Predicting the unexpected: using a qualitative model of a New Zealand dryland ecosystem to anticipate pest management outcomes

Pest management is expensive and there is often uncertainty about the benefits for the resources being protected. There can also be unintended consequences for other parts of the ecosystem, especially in complex food webs. In making decisions managers generally have to rely on qualitative information collected in a piecemeal fashion. A method to assist decision making is a qualitative modelling approach using fuzzy cognitive maps, a directed graphical model related to neural networks that can take account of interactions between pests and conservation assets in complex food webs. Using all available information on relationships between native and exotic resources and consumers, we generated hypotheses about potential consequences of single‐species and multi‐species pest control on the long‐term equilibrium abundances of other biotic components of an ecosystem. We applied the model to a dryland ecosystem in New Zealand because we had good information on its trophic structure, but the information on the strength of species interactions was imprecise. Our model suggested that pest control is unlikely to significantly boost native invertebrates and lizards in this ecosystem, suggesting that other forms of management may be required for these groups. Most of the pest control regimes tested resulted in greater abundances of at least one other pest species, which could potentially lead to other management problems. Some of the predictions were unexpected, such as more birds resulting from possum and mouse control. We also modelled the effects of an increase in invasive rabbits, which led to unexpected declines of stoats, weasels, mice and possums. These unexpected outcomes resulted from complex indirect pathways in the food web. Fuzzy cognitive maps allow rapid construction of prototype models of complex food webs using a wide range of data and expert opinion. Their utility lies in providing direction for future monitoring efforts and generating hypotheses that can be tested with field experiments.     

Food web structure and biocontrol in a four-trophic level system across a landscape complexity gradient

Decline in landscape complexity owing to agricultural intensification may affect biodiversity, food web complexity and associated ecological processes such as biological control, but such relationships are poorly understood. Here, we analysed food webs of cereal aphids, their primary parasitoids and hyperparasitoids in 18 agricultural landscapes differing in structural complexity (42-93% arable land). Despite little variation in the richness of each trophic group, we found considerable changes in trophic link properties across the landscape complexity gradient. Unexpectedly, aphid-parasitoid food webs exhibited a lower complexity (lower linkage density, interaction diversity and generality) in structurally complex landscapes, which was related to the dominance of one aphid species in complex landscapes. Nevertheless, primary parasitism, as well as hyperparasitism, was higher in complex landscapes, with primary parasitism reaching levels for potentially successful biological control. In conclusion, landscape complexity appeared to foster higher parasitism rates, but simpler food webs, thereby casting doubt on the general importance of food web complexity for ecosystem functioning.     

A size-constrained feeding-niche model distinguishes predation patterns between aquatic and terrestrial food webs

Understanding the formation of feeding links provides insights into processes underlying food webs. Generally, predators feed on prey within a certain body-size range, but a systematic quantification of such feeding niches is lacking. We developed a size-constrained feeding-niche (SCFN) model and parameterized it with information on both realized and non-realized feeding links in 72 aquatic and 65 terrestrial food webs. Our analyses revealed profound differences in feeding niches between aquatic and terrestrial predators and variation along a temperature gradient. Specifically, the predator–prey body-size ratio and the range in prey sizes increase with the size of aquatic predators, whereas they are nearly constant across gradients in terrestrial predator size. Overall, our SCFN model well reproduces the feeding relationships and predation architecture across 137 natural food webs (including 3878 species and 136,839 realized links). Our results illuminate the organisation of natural food webs and enables novel trait-based and environment-explicit modelling approaches.     

Local stability properties of complex,species‐rich soil food webs with functional block structure

Ecologists have long debated the properties that confer stability to complex, species‐rich ecological networks. Species‐level soil food webs are large and structured networks of central importance to ecosystem functioning. Here, we conducted an analysis of the stability properties of an up‐to‐date set of theoretical soil food web models that account both for realistic levels of species richness and the most recent views on the topological structure (who is connected to whom) of these food webs. The stability of the network was best explained by two factors: strong correlations between interaction strengths and the blocked, nonrandom trophic structure of the web. These two factors could stabilize our model food webs even at the high levels of species richness that are typically found in soil, and that would make random systems very unstable. Also, the stability of our soil food webs is well‐approximated by the cascade model. This result suggests that stability could emerge from the hierarchical structure of the functional organization of the web. Our study shows that under the assumption of equilibrium and small perturbations, theoretical soil food webs possess a topological structure that allows them to be complex yet more locally stable than their random counterpart. In particular, results strongly support the general hypothesis that the stability of rich and complex soil food webs is mostly driven by correlations in interaction strength and the organization of the soil food web into functional groups. The implication is that in real‐world food web, any force disrupting the functional structure and distribution pattern of interaction strengths (i.e., energy fluxes) of the soil food webs will destabilize the dynamics of the system, leading to species extinction and major changes in the relative abundances of species.     

Understorey environments influence functional diversity in tank‐bromeliad ecosystems

1. A substantial fraction of the freshwater available in neotropical forests is impounded within the rosettes of bromeliads that form aquatic islands in a terrestrial matrix. The ecosystem functioning of bromeliads is known to be influenced by the composition of the contained community but it is not clear whether bromeliad food webs remain functionally similar against a background of variation in the understorey environment. 2. We considered a broad range of environmental conditions, including incident light and incoming litter, and quantified the distribution of a very wide range of freshwater organisms (from viruses to macroinvertebrates) to determine the factors that influence the functional structure of bromeliad food webs in samples taken from 171 tank‐bromeliads. 3. We observed a gradient of detritus‐based to algal‐based food webs from the understorey to the overstorey. Algae, rotifers and collector and predatory invertebrates dominated bromeliad food webs in exposed areas, whereas filter‐feeding insects had their highest densities in shaded forest areas. Viruses, bacteria and fungi showed no clear density patterns. Detritus decomposition is mainly due to microbial activity in understorey bromeliads where filter feeders are the main consumers of microbial and particulate organic matter (POM). Algal biomass may exceed bacterial biomass in sun‐exposed bromeliads where amounts of detritus were lower but functional diversity was highest. 4. Our results provide evidence that tank‐bromeliads, which grow in a broad range of ecological conditions, promote aquatic food web diversity in neotropical forests. Moreover, although bromeliad ecosystems have been categorised as detritus‐based systems in the literature, we show that algal production can support a non‐detrital food web in these systems.     

Scaling from individuals to networks in food webs

1.  Food webs, the set of predator–prey interactions in an ecosystem, are a prototypical complex system. Much research to date has concentrated on the use of models to identify and explain the key structural features which characterize food webs.
2.  These models often fall into two general categories: (i) phenomenological models which are built upon a set of heuristic rules in order to explain some empirical observation and (ii) population-level models in which interactions between individuals result in emergent properties for the food web. Both types of models have helped to uncover how food-web structure is a product of factors such as foraging behaviour, prey selection and species' body sizes.
3.  Historically, the two types of models have followed rather different approaches to the problem. Despite the apparent differences, the overlap between the two styles of models is substantial. Examples are highlighted here.
4.  By paying greater attention to both the similarities and differences between the two, we will be better able to demonstrate the ecological insights offered by phenomenological models. This will help us, for example, design experiments which could validate or refute underlying assumptions of the models. By linking models to data, scaling from individuals to networks, we will be closer to understanding the true origins of food-web structure.     

HSS revisited: multi‐channel processes mediate trophic control across a productivity gradient

Classical food web theory holds that energy channels are regulated by top‐down control with increasing productivity, arising from within‐channel processes. However, these hypotheses do not consider the existence of parallel energy channels linked by shared resource pools and which can fuel generalist predators, imposing trophic control arising from multi‐channel processes. Using 23 large marine food webs, we show that food web responses to increasing productivity are consistent with the apparent trophic cascade hypothesis (ATCH) – with rising productivity predators derive an increasing fraction of their diet from increasingly productive bottom‐up controlled detritus channels, thereby subsidising predator biomass, and in turn strengthening top‐down control in parallel grazing channels. These results testify to a fundamental role of detritus channels specifically and multi‐channel processes in general in mediating food web response to productivity and demonstrate that the ATCH provides an alternative explanation for classical predictions of top‐down control.     

食物网稳定性机制研究进展:一个基于等级系统的框架

食物网理论沟通了群落生态学和生态系统生态学，将生物多样性和生态系统功能的研究统一起来，是理解生态系统运作机制的关键。自从1973年Robert May的经典研究引发著名的"复杂性-稳定性"论辩之后，人们认识到食物网的稳定性是其结构维持、功能发挥和动态演化的一个重要前提，并开始了对食物网稳定性机制的探索。早期研究主要关注只包含拓扑关系的定性食物网，但后来人们逐渐认识到相互作用强度的重要性，并提出了诸如自限性、弱相互作用、适应性捕食等一系列机制。本文系统梳理了过往研究中模块层面的各类稳定性机制和全网层面对各模块的整合机制，从而清晰地展示了"模块-全网"双层框架的全貌。通过在其基础上的扩展，进而提出了一个基于等级系统的食物网稳定性框架，并从动力学和能量学角度，对各层级内部的稳定性机制以及层级之间的关系进行了探讨，以期为建立普适的食物网稳定性理论提供一些思路。未来的研究方向包括：①将稳定性机制的研究从食物网扩展到更一般的生态网络；②综合考虑生物物理要素、动力学稳定性、系统对能流功率的追求、环境的平稳程度、演化历史等影响因素，从而得到关于食物网结构和动态的更为深刻的认识。     

Accurate estimation of microbial loop processes and rates

Our conceptual models of microbial food webs in aquatic ecosystems provide a unifying hypothesis for the design and conduct of field studies. Our ability to provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses, however, relies to a large extent on the availability of precise and accurate methods. Although considerable progress has been made over the past two decades, unambiguous resolution of in situ microbial rates and processes will probably require improved or novel methodologies.     

Evidence for the existence of a robust pattern of prey selection in food webs

Food webs aim to provide a thorough representation of the trophic interactions found in an ecosystem. The complexity of empirical food webs, however, is leading many ecologists to focus dynamic ecosystem studies on smaller microcosm or mesocosm studies based upon community modules, which comprise three to five species and the interactions likely to have ecological relevance. We provide here a structural counterpart to community modules. We investigate food-web 'motifs' which are n-species connected subgraphs found within the food web. Remarkably, we find that the over- and under-representation of three-species motifs in empirical food webs can be understood through comparison to a static food-web model, the niche model. Our result conclusively demonstrates that predation upon species with some 'characteristic' niche value is the prey selection mechanism consistent with the structural properties of empirical food webs.     

Simple models combining competition,defence and resource availability have broad implications in pelagic microbial food webs

In food webs, interactions between competition and defence control the partitioning of limiting resources. As a result, simple models of these interactions contain links between biogeochemistry, diversity, food web structure and ecosystem function. Working at hierarchical levels, these mechanisms also produce self‐similarity and therefore suggest how complexity can be generated from repeated application of simple underlying principles. Reviewing theoretical and experimental literature relevant to the marine photic zone, we argue that there is a wide spectrum of phenomena, including single cell activity of prokaryotes, microbial biodiversity at different levels of resolution, ecosystem functioning, regional biogeochemical features and evolution at different timescales; that all can be understood as variations over a common principle, summarised in what has been termed the ‘Killing‐the‐Winner’ (KtW) motif. Considering food webs as assemblages of such motifs may thus allow for a more integrated approach to aquatic microbial ecology.     

Biodiversity maintenance in food webs with regulatory environmental feedbacks

Although the food web is one of the most fundamental and oldest concepts in ecology, elucidating the strategies and structures by which natural communities of species persist remains a challenge to empirical and theoretical ecologists. We show that simple regulatory feedbacks between autotrophs and their environment when embedded within complex and realistic food-web models enhance biodiversity. The food webs are generated through the niche-model algorithm and coupled with predator-prey dynamics, with and without environmental feedbacks at the autotroph level. With high probability and especially at lower, more realistic connectance levels, regulatory environmental feedbacks result in fewer species extinctions, that is, in increased species persistence. These same feedback couplings, however, also sensitize food webs to environmental stresses leading to abrupt collapses in biodiversity with increased forcing. Feedback interactions between species and their material environments anchor food-web persistence, adding another dimension to biodiversity conservation. We suggest that the regulatory features of two natural systems, deep-sea tubeworms with their microbial consortia and a soil ecosystem manifesting adaptive homeostatic changes, can be embedded within niche-model food-web dynamics.     

Significance of predation by protists in aquatic microbial food webs

Predation in aquatic microbial food webs is dominated by phagotrophic protists, yet these microorganisms are still understudied compared to bacteria and phytoplankton. In pelagic ecosystems, predaceous protists are ubiquitous, range in size from 2 μm flagellates to >100 μm ciliates and dinoflagellates, and exhibit a wide array of feeding strategies. Their trophic states run the gamut from strictly phagotrophic, to mixotrophic: partly autotrophic and partly phagotrophic, to primarily autotrophic but capable of phagotrophy. Protists are a major source of mortality for both heterotrophic and autotrophic bacteria. They compete with herbivorous meso- and macro-zooplankton for all size classes of phytoplankton. Protist grazing may affect the rate of organic sinking flux from the euphotic zone. Protist excretions are an important source of remineralized nutrients, and of colloidal and dissolved trace metals such as iron, in aquatic systems. Work on predation by protists is being facilitated by methodological advances, e.g., molecular genetic analysis of protistan diversity and application of flow cytometry to study population growth and feeding rates. Examples of new research areas are studies of impact of protistan predation on the community structure of prey assemblages and of chemical communication between predator and prey in microbial food webs. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate change impacts in multispecies systems: drought alters food web size structure in a field experiment

Experimental data from intergenerational field manipulations of entire food webs are scarce, yet such approaches are essential for gauging impacts of environmental change in natural systems. We imposed 2 years of intermittent drought on stream channels in a replicated field trial, to measure food web responses to simulated climate change. Drought triggered widespread losses of species and links, with larger taxa and those that were rare for their size, many of which were predatory, being especially vulnerable. Many network properties, including size–scaling relationships within food chains, changed in response to drought. Other properties, such as connectance, were unaffected. These findings highlight the need for detailed experimental data from different organizational levels, from pairwise links to the entire food web. The loss of not only large species, but also those that were rare for their size, provides a newly refined way to gauge likely impacts that may be applied more generally to other systems and/or impacts.     

Food webs in river networks

Food webs and river drainages are both hierarchical networks and complex adaptive systems. How does living within the second affect the first? Longitudinal gradients in productivity, disturbance regimes and habitat structure down rivers have long interested ecologists, but their effects on food web structure and dynamics are just beginning to be explored. Even less is known about how network structure per se influences river and riparian food webs and their members. We offer some preliminary observations and hypotheses about these interactions, emphasizing observations on upstream–downstream changes in food web structure and controls, and introducing some ideas and predictions about the unexplored question of food web responses to some of the network properties of river drainages.     

Decades of dietary data demonstrate regional food web structures in the Southern Ocean

Understanding regional‐scale food web structure in the Southern Ocean is critical to informing fisheries management and assessments of climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems and ecosystem services. Historically, a large component of Southern Ocean ecosystem research has focused on Antarctic krill, which provide a short, highly efficient food chain, linking primary producers to higher trophic levels. Over the last 15 years, the presence of alternative energy pathways has been identified and hypotheses on their relative importance in different regions raised. Using the largest circumpolar dietary database ever compiled, we tested these hypotheses using an empirical circumpolar comparison of food webs across the four major regions/sectors of the Southern Ocean (defined as south of 40°S) within the austral summer period. We used network analyses and generalizations of taxonomic food web structure to confirm that while Antarctic krill are dominant as the mid‐trophic level for the Atlantic and East Pacific food webs (including the Scotia Arc and Western Antarctic Peninsula), mesopelagic fish and other krill species are dominant contributors to predator diets in the Indian and West Pacific regions (East Antarctica and the Ross Sea). We also highlight how tracking data and habitat modeling for mobile top predators in the Southern Ocean show that these species integrate food webs over large regional scales. Our study provides a quantitative assessment, based on field observations, of the degree of regional differentiation in Southern Ocean food webs and the relative importance of alternative energy pathways between regions.     

Biodiversity lessens the risk of cascading extinction in model food webs

Due to the complex interactions between species in food webs, the extinction of one species could lead to a cascade of further extinctions and hence cause dramatic changes in species composition and ecosystem processes. We found that the risk of additional species extinction, following the loss of one species in model food webs, decreases with the number of species per functional group. For a given number of species per functional group, the risk of further extinctions is highest when an autotroph is removed and lowest when a top predator is removed. In addition, stability decreases when the distribution of interaction strengths in the webs is changed from equal to skew (few strong and many weak links). We also found that omnivory appears to stabilize model food webs. Our results indicate that high biodiversity may serve as an insurance against radical ecosystem changes.     

The effects of mixotrophy on the stability and dynamics of a simple planktonic food web model

Recognition of the microbial loop as an important part of aquatic ecosystems disrupted the notion of simple linear food chains. However, current research suggests that even the microbial loop paradigm is a gross simplification of microbial interactions due to the presence of mixotrophs-organisms that both photosynthesize and graze. We present a simple food web model with four trophic species, three of them arranged in a food chain (nutrients-autotrophs-herbivores) and the fourth as a mixotroph with links to both the nutrients and the autotrophs. This model is used to study the general implications of inclusion of the mixotrophic link in microbial food webs and the specific predictions for a parameterization that describes open ocean mixed layer plankton dynamics. The analysis indicates that the system parameters reside in a region of the parameter space where the dynamics converge to a stable equilibrium rather than displaying periodic or chaotic solutions. However, convergence requires weeks to months, suggesting that the system would never reach equilibrium in the ocean due to alteration of the physical forcing regime. Most importantly, the mixotrophic grazing link seems to stabilize the system in this region of the parameter space, particularly when nutrient recycling feedback loops are included.     

Top‐down and bottom‐up diversity cascades in detrital vs. living food webs

Apex predators and plant resources are both critical for maintaining diversity in biotic communities, but the indirect (‘cascading’) effects of top‐down and bottom‐up forces on diversity at different trophic levels are not well resolved in terrestrial systems. Manipulations of predators or resources can cause direct changes of diversity at one trophic level, which in turn can affect diversity at other trophic levels. The indirect diversity effects of resource and consumer variation should be strongest in aquatic systems, moderate in terrestrial systems, and weakest in decomposer food webs. We measured effects of top predators and plant resources on the diversity of endophytic animals in an understorey shrub Piper cenocladum (Piperaceae). Predators and resource availability had significant direct and indirect effects on the diversity of the endophytic animal community, but the effects were not interactive, nor were they consistent between living vs. detrital food webs. The addition of fourth trophic level beetle predators increased diversity of consumers supported by living plant tissue, whereas balanced plant resources (light and nutrients) increased the diversity of primary through tertiary consumers in the detrital resources food web. These results support the hypotheses that top‐down and bottom‐up diversity cascades occur in terrestrial systems, and that diversity is affected by different factors in living vs. detrital food webs.