic zonal distribution of temperature and precipitation, but several important regional biases remain. In particular, there is a significant warm bias in the high northern latitudes, and cooler than observed conditions over the Himalayas, central South America, and north-central Africa. In terms of precipitation, the model simulates drier than observed conditions in much of South America, equatorial Africa and Indonesia, with wetter than observed conditions in northern Africa and China. Comparing the model results against observed patterns of vegetation cover shows that the general placement of forests and grasslands is roughly captured by the model. In addition, the model simulates a roughly correct separation of evergreen and deciduous forests in the tropical, temperate and boreal zones. However, the general patterns of global vegetation cover are only approximately correct: there are still significant regional biases in the simulation. In particular, forest cover is not simulated correctly in large portions of central Canada and southern South America, and grasslands extend too far into northern Africa. These preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility of coupling climate models with fully dynamic representations of the terrestrial biosphere. Continued development of fully coupled climate-vegetation models will facilitate the exploration of a broad range of global change issues, including the potential role of vegetation feedbacks within the climate system, and the impact of climate variability and transient climate change on the terrestrial biosphere.     

土地利用约束下中国东部南北样带生产力和植被分布对全球变化的响应

对现有的区域植被动态模拟模型进行了改进,使之包含了土地利用分布格局对植被和生态系统相关过程的影响.改进后的模型被用于研究中国东部南北样带(NSTEC)植被和净第一性生产力对未来气候变化的响应.模拟结果显示土地利用格局对未来气候条件下植被分布的变迁和生产力形成过程有非常显著的影响.与没有土地利用约束的情形相比较,土地利用作为限制条件缓减了植被类型之间的竞争,从而减少了模拟的样带区域内常绿阔叶林,但增加了模拟灌木和草地的分布.土地利用约束使得模拟得到的当前条件下的净第一性生产力更为接近实际情况,且未来气候条件下的生产力改变量更为可信.对未来CO2倍增条件下7个大气环流模型预测的气候情景的模拟结果表明:落叶阔叶林将显著增加,但针叶林、灌木和草原的分布将下降.未来气候条件下NSTEC样带的净第一性生产力总量将增加.预测样带北部的净第一性生产力的变化范围大于样带南部.温度变化比降水变化对样带的生产力具有更强的控制.     

Contrasting Climatic Controls on the Estimated Productivity of Global Terrestrial Biomes

Net primary productivity (NPP) represents the greatest annual carbon flux from the atmosphere to the biosphere, is an important component of seasonal fluctuations in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and is the most critical biotic component of the global carbon cycle. NPP measures products of major economic and social importance, such as crop yield and forest production. Given that global NPP can not be measured directly, model simulations must provide understanding of its global spatial and temporal dynamics. In this study, we used the biogeochemical model BIOME-BGC to simulate global terrestrial NPP and assessed relative importance of climatic controls (temperature, water availability, and radiation) in limiting NPP in the array of climatic combinations found globally. The degree of limitation on NPP by climatic controls was defined by using an empirical membership function. Results showed that temperature or water availability limited NPP over larger land areas (31% and 52%, respectively) than did radiation limitation (5%). Climatic controls appeared to be important in limiting productivity in most vegetation biomes, except for evergreen broadleaf forests. Nevertheless, there were areas of the globe (12%) where none of the climatic factors appeared to limit NPP. Our research has suggested that other environmental controls, such as nutrient availability or biological constraints, should then be considered. The wide distribution of NPP between zero and the upper boundary values in the correlation plots indicated that multivariate environmental balances, not single limiting factors, controlled biospheric productivity. Received 27 August 1997; accepted 19 November 1997.     

Saturation response of enhanced vegetation productivity attributes to intricate interactions

Evidence for the multifaceted responses of terrestrial ecosystems has been shown by the weakening of CO₂ fertilization-induced and warming-controlled productivity gains. The intricate relationship between vegetation productivity and various environmental controls still remains elusive spatially. Here several inherent preponderances make China a natural experimental setting to investigate the interaction and relative contributions of five drivers to gross primary productivity for the period from 1982 to 2018 (i.e., elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, climate change, nutrient availability, anthropogenic land use change, and soil moisture) by coupling multiple long-term datasets. Despite a strikingly prominent enhancement of vegetation productivity in China, it exhibits similar saturation responses to the aforementioned environmental drivers (elevated CO₂, climatic factors, and soil moisture). The CO₂ fertilization-dominated network explains the long-term variations in vegetation productivity in humid regions, but its effect is clearly attenuated or even absent in arid and alpine environments controlled by climate and soil moisture. Divergence in interactions also provides distinct evidence that water availability plays an essential role in limiting the potential effects of climate change and elevated CO₂ concentrations on vegetation productivity. Unprecedented industrialization and dramatic surface changes may have breached critical thresholds of terrestrial ecosystems under the diverse natural environment and thus forced a shift from a period dominated by CO₂ fertilization to a period with nonlinear interactions. These findings suggest that future benefits in terrestrial ecosystems are likely to be counteracted by uncertainties in the complicated network, implying an increasing reliance on human societies to combat potential risks. Our results therefore highlight the need to account for the intricate interactions globally and thus incorporate them into mitigation and adaptation policies.     

土地利用约束下中国东部南北样带生产力和植被分布对全球变化的响应

对现有的区域植被动态模拟模型进行了改进,使之包含了土地利用分布格局对植被和生态系统相关过程的影响。改进后的模型被用地研究中国东部南北样带(NSTEC)植被和净第一性生产力对未来气候变化的响应。模拟结果显示土地利用格局对未来气候条件下植被分布的变迁和生产力形成过程有非常显著的影响。与没有土地利用约束的情形相比较,土地利用作为限制条件缓减了植被类型之间的竞争,从而减少了模拟的样带区域内常绿阔叶林,但增加了模拟灌木和草地的分布。土地利用约束使得模拟得到的当前条件下的净第一性生产力更为接近实际情况,且未来气候条件下的生产力改变量更为可信。对未来CO2倍增条件下7个大气环流模型预测的气候情景的模拟结果表明：落叶阔叶林将显著增加,但针叶林、灌木和草原的分布将下降。未来气候条件下NSTEC样带的净第一性生产力总量将增加。预测样带北部的净第一性生产力的变化范围大于样带南部。温度变化比降水变化对样带的生产力具有更强的控制。     

中国陆地生态系统对全球变化的敏感性研究

根据自然植被净第一性生产力综合模型和农业净第一性生产力模型计算了我国自然植被及农作物的净第一性生产力,结果表明:在所有可能的气候条件下,我国陆地生态系统的生产力表现出由东南向西北递减的趋势及明显的条带状分布,并在新疆地区形成明显的低值区。在年平均气温升高2℃且降水不变的情况下,湿润地区生产力增加幅度最大,约增加1～2tDW·hm~(-2)·a~(-1);在年平均气温升高2℃、年降水增加20％的情况下,干旱、半干旱地区生产力增加幅度最大,约增加0.5～3.0tDW·hm~(-2)·a~(-1);在年平均气温升高2℃、年降水减少20％的情况下,湿润地区生产力提高约0.5～1.0tDW·hm~(-2)·a~(-1),干旱、半干旱地区生产力降低约0.5～2.0tDW·hm~(-2)·a~(-1)。     

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate,atmospheric CO2, and land use

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO₂ levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias‐corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land‐use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO₂ fertilization, land‐use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO₂ fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate‐induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land‐use change and climate‐driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO₂ impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land‐use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors – climate change, CO₂ fertilization effects, fire, and land use – to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.     

Spatial relationship between climatologies and changes in global vegetation activity

Vegetation forms a main component of the terrestrial biosphere and plays a crucial role in land‐cover and climate‐related studies. Activity of vegetation systems is commonly quantified using remotely sensed vegetation indices (VI). Extensive reports on temporal trends over the past decades in time series of such indices can be found in literature. However, little remains known about the processes underlying these changes at large spatial scales. In this study, we aimed at quantifying the spatial relationship between changes in potential climatic growth constraints (i.e. temperature, precipitation and incident solar radiation) and changes in vegetation activity (1982–2008). We demonstrate an additive spatial model with 0.5° resolution, consisting of a regression component representing climate‐associated effects and a spatially correlated field representing the combined influence of other factors, including land‐use change. Little over 50% of the spatial variance could be attributed to changes in climatologies; conspicuously, many greening trends and browning hotspots in Argentina and Australia. The nonassociated model component may contain large‐scale human interventions, feedback mechanisms or natural effects, which were not captured by the climatologies. Browning hotspots in this component were especially found in subequatorial Africa. On the scale of land‐cover types, strongest relationships between climatologies and vegetation activity were found in forests, including indications for browning under warming conditions (analogous to the divergence issue discussed in dendroclimatology).     

Fuel shapes the fire–climate relationship: evidence from Mediterranean ecosystems

Aim To understand how vegetation mediates the interplay between fire and climate. Specifically, we predict that neither the switching of climatic conditions to high flammability nor the sensitivity of fire to such conditions are universal, but rather depend on fuel (vegetation) structure, which in turn changes with productivity. Location An aridity/productivity gradient on the Iberian Peninsula (Mediterranean Basin). Methods We defined 13 regions distributed along an aridity gradient, which thus differ in productivity and fuel structure. We then assessed the changes in the temporal fire–climate relationship across regions. Specifically, for each region we estimated three variables: the aridity level for switching to flammable conditions (i.e. climatic conditions conducive to fire), the frequency of these flammable conditions and the area burnt under such conditions. These variables were then related to regional aridity and fuel structure indicators. Results In mediterranean ecosystems, the aridity level for switching to flammable conditions increased along the aridity gradient. Differences in fire activity between regions were not explained by the frequency of flammable conditions but by the sensitivity of fire to such conditions, which was higher in wetter and more productive regions. Main conclusions Under mediterranean climatic conditions, fuel structure is more relevant in driving fire activity than the frequency of climatic conditions conducive to fire. At a global scale, fuel also drives the fire–climate relationship because it determines the climatic (aridity) threshold for switching to flammable conditions. Our results emphasize the role of landscape structure in shaping current and future fire–climate relationships at a regional scale, and suggest that future changes in the fire regime (i.e. under global warming) might be different from what it is predicted by climate alone.     

Biogeographic historical legacies in the net primary productivity of Northern Hemisphere forests

It has been suggested that biogeographic historical legacies in plant diversity may influence ecosystem functioning. This is expected because of known diversity effects on ecosystem functions, and impacts of historical events such as past climatic changes on plant diversity. However, empirical evidence for a link between biogeographic history and present‐day ecosystem functioning is still limited. Here, we explored the relationships between Late‐Quaternary climate instability, species‐pool size, local species and functional diversity, and the net primary productivity (NPP) of Northern Hemisphere forests using structural equation modelling. Our study confirms that past climate instability has negative effects on plant functional diversity and through that on NPP, after controlling for present‐day climate, soil conditions, stand biomass and age. We conclude that global models of terrestrial plant productivity need to consider the biogeographical context to improve predictions of plant productivity and feedbacks with the climate system.     

Priorities of satellite monitoring of boreal ecosystems

The processes of global changes of climate and biosphere interplay and manifest themselves at the most in the boreal zone of the planet, in particular in Eurasia. Satellite methods of remote observation of the Earth permit a regular monitoring of key characteristics of the state and the time course of changes of terrestrial geosystems necessary to estimate, to understand the mechanism of, and to forecast future climatic and biospheric changes. In the paper, the priority trends of satellite monitoring of terrestrial ecosystems are analyzed and its potential is estimated, with the available satellite instruments and methods of data analysis taken into account. The system developed in Russia for monitoring the state and the time course of changes of terrestrial ecosystems makes it possible to obtain estimates of many important characteristics that reflect the structure of the vegetable cover, scales of damage of vegetation by fires and forest felling, and regimes of use of agricultural lands in North Eurasia or the boreal zone of the planet.     

Human-dominated land uses favour species affiliated with more extreme climates,especially in the tropics

Rapid human population growth has driven conversion of land for uses such as agriculture, transportation and buildings. The removal of natural vegetation changes local climate, with human-dominated land uses often warmer and drier than natural habitats. Yet, it remains an open question whether land-use changes influence the composition of ecological assemblages in a direction consistent with the mechanism of local climatic change. Here, we used a global database of terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians) to test whether human-dominated land uses systematically favour species with distinctive realised climatic niches. We 1) explored the responses of community-average temperature and precipitation niches to different types of land use, 2) quantified the abundances of species with distinctive climatic niches across land uses and 3) tested for differences in emergent patterns in communities from tropical versus temperate latitudes. We found that, in comparison to species from undisturbed natural habitats, the average animal found in human-altered habitats lives in areas with higher maximum and lower minimum temperatures and higher maximum and lower minimum precipitation levels. We further found that tropical assemblages diverged more strongly than temperate assemblages between natural and human-altered habitats, possibly because tropical species are more sensitive to climatic conditions. These results strongly implicate the role of land-use change in favouring species affiliated with more extreme climatic conditions, thus systematically reshaping the composition of terrestrial biological assemblages. Our findings have the potential to inform species' vulnerability assessments and highlight the importance of preserving local climate refugia.     

自然植被净第一性生产力模型初探

本文根据植物的生理生态学特点及联系能量平衡方程和水量平衡方程的区域蒸散模式建立了联系植物生理生态学特点和水热平衡关系的植物的净第一性生产力模型：该模型的建立为宏观地确定地带性景观的生产潜力、植物净第一性生产力的区域分布和全球分布,以及全球变化的影响提供了理论基础,对于合理地利用气候资源,扬长避短,充分发挥气候生产潜力,最大限度地提高植物的产量具有重要的意义。     

内蒙古主要植被类型与气候因子关系的研究

利用地理信息系统工具,以最新的植被类型图为依据,在统计、建模和空间模拟区域气候因子的基础上,对内蒙古主要植被类型与气候的关系进行了分析,并获得适宜的气候范围。结果表明,内蒙古植被空间分布表现出明显的规律性。一方面,随着距离海洋的远近变化,无论是地带性植被,还是山地垂直带、沙地及低湿地植被,从东向西均反映出地带分异,水分对于这种东西向更替更为重要。另一方面,热量的差异导致纬向上的变化。此外,热量成为     

Ecosystem feedbacks on climate at the landscape scale

Vegetation controls aspects of climate at all scales. These controls operate through fluxes of mass (water vapour, particulates, trace gases, condensation nuclei, and ice nuclei) and energy (latent and sensible heat, radiative exchanges, and momentum dissipation) between the biosphere and the atmosphere. The role these fluxes play in controlling minimum and maximum temperature, temperature range, rainfall, and precipitation processes are detailed. On the hemispheric scale, the importance of evapotranspiration, vegetation surface roughness, and vegetation albedo in the current generation of atmospheric general circulation models is reviewed. Finally, I assess at the planetary scale the global climate effects of biogenic emissions that are well mixed throughout the troposphere. I show that daily maximum and minimum temperatures are, in part, controlled by the emission of non-methane hydrocarbons and transpired water vapour. In many regions, a substantial fraction of the rainfall arises from upstream evapotranspiration rather than from oceanic evaporation. Biosphere evapotranspiration, surface roughness, and albedo are key controls in the general circulation of the atmosphere: climate models that lack adequate specifications for these biosphere attributes fail. The biosphere modulates climate at all scales.     

Sources of Variability in Net Primary Production Predictions at a Regional Scale: A Comparison Using PnET-II and TEM 4.0 in Northeastern US Forests

Because model predictions at continental and global scales are necessarily based on broad characterizations of vegetation, soils, and climate, estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes made by global terrestrial biosphere models may not be accurate for every region. At the regional scale, we suggest that attention can be focused more clearly on understanding the relative strengths of predicted net primary productivity (NPP) limitation by energy, water, and nutrients. We evaluate the sources of variability among model predictions of NPP with a regional-scale comparison between estimates made by PnET-II (a forest ecosystem process model previously applied to the northeastern region) and TEM 4.0 (a terrestrial biosphere model typically applied to the globe) for the northeastern US. When the same climate, vegetation, and soil data sets were used to drive both models, regional average NPP predictions made by PnET-II and TEM were remarkably similar, and at the biome level, model predictions agreed fairly well with NPP estimates developed from field measurements. However, TEM 4.0 predictions were more sensitive to regional variations in temperature as a result of feedbacks between temperature and belowground N availability. In PnET-II, the direct link between transpiration and photosynthesis caused substantial water stress in hardwood and pine forest types with increases in solar radiation; predicted water stress was relieved substantially when soil water holding capacity (WHC) was increased. Increasing soil WHC had little effect on TEM 4.0 predictions because soil water storage was already sufficient to meet plant demand with baseline WHC values, and because predicted N availability under baseline conditions in this region was not limited by water. Because NPP predictions were closely keyed to forest cover type, the relative coverage of low- versus high-productivity forests at both fine and coarse resolutions was an important determinant of regional NPP predictions. Therefore, changes in grid cell size and differences in the methods used to aggregate from fine to coarse resolution were important to NPP predictions insofar as they changed the relative proportions of forest cover. We suggest that because the small patches of high-elevation spruce-fir forest in this region are substantially less productive than forests in the remainder of the region, more accurate NPP predictions will result if models applied to this region use land cover input data sets that retain as much fine-resolution forest type variability as possible. The differences among model responses to variations in climate and soil WHC data sets suggest that the models will respond quite differently to scenarios of future climate. A better understanding of the dynamic interactions between water stress, N availability, and forest productivity in this region will enable models to make more accurate predictions of future carbon stocks and fluxes. Received 19 June 1998; accepted 25 June 1999.     

2020—2050年CO2施肥效应促进全球陆地生态系统碳吸收

CO₂施肥效应是全球变绿的主要原因,随着大气中CO₂浓度的持续增加,预估未来气候变化条件下,CO₂施肥效应对陆地生态系统的影响对减缓全球气候变化具有重大意义。基于未来气候情景数据和Farquhar模型,并结合生态过程模型BEPS(Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator),定量化研究2020—2050年CO₂施肥效应对全球叶面积指数(LAI)和总初级生产力(GPP)的影响。研究结果显示2020—2050年,在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下,CO₂施肥效应导致的LAI年际变化趋势分别为0.002、0.003和0.005 m^-2m^-2a^-1;三个气候情景下CO₂施肥效应对LAI的影响为CO₂每增加0.1%,LAI平均增加约8.1%—9.2%,由此导致GPP对应增加7.9%—14.6%;由CO₂施...