Back to the Future: The Responses of Alpine Treelines to Climate Warming are Constrained by the Current Ecotone Structure

Alpine treeline ecotones are considered early-warning monitors of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, but it is still unclear how accurately treeline dynamics may track the expected temperature rises. Site-specific abiotic constraints, such as topography and demographic trends may make treelines less responsive to environmental fluctuations. A better understanding on how local processes modulate treelines’ response to warming is thus required. We developed a model of treeline dynamics based on individual data of growth, mortality and reproduction. Specifically, we modeled growth patterns, mortality rates and reproductive size thresholds as a function of temperature and stand structure to evaluate the influence of climate- and stand-related processes on treeline dynamics. In this study, we analyze the dynamics of four Pyrenean mountain pine treeline sites with contrasting stand structures, and subjected to differing rates of climate warming. Our models indicate that Pyrenean treelines could reach basal areas and reproductive potentials similar to those currently observed in high-elevation subalpine forest by the mid twenty-first century. The fastest paces of treeline densification are forecasted by the late twenty-first century and are associated with higher warming rates. We found a common densification response of Pyrenean treelines to climate warming, but contrasting paces arise due to current size structures. Treelines characterized by a multistratified stand structure and subjected to lower mean annual temperatures were the most responsive to climate warming. In monostratified stands, tree growth was less sensitive to temperature than in multistratified stands and trees reached their reproductive size threshold later. Therefore, our simulations highlight that stand structure is paramount in modulating treeline responsiveness to ongoing climate warming. Synthesis. Treeline densification over the twenty-first century is likely to occur at different rates contingent on current stand structure and its effects on individual-level tree growth responses to warming. Accurate projections of future treeline dynamics must thus incorporate site-specific factors other than climate, specifically those related to stand structure and its influence on tree growth.     

A comparison between different treeline types shows contrasting responses to climate fluctuations

Treeline position is mainly determined by growth season temperature, but the response of treelines to climate warming is not uniform worldwide. We compared treeline structure, dynamics and thermal profile in nearby areas with different treeline type, species composition and bioclimatic conditions. We performed a detailed survey of different treeline types in three areas of Italian Alps and northern Apennines. Every tree individual was recorded along altitudinal transects from the closed forest to the species limit. Treeline structure and dynamics were described through altitudinal limits of tree height, density and age. Data were elaborated by principal components analysis. Temperature regime of the three sites was assessed from homogeneous historical climatic data. Treeline was different in the three areas for species composition, shape and dynamics. Both Alpine sites showed diffuse treeline, but only one showed advancing dynamics. Apennine treeline was abrupt and static, with higher temperature at the tree limit. Our study showed the variable dynamics of treelines within a relatively restricted area and the connection between treeline shape and dynamics. An important role is played by species composition, determined by bioclimatic and historical features. These factors should be taken into account when modelling future treeline dynamics at global scale.     

The interacting effects of temperature,ground disturbance,and herbivory on seedling establishment: implications for treeline advance with climate warming

Thermal control of treeline position is mediated by local environmental and ecological factors, making trends in treeline migration difficult to extrapolate geographically. We investigated the ecological dynamics of conifer establishment at treeline in the Mealy Mountains (Labrador, Canada) and the potential for its expansion with climate warming. Available seedbed and tree seedling emergence in the treeline ecotone were monitored, and seeds and seedlings of Picea mariana were planted along an elevational gradient from open-canopy forest through tree islands to alpine tundra. Experimental treatments included passive warming of daytime air, ground disturbance, and vertebrate herbivore exclosures. Responses in seed germination and seedling growth, damage, and mortality were monitored over two growing seasons, and re-surveyed after 5 years. While no tree seedlings were observed growing naturally above the treeline, planted seeds were able to germinate, develop and overwinter, and persist for 4 years in all habitats examined. Disturbance of the seedbed was important for seedling emergence in the forest and tree islands. While temperature enhancement alone had little impact on emergence, even moderate temperature increases had significantly disproportionate effects on emergence of seedlings in the alpine habitat when combined with soil disturbance, indicating that future climate warming could lead to treeline advance if viable seed and suitable substrate for recruitment are available. The positive effect of excluding herbivores suggests that herbivory may be an important filter modifying future species distribution. While seedbed conditions and herbivory would control the rate of individual species advance, the results indicate potential upslope migration of the treeline in the Mealy Mountains, with consequent loss of alpine ecosystems.     

Fine-scale distribution of treeline trees and the nurse plant facilitation on the eastern Tibetan Plateau

Above-average climate warming occurred during the 20th century in high altitude regions, and alpine treelines are believed to be an early indicator to respond to these warming-related changes. However, empirical investigations on treeline dynamics showed diverse results. The main objectives of this study are: (1) to investigate if treeline position shifted and if tree recruitment changed along with climate warming, and (2) to test if adult trees have “nursing effect” on tree establishment at treelines. We investigated two Balfour spruce (Picea balfouriana Rehd. et Wils.) treelines in Chang Niang (CNT) and Dang Dui (DDT), Dingqing county, Changdu prefecture, eastern Tibet. At each treeline site, three replicate plots with a size 30 m × 50 m were established. The coordinates of each tree within the plots were recorded and the age of each tree was identified by dendrochronological method. The changes in treeline position and tree recruitment were examined from spatially fine-scale distribution of trees and their age structure. The spatial patterns of individual trees were analyzed to infer the neighborhood effects. Results indicate that plots CNT2, CNT3, DDT1 and DDT2 showed stable treeline position during the last century, whereas plots CNT1 and DDT3 showed treeline advancing movement. Tree recruitments in all the six plots were enhanced during the 20th century, with two peaks occurring in the 1890–1910s and the 1950–1990s. Seedlings and saplings showed a general clustered distribution in all the six plots. The diverse pattern of treeline movement and episodic regeneration suggest that the treeline activity is not merely a result of climate change. “Nursing effects” from adult trees may play an important role in shaping the treeline activities on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Our findings reveal diverse patterns in treeline dynamics at a local scale and highlight the importance of incorporating biotic interactions into species distribution modeling approaches.     

Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming

Treelines are temperature sensitive transition zones that are expected to respond to climate warming by advancing beyond their current position. Response to climate warming over the last century, however, has been mixed, with some treelines showing evidence of recruitment at higher altitudes and/or latitudes (advance) whereas others reveal no marked change in the upper limit of tree establishment. To explore this variation, we analysed a global dataset of 166 sites for which treeline dynamics had been recorded since 1900 AD. Advance was recorded at 52% of sites with only 1% reporting treeline recession. Treelines that experienced strong winter warming were more likely to have advanced, and treelines with a diffuse form were more likely to have advanced than those with an abrupt or krummholz form. Diffuse treelines may be more responsive to warming because they are more strongly growth limited, whereas other treeline forms may be subject to additional constraints.     

Biome changes and their inferred climatic drivers in northern and eastern continental Asia at selected times since 40 cal ka <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">bp</Emphasis>

Recent global warming is pronounced in high-latitude regions (e.g. northern Asia), and will cause the vegetation to change. Future vegetation trends (e.g. the “arctic greening”) will feed back into atmospheric circulation and the global climate system. Understanding the nature and causes of past vegetation changes is important for predicting the composition and distribution of future vegetation communities. Fossil pollen records from 468 sites in northern and eastern Asia were biomised at selected times between 40 cal ka bp and today. Biomes were also simulated using a climate-driven biome model and results from the two approaches compared in order to help understand the mechanisms behind the observed vegetation changes. The consistent biome results inferred by both approaches reveal that long-term and broad-scale vegetation patterns reflect global- to hemispheric-scale climate changes. Forest biomes increase around the beginning of the late deglaciation, become more widespread during the early and middle Holocene, and decrease in the late Holocene in fringe areas of the Asian Summer Monsoon. At the southern and southwestern margins of the taiga, forest increases in the early Holocene and shows notable species succession, which may have been caused by winter warming at ca. 7 cal ka bp. At the northeastern taiga margin (central Yakutia and northeastern Siberia), shrub expansion during the last deglaciation appears to prevent the permafrost from thawing and hinders the northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species until ca. 7 cal ka bp. The vegetation-climate disequilibrium during the early Holocene in the taiga-tundra transition zone suggests that projected climate warming will not cause a northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species.     

A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs

Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland''s current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates.     

高山林线变化的更新受限机制研究进展

全球林线位置对气候变暖的响应表现为上升、无变化或下降等截然不同趋势,表明影响林线位置及动态的因子十分复杂,除了较普遍认为的低温调控机制外,还存在其它控制林线位置变化的机制。林线向上迁移开始于种子向林线以上的传播及幼苗在林线以上的定居,这些过程中的限制因子均会影响林线的位移,因此研究更新过程及其限制因子对理解高山林线对气候变化的响应具有重要的科学意义。主要从种子和幼苗两个关键阶段综述高山林线森林更新的研究进展。在种子阶段,夏季积温不足导致种子产量和活力下降,风速过低和浓密灌丛限制种子向林线以上传播,近地表的霜冻/水分胁迫和灌木释放的化感物质会阻碍种子在林线以上萌发。在幼苗阶段,除冬季低温外,生长季内较大的温度日振幅和偶然出现的冻害事件也是导致幼苗死亡的重要原因,而低温环境下的强烈光照引起的低温光抑制会显著降低生长季的光合作用;土壤低温、由土壤温度昼夜变化引起的冻举事件、夏季土壤干旱可能会导致幼苗光合作用下降和死亡率上升;积雪太浅会导致生长季早期幼苗水分供应的严重缺乏,但积雪太深会导致幼苗感染真菌的可能性增加;浓密的灌木和草本植物以及植食动物的啃食也会降低林线以上的幼苗存活率。气候变暖对林线幼苗定居的影响复杂且具有很大不确定性,需要进一步研究气候变暖导致的环境因子变化对林线更新各关键阶段的影响。未来气候变暖无疑会导致生长季起始日提前,结束日推迟,这很可能会增加生长季期间尤其是早期的低温冻害事件,对高山林线树种幼苗的存活具有重要影响。在未来研究中,需要找出定义生长季冻害事件的温度阈值,利用长期气象观测数据分析增温背景下生长季早期冻害事件特征的变化趋势,并进一步开展野外模拟增温实验以深刻理解林线树种的种子萌发和幼苗定居与生长季冻害事件的关系,加强对不同地区林线树种的繁殖策略研究,这将有助于人们进一步理解不同区域林线的形成机制并预测未来气候变化条件下林线的动态变化趋势。     

Limited prospects for future alpine treeline advance in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Treeline advance has occurred throughout the twentieth century in mountainous regions around the world; however, local variation and temporal lags in responses to climate warming indicate that the upper limits of some treelines are not necessarily in climatic equilibrium. These observations suggest that factors other than climate are constraining tree establishment beyond existing treelines. Using a seed addition experiment, we tested the effects of seed availability, predation and microsite limitation on the establishment of two subalpine tree species (Picea engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa) across four treelines in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. The effect of vegetation removal on seedling growth was also determined, and microclimate conditions were monitored. Establishment limitations observed in the field were placed in context with the effects of soil properties observed in a parallel experiment. The seed addition experiment revealed reduced establishment with increasing elevation, suggesting that although establishment within the treeline ecotone is at least partially seed limited, other constraints are more important beyond the current treeline. The effects of herbivory and microsite availability significantly reduced seedling establishment but were less influential beyond the treeline. Microclimate monitoring revealed that establishment was negatively related to growing season temperatures and positively related to the duration of winter snow cover, counter to the conventional expectation that establishment is limited by low temperatures. Overall, it appears that seedling establishment beyond treeline is predominantly constrained by a combination of high soil surface temperatures during the growing season, reduced winter snowpack and unfavourable soil properties. Our study supports the assertion that seedling establishment in alpine treeline ecotones is simultaneously limited by various climatic and nonclimatic drivers. Together, these factors may limit future treeline advance in the Canadian Rocky Mountains and should be considered when assessing the potential for treeline advance in alpine systems elsewhere     

The Altitude of Alpine Treeline: A Bellwether of Climate Change Effects

Because of the characteristically low temperatures and ambient CO₂ concentrations associated with greater altitudes, mountain forests may be particularly sensitive to global warming and increased atmospheric CO₂. Moreover, the upper treeline is probably the most stressful location within these forests, possibly providing an early bellwether of forest response. Most treeline studies of the past century, as well as recently, have correlated temperatures with the altitudinal limits observed for treelines. In contrast, investigations on pre-establishment seedlings, the most vulnerable life stage of most tree species, are rare. There appears to be specific microclimatic factors dictated by wind and sky exposure that limit seedling survival, and also generate the distorted tree forms commonly observed at treeline. Seedling survival appears critical for creating the biological facilitation of microclimate at the community level which is necessary for the growth of seedlings to normal tree stature, forming new subalpine forest at a higher altitude.     

高山林线生态交错区木本植物幼苗分布特征、更新机制及其对气候变化的响应

木本植物幼苗是高山林线生态交错区的重要组成部分,其更新对气候变化背景下树线的移动至关重要.本研究通过对近几十年来全球范围内林线生态交错区的木本植物幼苗分布特征、更新机制及其对气候变化响应的研究总结得出:林线生态交错区木本植物幼苗的空间分布类型主要为渐变型和聚集型,且不同分布类型对树线动态的指示意义各异.在全球尺度上,其分布的海拔高限通常与生长季长度、均温和物种特性等有关,而在区域尺度上则多受降水影响.在幼苗更新初期,种源在很大程度上决定了种子的萌发及分布位置,之后微环境的促进作用为幼苗的定植提供庇护,提高其存活率,而在更新后期多种生物和非生物因素及其相互作用则非常关键.气候变暖促使林线生态交错区气温升高、降水充沛,有利于幼苗生长,使其向高海拔区域扩张而成为树线上移的先兆,但部分物种受遗传特性或适应策略影响,仅表现为密度增加,使树线保持相对稳定.未来应借助树轮、14C等精确定年技术,通过长期的野外定位观测和室内模拟,加强多时空尺度下林线幼苗的空间分布特征和更新机制研究,分析不同类型林线内木本植物幼苗的适应策略,预测气候变化背景下的树线动态,为山地生态系统恢复及保护提供科学依据.     

An experimental test of limits to tree establishment in Arctic tundra

1 Five treeline species had low seed germination rates and low survivorship and growth of seedlings when transplanted into Alaskan tundra. Seed germination of all species increased with experimental warming, suggesting that the present treeline may in part result from unsuccessful recruitment under cold conditions.
2 Growth, biomass and survivorship of seedlings of treeline species transplanted into tundra were largely unaffected by experimental warming. However, transplanted seedlings of three species ( Betula papyrifera , Picea glauca and Populus tremuloides ) grew more when below‐ground competition with the extant community was reduced. All three measures of transplant performance were greater in shrub tundra than in the less productive tussock or heath tundra. Establishment of trees in tundra may thus be prevented by low resource availability and competition.
3 Two species ( Alnus crispa and Populus balsamifera ) had low seed germination and survivorship of germinated seeds; transplants of these species did not respond to the manipulations and lost biomass following transplanting into tundra. Isolated populations of these two species north of the present treeline in arctic Alaska probably became established during mid‐Holocene warming rather than in recent times.
4 Of all the species studied here, Picea glauca was the most likely to invade intact upland tundra. Its seeds had the highest germination rates and it was the only species whose seedlings survived subsequently. Furthermore, transplanted seedlings of Picea glauca had relatively high survivorship and positive growth in tundra, especially in treatments that increased air temperature or nutrient availability, two factors likely to increase with climate warming.     

Diverging climate trends in Mongolian taiga forests influence growth and regeneration of Larix sibirica

Central and semiarid north-eastern Asia was subject to twentieth century warming far above the global average. Since forests of this region occur at their drought limit, they are particularly vulnerable to climate change. We studied the regional variations of temperature and precipitation trends and their effects on tree growth and forest regeneration in Mongolia. Tree-ring series from more than 2,300 trees of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) collected in four regions of Mongolia’s forest zone were analyzed and related to available weather data. Climate trends underlie a remarkable regional variation leading to contrasting responses of tree growth in taiga forests even within the same mountain system. Within a distance of a few hundred kilometers (140–490 km), areas with recently reduced growth and regeneration of larch alternated with regions where these parameters remained constant or even increased. Reduced productivity could be correlated with increasing summer temperatures and decreasing precipitation; improved growth conditions were found at increasing precipitation, but constant summer temperatures. An effect of increasing winter temperatures on tree-ring width or forest regeneration was not detectable. Since declines of productivity and regeneration are more widespread in the Mongolian taiga than the opposite trend, a net loss of forests is likely to occur in the future, as strong increases in temperature and regionally differing changes in precipitation are predicted for the twenty-first century.     

Reproduction as a bottleneck to treeline advance across the circumarctic forest tundra ecotone

The fundamental niche of many species is shifting with climate change, especially in sub‐arctic ecosystems with pronounced recent warming. Ongoing warming in sub‐arctic regions should lessen environmental constraints on tree growth and reproduction, leading to increased success of trees colonising tundra. Nevertheless, variable responses of treeline ecotones have been documented in association with warming temperatures. One explanation for time lags between increasingly favourable environmental conditions and treeline ecotone movement is reproductive limitations caused by low seed availability. Our objective was to assess the reproductive constraints of the dominant tree species at the treeline ecotone in the circumpolar north. We sampled reproductive structures of trees (cones and catkins) and stand attributes across circumarctic treeline ecotones. We used generalized linear mixed models to estimate the sensitivity of seed production and the availability of viable seed to regional climate, stand structure, and species‐specific characteristics. Both seed production and viability of available seed were strongly driven by specific, sequential seasonal climatic conditions, but in different ways. Seed production was greatest when growing seasons with more growing degree days coincided with years with high precipitation. Two consecutive years with more growing degree days and low precipitation resulted in low seed production. Seasonal climate effects on the viability of available seed depended on the physical characteristics of the reproductive structures. Large‐coned and ‐seeded species take more time to develop mature embryos and were therefore more sensitive to increases in growing degree days in the year of flowering and embryo development. Our findings suggest that both moisture stress and abbreviated growing seasons can have a notable negative influence on the production and viability of available seed at treeline. Our synthesis revealed that constraints on predispersal reproduction within the treeline ecotone might create a considerable time lag for range expansion of tree populations into tundra ecosystems.     

The Holocene treeline in the northern Andes (Ecuador): First evidence from soil charcoal

Indications for the speed and timing of past altitudinal treeline shifts are often contradictory. Partly, this may be due to interpretation difficulties of pollen records, which are generally regional rather than local proxies. We used pedoanthracology, the identification and dating of macroscopic soil charcoal, to study vegetation history around the treeline in the northern Ecuadorian Andes. Pedoanthracology offers a complementary method to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions by providing records with high spatial detail on a local scale. The modern vegetation is tussock grass páramo (tropical alpine vegetation) and upper montane cloud forest, and the treeline is located at ca. 3600 m. Charcoal was collected from soils in the páramo (at 3890 and 3810 m) and in the forest (at 3540 m), and represents a sequence for the entire Holocene.The presence of páramo taxa throughout all three soil profiles, especially in combination with the absence of forest taxa, shows that the treeline in the study area has moved up to its present position only late in the Holocene (after ca. 5850 cal years BP). The treeline may have been situated between 3600 m and 3800 m at some time after ca. 4900 cal years BP, or it may never have been higher than it is today. The presence of charcoal throughout the profiles also shows that fires have occurred in this area at least since the beginning of the Holocene.These results contradict interpretations of palaeological data from Colombia, which suggest a rapid treeline rise at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition. They also contradict the hypothesis that man-made fires have destroyed large extents of forest above the modern treeline. Instead, páramo fires have probably contributed to the slowness of treeline rise during the Holocene.     

Age-dependency,climate, and environmental controls of recent tree growth trends at subarctic and alpine treelines

Spatial and temporal variability in growth and climate response of trees at and near treeline was investigated in the western Mackenzie Mountains, Northwest Territories, and the Hudson Bay Lowlands of northern Manitoba. Residual ring width chronologies were constructed using cores extracted from 108 trees in the mountains and 170 from the lowlands, and compared to historical climate data. Growth of most trees exhibited significant correlations with summer and autumn temperatures, and the growth–climate relationship did not differ noticeably between trees at and distal to treeline. Most mountain trees had significant positive growth trends from 1851 to 2006 that corresponded with warming over the same period, while growth trends varied among sites and species in the lowlands. Regionally, growth of all species responded positively to warming during the 20th century with the exception of lowland Picea mariana, which exhibited little response. Growth response for most trees was age-dependent, with trees established after 1920 demonstrating improved growth and sensitivity to temperature than older individuals, and growth of most species since the 1990s was greater than any time during the last 250 years, particularly for lowland Larix laricina. This study suggests that site factors and tree age can be more important drivers of local-scale growth trends than regional climate at arctic treelines where temperature is often assumed to be the main constraint on tree growth.     

Recent climate warming forces contrasting growth responses of white spruce at treeline in Alaska through temperature thresholds

Northern and high‐latitude alpine treelines are generally thought to be limited by available warmth. Most studies of tree‐growth–climate interaction at treeline as well as climate reconstructions using dendrochronology report positive growth response of treeline trees to warmer temperatures. However, population‐wide responses of treeline trees to climate remain largely unexamined. We systematically sampled 1558 white spruce at 13 treeline sites in the Brooks Range and Alaska Range. Our findings of both positive and negative growth responses to climate warming at treeline challenge the widespread assumption that arctic treeline trees grow better with warming climate. High mean temperatures in July decreased the growth of 40% of white spruce at treeline areas in Alaska, whereas warm springs enhance growth of additional 36% of trees and 24% show no significant correlation with climate. Even though these opposing growth responses are present in all sampled sites, their relative proportion varies between sites and there is no overall clear relationship between growth response and landscape position within a site. Growth increases and decreases appear in our sample above specific temperature index values (temperature thresholds), which occurred more frequently in the late 20th century. Contrary to previous findings, temperature explained more variability in radial growth after 1950. Without accounting for these opposite responses and temperature thresholds, climate reconstructions based on ring width will miscalibrate past climate, and biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation models will overestimate carbon uptake and treeline advance under future warming scenarios.     

Effects of Climate, Site Conditions, and Seed Quality on Recent Treeline Dynamics in NW Russia: Permafrost and Lack of Reproductive Success Hamper Treeline Advance?

Treeline advance alters albedo and carbon storage and is an important feedback mechanism to the global climate system. Establishment of trees north of the treeline requires favorable climate, suitable microsites, and viable seeds. Here we studied the influence of climate and microsite conditions on tree and seedling growth at four transects from forest through woodland to tundra in NW Russia, and tested the viability of seeds from the region. General growth patterns and establishment periods of the treeline species Picea obovata are similar across the study sites suggesting a regional driver (for example, climate). Individuals established as early as the 1640s, but mainly between 1850 and 1880, and during a major and continental scale establishment wave in the 1950s and 1960s. No establishment occurred after 1982. Older trees mainly showed significant and stable positive relationships to growing year summer temperatures and significant stable negative correlations to previous year summer temperatures in nearly all plots. Trees from the last establishment wave showed more mixed responses, but current year summer temperature positively affected growth. Active layer depth was similar in all plots with trees but decreased sharply in treeless tundra. A major role for the lack of recent establishment seems to be very low seed viability, possibly combined with early strong fall frosts, which might have severely limited successful recruitment in the last decades of the twentieth century. For a successful establishment of P. obovata in tundra areas of NW Russia, permafrost degradation and (generally) warmer winters might be a prerequisite.     

Mosses modify effects of warmer and wetter conditions on tree seedlings at the alpine treeline

Climate warming enables tree seedling establishment beyond the current alpine treeline, but to achieve this, seedlings have to establish within existing tundra vegetation. In tundra, mosses are a prominent feature, known to regulate soil temperature and moisture through their physical structure and associated water retention capacity. Moss presence and species identity might therefore modify the impact of increases in temperature and precipitation on tree seedling establishment at the arctic‐alpine treeline. We followed Betula pubescens and Pinus sylvestris seedling survival and growth during three growing seasons in the field. Tree seedlings were transplanted along a natural precipitation gradient at the subarctic‐alpine treeline in northern Sweden, into plots dominated by each of three common moss species and exposed to combinations of moss removal and experimental warming by open‐top chambers (OTCs). Independent of climate, the presence of feather moss, but not Sphagnum, strongly supressed survival of both tree species. Positive effects of warming and precipitation on survival and growth of B. pubescens seedlings occurred in the absence of mosses and as expected, this was partly dependent on moss species. P. sylvestris survival was greatest at high precipitation, and this effect was more pronounced in Sphagnum than in feather moss plots irrespective of whether the mosses had been removed or not. Moss presence did not reduce the effects of OTCs on soil temperature. Mosses therefore modified seedling response to climate through other mechanisms, such as altered competition or nutrient availability. We conclude that both moss presence and species identity pose a strong control on seedling establishment at the alpine treeline, and that in some cases mosses weaken climate‐change effects on seedling establishment. Changes in moss abundance and species composition therefore have the potential to hamper treeline expansion induced by climate warming.     

Sensitivity and response of northern hemisphere altitudinal and polar treelines to environmental change at landscape and local scales

The sensitivity and response of northern hemisphere altitudinal and polar treelines to environmental change are increasingly discussed in terms of climate change, often forgetting that climate is only one aspect of environmental variation. As treeline heterogeneity increases from global to regional and smaller scales, assessment of treeline sensitivity at the landscape and local scales requires a more complex approach than at the global scale. The time scale (short‐, medium‐, long‐term) also plays an important role when considering treeline sensitivity. The sensitivity of the treeline to a changing environment varies among different types of treeline. Treelines controlled mainly by orographic influences are not very susceptible to the effects of warming climates. Greatest sensitivity can be expected in anthropogenic treelines after the cessation of human activity. However, tree invasion into former forested areas above the anthropogenic forest limit is controlled by site conditions, and in particular, by microclimates and soils. Apart from changes in tree physiognomy, the spontaneous advance of young growth of forest‐forming tree species into present treeless areas within the treeline ecotone and beyond the tree limit is considered to be the best indicator of treeline sensitivity to environmental change. The sensitivity of climatic treelines to climate warming varies both in the local and regional topographical conditions. Furthermore, treeline history and its after‐effects also play an important role. The sensitivity of treelines to changes in given factors (e.g. winter snow pack, soil moisture, temperature, evaporation, etc.) may vary among areas with differing climatic characteristics. In general, forest will not advance in a closed front but will follow sites that became more favourable to tree establishment under the changed climatic conditions.