Pattern of xylem phenology in conifers of cold ecosystems at the Northern Hemisphere

The interaction between xylem phenology and climate assesses forest growth and productivity and carbon storage across biomes under changing environmental conditions. We tested the hypothesis that patterns of wood formation are maintained unaltered despite the temperature changes across cold ecosystems. Wood microcores were collected weekly or biweekly throughout the growing season for periods varying between 1 and 13 years during 1998–2014 and cut in transverse sections for assessing the onset and ending of the phases of xylem differentiation. The data set represented 1321 trees belonging to 10 conifer species from 39 sites in the Northern Hemisphere and covering an interval of mean annual temperature exceeding 14 K. The phenological events and mean annual temperature of the sites were related linearly, with spring and autumnal events being separated by constant intervals across the range of temperature analysed. At increasing temperature, first enlarging, wall‐thickening and mature tracheids appeared earlier, and last enlarging and wall‐thickening tracheids occurred later. Overall, the period of wood formation lengthened linearly with the mean annual temperature, from 83.7 days at ?2 °C to 178.1 days at 12 °C, at a rate of 6.5 days °C^?1. April–May temperatures produced the best models predicting the dates of wood formation. Our findings demonstrated the uniformity of the process of wood formation and the importance of the environmental conditions occurring at the time of growth resumption. Under warming scenarios, the period of wood formation might lengthen synchronously in the cold biomes of the Northern Hemisphere.     

Lengthening of the duration of xylogenesis engenders disproportionate increases in xylem production

In cold climates, the expected global warming will lead to earlier cambial resumptions in spring, with a resultant lengthening of the growing season but unknown consequences on forest productivity. The phenological traits of cambium activity and xylem formation were analyzed at a short time scale along a thermal gradient represented by an alti‐latitudinal range from the 48th to 53rd parallels and covering the whole closed black‐spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] forest in Quebec, Canada. A hypothesis was tested that warmer temperatures influence cambium phenology, allowing longer duration and higher intensity of growth, and resulting in proportionally increased xylem production. From April to October 2012, cell division in cambium and post‐cambial differentiation of xylem were observed on anatomical sections obtained from microcores collected weekly from the stem of fifty trees. The southern and warmer site was characterized by the highest radial growth, which corresponded to both the highest rates and longest durations of cell production. The differences in terms of xylem phenology and growth were marginal between the other sites. Xylem growth was positively correlated with rate and duration of cell production, with the latter explaining most variability in growth. Within the range analyzed, the relationship between temperature and most phenological phases of xylogenesis was linear. On the contrary, temperature was related with cell production according to an exponential pattern. Periods of xylogenesis of 14 days longer (+13.1%) corresponded to a massive increase in cell production (33 cells, +109%). This disproportionate change occurred at a May–September average temperature of ca. 14 °C and a snow‐free period of 210–235 days. At the lower boundary of the distribution of black spruce, small environmental changes allowing marginal lengthening of the period of cell division could potentially lead to disproportionate increases in xylem cell production, with substantial consequences for the productivity of this boreal species.     

Evidence of threshold temperatures for xylogenesis in conifers at high altitudes

Temperature is the most important factor affecting growth at high altitudes. As trees use much of the allocated carbon gained from photosynthesis to produce branches and stems, information on the timing and dynamics of secondary wood growth is crucial to assessing temperature thresholds for xylogenesis. We have carried out histological analyses to determine cambial activity and xylem cell differentiation in conifers growing at the treeline on the eastern Alps in two sites during 2002–2004 with the aim of linking the growth process with temperature and, consequently, of defining thresholds for xylogenesis. Cambial activity occurred from May to July–August and cell differentiation from May–June to September–October. The earliest start of radial enlargement was observed in stone pine in mid-May, while Norway spruce was the last species to begin tracheid differentiation. The duration of wood formation varied from 90 to 137 days, depending on year and site, with no difference between species. Longer durations were observed in trees on the south-facing site because of the earlier onset and later ending of cell production and differentiation. The threshold temperatures at which xylogenesis had a 0.5 probability of being active were calculated by logistic regressions. Xylogenesis was active when the mean daily air temperature was 5.6–8.5°C and mean stem temperature was 7.2–9°C. The similar thresholds among all trees suggested the existence of thermal limits in wood formation that correspond with temperatures of 6–8°C that are supposed to limit growth at the treeline. Different soil temperature thresholds between sites indicated that soil temperature may not be the main factor limiting xylogenesis. This study represents the first attempt to define a threshold through comparative assessment of xylem growth and tissue temperatures in stem meristems at high altitudes.     

Snowmelt and early to mid‐growing season water availability augment tree growth during rapid warming in southern Asian boreal forests

Boreal forests are facing profound changes in their growth environment, including warming‐induced water deficits, extended growing seasons, accelerated snowmelt, and permafrost thaw. The influence of warming on trees varies regionally, but in most boreal forests studied to date, tree growth has been found to be negatively affected by increasing temperatures. Here, we used a network of Pinus sylvestris tree‐ring collections spanning a wide climate gradient the southern end of the boreal forest in Asia to assess their response to climate change for the period 1958–2014. Contrary to findings in other boreal regions, we found that previously negative effects of temperature on tree growth turned positive in the northern portion of the study network after the onset of rapid warming. Trees in the drier portion did not show this reversal in their climatic response during the period of rapid warming. Abundant water availability during the growing season, particularly in the early to mid‐growing season (May–July), is key to the reversal of tree sensitivity to climate. Advancement in the onset of growth appears to allow trees to take advantage of snowmelt water, such that tree growth increases with increasing temperatures during the rapidly warming period. The region's monsoonal climate delivers limited precipitation during the early growing season, and thus snowmelt likely covers the water deficit so trees are less stressed from the onset of earlier growth. Our results indicate that the growth response of P. sylvestris to increasing temperatures strongly related to increased early season water availability. Hence, boreal forests with sufficient water available during crucial parts of the growing season might be more able to withstand or even increase growth during periods of rising temperatures. We suspect that other regions of the boreal forest may be affected by similar dynamics.     

Wood anatomical traits in black spruce reveal latent water constraints on the boreal forest

The effects of climate change on high‐latitude forest ecosystems are complex, making forecasts of future scenarios uncertain. The predicted lengthening of the growing season under warming conditions is expected to increase tree growth rates. However, there is evidence of an increasing sensitivity of the boreal forest to drought stress. To assess the influence of temperature and precipitation on the growth of black spruce (Picea mariana), we investigated long‐term series of wood anatomical traits on 20 trees from four sites along 600 km, the latitudinal range of the closed boreal forest in Quebec, Canada. We correlated the anatomical traits resolved at intraring level with daily temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and precipitation during the 1943–2010 period. Tree‐ring width, number of cells per ring and cell wall thickness were positively affected by spring and summer daily mean and maximum temperature at the northern sites. These results agree with the well‐known positive effect of high temperatures on tree ring formation at high latitudes. However, we captured, for the first time in this region, the latent impact of water availability on xylem traits. Indeed, in all the four sites, cell lumen area showed positive correlations with daily precipitation (mostly at low latitude), and/or negative correlations with daily mean and maximum temperature and VPD (mostly at high latitude). We inferred that drought, due to high temperatures, low precipitations, or both, negatively affects cell enlargement across the closed boreal forest, including the northernmost sites. The production of tracheids with narrower lumen, potentially more resistant to cavitation, could increase xylem hydraulic safety under a warmer and drier climate. However, this would result in lower xylem conductivity, with consequent long‐term hydraulic deterioration, growth decline, and possibly lead to tree dieback, as observed in other forest ecosystems at lower latitudes.     

Duration of xylogenesis in black spruce lengthened between 1950 and 2010

Background and Aims

Reconstructions have identified the 20th century as being uniquely warm in the last 1000 years. Changes in the phenology of primary meristems converged toward increases in length of the growing season. Has the phenology of secondary meristem changed during the last century, and to what extent?

Methods

Timings of wood formation in black spruce, Picea mariana, were monitored for 9 years on a weekly timescale at four sites in the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada. Models for assessing xylem phenology were defined and applied to reconstruct onset, ending and duration of xylogenesis between 1950 and 2010 using thermal thresholds on chronologies of maximum and minimum temperatures.

Key Results

All sites exhibited increasing trends of both annual and May–September temperatures, with the greatest changes observed at the higher latitudes. Phenological events in spring were more affected than those occurring in autumn, with cambial resumptions occurring 0·5–0·8 d decade⁻¹ earlier. The duration of xylogenesis has lengthened significantly since 1950, although the models supplied wide ranges of variations, between 0·07 and 1·5 d decade⁻¹, respectively.

Conclusions

The estimated changes in past cambial phenology demonstrated the marked effects of the recent increase in temperature on the phenological traits of secondary meristems. In the long run, the advancement of cambial activity could modify the short time window for growth of boreal species and dramatically affect the dynamics and productivity of trees in these temperature-limited ecosystems.     

Xylem phenology and wood production: resolving the chicken‐or‐egg dilemma

Delays in the start of the growing season reduce the period available for growth and the amount of xylem production. However, a higher number of developing tracheids could prolong cell differentiation and, consequently, lengthen the growing season. The relationship between the amount and duration of cell production in the xylem remains an unresolved issue. The aim of this study was to resolve the chicken‐or‐egg causality dilemma about duration of growth and cell production through simple‐ and double‐cause models. This was achieved by (1) analysing the intra‐annual growth dynamics of the xylem in Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP during 2006–2009 in two contrasting sites of the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada, and (2) extracting the dates of onset and ending of xylem formation and the number of radial cells along the tree ring. A higher number of cells was linked to an earlier onset (r = 0.74) and later ending (r = 0.61) of cell differentiation. The absence of a relationship between the residuals of the onset and ending of xylogenesis (r_p = ?0.06) indicated that cell production influenced the correlation between the two phenophases of the xylem. These results demonstrated that a higher number of cells produced delay the ending of xylem maturation, so extending the duration of wood formation.     

Experimental warming alters spring phenology of certain plant functional groups in an early successional forest community

Experimental study of the effects of projected climate change on plant phenology allows us to isolate effects of warming on life‐history events such as leaf out. We simulated a 2 °C temperature increase and 20% precipitation increase in a recently harvested temperate deciduous forest community in central Pennsylvania, USA, and observed the leaf out phenology of all species in 2009 and 2010. Over 130 plant species were monitored weekly in study plots, but due to high variability in species composition among plots, species were grouped into five functional groups: short forbs, tall forbs, shrubs, small trees, and large trees. Tall forbs and large trees, which usually emerge in the late spring, advanced leaf out 14–18 days in response to warming. Short forbs, shrubs, and small trees emerge early in spring and did not alter their phenology in response to warming or increased precipitation treatments. Earlier leaf out of tall forbs and large trees coincided with almost 3 weeks of increased community‐level leaf area index, indicating greater competition and a condensed spring green‐up period. While phenology of large trees and tall forbs appears to be strongly influenced by temperature‐based growth cues, our results suggest that photoperiod and chilling cues more strongly influence the leaf out of other functional groups. Reduced freeze events and warmer temperatures from predicted climate change will interact with nontemperature growth cues to have cascading consequences throughout the ecosystem.     

A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere conifers

Despite growing interest in predicting plant phenological shifts, advanced spring phenology by global climate change remains debated. Evidence documenting either small or large advancement of spring phenology to rising temperature over the spatio-temporal scales implies a potential existence of a thermal threshold in the responses of forests to global warming. We collected a unique data set of xylem cell-wall-thickening onset dates in 20 coniferous species covering a broad mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (−3.05 to 22.9°C) across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23°–66° N). Along the MAT gradient, we identified a threshold temperature (using segmented regression) of 4.9 ± 1.1°C, above which the response of xylem phenology to rising temperatures significantly decline. This threshold separates the Northern Hemisphere conifers into cold and warm thermal niches, with MAT and spring forcing being the primary drivers for the onset dates (estimated by linear and Bayesian mixed-effect models), respectively. The identified thermal threshold should be integrated into the Earth-System-Models for a better understanding of spring phenology in response to global warming and an improved prediction of global climate-carbon feedbacks.     

Chilling and forcing temperatures interact to predict the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers

The phenology of wood formation is a critical process to consider for predicting how trees from the temperate and boreal zones may react to climate change. Compared to leaf phenology, however, the determinism of wood phenology is still poorly known. Here, we compared for the first time three alternative ecophysiological model classes (threshold models, heat‐sum models and chilling‐influenced heat‐sum models) and an empirical model in their ability to predict the starting date of xylem cell enlargement in spring, for four major Northern Hemisphere conifers (Larix decidua, Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Picea mariana). We fitted models with Bayesian inference to wood phenological data collected for 220 site‐years over Europe and Canada. The chilling‐influenced heat‐sum model received most support for all the four studied species, predicting validation data with a 7.7‐day error, which is within one day of the observed data resolution. We conclude that both chilling and forcing temperatures determine the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers. Importantly, the chilling‐influenced heat‐sum model showed virtually no spatial bias whichever the species, despite the large environmental gradients considered. This suggests that the spring onset of wood formation is far less affected by local adaptation than by environmentally driven plasticity. In a context of climate change, we therefore expect rising winter–spring temperature to exert ambivalent effects on the spring onset of wood formation, tending to hasten it through the accumulation of forcing temperature, but imposing a higher forcing temperature requirement through the lower accumulation of chilling.     

Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas‐fir

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures (‘forcing’) typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures (‘chilling’) while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height‐ and diameter‐growth initiation in coast Douglas‐fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field‐based and controlled‐environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, toward lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter‐growth initiation than height‐growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas‐fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution.     

Critical temperatures for xylogenesis in conifers of cold climates

Aim To identify temperatures at which cell division and differentiation are active in order to verify the existence of a common critical temperature determining growth in conifers of cold climates. Location Ten European and Canadian sites at different latitudes and altitudes. Methods The periods of cambial activity and cell differentiation were assessed on a weekly time‐scale on histological sections of cambium and wood tissue collected over 2 to 5 years per site from 1998 to 2005 from the stems of seven conifer species. All data were compared with daily air temperatures recorded from weather stations located close to the sites. Logistic regressions were used to calculate the probability of xylogenesis and of cambium being active at a given temperature. Results Xylogenesis lasted from May to October, with a growing period varying from 3 to 5 months depending on location and elevation. Despite the wide geographical range of the monitored sites, temperatures for onset and ending of xylogenesis converged towards narrow ranges with average values around 4–5, 8–9 and 13–14 °C for daily minimum, mean and maximum temperature, respectively. On the contrary, cell division in the cambium stopped in July?August, when temperatures were still high. Main conclusions Wood formation in conifers occurred when specific critical temperatures were reached. Although the timing and duration of xylogenesis varied among species, sites and years, the estimated temperatures were stable for all trees studied. These results provide biologically based evidence that temperature is a critical factor limiting production and differentiation of xylem cells in cold climates. Although daily temperatures below 4?5 °C are still favourable for photosynthesis, thermal conditions below these values could inhibit the allocation of assimilated carbon to structural investment, i.e. xylem growth.     

Temperature alone does not explain phenological variation of diverse temperate plants under experimental warming

Anthropogenic climate change has altered temperate forest phenology, but how these trends will play out in the future is controversial. We measured the effect of experimental warming of 0.6–5.0 °C on the phenology of a diverse suite of 11 plant species in the deciduous forest understory (Duke Forest, North Carolina, USA) in a relatively warm year (2011) and a colder year (2013). Our primary goal was to dissect how temperature affects timing of spring budburst, flowering, and autumn leaf coloring for functional groups with different growth habits, phenological niches, and xylem anatomy. Warming advanced budburst of six deciduous woody species by 5–15 days and delayed leaf coloring by 18–21 days, resulting in an extension of the growing season by as much as 20–29 days. Spring temperature accumulation was strongly correlated with budburst date, but temperature alone cannot explain the diverse budburst responses observed among plant functional types. Ring‐porous trees showed a consistent temperature response pattern across years, suggesting these species are sensitive to photoperiod. Conversely, diffuse‐porous species responded differently between years, suggesting winter chilling may be more important in regulating budburst. Budburst of the ring‐porous Quercus alba responded nonlinearly to warming, suggesting evolutionary constraints may limit changes in phenology, and therefore productivity, in the future. Warming caused a divergence in flowering times among species in the forest community, resulting in a longer flowering season by 10‐16 days. Temperature was a good predictor of flowering for only four of the seven species studied here. Observations of interannual temperature variability overpredicted flowering responses in spring‐blooming species, relative to our warming experiment, and did not consistently predict even the direction of flowering shifts. Experiments that push temperatures beyond historic variation are indispensable for improving predictions of future changes in phenology.     

Phenology model from surface meteorology does not capture satellite-based greenup estimations

Seasonal temperature change in temperate forests is known to trigger the start of spring growth, and both interannual and spatial variations in spring onset have been tied to climatic variability. Satellite dates are increasingly being used in phenology studies, but to date that has been little effort to link remotely sensed phenology to surface climate records. In this research, we use a two‐parameter spring warming phenology model to explore the relationship between climate and satellite‐based phenology. We employ daily air temperature records between 2000 and 2005 for 171 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration weather stations located throughout New England to construct spring warming models predicting the onset of spring, as defined by the date of half‐maximum greenness (D₅₀) in deciduous forests as detected from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. The best spring warming model starts accumulating temperatures after March 20th and when average daily temperatures exceed 5°C. The accumulated heat sums [heating degree day (HDD)] required to reach D₅₀ range from 150 to 300 degree days over New England, with the highest requirements to the south and in coastal regions. We test the ability of the spring warming model to predict phenology against a null photoperiod model (average date of onset). The spring warming model offers little improvement on the null model when predicting D₅₀. Differences between the efficacies of the two models are expressed as the ‘climate sensitivity ratio’ (CSR), which displays coherent spatial patterns. Our results suggest that northern (beech‐maple‐birch) and central (oak‐hickory) hardwood forests respond to climate differently, particularly with disparate requirements for the minimum temperature necessary to begin spring growth (3 and 6°C, respectively). We conclude that spatial location and species composition are critical factors for predicting the phenological response to climate change: satellite observations cannot be linked directly to temperature variability if species or community compositions are unknown.     

Drought causes reduced growth of trembling aspen in western Canada

Adequate and advance knowledge of the response of forest ecosystems to temperature‐induced drought is critical for a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of global climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function. Recent massive decline in aspen‐dominated forests and an increased aspen mortality in boreal forests have been associated with global warming, but it is still uncertain whether the decline and mortality are driven by drought. We used a series of ring‐width chronologies from 40 trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) sites along a latitudinal gradient (from 52° to 58°N) in western Canada, in an attempt to clarify the impacts of drought on aspen growth by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Results indicated that prolonged and large‐scale droughts had a strong negative impact on trembling aspen growth. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal variability of drought indices is useful for explaining the spatial heterogeneity in the radial growth of trembling aspen. Due to ongoing global warming and rising temperatures, it is likely that severer droughts with a higher frequency will occur in western Canada. As trembling aspen is sensitive to drought, we suggest that drought indices could be applied to monitor the potential effects of increased drought stress on aspen trees growth, achieve classification of eco‐regions and develop effective mitigation strategies to maintain western Canadian boreal forests.     

Compensatory mechanisms mitigate the effect of warming and drought on wood formation

Because of global warming, high‐latitude ecosystems are expected to experience increases in temperature and drought events. Wood formation will have to adjust to these new climatic constraints to maintain tree mechanical stability and long‐distance water transport. The aim of this study is to understand the dynamic processes involved in wood formation under warming and drought. Xylogenesis, gas exchange, water relations and wood anatomy of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] saplings were monitored during a greenhouse experiment where temperature was increased during daytime or night‐time (+6 °C) combined with a drought period. The kinetics of tracheid development expressed as rate and duration of the xylogenesis sub‐processes were quantified using generalized additive models. Drought and warming had a strong influence on cell production, but little effect on wood anatomy. The increase in cell production rate under warmer temperatures, and especially during the night‐time warming at the end of the growing season, resulted in wider tree‐rings. However, the strong compensation between rates and durations of cell differentiation processes mitigates warming and drought effects on tree‐ring structure. Our results allowed quantification of how wood formation kinetics is regulated when water and heat stress increase, allowing trees to adapt to future environmental conditions.     

Warming counteracts defoliation‐induced mismatch by increasing herbivore‐plant phenological synchrony

Climate change is altering phenology; however, the magnitude of this change varies among taxa. Compared with phenological mismatch between plants and herbivores, synchronization due to climate has been less explored, despite its potential implications for trophic interactions. The earlier budburst induced by defoliation is a phenological strategy for plants against herbivores. Here, we tested whether warming can counteract defoliation‐induced mismatch by increasing herbivore‐plant phenological synchrony. We compared the larval phenology of spruce budworm and budburst in balsam fir, black spruce, and white spruce saplings subjected to defoliation in a controlled environment at temperatures of 12, 17, and 22°C. Budburst in defoliated saplings occurred 6–24 days earlier than in the controls, thus mismatching needle development from larval feeding. This mismatch decreased to only 3–7 days, however, when temperatures warmed by 5 and 10°C, leading to a resynchronization of the host with spruce budworm larvae. The increasing synchrony under warming counteracts the defoliation‐induced mismatch, disrupting trophic interactions and energy flow between forest ecosystem and insect populations. Our results suggest that the predicted warming may improve food quality and provide better growth conditions for larval development, thus promoting longer or more intense insect outbreaks in the future.     

Moisture‐driven xylogenesis in Pinus ponderosa from a Mojave Desert mountain reveals high phenological plasticity

Future seasonal dynamics of wood formation in hyperarid environments are still unclear. Although temperature‐driven extension of the growing season and increased forest productivity are expected for boreal and temperate biomes under global warming, a similar trend remains questionable in water‐limited regions. We monitored cambial activity in a montane stand of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) from the Mojave Desert for 2 consecutive years (2015–2016) showing opposite‐sign anomalies between warm‐ and cold‐season precipitation. After the wet winter/spring of 2016, xylogenesis started 2 months earlier compared to 2015, characterized by abundant monsoonal (July–August) rainfall and hyperarid spring. Tree size did not influence the onset and ending of wood formation, highlighting a predominant climatic control over xylem phenological processes. Moisture conditions in the previous month, in particular soil water content and dew point, were the main drivers of cambial phenology. Latewood formation started roughly at the same time in both years; however, monsoonal precipitation triggered the formation of more false rings and density fluctuations in 2015. Because of uncertainties in future precipitation patterns simulated by global change models for the Southwestern United States, the dependency of P. ponderosa on seasonal moisture implies a greater conservation challenge than for species that respond mostly to temperature conditions.     

Simulated and predicted responses of tree stem radial growth to climate change—A case study in semi-arid north central China

Precise knowledge how tree growth will respond to future climate change is essential for the adapted management of forest ecosystems. By conducting sensitivity tests, tree-ring process-based cambial growth models can provide an innovative way to better understand wood formation under different climate change scenarios. As a case study in semi-arid north central China, we used artificially increased or decreased daily climatic data as input to the Vaganov-Shashkin dynamic growth model to investigate the response of wood formation to climatic change. By calibrating the tree-ring model using daily climate data over the period 1951–2010, we found that 81% of radial growth was driven by soil moisture, while 13% of growth was controlled by temperature. During the main growing season June–August, significant differences in the integral growth rate occurred after changing precipitation by ± 30% or by decreasing temperature by 3.0 °C (p < 0.05). However, increasing temperature showed only modest effects on tree radial growth rate. During the past 60 years, a significant advancement of the starting dates of growth was detected, whereby non-significant variability was found for the ending dates of growth. Contemporaneously, the effect of previous winter temperature (previous December to current January) on cambial growth initiation declined after 1980. Significant differences in the growth onset dates only occurred when temperature was reduced by 4.5 °C or increased by 5.5 °C. Moreover, both the onset and ending dates of growth in the study region were more sensitive to cooling rather than to warming. If temperature will increase by 2°C and precipitation will increase by 30% at the end of this century as predicted by some Earth system models, tree radial growth might increase by 19% in the study region, compared to the average during the period 1952–2010. Consequently, tree stem radial growth is expected to increase under a warming and wetting climatic scenario, but will decrease under drying conditions.     

Bark cells and xylem cells in Japanese white birch twigs initiate deacclimation at different temperatures

Appropriate timing of cold deacclimation is an important component of winter survival of perennial plants, such as trees, in temperate and boreal zones. Recently, concerns about predicted global climate change disturbing deacclimation timing have been increasing. The relationship between ambient temperatures and the manner by which cells' freezing resistance changes is essential for forecasting the timing of deacclimation. In this study, Japanese white birch twigs that underwent deacclimation treatment at a constant temperature of −2, 0, 4, 10, or 20 °C were separated into bark in which cells adapted to subfreezing temperatures by extracellular freezing and xylem in which cells adapted to subfreezing temperatures by deep supercooling, and the freezing resistance of cells in each tissue type was investigated by measuring percentage electrolyte leakage. Birch cells deacclimated in a different manner according to tissue type. Within 7 days under deacclimation treatment, xylem cells decreased their freezing resistance significantly at a high subfreezing temperature (−2 °C). In contrast, bark cells required a temperature of 10 or 20 °C for a detectable decrease in freezing resistance to occur within the same period. At a temperature lower than 0 °C, bark cells did not decrease their freezing resistance, even after 28 days of treatment. The difference in freezing behavior of cells might involve the difference in how deacclimation occurred in bark and xylem cells.