Warmer and richer? Predicting the impact of climate warming on species richness in small temperate waterbodies

Climate change is expected to affect communities worldwide. Many studies focus on responses at the regional level and show an increase in species richness. However, less is known about the consequences of climate change at the local scale (in ecosystems). Small waterbodies, such as ponds, could play an important role for the assessment of the impact of future changes in climate at the local level. We evaluated here the potential changes due to climate warming in the species richness for various groups (plants, snails, beetles, dragonflies, amphibians) across 113 lowland and high altitude ponds in Switzerland. We modelled the relationships between species richness and environmental variables (including temperature) and predicted species richness changes for the end of the century (2090–2100; using the A2 IPCC scenario). Temperature rise could significantly increase pond species richness. For the five taxonomic groups pooled, species richness would potentially increase from 41 to 75 (+83%) in lowland ponds. In presently species‐poor high altitude ponds, the potential increase would be particularly marked, with a proportional increase (+150%; from 14 to 35 species) almost double that in lowland areas. A strong increase in species richness also resulted from models including changes in additional variables, such as landuse or water quality. Future reductions in water quality (e.g. increase in nutrients) may limit the predicted increase in lowland species richness or, conversely, result in a greater increase in species richness in high altitude areas. Nutrient enrichment is shown to affect the taxonomic groups differentially, with plant species richness the most negatively influenced. Climate warming could therefore affect species richness of temperate ponds not only regionally, but also at the local, within ecosystems‐scale; species richness could increase markedly in temperate regions, and especially so at higher altitude.     

Butterfly diversity and historical land cover change along an altitudinal gradient

Land cover and climate change are both major threats for biodiversity. In mountain ecosystems species have to adapt to fragmented habitats and harsh environmental conditions but so far, altitudinal effects in combination with land cover change have been rarely studied. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of altitude and historical land cover change on butterfly diversity. We studied species richness patterns of butterflies occuring in wetlands and other open habitats along an altitudinal gradient in a low mountain region (340–750 m a.s.l., Bavaria, Germany) with drastic loss of open habitats within the last 40–60 years. We recorded in 27 sites a total of 4,523 individuals of 49 butterfly species and five species of burnet moths. Species richness peaked at mid elevation and increased with patch size. Land cover change was most pronounced at high altitudes, but neither current open habitats, nor the historical loss of open habitats affected the species richness of butterflies. Neither open land specialized butterflies nor generalist and forest species were significantly affected by the loss of open habitats. However, increasing forest area in high altitudes reduces possible refuge open habitats for butterflies at their thermal distribution limits. This could lead to extinction of such butterfly species when temperatures further rise due to global warming.     

Signals of range expansions and contractions of vascular plants in the high Alps: observations (1994–2004) at the GLORIA* master site Schrankogel,Tyrol, Austria

High mountain ecosystems are defined by low temperatures and are therefore considered to react sensitively to climate warming. Responding to observed changes in plant species richness on high peaks of the European Alps, an extensive setup of 1 m × 1 m permanent plots was established at the alpine‐nival ecotone (between 2900 and 3450 m) on Mount Schrankogel, a GLORIA master site in the central Tyrolean Alps, Austria, in 1994. Recording was repeated in a representative selection of 362 quadrats in 2004. Ten years after the first recording, we observed an average change in vascular plant species richness from 11.4 to 12.7 species per plot, an increase of 11.8% (or of at least 10.6% at a 95% confidence level). The increase in species richness involved 23 species (about 43% of all taxa found at the ecotone), comprising both alpine and nival species and was pronouncedly higher in plots with subnival/nival vegetation than in plots with alpine grassland vegetation. Only three species showed a decrease in plot occupancy: one was an annual species, one was rare, and one a common nival plant that decreased in one part of the area but increased in the uppermost part. Species cover changed in relation to altitudinal preferences of species, showing significant declines of all subnival to nival plants, whereas alpine pioneer species increased in cover. Recent climate warming in the Alps, which has been twice as high as the global average, is considered to be the primary driver of the observed differential changes in species cover. Our results indicate an ongoing range contraction of subnival to nival species at their rear (i.e. lower) edge and a concurrent expansion of alpine pioneer species at their leading edge. Although this was expected from predictive distribution models and different temperature‐related habitat preferences of alpine and nival species, we provide first evidence on – most likely – warming‐induced species declines in the high European Alps. The projected acceleration of climate warming raises concerns that this phenomenon could become the major threat to biodiversity in high mountains.     

Principal factors controlling the species richness of European fens differ between habitat specialists and matrix‐derived species

Aim

We present the first continental‐scale study of factors controlling the species richness of groundwater‐fed fens, comparing land snails, vascular plants and bryophytes. We separately analyse two ecologically distinct groups differing in conservation value and colonization/extinction dynamics, that is habitat specialists, and matrix‐derived species. Considering the island‐like nature of fen habitats, we hypothesize larger differences in the species richness–environment relationships between habitat specialists and matrix‐derived species than among the taxonomic entities.

Location

Seven European regions

Methods

Richness was counted at 373 well‐preserved fens with undisturbed hydrology using the same protocols. Relationships between the species richness and water pH, waterlogging, climate and geography were explored by GLMs.

Results

Land snail richness responded mainly to water pH, regardless of habitat specialization. Richness of vascular plant and bryophyte specialists was strongly driven by geographical location of the sites, while that of matrix‐derived species was driven by waterlogging and water pH. The richness of matrix‐derived species of all taxa significantly increased with the decreasing waterlogging. Residual richness of specialists of all taxa decreased towards southern Europe.

Main conclusions

In island‐like terrestrial habitats, differences between specialists and matrix‐derived species may outweigh differences among taxa, unless there is one strong physiological determinant of species richness such as pH in land snails. The richness of specialists seems to be strongly related to difficult‐to‐measure regional factors such as historical frequency and connectivity of fen habitats. The richness of matrix‐derived species depends mainly on local conditions, such as pH and waterlogging, determining the degree of habitat contrast against the surrounding matrix. Sufficient waterlogging maintains a high representation of habitat specialists in fen communities, and disturbance of water regime may cause the increase in the number of matrix‐derived species and potentially trigger successional shifts towards non‐fen communities.

     

Imprints of glacial history and current environment on correlations between endemic plant and invertebrate species richness

Aim We evaluate how closely diversity patterns of endemic species of vascular plants, beetles, butterflies, molluscs and spiders are correlated with each other, and to what extent similar environmental requirements or survival in common glacial refugia and comparable dispersal limitations account for their existing congruence. Location Austria. Methods We calculated pairwise correlations among species numbers of the five taxonomic groups in 1405 cells of a 3′ × 5′ raster (c. 35 km²) using the raw data as well as the residuals of regression models that accounted for: (1) environmental variables, (2) environmental variables and the occurrence of potential refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum, or (3) environmental variables, refugia and spatial filters. Results Pairwise cross‐taxonomic group Spearman’s rank correlations in the raw data were significantly positive in most cases, but only moderate (0.3 < ρ < 0.5) to weak (ρ < 0.3) throughout. Correlations were closest between plants and beetles, plants and butterflies, and plants and snails, respectively, whereas the distribution of endemic spiders was largely uncorrelated with those of the other groups. Environmental variables explained only a moderate proportion of the variance in endemic richness patterns, and the response of individual groups to environmental gradients was only partly consistent. The inclusion of refugium locations and the spatial filters increased the goodness of model fit for all five taxonomic groups. Moreover, removing the effects of environmental conditions reduced congruence in endemic richness patterns to a lesser extent than did filtering the influence of refugium locations and spatial autocorrelation, except for spiders, which are probably the least dispersal‐limited of the five groups. Main conclusions The moderate to weak congruence of endemic richness patterns clearly limits the usefulness of a surrogacy approach for designating areas for the protection of regional endemics. On the other hand, our results suggest that dispersal limitations still shape the distributions of many endemic plant, snail, beetle and butterfly species, even at the regional scale; that is, survival in shared refugia and subsequent restricted spread retain a detectable signal in existing correlations. Concentrating conservation efforts on well‐known Pleistocene refugia hence appears to be a reasonable first step towards a strategy for protecting regional endemics of at least the less mobile invertebrate groups.     

An elevational shift in butterfly species richness and composition accompanying recent climate change

The geographic ranges of many species have shifted polewards and uphill in elevation associated with climate warming, leading to increases in species richness at high latitudes and elevations. However, few studies have addressed community‐level responses to climate change across the entire elevational gradients of mountain ranges, or at warm lower latitudes where ecological diversity is expected to decline. Here, we show uphill shifts in butterfly species richness and composition in the Sierra de Guadarrama (central Spain) between 1967–1973 and 2004–2005. Butterfly communities with comparable species compositions shifted uphill by 293 m (± SE 26), consistent with an upward shift of approximately 225 m in mean annual isotherms. Species richness had a humped relationship with elevation, but declined between surveys, particularly at low elevations. Changes to species richness and composition primarily reflect the loss from lower elevations of species whose regional distributions are restricted to the mountains. The few colonizations by specialist low‐elevation species failed to compensate for the loss of high‐elevation species, because there are few low‐elevation species in the region and the habitat requirements of some of these prevent them from colonizing the mountain range. As a result, we estimated a net decline in species richness in approximately 90% of the region, and increasing community domination by widespread species. The results suggest that climate warming, combined with habitat loss and other drivers of biological change, could lead to significant losses in ecological diversity in mountains and other regions where species encounter their lower latitudinal‐range margins.     

Alpine glacial relict species losing out to climate change: The case of the fragmented mountain hare population (Lepus timidus) in the Alps

Alpine and Arctic species are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change, which is expected to cause habitat loss, fragmentation and—ultimately—extinction of cold‐adapted species. However, the impact of climate change on glacial relict populations is not well understood, and specific recommendations for adaptive conservation management are lacking. We focused on the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) as a model species and modelled species distribution in combination with patch and landscape‐based connectivity metrics. They were derived from graph‐theory models to quantify changes in species distribution and to estimate the current and future importance of habitat patches for overall population connectivity. Models were calibrated based on 1,046 locations of species presence distributed across three biogeographic regions in the Swiss Alps and extrapolated according to two IPCC scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 & 8.5), each represented by three downscaled global climate models. The models predicted an average habitat loss of 35% (22%–55%) by 2100, mainly due to an increase in temperature during the reproductive season. An increase in habitat fragmentation was reflected in a 43% decrease in patch size, a 17% increase in the number of habitat patches and a 34% increase in inter‐patch distance. However, the predicted changes in habitat availability and connectivity varied considerably between biogeographic regions: Whereas the greatest habitat losses with an increase in inter‐patch distance were predicted at the southern and northern edges of the species’ Alpine distribution, the greatest increase in patch number and decrease in patch size is expected in the central Swiss Alps. Finally, both the number of isolated habitat patches and the number of patches crucial for maintaining the habitat network increased under the different variants of climate change. Focusing conservation action on the central Swiss Alps may help mitigate the predicted effects of climate change on population connectivity.     

Patterns of bryophyte and vascular plant richness in European subalpine springs

The diversity of spring habitats can be determined not only by local environmental conditions, but also by large-scale biogeographical effects. The effects can differ across various groups of organisms. We compared α-, β- and γ-diversity patterns of bryophytes and vascular plants of (sub)alpine springs in three contrasting mountain ranges: Alps (Switzerland), Balkans (Bulgaria), Western Carpathians (Slovakia, Poland). We used univariate and multivariate statistics to test for the effects of pH, conductivity, altitude, slope, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation on diversity patterns of both taxonomic groups and compared diversity patterns among the regions for particular pH and conductivity classes. We identified acidophyte and basiphyte, calcifuge and calcicole species using species response modelling. All regions displayed significant relationship between conductivity and α-diversity of vascular plants. Bulgaria showed the highest α-diversity of vascular plants for the middle part of the conductivity gradient. For both taxonomic groups, the β-diversity in the middle part of gradient was highest in Swiss Alps. The total species pool was lowest in Bulgaria. The percentage of basiphyte and calcicole species was highest in the Alps. In (sub)alpine springs, mineral richness was a better determinant of vascular plant α-diversity than pH, and the extent of the alpine area did not coincide with α-diversity. Observed inter-regional differences in diversity patterns could be explained by the different proportion of limestone bedrock and different biogeographic history. The differences in α-diversity between both taxonomic groups are presumably result of the different rates of adaptation processes.     

Rapid altitudinal migration of mountain plants in Taiwan and its implications for high altitude biodiversity

Mountain systems throughout the globe are characterized by high levels of species richness and species endemism. Biodiversity, however, is not distributed evenly with altitude, but often declines from mid to high altitudes. Conversely, endemic species may be over‐represented at high altitudes. Upward elevational range shifts of mountain species have been reported in response to ongoing changes in climate, yet the reports are dominated by studies on woody species and mountains at high latitudes. We investigated spatial and temporal changes in the mountain biodiversity in the subtropical island of Taiwan, based on historical survey and resurvey data during the period 1906–2006. We found that upper altitudinal limits of mountain plant distributions have risen by ca 3.6 m yr^?1 during the last century, in parallel with rising temperatures in the region. Although species, genus, and family richness decline with altitude, ca 55% of species at the highest altitudes are endemic to the island. Given the steep decline in land area with increasing elevation, these high altitude areas are disproportionately important for plant biodiversity when richness and endemism are standardized by available land area. We argue that the distributional shift that we report, in combination with the altitudinal distribution of plant diversity, is likely to pose a major threat to high mountain species of this highly biodiverse island, a threat that is becoming increasingly evident for high mountain plants throughout the globe.     

新疆东部天山蝶类多样性及其垂直分布

2006-2008年研究了新疆东部天山蝶类多样性和垂直分布.结果表明:研究区域内共记录蝴蝶7科43属63种,占新疆已记录蝶类种数的24.80％,区系组成主要是古北种,占73％;其次是广布种,占27％,没有发现东洋种.其中蛱蝶科的物种数最多,为11属19种,蚬蝶科的物种数最少,只有1属1种.按海拔将生境分为5个垂直自然带,包括低山灌木草原带、山地森林草原带、亚高山草甸带、高山草甸带、垫状植被带.蝶类物种数和个体数排序为亚高山草甸带＞山地森林草原带＞低山灌木草原带＞高山草甸带＞垫状植被带.采用Shannon-Wiener指数和G-F指数对蝶类物种和科、属的多样性进行了分析评价,结果显示亚高山草甸带的蝶类多样性最为丰富,其次是山地森林草原带和低山灌木草原带,而高山草甸带和垫状植被带的蝶类多样性相对较低,物种和科、属多样性分析结果均一致.蝶类垂直分布明显,物种数和个体数随海拔变化的趋势类似,均为先增加后下降.蝶类区系成分随着海拔升高发生改变,广布种的比例逐渐降低,高山草甸带和垫状植被带只有古北种分布.研究结果显示,生境改变对蝴蝶群落影响明显,保护生境是保护蝴蝶生存的最主要措施.     

What determines Orthoptera species distribution and richness in temperate semi-natural dry grassland remnants?

Wide-spread fragmentation and isolation of habitats with high nature conservation value lends increasing importance to a better understanding of the factors which determine species richness in isolated habitat patches. Using data of one of the most abundant invertebrate groups in grasslands, Orthoptera, we analysed how species richness and distribution in 60 isolated semi-natural grassland remnants in Austria were affected by five environmental variables (altitude, habitat and land use diversity within each patch, habitat diversity of areas adjacent to each patch, patch size), and related to diversity of their main food source, i.e. vascular plants. We found a significant positive correlation between Orthoptera and vascular plant species richness, with threatened Orthoptera species having the lowest correlation coefficients. Life form diversity of plants was only moderately positively correlated with Orthoptera species richness. Habitat diversity within and adjacent to the grassland patch had by far the highest loadings on the first two axes of the principal component analysis, which jointly explained 99?% of the variance, and proved to be significant for total, threatened and not threatened Orthoptera, as well as for the two Orthoptera orders occurring in Central Europe (Caelifera, Ensifera). Additionally, the distribution of the majority of those 14 Orthoptera species analysed individually was mainly correlated with habitat diversity within and adjacent to the grassland patch. However, the distribution of a significant proportion of species was associated with other factors: five species were closely related to on-site land use diversity and patch size, and the distribution of three Ensifera species was not significantly correlated to any of the explanatory variables. We conclude that a surrogate taxa approach, i.e. the use of well-known taxonomic groups (e.g. vascular plants), may indeed deliver good results for capturing total, but less so for threatened, Orthoptera species richness in semi-natural grassland remnants. Small scale habitat diversity may be crucial to allow for the co-existence of a large number of Orthoptera species and has to be taken equally into account as patch size in nature conservation.     

Concordance of species richness patterns among multiple freshwater taxa: a regional perspective

Geographical gradients in species richness and the degree to which different taxa show congruent patterns remain unknown for many taxonomic groups. Here, I examined broad-scale species richness patterns in five groups of freshwater organisms; macrophytes, dragonflies, stoneflies, aquatic beetles and fishes. The analyses were based on provincial distribution records in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland. In general, variation in species richness across provinces was concordant among the groups, but stoneflies showed weaker negative relationships with the other taxonomic groups. Species richness in most groups decreased with increasing latitude and altitude, and a considerable part of the variation was explained by mean July temperature. However, stoneflies showed a reversed pattern, with species richness correlating positively, albeit more weakly, with mean provincial altitude. Nevertheless, combined species richness of all five taxa showed a strong relationship with mean July temperature, accounting for 74% of variation in provincial species richness alone. Such temperature-controlled patterns suggest that regional freshwater biodiversity will strongly respond to climate change, with repercussions for local community organization in freshwater ecosystems in Fennoscandia.     

Does natural reforestation represent a potential threat to dung beetle diversity in the Alps?

Traditional agro-pastoral practices are in decline over much of the Alps, resulting in the complete elimination of livestock grazing in some areas. Natural reforestation following pastoral abandonment may represent a significant threat to alpine biodiversity, especially that associated with open habitats. This study presents the first assessment of the potential effects of natural reforestation on dung beetles by exploring the relationships between the beetle community (abundance, diversity, species turnover and assemblage structure) and the vegetation stages of ecological succession following pastoral abandonment. A hierarchical sampling design was used in the montane belt of the Sessera Valley (north-western Italian Alps). Dung beetles were sampled across 16 sampling sites set in four habitat types corresponding to four different successional stages (pasture, shrub, pioneer forest and beech forest) at two altitudinal levels. The two habitats at the extremes of the ecological succession, i.e. pasture and beech forest, had the greatest effect on the structure of local dung beetle assemblages. Overall, dung beetle abundance was greater in beech forest, whereas species richness, Shannon diversity and taxonomic diversity were significantly higher in pasture, hence suggesting this latter habitat can be considered as a key conservation habitat. Forests and pastures shared a lower number of species than the other pairs of habitats (i.e. species turnover between these two habitats was the highest). The two intermediate seral stages, i.e. shrub and pioneer forest, showed low dung beetle abundance and diversity values. Local dung beetle assemblages were also dependent on season and altitude; early-arriving species were typical of pastures of high elevation, whereas late-arriving species were typical of beech forests. It is likely that grazing in the Alps will continue to decrease in the future leading to replacement of open habitats by forest. This study suggests therefore that, at least in the montane belt, reforestation may have potentially profound and negative effects on dung beetle diversity. Maintaining traditional pastoral activities appears to be the most promising approach to preserve open habitats and adjacent beech forests, resulting in the conservation of species of both habitats.     

Biodiversity surrogate effectiveness in two habitat types of contrasting gradient complexity

Enormous and increasing loss of biodiversity requires evaluation of surrogate taxa as a tool for conservation biology and new reserve selection, in spite of the fact that this approach has become questionable. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of gradient complexity on species richness and community composition among three taxonomic groups. We compared efficiency of vascular plants to indicate diversity of cryptogams (bryophytes, lichens) and snails in two contrasting habitat types (treeless fens and forests) within the same geographic region. We examined correlation of their species richness (Spearman rank correlation), community composition (Bray–Curtis similarity, Mantel test) and their responses to environmental variables (detrended and canonical correspondence analysis). We also focused on Red List species. We found that spatial congruence among studied taxa was affected by habitat type, however vascular plants were good indicator of snail biodiversity in both habitats. Nevertheless, all significant positive correlations of species richness were associated with the congruence in main environmental gradients. Although there was a consistency in significantly positive cross-taxon correlation in community similarity, the congruence was insufficient for conservation purposes. Furthermore we confirmed the necessity of integration of at-risk species in conservation planning as Red List species were poor indicators for total species richness and vice versa. We suggest the complementation of existing reserve network with small-scale protected areas focused on conservation of at-risk ecosystems, communities or species. In this study vascular plants were not found as a sufficient indicator for fine-filter conservation of other taxa.     

A complex history of introgression and vicariance in a threatened montane skink (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pseudemoia cryodroma</Emphasis>) across an Australian sky island system

Species endemic to sky island systems are isolated to mountain peaks and high elevation plateaux both geographically and ecologically, making them particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Pressures associated with climate change have already been linked to local extinctions of montane species, emphasizing the importance of understanding the genetic diversity and population connectivity within sky islands systems for the conservation management of remaining populations. Our study focuses on the endangered alpine skink Pseudemoia cryodroma, which is endemic to the Victorian Alps in south-eastern Australia, and has a disjunct distribution in montane habitats above 1100 m a.s.l. Using mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellite loci, we investigated species delimitation, genetic connectivity and population genetic structure across the geographic range of this species. We found discordance between genetic markers, indicating historical mtDNA introgression at one of the study sites between P. cryodroma and the closely related, syntopic P. entrecasteauxii. Molecular diversity was positively associated with site elevation and extent of suitable habitat, with inbreeding detected in three of the five populations. These results demonstrate the complex interaction between geography and habitat in shaping the population structure and genetic diversity of P. cryodroma, and highlight the importance of minimising future habitat loss and fragmentation for the long-term persistence of this species.     

Plant and habitat use by Black‐breasted Pufflegs (Eriocnemis nigrivestis), a critically endangered hummingbird

Black‐breasted Pufflegs (Eriocnemis nigrivestis) are hummingbirds endemic to Ecuador and are considered critically endangered because of their limited distribution, a population estimated at fewer than 1000 individuals, and ongoing habitat degradation. From November 2013 to June 2016, we examined the foraging preferences of these hummingbirds using a combination of direct observations, time‐lapse cameras, and motion‐detection software. We first identified 21 species of ornithophilous plants distributed among five sites in the northwestern flanks of the Pichincha volcano in northwest Ecuador. We then monitored these plant species using time‐lapse cameras and recorded 144 visits by Black‐breasted Pufflegs to seven of the 21 species. Most visits (128 of 144 visits, 89%) were to just two species of plants, Macleania rupestris and Palicourea fuchsioides, the latter of which is also an endemic and threatened species. In addition, Black‐breasted Pufflegs were only observed in the most pristine habitats. Given the potential negative effects of climate change for species in the tropical Andes plus the possible loss and degradation of habitat resulting from human activities, efforts are needed to conserve habitats currently used by Black‐breasted Pufflegs, recover degraded habitats, and connect isolated patches of suitable habitat. Our results concerning species of flowering plants used most by Black‐breasted Pufflegs (P. fuchsioides and M. rupestris) should help guide any habitat restoration initiatives.     

Fire‐induced taxonomic and functional changes in saproxylic beetle communities in fire sensitive regions

It is often suggested that fire acts as an environmental filter that selects species and functional traits, and reduces trait variability within communities, affecting ecosystem function and underlying services. This may be particularly important in fire‐sensitive ecosystems, such as the central European Alps, where fires are scarce. According to climate and land use change scenarios in Europe, fire risk will increase during the next decades, raising important questions about the maintenance of ecological and functional resilience in these regions. We used two families of saproxylic beetles (i.e. Cerambycidae and Buprestidae) as model group to test the combined effect of fire and altitude on species and trait composition in the central Alps of Switzerland. Trait response was based on weighted means and variation of 15 traits over the communities. Our results showed an overall positive effect of fire on taxonomic and functional diversity, while indicator species and community analyses revealed that the response to fire was also modulated by altitude. The positive effect of fire and the presence of large populations of pyrophilous species suggest co‐evolution with fire and adaptation to disturbance in the Alps. Biodiversity in the central Alps might thus be more resilient to fire than expected. In the light of climatic and land use changes, forest management and species conservation in the central Alps have to consider fire one of the major disruptive factors that have shaped and will shape species composition and ecosystem services.     

Role of climate and geohistorical factors in driving plant richness patterns and endemicity on the east Asian continental islands

We investigated the roles of climate, geography, and geology in plant diversity and endemicity on the east Asian continental islands, by testing predictions from contrasting hypotheses considering current climate, habitat stability, and isolation as major drivers of plant richness and endemicity. We created a fine‐resolution map of vascular plant richness (5614 species) with 10 × 10 km grid cells. Using this large dataset and regression models, we explored correlations between species richness/number of endemics and temperature, precipitation, Quaternary temperature/precipitation changes, Quaternary alluvial development and volcanic disturbances (presence of alluvial plains and of pyroclastic flows), distance from the continent, and elevation. We applied these analyses to the vascular plant assemblage as a whole and separately to trees, herbs, and ferns. Temperature and precipitation were associated with the richness of vascular plants overall and of their endemics. Quaternary temperature change was negatively associated with the richness of vascular plants overall and of their endemics. The presence of pyroclastic flows and of lowland alluvial plains was negatively associated with those. Distance from the continent and elevation were positively associated with endemic species richness, especially those of trees and herbs. While current climate was an important predictor of species richness (especially of ferns), geographical isolation and habitat stability were the main predictors of the endemic species richness of trees and herbs. The relative importance of current climate and historical factors may be related to the dispersal ability of functional groups. Our results illustrate that the diverse geographical conditions reflecting the characteristics of the island led to the various historical effects on biodiversity patterns. The highly endemic flora on the east Asian islands resulted from species accumulation and in situ diversification, suggesting that the climate and historical hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, but can be reconciled as the interplay between recent ecological and evolutionary processes.     

Assessing the vulnerability of an assemblage of subtropical rainforest vertebrate species to climate change in south‐east Queensland

Global climate change is a threat to ecosystems that are rich in biodiversity and endemism, such as the World Heritage‐listed subtropical rainforests of central eastern Australia. Possible effects of climate change on the biota of tropical rainforests have been studied, but subtropical rainforests have received less attention. We analysed published data for an assemblage of 38 subtropical rainforest vertebrate species in four taxonomic groups to evaluate their relative vulnerability to climate change. Focusing on endemic and/or threatened species, we considered two aspects of vulnerability: (i) resistance, defined by indicators of rarity (geographical range, habitat specificity and local abundance); and (ii) resilience, defined by indicators of a species potential to recover (reproductive output, dispersal potential and climatic niche). Our analysis indicated that frogs are most vulnerable to climate change, followed by reptiles, birds, then mammals. Many species in our assemblage are regionally endemic montane rainforest specialists with high vulnerability. Monitoring of taxa in regenerating rainforest showed that many species with high resilience traits also persisted in disturbed habitat, suggesting that they have capacity to recolonize habitats after disturbance, that is climate change‐induced events. These results will allow us to prioritize adaptation strategies for species most at risk. We conclude that to safeguard the most vulnerable amphibian, reptile and bird species against climate change, climatically stable habitats (cool refugia) that are currently without protection status need to be identified, restored and incorporated in the current reserve system. Our study provides evidence that montane subtropical rainforest deserves highest protection status as habitat for vulnerable taxa.     

Diversity of Central European urban biota: effects of human‐made habitat types on plants and land snails

Aim Urbanization is associated with strong changes in biodiversity, but the diversity of plant and animal assemblages varies among urban habitats. We studied effects of urban habitats on the diversity of vascular plants and land snails in 32 large cities. Location Central Europe, Belgium and the Netherlands. Methods The species composition of all vascular plants that had not been planted by humans, and all land snails, was recorded in seven 1‐ha plots within each city. Each plot contained one urban habitat type representing a different disturbance regime: historical city square, boulevard, residential area with compact building pattern, residential area with open building pattern, park, early successional and mid‐successional site. For each plot, we obtained temperature and precipitation data. The effects of climate and habitat types on species composition were quantified using ordination methods with an adjusted variation partitioning algorithm. Differences in species composition among urban habitats were described using statistically determined diagnostic species, and differences in alpha, beta and gamma diversity were quantified. Results A total of 1196 plant and 87 snail species were recorded. Habitat type explained higher proportions of the total variation in both plant and snail species composition (11.2 and 8.2%, respectively) than did climate (4.6 and 6.3%). For both taxa, the main differences in species composition were observed between strongly urbanized sites in city centres and early successional and mid‐successional sites. For vascular plants, the number of species was lowest in city squares and boulevards, and highest at successional sites and in residential areas with compact building patterns. Beta diversity of vascular plants calculated for the same habitat types among cities was highest for squares and successional sites. The number of snail species was lowest in city squares and at early successional sites, and highest at mid‐successional sites. The highest beta diversity of snail assemblages among cities was observed within the city square and early successional habitat types, and the lowest within residential area habitat types. Main conclusions Urban habitats differ notably in the diversity of their vascular plant flora and land snail fauna. Understanding the habitat‐related biodiversity patterns in urbanized landscapes will allow projections of future impacts of urban land‐use changes on the biota.