全球气候变暖胁迫下的雅鲁藏布江流域植被覆盖度变化驱动机制探讨

为了解雅鲁藏布江流域内植被变化对气候变化响应的时空差异性,引入重心模型,分析和探讨了2002-2014年雅鲁藏布江流域植被的变化特点与气候因子的相关性。结果表明,植被的NDVI(归一化植被指数,Normalized difference vegetation index)重心与降水重心年际迁移方向具有正相关性。雅鲁藏布江流域的月植被NDVI受前0-1月降水影响最大,而不同季节植被的NDVI对降水影响表现出一定的滞后性,其中春季和冬季的植被NDVI均与前一季的降水呈现正相关性。该流域中乔木、灌木对降水反应的滞后性比草本植物要大;生长季的温度变化与植被的生长具有相关性。植被NDVI与月均温的正相关性达到最大的时间段差异较大。因此,植被NDVI和气候因子间的时空异质性研究对于雅鲁藏布江流域的生态环境保护具有重要意义。     

青藏高原沼泽湿地植被NDVI时空变化及其对气候变化的响应

基于2000—2017年逐旬MODIS NDVI数据和逐月气温、降水数据,分析了青藏高原不同类型沼泽湿地植被生长季NDVI时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。研究结果表明：青藏高原沼泽植被生长季多年平均NDVI自西北向东南逐渐增加;沼泽植被生长季平均NDVI在2000—2017年总体呈现显著上升趋势 (0.010/10a) ,生长季NDVI呈上升趋势的面积占整个研究区面积的78.25%。青藏高原沼泽植被生长季NDVI与降水量总体上呈现弱的相关性,表明降水并不是影响该地区沼泽植被生长的主要因素。青藏高原沼泽植被生长主要受气温影响,气温升高能明显促进沼泽植被的生长。此外,首次发现白天和夜晚温度升高对青藏高原沼泽植被生长具有不对称性影响,其中夜晚增温对沼泽植被生长的促进效果更加显著。在全球白天和夜晚不对称增温的背景下,白天和夜晚温度对青藏高原沼泽植被的不对称影响应当引起重视,尤其是在利用模型模拟未来气候变化对该地区沼泽植被影响时。     

2000—2019年武夷山亚高山草甸对气候因子的响应及其时滞效应

亚高山草甸对气候变化十分敏感,但目前缺少气候因子对亚热带地区亚高山草甸影响的相关研究,且光学遥感数据对该地区草地信息的提取仍存在一定的挑战。本研究基于MOD13Q1植被指数产品中的归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据集,并结合气象数据,分析2000—2019年间武夷山国家公园黄岗山顶的亚高山草甸的生长变化及其对气候因子的响应和时滞效应。结果表明: 2000—2019年,夏季NDVI呈不显著增加趋势,整个生长季、春季和秋季NDVI均呈极显著增加趋势。NDVI的增加主要受温度增加(0.026 ℃·a^-1)的影响,其中春、秋季温度的增加对草地生长的影响显著高于夏季和整个生长季。生长季NDVI对降水的变化十分敏感,说明即使在降水充沛的亚热带地区,亚高山草甸的生长仍然受到降水的较大影响。不同生长时段温度和降水对草甸NDVI的滞后影响程度不同,温度对亚高山草甸生长的滞后影响为0～1个月,降水对草甸生长的滞后性影响为2～3个月。     

中国嵩草属植物地理分布模式和适应的气候特征

为了明确嵩草属(Kobresia)植物分布与气候要素的关系, 收集了嵩草属植物地理分布资料和气象台站气候数据, 应用ArcGIS软件及SPSS软件中的聚类分析方法, 分析了嵩草属植物地理分布模式和适应的气候特征。结果显示: 嵩草属植物分布在青藏高原、西北、华北和东北部分地区, 广泛分布13种, 间断分布10种, 分布海拔为1 400-5 000 m, 经度和纬度范围分别为81-112° E和23-46° N。嵩草属植物适应的气候要素平均值范围: 年生物学温度为4-19 ℃, 年平均气温为0-20 ℃, 年平均最高气温为7-28 ℃, 年平均最低气温为-6-16 ℃, 极端最高气温为25-40 ℃, 极端最低气温为-37.0-0.0 ℃, 1月和7月平均气温分别为-14-13 ℃和11-24 ℃, 1月和7月最高气温分别为-7-23 ℃和18-30 ℃, 1月和7月最低气温分别为-22-7 ℃和5-20 ℃, 春夏秋冬季气温分别为-4-19 ℃、9-23 ℃、6-21 ℃和-11-15 ℃, 温暖指数为23-159 ℃, 寒冷指数为-36-0 ℃, 年降水量为154-1 500 mm, 春夏秋冬降水量分别为19-135 mm、53-662 mm、48-545 mm和5-92 mm, Holdridge潜在蒸散量为261-1 100 mm, Thornthwaite潜在蒸发量为399-895 mm, 干燥度为167-786, 湿润指数为179-816, 4-10月日照时数为990-2 100 h。在热量要素平均值较低和中等、降水量与干燥湿润度平均值中等或辐射时数平均值较高范围下分布种数较多。嵩草属植物适应的气候要素极值, 年平均气温最小最大值范围为-6-21 ℃, 年平均最低气温最小值最高气温最大值范围为-12-28 ℃, 极端最低气温最小值最高气温最大值范围为-48-42 ℃, 最冷最热月气温范围为-32-33 ℃, 冬夏季最低最高气温范围为-20-25 ℃, 降水量最小最大值范围为15-1 800 mm, 干燥度最小最大值范围为7-890, 日照时数最小最大值范围为701-2 300 h。在热量要素极值较低、降水量及干燥度极值中等或日照时数极值较大范围下分布种数较多。说明嵩草属植物主要适应于低温亚湿润型和中温湿润型气候。     

石羊河流域气候干湿状况分析及评价

分析了河西走廊石羊河流域用水区降水的年际时空分布和演化规律,用潜在蒸散、气候干旱指数、蒸降差计算了不同流域段的水分平衡收支情况。结果表明,20世纪80~90年代降水呈增加趋势,但量较小;春、夏季降水增加,秋、冬季降水减少;潜在蒸散多年平均值为1 026.1 mm,并由上游向下游逐渐增大。20世纪70~90年代潜在蒸散呈增加趋势,平均增加4.1~43.6 mm;季节潜在蒸散大小顺序为夏>春>秋>冬,平均为403.5~521.6 mm;历年气候干旱指数平均为0.002,极值出现在下游的民勤地区,达0.581。20世纪70~90年代,气候干旱指数呈增大趋势,气候变得越来越干燥;年水分亏缺量平均为810.7 mm,表现为水分严重不足。最后,提出了合理利用水资源的建议,以科学应对气候变化,促进流域经济持续发展。     

Modern pollen assemblages as climate indicators in southern Europe

Aim and Location Our aim is to develop pollen–climate inference models for southern Europe and to test their performance and inference power by cross‐validation with modern climate data. Surface sediments collected from lakes along a climate gradient from the winter‐cold/summer‐wet Alps to winter‐wet/summer‐dry Sicily were analysed for modern pollen assemblages. Methods For each lake, mean monthly temperatures, seasonal precipitation and site‐specific climate uncertainties have been estimated. Pollen–climate relationships were studied using numerical analyses, and inference models were derived by partial least squares (PLS) and weighted‐averaging PLS (WA‐PLS) regressions for January and July temperatures (T), and for winter, spring and summer precipitation (P). In order to assess whether these variables are also of ecological importance for vegetation in the subregions, we split the data set into an Alpine and a Mediterranean subset. Results Low bootstrap cross‐validated root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) for January T (1.7 °C), July T (2.1 °C) and summer P (38 mm), as well as low RMSEPs expressed as a percentage of the gradient length (8–9%), indicate a good inference power. Models revealed excellent to good performance statistics for January T, July T and summer P (r²= 0.8), and for winter and spring P (r²=c. 0.5). We show that the variables with the highest explanatory power differ between the two subregions. These are summer T and P for the Alpine set, and January T, winter P and July T for the Mediterranean set. Main conclusions The study reveals the influence of climatic conditions during the growing season on modern pollen assemblages and indicates the potential of pollen data for long‐term climate reconstructions of parameters such as winter precipitation and temperature, which seem to be the main factors having an influence on the variability of Mediterranean climate. These models may therefore provide important information on past regional climate variability in southern Europe.     

Environmental Predictors of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics across Temperate and Tropical Climates

Human influenza infections exhibit a strong seasonal cycle in temperate regions. Recent laboratory and epidemiological evidence suggests that low specific humidity conditions facilitate the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus in temperate regions, resulting in annual winter epidemics. However, this relationship is unlikely to account for the epidemiology of influenza in tropical and subtropical regions where epidemics often occur during the rainy season or transmit year-round without a well-defined season. We assessed the role of specific humidity and other local climatic variables on influenza virus seasonality by modeling epidemiological and climatic information from 78 study sites sampled globally. We substantiated that there are two types of environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: “cold-dry” and “humid-rainy”. For sites where monthly average specific humidity or temperature decreases below thresholds of approximately 11–12 g/kg and 18–21°C during the year, influenza activity peaks during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter) when specific humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. For sites where specific humidity and temperature do not decrease below these thresholds, seasonal influenza activity is more likely to peak in months when average precipitation totals are maximal and greater than 150 mm per month. These findings provide a simple climate-based model rooted in empirical data that accounts for the diversity of seasonal influenza patterns observed across temperate, subtropical and tropical climates.     

亚洲季风区铁杉属现代分布区及其气候特征

铁杉属在亚洲主要分布于亚洲季风区东部,间断分布于中国大陆、台湾岛以及日本列岛（除北海道）。在中国大陆间断分布在西南山区（横断山区和部分东喜马拉雅）、中部山区（秦岭-大巴山区）和东南山区（华东山地）。亚洲季风区铁杉属的现代分布环境要求年降水量范围为720～2103mm,生长季降水量为635～1489mm;年均温范围为5．8～18．2℃,冬季月均温为-2．7～11．5℃,年最冷月均温为-3．7-10．9℃,年最暖月均温为13．0—28．2℃,气温年较差为9．7～25．4℃。亚洲季风区铁杉属的现代地理分布与气候要素值相互关系的分析表明,无铁杉分布的朝鲜半岛及其邻近的我国东北山地和山东山地降水量均大于700mm,基本上能够满足铁杉属生长的水分条件;而朝鲜半岛及其邻近的我国东北山地和山东山地的气温年较差明显大于铁杉属分布区的值,同时两地的冬季月均温和年最冷月均温明显低于铁杉属分布区的值,这也是这些地区没有铁杉属分布的主要气候原因。总之,这些亚洲季风区水分条件能够满足铁杉属生长需要,但冬季温度（包括冬季月平均温度和年最冷月均温）和气温年较差无法满足铁杉属生长需要,导致这些地区无铁杉属现代分布记录。     

Late Pliocene vegetation and climate of Zhangcun region,Shanxi, North China

To understand the Neogene climatic changes in eastern Asia and evaluate the intercontinental climatic differences, we have quantitatively reconstructed the vegetation successions and climatic changes in the late Pliocene Zhangcun area based on the palynological data and explored the regional climatic differences between central Europe and eastern Asia. The late Pliocene palynological assemblage of Zhangcun, Shanxi was composed of 63 palynomorphs, belonging to 50 families, covering angiosperms (90.2%), gymnosperms (9.7%), ferns (0.09%), and other elements (0.02%). Four periods of vegetation succession over time were recognized. In period 1, a needle‐ and broad‐leaved mixed forest prevailed with a cool and dry climate. Period 2 was characterized by an expansion of forest with a warmer and wetter climate. The number of conifers increased and that of herbs decreased in period 3, and the climate became cool and dry. In period 4, the forest was dominated by conifers and reflecting a cooler climate. The data of seven climatic parameters in general and four periods estimated by the Coexistence Approach suggested that (1) The late Pliocene temperatures and precipitations were higher than today. (2) The Neogene climate of both Central Europe and North China exhibited a general cooling and drying trend although the mean annual temperature dropped by ca. 1 °C in North China, vs. ca. 7 °C in Central Europe from the middle Miocene to the late Pliocene. (3) The decline of the mean maximum monthly precipitation might signal a weakening of the summer monsoon. (4) The decline of both the mean coldest monthly temperature and the mean minimum monthly precipitation might be linked to the strengthening of the winter monsoon in eastern Asia. (5) The rapid uplift of the Tibetan Plateau strengthened the climatic cooling and drying during the late Pliocene of the Zhangcun region.     

Evidence of a Cooler Continental Climate in East China during the Warm Early Cenozoic

The early Cenozoic was characterized by a very warm climate especially during the Early Eocene. To understand climatic changes in eastern Asia, we reconstructed the Early Eocene vegetation and climate based on palynological data of a borehole from Wutu coal mine, East China and evaluated the climatic differences between eastern Asia and Central Europe. The Wutu palynological assemblages indicated a warm temperate vegetation succession comprising mixed needle- and broad-leaved forests. Three periods of vegetation succession over time were recognized. The changes of palynomorph relative abundance indicated that period 1 was warm and humid, period 2 was relatively warmer and wetter, and period 3 was cooler and drier again. The climatic parameters estimated by the coexistence approach (CA) suggested that the Early Eocene climate in Wutu was warmer and wetter. Mean annual temperature (MAT) was approximately 16°C and mean annual precipitation (MAP) was 800–1400 mm. Comparison of the Early Eocene climatic parameters of Wutu with those of 39 other fossil floras of different age in East China, reveals that 1) the climate became gradually cooler during the last 65 million years, with MAT dropping by 9.3°C. This cooling trend coincided with the ocean temperature changes but with weaker amplitude; 2) the Early Eocene climate was cooler in East China than in Central Europe; 3) the cooling trend in East China (MAT dropped by 6.9°C) was gentler than in Central Europe (MAT dropped by 13°C) during the last 45 million years.     

辽宁省植被生长季NDVI对气候因子的响应

基于2000-2010年辽宁省内的37个气象站及周边5个气象站的基础数据, 结合MODIS NDVI的遥感影像资料, 运用趋势分析、相关分析和空间分析等方法研究植被生长与气候的关系, 探讨不同气候因子对植被生长的影响与主导作用。结果表明: (1) 辽宁省植被在研究时段内的7-8月生长最为旺盛, 生长季植被NDVI呈显著升高趋势, 2007年后维持在0.73- 0.74之间; (2) 在研究时段内, 整个生长季植被NDVI与降水量和日照时数主要呈正相关, 与气温主要呈负相关, 且在6-8月相关性较为显著, 植被生长对气温的变化最敏感, 对日照的响应最缓慢; (3) 5月辽宁省东部植被生长的主要气候影响因子为气温和日照, 西部为降水, 6-8月东部植被主要气候影响因子则转为降水和日照, 9月再度转为气温和日照; (4) 气温和日照对植被影响的滞后时间由东北向西南逐渐延长, 降水则与之相反。     

念青唐古拉山南坡高寒草甸生产力对温度和降水变化的敏感性及其海拔分异

目前人们仍不清楚不同海拔高寒草地植被生长对气候变化的敏感性差异及其与最适宜海拔分布中心的关系。利用西藏当雄县念青唐古拉山南坡7个海拔梯度固定样地的高山嵩草草甸地上净初级生产力(ANPP)观测数据(2009—2013),建立了ANPP与同期遥感植被指数(MODIS NDVI)的线性回归方程。基于长时间序列的NDVI数据,利用建立的回归方程估算了研究区2000—2013年的ANPP。结合沿海拔梯度的HOBO气象站数据(2006—2013)及当雄县气象站数据(2000—2013),分析了2000—2013年该地区高寒草甸ANPP对降水和温度变化的敏感性及其随海拔的变化规律。结果表明:(1)多年平均ANPP随海拔的变化均表现为先增加后降低的单峰分布格局,最大值出现在海拔4893—4942 m,说明在海拔梯度上存在一个最适宜高寒草甸植被生长的分布中心;(2)ANPP与生长季降水量(GSP)呈正相关关系,与生长季平均气温(GST)呈负相关关系,其相关斜率的绝对值(指示ANPP的降水敏感性和温度敏感性大小)与ANPP的海拔格局具有相反的变化趋势,即在最适宜高寒草甸植被生长的海拔分布中心附近,ANPP对降水和温度变化的敏感性最低,而在远离该分布中心的较高和较低海拔,ANPP对降水和温度变化的敏感性则相对较大。研究明确了高寒草甸ANPP对降水和温度变化的敏感性随海拔的分异性及其与高寒草甸最适宜海拔分布中心的关系,这有助于理解沿海拔梯度不同水热组合环境下高寒生态系统对未来气候变化的响应模式。     

Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. VII. Change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in arid and semi-arid region of Tibet Plateau

Based on the 1961-2007 ground observation data from 55 meteorological stations in arid and semi-arid region of Tibetan Plateau, and by using 5-day moving average method and ArcGIS-IDW module, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics and climatic trend rates of agricultural climate resources in the region in 1961-1980 (period I) and 1981-2007 (period II). In 1961-2007, the sunshine duration during the growth season of chimonophilous crops in the study region changed less, while that during the growth season of thermophilic crops increased but with little spatial change. Comparing with those in period I, the average value of accumulated temperature in period II showed an increasing trend, and the area with > or = 1500 degrees C x d during the growth season of thermophilic crops increased by 33.9%. The precipitation decreased gradually from southeast to northwest. During the growth season of chimonophilous crops, the precipitation in the southeast in the two periods reached 800 mm, but the climatic trend in other areas was positive or negative, and the change rate was small. The area with precipitation > or = 400 mm during the growth season of thermophilic crops in period II expanded by 40%, as compared in period I. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) generally increased slightly, and shared the similar spatial distribution pattern with sunshine duration and accumulated temperature. During the growth season of thermophilic crops, the area with ET0 > or = 400 mm in period II expanded by 35.7%, compared with that in period I. In the study period, the heat and precipitation resources during crop growth seasons in Tibet Plateau increased in a certain degree, which was very beneficial to the agriculture-stock production. However, the increase of reference crop evapotranspitation indicated the increase of potential evaporation. Thereby, the researches about the possible effects of climate change on agriculture-stock production should be further strengthened.     

Patterns of Cross-Continental Variation in Tree Seed Mass in the Canadian Boreal Forest

Seed mass is an adaptive trait affecting species distribution, population dynamics and community structure. In widely distributed species, variation in seed mass may reflect both genetic adaptation to local environments and adaptive phenotypic plasticity. Acknowledging the difficulty in separating these two aspects, we examined the causal relationships determining seed mass variation to better understand adaptability and/or plasticity of selected tree species to spatial/climatic variation. A total of 504, 481 and 454 seed collections of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb) across the Canadian Boreal Forest, respectively, were selected. Correlation analyses were used to determine how seed mass vary with latitude, longitude, and altitude. Structural Equation Modeling was used to examine how geographic and climatic variables influence seed mass. Climatic factors explained a large portion of the variation in seed mass (34, 14 and 29%, for black spruce, white spruce and jack pine, respectively), indicating species-specific adaptation to long term climate conditions. Higher annual mean temperature and winter precipitation caused greater seed mass in black spruce, but annual precipitation was the controlling factor for white spruce. The combination of factors such as growing season temperature and evapotranspiration, temperature seasonality and annual precipitation together determined seed mass of jack pine. Overall, sites with higher winter temperatures were correlated with larger seeds. Thus, long-term climatic conditions, at least in part, determined spatial variation in seed mass. Black spruce and Jack pine, species with relatively more specific habitat requirements and less plasticity, had more variation in seed mass explained by climate than did the more plastic species white spruce. As traits such as seed mass are related to seedling growth and survival, they potentially influence forest species composition in a changing climate and should be included in future modeling of vegetation shifts.     

Influence of climate on tree-ring and earlywood vessel formation in Quercus robur in Latvia

We studied the effects of climatic factors on tree-ring width and vessel lumen area (VLA) in earlywood of English oak (Quercus robur L.) in Latvia. Cores were obtained from healthy canopy oaks in 40 stands located across Latvia. Tree-ring widths and VLA were measured. Principal component analysis was used to arrange the sites along gradients of response of tree-ring width and earlywood to environmental factors. Significant relationships of tree-ring width and mean VLA with climatic factors (mean monthly temperature and precipitation sum) were determined by correlation analysis. Relationships between tree-ring, early- and latewood widths were tested in three sampled stands. The patterns of response of VLA and tree-ring width to environmental factors differed in relation to a west–east gradient of increasing continentality. Three regions of Latvia (western, central and eastern) were distinguished along this gradient. Responses to climate differed between tree-ring width and mean VLA. Occurrence of significant correlations between climatic factors and the proxies differed between regions, likely due to regional differences in temperature and precipitation. Tree-ring width correlated with climatic factors (most commonly with March, May and June temperature and August precipitation of the current growing season and July–August temperatures of the previous growing season); VLA was more strongly related to climatic factors, particularly with temperature in winter and spring months. The proportion of significant correlation coefficients with climatic factors differed between the regions. Among sites, significant correlation of tree-ring width with temperature in spring and summer was more frequent in the western region, while correlation with winter temperature of the previous growing season and precipitation in August was more frequent in the eastern region. For VLA, the frequency of significant correlation coefficients with temperature in winter and spring was higher in the eastern region.     

The climate,the fuel and the land use: Long‐term regional variability of biomass burning in boreal forests

The influence of different drivers on changes in North American and European boreal forests biomass burning (BB) during the Holocene was investigated based on the following hypotheses: land use was important only in the southernmost regions, while elsewhere climate was the main driver modulated by changes in fuel type. BB was reconstructed by means of 88 sedimentary charcoal records divided into six different site clusters. A statistical approach was used to explore the relative contribution of (a) pollen‐based mean July/summer temperature and mean annual precipitation reconstructions, (b) an independent model‐based scenario of past land use (LU), and (c) pollen‐based reconstructions of plant functional types (PFTs) on BB. Our hypotheses were tested with: (a) a west‐east northern boreal sector with changing climatic conditions and a homogeneous vegetation, and (b) a north‐south European boreal sector characterized by gradual variation in both climate and vegetation composition. The processes driving BB in boreal forests varied from one region to another during the Holocene. However, general trends in boreal biomass burning were primarily controlled by changes in climate (mean annual precipitation in Alaska, northern Quebec, and northern Fennoscandia, and mean July/summer temperature in central Canada and central Fennoscandia) and, secondarily, by fuel composition (BB positively correlated with the presence of boreal needleleaf evergreen trees in Alaska and in central and southern Fennoscandia). Land use played only a marginal role. A modification towards less flammable tree species (by promoting deciduous stands over fire‐prone conifers) could contribute to reduce circumboreal wildfire risk in future warmer periods.     

Does climate determine broad‐scale patterns of species richness? A test of the causal link by natural experiment

Aim Broad‐scale spatial patterns of species richness are very strongly correlated with climatic variables. If there is a causal link, i.e. if climate directly or indirectly determines patterns of richness, then when the climatic variables change, richness should change in the manner that spatial correlations between richness and climate would predict. The present study tests this prediction using seasonal changes in climatic variables and bird richness. Location We used a grid of equal area quadrats (37 000 km²) covering North and Central America as far south as Nicaragua. Methods Summer and winter bird distribution data were drawn from monographs and field guides. Climatic data came from published sources. We also used remotely sensed NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index — a measure of greenness). Results Bird species richness changes temporally (between summer and winter) in a manner that is close to, but statistically distinguishable from, the change one would predict from models relating the spatial variation in richness at a single time to climatic variables. If one further takes into account the seasonal changes in NDVI and within‐season variability of temperature and precipitation, then winter and summer richness follow congruent, statistically indistinguishable patterns. Main conclusions Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) and vegetation cover directly or indirectly influence patterns of bird species richness.     

Vegetation dynamics and responses to recent climate change in Xinjiang using leaf area index as an indicator

There is a strong signal showing that the climate in Xinjiang, China has changed from warm-dry to warm-wet since the early 1980s, leading to an increase in vegetation cover. Based on a regression analysis and Hurst index method, this study investigated the spatial–temporal characteristics and interrelationships of the vegetation dynamics and climate variability in Xinjiang Province using the leaf area index (LAI) and a gridded meteorological dataset for the period 1982–2012. Further analysis focused on the discrimination between climatic change and human-induced effects on the vegetation dynamics, and several conclusions were drawn. (1) Vegetation dynamics differ in mountain and plains regions, with a significant increasing trend of vegetation cover in oases and decreasing trend of vegetation growth in the Tienshan and Altay Mountain. The Hurst exponent results indicated that the vegetation dynamic trend was consistent, with a sustainable area percentage of 51.18%, unsustainable area percentage of 4.04%, and stable and non-vegetated area ratio of 44.78%. (2) The warm-dry to warm-wet climatic pattern in Xinjiang Province since the 1980s mainly appeared in the western part of the Tienshan region and North Xinjiang. Temperatures increased in all seasons over the majority of Xinjiang, and precipitation showed a significant increasing trend in the mountainous regions in spring, summer and autumn, whereas the rate of precipitation change was higher in the plains region in winter compared with that in other seasons. (3) A correlation occurs between the climate variables (precipitation and temperature) and mean LAI, and this correlation varies at the seasonal and regional scales, with coniferous forest, meadow and grassland more correlated with precipitation in spring and summer and not correlated with temperature, which indicated that precipitation was the dominant factor affecting the growth of mountain vegetation. The mean LAI of vegetation in the plains exhibited significant correlation with precipitation in winter and temperature in spring and summer. (4) A residual analysis showed a human-induced change that was superimposed on the climate trend and exhibited two effects: vegetation regeneration in oases throughout Xinjiang and desertification in the meadow located in the mountainous area of the western Tienshan Mountains and Altay Mountains. (5) Grassland is the most sensitive vegetation type to short-term climatic fluctuations and is the land-use type that has been most severely degraded by human activity; thus, local governments should take full advantage of this climatic warm-wet shift and focus on protecting vegetation to improve this fragile arid environment.     

Monsoon versus uplift in southwestern China--Late Pliocene climate in Yuanmou Basin, Yunnan

Yuanmou Basin of Yunnan, SW China, is a famous locality with hominids, hominoids, mammals and plant fossils. Based on the published megaflora and palynoflora data from Yuanmou Basin, the climate of Late Pliocene is reconstructed using the Coexistence Approach. The results indicate a warm and humid subtropical climate with a mean annual temperature of ca. 16-17°C and a mean annual precipitation of ca. 1500-1600 mm in the Late Pliocene rather than a dry, hot climate today, which may be due to the local tectonic change and gradual intensification of India monsoon. The comparison of Late Pliocene climate in Eryuan, Yangyi, Longling, and Yuanmou Basin of Yunnan Province suggests that the mean annual temperatures generally show a latitudinal gradient and fit well with their geographic position, while the mean annual precipitations seem to be related to the different geometries of the valleys under the same monsoon system.     

内蒙古草原区植被净初级生产力及其与气候的关系

利用NOAA/AVHRR GIMMSNDVI数据、土地覆盖分类数据、气象数据等,基于改进的基于光能利用率的净初级生产力(Net Primary productivity,NPP)遥感估算模型对内蒙古草原区1982-2006年的NPP进行估算,并分别以年、季节和月为时间单位,计算基于像元的NPP与降水、温度之间的相关及偏相关系数,分析不同时间单位及尺度上NPP与气候的关系。结果表明,1982-2006年内蒙古草原区NPP总量呈波动增加的趋势,平均增加值为0.861Mt C/a。以年为时间单位,内蒙古草原区年NPP与降水的关系比较明显。以季节为时间单位,年际春季和夏季NPP与降水的关系比较明显,秋季二者关系相对较弱,春季和秋季NPP与温度的相关系数和偏相关系数空间格局比较一致,且相关性明显高于夏季。以月为时间单位的相关水平明显高于年际水平,多年平均年内月NPP与降水、温度的相关程度明显增强,除去降水的影响,月均温对NPP的影响明显下降,且空间格局也有明显的变化,说明以月为时间单位在年内尺度上降水对植被生长的影响比温度要大。而以4、7、10月份为例,在年际尺度上,虽然各月份NPP均受降水的影响较大,但与降水关系最为密切的是4月份和10月份NPP,与之相比,7月份NPP与温度的关系明显高于其他两月。