蛋黄液中沙门氏菌温度预测模型的建立

为探究温度对沙门氏菌在蛋液中生长规律的影响,测定了在4、10、15、20、25、30、37和42℃等不同温度下沙门氏菌的生长曲线,利用Origin 8.0软件中非线性最小二乘法的原理进行修正Gompertz方程、修正Logistic方程的拟合以及DMFit软件进行Baranyi模型的拟合,研究结果表明修正Gompertz模型、修正Logistic模型和Baranyi模型均能得到较高的决定系数(0.99),选取决定系数相对较高的修正Logistic模型进行一级模型的建立。通过参数估计后利用Ratkowsky模型对最大比生长速率以及迟滞期进行二级模型的拟合,通过Baranyi模型得到的生长参数建立的二级模型拟合度高于其他模型,最大比生长速率以及迟滞期二级模型决定系数分别为0.978和0.866。经检验,研究建立的模型可用于10~42℃温度范围内蛋黄液中沙门氏菌的生长预测。     

鲜切生菜中沙门氏菌二级生长预测模型的建立

以鲜切生菜为研究对象,比较了修正的Gompertz、Gompertz、Logistic和MMF 4种一级模型对不同温度下鲜切生菜中沙门氏菌生长曲线的拟合情况,发现在36℃、20℃和10℃时,修正的Gompertz模型均为最佳的拟合模型,4℃时沙门氏菌生长受到抑制,对失活/存活曲线进行"镜像化"处理后发现拟合程度相对较低,相关系数为0.962 7,故未用于二级模型中;采用其他温度下的修正的Gompertz模型中的最大比生长速率作为二级模型的响应值,建立平方根二级模型;准确因子和偏差因子对二级模型的准确性验证结果表明,两者均接近1.0,说明所建立的二级模型用于预测鲜切生菜中沙门氏菌生长情况。本研究为鲜切生菜的微生物安全控制提供科学依据。     

熟鸡肉中金黄色葡萄球菌生长预测模型的建立

【目的】研究不同浓度和不同温度条件下金黄色葡萄球菌接种在熟鸡肉中的生长情况,比较3种常见预测模型拟合的准确性,选择最适合的预测模型建立一级和二级模型,为进一步探讨建立三级模型提供数据基础。【方法】测定浓度为102、103和104 CFU/g的金黄色葡萄球菌接种在15-36°C熟鸡肉中的生长数据,使用Matlab软件分别建立修正的Gompertz、Logistic和Baranyi模型,通过比较残差和拟合度(RSS、AIC、RSE)选择最优模型,并且拟合出生长参数(迟滞期、最大比生长速率和最大细胞密度),在此基础上通过响应面方程建立二级模型。最后对模型的可靠性进行了内部和外部实验验证。【结果】36°C和29°C条件下,修正的Gompertz模型最适合;22°C和15°C条件下,最适合模型按接种浓度依次为修正的Gompertz、Logistic和Baranyi模型,综合考虑,最优模型选择修正的Gompertz模型。通过计算预测标准差(%SEP)、平方根误差(RMSE)、准确性因子(Af)和偏差因子(Bf)对建立的二级模型进行数学检验,检验结果均在可接受范围内。【结论】用修正的Gompertz方程和响应面方程建立的一、二级预测模型可以为建立三级模型提供有效、精确的基础。     

卤鸡腿中大肠杆菌生长模型的研究

为探讨食源性大肠杆菌的生长特性,建立即食食品卤鸡腿中大肠杆菌生长模型,在20℃、25℃、30℃、35℃和40℃等不同温度下测定了大肠杆菌的生长状态。采用修正的Gompertz 方程拟合大肠杆菌的生长曲线,分析了大肠杆菌的生长参数。结果表明,修正的Gompertz函数能够很好地描述大肠杆菌在20 ℃、25 ℃、30 ℃、35 ℃和40℃贮藏条件下的生长动态（R2＞0.933 6)。应用平方根模型描述了温度对最大比生长速率(μm）和延滞时间(λ)参数的影响,结果表明,温度与最大比生长速率呈现较好的线性关系。此外,应用20 ℃、25℃、30 ℃、35 ℃和40℃条件下实际测得的数值与预测模型数据进行比较,验证了恒定温度下模型的有效性。所建立的预测模型能有效地预测大肠杆菌在卤鸡腿中的生长动态,为控制即食食品中大肠杆菌污染提供理论依据。     

馒头中金黄色葡萄球菌生长预测模型的建立

以传统面制品馒头作为研究对象,采用修正的Gompertz（SGompertz）和修正的Logistic（SLogistic）作为一级生长模型,应用Origin 9.0软件分别拟合馒头中金黄色葡萄球菌在10、15、25、30和37 ℃的生长情况,获得其最大比生长速率（μ_max）和迟滞期(λ)。采用平方根模型和二次多项式模型建立馒头中金黄色葡萄球菌的二级生长模型,并对该模型进行验证。结果表明,SGompertz模型能较好地拟合馒头中金黄色葡萄球菌的生长。以μ_max建立的平方根和二次多项式模型,R²分别为0.931 5和0.932 0,偏差因子（B_f）分别为1.123 2和1.050 1,准确因子（A_f）分别为1.221 0和1.190 2,表明采用μ_max进行拟合时,二次多项式模型的拟合效果较好;以迟滞期λ建立的平方根和二次多项式模型,R²分别为0.948 4和0.969 6,B_f分别为0.890 1和0.912 2,A_f分别为1.541 1和1.180 3,表明采用迟滞期λ进行拟合时,二次多项式模型的拟合效果较好。本研究可为馒头等传统面制品的定量风险评估提供参考。     

金针菇中单增李斯特菌生长预测模型的建立

为建立不同温度条件下金针菇中单增李斯特菌的生长模型,将单增李斯特菌接种到金针菇表面,并于不同温度下贮藏,获得其在10、l5、20、25和35℃下的生长数据,选用Baranyi模型进行拟合,建立初级生长模型,并拟合得到最大比生长速率。通过温度对初级模型中最大比生长速率的生长动力学拟合,分别建立Ratkowsky、Huang rate、Cardinal和Arrhenius-type二级生长模型,并进行数学检验。结果表明:Arrhenius-type模型呈现良好的线性关系,且评价结果优于其他模型,可作为次级模型对不同温度下金针菇中单增李斯特茵的生长动态进行预测。     

熟肉制品中金黄色葡萄球菌生长模型的建立

对不同温度下(10℃、15℃、25℃、30℃和37℃)熟肉制品中金黄色葡萄球菌的生长进行拟合。一级生长预测模型的建立采用SGompertz和Slogistic模型,由此获得恒定温度下的参数值(最大比生长速率:μ_(max)和延滞期:λ)。同时选用平方根模型(Square Root model)和二次多项式模型(Quadratic Polynomial model)对一级生长预测模型获得的μ_(max)和λ进行拟合,建立二级生长预测模型,并对模型的拟合度和可靠性进行评价。研究发现SGompertz模型可以更好地拟合熟肉制品中金黄色葡萄球菌在10℃~37℃下的生长;二次多项式模型是拟合温度与μ_(max)之间关系的最适模型;平方根模型是拟合温度与λ之间关系的最适模型。     

副溶血性弧菌温度-盐度双因素预测模型的建立

本文以副溶血性弧菌VP BJ1.1997为研究对象, 采用均匀设计试验方法, 建立并验证了温度范围为7°C~43°C, 盐度范围为0.5%~9.5%NaCl的生长动力学模型。结果表明, 所选一级模型的拟合效果优劣依次为Logistic方程>Gompertz方程>Linear方程, 以Logistic方程为一级模型计算生长参数; 二级模型采用平方根模型进行拟合, 得到模型相关系数r为0.9863, 最低生长温度T min为9.0506°C, 最高生长盐度为5.93%NaCl(对应最低生长水分活度Aw min     

高压脉冲电场对鲜切苹果中大肠杆菌杀菌效果的影响

为了研究高压脉冲电场对鲜切苹果中大肠杆菌的杀菌效果。分别对接种大肠杆菌的鲜切苹果使用不同电场强度(5 k V/cm,17.5 k V/cm,30 k V/cm,37.5 k V/cm,45 k V/cm)和处理时间(1 min,3 min,5 min,10 min,15 min,20 min,25 min)进行处理。并使用修正Gompertz模型拟合在25℃条件下生长曲线,HülshegerⅠ和Ⅱ模型建立大肠杆菌与电场强度和处理时间的致死动力学模型。结果发现,修正Gompertz模型、HülshegerⅠ和Ⅱ模型拟合函数的决定系数均大于0.990 1,均方根误差均小于0.223 5,且具有统计学意义(p0.01);结果表明,所建立的模型拟合度良好,能够较好地反映PEF处理后大肠杆菌在鲜切苹果表面的生长;且随着高压脉冲电场的电场强度和处理时间的增加,大肠杆菌的残存率越低。本试验建立的模型能够作为高压脉冲电场不同条件处理对鲜切苹果中大肠杆菌杀菌效果的参考依据。     

Richards方程的数学属性及其在兽类生长过程中的应用

通过对Richards方程数学属性的分析表明 ,该方程具有变动的拐点值 ,因而在描绘兽类多种多样的生长过程时具有良好的可塑性。依据其方程参数n取值的不同 ,Richards方程包含了Spillman ,Logistic,Gompertz以及Bertalanffy方程。为了评估Richards方程对兽类生长过程的拟合优度 ,作者引用 1 0组哺乳动物兽类生长数据 ,将它与一些经典的生长模型如Spillman ,Logistic,Gompertz以及Bertalanffy方程共同进行了拟合比较。结果表明 ,Richards方程具有良好的拟合优度 ,适于描绘多种多样的兽类生长模式。     

Determination of the shelf life of sliced cooked ham based on the growth of lactic acid bacteria in different steps of the chain

Aims: Development of a predictive model for the determination of the shelf life of modified atmosphere‐packed (MAP) cooked sliced ham in each step of the cold chain. Methods and Results: The growth of lactic acid bacteria (LAB), as well as the development of the total viable count and changes of sensory and pH value parameters in MAP cooked sliced ham, stored under different constant temperature conditions from 2 to 15°C was investigated. As a result of the measurements, the end of the shelf life could be considered as the time when LAB reach more than 7 log₁₀ CFU g^?1. Different primary and secondary models were tested and analysed to find the best way to calculate the shelf life. For primary modelling, the modified Gompertz Function and the modified Logistic Function were compared. There was no substantial difference between either model. The effect of temperature on the growth rate was modelled by using the Arrhenius and the Square root model, whereas the Arrhenius equation gave a better result. A combination of the primary and secondary model was used for shelf‐life prediction under dynamic conditions. This combination showed the best prediction of microbial counts using the modified Logistic model and the Arrhenius equation. Conclusions: With the developed model, it is possible to predict the shelf life of MAP cooked sliced ham based on the growth of LAB under different temperature conditions. Significance and Impact of the Study: The developed model can be used to calculate the remaining shelf life in different steps of the chain. Thus, it can deliver an important contribution to improve food quality by optimizing the storage management.     

Incorporating an Asymptotic Parameter into the Weibull Model to Describe Plant Disease Progress

The Weibull model is a flexible growth model that describes both general population growth and plant disease progress. However, lack of an asymptotic parameter has limited its wider application. In the present study, an asymptotic parameter K was introduced into the original Weibull model, written as; y = K {1 − exp [− ( t − a ) ^c ]}, in which a , b , c and K are location, scale, shape, and asymptotic parameters, respectively, y is the proportion of disease and t is time. A wide range of simulated disease progress data sets were generated using logistic, Gompertz and monomolecular models by specifying different parameter values, and fitted to both original and modified Weibull models. The modified model provided statistically better fits for all data than the original model. The modified model can thus improve the curve-fitting ability of the original model which often failed to converge, especially when the asymptote is less than 1.0. Actual disease progress data on wheat leaf rust and tomato root rot with different asymptotic values were also used to compare the original and modified Weibull models. The modified model provided a statistically better fit than the original model, and model estimates of asymptotic parameter K were nearly identical to the actual disease maxima reflecting the characteristics of the host-pathosystem. Comparison of logistic, Gompertz, and Weibull models including parameter K by fitting to the observed data on wheat leaf rust and tomato root rot revealed the applicability of the modified Weibull model, which in a majority of cases provided a statistically superior fit.     

广义Schumacher模型的改进及其应用

通过对前人提出的生长方程的具体分析,提出了一种改进的Schumacher生长方程．该模型包含了Gompenz函数、Schumacher方程及广义Schumacher方程,具有很强的自适应性和实用性．采用遗传算法。利用该模型对珍稀植物长苞铁杉和侧柏生长资料分别进行了拟合．结果表明,改进的Schumacher方程的拟合精度明显优于Schumache,方程和广义Schumacher方程,也优于经典的Logistic模型和李新运等自适应模型。可以在林木生长动态模拟及种群增长动态研究中广泛应用．     

Modeling of pathogen survival during simulated gastric digestion

The objective of the present study was to develop a mathematical model of pathogenic bacterial inactivation kinetics in a gastric environment in order to further understand a part of the infectious dose-response mechanism. The major bacterial pathogens Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Salmonella spp. were examined by using simulated gastric fluid adjusted to various pH values. To correspond to the various pHs in a stomach during digestion, a modified logistic differential equation model and the Weibull differential equation model were examined. The specific inactivation rate for each pathogen was successfully described by a square-root model as a function of pH. The square-root models were combined with the modified logistic differential equation to obtain a complete inactivation curve. Both the modified logistic and Weibull models provided a highly accurate fitting of the static pH conditions for every pathogen. However, while the residuals plots of the modified logistic model indicated no systematic bias and/or regional prediction problems, the residuals plots of the Weibull model showed a systematic bias. The modified logistic model appropriately predicted the pathogen behavior in the simulated gastric digestion process with actual food, including cut lettuce, minced tuna, hamburger, and scrambled egg. Although the developed model enabled us to predict pathogen inactivation during gastric digestion, its results also suggested that the ingested bacteria in the stomach would barely be inactivated in the real digestion process. The results of this study will provide important information on a part of the dose-response mechanism of bacterial pathogens.     

Model for combined effect of temperature and salt concentration/water activity on the growth rate of Staphylococcus xylosus

The combined effect of temperature and NaCl concentration/water activity on the growth rate of a strain of halotolerant Staphylococcus is described by the square-root models which had been used previously to model temperature dependence only. The model square root r = b(T-T min) is shown to be a special case of the B?lehrádek temperature function which is given by r = a(T-alpha)d. The constant alpha is the socalled 'biological zero' and equivalent to T min in the square-root models. This and the exponent d = 2 were unaffected by changing NaCl concentration/water activity. The B?lehrádek-type equations are preferable to the Arrhenius equation in that their parameters do not change with temperature. The constancy of T min allows derivation of a simple expression relating growth rate of strain CM21/3 to temperature and salt concentration/water activity within the range of linear response to temperature predicted by the square-root model.     

Kinetics and modeling of temperature effects on batch xanthan gum fermentation

Batch fermentation kinetics of xanthan gum production from glucose by Xanthomonas campestris at temperatures between 22 degrees C and 35 degrees C were studied to evaluate temperature effects on cell growth and xanthan formation. These batch xanthan fermentations were modeled by the logistic equation for cell growth, the Luedeking-Piret equation for xanthan production, and a modified Luedeking-Piret equation for glucose consumption. Temperature dependence of the parameters in this model was evaluated. Growth-associated rate constants increased to a maximum at approximately 30 degrees C and then decreased to zero at approximately 35 degrees C. This temperature effect can be modeled using a square-root model. On the contrary, non-growth-associated rate constants increased with increasing temperature, following the Arrhenius relationship, in the entire temperature range studied. The model developed in this work fits the experimental data very well and can be used in a simulation study. However, due to the empirical nature of the model, the parameter values need to be reevaluated if the model is to be applied to different growth conditions.     

Modelling the growth of Trichoderma virens with limited sampling of digital images

AIMS: Using limited digital image sampling, a model of fungal growth in soil that considers both hyphal production and lysis was constructed for two strains of Trichoderma virens over a range of four temperatures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A growth model was developed by fitting the radial cross sectional data with a modified form of the Ratkowsky equation to determine maximum growth rate and a modified Arrhenius equation to determine maximal rate of decrease in area covered by mycelia. The parameters obtained from a combined equation were then verified by using the data obtained from the whole colony to determine the appropriateness of the model. CONCLUSIONS: Using a limited data set and a combination of the Ratkowsky and Arrhenius equations, the mycelial coverage of the T. virens colony was determined, relating microscopic hyphal growth to macroscopic colony growth. This model was sufficiently robust to predict growth across four temperatures for a genetically modified and wild-type strain of T. virens. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF STUDY: By using simple assumptions for the increase and eventual decline in fungal growth on a resource-limited medium, this model constructs an initial framework onto which additional parameters such as nutrient consumption could be incorporated for prediction of fungal growth.     

A New Secondary Model Developed for the Growth Rate of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Escherichia coli</Emphasis> O157:H7 in Broth

This study was attempted to develop a new exponential sum model to describe the effect of temperature on growth rate (GR) of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in broth. The growth rates of E. coli O157:H7 at different storage temperatures (4, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35°C) estimated by fitting with the modified Gompertz model were used to develop secondary models such as square root model, Ratkowsky model and exponential sum model. Measures of coefficient of determination (R ²), root mean square error (RMSE) and the sum of squares due to error (SSE) were employed to compare the performances of these three secondary models. Based on these criteria, the developed exponential sum model showed the better goodness-of-fit and performance.     

Effect of Packaging under Carbon Dioxide, Nitrogen or Air on the Microbial Flora of Pork Stored at 4°C

Changes in the microbial flora of pork packed in laminated plastic bags and stored at 4 °C were studied in an initial atmosphere of carbon dioxide, nitrogen or air. The time needed for the total aerobic count at 28 °C to reach 5 × 10⁶ organisms/cm² was about 7 times longer in carbon dioxide than in air, whilst in nitrogen it was about twice as long.
The predominant organisms on fresh pork taken directly from the processing line were: Acinetobacter calcoaceticus , non-fluorescent Pseudomonas spp. and Flavobacterium spp. After storage in air for 7 d, more than 90% of the flora consisted of non-fluorescent Pseudomonas spp. After storage in nitrogen for 10 d, 70% of the flora consisted of non-fluorescent Pseudomonas spp. with lower levels of fluorescent Pseudomonas spp., Kurthia zopfii, Aeromonas hydrophila and Lactobacillus plantarum. The non-fluorescent Pseudomonas spp. could be divided into three different groups, on proteolytic and lipolytic ability; the distribution of the groups was markedly different between pork loins stored in air and nitrogen.
On pork stored in carbon dioxide for 21 d the flora consisted of L. plantarum together with lower levels of heterofermentative lactic acid bacteria. When the storage time in carbon doxide was prolonged to 35 d, the proportion of heterofermentative lactic acid bacteria increased to about 50% of the flora.