Jolly-Seber法中种群存活率估算的探讨

在Jolly Seber法中 ,存活率为其核心参数之一。一些作者指出 ,采用Jolly Seber法估算标志重捕数据有时候会出现存活率大于 1的情形。本文就这一情形做了相应的分析 ,认为产生这一现象的原因为标志个体间不具有等捕性或等存活率所致。在设计标志重捕取样的野外调查中 ,应设法提高重捕率以增加估计精度     

陆桥岛屿环境下社鼠种群数量的估算方法

根据2010年3月—11月在千岛湖地区2个岛屿上社鼠(Niviventer confucianus)的标志重捕数据,分别用Jolly-Seber法、修正Lincoln指数法、Schnabel法和MNA法计算两个岛屿上社鼠种群数量,并深入探讨在陆桥岛屿环境下估算社鼠种群数量的适用方法。研究结果显示,在满足Jolly-Seber法的条件下,通过该方法计算的结果与修正Lincoln指数法无显著差异。但在野外实验中,并不是所有的重捕数据都满足Jolly-Seber法的条件,而且该方法不能估算头尾两月的数量。因此,修正Lincoln指数法更适于估算陆桥岛屿环境下社鼠的种群数量。可为今后开展陆桥岛屿环境下鼠类种群生态学研究奠定基础。     

Jolly - Seber 法估算长爪沙鼠种群参数的适用性探讨

以2000 年6 月～10 月群居性长爪沙鼠野生种群的标志重捕资料为依据, 采用Jolly - Seber 模型估算了该鼠种群参数, 结果表明, 长爪沙鼠个体间具等捕性(Leslie 法检验) , 研究期间取样个体的重捕率平均为89.7 %(77.4 % ～ 100 %) ; 参数估计结果具有合理的生物学意义, 认为采用该模型估算长爪沙鼠种群参数是适用的。     

种群密度调查——标志重捕法的模拟实验

种群密度是生物种群最基本的数量特征．标志重捕法是估算动物种群密度的常用方法．在野生动物保护、农林业害虫、害兽的监控与防治、渔业资源的评估、利用与保护上有重要应用。鉴于在中学现有条件下。对兽鸟鱼虫进行实际的标志重捕实验难以展开,在新课程教学实践中,我们反复研究了几种版本中标志重捕法的说明,设计并实施了如下标志重捕法的模拟实验,教学效果反馈很好。     

用标志重捕法估算湖泊二龄河蟹种群数量

估算种群数量是动物生态学研究中非常重要的内容。标志重捕法估算鱼类种群数量有100多年的历史,且得到了广泛的应用。蟹类由于其独特的行为学规律,标志重捕法对蟹类数量估算结果不令人满意,国内外文献中较少应用。       

农田黑线姬鼠与臭鼩的巢区及种间关系的研究

通过为期一年的标志重捕研究,获得了农田优势种黑线姬鼠与臭聃的巢区、活动距离、领域性等资料,分析了种间领域性及空间分布的关系。并观察到随着捕获突数增多,对动物的可捕性产生影响,再结合对重捕期体重变化的分析,发现长期标志重捕对两种动物产生了正与负的效应。     

群居性啮齿动物重捕取样布笼方式的比较

采用两种布笼方法即传统的方格布笼法和同心圆布笼法对典型草原区布氏田鼠野外种群进行了重捕效果的比较。结果表明,方格布笼法的重捕效果要大大低于同心,圆布笼法。对此类群居性啮齿动物进行重捕取样的实验设计时,建议采用同心圆布笼法取代传统的方格布笼法。     

腾格里荒漠沙蜥(PHRYNOCEPHALUS PRZEW ALSKII)年龄划分的研究

本文给出了两次标志重捕所获得的荒漠沙蜥体长的资料。由中国西北腾格里荒漠1985年标志重捕的182个个体体长与被捕时间的关系,我们发现不同体长的个体形成离散的体长区间,根据体长区间又可以推断各组对应的年龄。各年龄组的体长区间为:1—6月,一龄组无被捕个体,二龄组35—54毫米,三龄组55—65毫米,四龄组66—70毫米,五龄组大于70毫米;7—12月,一龄组小于42毫米,二龄组43—56毫米,三龄组57—67毫米,四和五龄组同前。我们用兰州大学校园内持续5年的第二次标志重捕资料验证了根据体长来划分荒漠沙蜥的年龄组是合理的。由低龄组到高龄组,各组体长日平均增长率逐渐降低且组间差异极显著(P<0.01)。以6月作为时间间隔,对第一次标志重捕资料用生命表方法分析的结果显示,年龄为0—6月的个体平均预期寿命是16.7月;存活曲线介于对角线型和长方形之间,该种群密度1985年后保持稳定。     

青海沙蜥种群密度调查的一种新方法

在2002年9月,分别利用洞穴深度法、标志重捕法和洞口计数法对分布在若尔盖草原荒漠中的青海沙蜥(Phrynocephalus vlangalii)的种群密度进行调查,所得的结果分别是190.4、76.8和250.7只.1000 m-2。通过对3种结果的比较与分析,证明洞穴深度法有较高的可靠性,这种方法的理论依据是:沙蜥(Phrynocephalus)是一种变温动物,不能长时间处在温度低于致死低温(-2.5℃)以下的环境中,为了能够成功地度过漫长而寒冷的冬季,它必须居住在深度达到最大冻土层之下的洞穴中。这是沙蜥躲避低温伤害的一种行为机制。该方法可以适用于分布在中国的沙蜥属的其它物种密度调查。     

中华山蝠繁殖生态的研究

借助了Mini-2型超声波接收器,采用标志重捕法,结合录音、录像、拍照等方法,对四川师范学院校舍的中华山蝠繁殖生态进行了研究。结果表明：中华山蝠集群繁殖,产仔育幼期雌蝠与雄蝠分离,形成母子群,4月中下旬开始受乳孕,5月下旬到6月下旬产仔多是一胎两仔,极个别一胎一仔。初生仔性比为1.1:1(♀/♂）,幼蝠不选择母体,母蝠则只哺育自己的幼仔,幼蝠5周龄后开始飞翔,独立生活前辈的成活率约为72.20%,3个半月性成熟。当年仔参与交配,幼仔独立生活后,逐渐与母蝠分离,9月中旬到10月上旬交配,交配后绝大部分迁移。     

Sex ratio,survival, and recapture rate in a Cuban population of the damselfly <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Hypolestes trinitatis</Emphasis> (Odonata: Megapodagrionidae)

Male-biased sex ratios in adult odonate populations have been the subject of vigorous discussion between the students of this order of insects. The debate has centered on whether the observed male bias in many populations is real, perhaps due to unequal survival rates, or whether it is an artifact caused by differences in recapture probabilities. A mark–recapture study to assess the relative contribution of survivorship and recapture rates on male-biased sex ratio was performed in a Cuban population of the damselfly Hypolestes trinitatis. Maximum likelihood theory and Akaike information criterion were used for parameter estimation and model selection, respectively. Females in the sample were outnumbered two to one by males. Estimated recapture and survival rates were 0.188 (females) and 0.638 (males), and 0.933 (females) and 0.944 (males), respectively. Recapture rates only partially explained the bias since the population sex ratio estimated after correcting for differences in this parameter was male biased (1.5). The observed higher survival probabilities in males could have generated the male-biased population sex ratio. Therefore, we concluded that the observed male-biased population sex ratio in H. trinitatis is real.     

Estimating repertoire size in a songbird: a comparison of three techniques

Many animals produce multiple types of breeding vocalizations that, together, constitute a vocal repertoire. In some species, the size of an individual’s repertoire is important because it correlates with brain size, territory size or social behaviour. Quantifying repertoire size is challenging because the long recordings needed to sample a repertoire comprehensively are difficult to obtain and analyse. The most basic quantification technique is simple enumeration, where one counts unique vocalization types until no new types are detected. Alternative techniques estimate repertoire size from subsamples, but these techniques are useful only if they are accurate. Using 12 years of acoustic data from a population of rufous-and-white wrens in Costa Rica, we used simple enumeration to measure the repertoire size for 40 males. We then compared these to the estimates generated by three estimation techniques: curve fitting, capture–recapture and a new technique based on the coupon collector’s problem. To understand how sampling effort affects the accuracy and precision of estimates, we applied each technique to six different-sized subsets of data per male. When averaged across subset sizes, the capture–recapture and coupon collector techniques showed the highest accuracy, whereas the curve fitting technique underestimated repertoire size. Precision (the average absolute difference between the estimated and true repertoire size) was significantly better for the capture–recapture technique than the coupon collector and curve fitting techniques. Both accuracy and precision improved as subset size increased. We conclude that capture–recapture is the best technique for estimating the sizes of small repertoires.     

Effect of haemosporidian infections on host survival and recapture rate in the blue tit

Parasites are ubiquitous in the wild and by imposing fitness costs on their hosts they constitute an important selection factor. One of the most common parasites of wild birds are Plasmodium and Haemoproteus, protozoans inhabiting the blood, which cause avian malaria and malaria‐like disease, respectively. Although they are expected to cause negative effects in infected individuals, in many cases studies in natural populations failed to detect such effect. Using data from seven breeding seasons (2008–2014), we applied a multistate capture–mark–recapture approach to study the effect of infection with malaria and malaria‐like parasites, individual age and sex on the probability of survival and recapture rate in a small passerine, the blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus, inhabiting the island of Gotland, Sweden. We found no effect of infection on survival prospects. However, the recapture rate of infected individuals was higher than that of uninfected ones. Thus, while our data do not support the presence of infection costs in terms of host survival, it suggests that parasites from the genera Plasmodium and Haemoproteus may affect some aspects of host behaviour, which translates into biased estimation of infection frequency at the population level.     

Selection based on the size of the black tie of the great tit may be reversed in urban habitats

A standard approach to model how selection shapes phenotypic traits is the analysis of capture–recapture data relating trait variation to survival. Divergent selection, however, has never been analyzed by the capture–recapture approach. Most reported examples of differences between urban and nonurban animals reflect behavioral plasticity rather than divergent selection. The aim of this paper was to use a capture–recapture approach to test the hypothesis that divergent selection can also drive local adaptation in urban habitats. We focused on the size of the black breast stripe (i.e., tie width) of the great tit (Parus major), a sexual ornament used in mate choice. Urban great tits display smaller tie sizes than forest birds. Because tie size is mostly genetically determined, it could potentially respond to selection. We analyzed capture/recapture data of male great tits in Barcelona city (N = 171) and in a nearby (7 km) forest (N = 324) from 1992 to 2008 using MARK. When modelling recapture rate, we found it to be strongly influenced by tie width, so that both for urban and forest habitats, birds with smaller ties were more trap‐shy and more cautious than their larger tied counterparts. When modelling survival, we found that survival prospects in forest great tits increased the larger their tie width (i.e., directional positive selection), but the reverse was found for urban birds, with individuals displaying smaller ties showing higher survival (i.e., directional negative selection). As melanin‐based tie size seems to be related to personality, and both are heritable, results may be explained by cautious personalities being favored in urban environments. More importantly, our results show that divergent selection can be an important mechanism in local adaptation to urban habitats and that capture–recapture is a powerful tool to test it.     

A simulation study of three methods for estimating selective values and survival rates from recapture data

The methods ofManly (1973),Manly (1975) andManly (1977) for estimating survival rates and relative survival rates from recapture data have been compared by computer simulation. In the simulations batches of two types of animal were “released” at one point in “time” and recapture samples were taken at “daily” intervals from then on. The various methods of estimation were then used to estimate, the daily survival rates of type 1 and type 2 animals, and also the survival rate of the type 2 animals relative to the type 1 animals. Simulation experiments were designed to examine (a) the bias in estimates, (b) the relative precision of different methods of estimation, (c) the validity of confidence intervals for true parameter values, and (d) the effect on estimates of the failure of certain assumptions.     

Bayesian inference on age-specific survival for censored and truncated data

1. Traditional estimation of age-specific survival and mortality rates in vertebrates is limited to individuals with known age. Although this subject has been studied extensively using effective capture-recapture and capture-recovery models, inference remains challenging because of large numbers of incomplete records (i.e. unknown age of many individuals) and because of the inadequate duration of the studies. 2. Here, we present a hierarchical model for capture-recapture/recovery (CRR) data sets with large proportions of unknown times of birth and death. The model uses a Bayesian framework to draw inference on population-level age-specific demographic rates using parametric survival functions and applies this information to reconstruct times of birth and death for individuals with unknown age. 3. We simulated a set of CRR data sets with varying study span and proportions of individuals with known age, and varying recapture and recovery probabilities. We used these data sets to compare our method to a traditional CRR model, which requires knowledge of individual ages. Subsequently, we applied our method to a subset of a long-term CRR data set on Soay sheep. 4. Our results show that this method performs better than the common CRR model when sample sizes are low. Still, our model is sensitive to the choice of priors with low recapture probability and short studies. In such cases, priors that overestimate survival perform better than those that underestimate it. Also, the model was able to estimate accurately ages at death for Soay sheep, with an average error of 0.94 years and to identify differences in mortality rate between sexes. 5. Although many of the problems in the estimation of age-specific survival can be reduced through more efficient sampling schemes, most ecological data sets are still sparse and with a large proportion of missing records. Thus, improved sampling needs still to be combined with statistical models capable of overcoming the unavoidable limitations of any fieldwork. We show that our approach provides reliable estimates of parameters and unknown times of birth and death even with the most incomplete data sets while being flexible enough to accommodate multiple recapture probabilities and covariates.     

Demographic estimation methods for plants with unobservable life-states

Demographic estimation of vital parameters in plants with an unobservable dormant state is complicated, because time of death is not known. Conventional methods assume that death occurs at a particular time after a plant has last been seen aboveground but the consequences of assuming a particular duration of dormancy have never been tested. Capture–recapture methods do not make assumptions about time of death; however, problems with parameter estimability have not yet been resolved. To date, a critical comparative assessment of these methods is lacking. We analysed data from a 10 year study of Cleistes bifaria, a terrestrial orchid with frequent dormancy, and compared demographic estimates obtained by five varieties of the conventional methods, and two capture–recapture methods. All conventional methods produced spurious unity survival estimates for some years or for some states, and estimates of demographic rates sensitive to the time of death assumption. In contrast, capture–recapture methods are more parsimonious in terms of assumptions, are based on well founded theory and did not produce spurious estimates. In Cleistes, dormant episodes lasted for 1–4 years (mean 1.4, SD 0.74). The capture–recapture models estimated ramet survival rate at 0.86 (SE～0.01), ranging from 0.77–0.94 (SEs≤0.1) in any one year. The average fraction dormant was estimated at 30% (SE 1.5), ranging 16–47% (SEs≤5.1) in any one year. Multistate capture–recapture models showed that survival rates were positively related to precipitation in the current year, but transition rates were more strongly related to precipitation in the previous than in the current year, with more ramets going dormant following dry years. Not all capture–recapture models of interest have estimable parameters; for instance, without excavating plants in years when they do not appear aboveground, it is not possible to obtain independent time‐specific survival estimates for dormant plants. We introduce rigorous computer algebra methods to identify the parameters that are estimable in principle. As life‐states are a prominent feature in plant life cycles, multistate capture–recapture models are a natural framework for analysing population dynamics of plants with dormancy.     

Demographic consequences of changing body size in a terrestrial salamander

Changes in climate can alter individual body size, and the resulting shifts in reproduction and survival are expected to impact population dynamics and viability. However, appropriate methods to account for size‐dependent demographic changes are needed, especially in understudied yet threatened groups such as amphibians. We investigated individual‐ and population‐level demographic effects of changes in body size for a terrestrial salamander using capture–mark–recapture data. For our analysis, we implemented an integral projection model parameterized with capture–recapture likelihood estimates from a Bayesian framework. Our study combines survival and growth data from a single dataset to quantify the influence of size on survival while including different sources of uncertainty around these parameters, demonstrating how selective forces can be studied in populations with limited data and incomplete recaptures. We found a strong dependency of the population growth rate on changes in individual size, mediated by potential changes in selection on mean body size and on maximum body size. Our approach of simultaneous parameter estimation can be extended across taxa to identify eco‐evolutionary mechanisms acting on size‐specific vital rates, and thus shaping population dynamics and viability.     

ESTIMATING AND VISUALIZING FITNESS SURFACES USING MARK–RECAPTURE DATA

Understanding how selection operates on a set of phenotypic traits is central to evolutionary biology. Often, it requires estimating survival (or other fitness‐related life‐history traits) which can be difficult to obtain for natural populations because individuals cannot be exhaustively followed. To cope with this issue of imperfect detection, we advocate the use of mark‐recapture data and we provide a general framework for both the estimation of linear and nonlinear selection gradients and the visualization of fitness surfaces. To quantify the strength of selection, the standard second‐order polynomial regression method is integrated in mark‐recapture models. To visualize the form of selection, we use splines to display selection acting on multivariate phenotypes in the most flexible way. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework to estimate model parameters, assessing traits relevance and calculating the optimal amount of smoothing. We illustrate our approach using data from a wild population of Common blackbirds (Turdus merula) to investigate survival in relation to morphological traits, and provide evidence for correlational selection using the new methodology. Overall, the framework we propose will help in exploring the full potential of mark‐recapture data to study natural selection.