Short-term signals of climate change along an altitudinal gradient in the South Alps

Short-term changes in plant species number, frequency and composition were studied along an altitudinal gradient crossing four summits from the treeline ecotone to the subnival zone in the South Alps (Dolomites, Italy). Large-scale (summit areas) and small-scale patterns (16 plots of 1 m2/summit) were monitored. After 5 years, a re-visitation of the summit areas revealed a considerable increase of species richness at the upper alpine and subnival zone (10% and 9%, respectively) and relatively modest increases at the lower alpine zone and the treeline ecotone (3% and 1%, respectively). At the small scale, the results were partly different, with species richness decreasing at the lower summits and increasing at the higher summits. The changes can most likely be attributed to climate warming effects and to competitive interactions. The main newcomers at the lower three summits were species from the treeline and the lower altitudinal zones. Only at the highest summit, the newcomers came from the alpine species pool. At the treeline ecotone, the abundance of Pinus cembra, of dwarf shrubs and clonal graminoid species increased. Here, displacements of alpine species may be predicted for the near future. At the higher summits, expansions of the established alpine species and further invasions of species from lower altitudes are forecasted.     

Changes in plant species richness over the last century in the eastern Swiss Alps: elevational gradient, bedrock effects and migration rates

Areas of 2,800–3,000 m a.s.l. represent the alpine-nival ecotone in the Alps. This transition zone connecting the closed swards of the alpine belt and the scattered vegetation of the nival belt may show particularly strong climate warming driven fluctuations in plant species richness compared to the nival belt. To test this hypothesis, 12 summits within this range were investigated in the canton of Grisons, Switzerland in 2004. Complete lists of vascular plant species consisting of 5–70 species were collected on each summit and the elevation of the uppermost occurrence of each species was recorded. These data were compared to historical records over 120 years in age. Within this time, vascular plant species richness increased by 11% per decade on summits in the alpine-nival ecotone. Despite this considerable change, a comparison with nival summits did not support the hypothesis that species richness increase at the alpine-nival ecotone is higher than in the nival belt. A general trend of upward migration in the range of several metres per decade could be observed. Anemochorous species were more often found to be migrating than zoochorous or autochorous species and migration was higher on calcareous than on siliceous bedrock. A comparison between the summits with the adjacent slopes in our study revealed that changes in species number could be used as an indicator for climate-induced changes—if at all—only for the narrow summit areas.     

Spatial patterns of plant richness across treeline ecotones in the Pyrenees reveal different locations for richness and tree cover boundaries

Aim  To forecast the responses of alpine flora to the expected upward shift of treeline ecotones due to climatic warming, we investigated species richness patterns of vascular plants at small spatial scales across elevational transects.
Location  Richness patterns were assessed at local scales along the elevational gradient in two undisturbed treeline ecotones and one disturbed treeline ecotone in the Spanish Pyrenees.
Methods  We placed a rectangular plot (0.3–0.4 ha) in each treeline ecotone. We estimated and described the spatial patterns of plant richness using the point method and Moran's I correlograms. We delineated boundaries based on plant richness and tree cover using moving split windows and wavelet analysis. Then, to determine if floristic and tree cover boundaries were spatially related, overlap statistics were used.
Results  Plant richness increased above the forest limit and was negatively related to tree cover in the undisturbed sites. The mean size of richness patches in one of these sites was 10–15 m. Moving split windows and wavelets detected the sharpest changes in plant richness above the forest limit at both undisturbed sites. Most tree cover and plant richness boundaries were not spatially related.
Main conclusions  The upslope decrease of tree cover may explain the increase of plant richness across alpine treeline ecotones. However, the detection of abrupt richness boundaries well above the forest limit indicates the importance of local environmental heterogeneity to explain the patterns of plant richness at smaller scales. We found highly diverse microsites dominated by alpine species above the forest limit, which should be monitored to describe their response to the predicted upward shift of forests.     

Timing of sexual reproduction and reproductive success in the high-mountain plant Saxifraga bryoides L

SAXIFRAGA BRYOIDES L. is one of the plant species reaching the upper limits of distribution for flowering plants in the European Alps. Because of its abundance in the subnival and nival zones, we expected S. BRYOIDES to reproduce efficiently in the highly stochastic climate at higher altitudes. Investigations were carried out at two subnival sites (2650 m and 2880 m a.s.l.) in the Austrian Alps. We studied flowering phenology, dynamics of seed development, and reproductive success in the climatically different years from 2001 - 2004. For a nival plant species, S. BRYOIDES showed a particularly long prefloration period (6 - 9 weeks). From onset of anthesis until seed maturity took an individual flower another 6 - 7 weeks and all individuals at a site 9 - 10 weeks. The length of the prefloration period and seed histogenesis was temperature-dependent, whereas seed maturation seemed to be endogenously controlled. Only in the exceptionally long and warm growing season of 2003 did all fruits mature at a site. In the other years, the onset of winter conditions halted development in many fruits before maturity. The seed/ovule ratio of mature fruits was around 0.7 in all years. The relative reproductive success (RRS) ranged from zero to 0.7, depending on the site and year. In conclusion, S. BRYOIDES needs an unexpectedly long time to undergo reproductive development. Though fruit maturation is uncertain, the high S/O ratio of single intact fruits results in at least a small seed crop in most years. This seems to be sufficient to assure the spread and maintenance of S. BRYOIDES at higher altitudes. As a seed-risk strategist (Molau,1993), S. BRYOIDES would clearly benefit from a prolonged growing season, which might occur more often if climate warming continues.     

Alpine flora dynamics – a critical review of responses to climate change in the Swedish Scandes since the early 1950s

Reports about changes of alpine plant species richness over the past 60 years in the Swedish Scandes are reviewed, synthesized and updated with data from recent reinventories. Methodologically, this endeavour is based on resurveys of the floristic composition on the uppermost 20 m of four high‐mountain summits. The key finding is that the species pool has increased by 60–170% since the 1950s and later. Some of the invading species are new to the alpine tundra, with more silvine and thermophilic properties than the extant alpine flora. Not a single species of the original flora has disappeared from any of the summits. This circumstance is discussed in perspective of widespread expectations of pending temperature‐driven extinction of alpine species in an alleged future warmer climate. These progressive changes coincided with distinct warming (summer and winter) since the late 1980s. During a short cooler period (1974–1994), the species numbers decreased and the upper elevational limits of some ground cover species descended. Thus, discernible responses, concurrent with both warming and cooling intervals, sustain a strong causal link between climate variability and alpine plant species richness. Methodologically, plot‐less revisitation studies of the present kind are beset with substantial uncertainties, which may overstate floristic changes over time. However, it is argued here that carefully executed and critically interpreted, no other method can equally effectively sense the earliest phases of plant invasions into alpine vegetation.     

Snowbeds are more affected than other subalpine–alpine plant communities by climate change in the Swiss Alps

While the upward shift of plant species has been observed on many alpine and nival summits, the reaction of the subalpine and lower alpine plant communities to the current warming and lower snow precipitation has been little investigated so far. To this aim, 63 old, exhaustive plant inventories, distributed along a subalpine–alpine elevation gradient of the Swiss Alps and covering different plant community types (acidic and calcareous grasslands; windy ridges; snowbeds), were revisited after 25–50 years. Old and recent inventories were compared in terms of species diversity with Simpson diversity and Bray–Curtis dissimilarity indices, and in terms of community composition with principal component analysis. Changes in ecological conditions were inferred from the ecological indicator values. The alpha‐diversity increased in every plant community, likely because of the arrival of new species. As observed on mountain summits, the new species led to a homogenization of community compositions. The grasslands were quite stable in terms of species composition, whatever the bedrock type. Indeed, the newly arrived species were part of the typical species pool of the colonized community. In contrast, snowbed communities showed pronounced vegetation changes and a clear shift toward dryer conditions and shorter snow cover, evidenced by their colonization by species from surrounding grasslands. Longer growing seasons allow alpine grassland species, which are taller and hence more competitive, to colonize the snowbeds. This study showed that subalpine–alpine plant communities reacted differently to the ongoing climate changes. Lower snow/rain ratio and longer growing seasons seem to have a higher impact than warming, at least on plant communities dependent on long snow cover. Consequently, they are the most vulnerable to climate change and their persistence in the near future is seriously threatened. Subalpine and alpine grasslands are more stable, and, until now, they do not seem to be affected by a warmer climate.     

The subnival–nival vascular plant species of Iran: a unique high-mountain flora and its threat from climate warming

This study provides a first country-wide overview of the vertical distribution patterns and the chorology of vascular plant species that occur in the uppermost elevation zones in Iran. The current distribution patterns are discussed with respect to potential warming-induced species losses. Iran’s subnival and nival vegetation zones are found at elevations above 3600–3900 m in a highly fragmented distribution across Alborz, Zagros, and NW-Iran. Based on literature research and on field observations, all vascular plant species living in the subnival–nival zone of Iranian mountains were identified (151 species) and classified into three altitudinal groups: Group A comprises species that occur mainly in subnival–nival habitats (51 species). Group B are species being common in subnival–nival areas but are equally present in the alpine zone (56 species). Group C are species that can reach to subnival areas but also grow in alpine, subalpine and sometimes lower altitudes (44 species). The chorological patterns differ among the three groups. The percentage of species being endemic to Iran decreases from group A, to B and C, with 68, 53 and 20%, respectively. A narrow altitudinal distribution at high elevations is clearly related to a small-scaled geographical distribution range. The outstanding rate of high-altitude endemism appears to result mainly from orographic isolation of the country’s highly scattered cold areas and by the absence of extensive Pleistocene glaciations. The narrow distribution of most of Iran’s cold-adapted mountain flora and the low potential of alternative cold habitats render it highly vulnerable to climate change.     

Modelling snow cover duration improves predictions of functional and taxonomic diversity for alpine plant communities

Background and Aims Quantifying relationships between snow cover duration and plant community properties remains an important challenge in alpine ecology. This study develops a method to estimate spatial variation in energy availability in the context of a topographically complex, high-elevation watershed, which was used to test the explanatory power of environmental gradients both with and without snow cover in relation to taxonomic and functional plant diversity.Methods Snow cover in the French Alps was mapped at 15-m resolution using Landsat imagery for five recent years, and a generalized additive model (GAM) was fitted for each year linking snow to time and topography. Predicted snow cover maps were combined with air temperature and solar radiation data at daily resolution, summed for each year and averaged across years. Equivalent growing season energy gradients were also estimated without accounting for snow cover duration. Relationships were tested between environmental gradients and diversity metrics measured for 100 plots, including species richness, community-weighted mean traits, functional diversity and hyperspectral estimates of canopy chlorophyll content.Key Results Accounting for snow cover in environmental variables consistently led to improved predictive power as well as more ecologically meaningful characterizations of plant diversity. Model parameters differed significantly when fitted with and without snow cover. Filtering solar radiation with snow as compared without led to an average gain in R² of 0·26 and reversed slope direction to more intuitive relationships for several diversity metrics.Conclusions The results show that in alpine environments high-resolution data on snow cover duration are pivotal for capturing the spatial heterogeneity of both taxonomic and functional diversity. The use of climate variables without consideration of snow cover can lead to erroneous predictions of plant diversity. The results further indicate that studies seeking to predict the response of alpine plant communities to climate change need to consider shifts in both temperature and nival regimes.     

Vegetation patterns at the alpine treeline ecotone: the influence of tree cover on abrupt change in species composition of alpine communities

Aims: The upper elevation limit of forest vegetation in mountain ranges (the alpine treeline ecotone) is expected to be highly sensitive to global change. Treeline shifts and/or ecotone afforestation could cause fragmentation and loss of alpine habitat, and are expected to trigger considerable alterations in alpine vegetation. We performed an analysis of vegetation structure at the treeline ecotone to evaluate whether distribution of the tree population determines the spatial pattern of vegetation (species composition and diversity) across the transition from subalpine forest to alpine vegetation. Location: Iberian eastern range of the Pyrenees. Methods: We studied 12 alpine Pinus uncinata treeline ecotones. Rectangular plots ranging from 940 to 1900 m² were placed along the forest‐alpine vegetation transition, from closed forest to the treeless alpine area. To determine community structure and species distribution in the treeline ecotone, species variation along the forest‐alpine vegetation transition was sampled using relevés of 0.5 m² set every 2 m along the length of each plot. Fuzzy C‐means clustering was performed to assess the transitional status of the relevés in terms of species composition. The relation of P. uncinata canopy cover to spatial pattern of vegetation was evaluated using continuous wavelet transform analysis. Results: Vegetation analyses revealed a large degree of uniformity of the subalpine forest between all treeline ecotone areas studied. In contrast, the vegetation mosaic found upslope displayed great variation between sites and was characterized by abrupt changes in plant community across the treeline ecotone. Plant richness and diversity significantly increased across the ecotone, but tree cover and diversity boundaries were not spatially coincident. Conclusions: Our results revealed that no intermediate communities, in terms of species composition, are present in the treeline ecotone. Ecotone vegetation reflected both bedrock type and fine‐scale heterogeneity at ground level, thereby reinforcing the importance of microenvironmental conditions for alpine community composition. Tree cover did not appear to be the principal driver of alpine community changes across the treeline ecotone. Microenvironmental heterogeneity, together with effects of past climatic and land‐use changes on ecotone vegetation, may weaken the expected correlation between species distribution and vegetation structure.     

Recent vegetation changes at the high‐latitude tree line ecotone are controlled by geomorphological disturbance,productivity and diversity

Aim We test how productivity, disturbance rate, plant functional composition and species richness gradients control changes in the composition of high‐latitude vegetation during recent climatic warming. Location Northern Fennoscandia, Europe. Methods We resampled tree line ecotone vegetation sites sampled 26 years earlier. To quantify compositional changes, we used generalized linear models to test relationships between compositional changes and environmental gradients. Results Compositional changes in species abundances are positively related to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)‐based estimate of productivity gradient and to geomorphological disturbance. Competitive species in fertile sites show the greatest changes in abundance, opposed to negligible changes in infertile sites. Change in species richness is negatively related to initial richness, whereas geomorphological disturbance has positive effects on change in richness. Few lowland species have moved towards higher elevations. Main conclusions The sensitivity of vegetation to climate change depends on a complex interplay between productivity, physical and biotic disturbances, plant functional composition and richness. Our results suggest that vegetation on productive sites, such as herb‐rich deciduous forests at low altitudes, is more sensitive to climate warming than alpine tundra vegetation where grazing may have strong buffering effects. Geomorphological disturbance promotes vegetation change under climatic warming, whereas high diversity has a stabilizing effect.     

Microtopographic heterogeneity constrains alpine plant diversity, Glacier National Park, MT

Theoretical and empirical evidence exists for a positive relationship between environmental heterogeneity and species diversity. Alpine plant communities can exhibit exceptional diversity at a fine scale, which niche theory would suggest is the result of fine scale spatial heterogeneity of the environment. To test if species diversity of alpine plants is driven by environmental heterogeneity, we sampled vascular plant species composition, microtopography, and ground cover within 1?m² plots with and without solifluction forms in Glacier National Park, MT. We analyzed the relationship between microtopographic heterogeneity and species richness at the plot and sub-plot scale with linear and quantile regression, respectively. Species richness does not differ between the plots varying in cover type. Species richness is negatively related to the fractal dimension (D) of the ground surface and non-vegetated ground cover within 1?m² plots. At a finer scale, the standard deviation of elevation and slope appear to impose a limit on species richness such that more variable sub-plots have lower species richness. Contrary to our expectations, microtopographic heterogeneity does not promote the diversity of alpine plants. The negative relationship between topographic heterogeneity and species richness is contrary to the theoretical prediction that environmental heterogeneity generally results in greater species diversity. It is possible that microtopographic variability represents a measure of soil disturbance, which would be expected to have a negative effect on species diversity in alpine tundra due to its low productivity.     

A fine-scaled predictive model for changes in species distribution patterns of high mountain plants induced by climate warming

Induced by global warming, mountain plant species are migrating upwards. Species inhabiting the nival zone of today are threatened by competitors which move from the alpine zone towards the summits. The manner in which species move depends on their abilities to cope with microtopographical situations. We present a spatially explicit predictive model which draws scenarios of future species distribution patterns at a typical high mountain of the European Alps. The altitudinal temperature gradient is examined. Based on the lapse rate and on definitions of topographical niches of species, a +1 °C- and a +2 °C-warming scenario are modelled using a fine-scaled digital elevation model. Nival species will lose area and become restricted to specific topographical situations. Alpine and subnival grassland species are predicted to expand their area, mainly along stable surface situations. Whether the migration will take place as a filling or a moving process is specific to the particular species. Overall, biodiversity is apparently not threatened on the decadal scale. In special cases, however, genetic losses are likely both on a local and on a regional scale.     

放牧干扰下高寒草甸物种和生活型丰富度与地上及地下生物量的关系

明晰放牧干扰下高寒草甸植物丰富度与生物量的相关关系,为草地植物不同生长时期生物量的预测提供依据。设置6个放牧强度样地,连续3a放牧,2014年进行3个季节(6月、8月、10月)的植物丰富度和地上、地下生物量调查,对比分析放牧干扰下物种和生活型丰富度(生活型的种类)分别与地上、地下生物量的相关关系。结果表明:(1)物种和生活型丰富度与地上生物量均受放牧强度的显著影响,物种丰富度仅在8月与放牧强度显著负相关,生活型丰富度在10月随放牧强度单峰变化,地上生物量在不同季节均与放牧强度显著负相关,而地下生物量与放牧强度无关。(2)物种丰富度与地上和地下生物量均受季节的显著影响,物种丰富度和地上生物量仅在低强度放牧区随季节呈单峰变化,地下生物量在中等强度放牧区随季节呈单峰变化;生活型丰富度与季节无关。(3)放牧干扰前物种和生活型丰富度与地上和地下生物量均显著正相关。3a放牧后仅在8月,物种丰富度只与地上生物量显著正相关,生活型丰富度与地上和地下生物量均显著正相关。(4)对于不同放牧强度,物种丰富度仅在低强度放牧区与地上生物量显著正相关,而生活型丰富度在所有放牧强度区均与地上生物量显著正相关。综上所述,放牧干扰扰乱了高寒草甸丰富度与生物量之间的关系,尤其影响了物种丰富度与地下生物量之间的相关关系。生活型丰富度与地上生物量之间的显著关系不受放牧强度干扰,使生活型丰富度在预测生物量方面表现出优势。     

Comparative analysis of the floristic richness of alpine communities in the Caucasus and the Central Alps

Abstract. Species richness of selected alpine plant communities in the Teberda Biosphere Reserve (Northwestern Caucasus) and the Davos area (Central Alps) was compared in series of plots from 0.0025 to 100 m². Communities developing under similar ecological conditions and with similar syntaxonomic positions were compared in order to estimate the role of recent environment versus regional historical factors in determining plant community structure and diversity. The floristic richness of the Caucasian and Alpic fens was very similar. The Grasslands and Meadows were quite similar as to floristic richness for plots > 25 cm × 25 cm, but the Caucasian communities had fewer species in smaller plots. The Lichen heath at Teberda was richer than the Caricetum curvulae cetrarietosum for all plot sizes, except the two smallest ones. On the other hand, the plots of the Salix Snowbed community were richer in species than the Caucasian snowbeds for all plot sizes. The Rhododendron Shrubland plots were very similar as to floristic richness in larger plots (4 — 100 m²). Generally, most Alpic communities near Davos were richer in species at small plot sizes than the corresponding communities from Teberda. Caucasian communities were floristically less similar to each other — and thus more discrete — than the Alpic ones. The possible role of different factors controlling floristic richness of the communities is discussed. Our results suggest that recent ecological conditions have a big influence on local floristic diversity and may lead to high similarities between ecologically similar communities from different regions. In addition, the general floristic richness of a regions as well as island effects should be taken into account.     

Uncoupled changes in tree cover and field layer vegetation at two Pyrenean treeline ecotones over 11 years

Background: The alpine treeline ecotone is regarded as a sensor of the effects of global change on alpine plant communities. However, little is known about how treeline dynamics influence the diversity and composition of alpine plant communities. Such information is necessary to forecast how ascending montane forests may affect the composition of alpine flora.

Aims: We analysed the temporal variations in tree cover, plant diversity and composition, and the effect of tree cover dynamics on field layer vegetation over a period of 11 years, at two alpine treeline ecotones in the central Pyrenees, Spain.

Methods: Tree and field layer vegetation was sampled in permanent transects in 1998 and 2009, using the point-intercept method. Temporal changes in tree cover, plant species richness and abundance were characterised along the ecotone by using a randomisation approach, rarefaction curves, and a non-parametric multivariate test, respectively.

Results: Tree cover increased significantly at one of the sites, whereas plant species richness only increased at the other site where tree cover had not changed. Vegetation composition changed significantly at both sites, but it was not spatially coupled with changes in tree cover along the ecotone.

Conclusions: A change of tree cover does not necessarily trigger changes in the ground flora at the treeline over relatively short periods (decade scale). The results challenge our ability to infer short-term biodiversity impacts from upslope advance of forests. Integrated tree and field layer monitoring approaches are necessary to produce a better understanding of the impact of ongoing global change on treeline ecotones.     

Experimental warming causes large and rapid species loss, dampened by simulated grazing, on the Tibetan Plateau

We investigated the independent and combined effects of experimental warming and grazing on plant species diversity on the north‐eastern Tibetan Plateau, a region highly vulnerable to ongoing climate and land use changes. Experimental warming caused a 26–36% decrease in species richness, a response that was generally dampened by experimental grazing. Higher species losses occurred at the drier sites where N was less available. Moreover, we observed an indirect effect of climate change on species richness as mediated by plant–plant interactions. Heat stress and warming‐induced litter accumulation are potential explanations for the species’ responses to experimental warming. This is the first reported experimental evidence that climate warming could cause dramatic declines in plant species diversity in high elevation ecosystems over short time frames and supports model predictions of species losses with anthropogenic climate change.     

Tropical understory herbaceous community responds more strongly to hurricane disturbance than to experimental warming

The effects of climate change on tropical forests may have global consequences due to the forests’ high biodiversity and major role in the global carbon cycle. In this study, we document the effects of experimental warming on the abundance and composition of a tropical forest floor herbaceous plant community in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. This study was conducted within Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) plots, which use infrared heaters under free‐air, open‐field conditions, to warm understory vegetation and soils + 4°C above nearby control plots. Hurricanes Irma and María damaged the heating infrastructure in the second year of warming, therefore, the study included one pretreatment year, one year of warming, and one year of hurricane response with no warming. We measured percent leaf cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, and species richness and diversity within three warmed and three control plots. Results showed that one year of experimental warming did not significantly affect the cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, species richness, or species diversity. In contrast, herbaceous cover increased from 20% to 70%, bare ground decreased from 70% to 6%, and species composition shifted pre to posthurricane. The negligible effects of warming may have been due to the short duration of the warming treatment or an understory that is somewhat resistant to higher temperatures. Our results suggest that climate extremes that are predicted to increase with climate change, such as hurricanes and droughts, may cause more abrupt changes in tropical forest understories than longer‐term sustained warming.     

A plant diversity×water chemistry experiment in subalpine grassland

Plant diversity has been shown to drive important ecosystem functions such as productivity. At the same time, plant diversity and species composition are altered in alpine ecosystems by human impacts such as skiing. Therefore, we investigated impacts of decreased species richness and ski piste treatments on ecosystem functions in subalpine grassland.Species richness manipulations were combined with nutrient input from snow cover treated with snow additives that are commonly used on ski pistes. Three different species richness levels containing 1, 3 or 9 species randomly selected from a larger pool plus unmanipulated meadow plots were treated with four water types to simulate melt water. One water type contained the snow additive ammonium nitrate. Invasion into the communities was prevented by weeding during 2 years and allowed in three subsequent years.Higher species richness increased plant cover and biomass and decreased their variation. The number of functional groups in a plant assemblage had a positive effect on plant growth. Ammonium nitrate strongly increased biomass and plant cover after a single application but decreased species richness in originally diverse meadow plots. There was no significant interaction between species richness and water-type treatments.After the cessation of weeding, the species richness of different plot types converged within 3 years due to invasion. Nevertheless, relationships between initial species richness and plant cover remained positive.The results suggest that the diversity and species composition of alpine vegetation are important factors influencing cover and biomass, in particular during re-colonization of bare ground after disturbances such as ski-piste construction. In slow-growing alpine vegetation, initially positive diversity effects may remain even after successional convergence of species richness due to invasion. The negative effect of ammonium nitrate on species richness suggests the snow additives should only be used with care.     

Upward migration of vascular plants following a climate warming trend in the Alps

The aim of this study was to understand (1) whether warmer climatic conditions affected the vascular plant species composition, (2) the magnitude and rate of altitudinal changes in species distributions, and (3) whether an upward migration of alpine plants is connected to wind dispersal of diaspores. We compared historical records (1954–1958) with results from recent plant surveys (2003–2005) from alpine to nival ecosystems in the Rhaetian Alps, N-Italy. The presence of all vascular plant species and their maximum altitude were recorded along a continuous altitudinal transect of 730 m. An increase in species richness from 153 to 166 species was observed. Moreover, 52 species were recorded from altitudes 30–430 m higher than their 1950s limits, which corresponds to a median migration rate of 23.9 m/decade. In order to explain the observed migrations, the species wind-dispersal ability (diaspore weight and morphology) and the air temperature variation from 1926 to 2003 were considered. Species with more pronounced altitudinal shifts possess lighter diaspores. The highest increase in species richness was found between 2800 and 3100 m a.s.l.; this appears to be related to an estimated shift of the permafrost limit by +240 m during the last 50 years. The mean air temperature in the region rose by +1.6 °C in summer and by +1.1 °C in winter within this period. Climate warming is therefore considered as a primary cause of the observed upward migration of high mountain plants. Calculated altitudinal migration rates, however, varied remarkably among species. This would imply differential abilities of species to persist in an increasingly warmer climate. Species-specific conservation measures, including ex situ conservation, may therefore be required.     

Topographically controlled thermal‐habitat differentiation buffers alpine plant diversity against climate warming

Aim We aim to: (1) explore thermal habitat preferences in alpine plant species across mosaics of topographically controlled micro‐habitats; (2) test the predictive value of so‐called ‘indicator values’; and (3) quantify the shift in micro‐habitat conditions under the influence of climate warming. Location Alpine vegetation 2200–2800 m a.s.l., Swiss central Alps. Methods High‐resolution infra‐red thermometry and large numbers of small data loggers were used to assess the spatial and temporal variation of plant‐surface and ground temperatures as well as snow‐melt patterns for 889 plots distributed across three alpine slopes of contrasting exposure. These environmental data were then correlated with Landolt indicator values for temperature preferences of different plant species and vegetation units. By simulating a uniform 2 K warming we estimated the changes in abundance of micro‐habitat temperatures within the study area. Results Within the study area we observed a substantial variation between micro‐habitats in seasonal mean soil temperature (ΔT = 7.2 K), surface temperature (ΔT = 10.5 K) and season length (>32 days). Plant species with low indicator values for temperature (plants commonly found in cool habitats) grew in significantly colder micro‐habitats than plants with higher indicator values found on the same slope. A 2 K warming will lead to the loss of the coldest habitats (3% of current area), 75% of the current thermal micro‐habitats will be reduced in abundance (crowding effect) and 22% will become more abundant. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate that the topographically induced mosaics of micro‐climatic conditions in an alpine landscape are associated with local plant species distribution. Semi‐quantitative plant species indicator values based on expert knowledge and aggregated to community means match measured thermal habitat conditions. Metre‐scale thermal contrasts significantly exceed IPCC warming projections for the next 100 years. The data presented here thus indicate a great risk of overestimating alpine habitat losses in isotherm‐based model scenarios. While all but the species depending on the very coldest micro‐habitats will find thermally suitable ‘escape’ habitats within short distances, there will be enhanced competition for those cooler places on a given slope in an alpine climate that is 2 K warmer. Yet, due to their topographic variability, alpine landscapes are likely to be safer places for most species than lowland terrain in a warming world.