A model-driven approach to quantify migration patterns: individual, regional and yearly differences

1.?Animal migration has long intrigued scientists and wildlife managers alike, yet migratory species face increasing challenges because of habitat fragmentation, climate change and over-exploitation. Central to the understanding migratory species is the objective discrimination between migratory and nonmigratory individuals in a given population, quantifying the timing, duration and distance of migration and the ability to predict migratory movements. 2.?Here, we propose a uniform statistical framework to (i) separate migration from other movement behaviours, (ii) quantify migration parameters without the need for arbitrary cut-off criteria and (iii) test predictability across individuals, time and space. 3.?We first validated our novel approach by simulating data based on established theoretical movement patterns. We then formulated the expected shapes of squared displacement patterns as nonlinear models for a suite of movement behaviours to test the ability of our method to distinguish between migratory movement and other movement types. 4.?We then tested our approached empirically using 108 wild Global Positioning System (GPS)-collared moose Alces alces in Scandinavia as a study system because they exhibit a wide range of movement behaviours, including resident, migrating and dispersing individuals, within the same population. Applying our approach showed that 87% and 67% of our Swedish and Norwegian subpopulations, respectively, can be classified as migratory. 5.?Using nonlinear mixed effects models for all migratory individuals we showed that the distance, timing and duration of migration differed between the sexes and between years, with additional individual differences accounting for a large part of the variation in the distance of migration but not in the timing or duration. Overall, the model explained most of the variation (92%) and also had high predictive power for the same individuals over time (69%) as well as between study populations (74%). 6.?The high predictive ability of the approach suggests that it can help increase our understanding of the drivers of migration and could provide key quantitative information for understanding and managing a broad range of migratory species.     

How the interplay between individual spatial memory and landscape persistence can generate population distribution patterns

Recent studies have suggested that the long distance movements of some terrestrial mammals are not migratory, but rather nomadic. Moreover, the spatial heterogeneity and temporal predictability of resources were proposed as factors contributing to alternative movement strategies, such as sedentarism (i.e., range residency), migration, and nomadism. Here, we propose that, at the individual level, a dependence on spatial memory is another important parameter for distinguishing among population-level patterns of spatial distribution. For instance, migratory animals would have a long memory of the areas they prefer to revisit, whereas nomadic animals would remember recently visited areas as places to avoid as they search for resources. We develop a computational model in which individuals’ movement decisions are based on the animals’ spatial memory of previously visited areas. Through this approach, we delineate how the interplay between landscape persistence and spatial memory leads to sedentarism, migration, and nomadism.     

How landscape dynamics link individual‐ to population‐level movement patterns: a multispecies comparison of ungulate relocation data

Aim To demonstrate how the interrelations of individual movements form large‐scale population‐level movement patterns and how these patterns are associated with the underlying landscape dynamics by comparing ungulate movements across species. Locations Arctic tundra in Alaska and Canada, temperate forests in Massachusetts, Patagonian Steppes in Argentina, Eastern Steppes in Mongolia. Methods We used relocation data from four ungulate species (barren‐ground caribou, Mongolian gazelle, guanaco and moose) to examine individual movements and the interrelation of movements among individuals. We applied and developed a suite of spatial metrics that measure variation in movement among individuals as population dispersion, movement coordination and realized mobility. Taken together, these metrics allowed us to quantify and distinguish among different large‐scale population‐level movement patterns such as migration, range residency and nomadism. We then related the population‐level movement patterns to the underlying landscape vegetation dynamics via long‐term remote sensing measurements of the temporal variability, spatial variability and unpredictability of vegetation productivity. Results Moose, which remained in sedentary home ranges, and guanacos, which were partially migratory, exhibited relatively short annual movements associated with landscapes having very little broad‐scale variability in vegetation. Caribou and gazelle performed extreme long‐distance movements that were associated with broad‐scale variability in vegetation productivity during the peak of the growing season. Caribou exhibited regular seasonal migration in which individuals were clustered for most of the year and exhibited coordinated movements. In contrast, gazelle were nomadic, as individuals were independently distributed and moved in an uncoordinated manner that relates to the comparatively unpredictable (yet broad‐scale) vegetation dynamics of their landscape. Main conclusions We show how broad‐scale landscape unpredictability may lead to nomadism, an understudied type of long‐distance movement. In contrast to classical migration where landscapes may vary at broad scales but in a predictable manner, long‐distance movements of nomadic individuals are uncoordinated and independent from other such individuals. Landscapes with little broad‐scale variability in vegetation productivity feature smaller‐scale movements and allow for range residency. Nomadism requires distinct integrative conservation strategies that facilitate long‐distance movements across the entire landscape and are not limited to certain migration corridors.     

‘Chancing on a spectacle:’ co-occurring animal migrations and interspecific interactions

Migrations of diverse wildlife species often converge in space and time, with their journeys shaped by similar forces (i.e. geographic barriers and seasonal resources and conditions); we term this ‘co-migration’. Recent studies have illuminated multi-speciesmigrations by land and sea including the simultaneous movements of numerous insects, birds, bats and of fish invertebrates marine predators. Beyond their significance as natural wonders, species with overlapping migrations may interact ecologically, with potential effects on population and community dynamics. Direct and indirect ecological interactions (including predation and competition) between migrant species remain poorly understood, in part because migration is the least-studied phase of animals’ annual cycles. To address this gap, we conducted a literature review to examine whether animal migration studies incorporate multiple species and to what extent they investigate interspecific interactions between co-migrants. Following a key word search, we read all migration research papers in 23 relevant peer-reviewed journals during 2008–2017. Thirty percent of animal migration papers reported two or more species with coinciding migrations, suggesting that co-migrations are common, although few studies investigated or discussed these mixed-species migrations further. Synthesizing these, we present examples and describe five types of ecological interactions between migrating species, including predator–prey, host–parasite and commensal relationships. Considering migratory animals as interacting with migrant communities will enhance understanding of the drivers of migration and could improve predictions about wildlife responses to global change. Further research focused on multi-species migrations could also inform conservation efforts for migratory animal populations, many of which are declining or shifting, with unexplored consequences for other co-migratory species.     

Evidence of Partial Migration in a Large Coastal Predator: Opportunistic Foraging and Reproduction as Key Drivers?

Understanding animal movement decisions that involve migration is critical for evaluating population connectivity, and thus persistence. Recent work on sharks has shown that often only a portion of the adult population will undertake migrations, while the rest may be resident in an area for long periods. Defining the extent to which adult sharks use specific habitats and their migratory behaviour is essential for assessing their risk of exposure to threats such as fishing and habitat degradation. The present study used acoustic telemetry to examine residency patterns and migratory behaviour of adult bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) along the East coast of Australia. Fifty-six VR2W acoustic receivers were used to monitor the movements of 33 bull sharks in the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Both males and females were detected year-round, but their abundance and residency peaked between September and December across years (2012–2014). High individual variability in reef use patterns was apparent, with some individuals leaving the array for long periods, whereas others (36%) exhibited medium (0.20–0.40) or high residency (> 0.50). A large portion of the population (51%) undertook migrations of up to 1,400 km to other coral reefs and/or inshore coastal habitats in Queensland and New South Wales. Most of these individuals (76%) were mature females, and the timing of migrations coincided with the austral summer (Dec-Feb). All migrating individuals (except one) returned to the central GBR, highlighting its importance as a potential foraging ground. Our findings suggest that adult bull sharks appear to be highly dependent on coral reef resources and provide evidence of partial migration, where only a portion of the female population undertook seasonal migrations potentially to give birth. Given that estuarine habitats face constant anthropogenic pressures, understanding partial migration and habitat connectivity of large coastal predators should be a priority for their management.     

Partial migration in roe deer: migratory and resident tactics are end points of a behavioural gradient determined by ecological factors

Ungulate populations exhibiting partial migration present a unique opportunity to explore the causes of the general phenomenon of migration. The European roe deer Capreolus capreolus is particularly suited for such studies due to a wide distribution range and a high level of ecological plasticity. In this study we undertook a comparative analysis of roe deer GPS location data from a representative set of European ecosystems available within the EURODEER collaborative project. We aimed at evaluating the ecological factors affecting migration tactic (i.e. occurrence) and pattern (i.e. timing, residence time, number of migratory trips). Migration occurrence varied between and within populations and depended on winter severity and topographic variability. Spring migrations were highly synchronous, while the timing of autumn migrations varied widely between regions, individuals and sexes. Overall, roe deer were faithful to their summer ranges, especially males. In the absence of extreme and predictable winter conditions, roe deer seemed to migrate opportunistically, in response to a tradeoff between the costs of residence in spatially separated ranges and the costs of migratory movements. Animals performed numerous trips between winter and summer ranges which depended on factors influencing the costs of movement such as between‐range distance, slope and habitat openness. Our results support the idea that migration encompasses a behavioural continuum, with one‐trip migration and residence as its end points, while commuting and multi‐trip migration with short residence times in seasonal ranges are intermediate tactics. We believe that a full understanding of the variation in tactics of temporal separation in habitat use will provide important insights on migration and the factors that influence its prevalence.     

Variable individual consistency in timing and destination of winter migrating fish

Migration is an important event in the life history of many animals, but there is considerable variation within populations in the timing and final destination. Such differential migration at the population level can be strongly determined by individuals showing different consistencies in migratory traits. By tagging individual cyprinid fish with uniquely coded electronic tags, and recording their winter migrations from lakes to streams for 6 consecutive years, we obtained highly detailed long-term information on the differential migration patterns of individuals. We found that individual migrants showed consistent site fidelities for over-wintering streams over multiple migratory seasons and that they were also consistent in their seasonal timing of migration. Our data also suggest that consistency itself can be considered as an individual trait, with migrants that exhibit consistent site fidelity also showing consistency in migratory timing. The finding of a mixture of both consistent and inconsistent individuals within a population furthers our understanding of intrapopulation variability in migration strategies, and we hypothesize that environmental variation can maintain such different strategies.     

Exploring intraspecific variation in migratory destinations to investigate the drivers of migration

Various benefits (e.g. tracking of resources and of climate niche) and costs (e.g. distance travelled) are hypothesized to drive seasonal animal migrations. Until now, these potential factors have been investigated together at the species level, but migratory movements are made at the individual level, leading to intraspecific variability. Here, we use ringing/recovery data from 1308 individuals belonging to thirteen North American bird species to analyse patterns in intraspecific variability of migratory destinations in order to investigate which factors underpin bird migration and how individuals trade-off among multiple factors. Our results suggest that migratory destinations have been shaped by access to resources (most important during the breeding season) and climatic niche tracking (during winter, mostly). However, the benefits of resource surpluses and climate niche tracking appear to be traded off against the cost of migratory distance, which seems to strongly constrain where individuals migrate.     

Ocean Heat Content Reveals Secrets of Fish Migrations

For centuries, the mechanisms surrounding spatially complex animal migrations have intrigued scientists and the public. We present a new methodology using ocean heat content (OHC), a habitat metric that is normally a fundamental part of hurricane intensity forecasting, to estimate movements and migration of satellite-tagged marine fishes. Previous satellite-tagging research of fishes using archival depth, temperature and light data for geolocations have been too coarse to resolve detailed ocean habitat utilization. We combined tag data with OHC estimated from ocean circulation and transport models in an optimization framework that substantially improved geolocation accuracy over SST-based tracks. The OHC-based movement track provided the first quantitative evidence that many of the tagged highly migratory fishes displayed affinities for ocean fronts and eddies. The OHC method provides a new quantitative tool for studying dynamic use of ocean habitats, migration processes and responses to environmental changes by fishes, and further, improves ocean animal tracking and extends satellite-based animal tracking data for other potential physical, ecological, and fisheries applications.     

Caribou movement as a correlated random walk

Movement is a primary mechanism coupling animals to their environment, yet there exists little empirical analysis to test our theoretical knowledge of this basic process. We used correlated random walk (CRW) models and satellite telemetry to investigate long-distance movements of caribou, the most vagile, non-volant terrestrial vertebrate in the world. Individual paths of migratory and sedentary female caribou were quantified using measures of mean move length and angle, and net squared displacements at each successive move were compared to predictions from the models. Movements were modelled at two temporal scales. For paths recorded through one annual cycle, the CRW model overpredicted net displacement of caribou through time. For paths recorded over shorter intervals delineated by seasonal behavioural changes of caribou, there was excellent correspondence between model predictions and observations for most periods for both migratory and sedentary caribou. On the smallest temporal scale, a CRW model significantly overpredicted displacements of migratory caribou during 3 months following calving; this was also the case for sedentary caribou in late summer, and in late winter. In all cases of overprediction there was significant positive autocorrelation in turn direction, indicating that movements were more tortuous than expected. In one case of underprediction, significant negative autocorrelation of sequential turn direction was evident, indicating that migratory caribou moved in straightened paths during spring migration to calving grounds. Results are discussed in light of known migration patterns and possible limiting factors for caribou, and indicate the applicability of CRW models to animal movement at vast spatial and temporal scales, thus assisting in future development of more sophisticated models of population spread and redistribution for vertebrates. Received: 14 July 1999 / Accepted: 15 November 1999     

Repeated long-range migrations of adult males in a common Indo-Pacific reef shark

The grey reef shark, Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos, is one of the most abundant coral reef sharks throughout the Indo-Pacific. However, this species has been critically impacted across its range, with well-documented population declines of > 90% attributed to human activities. A key knowledge gap in the successful implementation of grey reef shark conservation plans is the understanding of large-scale movement patterns, along with the associated biological and ecological drivers. To address this shortfall, we acoustically monitored 147 adult and juvenile grey reef sharks of all sexes for more than 2 yr across the New Caledonian archipelago, West Pacific. Here, we document multiple adult males undertaking return journeys of up to nearly 700 km in consecutive years. This constitutes the first evidence of repeated long-range migrations for this species. Although only a limited number of adult males were definitively tracked undertaking migrations, similar timing in changes in the detection patterns of a further 13 animals, mostly adult males, suggests this behavior may be more common than previously thought. The paucity of evidence for juvenile migrations and timing of adult movements suggest that mating is the motivation behind these migrations. Our results have important implications for management, given the potential of mature individuals to recurrently travel outside managed or protected areas. Future management of this species clearly needs to consider the importance of large-scale migratory behaviors when developing management plans.

     

Mismatch between fishway operation and timing of fish movements: a risk for cascading effects in partial migration systems

Habitat fragmentation is a growing problem worldwide. Particularly in river systems, numerous dams and weirs hamper the movement of a wide variety of species. With the aim to preserve connectivity for fish, many barriers in river systems are equipped with fishways (also called fish passages or fish ladders). However, few fishways provide full connectivity. Here we hypothesized that restricted seasonal opening times of fishways can importantly reduce their effectiveness by interfering with the timing of fish migration, for both spring‐ and autumn‐spawning species. We empirically tested our hypothesis, and discuss the possible eco‐evolutionary consequences of affected migration timing. We analyzed movements of two salmonid fishes, spring‐spawning European grayling (Thymallus thymallus) and autumn‐spawning brown trout (Salmo trutta), in Norway's two largest river systems. We compared their timing of upstream passage through four fishways collected over 28 years with the timing of fish movements in unfragmented river sections as monitored by radiotelemetry. Confirming our hypothesis, late opening of fishways delayed the migration of European grayling in spring, and early closure of fishways blocked migration for brown trout on their way to spawning locations during late autumn. We show in a theoretical framework how restricted opening times of fishways can induce shifts from migratory to resident behavior in potamodromous partial migration systems, and propose that this can induce density‐dependent effects among fish accumulating in lower regions of rivers. Hence, fragmentation may not only directly affect the migratory individuals in the population, but may also have effects that cascade downstream and alter circumstances for resident fish. Fishway functionality is inadequate if there is a mismatch between natural fish movements and fishway opening times in the same river system, with ecological and possibly evolutionary consequences for fish populations.     

Landscape movements of migratory birds and bats reveal an expanded scale of stopover

Many species of birds and bats undertake seasonal migrations between breeding and over-wintering sites. En-route, migrants alternate periods of flight with time spent at stopover--the time and space where individuals rest and refuel for subsequent flights. We assessed the spatial scale of movements made by migrants during stopover by using an array of automated telemetry receivers with multiple antennae to track the daily location of individuals over a geographic area ~20 × 40 km. We tracked the movements of 322 individuals of seven migratory vertebrate species (5 passerines, 1 owl and 1 bat) during spring and fall migratory stopover on and adjacent to a large lake peninsula. Our results show that many individuals leaving their capture site relocate within the same landscape at some point during stopover, moving as much as 30 km distant from their site of initial capture. We show that many apparent nocturnal departures from stopover sites are not a resumption of migration in the strictest sense, but are instead relocations that represent continued stopover at a broader spatial scale.     

Seasonal pre‐migratory fattening and increased activity in a nomadic and irruptive migrant,the Red Crossbill Loxia curvirostra

It is well documented that irruptive and nomadic migrants move in response to resources that are distributed unpredictably in space, time or both. Increasing evidence, however, suggests that irruptive and nomadic species may use seasonal timing mechanisms to prepare for migrations, despite the more facultative nature of their movements. Here we use data from free‐living and captive Red Crossbills Loxia curvirostra, a typical irruptive nomad, to examine three hypotheses regarding control of facultative migration: (1) the facultative migration hypothesis, which states that both preparation and departure decisions are regulated by resource availability; (2) the seasonal preparation hypothesis, which states that preparation is initiated by seasonal factors (i.e. endogenous rhythms and/or photoperiod) but that departure decisions are dependent on local resource availability; and (3) the seasonal migration hypothesis, which states that both preparation and departure decisions are initiated by seasonal mechanisms and are independent of local food resources. Red Crossbills in North America are thought to make temporally consistent spring migrations in anticipation of conifer cone maturation. In this study, fat deposits of free‐living Red Crossbills peaked in May and June, exceeding even winter deposits. In agreement with the field data, captive birds on a natural photoperiod with constant food and temperature showed a peak in fat deposition and activity levels in June. These findings are consistent with the seasonal preparation and the seasonal migration hypotheses and contribute to a growing literature that suggests that facultative migrants may prepare for movements in similar ways to seasonal migrants.     

Population Migration and the Variation of Dopamine D4 Receptor (DRD4) Allele Frequencies Around the Globe

This article reports an association between the variation of dopamine D4 receptor (DRD4) allele frequencies around the globe and population migration patterns in prehistoric times. After compiling existing data on DRD4 allele frequencies of 2,320 individuals from 39 populations and on the migration pattern of these groups, we found that, compared to sedentary populations, migratory populations showed a higher proportion of long alleles for DRD4. The correlation between macro-migration (long-distance group migration) and the proportion of long alleles of DRD4 was .85 (p < .001), and that between micro-migration (sedentary vs. nomadic settlement) and the proportion of long alleles was .52 (p = .001). We discussed the adaptive value of long alleles of DRD4—a genetic trait that has been linked in some studies to the personality trait of novelty-seeking and to hyperactivity— in migratory societies and the possibility of natural selection for a migration gene.     

Investigating connectivity and seasonal differences in wind assistance in the migration of Common Sandpipers

Many migratory bird species have undergone recent population declines, but there is considerable variation in trends between species and between populations employing different migratory routes. Understanding species-specific migratory behaviours is therefore of critical importance for their conservation. The Common Sandpiper Actitis hypoleucos is an Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species whose European populations are in decline. We fitted geolocators to individuals breeding in England or wintering in Senegal to determine their migration routes and breeding or non-breeding locations. We used these geolocator data in combination with previously published data from Scottish breeding birds to determine the distributions and migratory connectivity of breeding (English and Scottish) and wintering (Senegalese) populations of the Common Sandpiper, and used simulated random migrations to investigate wind assistance during autumn and spring migration. We revealed that the Common Sandpipers tagged in England spent the winter in West Africa, and that at least some birds wintering in Senegal bred in Scandinavia; this provides insights into the links between European breeding populations and their wintering grounds. Furthermore, birds tagged in England, Scotland and Senegal overlapped considerably in their migration routes and wintering locations, meaning that local breeding populations could be buffered against habitat change, but susceptible to large-scale environmental changes. These findings also suggest that contrasting population trends in England and Scotland are unlikely to be the result of population-specific migration routes and wintering regions. Finally, we found that birds used wind to facilitate their migration in autumn, but less so in spring, when the wind costs associated with their migrations were higher than expected at random. This was despite the wind costs of simulated migrations being significantly lower in spring than in autumn. Indeed, theory suggests that individuals are under greater time pressures in spring than in autumn because of the time constraints associated with reproduction.     

Postglacial population expansion drives the evolution of long-distance migration in a songbird

The evolution of long-distance migratory behavior from sedentary populations is a central problem in studies of animal migration. Three crucial issues that remain unresolved are: (1) the biotic and abiotic factors promoting evolution of migratory behavior, (2) the geographic origin of ancestral sedentary populations, and (3) the time scale over which migration evolves. We test the role of postglacial population expansions during the Quaternary in driving the evolution of songbird migration against prevailing views favoring the role of intraspecific competition. In contrast to previous attempts to investigate these questions using interspecific phylogenies, we adopt an intraspecific approach and examine the phylogeography of a North American songbird, the chipping sparrow (Spizella passerina), which exhibits both long-distance migratory behavior in temperate North America and sedentary behavior in Mexico and Central America. We show that migratory populations descend from sedentary populations in southern Mexico and that migration has evolved as a result of a northward population expansion into temperate North America since the last glacial maximum 18,000 years ago. Migration appears to have evolved rapidly in some species as populations colonized areas of high seasonality in the temperate zone. The phylogeography of the yellow-eyed junco (Junco phaeonotus), a strictly sedentary species, provides a null model supporting the view that northward range expansions were driven solely by environmental factors and not by a predisposition to evolve migratory behavior. These results provide the strongest evidence to date that historical climate patterns can drive the rapid evolution of avian migration in natural populations, and they suggest a general mechanism for the repeated evolution of migration within and across bird lineages.     

Timing is crucial for consequences of migratory connectivity

Migratory connectivity can have important consequences for individuals, populations and communities. We argue that most consequences not only depend on which sites are used but importantly also on when these are used and suggest that the timing of migration is characterised by synchrony, phenology, and consistency. We illustrate the importance of these aspects of timing for shaping the consequences of migratory connectivity on individual fitness, population dynamics, gene flow and community dynamics using examples from throughout the animal kingdom. Exemplarily for one specific process that is shaped by migratory connectivity and the timing of migration – the transmission of parasites and the dynamics of diseases – we underpin our arguments with a dynamic epidemiological network model of a migratory population. Here, we quantitatively demonstrate that variations in migration phenology and synchrony yield disease dynamics that significantly differ from a time‐neglecting case. Extending the original definition of migratory connectivity into a spatio‐temporal concept can importantly contribute to understanding the links migratory animals make across the globe and the consequences these may have both for the dynamics of their populations and the communities they visit throughout their journeys. Synthesis Migratory connectivity quantifies the links migrant animals make across the globe and these can have manifold consequences – from individual fitness, population dynamics, gene flow to transmission of pathogens and parasites. We show through the use of empirical examples and a conceptual model that these consequences not only depend on which sites are used but importantly also on when these are used. Therefore, we specify three dimensions of migration timing – phenology, synchrony and consistency, which describe the timing of migration 1) relative to development of key resources; 2) relative to the migration of other individuals; and 3) relative to previous migration events. Each of these dimensions can alter the consequences, but typically through different mechanisms.     

Spatial organization of the clouded Apollo population (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Parnassius mnemosyne</Emphasis>) in Onega Lake Basin

The distribution and interaction of local populations of the clouded Apollo Parnassius mnemosyne were studied on Bolshoi Klimenetskii Island (Lake Onega, Russia). Within an area of 10 km², the butterflies occurred in 27 discrete patches—small meadows located within and on the periphery of forests. The mark-recapture results confirmed that the patches were connected by a flow of individuals. Based on exponential distribution, the local and migratory movements of the butterflies were separated, and a model describing the movement frequencies in relation to distance was proposed. The generalization of the habitats using the PCA Q-technique and isolation indices as measures of similarity between the objects in initial matrices revealed four subpopulations occupying separate plots of the area with a network of suitable habitats. According to the available data on the local movements of butterflies, an area of settlement was determined for each subpopulation, characterized by two zones: the central one (0.3 km in diameter), within which the movements of butterflies are most intensive, and the peripheral one (0.3 to 0.5 km) which is rarely visited by butterflies. Long-distance migrations between different occupied areas were recorded for 8% of marked butterflies; they included all the subpopulations. The male to female ratio among the migrants was 6: 1; the maximum distance covered by a butterfly was 2.68 km. The common opinion that the clouded Apollo is an extremely sedentary species with low migratory potentials is refuted.     

Predator‐prey migration phenologies remain synchronised in a warming catchment

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