UK37沉积地层记录:三门湾海表温度(SST)和EI Ni(n)o现象及其对大型底栖动物生命活动的影响

应用U^K37估算三门湾（1916～2003年）表层海水温度,SST波动范围在15．97～18．00℃之间,年平均为17．03℃,此计算值比当年实测海水全年平均温度低3．52℃,与秋季海水实测温度相接近。研究显示出,三门湾的EINino事件在大尺度上与东太平洋一样,均受制于气候影响因素,但在变化尺度上又受到地理位置和地方性气候（季风）的影响,事件在形式和年代上相互对应,但其颤动幅度远不如东太平洋强烈。同时通过比较EINino期间（2003／2002）和非EINino期间（2006／2005）大型底栖生物的群落结构变动信号、生物量、栖息密度以及物种多样性等,研究显示出三门湾若干大型底栖生物对EINino事件产生响应迹象,若干大型底栖生物对EINino的响应主要是通过海洋环流的影响来体现生命和生态效应的,主要表现在改变了底栖生物种类数和多样性、以及生命活动及栖息密度分布模式。在EINino影响下,台湾暖流人侵势力加强,2003／2002年底栖生物群落种类数减少与海流人侵及盐度密切相关;通过与同海域浮游动物对比研究,三门湾海域浮游动物和底栖生物对EINino的生态响应均较大,前者可能与三门湾海域水域较浅,外海暖水从底部人侵改变水温和盐度,直接影响底栖生物的生态环境,致使种类数大大减少有关;而后者由于人侵暖水强度增大,携带大量暖水性浮游动物,呈现出在EINino时期浮游动物种类数、生物量和丰度有偏高趋势。     

三门湾浮游动物的季节变动及微型浮游动物摄食影响

2002年8月、11月、2003年2月和5月,在三门湾进行了4个航次生物、化学和水文等专业综合调查。根据采集的浮游动物样品的分析鉴定及海上现场实验结果,对浮游动物的群落组成、生物量、丰度、多样性指数的分布和季节变动及其浮游动物对浮游植物的摄食影响进行研究。结果表明,三门湾浮游动物有67属,89种,16类浮游幼体,主要可划分为4个生态类群：以近岸低盐类群为主,其优势种为中华哲水蚤Calanus sinicus、真刺唇角水蚤Labidocera etwhaeta、捷氏歪水蚤Tortanus derjugini、太平洋纺锤水蚤Acartiapacifica、中华假磷虾Pseudeuphausia sinica和百陶箭虫Sagitta bedoti等。半咸水河口类群、暖水性外海类群和广布种相对较少。浮游动物生物量和丰度的平面分布趋势除了夏季有所差异外,其它季节基本一致。2月份和5月份,浮游动物生物量和丰度,从湾顶向湾口呈逐渐增加趋势;8月份,湾口区生物量最高,而丰度高值区出现在湾顶部;11月份,生物量和丰度的平面分布相对均匀。浮游动物种类多样性指数有明显的季节变化,其动态变化与浮游动物种数和丰度的变化一致。微型浮游动物对浮游植物存在摄食压力,且有季节变化,摄食率的变化在0．18．0．68d^-1,微型浮游动物的摄食率低于相同季节的浮游植物生长率。微型浮游动物对浮游植物摄食压力的变化范围为16．1％-49．1％d^-1,对初级生产力摄食压力的变化在58．3％-83．6％d^-1。11月份,微型浮游动物对浮游植物和初级生产力的摄食压力均出现最高值。     

The impact of El Niño events on the pelagic food chain in the northern California Current

The zooplankton of the northern California Current are typically characterized by an abundance of lipid‐rich copepods that support rapid growth and survival of ecologically, commercially, and recreationally valued fish, birds, and mammals. Disruption of this food chain and reduced ecosystem productivity are often associated with climatic variability such as El Niño events. We examined the variability in timing, magnitude, and duration of positive temperature anomalies and changes in copepod species composition in the northern California Current in relation to 10 tropical El Niño events. Measurable impacts on mesozooplankton of the northern California Current were observed during seven of 10 of these events. The occurrence of anomalously warm water and the response of the copepod community was rapid (lag of zero to 2 months) following the initiation of canonical Eastern Pacific (EP) events, but delayed (lag of 2–8 months) following ‘Modoki’ Central Pacific (CP) events. The variable lags in the timing of a physical and biological response led to impacts in the northern California Current peaking in winter during EP events and in the spring during CP events. The magnitude and duration of the temperature and copepod anomalies were strongly and positively related to the magnitude and duration of El Niño events, but were also sensitive to the phase of the lower frequency Pacific Decadal Oscillation. When fisheries managers and biological oceanographers are faced with the prospect of a future El Niño event, prudent management and observation will require consideration of the background oceanographic conditions, the type of event, and both the magnitude and duration of the event when assessing the potential physical and biological impacts on the northern California Current.     

Moisture status during a strong El Niño explains a tropical montane cloud forest’s upper limit

Growing evidence suggests short-duration climate events may drive community structure and composition more directly than long-term climate means, particularly at ecotones where taxa are close to their physiological limits. Here we use an empirical habitat model to evaluate the role of microclimate during a strong El Niño in structuring a tropical montane cloud forest’s upper limit and composition in Hawai‘i. We interpolate climate surfaces, derived from a high-density network of climate stations, to permanent vegetation plots. Climatic predictor variables include (1) total rainfall, (2) mean relative humidity, and (3) mean temperature representing non-El Niño periods and a strong El Niño drought. Habitat models explained species composition within the cloud forest with non-El Niño rainfall; however, the ecotone at the cloud forest’s upper limit was modeled with relative humidity during a strong El Niño drought and secondarily with non-El Niño rainfall. This forest ecotone may be particularly responsive to strong, short-duration climate variability because taxa here, particularly the isohydric dominant Metrosideros polymorpha, are near their physiological limits. Overall, this study demonstrates moisture’s overarching influence on a tropical montane ecosystem, and suggests that short-term climate events affecting moisture status are particularly relevant at tropical ecotones. This study further suggests that predicting the consequences of climate change here, and perhaps in other tropical montane settings, will rely on the skill and certainty around future climate models of regional rainfall, relative humidity, and El Niño.     

El Niño,Climate, and Cholera Associations in Piura,Peru, 1991–2001: A Wavelet Analysis

In Peru, it was hypothesized that epidemic cholera in 1991 was linked to El Niño, the warm phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. While previous studies demonstrated an association in 1997–1998, using cross-sectional data, they did not assess the consistency of this relationship across the decade. Thus, how strong or variable an El Niño–cholera relationship was in Peru or whether El Niño triggered epidemic cholera early in the decade remains unknown. In this study, wavelet and mediation analyses were used to characterize temporal patterns among El Niño, local climate variables (rainfall, river discharge, and air temperature), and cholera incidence in Piura, Peru from 1991 to 2001 and to estimate the mediating effects of local climate on El Niño–cholera relationships. The study hypothesis is that El Niño-related connections with cholera in Piura were transient and interconnected via local climate pathways. Overall, our findings provide evidence that a strong El Niño–cholera link, mediated by local hydrology, existed in the latter part of the 1990s but found no evidence of an El Niño association in the earlier part of the decade, suggesting that El Niño may not have precipitated cholera emergence in Piura. Further examinations of cholera epicenters in Peru are recommended to support these results in Piura. For public health planning, the results may improve existing efforts that utilize El Niño monitoring for preparedness during future climate-related extremes in the region.     

Potential impacts of a future persistent El Niño or La Niña on three subspecies of Australian butterflies

One of the major uncertainties of 21st century climate change is the potential for shifts to the intensity and frequency of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Although this phenomenon is known to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems regionally and globally, the biological consequences of climate change‐driven shifts in future ENSO events have been unexplored. Here, we investigate the potential impacts that a persistent El Niño, La Niña, or ‘Neutral' phase may have on species distributions. Using MaxEnt, we model the distribution of climatically suitable habitat for three northeast Australian butterfly subspecies (Doleschallia bisaltide australis, Hypolimnas alimena lamina, and Mycalesis terminus terminus) across the three ENSO phases. We find that the spatial extent and quality of habitat are lowest under conditions that would characterize a persistent El Niño (hot/dry). In contrast, suitable habitat is broadest under the warm/wet conditions associated with La Niña. Statistical analyses of the difference between pair‐wise combinations of suitability maps using Hellinger distance showed that projections for each subspecies and ENSO phase combination were significantly different from other combinations. The resilience of these, and other, butterfly (sub)species to changes in ENSO will be influenced by fluctuations in the strength of these events, availability of refugia, and life‐history characteristics. However, the population dynamics of wet‐ and dry‐season phenotypes of M. t. terminus and physiological limitations to high temperatures suggest that this subspecies, in particular, may have limited resilience should the strength and frequency of El Niño events increase.     

Climate shifts the interaction web of a marine plankton community

Climatic effects in the ocean at the community level are poorly described, yet accurate predictions about ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions rely on understanding biotic responses in a food‐web context to support knowledge about direct biotic responses to the physical environment. Here we conduct time‐series analyses with multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models of marine zooplankton abundance in the Northern California Current from 1996 to 2009 to determine the influence of climate variables on zooplankton community interactions. Autoregressive models showed different community interactions during warm vs. cool ocean climate conditions. Negative ecological interactions among zooplankton groups characterized the major warm phase during the time series, whereas during the major cool phase, ocean transport largely structured zooplankton communities. Local environmental conditions (sea temperature) and large‐scale climate indices (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) were associated with changes in zooplankton abundance across the full time series. Secondary environmental correlates of zooplankton abundance varied with ocean climate phase, with most support during the warm phase for upwelling as a covariate, and most support during the cool phase for salinity. Through simultaneous quantitation of community interactions and environmental covariates, we show that marine zooplankton community structure varies with climate, suggesting that predictions about ecosystem responses to future climate scenarios in the Northern California Current should include potential changes to the base of the pelagic food.     

Climate–growth relationships of the dominant tree species from semi-arid savanna woodland in Ethiopia

Long-term climate–growth relationships, were examined in tree rings of four co-occurring tree species from semi-arid Acacia savanna woodlands in Ethiopia. The main purpose of the study was to prove the presence of annual tree rings, evaluate the relationship between radial growth and climate parameters, and evaluate the association of El Niño and drought years in Ethiopia. The results showed that all species studied form distinct growth boundaries, though differences in distinctiveness were revealed among the species. Tree rings of the evergreen Balanites aegyptiaca were separated by vessels surrounding a thin parenchyma band and the growth boundary of the deciduous acacias was characterized by thin parenchyma bands. The mean annual diameter increment ranged from 3.6 to 5.0 mm. Acacia senegal and Acacia seyal showed more enhanced growth than Acacia tortilis and B. aegyptiaca. High positive correlations were found between the tree-ring width chronologies and precipitation data, and all species showed similar response to external climate forcing, which supports the formation of one tree-ring per year. Strong declines in tree-ring width correlated remarkably well with past El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and drought/famine periods in Ethiopia. Spectral analysis of the master tree-ring chronology indicated occurrences of periodic drought events, which fall within the spectral peak equivalent to 2–8 years. Our results proved the strong linkage between tree-ring chronologies and climate, which sheds light on the potential of dendrochronological studies developing in Ethiopia. The outcome of this study has important implications for paleoclimatic reconstructions and in restoration of degraded lands.     

A boundary current drives synchronous growth of marine fishes across tropical and temperate latitudes

Entrainment of growth patterns of multiple species to single climatic drivers can lower ecosystem resilience and increase the risk of species extinction during stressful climatic events. However, predictions of the effects of climate change on the productivity and dynamics of marine fishes are hampered by a lack of historical data on growth patterns. We use otolith biochronologies to show that the strength of a boundary current, modulated by the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, accounted for almost half of the shared variance in annual growth patterns of five of six species of tropical and temperate marine fishes across 23° of latitude (3000 km) in Western Australia. Stronger flow during La Niña years drove increased growth of five species, whereas weaker flow during El Niño years reduced growth. Our work is the first to link the growth patterns of multiple fishes with a single oceanographic/climate phenomenon at large spatial scales and across multiple climate zones, habitat types, trophic levels and depth ranges. Extreme La Niña and El Niño events are predicted to occur more frequently in the future and these are likely to have implications for these vulnerable ecosystems, such as a limited capacity of the marine taxa to recover from stressful climatic events.     

Effects of inter-annual temperature variability,including ENSO and post-ENSO events,on reproductive traits in the tunicate Pyura praeputialis

Reproduction in tunicates is considered to be particularly vulnerable to changes in seawater temperature. In the present study we investigated the effects of sea surface temperature and temperature anomalies on reproductive traits of the non-native sessile tunicate Pyura praeputialis. Reproductive traits of this species were investigated over the course of 67 months, based on samples collected at two localities (eastern and western shorelines) of the Bay of Antofagasta. The study period included years with different oceanic and atmospheric conditions: a warm event, El Niño (June 1997 to July 1998); a cold event, La Niña (August 1998 to December 2000); and post-La Niña (January 2000 to December 2002). We compared two common indices (condition and gonadosomatic) and histological sections to evaluate the maximum reproduction index of this introduced species that dominates a large part of the rocky intertidal habitat in the Bay of Antofagasta. We found sexually mature individuals all year-round and a decrease in both reproductive indices matching the reduction in the sea surface temperature during the austral autumn and winter months. The results suggest that gonad development in this species is sensitive to sea surface temperature and thermal anomalies. We conclude that future thermal anomalies or projected global average sea surface warming associated with climate change might have no negative consequences on these reproductive traits of P. praeputialis. This suggests this species is ecologically resilient and that the ecosystem services that this species provides for other invertebrate and algal species will be maintained.     

Preliminary Evidence of the Importance of ENSO in Modifying Food Availability for White‐tailed Deer in a Mexican Tropical Dry Forest1

The influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall and its possible effect on availability of food for white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in a tropical dry forest in the Pacific coast of Mexico was studied. From 1977 to 2003 there were three significant El Niño and La Niña events. During El Niño years rainfall decreased during the wet season ( June to October) and increased during the dry season (November to May), with the opposite effect during La Niña years. Plant diversity was monitored in permanent plots during the wet and dry seasons of 1989–1993. The results provide evidence that ENSO events affect deer food availability, particularly in the dry season.     

The interacting effects of food,spring temperature,and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird

Although long‐distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double‐brooded long‐distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark–recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late‐season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black‐throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species.     

El Niño,Host Plant Growth,and Migratory Butterfly Abundance in a Changing Climate

In the wet forests of Panama, El Niño typically brings a more prolonged and severe dry season. Interestingly, many trees and lianas that comprise the wet forests increase their productivity as a response to El Niño. Here, we quantify the abundance of migrating Marpesia chiron butterflies over 17 yr and the production of new leaves of their hostplants over 9 yr to test the generality of the El Niño migration syndrome, i.e., whether increased abundance of migrating insects and productivity of their food plants are associated with El Niño and La Niña events. We find that the quantity of M. chiron migrating across the Panama Canal was directly proportional to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly of the Pacific Ocean, which characterizes El Niño and La Niña events. We also find that production of new leaves by its larval host trees, namely Brosimum alicastrum, Artocarpus altilis, and Ficus citrifolia, was directly proportional to the SST anomaly, with greater leaf flushing occurring during the period of the annual butterfly migration that followed an El Niño event. Combining these and our previously published results for the migratory butterfly Aphrissa statira and its host lianas, we conclude that dry season rainfall and photosynthetically active radiation can serve as primary drivers of larval food production and insect population outbreaks in Neotropical wet forests, with drier years resulting in enhanced plant productivity and herbivore abundance. Insect populations should closely track changes in both frequency and amplitude of the El Niño Southern Oscillation with climate change.     

Interannual variation in methane emissions from tropical wetlands triggered by repeated El Niño Southern Oscillation

Methane (CH₄) emissions from tropical wetlands contribute 60%–80% of global natural wetland CH₄ emissions. Decreased wetland CH₄ emissions can act as a negative feedback mechanism for future climate warming and vice versa. The impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on CH₄ emissions from wetlands remains poorly quantified at both regional and global scales, and El Niño events are expected to become more severe based on climate models’ projections. We use a process‐based model of global wetland CH₄ emissions to investigate the impacts of the ENSO on CH₄ emissions in tropical wetlands for the period from 1950 to 2012. The results show that CH₄ emissions from tropical wetlands respond strongly to repeated ENSO events, with negative anomalies occurring during El Niño periods and with positive anomalies occurring during La Niña periods. An approximately 8‐month time lag was detected between tropical wetland CH₄ emissions and ENSO events, which was caused by the combined time lag effects of ENSO events on precipitation and temperature over tropical wetlands. The ENSO can explain 49% of interannual variations for tropical wetland CH₄ emissions. Furthermore, relative to neutral years, changes in temperature have much stronger effects on tropical wetland CH₄ emissions than the changes in precipitation during ENSO periods. The occurrence of several El Niño events contributed to a lower decadal mean growth rate in atmospheric CH₄ concentrations throughout the 1980s and 1990s and to stable atmospheric CH₄ concentrations from 1999 to 2006, resulting in negative feedback to global warming.     

“El Niño” events recorded in dry-forest species of the lowlands of northwest Peru

The northwest coast of Peru (5°S, 80°W) is very sensitive to and impacted by the climate phenomenon El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Though mainly desert, this warm, dry region contains an equatorial dry forest. We report the first dendrochronological studies from this region and identify several species that have dendrochronological potential. Short ring-width chronologies of Palo Santo (Bursera graveolens) show a well-developed response to the ENSO signal over the last 50 years and good inter-site correlations. Preliminary isotopic studies in Algarrobo (Prosopis sp.) also show evidence of the 1997–98 El Niño event. ENSO events have a strong effect on the variability in the growth of several species and thereby on the economy of rural communities where the wood is used for housing, cooking, furniture, tools, fodder and medicinal uses. The extensive use of wood in archeological sites also offers the possibility of ultimately developing longer records for some of these species.     

The effects of El Niño–La Niña on reproductive parameters of elephant seals feeding in the Bellingshausen Sea

Aim To assess the impacts of El Niño–La Niña events on the pup weaning mass and diet of female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) feeding in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica, and to understand the ecological processes that drive these impacts. Location Atlantic southern elephant seal weaning mass and diet were measured at King George Island (62º14′ S, 58º30′ W). Feeding areas for pregnant female seals from King George Island are located west of Alexander Island in the Bellingshausen Sea. Methods Data on weaning mass were collected between 1985 and 1994 during the breeding season (September–November). Moulting females were anaesthetized and cephalopod beaks were isolated and identified from stomach contents obtained from stomach lavages. Sea‐surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) data for the ‘El Niño 3.4’ geographical region (5º N–5º S, 120º W–170º W) were used to define El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event years (grouped as El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) as well as the strength of each ENSO event year. Using data from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction, temperature, sea ice concentration and atmospheric pressure anomalies in the Bellingshausen Sea were calculated from March to August, corresponding to the feeding period of pregnant female seals. Results Positive temperature anomalies and negative pressure anomalies in the Bellingshausen Sea were observed during La Niña years and negative temperature anomalies and positive pressure anomalies during El Niño years. These data correlate with sea ice concentration anomalies, which are highly negative during La Niña years and highly positive during El Niño years. Warm temperature conditions in the Bellingshausen Sea during La Niña years are strongly related to both higher weaning mass in elephant seals and to an increase in squid beaks in the stomach contents of females. Main conclusions It is possible that higher elephant seal weaning masses in La Niña years correlate with warmer waters in the Bellingshausen Sea leading to the rapid growth of squid and their more frequent descents to depths frequented by elephant seals. This results in increased predation by pregnant females, leading to a greater mass among weaned pups. This hypothesis may guide future research about interactions between climate and the marine biosphere.     

Extreme climatic events reduce ocean productivity and larval supply in a tropical reef ecosystem

Increasing ocean temperatures due to global warming are predicted to have negative effects on coral reef fishes. El Niño events are associated with elevated water temperatures at large spatial (1000s of km) and temporal (annual) scales, providing environmental conditions that enable temperature effects on reef fishes to be tested directly. We compared remote sensing data of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, surface current flow and chlorophyll‐a (Chl‐a) concentration with monthly patterns in larval supply of coral reef fishes in nearshore waters around Rangiroa Atoll (French Polynesia) from January 1996 to March 2000. This time included an intense El Niño (April 1997–May 1998) event between two periods of La Niña (January–March 1996 and August 1998–March 2000) conditions. There was a strong relationship between the timing of the El Niño event, current flow, ocean productivity (as measured by Chl‐a) and larval supply. In the warm conditions of the event, there was an increase in the SST anomaly index up to 3.5 °C above mean values and a decrease in the strength of the westward surface current toward the reef. These conditions coincided with low concentrations of Chl‐a (mean: 0.06 mg m^?3, SE ± 0.004) and a 51% decline in larval supply from mean values. Conversely, during strong La Niña conditions when SST anomalies were almost 2 °C below mean values and there was a strong westward surface current, Chl‐a concentration was 150% greater than mean values and larval supply was 249% greater. A lag in larval supply suggested that productivity maybe affecting both the production of larvae by adults and larval survival. Our results suggest that warming temperatures in the world's oceans will have negative effects on the reproduction of reef fishes and survival of their larvae within the plankton, ultimately impacting on the replenishment of benthic populations.     

First record of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cymatium keenae</Emphasis> Beu, 1970 (Mollusca: Ranellidae) from Antofagasta Bay,northern Chile,in connection with El Niño events

Cymatium (Monoplex) keenae Beu, 1970, the neopolitan triton, is a Ranellidae predator distributed in tropical and subtropical waters. In this study we report this species for the first time in Antofagasta Bay, northern Chile. Adult specimens have been found since June 2003 at depths ranging from 5 to 15 m in La Rinconada Marine Reserve (23°28′18″S, 70°30′46″W) in Antofagasta Bay, near a scallop farming facility. The present findings clearly extend the geographic range of C. keenae, which previously had been reported from La Paz, Gulf of California (Mexico) to Galápagos Islands (Ecuador) in the SE Pacific. Previous evidence strongly suggests that the intrusion of this tropical immigrant can be related to warm El Niño episodes. We analyze the key role of the oceanographic characteristics of Antofagasta Bay as potential temporal refuge for this species.     

El Niño and related monsoon drought signals in 523-year-long ring width records of teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) trees from south India

We present a 523-year (A.D. 1481–2003) tree-ring width index chronology of Teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) from Kerala, Southern India, prepared from three forest sites. Dendroclimatological investigations indicate a significant positive relationship between the tree-ring index series and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and related global parameters like the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). A higher frequency of occurrence of low tree growth is observed in years of deficient Indian monsoon rainfall (droughts) associated with El Niño since the late 18th century. Prior to that time, many low tree growth years are detected during known El Niño events, probably related to deficient Indian monsoon rainfall. The general relationship between ISMR and El Niño is known to be negative and the spatial correlations between our Kerala tree-ring chronology and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Niño regions follow similar patterns as those for ISMR. This relationship indicates strong ENSO-related monsoon signals in the tree-ring records. These tree-ring chronologies with a high degree of sensitivity to monsoon climate are useful tools to understand the vagaries of monsoon rainfall prior to the period of recorded data.     

Fluctuations of Vanessa cardui butterfly abundance with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation climatic variables

Annual 4th of July Butterfly Count data spanning more than 20 years are examined to explore Vanessa cardui (Painted Lady) population fluctuations with ENSO (El Niño) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices. California, Colorado and Nebraska censuses exhibit a strong positive correlation with the strong El Niño events of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 and the weaker event of 1991–1992. Regression analysis shows the population fluctuations are strongly coupled to climate variations on both short (El Niño) and longer (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) time scales. Recognizing the sensitivity to these time scales is important for predicting longer‐term global climate change effects.