气候变化对鸟类影响的研究进展

气候变化对生物多样性的影响已成为热点问题.本文以鸟类为研究对象,根据鸟类受气候变化影响的最新研究成果,综述了气候变化对鸟类的分布、物候和种群等方面的影响.结果表明,在气候变化影响下,鸟类分布向高纬度或高海拔区移动,速度比以往加快,繁殖地和非繁殖地的分布移动变化并不相同,并且多数分布范围缩小,物候期发生复杂变化,种群数量下降明显.文章还讨论了该领域主要的预测和评估方法,以及进化适应等生物因素对气候变化预测结果的影响,除了以往单一的相关性模型外,目前应用最多的是集成模型,而未来最具发展潜力的是机理模型.进化适应方面的研究近来取得新进展,证实了生物个体积极应对气候变化影响的事实,从而对人为模型预测的准确性带来挑战.文章最后进行了总结和展望,结合国外研究经验和我国实际情况,提出一些建议:由于气候变化的影响及其研究是长期性的,从而对鸟类的历史监测数据提出很高的要求,当前我国急需建立一套长期、全面和可靠的鸟类数据监测系统;此外,人们需要综合评估现有各种预测模型的可靠性,在此基础上探索新的研究方法.

The impact of climate change on birds: a review

The impact of climate change on biodiversity has become a hot issue.This paper reviews the ef-fects of climate change on avian distribution,phenology and population dynamics according to the results of the latest research.Due to climate change,bird distributions have shifted towards high-latitude and high-altitude areas,which is changing more quickly than before.However,the breeding area which bird lived was changed different from the non-breedings.In addition,the ranges of many species have decreased,the timing of oviposition and migration have become more variable,and populations of many species have de-clined.We also summarize the major methods used to forecast the effects of future climate scenarios on birds,and discuss how evolution,biotic interactions and dispersal ability affect the results of predictions.We found that more and more scientists using the integrated models than the single ones nowadays,a new advice using the mechanistic models has been proved well,and evolution has become a big problem for the predic-tion from the latest researches.The suggestions are as follows:(1) a system of avian protection should be es-tablished as soon as possible in China.(2) people should devise and evaluate some models in research work.