气候变化对鸟类影响：长期研究的意义

过去一个多世纪全球气候发生了明显变化，地球表面温度正在逐渐变暖。已有大量研究结果表明，鸟类已经在种群动态变化、生活史特性以及地理分布范围等方面对全球气候变化作出了相应的反应。根据全球范围内气候变化对鸟类影响的研究资料，尤其是北美和欧洲的一些长期研究项目的成果，综述了气候变化对鸟类分布范围、物候、繁殖和种群动态变化等方面的可能影响。这些长期研究项目为探讨气候变化在个体和种群的水平上如何长时间地影响鸟类提供了独特的机会，对未来中国鸟类学研究也会有所裨益。     

蝴蝶对全球气候变化响应的研究综述

全球气候变化以及生物对其响应已引起人们的广泛关注。在众多生物中,蝴蝶被公认为是对全球气候变化最敏感的指示物种之一。已有大量的研究结果表明,蝴蝶类群已经在地理分布范围、生活史特性以及生物多样性变化等方面对全球气候变化作出了响应。根据全球范围内蝴蝶类群对气候变化响应的研究资料,尤其是欧美一些长期监测的研究成果,综述了蝴蝶类群在物种分布格局、物候、繁殖、形态特征变化、种群动态以及物种多样性变化等方面对气候变化的响应特征,认为温度升高和极端天气是导致蝴蝶物种分布格局和种群动态变化的主要因素。在此基础上,展望了我国开展蝴蝶类群对气候变化响应方面研究的未来发展趋势。     

气候变化对鸟类影响的研究进展

气候变化对生物多样性的影响已成为热点问题.本文以鸟类为研究对象,根据鸟类受气候变化影响的最新研究成果,综述了气候变化对鸟类的分布、物候和种群等方面的影响.结果表明,在气候变化影响下,鸟类分布向高纬度或高海拔区移动,速度比以往加快,繁殖地和非繁殖地的分布移动变化并不相同,并且多数分布范围缩小,物候期发生复杂变化,种群数量下降明显.文章还讨论了该领域主要的预测和评估方法,以及进化适应等生物因素对气候变化预测结果的影响,除了以往单一的相关性模型外,目前应用最多的是集成模型,而未来最具发展潜力的是机理模型.进化适应方面的研究近来取得新进展,证实了生物个体积极应对气候变化影响的事实,从而对人为模型预测的准确性带来挑战.文章最后进行了总结和展望,结合国外研究经验和我国实际情况,提出一些建议:由于气候变化的影响及其研究是长期性的,从而对鸟类的历史监测数据提出很高的要求,当前我国急需建立一套长期、全面和可靠的鸟类数据监测系统;此外,人们需要综合评估现有各种预测模型的可靠性,在此基础上探索新的研究方法.     

全球气候变暖对中国鸟类区系的影响

近百年来,气候系统变暖是毋庸置疑的.政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的第4次评估报告中指出,最近100年中(1906～2005年)气温上升了约0.74℃.已经有充分的研究表明全球气候变暖对鸟类分布,种群动态以及物候等方面产生了影响.根据作者以往研究经历以及对近20年来中国鸟类分布变化的资料进行统计分析,已知受气候变暖而改变分布范围的鸟类共120种,其中东洋界鸟类88种,古北界鸟类12种,广布种鸟类20种.因受全球气候变暖影响,中国鸟类区系的变化速率加快.本文初步探讨气候变化对我国鸟类产生的影响,并对今后该领域的研究提出一些建议.     

风力发电对鸟类的影响以及应对措施

风能是一种清洁而稳定的可再生能源,风力发电可以减少全球温室气体排放,在减缓气候变化中发挥重要作用。然而,风电场的建设会对自然保护、生态环境和动物生存会造成一定的负面影响,其中对鸟类的影响尤为突出。本文通过查阅欧美等国风电场对鸟类及野生动物影响的研究文献,总结了风电场对鸟类的生存、迁徙和栖息地环境的影响,以及导致鸟类与风电塔相撞的影响因素,并提出了相关防范措施和方法。近十年中国风力发电事业发展迅猛,已经成为世界上风电装机容量最大的国家,但中国在评估风电场发展对野生动物影响方面的研究工作非常匮乏。目前,我国应借鉴国外相关研究管理经验,通过长期的连续观测,认真评估国内正在运行和在建风电场对于鸟类和其他野生动物的影响及潜在威胁。同时,应重视鸟类迁徙的基础研究,为新建风电场选址提供科学方案,保证风力发电与生态环境保护之间的和谐发展。     

城市化对鸟类的影响：从群落到个体

世界范围急剧的城市化进程所带来的生态问题,尤其是城市化对鸟类的影响引起了生态学家越来越多的关注。关注点从最初的群落水平,逐渐向种群水平和个体水平深入。在群落水平上,现有的研究展示了城市化对鸟类群落组成、物种的丰富度、多度、生物量和多样性等多方面存在的不同程度的影响;而物种水平的研究探讨了城市化影响鸟类群落格局的内在原因:不同的鸟类物种对城市化具有不同的反应;而个体水平的研究,更是进一步从鸟类行为、生活史特征等方面揭示城市化压力和鸟类的适应对策。大量的证据说明,城市化所带来的土地使用的改变、人为干扰、热岛效应、食物资源改变、巢捕食、夜间灯光等,不同程度地对城市鸟类产生了影响。     

气候变化对野生植物的影响及保护对策

以温室气体浓度持续上升、全球气候变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化对野生植物及生物多样性造成的潜在影响, 已经引起了国际学者的高度关注。本文总结了全球气候变化的现状与未来趋势, 概述了中国野生植物的保护及管理现状, 从不同侧面综述了国内外关于全球气候变暖对野生植物影响的研究进展和动态, 包括气候带北移、两极冰山退缩、高海拔山地变暖、海平面上升、早春温度提前升高、荒漠草原土壤增温、旱涝急转弯等对野生植物造成的影响以及气候变暖对种间关系和敏感植物类群的影响, 并从气候变化背景下全球生态系统敏感度、植物多样性、物种迁移与气候槽(sink areas)、物种适应与灭绝以及物候节律5个方面分析了未来全球变暖影响野生植物的总体趋势。在以后的野生植物保护与管理中, 应确定全球气候变化的植物多样性敏感区, 重点关注对气候变化敏感的植物类群以及气候要素改变植物-动物互作关系中的野生植物, 自然保护区的建设要重点考虑全球气候变化的影响, 通过在全球范围内对野生植物分布和种群变化进行长期、系统的追踪监测, 建立有效的数据库, 发展野生植物迁地保护的保育技术及信息网络, 发展有关野生植物对全球气候变化响应的量化指标及相应的模型。最后提出应将全球气候变化下野生植物保护与管理列入相关基金会的研究重点。     

气候变化下极端高温对昆虫种群影响的研究进展

全球平均温度升高导致极端高温事件发生幅度、频率和持续时间增加,对生物和生态系统造成显著影响.以往气候变暖与昆虫种群关系的研究多关注平均温度的变化,常导致过高地估计了温度升高对昆虫的正面作用,而忽视了自然界存在的极端高温的不利影响.本文综述了气候变化下极端高温对昆虫种群地理分布、种群统计参数和种群增长、行为及种间关系等影响的研究进展.极端温度通过限定昆虫的适宜温度阈限和耐受温度范围决定其在不同纬度、海拔和景观地区的分布.极端高温通过即时和后续效应抑制昆虫的发育、存活、繁殖等核心生命参数,进而改变了昆虫种群统计参数和种群增长.极端高温可通过影响昆虫的体温调节、取食及扩散等行为改变其发育、繁殖等核心生命参数.昆虫对极端高温的反应具有物种特异性,不同种类昆虫对气候变化的响应不同,导致相对优势度、群落结构、食物链等种间关系发生变化,进而影响生态系统的功能.目前关于极端高温对昆虫种群影响的研究多关注发生在夏季的热浪天气和日间极端高温.气候变化导致温度的升高在季节间具有非对称性,发生在春、秋、冬季节相对的极端高温对昆虫种群未来发展的影响将是未来该领域研究的重点.     

北京天坛公园鸟类群落的动态变化研究

近11 年来在北京天坛公园进行鸟类调查, 共记录鸟类166 种, 隶属14 目47 科。研究得出以下结论: (1)天坛公园鸟类群落多样性指数春、秋季高于夏、冬季; (2)公园鸟类群落相似度与植物种类关系密切, 植物多样, 鸟类丰富; (3)公园环境对鸟类的分布、群落组成及种群数量影响明显, 受游人活动的影响, 部分迁徙鸟分布范围缩小, 种群数量减少; 树木种类多样, 受游人影响较小的区域则记录到了公园内近7 成的鸟种。研究首次报道了11 年来长耳鸮的种群变化情况。     

自然保护区生态旅游对野生动物的影响

目前中国的很多自然保护区开展了生态旅游,但这类活动对野生动物的影响研究却十分薄弱,因此十分有必要在介绍欧美、澳洲学者的研究进展基础上,针对我国的研究现状,提出该领域的研究方向、监测和管理策略.自然保护区的生态旅游活动主要有野生动物观赏、徒步行走、摄影、野外宿营、山地车或雪地车、电动或机动艇游湖、溪涧漂流、环境教育、社区访问等,旅游活动类型、范围、强度、时空分布等是影响对野生动物干扰大小的主要因素.生态旅游对野生动物的影响包括直接影响(个体的行为反应和生理指标改变、繁殖力降低、种群分布和物种组成的改变等)和间接影响(生境破坏、外来种散布和环境污染等).国外生态旅游对鸟类的影响研究较多,主要集中鸟类的惊飞反应、取食、能量消耗、繁殖等方面;对兽类影响的研究主要集中在行为、生理指标改变、种群数量等方面.我国未来的研究应注重收集基础性研究数据和深入探讨一些理论与应用问题,要运用多种技术手段对自然保护区野生动物的行为、生理、种群动态、物种多样性、生境质量、游客的时空分布、态度和行为等进行长期监测,而后将其结果应用到野生动物、生境以及游客的管理决策中去.另外,研究中应重视自然科学和社会科学的多学科交叉融合.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change influence broad‐scale avian population declines

Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects.     

Impacts of climate change on avian populations

This review focuses on the impacts of climate change on population dynamics. I introduce the MUP (Measuring, Understanding, and Predicting) approach, which provides a general framework where an enhanced understanding of climate‐population processes, along with improved long‐term data, are merged into coherent projections of future population responses to climate change. This approach can be applied to any species, but this review illustrates its benefit using birds as examples. Birds are one of the best‐studied groups and a large number of studies have detected climate impacts on vital rates (i.e., life history traits, such as survival, maturation, or breeding, affecting changes in population size and composition) and population abundance. These studies reveal multifaceted effects of climate with direct, indirect, time‐lagged, and nonlinear effects. However, few studies integrate these effects into a climate‐dependent population model to understand the respective role of climate variables and their components (mean state, variability, extreme) on population dynamics. To quantify how populations cope with climate change impacts, I introduce a new universal variable: the ‘population robustness to climate change.’ The comparison of such robustness, along with prospective and retrospective analysis may help to identify the major climate threats and characteristics of threatened avian species. Finally, studies projecting avian population responses to future climate change predicted by IPCC‐class climate models are rare. Population projections hinge on selecting a multiclimate model ensemble at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales and integrating both radiative forcing and internal variability in climate with fully specified uncertainties in both demographic and climate processes.     

Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species

Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species'' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.     

The ecology of emerging infectious diseases in migratory birds: an assessment of the role of climate change and priorities for future research

Pathogens that are maintained by wild birds occasionally jump to human hosts, causing considerable loss of life and disruption to global commerce. Preliminary evidence suggests that climate change and human movements and commerce may have played a role in recent range expansions of avian pathogens. Since the magnitude of climate change in the coming decades is predicted to exceed climatic changes in the recent past, there is an urgent need to determine the extent to which climate change may drive the spread of disease by avian migrants. In this review, we recommend actions intended to mitigate the impact of emergent pathogens of migratory birds on biodiversity and public health. Increased surveillance that builds upon existing bird banding networks is required to conclusively establish a link between climate and avian pathogens and to prevent pathogens with migratory bird reservoirs from spilling over to humans.     

The Moran effect revisited: spatial population synchrony under global warming

The world is spatially autocorrelated. Both abiotic and biotic properties are more similar among neighboring than distant locations, and their temporal co-fluctuations also decrease with distance. P. A. P. Moran realized the ecological importance of such ‘spatial synchrony’ when he predicted that isolated populations subject to identical log-linear density-dependent processes should have the same correlation in fluctuations of abundance as the correlation in environmental noise. The contribution from correlated weather to synchrony of populations has later been coined the ‘Moran effect’. Here, we investigate the potential role of the Moran effect in large-scale ecological outcomes of global warming. Although difficult to disentangle from dispersal and species interaction effects, there is compelling evidence from across taxa and ecosystems that spatial environmental synchrony causes population synchrony. Given this, and the accelerating number of studies reporting climate change effects on local population dynamics, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the implications of global warming for spatial population synchrony. However, a handful of studies of insects, birds, plants, mammals and marine plankton indicate decadal-scale changes in population synchrony due to trends in environmental synchrony. We combine a literature review with modeling to outline potential pathways for how global warming, through changes in the mean, variability and spatial autocorrelation of weather, can impact population synchrony over time. This is particularly likely under a ‘generalized Moran effect’, i.e. when relaxing Moran's strict assumption of identical log-linear density-dependence, which is highly unrealistic in the wild. Furthermore, climate change can influence spatial population synchrony indirectly, through its effects on dispersal and species interactions. Because changes in population synchrony may cascade through food-webs, we argue that the (generalized) Moran effect is key to understanding and predicting impacts of global warming on large-scale ecological dynamics, with implications for extinctions, conservation and management.     

Rapid warming is associated with population decline among terrestrial birds and mammals globally

Animal populations have undergone substantial declines in recent decades. These declines have occurred alongside rapid, human‐driven environmental change, including climate warming. An association between population declines and environmental change is well established, yet there has been relatively little analysis of the importance of the rates of climate warming and its interaction with conversion to anthropogenic land use in causing population declines. Here we present a global assessment of the impact of rapid climate warming and anthropogenic land use conversion on 987 populations of 481 species of terrestrial birds and mammals since 1950. We collated spatially referenced population trends of at least 5 years’ duration from the Living Planet database and used mixed effects models to assess the association of these trends with observed rates of climate warming, rates of conversion to anthropogenic land use, body mass, and protected area coverage. We found that declines in population abundance for both birds and mammals are greater in areas where mean temperature has increased more rapidly, and that this effect is more pronounced for birds. However, we do not find a strong effect of conversion to anthropogenic land use, body mass, or protected area coverage. Our results identify a link between rapid warming and population declines, thus supporting the notion that rapid climate warming is a global threat to biodiversity.     

An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land‐cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction

Land‐cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land‐cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981–1985 and 2001–2005 are correlated with land‐cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land‐cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land‐cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land‐cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land‐cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated with heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land‐cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction.