土地利用约束下中国东部南北样带生产力和植被分布对全球变化的响应

对现有的区域植被动态模拟模型进行了改进，使之包含了土地利用分布格局对植被和生态系统相关过程的影响。改进后的模型被用地研究中国东部南北样带(NSTEC)植被和净第一性生产力对未来气候变化的响应。模拟结果显示土地利用格局对未来气候条件下植被分布的变迁和生产力形成过程有非常显著的影响。与没有土地利用约束的情形相比较，土地利用作为限制条件缓减了植被类型之间的竞争，从而减少了模拟的样带区域内常绿阔叶林，但增加了模拟灌木和草地的分布。土地利用约束使得模拟得到的当前条件下的净第一性生产力更为接近实际情况，且未来气候条件下的生产力改变量更为可信。对未来CO2倍增条件下7个大气环流模型预测的气候情景的模拟结果表明：落叶阔叶林将显著增加，但针叶林、灌木和草原的分布将下降。未来气候条件下NSTEC样带的净第一性生产力总量将增加。预测样带北部的净第一性生产力的变化范围大于样带南部。温度变化比降水变化对样带的生产力具有更强的控制。

Responses of Vegetation and Primary Production in North-South Transect of Eastern China to Global Change Under Land Use Constraint

A regional model of vegetation dynamics was revised to include land use as a constraint to vegetation dynamics and primary production processes. The model was applied to a forest transect in eastern China (NSTEC, North-South transect of eastern China) to investigate the responses of the transect to possible future climatic change. The simulation result indicated that land use has profound effects on vegetation transition and primary production. In particular, land use reduced competition among vegetation classes and tended to result in less evergreen broadleaf forests but more shrubs and grasses in the transect area. The simulation runs with land use constraint also gave much more realistic estimation about net primary productivity as well as responses of the productivity to future climatic change along the transect. The simulations for future climate scenarios projected by general circulation models (GCM) with doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration predicted that deciduous broadleaf forests would increase, but conifer forests, shrubs and grasses would decrease. The overall effects of doubling CO2 and climatic changes on NSTEC were to produce an increased net primary productivity (NPP) at equilibrium for all seven GCM scenarios. The predicted range of NPP variation in the north is much larger than that in the south.