Soil microbial responses to experimental warming and clipping in a tallgrass prairie

Global surface temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8°C by the end of this century. However, the impacts of this projected warming on soil C balance and the C budget of terrestrial ecosystems are not clear. One major source of uncertainty stems from warming effects on soil microbes, which exert a dominant influence on the net C balance of terrestrial ecosystems by controlling organic matter decomposition and plant nutrient availability. We, therefore, conducted an experiment in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem at the Great Plain Apiaries (near Norman, OK) to study soil microbial responses to temperature elevation of about 2°C through artificial heating in clipped and unclipped field plots. While warming did not induce significant changes in net N mineralization, soil microbial biomass and respiration rate, it tended to reduce extractable inorganic N during the second and third warming years, likely through increasing plant uptake. In addition, microbial substrate utilization patterns and the profiles of microbial phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) showed that warming caused a shift in the soil microbial community structure in unclipped subplots, leading to the relative dominance of fungi as evidenced by the increased ratio of fungal to bacterial PLFAs. However, no warming effect on soil microbial community structure was found in clipped subplots where a similar scale of temperature increase occurred. Clipping also significantly reduced soil microbial biomass and respiration rate in both warmed and unwarmed plots. These results indicated that warming‐led enhancement of plant growth rather than the temperature increase itself may primarily regulate soil microbial response. Our observations show that warming may increase the relative contribution of fungi to the soil microbial community, suggesting that shifts in the microbial community structure may constitute a major mechanism underlying warming acclimatization of soil respiration.     

Future warmer seas: increased stress and susceptibility to grazing in seedlings of a marine habitat‐forming species

Increases in seawater temperature are expected to have negative consequences for marine organisms. Beyond individual effects, species‐specific differences in thermal tolerance are predicted to modify species interactions and increase the strength of top‐down effects, particularly in plant–herbivore interactions. Shifts in trophic interactions will be especially important when affecting habitat‐forming species such as seagrasses, as the consequences on their abundance will cascade throughout the food web. Seagrasses are a major component of coastal ecosystems offering important ecosystem services, but are threatened by multiple anthropogenic stressors, including warming. The mechanistic understanding of seagrass responses to warming at multiple scales of organization remains largely unexplored, especially in early‐life stages such as seedlings. Yet, these early‐life stages are critical for seagrass expansion processes and adaptation to climate change. In this study, we determined the effects of a 3 month experimental exposure to present and predicted mean summer SST of the Mediterranean Sea (25°C, 27°C, and 29°C) on the photophysiology, size, and ecology (i.e., plant‐herbivore interactions) of seedlings of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica. Warming resulted in increased mortality, leaf necrosis, and respiration as well as lower carbohydrate reserves in the seed, the main storage organ in seedlings. Aboveground biomass and root growth were also limited with warming, which could hamper seedling establishment success. Furthermore, warming increased the susceptibility to consumption by grazers, likely due to lower leaf fiber content and thickness. Our results indicate that warming will negatively affect seagrass seedlings through multiple direct and indirect pathways: increased stress, reduced establishment potential, lower storage of carbohydrate reserves, and increased susceptibly to consumption. This work provides a significant step forward in understanding the major mechanisms that will drive the capacity of seagrass seedlings to adapt and survive to warming, highlighting the potential additive effects that herbivory will have on ultimately determining seedling success.     

Climate warming alters the relative importance of plant root and microbial community in regulating the accumulation of soil microbial necromass carbon in a Tibetan alpine meadow

Climate warming is predicted to considerably affect variations in soil organic carbon (SOC), especially in alpine ecosystems. Microbial necromass carbon (MNC) is an important contributor to stable soil organic carbon pools. However, accumulation and persistence of soil MNC across a gradient of warming are still poorly understood. An 8-year field experiment with four levels of warming was conducted in a Tibetan meadow. We found that low-level (+0–1.5°C) warming mostly enhanced bacterial necromass carbon (BNC), fungal necromass carbon (FNC), and total MNC compared with control treatment across soil layers, while no significant effect was caused between high-level (+1.5–2.5°C) treatments and control treatments. The contributions of both MNC and BNC to soil organic carbon were not significantly affected by warming treatments across depths. Structural equation modeling analysis demonstrated that the effect of plant root traits on MNC persistence strengthened with warming intensity, while the influence of microbial community characteristics waned along strengthened warming. Overall, our study provides novel evidence that the major determinants of MNC production and stabilization may vary with warming magnitude in alpine meadows. This finding is critical for updating our knowledge on soil carbon storage in response to climate warming.     

Temperature effects on fish production across a natural thermal gradient

Global warming is widely predicted to reduce the biomass production of top predators, or even result in species loss. Several exceptions to this expectation have been identified, however, and it is vital that we understand the underlying mechanisms if we are to improve our ability to predict future trends. Here, we used a natural warming experiment in Iceland and quantitative theoretical predictions to investigate the success of brown trout as top predators across a stream temperature gradient (4–25 °C). Brown trout are at the northern limit of their geographic distribution in this system, with ambient stream temperatures below their optimum for maximal growth, and above it in the warmest streams. A five‐month mark‐recapture study revealed that population abundance, biomass, growth rate, and production of trout all increased with stream temperature. We identified two mechanisms that contributed to these responses: (1) trout became more selective in their diet as stream temperature increased, feeding higher in the food web and increasing in trophic position; and (2) trophic transfer through the food web was more efficient in the warmer streams. We found little evidence to support a third potential mechanism: that external subsidies would play a more important role in the diet of trout with increasing stream temperature. Resource availability was also amplified through the trophic levels with warming, as predicted by metabolic theory in nutrient‐replete systems. These results highlight circumstances in which top predators can thrive in warmer environments and contribute to our knowledge of warming impacts on natural communities and ecosystem functioning.     

Rapid loss of an ecosystem engineer: Sphagnum decline in an experimentally warmed bog

Sphagnum mosses are keystone components of peatland ecosystems. They facilitate the accumulation of carbon in peat deposits, but climate change is predicted to expose peatland ecosystem to sustained and unprecedented warming leading to a significant release of carbon to the atmosphere. Sphagnum responses to climate change, and their interaction with other components of the ecosystem, will determine the future trajectory of carbon fluxes in peatlands. We measured the growth and productivity of Sphagnum in an ombrotrophic bog in northern Minnesota, where ten 12.8‐m‐diameter plots were exposed to a range of whole‐ecosystem (air and soil) warming treatments (+0 to +9°C) in ambient or elevated (+500 ppm) CO₂. The experiment is unique in its spatial and temporal scale, a focus on response surface analysis encompassing the range of elevated temperature predicted to occur this century, and consideration of an effect of co‐occurring CO₂ altering the temperature response surface. In the second year of warming, dry matter increment of Sphagnum increased with modest warming to a maximum at 5°C above ambient and decreased with additional warming. Sphagnum cover declined from close to 100% of the ground area to <50% in the warmest enclosures. After three years of warming, annual Sphagnum productivity declined linearly with increasing temperature (13–29 g C/m² per °C warming) due to widespread desiccation and loss of Sphagnum. Productivity was less in elevated CO₂ enclosures, which we attribute to increased shading by shrubs. Sphagnum desiccation and growth responses were associated with the effects of warming on hydrology. The rapid decline of the Sphagnum community with sustained warming, which appears to be irreversible, can be expected to have many follow‐on consequences to the structure and function of this and similar ecosystems, with significant feedbacks to the global carbon cycle and climate change.     

Climate‐induced warming imposes a threat to north European spring ecosystems

Interest in climate change effects on groundwater has increased dramatically during the last decade. The mechanisms of climate‐related groundwater depletion have been thoroughly reviewed, but the influence of global warming on groundwater‐dependent ecosystems (GDEs) remains poorly known. Here we report long‐term water temperature trends in 66 northern European cold‐water springs. A vast majority of the springs (82%) exhibited a significant increase in water temperature during 1968–2012. Mean spring water temperatures were closely related to regional air temperature and global radiative forcing of the corresponding year. Based on three alternative climate scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP6) and high‐emission scenarios (RCP8.5), we estimate that increase in mean spring water temperature in the region is likely to range from 0.67 °C (RCP2.6) to 5.94 °C (RCP8.5) by 2086. According to the worst‐case scenario, water temperature of these originally cold‐water ecosystems (regional mean in the late 1970s: 4.7 °C) may exceed 12 °C by the end of this century. We used bryophyte and macroinvertebrate species data from Finnish springs and spring‐fed streams to assess ecological impacts of the predicted warming. An increase in spring water temperature by several degrees will likely have substantial biodiversity impacts, causing regional extinction of native, cold‐stenothermal spring specialists, whereas species diversity of headwater generalists is likely to increase. Even a slight (by 1 °C) increase in water temperature may eliminate endemic spring species, thus altering bryophyte and macroinvertebrate assemblages of spring‐fed streams. Climate change‐induced warming of northern regions may thus alter species composition of the spring biota and cause regional homogenization of biodiversity in headwater ecosystems.     

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to temperature and precipitation change: a meta‐analysis of experimental manipulation

Global mean temperature is predicted to increase by 2–7 °C and precipitation to change across the globe by the end of this century. To quantify climate effects on ecosystem processes, a number of climate change experiments have been established around the world in various ecosystems. Despite these efforts, general responses of terrestrial ecosystems to changes in temperature and precipitation, and especially to their combined effects, remain unclear. We used meta‐analysis to synthesize ecosystem‐level responses to warming, altered precipitation, and their combination. We focused on plant growth and ecosystem carbon (C) balance, including biomass, net primary production (NPP), respiration, net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and ecosystem photosynthesis, synthesizing results from 85 studies. We found that experimental warming and increased precipitation generally stimulated plant growth and ecosystem C fluxes, whereas decreased precipitation had the opposite effects. For example, warming significantly stimulated total NPP, increased ecosystem photosynthesis, and ecosystem respiration. Experimentally reduced precipitation suppressed aboveground NPP (ANPP) and NEE, whereas supplemental precipitation enhanced ANPP and NEE. Plant productivity and ecosystem C fluxes generally showed higher sensitivities to increased precipitation than to decreased precipitation. Interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation tended to be smaller than expected from additive, single‐factor effects, though low statistical power limits the strength of these conclusions. New experiments with combined temperature and precipitation manipulations are needed to conclusively determine the importance of temperature–precipitation interactions on the C balance of terrestrial ecosystems under future climate conditions.     

Initial responses of soil CO2 efflux and C, N pools to experimental warming in two contrasting forest ecosystems, Eastern Tibetan Plateau, China

Alpine ecosystems are harsh environments where low temperatures are generally a limiting factor. Predicted global warming is thus expected to have a profound impact on alpine ecosystems in the future. This study was conducted to compare the effect of experimental warming on soils in two contrasting forest ecosystems (a dragon spruce plantation and a natural forest) using the open top chamber (OTC) method in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau of China. The OTC enhanced average daily mean soil temperatures by 0.61°C (plantation) and 0.55°C (natural forest), respectively, throughout the growing season. Conversely, soil volumetric moisture declined by 4.10% in the plantation and by 2.55% in the natural forest. Across all measuring dates, warming increased average soil CO₂ efflux by 10.6% in the plantation and by 15.4% in the natural forest. However, elevated temperatures did not affect the respiration quotient in either forest. Two-stage sulfuric acid hydrolysis was used to quantify labile and recalcitrant C and N fractions in the two contrasting soils. Warming significantly reduced labile C and N fractions in both ecosystems but did not influence the total, recalcitrant and microbial biomass C and N pools. Labile C, N and microbial biomass C showed significant interactions in warming × forest type × season. Irrespective of warming treatments, all measured pools were significantly larger in the natural forest compared to the plantation. Taken together, our results indicate that the lowered soil labile C and N pools may be induced by the increased soil CO₂ efflux. The responses of the natural forest soil were more sensitive to experimental warming than those of the plantation. We conclude that reforestation dramatically lowers soil C and N pools, further affecting the responses of forest soils to future global warming.     

Increased resource use efficiency amplifies positive response of aquatic primary production to experimental warming

Climate warming is affecting the structure and function of river ecosystems, including their role in transforming and transporting carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P). Predicting how river ecosystems respond to warming has been hindered by a dearth of information about how otherwise well‐studied physiological responses to temperature scale from organismal to ecosystem levels. We conducted an ecosystem‐level temperature manipulation to quantify how coupling of stream ecosystem metabolism and nutrient uptake responded to a realistic warming scenario. A ~3.3°C increase in mean water temperature altered coupling of C, N, and P fluxes in ways inconsistent with single‐species laboratory experiments. Net primary production tripled during the year of experimental warming, while whole‐stream N and P uptake rates did not change, resulting in 289% and 281% increases in autotrophic dissolved inorganic N and P use efficiency (UE), respectively. Increased ecosystem production was a product of unexpectedly large increases in mass‐specific net primary production and autotroph biomass, supported by (i) combined increases in resource availability (via N mineralization and N₂ fixation) and (ii) elevated resource use efficiency, the latter associated with changes in community structure. These large changes in C and nutrient cycling could not have been predicted from the physiological effects of temperature alone. Our experiment provides clear ecosystem‐level evidence that warming can shift the balance between C and nutrient cycling in rivers, demonstrating that warming will alter the important role of in‐stream processes in C, N, and P transformations. Moreover, our results reveal a key role for nutrient supply and use efficiency in mediating responses of primary producers to climate warming.     

Global warming: causes and impacts on agroecosystems productivity and food security with emphasis on cassava comparative advantage in the tropics/subtropics

Earth’s climate has experienced notable changes during the past 50–70 years when global surface temperature has risen by 0.8°C during the 20th century. This was a consequence of the rise in the concentration of biogenic gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, and ozone) in the atmosphere that contribute, along with water vapor, to the so-called ‘greenhouse effect’. Most of the emissions of greenhouse gases have been, and still are, the product of human activities, namely, the excessive use of fossil energy, deforestations in the humid tropics with associated poor land use-management, and wide-scale degradation of soils under crop cultivation and animal/pasture ecosystems. General Circulation Models predict that atmospheric CO₂ concentration will probably reach 700 μmol(CO₂) mol^?1. This can result in rise of Earth’s temperature from 1.5 to over 5°C by the end of this century. This may instigate 0.60–1.0 m rise in sea level, with impacts on coastal lowlands across continents. Crop modeling predicts significant changes in agricultural ecosystems. The mid- and high-latitude regions might reap the benefits of warming and CO₂ fertilization effects via increasing total production and yield of C₃ plants coupled with greater water-use efficiencies. The tropical/subtropical regions will probably suffer the worst impacts of global climate changes. These impacts include wide-scale socioeconomic changes, such as degradation and losses of natural resources, low agricultural production, and lower crop yields, increased risks of hunger, and above all waves of human migration and dislocation. Due to inherent cassava tolerance to heat, water stress, and poor soils, this crop is highly adaptable to warming climate. Such a trait should enhance its role in food security in the tropics and subtropics.     

Warming up the system: higher predator feeding rates but lower energetic efficiencies

Predictions on the consequences of the rapidly increasing atmospheric CO₂ levels and associated climate warming for population dynamics, ecological community structure and ecosystem functioning depend on mechanistic energetic models of temperature effects on populations and their interactions. However, such mechanistic approaches combining warming effects on metabolic (energy loss of organisms) and feeding rates (energy gain by organisms) remain a key, yet elusive, goal. Aiming to fill this void, we studied the metabolic rates and functional responses of three differently sized, predatory ground beetles on one mobile and one more resident prey species across a temperature gradient (5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 °C). Synthesizing metabolic and functional‐response theory, we develop novel mechanistic predictions how predator–prey interaction strengths (i.e., functional responses) should respond to warming. Corroborating prior theory, warming caused strong increases in metabolism and decreases in handling time. Consistent with our novel model, we found increases in predator attack rates on a mobile prey, whereas attack rates on a mostly resident prey remained constant across the temperature gradient. Together, these results provide critically important information that environmental warming generally increases the direct short‐term per capita interaction strengths between predators and their prey as described by functional‐response models. Nevertheless, the several fold stronger increase in metabolism with warming caused decreases in energetic efficiencies (ratio of per capita feeding rate to metabolic rate) for all predator–prey interactions. This implies that warming of natural ecosystems may dampen predator–prey oscillations thus stabilizing their dynamics. The severe long‐term implications; however, include predator starvation due to energetic inefficiency despite abundant resources.     

The response of Alaskan arctic tundra to experimental warming: differences between short- and long-term responses

Global climate models predict continued rapid warming for most of the Arctic throughout the next century. To further understand the response of arctic tundra to climate warming, four sites in northern Alaska were warmed for five to seven consecutive growing seasons using open‐top chambers. Sites were located in dry heath and wet meadow communities near Barrow (71°18′N, 156°40′W) and Atqasuk (70°29′N, 157°25′W). Change in plant community composition was measured using a point frame method. During the period of observation, species richness declined in control plots by up to 2.7 species plot^?1. Responses to warming varied by site but similar trends included increased canopy height (?0.1 to 2.3 cm) and relative cover of standing dead plant matter (1.5–6.0%) and graminoids (1.8–5.8%) and decreased species diversity (0.1–1.7 species plot^?1) and relative cover of lichens (0.2–9.1%) and bryophytes (1.4–4.6%) (parentheses enclose the range of average values for the sites). The response to warming was separated into an initial short‐term response assessed after two growing seasons of warming and a secondary longer‐term response assessed after an additional three to five growing seasons of warming. The initial responses to warming were similar in the four sites, while the secondary responses varied by site. The response to warming was greater at Barrow than Atqasuk because of a greater initial response at Barrow. However, the long‐term response to warming was projected to be greater at Atqasuk because of a greater secondary response at Atqasuk. These findings show that predictions of vegetation change due to climate warming based on manipulative experiments will differ depending on both the duration and plant community on which the study focuses.     

Experimental whole‐stream warming alters community size structure

How ecological communities respond to predicted increases in temperature will determine the extent to which Earth's biodiversity and ecosystem functioning can be maintained into a warmer future. Warming is predicted to alter the structure of natural communities, but robust tests of such predictions require appropriate large‐scale manipulations of intact, natural habitat that is open to dispersal processes via exchange with regional species pools. Here, we report results of a two‐year whole‐stream warming experiment that shifted invertebrate assemblage structure via unanticipated mechanisms, while still conforming to community‐level metabolic theory. While warming by 3.8 °C decreased invertebrate abundance in the experimental stream by 60% relative to a reference stream, total invertebrate biomass was unchanged. Associated shifts in invertebrate assemblage structure were driven by the arrival of new taxa and a higher proportion of large, warm‐adapted species (i.e., snails and predatory dipterans) relative to small‐bodied, cold‐adapted taxa (e.g., chironomids and oligochaetes). Experimental warming consequently shifted assemblage size spectra in ways that were unexpected, but consistent with thermal optima of taxa in the regional species pool. Higher temperatures increased community‐level energy demand, which was presumably satisfied by higher primary production after warming. Our experiment demonstrates how warming reassembles communities within the constraints of energy supply via regional exchange of species that differ in thermal physiological traits. Similar responses will likely mediate impacts of anthropogenic warming on biodiversity and ecosystem function across all ecological communities.     

Predicting xylem phenology in black spruce under climate warming

In the next century, the boreal ecosystems are projected to experience greater rates of warming than most other regions of the world. As the boreal forest constitutes a reservoir of trees of huge ecological importance and only partially known economic potential, any possible climate‐related change in plant growth and dynamics has to be promptly predicted and evaluated. A model for assessing xylem phenology in black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] using daily temperatures and thermal thresholds was defined and applied to predict changes in onset, ending and duration of xylem growth under different warming scenarios with temperatures rising by up to 3 °C. This was achieved by collecting and analyzing a dataset obtained from a 7‐year monitoring of cambium phenology and wood formation on a weekly time‐scale in trees growing in four sites at different latitudes and altitudes in the Saguenay‐Lac‐Saint‐Jean region (Quebec, Canada). The onset of xylem growth occurred between mid‐May and early June while the end ranged between mid‐September and early October, resulting in a growing season of 101–141 days. The model predicted longer duration of xylem growth at higher temperatures, with an increase of 8–11 days/ °C, because of an earlier onset and later ending of growth. With an increase of 3 °C in the mean temperature during the year, the duration of xylem growth changed on average from 125 to 160 days. The predicted changes in cambial phenology could significantly affect future wood production of the boreal ecosystems.     

Nematode community shifts in response to experimental warming and canopy conditions are associated with plant community changes in the temperate-boreal forest ecotone

Global climate warming is one of the key forces driving plant community shifts, such as range shifts of temperate species into boreal forests. As plant community shifts are slow to observe, ecotones, boundaries between two ecosystems, are target areas for providing early evidence of ecological responses to warming. The role of soil fauna is poorly explored in ecotones, although their positive and negative effects on plant species can influence plant community structure. We studied nematode communities in response to experimental warming (ambient, +1.7, +3.4 °C) in soils of closed and open canopy forest in the temperate-boreal ecotone of Minnesota, USA and calculated various established nematode indices. We estimated species-specific coverage of understory herbaceous and shrub plant species from the same experimental plots and tested if changes in the nematode community are associated with plant cover and composition. Individual nematode trophic groups did not differ among warming treatments, but the ratio between microbial-feeding and plant-feeding nematodes increased significantly and consistently with warming in both closed and open canopy areas and at both experimental field sites. The increase in this ratio was positively correlated with total cover of understory plant species, perhaps due to increased predation pressure on soil microorganisms causing higher nutrient availability for plants. Multivariate analyses revealed that temperature treatment, canopy conditions and nematode density consistently shaped understory plant communities across experimental sites. Our findings suggest that warming-induced changes in nematode community structure are associated with shifts in plant community composition and productivity in the temperate-boreal forest ecotones.     

Shift in community structure in an early‐successional Mediterranean shrubland driven by long‐term experimental warming and drought and natural extreme droughts

Global warming and recurring drought are expected to accelerate water limitation for plant communities in semiarid Mediterranean ecosystems and produce directional shifts in structure and composition that are not easily detected, and supporting evidence is scarce. We conducted a long‐term (17 years) nocturnal‐warming (+0.6°C) and drought (?40% rainfall) experiments in an early‐successional Mediterranean shrubland to study the changes in community structure and composition, contrasting functional groups and dominant species, and the superimposed effects of natural extreme drought. Species richness decreased in both the warming and drought treatments. Responses to the moderate warming were associated with decreases in herb abundance, and responses to the drought were associated with decreases in both herb and shrub abundances. The drought also significantly decreased community diversity and evenness. Changes in abundance differed between herbs (decreases) and shrubs (increases or no changes). Both warming and drought, especially drought, increased the relative species richness and abundance of shrubs, favoring the establishment of shrubs. Both warming and drought produced significant shifts in plant community composition. Experimental warming shifted the community composition from Erica multiflora toward Rosmarinus officinalis, and drought consistently shifted the composition toward Globularia alypum. The responses in biodiversity (e.g., community biodiversity, changes of functional groups and compositional shifts) were also strongly correlated with atmospheric drought (SPEI) in winter–spring and/or summer, indicating sensitivity to water limitation in this early‐successional Mediterranean ecosystem, especially to natural extreme droughts. Our results suggest that the shifts in species assembles and community diversity and composition are accelerated by the long‐term nocturnal‐warming and drought, combined with natural severe droughts, and that the magnitude of the impacts of climate change is also correlated with the successional status of ecosystem. The results thus highlight the necessity for assessing the impacts on ecosystemic functioning and services and developing effective measures for conserving biodiversity.     

Intertidal community responses to field‐based experimental warming

As the climate warms, there is little doubt that ecosystems of the future will look different from those we see today. However, community responses to warming in the field are poorly understood. We examined the effects of field‐based warming on intertidal communities in the Salish Sea, which is a regional thermal ‘hot spot’ and therefore a model system for studying thermally stressed communities. We manipulated temperature at three tidal heights by deploying black‐ and white‐bordered settlement plates. Black plates increased in situ substratum temperature by an average of 2.6°C (maximum temperature, 40.9°C). Barnacles fared poorly on black plates in all zones. When overall thermal stress was highest (summer in the high intertidal zone) herbivores were absent. In lower tidal zones, herbivores were abundant on white plates but were scarce on black plates. The total percent cover of algae was unaffected by the temperature treatment, despite the fact that macroalgae were expected to be the least thermally tolerant functional group. However, we did find that ephemeral green algae exhibited a delay in phenology on black plates. We also found that species richness declined and invertebrate assemblage structure was altered due to warming. Results from this year long experiment suggest that communities in thermally stressful habitats respond to warming via the interplay between species‐specific thermal responses and secondary adaptive strategies such as behavioral microhabitat selection. Declines in diversity and changes in the invertebrate assemblage were due to the decline of local thermally‐stressed species and the lack of replacement by warm‐adapted species. Given the low variation in the species pool along the northeast Pacific coastline, the arrival of warm‐adapted species to the Salish Sea may not occur over relevant time scales, leaving local communities depauperate.     

Warming alters community size structure and ecosystem functioning

Global warming can affect all levels of biological complexity, though we currently understand least about its potential impact on communities and ecosystems. At the ecosystem level, warming has the capacity to alter the structure of communities and the rates of key ecosystem processes they mediate. Here we assessed the effects of a 4°C rise in temperature on the size structure and taxonomic composition of benthic communities in aquatic mesocosms, and the rates of detrital decomposition they mediated. Warming had no effect on biodiversity, but altered community size structure in two ways. In spring, warmer systems exhibited steeper size spectra driven by declines in total community biomass and the proportion of large organisms. By contrast, in autumn, warmer systems had shallower size spectra driven by elevated total community biomass and a greater proportion of large organisms. Community-level shifts were mirrored by changes in decomposition rates. Temperature-corrected microbial and macrofaunal decomposition rates reflected the shifts in community structure and were strongly correlated with biomass across mesocosms. Our study demonstrates that the 4°C rise in temperature expected by the end of the century has the potential to alter the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems profoundly, as well as the intimate linkages between these levels of ecological organization.     

Life on the edge: thermal optima for aerobic scope of equatorial reef fishes are close to current day temperatures

Equatorial populations of marine species are predicted to be most impacted by global warming because they could be adapted to a narrow range of temperatures in their local environment. We investigated the thermal range at which aerobic metabolic performance is optimum in equatorial populations of coral reef fish in northern Papua New Guinea. Four species of damselfishes and two species of cardinal fishes were held for 14 days at 29, 31, 33, and 34 °C, which incorporated their existing thermal range (29–31 °C) as well as projected increases in ocean surface temperatures of up to 3 °C by the end of this century. Resting and maximum oxygen consumption rates were measured for each species at each temperature and used to calculate the thermal reaction norm of aerobic scope. Our results indicate that one of the six species, Chromis atripectoralis, is already living above its thermal optimum of 29 °C. The other five species appeared to be living close to their thermal optima (ca. 31 °C). Aerobic scope was significantly reduced in all species, and approached zero for two species at 3 °C above current‐day temperatures. One species was unable to survive even short‐term exposure to 34 °C. Our results indicate that low‐latitude reef fish populations are living close to their thermal optima and may be more sensitive to ocean warming than higher‐latitude populations. Even relatively small temperature increases (2–3 °C) could result in population declines and potentially redistribution of equatorial species to higher latitudes if adaptation cannot keep pace.     

Responses of arthropod populations to warming depend on latitude: evidence from urban heat islands

Biological effects of climate change are expected to vary geographically, with a strong signature of latitude. For ectothermic animals, there is systematic latitudinal variation in the relationship between climate and thermal performance curves, which describe the relationship between temperature and an organism's fitness. Here, we ask whether these documented latitudinal patterns can be generalized to predict arthropod responses to warming across mid‐ and high temperate latitudes, for taxa whose thermal physiology has not been measured. To address this question, we used a novel natural experiment consisting of a series of urban warming gradients at different latitudes. Specifically, we sampled arthropods from a single common street tree species across temperature gradients in four US cities, located from 35.8 to 42.4° latitude. We captured 6746 arthropods in 34 families from 111 sites that varied in summer average temperature by 1.7–3.4 °C within each city. Arthropod responses to warming within each city were characterized as Poisson regression coefficients describing change in abundance per °C for each family. Family responses in the two midlatitude cities were heterogeneous, including significantly negative and positive effects, while those in high‐latitude cities varied no more than expected by chance within each city. We expected high‐latitude taxa to increase in abundance with warming, and they did so in one of the two high‐latitude cities; in the other, Queens (New York City), most taxa declined with warming, perhaps due to habitat loss that was correlated with warming in this city. With the exception of Queens, patterns of family responses to warming were consistent with predictions based on known latitudinal patterns in arthropod physiology relative to regional climate. Heterogeneous responses in midlatitudes may be ecologically disruptive if interacting taxa respond oppositely to warming.