Dynamics of a multihost pathogen in a carnivore community

1. We provide the first theoretical analysis of multihost disease dynamics to incorporate social behaviour and contrasting rates of within- and between-group disease transmission. 2. A stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model of disease transmission involving one to three sympatric species was built to mimic the 1994 Serengeti canine distemper virus outbreak, which infected a variety of carnivores with widely ranging social structures. The model successfully mimicked the erratic and discontinuous spatial pattern of lion deaths observed in the Serengeti lions under a reasonable range of parameter values, but only when one to two other species repeatedly transmitted the virus to the lion population. 3. The outputs from our model suggest several principles that will apply to most directly transmitted multihost pathogens: (i) differences in social structure can significantly influence the size, velocity and spatial pattern of a multihost epidemic; and (ii) social structures that permit higher intraspecific neighbour-to-neighbour transmission are the most likely to transmit disease to other species; whereas (iii) species with low neighbour-to-neighbour intraspecific transmission suffer the greatest costs from interspecific transmission.     

Tuberculosis in Tanzanian wildlife

Bovine tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium bovis, is a pathogen of growing concern in free-ranging wildlife in Africa, but little is known about the disease in Tanzanian wildlife. Here, we report the infection status of Mycobacterium bovis in a range of wildlife species sampled from protected areas in northern Tanzania. M. bovis was isolated from 11.1% (2/18) migratory wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) and 11.1% (1/9) topi (Damaliscus lunatus) sampled systematically in 2000 during a meat cropping program in the Serengeti ecosystem, and from one wildebeest and one lesser kudu (Tragelaphus imberbis) killed by sport hunters adjacent to Tarangire National Park. A tuberculosis antibody enzyme immunoassay (EIA) was used to screen serum samples collected from 184 Serengeti lions (Panthera leo) and 19 lions from Ngorongoro Crater sampled between 1985 and 2000. Samples from 212 ungulates collected throughout the protected area network between 1998 and 2001 also were tested by EIA. Serological assays detected antibodies to M. bovis in 4% of Serengeti lions; one positive lion was sampled in 1984. Antibodies were detected in one of 17 (6%) buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in Tarangire and one of 41 (2%) wildebeest in the Serengeti. This study confirms for the first time the presence of bovine tuberculosis in wildlife of northern Tanzania, but further investigation is required to assess the impact on wildlife populations and the role of different wildlife species in maintenance and transmission.     

Rabies Virus and Canine Distemper Virus in Wild and Domestic Carnivores in Northern Kenya: Are Domestic Dogs the Reservoir?

Rabies virus (RV) and canine distemper virus (CDV) can cause significant mortality in wild carnivore populations, and RV threatens human lives. We investigated serological patterns of exposure to CDV and RV in domestic dogs (Canis familiaris), African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus), black-backed jackals (Canis mesomelas), spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta), striped hyenas (Hyaena hyaena) and African lions (Panthera leo), over a 10-year period, in a Kenyan rangeland to assess the role domestic dogs may play in the transmission dynamics of these two important canid pathogens. Observed patterns of RV exposure suggested that repeated introduction, rather than maintenance, occurred in the wild carnivore species studied. However, RV appeared to have been maintained in domestic dogs: exposure was more likely in domestic dogs than in the wild carnivores; was detected consistently over time without variation among years; and was detected in juveniles (≤1-year-old) as well as adults (>1-year-old). We conclude that this domestic dog population could be a RV reservoir. By contrast, the absence of evidence of CDV exposure for each carnivore species examined in the study area, for specific years, suggested repeated introduction, rather than maintenance, and that CDV may require a larger reservoir population than RV. This reservoir could be a larger domestic dog population; another wildlife species; or a “metareservoir” consisting of multiple interconnected carnivore populations. Our findings suggest that RV risks to people and wild carnivores might be controlled by domestic dog vaccination, but that CDV control, if required, would need to target the species of concern.     

Insights into the Management of Large Carnivores for Profitable Wildlife-Based Land Uses in African Savannas

Large African predators, especially lions (Panthera leo) and leopards (Panthera pardus), are financially valuable for ecotourism and trophy hunting operations on land also utilized for the production of other wildlife species for the same purpose. Predation of ungulates used for trophy hunting can create conflict with landholders and trade off thus exists between the value of lions and leopards and their impact on ungulate populations. Therefore productionist and conservation trade-offs are complexly graded and difficult to resolve. We investigated this with a risk-benefit analysis on a large private wildlife production area in Zimbabwe. Our model showed that lions result in substantial financial costs through predation on wild ungulates that may not be offset by profits from hunting them, whereas the returns from trophy hunting of leopards are projected to exceed the costs due to leopard predation. In the absence of additional income derived from photo-tourism the number of lions may need to be managed to minimize their impact. Lions drive important ecological processes, but there is a need to balance ecological and financial imperatives on wildlife ranches, community wildlife lands and other categories of multiple use land used for wildlife production. This will ensure the competitiveness of wildlife based land uses relative to alternatives. Our findings may thus be limited to conservancies, community land-use areas and commercial game ranches, which are expansive in Africa, and should not necessarily applied to areas where biodiversity conservation is the primary objective, even if hunting is allowed there.     

Climate extremes promote fatal co-infections during canine distemper epidemics in African lions

Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo) coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five "silent" CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer). As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality events may become increasingly common if climate extremes disrupt historic stable relationships between co-existing pathogens and their susceptible hosts.     

Using Landscape and Bioclimatic Features to Predict the Distribution of Lions,Leopards and Spotted Hyaenas in Tanzania's Ruaha Landscape

Tanzania''s Ruaha landscape is an international priority area for large carnivores, supporting over 10% of the world''s lions and important populations of leopards and spotted hyaenas. However, lack of ecological data on large carnivore distribution and habitat use hinders the development of effective carnivore conservation strategies in this critical landscape. Therefore, the study aimed to (i) identify the most significant ecogeographical variables influencing the potential distribution of lions, leopards and spotted hyaenas across the Ruaha landscape; (ii) identify zones with highest suitability for harbouring those species; and (iii) use species distribution modelling algorithms (SDMs) to define important areas for conservation of large carnivores. Habitat suitability was calculated based on environmental features from georeferenced presence-only carnivore location data. Potential distribution of large carnivores appeared to be strongly influenced by water availability; highly suitable areas were situated close to rivers and experienced above average annual precipitation. Net primary productivity and tree cover also exerted some influence on habitat suitability. All three species showed relatively narrow niche breadth and low tolerance to changes in habitat characteristics. From 21,050 km² assessed, 8.1% (1,702 km²) emerged as highly suitable for all three large carnivores collectively. Of that area, 95.4% (1,624 km²) was located within 30 km of the Park-village border, raising concerns about human-carnivore conflict. This was of particular concern for spotted hyaenas, as they were located significantly closer to the Park boundary than lions and leopards. This study provides the first map of potential carnivore distribution across the globally important Ruaha landscape, and demonstrates that SDMs can be effective for understanding large carnivore habitat requirements in poorly sampled areas. This approach could have relevance for many other important wildlife areas that only have limited, haphazard presence-only data, but which urgently require strategic conservation planning.     

Active responses to outbreaks of infectious wildlife diseases: objectives,strategies and constraints determine feasibility and success

Emerging wildlife diseases are taking a heavy toll on animal and plant species worldwide. Mitigation, particularly in the initial epidemic phase, is hindered by uncertainty about the epidemiology and management of emerging diseases, but also by vague or poorly defined objectives. Here, we use a quantitative analysis to assess how the decision context of mitigation objectives, available strategies and practical constraints influences the decision of whether and how to respond to epidemics in wildlife. To illustrate our approach, we parametrized the model for European fire salamanders affected by Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, and explored different combinations of conservation, containment and budgetary objectives. We found that in approximately half of those scenarios, host removal strategies perform equal to or worse than no management at all during a local outbreak, particularly where removal cannot exclusively target infected individuals. Moreover, the window for intervention shrinks rapidly if an outbreak is detected late or if a response is delayed. Clearly defining the decision context is, therefore, vital to plan meaningful responses to novel outbreaks. Explicitly stating objectives, strategies and constraints, if possible before an outbreak occurs, avoids wasting precious resources and creating false expectations about what can and cannot be achieved during the epidemic phase.     

Sport Hunting,Predator Control and Conservation of Large Carnivores

Sport hunting has provided important economic incentives for conserving large predators since the early 1970''s, but wildlife managers also face substantial pressure to reduce depredation. Sport hunting is an inherently risky strategy for controlling predators as carnivore populations are difficult to monitor and some species show a propensity for infanticide that is exacerbated by removing adult males. Simulation models predict population declines from even moderate levels of hunting in infanticidal species, and harvest data suggest that African countries and U.S. states with the highest intensity of sport hunting have shown the steepest population declines in African lions and cougars over the past 25 yrs. Similar effects in African leopards may have been masked by mesopredator release owing to declines in sympatric lion populations, whereas there is no evidence of overhunting in non-infanticidal populations of American black bears. Effective conservation of these animals will require new harvest strategies and improved monitoring to counter demands for predator control by livestock producers and local communities.     

Developmental changes in pituitary-gonadal function in free-ranging lions (Panthera leo leo) of the Serengeti Plains and Ngorongoro Crater

Pituitary-gonadal function was examined in male lions free-ranging in the Serengeti Plains or geographically isolated in the Ngorongoro Crater of Tanzania. Lions were classified by age as adult (6.1-9.8 years), young adult (3.3-4.5 years) or prepubertal (1.4-1.6 years, Serengeti Plains only). Each animal was anaesthetized and then bled at 5-min intervals for 100 min before and 140 min after i.v. administration of saline or GnRH (1 micrograms/kg body weight). Basal serum LH and FSH concentrations were similar (P greater than 0.05) among age classes and between locations. In Serengeti Plains lions, net LH peak concentrations after GnRH were approximately 35% greater (P less than 0.05) in prepubertal than in either adult or young adult animals. GnRH-stimulated LH release was similar (P greater than 0.05) between adult and young adult lions, and these responses were similar (P greater than 0.05) to those measured in Ngorongoro Crater lions. Basal and GnRH-stimulated testosterone secretion was higher (P less than 0.05) in adult than in young adult lions and lowest (P less than 0.05) in prepubertal lions. Age-class differences in testosterone production were related directly to the concentrations of LH receptors in the testis (P less than 0.05). Basal and GnRH-stimulated testosterone secretion and gonadotrophin receptor concentrations within age classes were similar (P greater than 0.05) between lions of the Serengeti Plains and Ngorongoro Crater. Lower motility and higher percentages of structurally abnormal spermatozoa were observed in electroejaculates of young adult compared to adult Serengeti Plains males (P less than 0.05) and were associated with decreased steroidogenic activity. In contrast, there were no age-related differences in ejaculate characteristics of Ngorongoro Crater lions. Seminal quality in the Crater population was poor in adult and young adult animals and was unrelated to alterations in pituitary or testicular function. In summary, only seminal quality in adult male lions was affected by location, whereas age significantly affected both basal and GnRH-stimulated testosterone secretion and seminal quality (Serengeti Plains only) in sexually mature males. The striking seminal/endocrine differences among pride (breeding) males of different ages raises questions about the impact of age on individual reproductive performance in this species.     

A lion lentivirus related to feline immunodeficiency virus: epidemiologic and phylogenetic aspects.

Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) is a novel lentivirus that is genetically homologous and functionally analogous to the human AIDS viruses, human immunodeficiency virus types 1 and 2. FIV causes immunosuppression in domestic cats by destroying the CD4 T-lymphocyte subsets in infected hosts. A serological survey of over 400 free-ranging African and Asian lions (Panthera leo) for antibodies to FIV revealed endemic lentivirus prevalence with an incidence of seropositivity as high as 90%. A lion lentivirus (FIV-Ple) was isolated by infection of lion lymphocytes in vitro. Seroconversion was documented in two Serengeti lions, and discordance of mother-cub serological status argues against maternal transmission (in favor of horizontal spread) as a major route of infection among lions. A phylogenetic analysis of cloned FIV-Ple pol gene sequences from 27 lions from four African populations (from the Serengeti reserve, Ngorongoro Crater, Lake Manyara, and Kruger Park) revealed remarkably high intra- and interindividual genetic diversity at the sequence level. Three FIV-Ple phylogenetic clusters or clades were resolved with phenetic, parsimony, and likelihood analytical procedures. The three clades, which occurred not only together in the same population but throughout Africa, were as divergent from each other as were homologous pol sequences of lentivirus isolated from distinct feline species, i.e., puma and domestic cat. The FIV-Ple clades, however, were more closely related to each other than to other feline lentiviruses (monophyletic for lion species), suggesting that the ancestors of FIV-Ple evolved in allopatric (geographically isolated) lion populations that converged recently. To date, there is no clear evidence of FIV-Ple-associated pathology, raising the possibility of a historic genetic accommodation of the lion lentivirus and its host leading to a coevolved host-parasite symbiosis (or commensalism) in the population similar to that hypothesized for endemic simian immunodeficiency virus without pathology in free-ranging African monkey species.     

Using Mountain Lion Habitat Selection in Management

Wildlife agencies are generally tasked with managing and conserving species at state and local levels simultaneously. Thus, it is necessary for wildlife agencies to understand basic ecological processes of a given species at multiple scales to aid decision making at commensurately varied spatial and behavioral scales. Mountain lions (Puma concolor) occur throughout California, USA, and are at the center of a variety of management and conservation issues. For example, they are genetically and demographically at risk in 1 region yet apparently stable and negatively affecting endangered species in another. Currently, no formal plan exists for mountain lions in California to deal with these diverse scenarios involving issues of local mountain lion population viability and problems related to predation of endangered species. To facilitate development of a state-wide management and conservation plan, we quantified habitat selection by mountain lions at 2 spatial scales across the range of environmental conditions in which the species is found in California. Our analyses used location data from individuals (n = 263) collared across the state from 2001–2019. At the home range scale, mountain lions selected habitat to prioritize meeting energetic demands. At the within home range scale, mountain lions avoided areas of human activity. Further, our analyses revealed 165,350–170,085 km², depending on season, of suitable mountain lion habitat in California. Fifty percent of the suitable habitat was on unprotected lands and thus vulnerable to development. These habitat selection models will help in the development of a state-wide conservation and management plan for mountain lions in California by guiding mountain lion population monitoring through time, prioritization of habitat to be conserved for maintaining demographic connectivity and gene flow, and efforts to mediate mountain lion-prey interactions. Our work and application area will help with wildlife policy and management decisions related to depredation problems at the local scale and issues of habitat connectivity at the statewide scale. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Population viability analysis of New Zealand sea lions, Auckland Islands, New Zealand’s sub-Antarctics: assessing relative impacts and uncertainty

A common issue faced in wildlife management is how to assess the uncertainty of potential impacts on the viability of a species or population. The pup production of New Zealand (NZ) sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri) has declined 50% in the last 12?years at their main breeding area, the Auckland Islands. The two major known atypical impacts on NZ sea lions are as follows: (1) the direct mortality as bycatch of trawling and (2) bacterial epizootics, which can affect reproduction and mortality. Both of these impacts include high levels of uncertainty, with fisheries data being variable due to percentage observer coverage and the effect of sea lion exclusion devises, while the timing and severity of bacterial epizootics are not predictable. In this paper, an age-structured model of the NZ sea lion population at the Auckland Islands was built to examine the predicted effects of fisheries mortality and catastrophes (bacterial epizootics), both separately and then combined, on population viability over a 100-year period using the VORTEX population viability analysis programme. These models are then compared against 15?years of empirical field data to determine the actual level of impacts being observed. Model results indicate that although naturally occurring epizootics reduce the growth rate of the population, it does not cause a decline in the Auckland Island population. However, sustained fisheries bycatch at current estimated levels, particularly considering its potential impact on adult female survival, could result in a population decline and possible functional extinction over the modelled time period.     

Direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic bird food on population dynamics of a songbird

Anthropogenic bird foods are frequently credited with affecting avian population dynamics, but few studies have tested this assertion over broad spatial scales. Human-derived foods could directly impact population sizes or indirectly affect them by mediating the influence of another factor, such as disease. In 1994, a novel disease outbreak (mycoplasmal conjunctivitis) substantially reduced populations of the house finch (Haemorhous mexicanus) in the eastern United States, creating an opportunity to test whether bird feeding indirectly exacerbated or ameliorated the impacts of the disease. We assessed the effects of bird food availability on house finch populations using data from the National Survey on Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-associated Recreation and the Christmas Bird Count. House finch densities were positively related to the density of people providing food for birds prior to the spread of mycoplasmal conjunctivitis, suggesting that the availability of bird seed can limit the size of finch populations. Following the disease epidemic, house finch declines were greatest where the density of people feeding birds also fell dramatically. This pattern suggests that bird food could have a positive indirect effect on disease-related mortality. Our findings suggest that the collective actions of individual people have the potential to influence resource availability and population dynamics of wildlife in human-modified landscapes.     

The cost of livestock lost to lions and other wildlife species in the Amboseli ecosystem,Kenya

Though retaliatory lion (Panthera leo) killing as a result of livestock predation in the Maasai group ranches between the Tsavo NPs and Amboseli is remarkably high, other wildlife species are known to kill livestock. Surprisingly, lions suffer the most from retaliatory killing by the Maasai community for killing livestock. The extent of livestock predation by lions in comparison to other species is unknown. This study was carried out in the Olgulului group ranch (OGR) located adjacent to Amboseli National Park in June 2009. The cost of livestock killed by each of these species including lion, hyena (Crocuta crocuta), cheetah (Acynonyx jubatus), leopard (Panthera pardus), olive baboon (Papio cynocephalus), black-backed jackal (Canis mesomelas), and African elephant (Loxodonta africana) was analyzed. Questionnaires, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews with officials from OGR, Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS), and compensation scheme organizations were the methods used to collect information. Cluster and systematic sampling techniques were used to select a sample of 199 respondents from OGR. Lions were blamed for 40.5% (US$ 374,603) of the value of livestock lost to wildlife. The costs of livestock lost to hyenas and lions were not significantly different (q = 0.24, p = 0.968). Although hyenas killed more livestock compared to lions, the economic damage between the two was not significantly different because lions attacked cattle which had high economic value. Conservation of lions will be increasingly difficult if the current levels of predation are not reduced to economically and socially acceptable levels.     

Wildlife Reservoirs of Canine Distemper Virus Resulted in a Major Outbreak in Danish Farmed Mink (Neovison vison)

A major outbreak of canine distemper virus (CDV) in Danish farmed mink (Neovison vison) started in the late summer period of 2012. At the same time, a high number of diseased and dead wildlife species such as foxes, raccoon dogs, and ferrets were observed. To track the origin of the outbreak virus full-length sequencing of the receptor binding surface protein hemagglutinin (H) was performed on 26 CDV''s collected from mink and 10 CDV''s collected from wildlife species. Subsequent phylogenetic analyses showed that the virus circulating in the mink farms and wildlife were highly identical with an identity at the nucleotide level of 99.45% to 100%. The sequences could be grouped by single nucleotide polymorphisms according to geographical distribution of mink farms and wildlife. The signaling lymphocytic activation molecule (SLAM) receptor binding region in most viruses from both mink and wildlife contained G at position 530 and Y at position 549; however, three mink viruses had an Y549H substitution. The outbreak viruses clustered phylogenetically in the European lineage and were highly identical to wildlife viruses from Germany and Hungary (99.29% – 99.62%). The study furthermore revealed that fleas (Ceratophyllus sciurorum) contained CDV and that vertical transmission of CDV occurred in a wild ferret. The study provides evidence that wildlife species, such as foxes, play an important role in the transmission of CDV to farmed mink and that the virus may be maintained in the wild animal reservoir between outbreaks.     

Estimating abundance of mountain lions from unstructured spatial sampling

Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management strategies. Traditional mark–recapture methods do not explicitly account for differences in individual capture probabilities due to the spatial distribution of individuals in relation to survey effort (or trap locations). However, recent advances in the analysis of capture–recapture data have produced methods estimating abundance and density of animals from spatially explicit capture–recapture data that account for heterogeneity in capture probabilities due to the spatial organization of individuals and traps. We adapt recently developed spatial capture–recapture models to estimate density and abundance of mountain lions in western Montana. Volunteers and state agency personnel collected mountain lion DNA samples in portions of the Blackfoot drainage (7,908 km²) in west-central Montana using 2 methods: snow back-tracking mountain lion tracks to collect hair samples and biopsy darting treed mountain lions to obtain tissue samples. Overall, we recorded 72 individual capture events, including captures both with and without tissue sample collection and hair samples resulting in the identification of 50 individual mountain lions (30 females, 19 males, and 1 unknown sex individual). We estimated lion densities from 8 models containing effects of distance, sex, and survey effort on detection probability. Our population density estimates ranged from a minimum of 3.7 mountain lions/100 km² (95% CI 2.3–5.7) under the distance only model (including only an effect of distance on detection probability) to 6.7 (95% CI 3.1–11.0) under the full model (including effects of distance, sex, survey effort, and distance × sex on detection probability). These numbers translate to a total estimate of 293 mountain lions (95% CI 182–451) to 529 (95% CI 245–870) within the Blackfoot drainage. Results from the distance model are similar to previous estimates of 3.6 mountain lions/100 km² for the study area; however, results from all other models indicated greater numbers of mountain lions. Our results indicate that unstructured spatial sampling combined with spatial capture–recapture analysis can be an effective method for estimating large carnivore densities. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Body-size scaling in an SEI model of wildlife diseases

A number of wildlife pathogens are generalist and can affect different host species characterized by a wide range of body sizes. In this work we analyze the role of allometric scaling of host vital and epidemiological rates in a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected (SEI) model. Our analysis shows that the transmission coefficient threshold for the disease to establish in the population scales allometrically (exponent = 0.45) with host size as well as the threshold at which limit cycles occur. In contrast, the threshold of the basic reproduction number for sustained oscillations to occur is independent of the host size and is always greater than 5. In the case of rabies, we show that the oscillation periods predicted by the model match those observed in the field for a wide range of host sizes.The population dynamics of the SEI model is also analyzed in the case of pathogens affecting multiple coexisting hosts with different body sizes. Our analyses show that the basic reproduction number for limit cycles to occur depends on the ratio between host sizes, that the oscillation period in a multihost community is set by the smaller species dynamics, and that intermediate interspecific disease transmission can stabilize the epidemic occurrence in wildlife communities.