Efficiencies of different genes and different tree-building methods in recovering a known vertebrate phylogeny

The relative efficiencies of different protein-coding genes of the mitochondrial genome and different tree-building methods in recovering a known vertebrate phylogeny (two whale species, cow, rat, mouse, opossum, chicken, frog, and three bony fish species) was evaluated. The tree-building methods examined were the neighbor joining (NJ), minimum evolution (ME), maximum parsimony (MP), and maximum likelihood (ML), and both nucleotide sequences and deduced amino acid sequences were analyzed. Generally speaking, amino acid sequences were better than nucleotide sequences in obtaining the true tree (topology) or trees close to the true tree. However, when only first and second codon positions data were used, nucleotide sequences produced reasonably good trees. Among the 13 genes examined, Nd5 produced the true tree in all tree-building methods or algorithms for both amino acid and nucleotide sequence data. Genes Cytb and Nd4 also produced the correct tree in most tree-building algorithms when amino acid sequence data were used. By contrast, Co2, Nd1, and Nd41 showed a poor performance. In general, large genes produced better results, and when the entire set of genes was used, all tree-building methods generated the true tree. In each tree-building method, several distance measures or algorithms were used, but all these distance measures or algorithms produced essentially the same results. The ME method, in which many different topologies are examined, was no better than the NJ method, which generates a single final tree. Similarly, an ML method, in which many topologies are examined, was no better than the ML star decomposition algorithm that generates a single final tree. In ML the best substitution model chosen by using the Akaike information criterion produced no better results than simpler substitution models. These results question the utility of the currently used optimization principles in phylogenetic construction. Relatively simple methods such as the NJ and ML star decomposition algorithms seem to produce as good results as those obtained by more sophisticated methods. The efficiencies of the NJ, ME, MP, and ML methods in obtaining the correct tree were nearly the same when amino acid sequence data were used. The most important factor in constructing reliable phylogenetic trees seems to be the number of amino acids or nucleotides used.      

分子系统进化关系分析的一种新方法--贝叶斯法在硬蜱属中的应用

距离矩阵邻接法、最大简约法和最大似然法是重建生物系统关系的3种主要方法。普遍认为最大似然法在原理上优于前二种方法，但其计算复杂费时。由于现行计算机的能力尚达不到其要求而实用性差，特别是在处理大数据集样本(即大于25个分类单元)时，用此方法几乎不可能。新近提出的贝叶斯法(Bayesianmethod)既保留了最大似然法的基本原理，又引进了马尔科夫链的蒙特卡洛方法，并使计算时间大大缩短。本文用贝叶斯法对硬蜱属(Ixodes)19个种的线粒体16S rDNA片段进行了系统进化分析。从总体上看，分析结果与现有的基于形态学的分类体系基本吻合。但与现存的假说相反，莱姆病的主要宿主蓖籽硬蜱复合种组并非单系。通过比较贝叶斯法与其它三种方法的结果，我们认为贝叶斯法是一种系统进化分析的好方法，它既能根据分子进化的现有理论和各种模型用概率重建系统进化关系，又克服了最大似然法计算速度慢、不适用于大数据集样本的缺陷。贝叶斯法根据后验概率直观地表示系统进化关系的分析结果，不需要用自引导法进行检验。可以预料，贝叶斯法将会被广泛地应用到系统进化分析上[动物学报49(3)：380—388，2003]。     

基于孕激素受体基因的类人猿亚目的分子系统学研究

通过对类人猿亚目中部分种类的孕激素受体基因进行分析,重建类人猿亚目的 系统发育关系.扩增并测定了来源于14个属的类人猿亚目物种的孕激素受体编码区序列,并基于这一序列数据,分别采用邻接法、最大简约法和最大似然法重建了系统发育关系.除了阔鼻下目,3种方法构建的系统发生树的拓扑结构类似且各节点支持率高.重建的人猿超科和猴超科内部亲缘关系支持多数人所认可的分类系统.本研究为黑猩猩和人的姐妹群关系提供了证据,提示黑猩猩比大猩猩或其他猿猴更接近人类.阔鼻下目中蜘蛛猴科、卷尾猴科和僧面猴科三者之间的系统发育关系在本研究中未得到很好辨析.     

Bayesian phylogenetic inference using DNA sequences: a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

An improved Bayesian method is presented for estimating phylogenetic trees using DNA sequence data. The birth-death process with species sampling is used to specify the prior distribution of phylogenies and ancestral speciation times, and the posterior probabilities of phylogenies are used to estimate the maximum posterior probability (MAP) tree. Monte Carlo integration is used to integrate over the ancestral speciation times for particular trees. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to generate the set of trees with the highest posterior probabilities. Methods are described for an empirical Bayesian analysis, in which estimates of the speciation and extinction rates are used in calculating the posterior probabilities, and a hierarchical Bayesian analysis, in which these parameters are removed from the model by an additional integration. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method avoids the requirement of our earlier method for calculating MAP trees to sum over all possible topologies (which limited the number of taxa in an analysis to about five). The methods are applied to analyze DNA sequences for nine species of primates, and the MAP tree, which is identical to a maximum-likelihood estimate of topology, has a probability of approximately 95%.      

Effects of branch length uncertainty on Bayesian posterior probabilities for phylogenetic hypotheses

In Bayesian phylogenetics, confidence in evolutionary relationships is expressed as posterior probability--the probability that a tree or clade is true given the data, evolutionary model, and prior assumptions about model parameters. Model parameters, such as branch lengths, are never known in advance; Bayesian methods incorporate this uncertainty by integrating over a range of plausible values given an assumed prior probability distribution for each parameter. Little is known about the effects of integrating over branch length uncertainty on posterior probabilities when different priors are assumed. Here, we show that integrating over uncertainty using a wide range of typical prior assumptions strongly affects posterior probabilities, causing them to deviate from those that would be inferred if branch lengths were known in advance; only when there is no uncertainty to integrate over does the average posterior probability of a group of trees accurately predict the proportion of correct trees in the group. The pattern of branch lengths on the true tree determines whether integrating over uncertainty pushes posterior probabilities upward or downward. The magnitude of the effect depends on the specific prior distributions used and the length of the sequences analyzed. Under realistic conditions, however, even extraordinarily long sequences are not enough to prevent frequent inference of incorrect clades with strong support. We found that across a range of conditions, diffuse priors--either flat or exponential distributions with moderate to large means--provide more reliable inferences than small-mean exponential priors. An empirical Bayes approach that fixes branch lengths at their maximum likelihood estimates yields posterior probabilities that more closely match those that would be inferred if the true branch lengths were known in advance and reduces the rate of strongly supported false inferences compared with fully Bayesian integration.     

从核rDNA序列探讨隙蛛亚科Coelotinae的分类地位

隙蛛亚科Coelotinae主要分布于东亚地区,其中我国的已有种类占到全世界种数的一半以上,因此对于我国隙蛛类蜘蛛的研究已经成为世界暗蛛科研究的重点之一。隙蛛亚科属于无筛器类群,于1893年,由Cambridge以隙蛛属为模式属而建立,归属于无筛器的漏斗蛛科。之后,虽然经历了数次修订     

Frequentist properties of Bayesian posterior probabilities of phylogenetic trees under simple and complex substitution models

What does the posterior probability of a phylogenetic tree mean?This simulation study shows that Bayesian posterior probabilities have the meaning that is typically ascribed to them; the posterior probability of a tree is the probability that the tree is correct, assuming that the model is correct. At the same time, the Bayesian method can be sensitive to model misspecification, and the sensitivity of the Bayesian method appears to be greater than the sensitivity of the nonparametric bootstrap method (using maximum likelihood to estimate trees). Although the estimates of phylogeny obtained by use of the method of maximum likelihood or the Bayesian method are likely to be similar, the assessment of the uncertainty of inferred trees via either bootstrapping (for maximum likelihood estimates) or posterior probabilities (for Bayesian estimates) is not likely to be the same. We suggest that the Bayesian method be implemented with the most complex models of those currently available, as this should reduce the chance that the method will concentrate too much probability on too few trees.     

Relative efficiencies of the maximum-likelihood, neighbor-joining, and maximum-parsimony methods when substitution rate varies with site

The relative efficiencies of the maximum-likelihood (ML), neighbor- joining (NJ), and maximum-parsimony (MP) methods in obtaining the correct topology and in estimating the branch lengths for the case of four DNA sequences were studied by computer simulation, under the assumption either that there is variation in substitution rate among different nucleotide sites or that there is no variation. For the NJ method, several different distance measures (Jukes-Cantor, Kimura two- parameter, and gamma distances) were used, whereas for the ML method three different transition/transversion ratios (R) were used. For the MP method, both the standard unweighted parsimony and the dynamically weighted parsimony methods were used. The results obtained are as follows: (1) When the R value is high, dynamically weighted parsimony is more efficient than unweighted parsimony in obtaining the correct topology. (2) However, both weighted and unweighted parsimony methods are generally less efficient than the NJ and ML methods even in the case where the MP method gives a consistent tree. (3) When all the assumptions of the ML method are satisfied, this method is slightly more efficient than the NJ method. However, when the assumptions are not satisfied, the NJ method with gamma distances is slightly better in obtaining the correct topology than is the ML method. In general, the two methods show more or less the same performance. The NJ method may give a correct topology even when the distance measures used are not unbiased estimators of nucleotide substitutions. (4) Branch length estimates of a tree with the correct topology are affected more easily than topology by violation of the assumptions of the mathematical model used, for both the ML and the NJ methods. Under certain conditions, branch lengths are seriously overestimated or underestimated. The MP method often gives serious underestimates for certain branches. (5) Distance measures that generate the correct topology, with high probability, do not necessarily give good estimates of branch lengths. (6) The likelihood-ratio test and the confidence-limit test, in Felsenstein's DNAML, for examining the statistical of branch length estimates are quite sensitive to violation of the assumptions and are generally too liberal to be used for actual data. Rzhetsky and Nei's branch length test is less sensitive to violation of the assumptions than is Felsenstein's test. (7) When the extent of sequence divergence is < or = 5% and when > or = 1,000 nucleotides are used, all three methods show essentially the same efficiency in obtaining the correct topology and in estimating branch lengths.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)      

Probability distribution of molecular evolutionary trees: A new method of phylogenetic inference

A new method is presented for inferring evolutionary trees using nucleotide sequence data. The birth-death process is used as a model of speciation and extinction to specify the prior distribution of phylogenies and branching times. Nucleotide substitution is modeled by a continuous-time Markov process. Parameters of the branching model and the substitution model are estimated by maximum likelihood. The posterior probabilities of different phylogenies are calculated and the phylogeny with the highest posterior probability is chosen as the best estimate of the evolutionary relationship among species. We refer to this as the maximum posterior probability (MAP) tree. The posterior probability provides a natural measure of the reliability of the estimated phylogeny. Two example data sets are analyzed to infer the phylogenetic relationship of human, chimpanzee, gorilla, and orangutan. The best trees estimated by the new method are the same as those from the maximum likelihood analysis of separate topologies, but the posterior probabilities are quite different from the bootstrap proportions. The results of the method are found to be insensitive to changes in the rate parameter of the branching process. Correspondence to: Z. Yang     

基于COⅠ部分序列对皿蛛科盖蛛属(Linyphiidae,Neriene)几种蜘蛛亲缘关系的研究

将自测的皿蛛科Linyphiidae盖蛛属Netiene 15种蜘蛛与从GenBank中下载的1种盖蛛的COⅠmtDNA序列片段进行了同源性比较,以皿蛛科朱氏盾蛛Frontinella zhui的作为外群,用NJ、MP、ML和贝叶斯法构建了分子系统树。在所比较的818bp的序列中,有371个变异位点,143个简约信息位点;A、T、G、C的平均含量为23．1％、42．9％、17．8％、16．2％,所有种类的A＋T含量比较高,平均为66．0％。分子系统树基本支持已有的形态学研究,但鹤嘴盖蛛Nerien macella却没有被归入哈氏盖蛛组,可能是由于鹤嘴盖蛛与同组其他3种蜘蛛属于不同的动物地理区系所致;分析结果同时支持将中华盖蛛Neriene sinensis和黑斑盖蛛Neriene nigripectoris归入盾形盖蛛组。     

Bayes or bootstrap? A simulation study comparing the performance of Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and bootstrapping in assessing phylogenetic confidence

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling has become increasingly popular in phylogenetics as a method for both estimating the maximum likelihood topology and for assessing nodal confidence. Despite the growing use of posterior probabilities, the relationship between the Bayesian measure of confidence and the most commonly used confidence measure in phylogenetics, the nonparametric bootstrap proportion, is poorly understood. We used computer simulation to investigate the behavior of three phylogenetic confidence methods: Bayesian posterior probabilities calculated via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling (BMCMC-PP), maximum likelihood bootstrap proportion (ML-BP), and maximum parsimony bootstrap proportion (MP-BP). We simulated the evolution of DNA sequence on 17-taxon topologies under 18 evolutionary scenarios and examined the performance of these methods in assigning confidence to correct monophyletic and incorrect monophyletic groups, and we examined the effects of increasing character number on support value. BMCMC-PP and ML-BP were often strongly correlated with one another but could provide substantially different estimates of support on short internodes. In contrast, BMCMC-PP correlated poorly with MP-BP across most of the simulation conditions that we examined. For a given threshold value, more correct monophyletic groups were supported by BMCMC-PP than by either ML-BP or MP-BP. When threshold values were chosen that fixed the rate of accepting incorrect monophyletic relationship as true at 5%, all three methods recovered most of the correct relationships on the simulated topologies, although BMCMC-PP and ML-BP performed better than MP-BP. BMCMC-PP was usually a less biased predictor of phylogenetic accuracy than either bootstrapping method. BMCMC-PP provided high support values for correct topological bipartitions with fewer characters than was needed for nonparametric bootstrap.     

线蛱蝶亚科蝶类部分类群线粒体COI基因的分子系统发生分析

以线粒体细胞色素氧化酶I（COI）基因作分子标记,对线蛱蝶亚科蝴蝶进行序列测定．序列分析的结果表明．经比对和处理后的序列总长度是645bp,其中有199个变异位点,147个简约信息位点;所编码的氨基酸序列中有18个变异位点,7个信息位点．A＋T平均含量为69．6％,G＋C平均含量为30．4％,碱基组成出现AT偏斜．以蛱蝶亚科及秀蛱蝶亚科物种为外类群,用NJ、MP及贝叶斯法重建了该亚科的系统发生树,探讨了它们主要类群间的系统发生关系．分子系统树显示,线蛱蝶亚科由以下3大支系：环蛱蝶族＋翠蛱蝶族、线蛱蝶族、丽蛱蝶族构成;其中,环蛱蝶族为单系群（NJ树也支持线蛱蝶族的单系性）;翠蛱蝶族与环蛱蝶族亲缘关系较近：丽蛱蝶族可能是该亚科较早分化出的一支．     

Phylogenetic relationships of Malaysia’s long-tailed macaques,Macaca fascicularis,based on cytochrome b sequences

Phylogenetic relationships among Malaysia’s long-tailed macaques have yet to be established, despite abundant genetic studies of the species worldwide. The aims of this study are to examine the phylogenetic relationships of Macaca fascicularis in Malaysia and to test its classification as a morphological subspecies. A total of 25 genetic samples of M. fascicularis yielding 383 bp of Cytochrome b (Cyt b) sequences were used in phylogenetic analysis along with one sample each of M. nemestrina and M. arctoides used as outgroups. Sequence character analysis reveals that Cyt b locus is a highly conserved region with only 23% parsimony informative character detected among ingroups. Further analysis indicates a clear separation between populations originating from different regions; the Malay Peninsula versus Borneo Insular, the East Coast versus West Coast of the Malay Peninsula, and the island versus mainland Malay Peninsula populations. Phylogenetic trees (NJ, MP and Bayesian) portray a consistent clustering paradigm as Borneo’s population was distinguished from Peninsula’s population (99% and 100% bootstrap value in NJ and MP respectively and 1.00 posterior probability in Bayesian trees). The East coast population was separated from other Peninsula populations (64% in NJ, 66% in MP and 0.53 posterior probability in Bayesian). West coast populations were divided into 2 clades: the North-South (47%/54% in NJ, 26/26% in MP and 1.00/0.80 posterior probability in Bayesian) and Island-Mainland (93% in NJ, 90% in MP and 1.00 posterior probability in Bayesian). The results confirm the previous morphological assignment of 2 subspecies, M. f. fascicularis and M. f. argentimembris, in the Malay Peninsula. These populations should be treated as separate genetic entities in order to conserve the genetic diversity of Malaysia’s M. fascicularis. These findings are crucial in aiding the conservation management and translocation process of M. fascicularis populations in Malaysia.     

基于线粒体ND1和CO1基因序列探讨锯眼蝶-亚科主要类群的系统发生关系

研究测定了锯眼蝶亚科4族、10属共20个国产代表种的线粒体ND1和COI基因的部分序列,结合从GenBank中获得的4个国外产种类的同源序列,以凤蝶科的迪洛尔娟凤蝶、丝带凤蝶,以及娟蝶科的西猛娟蝶为外类群,通过邻接法、最大简约法、最大似然法和贝叶斯法重建了分子系统树,分析了该亚科及其主要类群的系统发生关系。分析结果表明：帻眼蝶族和锯眼蝶族具有较近的亲缘关系;黛眼蝶族不是单系群,该族中的黛眼蝶属、荫眼蝶属与眉眼蝶族具有较近的亲缘关系,带眼蝶属、藏眼蝶属、毛眼蝶属和帕眼蝶属聚合为一个独立的支系,其中带眼蝶属和藏眼蝶属在所有的分析方法中均以100%的置信度（BP=100%, PP=1.00）相聚合,笔者倾向于将它们合并为一属。     

Molecular phylogeny of oribatid mites (Oribatida, Acari): evidence for multiple radiations of parthenogenetic lineages

Nucleotide sequences of the D3 expansion segment and its flanking regions of the 28S rDNA gene were used to evaluate phylogenetic relationships among representative sexual and asexual oribatid mites (Oribatida, Acariformes). The aim of this study was to investigate the hypothesis that oribatid mites consist of species-rich clusters of asexual species that may have radiated while being parthenogenetic. Furthermore, the systematic position of the astigmate mites (Astigmata, Acariformes) which have been hypothesised to represent a paedomorphic lineage within the oribatid mites, is investigated. This is the first phylogenetic tree for oribatid mites s.l. (incl. Astigmata) based on nucleotide sequences. Intraspecific genetic variation in the D3 region was very low, confirming the hypothesis that this region is a good species marker. Results from neighbour joining (NJ) and maximum parsimony (MP) algorithms indicate that several species-rich parthenogenetic groups like Camisiidae, Nanhermanniidae and Malaconothridae are monophyletic, consistent with the hypothesis that some oribatid mite groups diversified despite being parthenogenetic. The MP and maximum likelihood (ML) method indicated that the D3 region is a good tool for elucidating the relationship of oribatid mite species on a small scale(genera, families) but is not reliable for large-scale taxonomy, because branches from the NJ algorithm collapsed in the MP and ML tree. In all trees calculated by different algorithms the Astigmata clustered within the oribatid mites, as proposed earlier.     

Strange bayes indeed: uniform topological priors imply non-uniform clade priors

While Bayesian analysis has become common in phylogenetics, the effects of topological prior probabilities on tree inference have not been investigated. In Bayesian analyses, the prior probability of topologies is almost always considered equal for all possible trees, and clade support is calculated from the majority rule consensus of the approximated posterior distribution of topologies. These uniform priors on tree topologies imply non-uniform prior probabilities of clades, which are dependent on the number of taxa in a clade as well as the number of taxa in the analysis. As such, uniform topological priors do not model ignorance with respect to clades. Here, we demonstrate that Bayesian clade support, bootstrap support, and jackknife support from 17 empirical studies are significantly and positively correlated with non-uniform clade priors resulting from uniform topological priors. Further, we demonstrate that this effect disappears for bootstrap and jackknife when data sets are free from character conflict, but remains pronounced for Bayesian clade supports, regardless of tree shape. Finally, we propose the use of a Bayes factor to account for the fact that uniform topological priors do not model ignorance with respect to clade probability.     

Phylogenetic relationships of agaric fungi based on nuclear large subunit ribosomal DNA sequences

Phylogenetic relationships of mushrooms and their relatives within the order Agaricales were addressed by using nuclear large subunit ribosomal DNA sequences. Approximately 900 bases of the 5' end of the nucleus-encoded large subunit RNA gene were sequenced for 154 selected taxa representing most families within the Agaricales. Several phylogenetic methods were used, including weighted and equally weighted parsimony (MP), maximum likelihood (ML), and distance methods (NJ). The starting tree for branch swapping in the ML analyses was the tree with the highest ML score among previously produced MP and NJ trees. A high degree of consensus was observed between phylogenetic estimates obtained through MP and ML. NJ trees differed according to the distance model that was used; however, all NJ trees still supported most of the same terminal groupings as the MP and ML trees did. NJ trees were always significantly suboptimal when evaluated against the best MP and ML trees, by both parsimony and likelihood tests. Our analyses suggest that weighted MP and ML provide the best estimates of Agaricales phylogeny. Similar support was observed between bootstrapping and jackknifing methods for evaluation of tree robustness. Phylogenetic analyses revealed many groups of agaricoid fungi that are supported by moderate to high bootstrap or jackknife values or are consistent with morphology-based classification schemes. Analyses also support separate placement of the boletes and russules, which are basal to the main core group of gilled mushrooms (the Agaricineae of Singer). Examples of monophyletic groups include the families Amanitaceae, Coprinaceae (excluding Coprinus comatus and subfamily Panaeolideae), Agaricaceae (excluding the Cystodermateae), and Strophariaceae pro parte (Stropharia, Pholiota, and Hypholoma); the mycorrhizal species of Tricholoma (including Leucopaxillus, also mycorrhizal); Mycena and Resinomycena; Termitomyces, Podabrella, and Lyophyllum; and Pleurotus with Hohenbuehelia. Several groups revealed by these data to be nonmonophyletic include the families Tricholomataceae, Cortinariaceae, and Hygrophoraceae and the genera Clitocybe, Omphalina, and Marasmius. This study provides a framework for future systematics studies in the Agaricales and suggestions for analyzing large molecular data sets.     

Efficiencies of fast algorithms of phylogenetic inference under the criteria of maximum parsimony, minimum evolution, and maximum likelihood when a large number of sequences are used

In phylogenetic inference by maximum-parsimony (MP), minimum-evolution (ME), and maximum-likelihood (ML) methods, it is customary to conduct extensive heuristic searches of MP, ME, and ML trees, examining a large number of different topologies. However, these extensive searches tend to give incorrect tree topologies. Here we show by extensive computer simulation that when the number of nucleotide sequences (m) is large and the number of nucleotides used (n) is relatively small, the simple MP or ML tree search algorithms such as the stepwise addition (SA) plus nearest neighbor interchange (NNI) search and the SA plus subtree pruning regrafting (SPR) search are as efficient as the extensive search algorithms such as the SA plus tree bisection-reconnection (TBR) search in inferring the true tree. In the case of ME methods, the simple neighbor-joining (NJ) algorithm is as efficient as or more efficient than the extensive NJ+TBR search. We show that when ME methods are used, the simple p distance generally gives better results in phylogenetic inference than more complicated distance measures such as the Hasegawa-Kishino-Yano (HKY) distance, even when nucleotide substitution follows the HKY model. When ML methods are used, the simple Jukes-Cantor (JC) model of phylogenetic inference generally shows a better performance than the HKY model even if the likelihood value for the HKY model is much higher than that for the JC model. This indicates that at least in the present case, selecting of a substitution model by using the likelihood ratio test or the AIC index is not appropriate. When n is small relative to m and the extent of sequence divergence is high, the NJ method with p distance often shows a better performance than ML methods with the JC model. However, when the level of sequence divergence is low, this is not the case.     

The accuracy of species tree estimation under simulation: a comparison of methods

Numerous simulation studies have investigated the accuracy of phylogenetic inference of gene trees under maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian techniques. The relative accuracy of species tree inference methods under simulation has received less study. The number of analytical techniques available for inferring species trees is increasing rapidly, and in this paper, we compare the performance of several species tree inference techniques at estimating recent species divergences using computer simulation. Simulating gene trees within species trees of different shapes and with varying tree lengths (T) and population sizes (), and evolving sequences on those gene trees, allows us to determine how phylogenetic accuracy changes in relation to different levels of deep coalescence and phylogenetic signal. When the probability of discordance between the gene trees and the species tree is high (i.e., T is small and/or is large), Bayesian species tree inference using the multispecies coalescent (BEST) outperforms other methods. The performance of all methods improves as the total length of the species tree is increased, which reflects the combined benefits of decreasing the probability of discordance between species trees and gene trees and gaining more accurate estimates for gene trees. Decreasing the probability of deep coalescences by reducing also leads to accuracy gains for most methods. Increasing the number of loci from 10 to 100 improves accuracy under difficult demographic scenarios (i.e., coalescent units ≤ 4N(e)), but 10 loci are adequate for estimating the correct species tree in cases where deep coalescence is limited or absent. In general, the correlation between the phylogenetic accuracy and the posterior probability values obtained from BEST is high, although posterior probabilities are overestimated when the prior distribution for is misspecified.     

Relative efficiencies of the maximum parsimony and distance-matrix methods in obtaining the correct phylogenetic tree

The relative efficiencies of the maximum parsimony (MP) and distance-matrix methods in obtaining the correct tree (topology) were studied by using computer simulation. The distance-matrix methods examined are the neighbor-joining, distance-Wagner, Tateno et al. modified Farris, Faith, and Li methods. In the computer simulation, six or eight DNA sequences were assumed to evolve following a given model tree, and the evolutionary changes of the sequences were followed. Both constant and varying rates of nucleotide substitution were considered. From the sequences thus obtained, phylogenetic trees were constructed using the six tree-making methods and compared with the model (true) tree. This process was repeated 300 times for each different set of parameters. The results obtained indicate that when the number of nucleotide substitutions per site is small and a relatively small number of nucleotides are used, the probability of obtaining the correct topology (P1) is generally lower in the MP method than in the distance-matrix methods. The P1 value for the MP method increases with increasing number of nucleotides but is still generally lower than the value for the NJ or DW method. Essentially the same conclusion was obtained whether or not the rate of nucleotide substitution was constant or whether or not a transition bias in nucleotide substitution existed. The relatively poor performance of the MP method for these cases is due to the fact that information from singular sites is not used in this method. The MP method also showed a relatively low P1 value when the model of varying rate of nucleotide substitution was used and the number of substitutions per site was large. However, the MP method often produced cases in which the correct tree was one of several equally parsimonious trees. When these cases were included in the class of "success," the MP method performed better than the other methods, provided that the number of nucleotide substitutions per site was small.