广梅汕铁路电气化改造的生态足迹分析

根据我国机车能耗统计资料、电力年度统计数据,从生态足迹角度定量地分析了广梅汕铁路电气化改造前后机车牵引能耗、CO₂排放量和能耗生态足迹.广梅汕铁路电气化改造前,采用内燃机车牵引客货列车,每年需要直接耗用柴油1.74×10⁴t,每年向大气排放5.50×10⁴t CO₂,其总生态足迹为1.27×10⁴hm²森林,平均生态足迹为每万吨公里0.018 hm²森林.电气化改造后,每年需耗电1.05×10⁸ kw·h,间接导致火电厂每年排放8.45×10⁴tCO₂,间接导致的火电总生态足迹为1.96×10⁴hm²森林,间接导致的水电总生态足迹为36.37hm²可耕地,平均间接生态足迹为每万吨公里0.021hm²森林和3.91×10^-5hm²可耕地.     

1953-2011年小兴安岭森林火灾含碳气体排放的估算

根据1953-2011年小兴安岭森林调查数据和森林火灾统计资料,结合野外火烧迹地调查与室内控制试验数据,估算了小兴安岭1953-2011年森林火灾的碳排放量和含碳气体排放量.结果表明: 1953-2011年小兴安岭森林火灾的总碳排放量为1.12×10⁷ t,年均排放量为1.90×10⁵ t,约占全国年均森林火灾碳排放量的1.7%;其中,含碳气体CO₂、CO、CH₄和非甲烷烃(NMHC)的排放量分别为3.39×10⁷、1.94×10₅、1.09×10⁵和7.46×10⁴ t,相应年均排放量5.74×10⁵、3.29×10⁴、1.85×10³、1.27×10³ t分别占全国年均森林火灾含碳气体排放量的1.4%、1.2%、1.7%和1.1%.不同林型的燃烧效率和单位过火面积的碳排放量均为针叶林＞阔叶林＞针阔混交林.最后提出了合理的林火管理措施.     

鄱阳湖生态经济区植被固碳研究

对鄱阳湖生态经济区的植被固碳研究表明,该区森林碳储量364.3×10⁶ t,草地植被固碳量90.65×10⁴ t,水稻固碳量18.51×10⁶ t,其他农作物固碳量20.64×10⁶ t;鄱阳湖湿地固定CO₂量为609 120 t/a。因此,建议对现有森林进行科学抚育与合理采伐,进而形成合理的树种结构、林龄结构与林层结构,提高森林生态系统的稳定性与碳汇能力;运用保护性耕作、灌溉节水和合理施肥技术,培育新型氮素高效利用的农作物新品种,提高光合作用率,从而提高该区农作物的固碳能力;进行合理放牧和草地资源生态监测,严格控制养殖数量和规模,实现草地生态系统减少与固定CO₂的重要功能;严禁围湖造田,健全水域环境监测网络,保护湿地生态功能。     

流溪河林场森林生态系统服务功能价值评估

运用市场价值法、影子工程法、替代费用法等生态经济学方法对流溪河林场森林生态系统服务功能的价值进行了评估.研究结果表明:流溪河林场森林生态系统服务功能的总价值为6.18×10⁸yuan·a^-1,主要的生态系统服务价值为间接价值,其中涵养水源价值居首位.各项服务功能的价值如下:林产品价值为6.03×10⁷yuan·a^-1,涵养水源价值为4.50×10⁸yuan·a^-1,土壤保持价值为1.46×10⁷yuan·a^-1,固碳放氧价值为5.80×10⁷yuan·a^-1,净化空气价值为2.42×10⁷yuan·a^-1,旅游价值为3.00×10⁶yuan·a^-1,生物多样性维护价值为7.61×10⁶yuan·a^-1.     

深圳市森林植被碳储量特征及其空间分布

基于2005年深圳市森林资源二类调查资料数据,采用材积源生物量法,计测深圳市森林植被碳储量和碳密度,分析了深圳市森林植被碳储量空间分布格局.结果表明,2005年深圳市森林植被总碳储量为225.04×10⁴Mg,平均碳密度为25.63MgC·hm^-2.深圳市各区的森林植被碳储量空间分布上有显著差异.表现为龙岗区(123.13×10⁴Mg)>宝安区(46.70×10⁴Mg)>盐田区(20.49×10⁴Mg)>罗湖区(14.75×10⁴Mg)>南山区(12.79×10⁴Mg)>福田区(5.63×10⁴Mg)>保护区(1.57×10⁴Mg).各区碳密度分布为盐田区(46.18MgC·hm^-2)>福田区(37.63 MgC·hm^-2)>罗湖区(36.78MgC·hm^-2)>龙岗区(26.60MgC·hm^-2)>保护区>(24.19 MgC·hm^-2)>宝安区(19.53MgC·hm^-2),与碳储量大小分布无明显相关.深圳市乔木林碳储量为146.11×10⁴Mg,以中幼龄林为主,占73.2%,平均碳密度为30.76MgC·hm^-2.根据森林植被碳储量与碳密度的空间差异性对深圳市森林进行了区划,并分区提出了提高深圳市森林碳吸存能力的有效措施.     

基于温室气体清单的河北省森林碳汇量研究

为考核地方温室气体减排, 国家启动了2005 年省级温室气体清单的编制试点工作。依据森林资源二类清查数据和IPCC2006 指南方法, 对河北省2005 年基于林业和土地利用变化的森林年碳汇量进行了研究。结果表明, 河北省2005 年森林和其它木质生物量年增长碳汇量233.24×10⁴ tC, 折合固定CO2 量855.23×10⁴ t, 主要来源于乔木林的净增长固碳, 灌木林和经济林由于2005 年总面积和生物量呈负增长, 而表现为净碳排放, 分别导致净碳排放1.34×10⁴ tC和22.63×10⁴ tC; 森林转化为非林地引起的碳排放量约1.64×10⁴ tC。二者相抵, 2005 年森林生物量净碳汇量为231.61×10⁴ tC, 折合CO2 吸收量849.22×10⁴ t, 全省森林和其它木质生物量总体表现为“碳吸收汇”的功能。     

2005—2007年大兴安岭林火释放碳量

根据野外火烧迹地调查,比较过火前后归一化植被指数的差异,计算2005—2007年大兴安岭林区各种可燃物类型的过火面积、火烧消耗的可燃物量,对森林火烧程度进行分级,并利用植物平均含碳率估算林火释放碳量.结果表明：2005—2007年大兴安岭林区总过火面积为436512.5 hm²,其中轻度、中度和重度火烧面积分别为207178.4、150159.2和79159.4 hm².这些火烧消耗可燃物量为3.9×10⁶ t,释放碳1.76×10⁶ t,其中落叶松林、针阔混交林、阔叶林和草地燃烧释放的碳量分别为0.34×10⁶、0.83×10⁶、0.27×10⁶和0.32×10⁶ t.     

滴水湖及其引水河道沉积物中磷细菌的生态调查

2010年对滴水湖及其引水河道沉积物中可培养有机磷细菌(OPB)、无机磷细菌(IPB)的分布变化规律进行了为期1年的调查.结果表明,闸外引水河沉积物中OPB、IPB年平均含量分别为2.76×10⁴±1.31×10⁴CFU·g^-1和7.19×10³±3.98×10³CFU·g^-1;闸内引水河中分别为1.05×10⁴±3.56×10³ CFU·g^-1和2.54×10³±8.77×10² CFU·g^-1;滴水湖中则为6.69×10³±2.63×10³ CFU·g^-1和1.66×10³±5.83×10² CFU·g^-1.滴水湖及其引水河道沉积物中OPB、IPB数量与水体中磷元素含量密切相关,各采样点OPB、IPB数量与总磷(TP)含量均呈极显著正相关,且均高于与总溶解性磷(TDP)、活性磷(AP)的相关系数.     

玫烟色拟青霉对小菜蛾致病力的时间-剂量-死亡率模型模拟

小菜蛾Plutella xylostella是我国南方十字花科蔬菜上的重要害虫,已对田间常用的化学杀虫剂产生了严重的抗性。为寻找有效的小菜蛾生物防治措施,本实验研究了一株分离自家白蚁的玫烟色拟青霉Paecilomyces fumosoroseus (SCAU-PFCF01)对小菜蛾2～4龄幼虫的致病力。实验采用浸液法,供试浓度为1×10³、1×10⁴、1×10⁵、1×10⁶和1×10⁷个孢子/mL。结果表明：随玫烟色拟青霉孢子浓度的升高,小菜蛾的感病死亡率增加,在浓度为1×10⁷ /mL时,小菜蛾2、3和4龄幼虫的累计死亡率分别为96%、85%和80%。玫烟色拟青霉对小菜蛾各龄幼虫的致病力与供试龄期有关,其感病的敏感顺序为2龄、3龄和4龄。用时间 剂量 死亡率模型（time-dose-mortality model,TDM）对各龄幼虫的致病力数据进行模拟,所建模型均顺利通过Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合异质性检验,表明模型拟合良好,并由模型估计出了该菌株对小菜蛾各龄幼虫的致死剂量与致死时间。2龄幼虫接种后第7天、3龄幼虫接种后第5天、4龄幼虫接种后第4天的LC₅₀估计值分别为1.17×10⁴、1.44×10⁴和5.21×10⁴ /mL,LC₉₀估计值分别为1.98×10⁶、3.82×10⁷和1.29×10⁸ /mL。玫烟色拟青霉对小菜蛾幼虫的致死时间与浓度相关,供试各龄幼虫的LT₅₀值随着孢子悬浮液浓度的增加而递减,在1×10⁵～1×10⁷ /mL的范围内,2龄幼虫的LT₅₀值从3.16天降低到1.72天,3龄幼虫的LT₅₀从3.21天降低到1.83天,4龄幼虫的LT₅₀从3.69天降低到2.04天。即2龄幼虫致死所需的时间最短,其次为3龄幼虫,4龄幼虫致死所需的时间最长。结果显示了该株玫烟色拟青霉在小菜蛾的生物防治中具较强的应用潜力。     

我国主要森林生态系统碳贮量和碳平衡

在广泛收集资料的基础上,估算了我国主要森林生态系统的碳贮量和碳平衡通量,分析了它们的区域特征。主要结果如下：1)我国森林生态系统的平均碳密度是258.83t·hm^-2,基本趋势是随纬度的增加而增加;其中植被的平均碳密度是57.07t·hm^-2,随纬度的增加而减小;土壤碳密度约是植被碳密度的3．4倍,其区域特点与植被碳密度呈相反趋势,随纬度升高而增加;凋落物层平均碳密度是8.21t·hm^-2,随水热因子的改善而减小。2)森林生态系统有机碳库包括植被、土壤和凋落物层3个部分,采用林业部调查规划设计院1989～1993年最新统计的我国森林资源清查资料,估算我国主要森林生态系统碳贮量为281.16×10⁸t,其中植被碳库、土壤碳库、凋落物层碳库分别为62.00×10⁸t、210.23×10⁸t、8.92×10⁸t。落叶阔叶林、暖性针叶林、常绿落叶阔叶林、云冷杉(Picea-Abies)林、落叶松(Larix)林占森林总碳贮量的87％,是我国森林主要的碳库。3)我国森林生态系统在与大气的气体交换中表现为碳汇,年通量为4.80×10⁸t·a^-1,基本规律是从热带向寒带,碳汇功能下降,这取决于系统碳收支的各个通量之间的动态平衡;阔叶林的固碳能力大于针叶林。我国森林生态系统可以吸收生物物质、化石燃料燃烧和人口呼吸释放总碳量(9.87×10⁸t·a^-1)的48.7％。     

新疆千里光Senecio jacobaea在中国的适生区预测

【背景】菊科植物新疆千里光原产于欧亚大陆,在北美和澳洲为入侵植物,目前在中国只有新疆有分布记录。新疆千里光一旦成为入侵植物,将对农业、畜牧业和人类健康都可能产生危害,所以需要评估其在中国的扩散趋势。【方法】搜集新疆千里光在中国和世界其他地区的分布记录,结合当前和未来(2050年)气候条件下19种生物气候变量,应用Maxent模型和Diva Gis软件,定量预测新疆千里光在中国目前和未来的潜在分布区域;并通过接受者操作特征曲线(ROC)分析法对模型进行精度检验。另外,通过Maxent给出新疆千里光在欧洲(原产地)、北美洲和大洋洲(入侵地)以及中国等4个分布区的年均温度和年均降水量的气候阈值。【结果】用中国和全球分布的数据预测的结果有些差异。前者结果表明除了新疆地区,其他省份几乎没有新疆千里光的适生区;而后者显示在中国其他几个省份也有可能分布,且在甘肃四川交界处有较高适生性。前者模型精确度较高,但2个结果都显示新疆千里光在中国目前和未来的分布区大部分还是在新疆地区。中国分布区年均温度和年均降水量的阈值比其他2个地区都低。【结论与意义】新疆千里光在当前和未来气候条件下在中国未来的扩散趋势较弱,基本局限于新疆地区。用中国分布数据预测优于全球分布数据预测结果,新疆千里光不同分布区的气候阈值的差异揭示分布于中国的新疆千里光与其他地区的种群的生态位有所不同,可能是一个新的亚种,希望未来能进行进一步的研究。     

Are Child Eating Patterns Being Transformed Globally?

Objective: To examine the extent to which child dietary patterns and trends are changing globally. Research Methods and Procedures: Diets of children 2 to 19 years of age were studied with nationally representative data from Russia and the United States, nationwide data from China, and regional data from metropolitan Cebu, Philippines. Twenty‐four‐hour dietary recalls were examined at several points in time to examine trends in calories consumed away from home, snacking behavior, and soft drink and modern fast food consumption. Urban—rural trends were compared. Results: U.S. and Cebu youth consume more than one‐third of their daily calories and a higher proportion of snack calories from foods prepared away from home. In contrast, away from home food consumption is minimal in Chinese and Russian children. U.S. and Cebu youth consume about one‐fifth of their total daily energy from snacks, but snacks provide a much lower proportion of energy in Russia (～16%) and China (where snacks provide only ～1% of energy). Fast food plays a much more dominant role in the American diet (～20% of energy vs. 2% to 7% in the other countries), but as yet does not contribute substantially to children's diets in the other countries. Urban—rural differences were found to be important, but narrowing over time, for China and Cebu, whereas they are widening for Russia. Discussion: This research suggests that globalization of the fast food and other modern food sectors is beginning to affect child eating patterns in several countries undergoing nutrition transition. However, the contribution of fast food and soft drinks to the diet of children remains relatively small in China, Russia, and Cebu, Philippines, relative to the United States.     

Examining Road Traffic Mortality Status in China: A Simulation Study

BackgroundData from the Chinese police service suggest substantial reductions in road traffic injuries since 2002, but critics have questioned the accuracy of those data, especially considering conflicting data reported by the health department.MethodsTo address the gap between police and health department data and to determine which may be more accurate, we conducted a simulation study based on the modified Smeed equation, which delineates a non-linear relation between road traffic mortality and the level of motorization in a country or region. Our goal was to simulate trends in road traffic mortality in China and compare performances in road traffic safety management between China and 13 other countries.ResultsChinese police data indicate a peak in road traffic mortalities in 2002 and a significant and a gradual decrease in population-based road traffic mortality since 2002. Health department data show the road traffic mortality peaked in 2012. In addition, police data suggest China’s road traffic mortality peaked at a much lower motorization level (0.061 motor vehicles per person) in 2002, followed by a reduction in mortality to a level comparable to that of developed countries. Simulation results based on health department data suggest high road traffic mortality, with a mortality peak in 2012 at a moderate motorization level (0.174 motor vehicles per person). Comparisons to the other 13 countries suggest the health data from China may be more valid than the police data.ConclusionOur simulation data indicate China is still at a stage of high road traffic mortality, as suggested by health data, rather than a stage of low road traffic mortality, as suggested by police data. More efforts are needed to integrate safety into road design, improve road traffic management, improve data quality, and alter unsafe behaviors of pedestrians, drivers and passengers in China.     

The Global Burden of Alveolar Echinococcosis

Background

Human alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is known to be common in certain rural communities in China whilst it is generally rare and sporadic elsewhere. The objective of this study was to provide a first estimate of the global incidence of this disease by country. The second objective was to estimate the global disease burden using age and gender stratified incidences and estimated life expectancy with the disease from previous results of survival analysis. Disability weights were suggested from previous burden studies on echinococcosis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We undertook a detailed review of published literature and data from other sources. We were unable to make a standardised systematic review as the quality of the data was highly variable from different countries and hence if we had used uniform inclusion criteria many endemic areas lacking data would not have been included. Therefore we used evidence based stochastic techniques to model uncertainty and other modelling and estimating techniques, particularly in regions where data quality was poor. We were able to make an estimate of the annual global incidence of disease and annual disease burden using standard techniques for calculation of DALYs. Our studies suggest that there are approximately 18,235 (CIs 11,900–28,200) new cases of AE per annum globally with 16,629 (91%) occurring in China and 1,606 outside China. Most of these cases are in regions where there is little treatment available and therefore will be fatal cases. Based on using disability weights for hepatic carcinoma and estimated age and gender specific incidence we were able to calculate that AE results in a median of 666,434 DALYs per annum (CIs 331,000-1.3 million).

Conclusions/Significance

The global burden of AE is comparable to several diseases in the neglected tropical disease cluster and is likely to be one of the most important diseases in certain communities in rural China on the Tibetan plateau.     

Contribution of Urban Water Supply to Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy use in the water sector in China have not received the same attention as emissions from other sectors, but interest in this area is growing. This study uses 2011 data to investigate GHG emissions from electricity use for urban water supply in China. The objective is to measure the climate cobenefit of water conservation, compare China with other areas on a number of emissions indicators, and assist in development of policy that promotes low‐emission water supply. Per capita and per unit GHG emissions for water supplied to urban areas in China in 2011 were 24.5 kilograms carbon dioxide equivalent (kg CO₂‐eq) per capita per year and 0.213 kg CO₂‐eq per cubic meter, respectively. Comparison of provinces within China revealed that GHG emissions for urban water supply as a percentage of total province‐wide emissions from electricity use correlate directly with the rate of leakage and water loss within the water distribution system. This highlights controlling leakage as a possible means of reducing the contribution of urban water supply to GHG emissions. An inverse correlation was established between GHG emissions per unit water and average per capita daily water use, which implies that water demand tends to be higher when per unit emissions are lower. China's high emission factor for electricity generation inflates emissions for urban water supply. Shifting from emissions‐intensive electricity sources is crucial to reducing emissions in the water supply sector.     

Leaf life span as a simple predictor of evergreen forest zonation in China

Aim Our aim was to investigate how the average life span of canopy leaves might be used to predict the geographical distribution of natural forests at large geographical scales, and to explore the link between leaf characteristics and ecosystem functioning. We examine whether there is a general relationship between canopy mean leaf life span and climate (i.e. temperature and precipitation) that can be used to predict evergreen forest zonation in China. Location Forest areas in China. Methods During July and August of 2002–2004, we conducted a latitudinal forest transect spanning about 30° of latitude in eastern China. The canopy mean leaf life span was calculated to include all tree species (groups) in each forest plot through weighted averages scaled up from branch‐level measurements. Data from our previous work conducted in the Tibetan Alpine Vegetation Transects (TAVT) and from other investigators were compiled to supplement our results. Based on regression equations developed on the pooled data, and using gridded temperature and precipitation datasets, we simulated the distribution of canopy mean leaf life span for forests in China. The predicted leaf life span zonation was compared with a map of Chinese forest vegetation divisions published in 1980. Results Canopy mean leaf life span across 10 evergreen forest plots in eastern China showed a decreasing trend as mean annual temperature increased, following a common logistic pattern consistent with the data from the TAVT and other investigators. In pooled data for 40 evergreen forest plots across tropical and boreal regions, canopy mean leaf life span generally showed a negative relationship with mean annual temperature (r² = 0.72, P < 0.001), and a positive correlation with mean annual precipitation where mean annual temperature was > 8°C (r² = 0.45, P < 0.01). The climate‐based simulations of leaf life span zonation compared well with the previously published boundaries of forest vegetation divisions in eastern China. Main conclusions Our results reveal that mean leaf life span in evergreen forests follows a common logistic pattern associated with mean annual temperature and precipitation, which can in turn be used to predict evergreen forest zonation in eastern China.     

Phylogeographic analysis of human papillomavirus 58

Human papillomavirus 58 (HPV58) is one type of HPV with high risk of causing cervical cancer. Unusually high prevalence of HPV58 has been reported in Asia, Africa and some other areas. However, due to the scattered distribution of global data, in addition to the lack of data of some HPV58 high-incidence nations and regions, like Mainland China, a comprehensive analysis of the global geographical distribution of HPV58 remains blank so far. In this study, HPV58 from the human cervical cancer tissue was detected in Mainland China, and 14 new HPV58-E6/L1 gene sequences were obtained. Moreover, phylogeographic analysis has been conducted combining the HPV58 sequences that have been deposited in GenBank since 1985. The study result shows that the sequences detected from the Shanghai, Jiangsu and Sichuan areas are homologous with those found in the past from Hong Kong and Xi’an, China, as well as Japan and other Southeast Asian areas. Furthermore, Western Africa is considered to be the “root” source of the HPV58 variant, while Mainland China and Southeast Asia are “transit points” and the new sources of HPV58 after receiving the isolates from the “root” source; like HPV16 and HPV18, the HPV58 might also be one of the major HPV types associated with the development and spread of cervical cancer.     

Invasion genetics of the Western flower thrips in China: evidence for genetic bottleneck, hybridization and bridgehead effect

The western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), is an invasive species and the most economically important pest within the insect order Thysanoptera. F. occidentalis, which is endemic to North America, was initially detected in Kunming in southwestern China in 2000 and since then it has rapidly invaded several other localities in China where it has greatly damaged greenhouse vegetables and ornamental crops. Controlling this invasive pest in China requires an understanding of its genetic makeup and migration patterns. Using the mitochondrial COI gene and 10 microsatellites, eight of which were newly isolated and are highly polymorphic, we investigated the genetic structure and the routes of range expansion of 14 F. occidentalis populations in China. Both the mitochondrial and microsatellite data revealed that the genetic diversity of F. occidentalis of the Chinese populations is lower than that in its native range. Two previously reported cryptic species (or ecotypes) were found in the study. The divergence in the mitochondrial COI of two Chinese cryptic species (or ecotypes) was about 3.3% but they cannot be distinguished by nuclear markers. Hybridization might produce such substantial mitochondrial-nuclear discordance. Furthermore, we found low genetic differentiation (global F _ST = 0.043, P<0.001) among all the populations and strong evidence for gene flow, especially from the three southwestern populations (Baoshan, Dali and Kunming) to the other Chinese populations. The directional gene flow was further supported by the higher genetic diversity of these three southwestern populations. Thus, quarantine and management of F. occidentalis should focus on preventing it from spreading from the putative source populations to other parts of China.     

中国九个人群耵聍的遗传多态性

报道了九个人群的耵聍位点基因。计算表明中国各族人群在耵聍位点上的遗传分化程度非常大,固定指数F_(ST)=0.22。本文根据耵聍基因频率在我国和邻近地区的分布趋势,认为亚洲东北地区应是干型基因的起源地,目前世界上耵聍位点基因频率分布格局主要是基因扩散的结果,而非选择作用造成的。     

The Geometric Increase in Meta-Analyses from China in the Genomic Era

Meta-analyses are increasingly popular. It is unknown whether this popularity is driven by specific countries and specific meta-analyses types. PubMed was used to identify meta-analyses since 1995 (last update 9/1/2012) and catalogue their types and country of origin. We focused more on meta-analyses from China (the current top producer of meta-analyses) versus the USA (top producer until recently). The annual number of meta-analyses from China increased 40-fold between 2003 and 2011 versus 2.4-fold for the USA. The growth of Chinese meta-analyses was driven by genetics (110-fold increase in 2011 versus 2003). The HuGE Navigator identified 612 meta-analyses of genetic association studies published in 2012 from China versus only 109 from the USA. We compared in-depth 50 genetic association meta-analyses from China versus 50 from USA in 2012. Meta-analyses from China almost always used only literature-based data (92%), and focused on one or two genes (94%) and variants (78%) identified with candidate gene approaches (88%), while many USA meta-analyses used genome-wide approaches and raw data. Both groups usually concluded favorably for the presence of genetic associations (80% versus 74%), but nominal significance (P<0.05) typically sufficed in the China group. Meta-analyses from China typically neglected genome-wide data, and often included candidate gene studies published in Chinese-language journals. Overall, there is an impressive rise of meta-analyses from China, particularly on genetic associations. Since most claimed candidate gene associations are likely false-positives, there is an urgent global need to incorporate genome-wide data and state-of-the art statistical inferences to avoid a flood of false-positive genetic meta-analyses.