我国天然林保护工程对区域经济与生态效益的影响——以四川省峨边县和盐边县为例

通过抽样技术和实地调研 ,获得样本点 10 a的资源环境与社会经济方面的数据资料 ,从长时间尺度上对四川省峨边县和盐边县天然林保护工程的生态、社会与经济影响进行评价 ,并对经济成本与生态效益进行比较博弈分析。结果表明 ,天然林保护工程带来了显著的生态、社会与经济影响 ,给各利益主体带来了不同的代价与收益。当生态环境改善到一定程度以后 ,获得经济与生态的双赢是可行的。对于各利益主体承担的经济代价与获得的收益之间的不平衡 ,可以采取相应的政策措施进行补偿 ,实现帕累托改进     

6种沙门菌单克隆抗体的制备和效能评价

目的：制备稳定、特异、高亲和性的分别针对甲型副伤寒沙门菌、乙型副伤寒沙门菌、丙型副伤寒沙门菌、肠炎沙门菌、伤寒沙门菌和猪霍乱沙门菌的单克隆抗体。方法：用甲醛灭活的菌液抗原免疫BALB／c小鼠,取脾细胞与SP2／0骨髓瘤细胞融合;用灭活的菌液包被酶标板,ELISA筛选阳性克隆株,建立细胞系;选取高效分泌杂交瘤细胞,常规制备腹水并纯化,进行单抗特异性与亲和性评价。结果：筛选得到分泌6种沙门菌相应单克隆抗体的杂交瘤细胞株,获得高亲和性单抗;所有单抗与大部分病原菌（包括7种沙门菌、3株志贺菌、2株李斯特菌、4株致病性大肠杆菌、2株霍乱弧菌）无交叉反应,但由于同类型O抗原的广泛分布,抗乙型副伤寒沙门菌单抗与鼠伤寒沙门菌、抗伤寒沙门菌单抗与肠炎沙门菌有明显的交叉反应。结论：沙门菌单抗的制备,为感染性腹泻的监测、诊断奠定了基础。     

Science in Risk Assessment and Policy (SciRAP): An Online Resource for Evaluating and Reporting In Vivo (Eco)Toxicity Studies

(Eco)toxicity studies conducted according to internationally standardized test guidelines are often considered reliable by default and preferred as key evidence in regulatory risk assessment. At the same time regulatory agencies emphasize the use of all relevant (eco)toxicity data in the risk assessment process, including non-standard studies. However, there is a need to facilitate the use of such studies in regulatory risk assessment. Therefore, we propose a framework that facilitates a systematic and transparent evaluation of the reliability and relevance of (eco)toxicity in vivo studies for health and environmental risk assessment. The framework includes specific criteria to guide study evaluation, as well as a color-coding tool developed to aid the application of these criteria. In addition we provide guidance intended for researchers on how to report non-standard studies to ensure that they meet regulatory requirements. The intention of the evaluating and reporting criteria is to increase the usability of all relevant data that may fill information gaps in chemical risk assessments. The framework is publically available online, free of charge, at the Science in Risk Assessment and Policy (SciRAP) website: www.scirap.org. The aim of this article is to present the framework and resources available at the SciRAP website.     

城市生态化水平评价方法及其应用

从城市生态系统的5个能力支持子系统方面建立城市生态化综合评价的基础变量指标体系,提出了动态筛选核心评价指标的技术方法;定义城市生态化指数(UEI)概念及其计算方法,设计城市生态化状态识辨盒状图,构建了城市生态化水平定量分析的理论框架。并对上海城市生态化状态进行定量评价,指出上海当前阶段城市生态化水平仍处在初级阶段,生态化发展正面临整体性、结构性双重挑战。     

公立医院创新能力评价模型构建研究

构建能够反映公立医院创新能力的评价模型，评价公立医院的发展创新能力，维持和扩大公立医院发展创新能力与竞争对手之间的领先距离。专家咨询结果具有可靠性，所构建的公立医院创新能力评价模型为综合评价公立医院创新能力提供了内容依据和量化标准，为公立医院提升和培育创新能力提供了科学依据。     

“满意度”与可持续发展评价研究进展

可持续发展是全人类共同追求并且不断探索完善的一种社会经济发展模式。各国研究机构和学者针对如何评价城市与区域可持续发展水平,提出了大量的分析方法、评价指标和研究框架。分析了"满意度"在城市与区域可持续发展评价中应用的发展历程、存在问题和研究展望。研究认为,在生态文明建设背景下,城市与区域可持续发展评价需从可持续发展的核心内涵出发,结合主观与客观的方法对指标体系进行判定,在充分利用客观信息提高城市可持续发展能力的同时,考虑居民对于城市可持续发展的要求与"满意度",提出建立与之相适应的指标动态监测体系,构建适应生态文明体制的可持续发展模式。     

蛋白质二级结构预测方法的评价

目前评价蛋白质二级结构预测方法主要考虑预测准确率,并没有充分考虑方法自身参数对方法的影响。本文提出一种新型评价方法,将内在评价与外在评价相结合评价预测方法的优劣。以基于混合并行遗传算法的蛋白质二级结构预测方法为例,通过内在评价,合理选取内在参数——切片长度和组内类别数,有效提高预测准确率,同时,通过外在评价,与其他基于随机算法的蛋白质二级结构预测算法比较和与CASP所提供的结论比较,说明了方法的有效性与正确性,以此验证内在评价和外在评价的客观性、公正性和全面性。     

Comparison of energy evaluation systems and a mechanistic model for milk production by dairy cattle offered fresh grass-based diets

Grass-based diets are of increasing social-economic importance in dairy cattle farming, but their low supply of glucogenic nutrients may limit the production of milk. Current evaluation systems that assess the energy supply and requirements are based on metabolisable energy (ME) or net energy (NE). These systems do not consider the characteristics of the energy delivering nutrients. In contrast, mechanistic models take into account the site of digestion, the type of nutrient absorbed and the type of nutrient required for production of milk constituents, and may therefore give a better prediction of supply and requirement of nutrients. The objective of the present study is to compare the ability of three energy evaluation systems, viz. the Dutch NE system, the agricultural and food research council (AFRC) ME system, and the feed into milk (FIM) ME system, and of a mechanistic model based on Dijkstra et al. [Simulation of digestion in cattle fed sugar cane: prediction of nutrient supply for milk production with locally available supplements. J. Agric. Sci., Cambridge 127, 247–60] and Mills et al. [A mechanistic model of whole-tract digestion and methanogenesis in the lactating dairy cow: model development, evaluation and application. J. Anim. Sci. 79, 1584–97] to predict the feed value of grass-based diets for milk production. The dataset for evaluation consists of 41 treatments of grass-based diets (at least 0.75 g ryegrass/g diet on DM basis). For each model, the predicted energy or nutrient supply, based on observed intake, was compared with predicted requirement based on observed performance. Assessment of the error of energy or nutrient supply relative to requirement is made by calculation of mean square prediction error (MSPE) and by concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). All energy evaluation systems predicted energy requirement to be lower (6–11%) than energy supply. The root MSPE (expressed as a proportion of the supply) was lowest for the mechanistic model (0.061), followed by the Dutch NE system (0.082), FIM ME system (0.097) and AFRC ME system (0.118). For the energy evaluation systems, the error due to overall bias of prediction dominated the MSPE, whereas for the mechanistic model, proportionally 0.76 of MSPE was due to random variation. CCC analysis confirmed the higher accuracy and precision of the mechanistic model compared with energy evaluation systems. The error of prediction was positively related to grass protein content for the Dutch NE system, and was also positively related to grass DMI level for all models. In conclusion, current energy evaluation systems overestimate energy supply relative to energy requirement on grass-based diets for dairy cattle. The mechanistic model predicted glucogenic nutrients to limit performance of dairy cattle on grass-based diets, and proved to be more accurate and precise than the energy systems. The mechanistic model could be improved by allowing glucose maintenance and utilization requirements parameters to be variable.     

Indoor environmental study and post occupancy evaluation in an office environment

1. 1. The objective of this paper is to investigate the indoor environment from the viewpoint of interaction between physical environment and the human responses. The field survey has been conducted over 1 year.

2. 2. A continuous measurement has been carried out for 1 week and distribution of variables have been measured for 1 day.

3. 3. The attitude of workers was investigated by a questionnaire.

4. 4. As the result, average luminance represented more than 1000 lx in the new building, in contrast with less tha 300 lx in the existing building.

5. 5. There was a significant difference of the occupants' response to the light environment between the two buildings.

6. 6. Measured thermal conditions are on the edge of the ASHRAE comfort envelope in summer, and in the neighborhood of the lower dry limit of the envelope in spring.

7. 7. The occupants' evaluations were remarkably changed before and after the moving. The office environment is better than that of the factory.

森林生态价值估算方法研究进展

森林生态效益的重要性日益显现,科学家和各国政府都在关注森林生态价值估算,促进了森林生态价值估算方法的日渐成熟。本文总结了近年来国内外森林生态价值的估算方法,将目前常用的估算方法分为市场类估算法、能值估算法、软件模型法3大类,同时分析了前2种常用方法中存在的替代法的合理性有待验证、忽略多重标准的森林管理策略、欠缺考虑周围影响因素、多种生态价值重复计算以及估算中欠缺考虑稀缺性的局限;其次,重点介绍了能较好解决以上问题的GUMBO、CITYgreen和Invest等软件的特点和优势;最后,在总结当前估算方法研究的基础上,提出中国森林生态估算工作未来的研究方向是深化对森林生态结构和功能关系的认识,提高国外估算方法的适用性,加强生态补偿工作对估算方法的反馈。     

省域森林生态安全评价——基于5省的经验数据

生态安全是国家安全体系的重要组成部分。面对严峻的生态环境形势,以及大气污染、水污染、土壤污染等严重的生态环境问题,改善生态环境的需求和呼声越来越迫切。作为陆地生态系统的主体和重要资源,森林是人类生存发展的重要生态保障,森林关系国家生态安全。基于森林生态系统与自然、人类社会系统的交互关系,从森林资源状况、地理气候条件、地区社会经济压力、人类管护响应状况四个方面构建省域森林生态安全评价指标体系,并建立森林生态安全指数模型。选取我国五个具有代表性的省份:贵州、湖北、浙江、吉林、青海作为试点省份,对其2004—2014年的森林生态安全状况进行评价和对比。结果表明:影响森林生态安全状况的最主要因素是森林资源类因子,在研究期内,5省森林生态安全状况大体上处于改善状态,但省与省之间森林生态安全状况差异显著,吉林省在研究期内森林生态安全整体状况最好,青海省森林生态安全状况较脆弱。在发展经济的同时,应该加强造林,重视对森林资源的管护,尤其要注意对天然林的保护,维护森林生态安全。     

Accuracy and reliability of the scaling-relaxation method for loop closure: An evaluation based on extensive and multiple copy conformational samplings

The accuracy and reliability of the recently proposed scaling-relaxation method for loop closure were examined by using extensive conformational sampling. For each of the eight heptapeptides chosen to represent a variety of protein conformations, 1,000–2,000 conformations were sampled. Each segment contained 14 rotatable backbone dihedral angles. The average root mean square deviations (RMSDs) between the predicted and the native conformations were 0.7 Å for the backbone and 1.2 Å for the side chain atoms. These predictions were substantially more accurate than the previous predictions (1.1 Å for the backbone and 2.2 Å for the side chain atoms) of the same eight protein segments based on limited conformational sampling (100 conformations for each segment). Large prediction errors mostly occurred at polar and surface side chains that are unlikely to have any meaningful conformation. Moreover, the reliability of seven of the eight predictions was demonstrated with their energy-RMSD and stability-RMSD correlations of the low-energy conformations, where the conformational stability was estimated by using the multiple copy simultaneous sampling method.     

化石记录的再评估

分子生物学和分支系统学的发展以及化石记录自身的局限性使得古生物地层资料在生物演化研究中的地位遭到质疑。连续的化石记录的发现肯定了化石分析的意义,数据库的建立与定量分析方法的应用为古生物学的研究增添了新生力量。     

中小尺度生态用地规划方法

生态用地指以发挥自然生态功能为主,具有重要生态系统服务功能或生态环境脆弱、生态敏感性较高的土地。它是土地利用与生态建设的直接联系,关系区域生态系统的稳定性和安全性。生态用地的研究有利于建立合理的土地利用系统,完善区域生态安全格局,促进经济社会发展与生态环境相协调。在不同尺度下,生态用地的内涵、性质、主导功能以及规划方法都有所不同,结合我国土地利用规划及城市规划的层次划分,选取市域和中心城区为研究范围,其中市域为中尺度代表范围,中心城区为小尺度代表范围,分别分析了两种尺度下生态用地的内涵及区别,提出了相应的规划方法及侧重点。定量规划方面,中心城区生态用地主要结合国家相关法规、规定、政策等确定;而市域生态用地采取借鉴法、土地利用结构数量优化方法以及情景分析三种方法综合确定。空间规划方面,城区生态用地采取分类规划方法,分别对点线面三类生态用地进行提取,主要步骤为辨识重要生态源,构建面状生态用地;结合水体和交通缓冲区,构建线状生态用地;提取关键节点,构建点状生态用地;生态用地分类。市域生态用地则采取综合规划方法,主要步骤为提取特殊生态用地、基于生态用地结构功能和生态敏感性等的生态建设重要性评价、生态用地空间提取及分类。     

集约用海对海洋资源影响的评价方法

集约用海是一种相对科学、高效、生态的用海方式,但也不可避免的要占用和消耗海洋资源。因此开展集约用海对海洋资源影响的科学评估,将集约用海对海洋资源的影响降到最低就尤为重要。通过分析集约用海工程对海洋资源的影响,明确了集约用海工程对海洋资源影响影响评价的主要内容和思路,从海洋资源的复杂性及其开发利用角度,构建了基于海洋生物资源、海洋空间资源、港口航道资源、滨海旅游资源和其它资源的集约用海对海洋资源影响的综合评价指标体系。其中,从浮游植物、浮游动物、底栖生物和鱼类生物方面反映集约用海工程对海洋生物资源的影响;从滨海湿地、岸线、海域空间利用变化方面反映集约用海工程对海域空间资源的影响;从水动力变化、港口资源利用方面反映集约用海工程影响下港口航道资源的影响;从旅游资源密度反映集约用海工程对滨海旅游资源的影响;从矿产资源、能源资源利用方面反映集约用海工程对其它资源的影响。在此基础上,根据我国海洋资源调查与评估现状,研究并确立了集约用海对海洋资源影响的各评价指标权重、评价标准及评价等级,建立了基于赋值法、综合评价法的集约用海对海洋资源影响的综合评价模型,利用综合评估指数I来反映集约用海工程对海洋资源的影响程度。利用该评价方法评价了曹妃甸区域集约用海对海洋资源的影响,结果表明该区域集约用海对海洋资源造成的影响较大,应严格控制该区域集约用海工程。     

排水疏干胁迫下若尔盖高原沼泽退化评价指标体系

沼泽退化评价指标体系研究是国际湿地科学研究前沿领域的关键科学问题之一.在长期野外考察的基础上,根据2009年3个排水疏干沼泽退化研究样带20个沼泽的植物群落生态观测和土壤分析数据,基于沼泽植物群落物种重要值的双向指示种分析(TWINSPAN),将沼泽样地划分为未受干扰(A型)、受长期低强度排水干扰(B～D型)和受短期高强度排水干扰(E～G型)3类,其中又可分为7个植物群落类型.采用主成分分析法(PCA)对沼泽退化进行分级,建立了若尔盖高原沼泽评价的植被指标体系(SVEI)和土壤指标体系(SSEI).基于SVEI,将沼泽划分为原始沼泽、轻度退化沼泽、中度退化沼泽和重度退化沼泽.基于SSEI,将红原县沼泽划分为原始沼泽、轻度退化沼泽和重度退化沼泽3个等级,将若尔盖县沼泽划分为轻度退化沼泽、中度退化沼泽和重度退化沼泽3个等级.SVEI或SSEI评价结果与TWINSPAN分类结果相似度均在70%以上,说明SVEI或SSEI对沼泽退化分级均具有较好的效果,可采用不同方法相结合的方式对高原沼泽进行综合评价.     

区域生态系统健康评价——研究方法与进展

生态系统健康评价是当前宏观生态学与生态系统管理研究的热点问题之一,区域尺度的生态系统健康评价则是生态系统健康评价研究的一个重要发展方向。在探讨生态系统健康时空尺度特征的基础上,明确界定了区域生态系统健康及其评价等相关概念,结合目前区域尺度生态系统健康评价的相关研究进展,从评价的区域类型、目标单元、模型方法、指标选取及其阈值、权重设定等方面探讨了区域生态系统健康评价的基本原理与方法,并展望了进一步研究的重点方向,即评价结果的多尺度综合与尺度转换、景观生态学理论与方法的应用、3S技术的综合应用等理论与技术问题。     

河西走廊不同产地‘赤霞珠’酿酒葡萄果实品质评价

为了确定河西走廊地区‘赤霞珠’酿酒葡萄核心品质指标,建立‘赤霞珠’酿酒葡萄品质综合评价模型。从张掖、武威、嘉峪关3个酿酒葡萄主产市的代表性果园采集6份‘赤霞珠’葡萄样品进行品质测定,通过主成分分析和聚类分析法确定‘赤霞珠’葡萄核心品质指标,运用层次分析法确定指标权重并建立‘赤霞珠’葡萄品质综合评价模型。结果表明:(1)不同产地‘赤霞珠’酿酒葡萄品质指标存在明显差异性,张掖市国风葡萄酒庄园的‘赤霞珠’葡萄果糖、蔗糖、草酸、柠檬酸含量均高于其他地区,且可溶性固形物、可溶性糖、总酚、苹果酸含量在各产地中也均保持在最高水平。(2)相关性分析发现,葡萄果实葡萄糖含量与可溶性固形物含量、果糖与可溶性糖含量之间呈极显著正相关,固酸比和糖酸比均与可滴定酸含量呈极显著负相关关系。(3)综合主成分分析、聚类分析和相关性分析结果,确定维生素C(Vc)、单宁、果糖和固酸比是‘赤霞珠’葡萄核心品质指标,应用层次分析法建立了‘赤霞珠’葡萄品质综合评价模型为Y=0.0960×Vc含量+0.1611×单宁含量+0.2771×果糖含量+0.4568×固酸比(各指标含量均经过标准化处理)。研究发现,河西走廊地区‘赤霞珠’葡萄果实品质最佳产地是张掖市,果实Vc、单宁、果糖和固酸比是‘赤霞珠’葡萄的核心品质指标,以其建立的评价模型可用于‘赤霞珠’葡萄品质的综合评价。     

A Single Shock During An Episode Of Ventricular Tachycardia: Is The Device Working Properly?

Emergency department admissions due to implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) shocks constitute an important patient group. The correct evaluation includes a review of system integrity and a careful analysis of stored intracardiac electrograms. We present a patient admitted with a single ICD discharge due to an episode of sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia, and an unexpected finding.