2001-2018年中国-老挝交通走廊核心区植被稳定性对极端干旱的响应

中国-老挝交通走廊核心区干旱事件的频繁发生威胁着该区域生态系统的稳定性。基于Palmer干旱指数（PDSI）和增强型植被指数（EVI）数据量化了中老交通走廊核心区不同植被类型的稳定性（年均EVI与其标准差之比）及其对干旱的抵抗力（干旱期间植被结构和功能保持其原始水平的能力）和恢复力（植被恢复到干旱前水平的速度）。结果表明：（1）2001-2018年间,中老交通走廊核心区共发生5次极端干旱事件,出现极端干旱的年份有2005年、2010年、2015年、2016年和2017年,以上年份极端干旱面积占总面积的比例分别为13.37%、47.46%、10.41%、12.00%和3.05%;（2）不同植被类型对极端干旱的响应不同,中老交通走廊核心区内常绿阔叶林的稳定性显著高于其他植被类型,和其他植被类型相比,常绿阔叶林虽然暴露在干旱环境中的时间更长,但其具有更高的稳定性,在维持中老交通走廊核心区的生态系统稳定性上发挥着重要作用;（3）常绿阔叶林和木本稀树草原对极端干旱的抵抗力和恢复力显著高于混交林、草地和农田,研究区内各植被类型对极端干旱的抵抗力与温度和降水呈显著正相关关系。     

Forest resilience to drought varies across biomes

Forecasted increase drought frequency and severity may drive worldwide declines in forest productivity. Species‐level responses to a drier world are likely to be influenced by their functional traits. Here, we analyse forest resilience to drought using an extensive network of tree‐ring width data and satellite imagery. We compiled proxies of forest growth and productivity (TRWi, absolutely dated ring‐width indices; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for 11 tree species and 502 forests in Spain corresponding to Mediterranean, temperate, and continental biomes. Four different components of forest resilience to drought were calculated based on TRWi and NDVI data before, during, and after four major droughts (1986, 1994–1995, 1999, and 2005), and pointed out that TRWi data were more sensitive metrics of forest resilience to drought than NDVI data. Resilience was related to both drought severity and forest composition. Evergreen gymnosperms dominating semi‐arid Mediterranean forests showed the lowest resistance to drought, but higher recovery than deciduous angiosperms dominating humid temperate forests. Moreover, semi‐arid gymnosperm forests presented a negative temporal trend in the resistance to drought, but this pattern was absent in continental and temperate forests. Although gymnosperms in dry Mediterranean forests showed a faster recovery after drought, their recovery potential could be constrained if droughts become more frequent. Conversely, angiosperms and gymnosperms inhabiting temperate and continental sites might have problems to recover after more intense droughts since they resist drought but are less able to recover afterwards.     

中国灌木生态系统的干旱化趋势及其对植被生长的影响

大量研究表明,21世纪全球气温将持续升高,干旱将不断加剧,具有超强抗旱能力的灌木在未来的区域乃至全球生态系统过程中将会发挥越来越重要的作用。灌木在我国有着广泛的分布,其总面积超过了我国陆地面积的20%。本研究旨在通过计算中国灌木生态系统的标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI)来分析其干旱变化趋势及其对灌木生态系统植被生长的影响。结果显示,中国灌木生态系统的SPEI在1961—2013年间总体上呈显著地下降趋势,但其趋势在1992年发生了显著变化,这表明中国灌木生态系统正在持续地干旱化,并且在最近二十几年干旱化加剧。我们还分析了不同灌木生态系统EVI(Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI)对SPEI变化的响应,结果显示不同的灌木生态系统类型对SPEI变化的响应不同。夏季,高寒荒漠灌木半灌木、温带荒漠灌木半灌木和温带落叶灌木EVI与SPEI变化显著正相关,而亚高山常绿灌木和亚热带常绿灌木EVI则与SPEI的变化显著负相关。温带落叶灌木EVI与春季SPEI变化显著正相关,但却与秋季和冬季的SPEI显著负相关。此外,亚热带常绿灌木EVI还与春季SPEI变化显著正相关。从空间上来看,北方的灌木生态系统比南方的灌木生态系统对干旱的变化更加敏感,同时,南方湿润地区的灌木在生态系统尺度也体现了较强的抗旱能力。在全球持续干旱化的大背景下,研究灌木生态系统EVI对干旱变化的响应将有助于对区域生态系统过程变化的理解。     

Regime shifts of Mediterranean forest carbon uptake and reduced resilience driven by multidecadal ocean surface temperatures

The mechanisms translating global circulation changes into rapid abrupt shifts in forest carbon capture in semi‐arid biomes remain poorly understood. Here, we report unprecedented multidecadal shifts in forest carbon uptake in semi‐arid Mediterranean pine forests in Spain over 1950–2012. The averaged carbon sink reduction varies between 31% and 37%, and reaches values in the range of 50% in the most affected forest stands. Regime shifts in forest carbon uptake are associated with climatic early warning signals, decreased forest regional synchrony and reduced long‐term carbon sink resilience. We identify the mechanisms linked to ocean multidecadal variability that shape regime shifts in carbon capture. First, we show that low‐frequency variations of the surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean induce shifts in the non‐stationary effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on regional forest carbon capture. Modelling evidence supports that the non‐stationary effects of ENSO can be propagated from tropical areas to semi‐arid Mediterranean biomes through atmospheric wave trains. Second, decadal changes in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) significantly alter sea–air heat exchanges, modifying in turn ocean vapour transport over land and land surface temperatures, and promoting sustained drought conditions in spring and summer that reduce forest carbon uptake. Third, we show that lagged effects of AMO on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation also contribute to the maintenance of long‐term droughts. Finally, we show that the reported strong, negative effects of ocean surface temperature (AMO) on forest carbon uptake in the last decades are unprecedented over the last 150 years. Our results provide new, unreported explanations for carbon uptake shifts in these drought‐prone forests and review the expected impacts of global warming on the profiled mechanisms.     

Drought causes reduced growth of trembling aspen in western Canada

Adequate and advance knowledge of the response of forest ecosystems to temperature‐induced drought is critical for a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of global climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function. Recent massive decline in aspen‐dominated forests and an increased aspen mortality in boreal forests have been associated with global warming, but it is still uncertain whether the decline and mortality are driven by drought. We used a series of ring‐width chronologies from 40 trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) sites along a latitudinal gradient (from 52° to 58°N) in western Canada, in an attempt to clarify the impacts of drought on aspen growth by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Results indicated that prolonged and large‐scale droughts had a strong negative impact on trembling aspen growth. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal variability of drought indices is useful for explaining the spatial heterogeneity in the radial growth of trembling aspen. Due to ongoing global warming and rising temperatures, it is likely that severer droughts with a higher frequency will occur in western Canada. As trembling aspen is sensitive to drought, we suggest that drought indices could be applied to monitor the potential effects of increased drought stress on aspen trees growth, achieve classification of eco‐regions and develop effective mitigation strategies to maintain western Canadian boreal forests.     

Satellite detection of cumulative and lagged effects of drought on autumn leaf senescence over the Northern Hemisphere

Climate change has substantial influences on autumn leaf senescence, that is, the end of the growing season (EOS). Relative to the impacts of temperature and precipitation on EOS, the influence of drought is not well understood, especially considering that there are apparent cumulative and lagged effects of drought on plant growth. Here, we investigated the cumulative and lagged effects of drought (in terms of the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) on EOS derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) data over the Northern Hemisphere extra‐tropical ecosystems (>30°N) during 1982–2015. The cumulative effect was determined by the number of antecedent months at which SPEI showed the maximum correlation with EOS (i.e., R_max‐cml) while the lag effect was determined by a month during which the maximum correlation between 1‐month SPEI and EOS occurred (i.e., R_max‐lag). We found cumulative effect of drought on EOS for 27.2% and lagged effect for 46.2% of the vegetated land area. For the dominant time scales where the R_max‐cml and R_max‐lag occurred, we observed 1–4 accumulated months for the cumulative effect and 2–6 lagged months for the lagged effect. At the biome level, drought had stronger impacts on EOS in grasslands, savannas, and shrubs than in forests, which may be related to the different root functional traits among vegetation types. Considering hydrological conditions, the mean values of both R_max‐cml and R_max‐lag decreased along the gradients of annual SPEI and its slope, suggesting stronger cumulative and lagged effects in drier regions as well as in areas with decreasing water availability. Furthermore, the average accumulated and lagged months tended to decline along the annual SPEI gradient but increase with increasing annual SPEI. Our results revealed that drought has strong cumulative and lagged effects on autumn phenology, and considering these effects could provide valuable information on the vegetation response to a changing climate.     

Environmental change and the carbon balance of Amazonian forests

Extreme climatic events and land‐use change are known to influence strongly the current carbon cycle of Amazonia, and have the potential to cause significant global climate impacts. This review intends to evaluate the effects of both climate and anthropogenic perturbations on the carbon balance of the Brazilian Amazon and to understand how they interact with each other. By analysing the outputs of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4) model ensemble, we demonstrate that Amazonian temperatures and water stress are both likely to increase over the 21st Century. Curbing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 62% in 2010 relative to the 1990s mean decreased the Brazilian Amazon's deforestation contribution to global land use carbon emissions from 17% in the 1990s and early 2000s to 9% by 2010. Carbon sources in Amazonia are likely to be dominated by climatic impacts allied with forest fires (48.3% relative contribution) during extreme droughts. The current net carbon sink (net biome productivity, NBP) of +0.16 (ranging from +0.11 to +0.21) Pg C year^?1 in the Brazilian Amazon, equivalent to 13.3% of global carbon emissions from land‐use change for 2008, can be negated or reversed during drought years [NBP = ?0.06 (?0.31 to +0.01) Pg C year^?1]. Therefore, reducing forest fires, in addition to reducing deforestation, would be an important measure for minimizing future emissions. Conversely, doubling the current area of secondary forests and avoiding additional removal of primary forests would help the Amazonian gross forest sink to offset approximately 42% of global land‐use change emissions. We conclude that a few strategic environmental policy measures are likely to strengthen the Amazonian net carbon sink with global implications. Moreover, these actions could increase the resilience of the net carbon sink to future increases in drought frequency.     

Growth and resilience responses of Scots pine to extreme droughts across Europe depend on predrought growth conditions

Global climate change is expected to further raise the frequency and severity of extreme events, such as droughts. The effects of extreme droughts on trees are difficult to disentangle given the inherent complexity of drought events (frequency, severity, duration, and timing during the growing season). Besides, drought effects might be modulated by trees’ phenotypic variability, which is, in turn, affected by long‐term local selective pressures and management legacies. Here we investigated the magnitude and the temporal changes of tree‐level resilience (i.e., resistance, recovery, and resilience) to extreme droughts. Moreover, we assessed the tree‐, site‐, and drought‐related factors and their interactions driving the tree‐level resilience to extreme droughts. We used a tree‐ring network of the widely distributed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along a 2,800 km latitudinal gradient from southern Spain to northern Germany. We found that the resilience to extreme drought decreased in mid‐elevation and low productivity sites from 1980–1999 to 2000–2011 likely due to more frequent and severe droughts in the later period. Our study showed that the impact of drought on tree‐level resilience was not dependent on its latitudinal location, but rather on the type of sites trees were growing at and on their growth performances (i.e., magnitude and variability of growth) during the predrought period. We found significant interactive effects between drought duration and tree growth prior to drought, suggesting that Scots pine trees with higher magnitude and variability of growth in the long term are more vulnerable to long and severe droughts. Moreover, our results indicate that Scots pine trees that experienced more frequent droughts over the long‐term were less resistant to extreme droughts. We, therefore, conclude that the physiological resilience to extreme droughts might be constrained by their growth prior to drought, and that more frequent and longer drought periods may overstrain their potential for acclimation.     

Global human influence maps reveal clear opportunities in conserving Earth’s remaining intact terrestrial ecosystems

Leading up to the Convention on Biological Diversity Conference of the Parties 15, there is momentum around setting bold conservation targets. Yet, it remains unclear how much of Earth's land area remains without significant human influence and where this land is located. We compare four recent global maps of human influences across Earth's land, Anthromes, Global Human Modification, Human Footprint and Low Impact Areas, to answer these questions. Despite using various methodologies and data, these different spatial assessments independently estimate similar percentages of the Earth's terrestrial surface as having very low (20%–34%) and low (48%–56%) human influence. Three out of four spatial assessments agree on 46% of the non‐permanent ice‐ or snow‐covered land as having low human influence. However, much of the very low and low influence portions of the planet are comprised of cold (e.g., boreal forests, montane grasslands and tundra) or arid (e.g., deserts) landscapes. Only four biomes (boreal forests, deserts, temperate coniferous forests and tundra) have a majority of datasets agreeing that at least half of their area has very low human influence. More concerning, <1% of temperate grasslands, tropical coniferous forests and tropical dry forests have very low human influence across most datasets, and tropical grasslands, mangroves and montane grasslands also have <1% of land identified as very low influence across all datasets. These findings suggest that about half of Earth's terrestrial surface has relatively low human influence and offers opportunities for proactive conservation actions to retain the last intact ecosystems on the planet. However, though the relative abundance of ecosystem areas with low human influence varies widely by biome, conserving these last intact areas should be a high priority before they are completely lost.     

Critical transitions in rainfall manipulation experiments on grasslands

As a result of climate and land‐use changes, grasslands have been subjected to intensifying drought regimes. Extreme droughts could interfere in the positive feedbacks between grasses and soil water content, pushing grasslands across critical thresholds of productivity and leading them to collapse. If this happens, systems may show hysteresis and costly management interventions might be necessary to restore predrought productivity. Thus, neglecting critical transitions may lead to mismanagement of grasslands and to irreversible loss of ecosystem services. Rainfall manipulation experiments constitute a powerful approach to investigate the risk of such critical transitions. However, experiments performed to date have rarely applied extreme droughts and have used resilience indices that disregard the existence of hysteresis. Here, we suggest how to incorporate critical transitions when designing rainfall manipulation experiments on grasslands and when measuring their resilience to drought. The ideas presented here have the potential to trigger a perspective shift among experimental researchers, into a new state where the existence of critical transitions will be discussed, experimentally tested, and largely considered when assessing and managing vegetation resilience to global changes.     

Tree mortality across biomes is promoted by drought intensity,lower wood density and higher specific leaf area

Drought events are increasing globally, and reports of consequent forest mortality are widespread. However, due to a lack of a quantitative global synthesis, it is still not clear whether drought‐induced mortality rates differ among global biomes and whether functional traits influence the risk of drought‐induced mortality. To address these uncertainties, we performed a global meta‐analysis of 58 studies of drought‐induced forest mortality. Mortality rates were modelled as a function of drought, temperature, biomes, phylogenetic and functional groups and functional traits. We identified a consistent global‐scale response, where mortality increased with drought severity [log mortality (trees trees^?1 year^?1) increased 0.46 (95% CI = 0.2–0.7) with one SPEI unit drought intensity]. We found no significant differences in the magnitude of the response depending on forest biomes or between angiosperms and gymnosperms or evergreen and deciduous tree species. Functional traits explained some of the variation in drought responses between species (i.e. increased from 30 to 37% when wood density and specific leaf area were included). Tree species with denser wood and lower specific leaf area showed lower mortality responses. Our results illustrate the value of functional traits for understanding patterns of drought‐induced tree mortality and suggest that mortality could become increasingly widespread in the future.     

近57年来黄土高原干旱特征及其与大气环流的关系

通过黄土高原地区52个气象站点1961-2017年的气象资料,利用不同尺度的标准化降水指数（Standardized Precipitation Index,SPI）和标准化降水蒸散指数（Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI）对该区57年来干旱的时空变化特征进行了分析,并利用交叉小波变换探讨了干旱指标与大气环流的遥相关分析,得到了以下结论：（1）时间变化上,黄土高原57年来不同干旱指标均呈下降趋势,整体逐渐变干旱。但SPEI6指标较SPI6指标相比,干旱年份更多,干旱特征更明显,说明SPEI的计算由于考虑了蒸散发输入因此结果偏重.不同指标均显示,1999年以来,黄土高原地区干旱时有发生,但整体有降低的趋势。（2） SPEI6和SPI6的站次比和干旱强度最高点都出现在1999年,但SPEI6的站次比和干旱强度的变化幅度更剧烈,且出现全域性干旱的年份（5年）也多于SPI6（3年）;SPEI12相较于SPI12,站次比和干旱强度较为相似,都在1966年达到顶峰,虽然出现全域性干旱的年份SPEI12（9年）多于SPI12（3年）,但SPI12的干旱强度更高。（3）平原区的汾渭平原是轻旱多发区,河套平原、宁夏平原易发生中旱,同时宁夏平原还是重旱多发区。丘陵区西部的中宁、同心两地易发生重旱,乌审旗出现特旱。山地区干旱频率普遍较高,尤其是西部山地区的乌鞘岭重旱、特旱频发。（4） SPEI指数对环流指数的变化更敏感。AMO对区域各干旱指标的影响较小,ENSO、WPI对SPI6、SPEI6有显著的响应;而PNA对6个月尺度的干旱指标（SPI6、SPEI6）影响较小,对12个月尺度的干旱指标（SPI12、SPEI12）影响较大。区域干旱是一个复杂的自然现象,为了进一步探索不同干旱指标在不同区域的运用,必要时可采用多种指标,从不同角度比较多种干旱指标的相似性,从而避免单一指标对结果的局限性。     

Forests growing under dry conditions have higher hydrological resilience to drought than do more humid forests

More frequent and intense droughts are projected during the next century, potentially changing the hydrological balances in many forested catchments. Although the impacts of droughts on forest functionality have been vastly studied, little attention has been given to studying the effect of droughts on forest hydrology. Here, we use the Budyko framework and two recently introduced Budyko metrics (deviation and elasticity) to study the changes in the water yields (rainfall minus evapotranspiration) of forested catchments following a climatic drought (2006–2010) in pine forests distributed along a rainfall gradient (P = 280–820 mm yr^?1) in the Eastern Mediterranean (aridity factor = 0.17–0.56). We use a satellite‐based model and meteorological information to calculate the Budyko metrics. The relative water yield ranged from 48% to 8% (from the rainfall) in humid to dry forests and was mainly associated with rainfall amount (increasing with increased rainfall amount) and bedrock type (higher on hard bedrocks). Forest elasticity was larger in forests growing under drier conditions, implying that drier forests have more predictable responses to drought, according to the Budyko framework, compared to forests growing under more humid conditions. In this context, younger forests were shown more elastic than older forests. Dynamic deviation, which is defined as the water yield departure from the Budyko curve, was positive in all forests (i.e., less‐than‐expected water yields according to Budyko's curve), increasing with drought severity, suggesting lower hydrological resistance to drought in forests suffering from larger rainfall reductions. However, the dynamic deviation significantly decreased in forests that experienced relatively cooler conditions during the drought period. Our results suggest that forests growing under permanent dry conditions might develop a range of hydrological and eco‐physiological adjustments to drought leading to higher hydrological resilience. In the context of predicted climate change, such adjustments are key factors in sustaining forested catchments in water‐limited regions.     

Disturbance maintains alternative biome states

Understanding the mechanisms controlling the distribution of biomes remains a challenge. Although tropical biome distribution has traditionally been explained by climate and soil, contrasting vegetation types often occur as mosaics with sharp boundaries under very similar environmental conditions. While evidence suggests that these biomes are alternative states, empirical broad‐scale support to this hypothesis is still lacking. Using community‐level field data and a novel resource‐niche overlap approach, we show that, for a wide range of environmental conditions, fire feedbacks maintain savannas and forests as alternative biome states in both the Neotropics and the Afrotropics. In addition, wooded grasslands and savannas occurred as alternative grassy states in the Afrotropics, depending on the relative importance of fire and herbivory feedbacks. These results are consistent with landscape scale evidence and suggest that disturbance is a general factor driving and maintaining alternative biome states and vegetation mosaics in the tropics.     

Assimilation exceeds respiration sensitivity to drought: A FLUXNET synthesis

The intensification of the hydrological cycle, with an observed and modeled increase in drought incidence and severity, underscores the need to quantify drought effects on carbon cycling and the terrestrial sink. FLUXNET, a global network of eddy covariance towers, provides dense data streams of meteorological data, and through flux partitioning and gap filling algorithms, estimates of net ecosystem productivity (F_NEP), gross ecosystem productivity (P), and ecosystem respiration (R). We analyzed the functional relationship of these three carbon fluxes relative to evaporative fraction (EF), an index of drought and site water status, using monthly data records from 238 micrometeorological tower sites distributed globally across 11 biomes. The analysis was based on relative anomalies of both EF and carbon fluxes and focused on drought episodes by biome and climatic season. Globally P was ≈50% more sensitive to a drought event than R. Network‐wide drought‐induced decreases in carbon flux averaged ?16.6 and ?9.3 g C m^?2 month^?1 for P and R, i.e., drought events induced a net decline in the terrestrial sink. However, in evergreen forests and wetlands drought was coincident with an increase in P or R during parts of the growing season. The most robust relationships between carbon flux and EF occurred during climatic spring for F_NEP and in climatic summer for P and R. Upscaling flux sensitivities to a global map showed that spatial patterns for all three carbon fluxes were linked to the distribution of croplands. Agricultural areas exhibited the highest sensitivity whereas the tropical region had minimal sensitivity to drought. Combining gridded flux sensitivities with their uncertainties and the spatial grid of FLUXNET revealed that a more robust quantification of carbon flux response to drought requires additional towers in all biomes of Africa and Asia as well as in the cropland, shrubland, savannah, and wetland biomes globally.     

The carbon balance of tropical, temperate and boreal forests

Forest biomes are major reserves for terrestrial carbon, and major components of global primary productivity. The carbon balance of forests is determined by a number of component processes of carbon acquisition and carbon loss, and a small shift in the magnitude of these processes would have a large impact on the global carbon cycle. In this paper, we discuss the climatic influences on the carbon dynamics of boreal, temperate and tropical forests by presenting a new synthesis of micrometeorological, ecophysiological and forestry data, concentrating on three case-study sites. Historical changes in the carbon balance of each biome are also reviewed, and the evidence for a carbon sink in each forest biome and its likely behaviour under future global change are discussed. We conclude that there have been significant advances in determining the carbon balance of forests, but there are still critical uncertainties remaining, particularly in the behaviour of soil carbon stocks.     

Climate change-induced ecosystem disturbance: a review on sclerophyllous and semi-deciduous forests in Tunisia

According to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate change is now unequivocal. Tunisia, like many other countries, has been affected by climate changes, including rising temperatures, intense heatwaves, and altered precipitation regimes. Tunisia's mean annual temperatures has risen about +1.4 °C in the twentieth century, with the most rapid warming taking place since the 1970s. Drought represents a primary contributing factor to tree decline and dieback. Long-term drought can result in reduced growth and health of trees, thereby increasing their susceptibility to insect pests and pathogens. Reported increases in tree mortality point toward accelerating global forest vulnerability under hotter temperatures and longer, more intense droughts. In order to assess the effect of these climate changes on the current state of forest ecosystems in Tunisia and their evolution, an investigative study was required. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the effects of climate change on sclerophyllous and semi-deciduous forest ecosystems in Tunisia. Natural disturbance during recent years, as well as the adaptability and resilience of some forest species to climate change, were surveyed. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a multi-scalar drought index based on climate data that has been used to analyse drought variability. The SPEI time scale analysis showed a negative trend over the 1955–2021 period in Tunisian forest regions. In 2021, Tunisia lost 280 km² of tree cover to fires, which is equivalent to 26% of the total lost area between 2008 and 2021. Changing climate conditions have also affected phenological parameters, with an advance in the start of the green season (SOS) of 9.4 days, a delay at the end of the green season (EOS) of 5 days, with a consequent extended duration of the green season (LOS) by an average of 14.2 days. All of these alarming findings invite us to seek adaptation strategies for forest ecosystems. Adapting forests to climate change is therefore a challenge for scientists as well as policymakers and managers.     

A new global biome reconstruction and data-model comparison for the Middle Pliocene

Aim To produce a robust, comprehensive global biome reconstruction for the Middle Pliocene (c. 3.6–2.6 Ma), which is based on an internally consistent palaeobotanical data set and a state‐of‐the‐art coupled climate–vegetation model. The reconstruction gives a more rigorous picture of climate and environmental change during the Middle Pliocene and provides a new boundary condition for future general circulation model (GCM) studies. Location Global. Methods Compilation of Middle Pliocene vegetation data from 202 marine and terrestrial sites into the comprehensive GIS data base TEVIS (Tertiary Environmental Information System). Translation into an internally consistent classification scheme using 28 biomes. Comparison and synthesis of vegetation reconstruction from palaeodata with the outputs of the mechanistically based BIOME4 model forced by climatology derived from the HadAM3 GCM. Results The model results compare favourably with available palaeodata and highlight the importance of employing vegetation–climate feedbacks and the anomaly method in biome models. Both the vegetation reconstruction from palaeobotanical data and the BIOME4 prediction indicate a general warmer and moister climate for the Middle Pliocene. Evergreen taiga as well as temperate forest and grassland shifted northward, resulting in much reduced tundra vegetation. Warm‐temperate forests (with subtropical taxa) spread in mid and eastern Europe and tropical savannas and woodland expanded in Africa and Australia at the expense of deserts. Discrepancies which occurred between data reconstruction and model simulation can be related to: (1) poor spatial model resolution and data coverage; (2) uncertainties in delimiting biomes using climate parameters; or (3) uncertainties in model physics and/or geological boundary conditions. Main conclusions The new global biome reconstruction combines vegetation reconstruction from palaeobotanical proxies with model simulations. It is an important contribution to the further understanding of climate and vegetation changes during the Middle Pliocene warm interval and will enhance our knowledge about how vegetation may change in the future.     

Global patterns of plant diversity and floristic knowledge

Aims We present the first global map of vascular plant species richness by ecoregion and compare these results with the published literature on global priorities for plant conservation. In so doing, we assess the state of floristic knowledge across ecoregions as described in floras, checklists, and other published documents and pinpoint geographical gaps in our understanding of the global vascular plant flora. Finally, we explore the relationships between plant species richness by ecoregion and our knowledge of the flora, and between plant richness and the human footprint – a spatially explicit measure of the loss and degradation of natural habitats and ecosystems as a result of human activities. Location Global. Methods Richness estimates for the 867 terrestrial ecoregions of the world were derived from published richness data of c. 1800 geographical units. We applied one of four methods to assess richness, depending on data quality. These included collation and interpretation of published data, use of species–area curves to extrapolate richness, use of taxon‐based data, and estimates derived from other ecoregions within the same biome. Results The highest estimate of plant species richness is in the Borneo lowlands ecoregion (10,000 species) followed by nine ecoregions located in Central and South America with ≥ 8000 species; all are found within the Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forests biome. Among the 51 ecoregions with ≥ 5000 species, only five are located in temperate regions. For 43% of the 867 ecoregions, data quality was considered good or moderate. Among biomes, adequate data are especially lacking for flooded grasslands and flooded savannas. We found a significant correlation between species richness and data quality for only a few biomes, and, in all of these cases, our results indicated that species‐rich ecoregions are better studied than those poor in vascular plants. Similarly, only in a few biomes did we find significant correlations between species richness and the human footprint, all of which were positive. Main conclusions The work presented here sets the stage for comparisons of degree of concordance of plant species richness with plant endemism and vertebrate species richness: important analyses for a comprehensive global biodiversity strategy. We suggest: (1) that current global plant conservation strategies be reviewed to check if they cover the most outstanding examples of regions from each of the world's major biomes, even if these examples are species‐poor compared with other biomes; (2) that flooded grasslands and flooded savannas should become a global priority in collecting and compiling richness data for vascular plants; and (3) that future studies which rely upon species–area calculations do not use a uniform parameter value but instead use values derived separately for subregions.