全球气候变化的中国自然植被的净第一性生产力研究

本文根据已建立的植物生理生态学特点与水热平衡关系的植物净第一性生产力模型对中国自然植被的净第一性生产力现状及全球变化后的自然植被的净第一性生产力进行了分析,给出了中国陆地生态系统自然植被的净第一性生产力在全球气候变化条件下的变化图景,为合理开发、利用自然资源,以及监测和预测中国陆地生态系统自然植被净第一性生产力的变化及应采取的策略提供了科学依据。     

陆地植被净第一性生产力的研究

回顾了当前国内外陆地植被净第一性生产力（ＮＰＰ） 的研究现状，分析了３ 种生产力模型（ 气候相关模型、过程模型和光能利用率模型） 在应用于全球和区域生产力研究时的长处及不足：气候相关模型在气候变化研究中应用比较多，但计算的只是潜在ＮＰＰ；过程模型着重于植物生长的生理生态过程，但过于复杂，模型中的参数不易获得；光能利用率模型因为可直接利用遥感数据成为ＮＰＰ模型发展的一个主要方面．对国内ＮＰＰ的研究及遥感手段在ＮＰＰ研究中的应用进行了分析．     

陆地生物圈模型的发展与应用

陆地生物圈与大气圈和水圈之间能量、水和碳氮等元素的交换和循环对整个地球系统产生了深刻的影响。陆地生物圈模型(TBM)是研究陆地生态系统如何响应和反馈全球变化的重要方法和工具。通过对从生态系统到区域和全球陆地生物圈不同空间尺度的植被动态、生物地球物理和生物地球化学循环过程、水循环和水文过程、自然干扰和人类活动等过程时间动态的模拟, 陆地生物圈模型被广泛地应用于评估和归因过去陆地生物圈的时空变化和预测陆地生物圈对未来全球变化的响应和反馈。该文简要回顾了陆地生物圈模型的发展, 总结了模型对陆地生态系统主要过程的刻画和模型在生态系统生态学的应用, 并对未来陆地生物圈模型的发展和应用进行了展望。     

全球变暖与陆地生态系统研究中的野外增温装置

由于化石燃料燃烧和森林砍伐等人类活动引起的地球大气层中温室气体(主要是二氧化碳)的富集已导致全球平均温度在20世纪升高了0.6 ℃,并将在本世纪继续上升1.4~5.8 ℃。这种地质历史上前所未有的全球变暖将对陆地植物和生态系统产生深远影响,并通过全球碳循环的改变反馈于全球气候变化。作为全球变化生态学的主要研究方法之一,生态系统增温实验能够为生态模型提供参数估计和模型验证。然而由于在世界各地使用的增温装置不同,使得各个生态系统之间的结果比较和整合难以实施,增加了模型预测的不确定性。该文通过比较几种常见的野外增温装置在模拟全球变暖情形时的优缺点,指出利用不同增温装置进行全球变暖研究中应注意的一些问题;同时探讨了全球变暖控制实验研究中的一些关键性的科学问题。     

植物功能性状与湿地生态系统土壤碳汇功能

湿地生态系统碳平衡对气候变化极为敏感,是陆地生态系统碳循环响应全球变化的重要环节。然而,湿地生态系统碳汇调节机制仍不十分清楚,并且对影响因子的研究多集中在非生物因子上。综述了植物功能性状和功能性状多样性对湿地生态系统土壤碳汇功能的影响,阐明了生物因子对生态系统碳循环响应全球变化的重要性,介绍了植物功能性状对生态系统碳输入和输出过程的影响,简述了植物功能性状多样性的研究现状及其在指示生态系统碳汇功能现状和预测未来趋势等方面的应用。从优势植物、植物种间关系和植物-微生物种间关系3方面总结了植物功能性状多样性直接和间接影响生态系统碳循环的途径。展望了植物功能性状和功能性状多样性与湿地生态系统土壤碳汇功能的研究前景。     

极端干旱对陆地生态系统的影响:进展与展望

作为地球表层重要的组成部分,陆地生态系统是人类生存和发展的重要场所。进入21世纪以来,气候变化导致干旱事件发生的强度、频度和持续时间显著增加,对陆地生态系统带来深远的影响,严重制约甚至威胁人类社会的可持续发展。因此,开展极端干旱对陆地生态系统影响的研究并评估其生态风险效应,是当前全球变化领域研究的重点问题。该文从植物生理生态过程、生物地球化学循环、生物多样性以及生态系统结构和功能4个方面综述了极端干旱对陆地生态系统的影响,并对当前的研究热点进行探讨,深度剖析当前研究中存在的难点问题和未来可能的发展方向,以期为未来开展干旱对陆地生态系统影响的观测与预测研究提供参考,为在未来干旱影响下加强陆地生态系统风险评估和管理提供新思路。     

Effects of extreme drought on terrestrial ecosystems: review and prospects

作为地球表层重要的组成部分, 陆地生态系统是人类生存和发展的重要场所。进入21世纪以来, 气候变化导致干旱事件发生的强度、频度和持续时间显著增加, 对陆地生态系统带来深远的影响, 严重制约甚至威胁人类社会的可持续发展。因此, 开展极端干旱对陆地生态系统影响的研究并评估其生态风险效应, 是当前全球变化领域研究的重点问题。该文从植物生理生态过程、生物地球化学循环、生物多样性以及生态系统结构和功能4个方面综述了极端干旱对陆地生态系统的影响, 并对当前的研究热点进行探讨, 深度剖析当前研究中存在的难点问题和未来可能的发展方向, 以期为未来开展干旱对陆地生态系统影响的观测与预测研究提供参考, 为在未来干旱影响下加强陆地生态系统风险评估和管理提供新思路。     

利用大气二氧化碳和羰基硫浓度评估陆地生态系统模型碳通量模拟的不确定性

生态系统模型是模拟全球陆地生态系统碳循环的重要工具,但是其在全球不同区域的模拟存在很大的不确定性。如何评估陆地生态系统模型的不确定性是一项重要的研究。以北美地区为例,利用8个高塔观测站点同步获取的大气CO_2和羰基硫(OCS)浓度数据,结合WRF-STILT大气粒子扩散模型,评估了CASA-GFED3、SiB3和SiBCASA三种陆地生态系统模型模拟总初级生产力(GPP)和净生态系统CO_2交换(NEE)通量的不确定性。结果表明,SiB3模型能很好地模拟北美陆地生态系统GPP和NEE的季节变化时相和幅度,在3种模型中具有最佳的模拟能力;CASA-GFED3模型模拟的NEE季节变化较为理想、但对生长季GPP的模拟存在较大的误差,SiBCASA模型在模拟冬季晚期和春季早期的NEE和GPP时表现较不理想。研究证明了大气CO_2和OCS在评估陆地生态系统模型碳通量模拟的不确定性中的作用,为利用大气CO_2和OCS观测数据优化计算陆地生态系统光合和呼吸碳通量提供了理论支撑。     

植物功能性状对全球气候变化的指示作用研究进展

以大气CO2浓度升高、大气温度升高、干旱胁迫加剧及紫外辐射增强为特征的全球变化对陆地生态系统产生巨大影响,植物作为陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,其功能性状对全球变化的指示作用为探寻全球变化规律、减缓气候变化提供了科学依据。该文主要综述了植物生理功能性状改变(形态变化、气孔调节、光合结构及光合途径改变和植物光合、呼吸速率及水分生理变化等)和物候功能性状改变对全球变化的指示作用,以及植物群落物种丰富度或数量增加等群落特征变化对全球气候变暖的指示作用。最后指出,完善植物功能性状指标和建立从植物个体、群落到生态系统功能的网络指示系统是今后植物功能性状指示研究的发展方向。     

极端降水和极端干旱事件对草原生态系统的影响

当前人类活动的加剧显著地影响着全球大气循环的格局。大气循环的多个模型均预测未来全球气候变化的显著特征是极端降水事件和极端干旱事件发生的频率会显著增加。水分是干旱、半干旱区草原植物生长发育的限制性资源, 而草原生态系统是陆地生态系统中对降水格局变化非常敏感的系统。但是, 关于极端降水事件和极端干旱事件对草原生态系统结构和功能的影响还是以分散的个案研究为主, 甚至关于极端气候事件的定义迄今也不尽相同。为此, 该文在分析极端气候事件定义及其研究方法的基础上, 总结了极端降水事件和极端干旱事件对草原生态系统土壤水分和养分状况、植物生长发育和生理特性、群落结构、生产力和碳循环过程的影响, 并提出了未来极端气候事件研究中应重点关注的5个重要方向, 以及控制试验研究的2个关键科学问题, 对开展全球变化背景下草原生态系统对极端气候事件响应机制的研究具有指导意义。     

Net primary and ecosystem production and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to climate change

Evaluating the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle requires a detailed understanding of carbon exchange between vegetation, soil, and the atmosphere. Global climatic change may modify the net carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems, causing feedbacks on atmospheric CO₂ and climate. We describe a model for investigating terrestrial carbon exchange and its response to climatic variation based on the processes of plant photosynthesis, carbon allocation, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition. The model is used to produce geographical patterns of net primary production (NPP), carbon stocks in vegetation and soils, and the seasonal variations in net ecosystem production (NEP) under both contemporary and future climates. For contemporary climate, the estimated global NPP is 57.0 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils are 640 Gt C and 1358 Gt C, respectively, and NEP varies from –0.5 Gt C in October to 1.6 Gt C in July. For a doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the corresponding climate, we predict that global NPP will rise to 69.6 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils will increase by, respectively, 133 Gt C and 160 Gt C, and the seasonal amplitude of NEP will increase by 76%. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ without climate change may enhance NPP by 25% and result in a substantial increase in carbon stocks in vegetation and soils. Climate change without CO₂ elevation will reduce the global NPP and soil carbon stocks, but leads to an increase in vegetation carbon because of a forest extension and NPP enhancement in the north. By combining the effects of CO₂ doubling, climate change, and the consequent redistribution of vegetation, we predict a strong enhancement in NPP and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems. This study simulates the possible variation in the carbon exchange at equilibrium state. We anticipate to investigate the dynamic responses in the carbon exchange to atmospheric CO₂ elevation and climate change in the past and future.     

Assessing the Spatiotemporal Variation in Distribution,Extent and NPP of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Response to Climate Change from 1911 to 2000

To assess the variation in distribution, extent, and NPP of global natural vegetation in response to climate change in the period 1911–2000 and to provide a feasible method for climate change research in regions where historical data is difficult to obtain. In this research, variations in spatiotemporal distributions of global potential natural vegetation (PNV) from 1911 to 2000 were analyzed with the comprehensive sequential classification system (CSCS) and net primary production (NPP) of different ecosystems was evaluated with the synthetic model to determine the effect of climate change on the terrestrial ecosystems. The results showed that consistently rising global temperature and altered precipitation patterns had exerted strong influence on spatiotemporal distribution and productivities of terrestrial ecosystems, especially in the mid/high latitudes. Ecosystems in temperate zones expanded and desert area decreased as a consequence of climate variations. The vegetation that decreased the most was cold desert (18.79%), while the maximum increase (10.31%) was recorded in savanna. Additionally, the area of tundra and alpine steppe reduced significantly (5.43%) and were forced northward due to significant ascending temperature in the northern hemisphere. The global terrestrial ecosystems productivities increased by 2.09%, most of which was attributed to savanna (6.04%), tropical forest (0.99%), and temperate forest (5.49%). Most NPP losses were found in cold desert (27.33%). NPP increases displayed a latitudinal distribution. The NPP of tropical zones amounted to more than a half of total NPP, with an estimated increase of 1.32%. The increase in northern temperate zone was the second highest with 3.55%. Global NPP showed a significant positive correlation with mean annual precipitation in comparison with mean annual temperature and biological temperature. In general, effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems were deep and profound in 1911–2000, especially in the latter half of the period.     

Responses of Terrestrial Ecosystems’ Net Primary Productivity to Future Regional Climate Change in China

The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems’ response to global climate change. China’s ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China’s terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change.     

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to temperature and precipitation change: a meta‐analysis of experimental manipulation

Global mean temperature is predicted to increase by 2–7 °C and precipitation to change across the globe by the end of this century. To quantify climate effects on ecosystem processes, a number of climate change experiments have been established around the world in various ecosystems. Despite these efforts, general responses of terrestrial ecosystems to changes in temperature and precipitation, and especially to their combined effects, remain unclear. We used meta‐analysis to synthesize ecosystem‐level responses to warming, altered precipitation, and their combination. We focused on plant growth and ecosystem carbon (C) balance, including biomass, net primary production (NPP), respiration, net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and ecosystem photosynthesis, synthesizing results from 85 studies. We found that experimental warming and increased precipitation generally stimulated plant growth and ecosystem C fluxes, whereas decreased precipitation had the opposite effects. For example, warming significantly stimulated total NPP, increased ecosystem photosynthesis, and ecosystem respiration. Experimentally reduced precipitation suppressed aboveground NPP (ANPP) and NEE, whereas supplemental precipitation enhanced ANPP and NEE. Plant productivity and ecosystem C fluxes generally showed higher sensitivities to increased precipitation than to decreased precipitation. Interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation tended to be smaller than expected from additive, single‐factor effects, though low statistical power limits the strength of these conclusions. New experiments with combined temperature and precipitation manipulations are needed to conclusively determine the importance of temperature–precipitation interactions on the C balance of terrestrial ecosystems under future climate conditions.     

全球不同气候带陆地植被净初级生产力变化趋势与可持续性

分析全球不同气候带陆地植被净初级生产力(NPP)的变化趋势与可持续性,对于估算全球陆地生态系统的结构、功能和碳源(汇)具有重要意义。运用Mann-Kendall突变检验、Theil-Sen斜率估计、Hurst指数分析全球不同气候带陆地NPP的变化趋势与可持续性。结果表明：(1)全球陆地NPP有明显的地域分异规律,呈现低纬高、高纬低,沿海高、内陆低的特点。约48.79%陆地生态系统的植被NPP得到了改善,其中显著改善的面积占全球陆地生态系统的8.45%,主要分布在北美洲北部和中部、亚马逊河流域西部、刚果盆地、欧洲南部、印度半岛西北部、中国黄土高原;轻微改善的面积占全球陆地生态系统的40.34%,主要分布在南美洲中南部、亚洲东部和澳大利亚大陆东部。(2)各气候带NPP变化趋势和突变点表现为：热带、亚热带、极地带的NPP呈不显著下降趋势(R²=0.111,P=0.176;R²=0.144,P=0.120;R²=0.002,P=0.854),热带无明显突变点,亚热带突变点为2015年,极地带突变点为2005年;干旱气候带的NPP...     

中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力时空变化特征及影响因素

为揭示气候变化背景下我国各陆地生态系统净初级生产力(NPP)的时空分布特征与驱动机制,引入重心模型分析2000—2017年我国NPP的空间分布格局变化,并利用相关分析方法结合Thornthwaite Memorial模型定量区分气候变化与人类活动影响NPP的相对作用。结果表明：(1)2000—2017年全国NPP均值为325.86 g C/m²,整体呈现出南方高北方低,东南向西北逐渐递减的特点。(2)近18年全国与各陆地生态系统NPP均呈现增长趋势,全国NPP增长速率为4.4597 g C m^-2 a^-1,总净增加约0.391 Pg C。空间上全国与森林、草地、荒漠生态系统的NPP重心向东北方向移动,农田与城市生态系统的NPP重心向西北方向移动,表明NPP在该方向上的增速和增量最大。(3)全国NPP在华北、西北地区与四川盆地主要受降水的影响,在青藏高原与云贵高原的东部主要受气温的影响,各陆地生态系统之间城市生态系统NPP对降水响应的敏感度相对最高,荒漠生态系统NPP对温度响应的敏感度相对最高。(4)气候变化和人类活动对全...     

中国气候-植被关系初探

气候—植被分类必须强调气候因子的综合影响及其指标的区域性。一般的气候观测缺乏在生物学上具有重要与综合的作用或代表性,而区域潜在蒸散包括从所有表面的蒸发与植物蒸腾,并涉及到决定植被分布的两大要素：温度和降水。因此,区域潜在蒸散具有作为植被—气候相关分析与分类的综合气候指标的功能。本文首次根据区域潜在蒸散对气候—植被关系的热量与水分指标进行了初步探讨,提出了进行气候—植被关系的热量指标(TI)和区域湿润指标(RMI),并据此对中国气候—植被关系进行了初步的定量研究。该研究对于了解气候—植被之间的相互关系,正确地评估和预测全球变化对人类及生物所赖以生存的生态环境的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

Sources of Variability in Net Primary Production Predictions at a Regional Scale: A Comparison Using PnET-II and TEM 4.0 in Northeastern US Forests

Because model predictions at continental and global scales are necessarily based on broad characterizations of vegetation, soils, and climate, estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes made by global terrestrial biosphere models may not be accurate for every region. At the regional scale, we suggest that attention can be focused more clearly on understanding the relative strengths of predicted net primary productivity (NPP) limitation by energy, water, and nutrients. We evaluate the sources of variability among model predictions of NPP with a regional-scale comparison between estimates made by PnET-II (a forest ecosystem process model previously applied to the northeastern region) and TEM 4.0 (a terrestrial biosphere model typically applied to the globe) for the northeastern US. When the same climate, vegetation, and soil data sets were used to drive both models, regional average NPP predictions made by PnET-II and TEM were remarkably similar, and at the biome level, model predictions agreed fairly well with NPP estimates developed from field measurements. However, TEM 4.0 predictions were more sensitive to regional variations in temperature as a result of feedbacks between temperature and belowground N availability. In PnET-II, the direct link between transpiration and photosynthesis caused substantial water stress in hardwood and pine forest types with increases in solar radiation; predicted water stress was relieved substantially when soil water holding capacity (WHC) was increased. Increasing soil WHC had little effect on TEM 4.0 predictions because soil water storage was already sufficient to meet plant demand with baseline WHC values, and because predicted N availability under baseline conditions in this region was not limited by water. Because NPP predictions were closely keyed to forest cover type, the relative coverage of low- versus high-productivity forests at both fine and coarse resolutions was an important determinant of regional NPP predictions. Therefore, changes in grid cell size and differences in the methods used to aggregate from fine to coarse resolution were important to NPP predictions insofar as they changed the relative proportions of forest cover. We suggest that because the small patches of high-elevation spruce-fir forest in this region are substantially less productive than forests in the remainder of the region, more accurate NPP predictions will result if models applied to this region use land cover input data sets that retain as much fine-resolution forest type variability as possible. The differences among model responses to variations in climate and soil WHC data sets suggest that the models will respond quite differently to scenarios of future climate. A better understanding of the dynamic interactions between water stress, N availability, and forest productivity in this region will enable models to make more accurate predictions of future carbon stocks and fluxes. Received 19 June 1998; accepted 25 June 1999.     

中国气候－植被关系初探

气候－植被分类必须强调气候因子的综合影响及其指标的区域性。一般的气候观测缺乏在生物学上具有重要与综合的作用或代表性,而区域潜在蒸散包括从所有表面的蒸发与植物蒸腾,并涉及到决定植被分布的两大要素：温度和降水。因此,区域潜在蒸散具有作为植被－气候相关分析与分类的综合气侯指标的功能。本文首次根据区域潜在蒸散对气侯－植被关系的热量与水分指标进行了初步探讨,提出了进行气候－植被关系的热量指标（ＴＩ）和区域湿润指标（ＲＭＩ）,并据此对中国气侯－植被关系进行了初步的定量研究。该研究对于了解气候－植被之间的相互关系,正确地评估和预测全球变化对人类及生物所赖以生存的生态环境的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

大气CO2升高及气候变化对中国陆地生态系统结构与功能的制约和影响（英文）

在本顶研究中,我们探讨了大气CO2加倍和气候变化条件下,中国陆地生态系统的结构与功能的变化。与多数研究不同的是,我们耦合了两个以地理空间为参照的生态系统模型,即生物地理模型（KBIOME）和生物地球化学模型（TEM）,用此研究现状和未来的环境下,中国的植被分布和年净初级生产力（NPP）的状况,我们采用3个大气环流模型,（GFDL－Q,GISS和OSU）预测的结果代表潜在气候变化。3个气候模型的预测都煌中国将变得更温暖并总体上更湿润。耦合的模型预测中国陆地生态系统的结构与功能都将产生十分显著的变化。植被的变迁表现为：1）中国东部森林带北移,温带常绿阔叶林面积扩大,较南的森林取代较北的类型;2）森林和草地的总面积增加,这是作为取代干旱藻木林、沙漠和高山苔原的结果。年净初级生产力在大气CO2加倍和气候变化条件下,增加30％左右,与其它研究不同的另一点是,我们可能进一步区分生产力变化的原因,在所增加的生产力中,12％－21％是源于生态系统的取代较低产的生态系统的结果。这项研究预测了未来中国植被和生产力潜在的变化并给出了变化的范围,为同类的研究以及有关的政策评估提供了有用的参考信息。