Environmental and geographical constraints on common swift and barn swallow spring arrival patterns throughout the Iberian Peninsula

Aim Still poorly understood, the main migratory pathways for most trans‐Saharan species pass through the Iberian Peninsula, which acts as a gateway to the European–African migratory system. Arrival patterns in this region for the common swift (Apus apus) and barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), of similar morphology and flight capabilities, were described, and the environmental and geographical factors best explaining them were examined, in a search for common ecological constraints on these two migratory species. Location Latitude ranged from 36.02 to 43.68°N, longitude from 9.05°W to 3.17°E, and altitude from 0 to 1595 m a.s.l. for 482 common swift and 812 barn swallow Spanish localities spread widely over the Iberian breeding grounds of the two species. Methods Our data set, covering the years 1960–1990, consisted of 3206 first‐arrival dates for common swifts and 6036 for barn swallows. Forty topographical, climatic, river basin, geographical and spatial variables were used as explanatory variables in general regression models (GRMs). GRMs included polynomial terms up to cubic functions in all variables when they were significant. A backward stepwise selection procedure was applied in all models until only significant terms remained. GRMs were applied in two steps. First, we searched for the best model in each one of the five types of variables (topographical, climatic, river basin, geographical and spatial). To cope with the unavoidable correlation between explanatory variables, the relative importance of each type of variable was assessed by hierarchical variance partitioning. Secondly, we searched for that model able to explain the maximum amount of the observed variability in arrival date. To obtain this model all significant explanatory variables were subjected jointly to a GRM. Spatial variables were then added to this model to take any remaining spatial structure in the data into account. Moran's I autocorrelation coefficient was used to check for spatial autocorrelation. Results Both species arrived earlier in the south‐western Iberian Peninsula, where summers are warmer and drier. From there, both species followed the main southern Iberian river basins towards the north‐east; however, several mountainous regions impede the colonization of eastern Iberia. The best models for each type of variable explained 19–47% of the variability in common swift arrival dates and 14–44% in barn swallow arrival dates. Variance partitioning indicated that climatic and geographical variables best explained variability. The best predictive models built with all variables accounted for 52% of the variability in common swift arrival dates and 50% for the barn swallow. Residuals from both models were not spatially autocorrelated, an indication that all major spatially structured variation had been accounted for. Main conclusions Spring arrival patterns are highly dependent on the geographical configuration of the Iberian Peninsula. This spatial constraint forces both species to converge very closely in their spring migration, because common swifts and barn swallows are subject to a trade‐off between optimum migratory pathways and territories ecologically suitable for breeding.     

Can we detect change in the phenology of winter migrant birds in the UK?

Although there is very strong evidence for an advance in the spring arrival dates of migrating birds, there are few data with which to examine the changes, if any, in the dates of winter migration. In this paper we examine data on the first arrivals and last departures of winter visitors from two UK county bird reports. A small number of changes in phenology and some relationships with climatic variables were present. However, results were often contradictory or inconclusive. As data such as these are highly variable we recommend a more thorough examination for climatic impact where records exist.     

How consistent are trends in arrival (and departure) dates of migrant birds in the UK?

We examine the first arrival and last departure dates of migrant bird species from, respectively, six and three English area bird reports. Of all 145 bird series, 50% demonstrated significantly earlier arrival in recent years, with the average advance over all species being 0.25 days/year or 12 days earlier over 50 years. Thirty percent of 67 series demonstrated significantly later departure, with the average species delay being 0.16 days/year or eight days later over 50 years. There was greater consistency between species in trends in first arrival than in last departure, with species such as sand martin Riparia riparia significantly earlier at all six sites while, for example, spotted flycatcher Muscicapa striata showed no significant change in arrival at all sites. Significant negative correlations between arrival dates and English temperatures were found for 26% of all series, but temperature effects on departures were less clear. We provide some evidence that trends in arrival dates may be masked by population declines in birds. Since migrant bird populations are in decline generally, this may suggest that the real advance in arrival dates may be greater than that reported here.     

The effects of climate change on the phenology of winter birds in Yokohama, Japan

Observations made largely from summer breeding sites in Europe and North America have been used to document the effects of climate change on many bird species. We extend these studies by examining 23 years of observations between 1986 and 2008 of six winter bird species made by citizens at a city park in Yokohama, Japan. Bird species arrive in autumn and spend the winter in the area, before departing in the late winter or spring. On average, birds species are arriving 9 days later than in the past and are departing on average 21 days earlier, meaning that the average duration of their stay in Yokohama is about 1 month shorter now than in the past. Patterns of changes over time varied among species, but departure dates changed for more species than did arrival dates. Dates of departure and arrival were sometimes correlated with monthly average temperatures—later arrivals and earlier departures were associated with warmer temperatures. In addition, interannual variation in arrival and departure dates were strongly correlated across species, suggesting that species were responding to the same or similar environmental cues. This study provides a clear demonstration of the value of using citizens to make observations that contribute to research in climate change biology.     

Climate change and bird phenology: a long-term study in the Iberian Peninsula

Many studies in recent years have demonstrated long‐term temporal trends in biological parameters that can only be explained by climate change. Bird phenology has received great attention, as it studies one of the most conspicuous, popular, and easily observable phenomena in nature. There are many studies of long‐term changes in spring arrival dates, most of which concur with earlier records from the last few decades. However, few data are available for autumn departures or length of stays. Furthermore, existing data offer an equivocal picture. In this study, we analysed a huge database of about 44 000 records for five trans‐Saharan bird species (Ciconia ciconia, Cuculus canorus, Apus apus, Hirundo rustica and Luscinia megarhynchos). Data were collected from over 1300 sites around Spain during the period 1944–2004. Common spring arrival patterns were found in all species. Spring arrival dates have tended to advance since the mid‐1970s. Current dates are similar to those from the 1940s (except for C. ciconia). Thus, the advance of spring migration over the last three decades could be seen as a return to the initial timing of arrival dates, after abnormally delayed arrivals during the 1970s. A strong negative relationship with temperature in Spain at arrival time was observed in all species. A negative relationship with the Sahel Index (a measurement of precipitation in the African Sahel area during the rainy season) for the previous year was also found in C. canorus, A. apus and H. rustica. Regarding autumn departures, all species showed common interdecadal fluctuations, but only H. rustica is leaving earlier Spain at present. All species departed earlier in years that had higher temperatures during their reproductive period. However, only for H. rustica the relation between Spanish temperatures at departure time and the last sightings of individuals was significant. A heterogeneous temporal response for the length of stay was also found: C. ciconia increased, A. apus did not change and H. rustica decreased its stay. This is the first study, based on an extensive bird phenology observational network covering a large region, that shows the most complete and thorough analysis available for the Mediterranean region.     

Migration and winter distribution of Iberian and central European black storks Ciconia nigra moving to Africa across the Strait of Gibraltar: a comparative study

This paper compares the migratory movements of Iberian and central European satellite‐tagged black storks Ciconia nigra moving to Africa across the Strait of Gibraltar. Results show that the populations differ in departure dates from breeding areas (central European birds start to move 15 d before Iberian birds), cross the Strait of Gibraltar together and reach the Sahel on similar dates. This synchronic arrival to the Sahel may be related with the onset of suitable conditions for the species after summer rains, when many pools are available for fishing. In this area, Iberian birds occupied westernmost localities compared to central European birds crossing the Strait of Gibraltar, which were distributed closer to those storks arriving in Africa across the Bosporus. This suggests that the parallel distribution of breeding and wintering areas results from posterior rearrangements of the two populations crossing Gibraltar. These patterns appear to be linked to the increasing population of central European black storks located on the western side of the migratory divide that moves throughout the western flyway to sectors of the Sahel close to their ancestral wintering grounds.     

Temporal trends in phenology of the honey bee Apis mellifera (L.) and the small white Pieris rapae (L.) in the Iberian Peninsula (1952–2004)

Abstract.  1. The first adult appearance of two insect species, the honey bee Apis mellifera (L.) and the small white Pieris rapae (L.), was examined between 1952 and 2004 in Spain.
2. After factoring out the variability resulting from the broad geographical and topographical range of the 798 sampling localities, multiple regression models were used to detect temporal trends in phenology.
3. The best models were repeated, including spring temperature as the explanatory variable to examine the effects of climate on appearance phenology.
4. Both species showed similar temporal trends, delaying their appearance phenology until the mid-1970s and advancing it since that time.
5. The appearance times for both species were negatively related to mean temperature between February and April, with both species appearing earlier in years with warmer springs.
6. The strong dependence of appearance dates on temperature indicates that climatic fluctuations are primarily responsible for the inter-annual variability in spring appearance phenology of both species, and consequently account for the observed long-term trends.
7. This study demonstrates that insect phenology is an accurate and sensitive bioindicator of climate change.     

Phenology and climate change: a long-term study in a Mediterranean locality

It is well documented that plant and animal phenology is changing in response to recent climate warming in the Palaearctic. However, few long-term data sets are currently available in the Mediterranean basin. The present study reports long-term temporal trends of several phenophases of 45 plants, 4 insects and 6 migratory insectivorous birds. Dynamic factor analyses performed with plant phenophases showed that most of those events occurring at spring and summer had common trends toward the advancement, especially since mid-1970s. However, during these last decades, insect phenology showed a steeper advance than plant phenology, suggesting an increase of decoupling of some plant–insect interactions, such as those between pollinators and flowers or herbivorous insects and their plant resources. All trans-Saharan bird species showed highly significant temporal trends in all studied phenophases (some of them covering most of the last century). In two species, the duration of stay is increasing due to both earlier arrivals and later departures. On the other hand, two wintering species showed a significant advancement in their arrival dates, while an opposite pattern were found for departures of each one. Only one of these species increased significantly its wintering stay. Bird departures were not related to local climate in any species. Our results demonstrate a key role of local temperatures behind interannual variability of most plant and insects phenophases, with especial emphasis in those occurring in spring and summer. Therefore, the common signal towards the advancement recorded since mid-1970s resulted from the recent rise in temperatures.     

Weekend bias in Citizen Science data reporting: implications for phenology studies

Studies of bird phenology can help elucidate the effects of climate change on wildlife species but observations over broad spatial scales are difficult without a network of observers. Recently, networks of citizen volunteers have begun to report first arrival dates for many migratory species. Potential benefits are substantial (e.g., understanding ecological processes at broad spatial and temporal scales) if known biases of citizen data reporting are identified and addressed. One potential source of bias in bird phenology studies is the tendency for more “first” migratory arrivals to be reported on weekends than on weekdays. We investigated weekend bias in data reporting for five common bird species in North America (Baltimore Oriole, Icterus galbula; Barn Swallow, Hirundo rustica; Chimney Swift, Chaetura pelagica; Purple Martin, Progne subis; and Ruby-throated Hummingbird, Archilochus colubris), and assessed whether this bias affected mean arrival dates reported using data from historical (1880–1969; N?=?25,555) and recent (1997–2010; N?=?63,149) Citizen Science databases. We found a greater percentage of first arrivals reported on weekends and small but significant differences in mean arrival dates (approximately 0.5 days) for four of five species. Comparing time periods, this weekend bias decreased from 33.7 % and five species in the historical time period to 32 % and three species in the recent, perhaps related to changes in human activity patterns. Our results indicate that weekend bias in citizen data reporting is decreasing over time in North America and including a ‘day of week’ term in models examining changes in phenology could help make conclusions more robust.     

Sex-differentiated migration patterns, protandry and phenology in North European songbird populations

This study aims to investigate causes and mechanisms controlling protandrous migration patterns (the earlier breeding area arrival of males relative to females) and inter-sexual differences in timing of migration in relation to the recent climate-driven changes in phenology. Using standardised ringing data from a single site for eight North European migratory passerines collected throughout 22 years, we analysed sex-differentiated migration patterns, protandry and phenology of the entire populations. Our results show protandrous patterns for the first as well as later arriving individuals for all studied species. Males show more synchronous migration patterns compared to females and, hence, first arriving females followed males more closely than later arriving individuals. However, we found no inter-sexual differences in arrival trends as both sexes advance spring arrival over time with the largest change for the first arriving individuals. These findings seem in support of the “mate opportunity” hypothesis, as the arrival of males and females is strongly coupled and both sexes seem to compete for early arrival. Changes in timing of arrival in males and females as a response to climatic changes may influence subsequent mating decisions, with subsequent feedbacks on population dynamics such as reproductive success and individual fitness. However, during decades of consistent earlier spring arrival in all phases of migration we found no evidence of inter-sexual phenological differences.     

Temperature‐related increases in grass growth and greater competition for food drive earlier migrational departure of wintering Whooper Swans

Understanding the departure decisions of migratory birds is critical for determining how changing climatic conditions will influence subsequent arrival times on the breeding grounds. A long‐term dataset (1972–2008) of Whooper Swan Cygnus cygnus departure dates from a wintering site in Ireland was used to assess the factors determining the timing of migration. Early and late migrating swans showed different departure patterns. Earlier wintering ground departure was more pronounced for the first 50% of the population than the last 10% of departing individuals. Earlier departure was associated with an increase in February temperatures at the wintering site for all departure phases except the date when the last individual departed. The date by which the first 50% of Swans had departed was earlier with increasing numbers of wintering Swans, suggesting that competition on the wintering grounds may further influence the timing of departure. The results also suggested that departure is mediated by the influence of spring temperature on food resources, with increased February grass growth in warmer years enabling earlier departure of migrating Swans. To determine why arrival dates in the breeding ground have altered, environmental conditions in the wintering grounds must be taken into account.     

Long-term trends in the arrival dates of spring migrants

Data on the spring arrival dates of 23 species of migrants in Leicestershire over a 50-year period are presented. Chiffchaff, Sand Martin, Blackcap and Sedge Warbler showed a significant trend towards earlier arrival over the period, while Tree Pipit, Cuckoo, Whinchat, Whitethroat and Garden Warbler showed a significant trend towards later arrival. Fifteen species arrived noticeably earlier in the 1940s, a period of warm springs, while several species showed earlier arrivals in the 1980s. A number of species showed later arrival dates in the 1960s and 1970s, when April temperatures were colder than average. Several species showed significant correlations between arrival date and temperature. Arrival dates of the earliest species were much more variable than those arriving later, while species arriving in the second half of April showed a generally synchronous arrival. The results are discussed in the context of global warming.     

Long‐term changes in the migration phenology of UK breeding birds detected by large‐scale citizen science recording schemes

The timing of migration is one of the key life‐history parameters of migratory birds. It is expected to be under strong selection, to be sensitive to changing environmental conditions and to have implications for population dynamics. However, most phenological studies do not describe arrival and departure phenologies for a species in a way that is robust to potential biases, or that can be clearly related to breeding populations. This hampers our ability to understand more fully how climate change may affect species’ migratory strategies, their life histories and ultimately their population dynamics. Using generalized additive models (GAMs) and extensive large‐scale data collected in the UK over a 40‐year period, we present standardized measures of migration phenology for common migratory birds, and examine how the phenology of bird migration has changed in the UK since the 1960s. Arrival dates for 11 of 14 common migrants became significantly earlier, with six species advancing their arrival by more than 10 days. These comprised two species, Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla and Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita, which winter closest to Britain in southern Europe and the arid northern zone of Africa, Common Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus, which winters in the arid zone, and three hirundines (Sand Martin Riparia riparia, House Martin Delichon urbicum and Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica), which winter in different parts of Africa. Concurrently, departure dates became significantly later for four of the 14 species and included species that winter in southern Europe (Blackcap and Chiffchaff) and in humid zones of Africa (Garden Warbler Sylvia borin and Whinchat Saxicola rubetra). Common Swift Apus apus was the exception in departing significantly earlier. The net result of earlier arrival and later departure for most species was that length of stay has become significantly longer for nine of the 14 species. Species that have advanced their timing of arrival showed the most positive trends in abundance, in accordance with previous studies. Related in part to earlier arrival and the relationship above, we also show that species extending their stay in Great Britain have shown the most positive trends. Further applications of our modelling approach will provide opportunities for more robust tests of relationships between phenological change and population dynamics than have been possible previously.     

Geographic homogeneity and non-equilibrium patterns of mtDNA sequences in Tuscany,Italy

The geographical distribution of 49 mtDNA sequences from 22 localities in Southern Tuscany, Italy, was studied by molecular analysis of variance, by a new spatial autocorrelation statistic specifically designed for sequence data and by reconstructing genealogies of haplotypes. All these methods indicated a high homogeneity of populations. Nevertheless, genetic variability showed significant departure from equilibrium expectations, in agreement with the predicted effects of a population expansion. We suggest that a past population expansion that was probably associated with a migrational wave and with local gene flow between localities prevented spatial structuring in Southern Tuscany. Received: 30 November 1995 / Revised: 5 March 1996     

Migration Watch: an Internet survey to monitor spring migration in Britain and Ireland

The arrival patterns of summer visitors to Britain and Ireland were monitored from 2002 to 2004 using large numbers of birdwatching lists collected by Migration Watch, an Internet-based survey. Records were only accepted from registered observers, and procedures for data validation were implemented. We show here how data on the frequency of occurrence from birdwatching lists can be analysed to estimate the timing and duration of the migration period. Aerial insectivores showed clear species-specific arrival patterns, with sand martins arriving first, followed in succession by swallows, house martins and finally swifts. Wheatears showed two peaks of arrivals, one for the British population and one for passage migrants from Greenland. The progression of arrivals from south to north and variation in arrival timing between years were also demonstrated. The method offers considerable potential for studying migration phenology at large spatial scales, and within Britain and Ireland it is now being applied throughout the year within the BTO/RSPB/BWI BirdTrack project. It could potentially be implemented at a continental scale, at which it would provide an important tool for measuring the growing impacts of global climate change on bird populations.     

Long-term trends in first arrival and first egg laying dates of some migrant and resident bird species in northern Italy

Climate change is affecting the phenology of seasonal events in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere, as shown by several studies of birds’ timing of migration and reproduction. Here, we analyse the long-term (1982–2006) trends of first arrival dates of four long-distance migratory birds [swift (Apus apus), nightingale (Luscinia megarhynchos), barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), and house martin (Delichon urbicum)] and first egg laying dates of two migrant (swift, barn swallow) and two resident species [starling (Sturnus vulgaris), Italian sparrow (Passer italiae)] at a study site in northern Italy. We also addressed the effects of local weather (temperature and precipitation) and a climate index (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) on the interannual variability of phenological events. We found that the swift and the barn swallow significantly advanced both arrival and laying dates, whereas all other species did not show any significant temporal trend in either arrival or laying date. The earlier arrival of swifts was explained by increasing local temperatures in April, whereas this was not the case for arrival dates of swallows and first egg laying dates of both species. In addition, arrival dates of house martins were earlier following high NAO winters, while nightingale arrival was earlier when local spring rainfall was greater. Finally, Italian sparrow onset of reproduction was anticipated by greater spring rainfall, but delayed by high spring NAO anomalies, and swift’s onset of reproduction was anticipated by abundant rainfall prior to reproduction. There were no significant temporal trends in the interval between onset of laying and arrival in either the swift or the barn swallow. Our findings therefore indicate that birds may show idiosyncratic responses to climate variability at different spatial scales, though some species may be adjusting their calendar to rapidly changing climatic conditions.     

Temporal changes in the migration phenology of turtle doves Streptopelia turtur in Britain, based on sightings from coastal bird observatories

Using daily counts of birds seen at six coastal bird observatories in southern and eastern England, we explored the migration phenology of turtle doves during the period 1963 to 2000. Annual totals increased threefold up to the late 1970s then decreased again, in accordance with the BTO Common Birds Census (CBC) index of abundance. Median annual spring arrival and autumn departure dates of turtle doves were not related to abundance (CBC index) or mean temperature in spring or summer respectively. Although median annual spring arrival date has not altered over the 38-year period, median annual autumn departure date has become earlier by 8 days. This has resulted in a shortening of the breeding season by 12 days, which ties in with a reduction in average number of nesting attempts per pair observed by a recent autecological study. It is possible that breeding turtle doves are now out of phase with peaks in food availability. This may have resulted in reduced breeding performance and earlier termination of the breeding season, and may have partly contributed to the decline of the species.     

Timing of migration and residence areas during the non‐breeding period of barn swallows Hirundo rustica in relation to sex and population

We investigated sex‐ and year‐dependent variation in the temporal and spatial movement pattern of barn swallows Hirundo rustica during the non‐breeding period. Hundred and three individuals equipped with miniaturized light‐level geolocators at three different breeding areas in southern Switzerland and northern Italy provided data for the analysis. We identified a region 1000 km in radius centred in Cameroon as the main non‐breeding residence area of these three geographical populations. Five residence areas of males only were in southern Africa, south of 19°S. Most individuals occupied a single site during their stay south of the Sahara. The timing of migration broadly overlapped between sexes and all geographical breeding populations. Between the two study years there was a distinct difference of 5 to 10 d in departure dates from and arrival at the breeding sites. Remarkably, the period of residence in sub‐Saharan Africa was very similar (157 d) in the two study years, but their positions in the first year (2010–2011) were about 400 km more to the north than in the second (2011–2012). Independent of the year, individuals with sub‐Saharan residence areas further north and east had a shorter pre‐breeding migration and arrived earlier than those staying further south and west. In addition, birds breeding in southern Switzerland arrived at their breeding colony 7–10 d later than those breeding only 100 km south, in the Po river plain. Our study provides new information on the variance in migration phenology and the distribution of residence areas in sub‐Saharan Africa in relation to sex, population and year. It supports the usefulness of light‐level geolocators for the study of annual routines of large samples of small birds.     

Spatial and temporal variation in breeding parameters of two south-temperate populations of House Wrens

Studies of variation in breeding parameters are often based on temporal analyses of a single population. However, to differentiate between the effects of regional and local factors, neighboring populations with limited interpopulational dispersal need to be compared. We studied two nearby (< 5 km apart) populations of House Wrens (Troglodytes aedon bonariae) at two ranches (Los Zorzales, 10 years; La Esperanza, 13 years) in south-temperate Argentina to assess the possible effects of regional and local factors on breeding phenology. For each breeding season, we recorded laying dates, clutch sizes, and length of the breeding season, and estimated the reproductive synchrony of first and second breeding attempts. We examined how these breeding parameters were affected by weather, population density, and rates of nest failure. With favorable temperatures during the pre-reproductive period (September–October), wrens in both populations initiated first breeding attempts earlier. However, ordinal laying dates were also affected by local factors, with wrens at Los Zorzales initiating breeding attempts earlier than those at La Esperanza. We found a spatial correlation in clutch sizes between populations for the 2007–2012 breeding seasons, but clutch sizes of first and second nesting attempts showed low variability. Reproductive synchrony of first nesting attempts varied among years, suggesting an effect of regional factors. However, we detected no synchronization between populations and were unable to identify environmental variables that explained the temporal variation. Ordinal laying dates of second clutches were strongly correlated with the ordinal laying dates of first clutches. We also found that the length of breeding seasons was longer when daily nest mortality rates were lower. Although environmental factors seemed to affect the decision of when to start breeding, pairs with successful first nesting attempts were more likely to initiate second nests, thus affecting the length of the breeding season. The spatial variation and temporal variation of the breeding parameters of House Wrens in our study provide evidence of marked plasticity in their breeding decisions and allowed us to identify local and regional environmental factors related to this variation.     

Climatic effects on arrival and laying dates in a long-distance migrant, the Collared Flycatcher Ficedula albicollis

Long‐distance migrants may respond to climate change in breeding, wintering or staging area by changing their phenology. The geographical variation in such responses (e.g. coastal vs. continental Europe) and the relative importance of climate at different spatial scales remain unclear. Here we analysed variation in first arrival dates (FADs) and laying dates of the Collared Flycatcher Ficedula albicollis in a central European population, from 1973 to 2002. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index correlated weakly with local temperature during the laying period. Decreasing spring temperatures until 1980 were associated with a trend towards later laying. The rate of warming (0.2 °C per year) and laying advancement (0.4 days per year) since 1980 are amongst the highest values reported elsewhere. This long‐term trend in laying date was largely explained by the change in climatic factors. The negative effect of local spring temperature on laying was relatively stronger than that of NAO. The number of clutches initiated on a particular day was marginally affected by the temperature 3 days prior to laying and the response of females to daily variation in temperature did not change over years. Correspondence between the average population‐level and the individual‐level responses of laying date to climate variation suggests that the advancement of laying was due to phenotypic plasticity. Despite warmer springs and advanced laying, FADs did not change over years and were not correlated with local spring temperature. Marginal evidence suggests later departure from wintering grounds and faster migration across staging areas in warmer conditions. Advancement of arrival was probably constrained by low local temperatures in early spring just before arrival that have not changed over years. The interval between first arrival and laying has declined since 1980 (0.5 days per year), but the increasing temperature during that period may have kept the food supply approximately unchanged.