Maternal winter body mass and not spring phenology determine annual calf production in an Arctic herbivore

Warming of the Arctic has resulted in earlier snowmelt and green‐up of plants in spring, potentially disrupting the synchrony between plant phenology and breeding phenology in herbivores. A negative relationship between offspring survival in West Greenland caribou and the timing of vegetation emergence was the first finding of such a mismatch in Arctic mammals. However, other studies indicate that the energy for foetal growth and early lactation is predominantly drawn from stored energy reserves typical of ‘capital’ breeders, suggesting that conditions well before spring influence calf production more than the timing of spring onset. Here we use 20 years of observations of marked Svalbard reindeer to evaluate determinants of annual recruitment, as measured by the presence of a calf at foot in mid‐summer. Spring temperatures and the enhanced vegetation index were used as proxies for spring onset, while data on body mass and pregnancy rates in late winter allowed us to determine maternal condition and the reproductive status before spring. Pregnancy rate, offspring survival and annual recruitment were all strongly correlated with average late winter adult female body mass (r = 0.87; r = 0.83; r = 0.92, respectively). Contrary to the findings in West Greenland, neither early calf survival nor annual recruitment were correlated with the two measures of annual variation in spring phenology (r = – 0.07, p = 0.8 and r = – 0.15, p = 0.6, respectively). We also revisit the Greenland data and reveal that the pattern of covariance between early and late measures of fecundity, as well as between early measures of fecundity and offspring survival, correspond with the results from Svalbard. Our results emphasize that conditions affecting maternal body mass during winter explain close to all the variation in recruitment, questioning the importance of the role of a mismatch between plant phenology and calving date.     

黄河流域植被时空变化及其对气候要素的响应

在气候变化和人类活动的双重作用下,黄河流域生态环境不断发生变化。探讨植被生长动态对于实施生态保护政策至关重要。利用Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(AVHRR) Leaf Area Index(LAI)遥感资料,结合气候要素数据,分析1981—2017年黄河流域植被覆盖的时空分布特征,探讨气候要素对其变化的影响及贡献率。研究结果表明：(1)时序上,黄河流域植被覆盖呈显著增长趋势,夏季植被覆盖的增长幅度和年际波动最大,冬季植被覆盖呈缓慢平稳增长,波动最小。(2)空间上,植被覆盖显著提高的区域占整个区域的52.1%,主要分布在中东部平原;显著降低的区域占4%,主要分布在北部和西部高原山地;生态脆弱的区域植被覆盖率大多有不同程度的提高,但生态环境良好的部分区域植被覆盖率降低。(3)时序上,黄河流域植被覆盖与气温具有显著的正相关关系。春夏冬三季的植被覆盖与气温呈显著正相关,与降水呈不显著关系;秋季的植被覆盖与气温和降水量均呈显著正相关;春秋冬三季的植被覆盖与太阳辐射呈不显著负相关,夏季的植被覆盖与太阳辐射呈不显著正相关。春夏秋冬四季的气温对植被覆...     

Demographic consequences of increased winter births in a large aseasonally breeding mammal (Bos taurus) in response to climate change

1.?Studies examining changes in the scheduling of breeding in response to climate change have focused on species with well-defined breeding seasons. Species exhibiting year-round breeding have received little attention and the magnitudes of any responses are unknown. 2.?We investigated phenological data for an enclosed feral population of cattle (Bos taurus L.) in northern England exhibiting year-round breeding. This population is relatively free of human interference. 3.?We assessed whether the timing of births had changed over the last 60 years, in response to increasing winter and spring temperatures, changes in herd density, and a regime of lime fertilisation. 4.?Median birth date became earlier by 1·0 days per year. Analyses of the seasonal distribution of calving dates showed that significantly fewer calves were born in summer (decline from 44% of total births to 20%) and significantly more in winter (increase from 12% to 30%) over the study period. The most pronounced changes occurred in winter, with significant increases in both the proportion and number of births. Winter births arise from conceptions in the previous spring, and we considered models that investigated climate and weather variables associated with the winter preceding and the spring of conceptions. 5.?The proportion of winter births was higher when the onset of the plant growing season was earlier during the spring of conceptions. This relationship was much weaker during years when the site had been fertilised with lime, suggesting that increased forage biomass was over-riding the impacts of changing plant phenology. When the onset of the growing season was late, winter births increased with female density. 6.?Recruitment estimates from a stage-structured state-space population model were significantly negatively correlated with the proportion of births in the preceding winter, suggesting that calves born in winter are less likely to survive than those born in other seasons. 7.?This is one of the first studies to document changes in the phenology of a year-round breeder, suggesting that the impact of climate on the scheduling of biological events may be more extensive than previously thought and that impacts may be negative, even for species with relatively flexible breeding strategies.     

中国季节性昼夜增温的不对称性及其对植被活动的影响

基于1982—2015年气象数据,采用线性趋势分析和GIS空间分析方法对我国近34年季节性昼夜增温的时空格局进行分析;并结合GIMMS-NDVI 3g遥感数据和植被区划数据,采用偏相关分析方法探讨不同植被分区植被对季节性不对称性增温的响应。结果表明:(1)近34年来中国昼夜气温普遍存在极为显著的上升趋势;昼夜增温在各季节均表现出不对称特征,且该不对称特征存在明显的季节性差异,春季、夏季、秋冬和冬季白天增温速率分别为夜间增温速率的1.49倍、0.98倍、0.73倍和1.69倍;(2)不同分区植被对季节性昼夜不对称增温的响应各异:相对于夜间增温,白天增温对植被活动影响程度更大,影响区域更为广泛;春季和冬季昼夜增温对植被活动的影响范围更广,且春、秋季昼夜增温对植被NDVI的上升普遍起到促进作用;(3)季节非对称性昼夜增温对不同分区的植被活动有不同的影响,这种影响程度随季节的变化存在明显差异。通过分析中国昼夜增温的季节性变化趋势及其对不同类型植被的影响,有助于加深我们对全球气候变化背景下季节性昼夜不对称增温对中国陆地植被动态影响的认识。     

基于MODIS-EVI的重庆植被覆盖时空分异特征研究

利用MODIS-EVI数据,采用像元二分模型结合距平百分率、变异系数和分布指数对2000—2015年重庆植被覆盖度变化时空分异特征进行了分析,结果表明:(1)重庆植被年际、夏、秋季和2008—2015年春季以中覆盖度为主,冬季以及2000—2007年春季以低覆盖度为主。(2)植被覆盖年际变化不明显;劣覆盖度在2000、2002、2003年春季,2001、2006年秋季以及2011年冬季异常偏多;低覆盖度在2000、2001年秋季异常偏多;高覆盖度在2000、2008年秋季和2014年春季异常偏少。(3)植被的波动变化除了冬季以中度为主外,年际、春、夏、秋季均以轻度为主;稳定比例最高为夏季,轻度比例最高为秋季,中度和重度比例最高为冬季。(4)稳定和轻度波动类型主要分布在山地森林和草地区,中度和重度波动类型主要是城镇、水域及其周边区域。在400m以下,植被变化为重度波动;在400—800m,植被年际和夏季趋于稳定分布,而春、秋、冬季为轻度波动;在800—1300m,植被年际和夏季为中度波动,春、秋、冬季为稳定分布;在1300m以上,植被年际和夏季呈现轻度波动,春季为中度波动,秋、冬季为稳定分布。     

基于MODIS卫星火点的浙江省林火季节变化及驱动因子

研究林火变化趋势和驱动因子,可为林火预防和管理提供科学依据。本研究基于MODIS卫星火点数据,结合气象(日平均风速、日平均温度、日相对湿度、气温日较差、日累计降水)、人为(到公路距离、到铁路距离、到居民点距离、人口密度、人均GDP)、地形和植被因素(高程、坡度、植被覆盖度),运用趋势分析法、Logistic回归模型,对浙江省2001—2016年林火变化趋势和驱动因子进行研究。结果表明: 浙江省春、夏季林火呈显著上升趋势,秋、冬季林火呈先上升后下降趋势,秋季下降趋势显著。浙江省各季节林火预测模型拟合度均较高,模型预测准确率分别为75.8%(春季)、79.1%(夏季)、74.7%(秋季)和79.6%(冬季)。浙江省春、夏季林火发生与变化受气象、人为、地形和植被因素的显著影响;秋、冬季林火发生与变化主要受气象因素影响。在影响因素复杂、高火险区域分散的春、夏季,林火管理应重点加强人为活动管理和防火宣传教育;在秋、冬季,可通过在高火险区集中分布的西南地区增设瞭望塔和监控设备进行监测和管理。     

Inhibition patterns and seasonal availability of nematodes for beef cattle grazing on argentina''s western pampas

The seasonal population trends of cattle nematodes in tracer calves are described from 1981 to 1987. Successive worm-free calves were grazed with growing beef cattle for 20–30 days at 6 week intervals and then slaughtered for nematode counts 2 weeks after their removal from pasture. Ostertagia, Cooperia, Trichostrongylus and Haemonchus were the main genera recovered. O.ostertagi was the most often found and acquisition of inhibition-prone larvae began in late winter and reached a peak in spring, while maximum larval availability was in autumn. The seasonal inhibition and larval availability pattern for T. axei was similar to that of Ostertagia. Cooperia showed greatest inhibition during winter with maximum larval availability in autumn and spring. Haemonchus was more prevalent during summer to early autumn and no inhibition was observed. It was concluded that infective larval availability for tracer calves was highest during autumn, and most reduced in summer. All predominant species were able to survive over summer on pasture,     

Disentangling the mechanisms behind winter snow impact on vegetation activity in northern ecosystems

Although seasonal snow is recognized as an important component in the global climate system, the ability of snow to affect plant production remains an important unknown for assessing climate change impacts on vegetation dynamics at high‐latitude ecosystems. Here, we compile data on satellite observation of vegetation greenness and spring onset date, satellite‐based soil moisture, passive microwave snow water equivalent (SWE) and climate data to show that winter SWE can significantly influence vegetation greenness during the early growing season (the period between spring onset date and peak photosynthesis timing) over nearly one‐fifth of the land surface in the region north of 30 degrees, but the magnitude and sign of correlation exhibits large spatial heterogeneity. We then apply an assembled path model to disentangle the two main processes (via changing early growing‐season soil moisture, and via changing the growth period) in controlling the impact of winter SWE on vegetation greenness, and suggest that the “moisture” and “growth period” effect, to a larger extent, result in positive and negative snow–productivity associations, respectively. The magnitude and sign of snow–productivity association is then dependent upon the relative dominance of these two processes, with the “moisture” effect and positive association predominating in Central, western North America and Greater Himalaya, and the “growth period” effect and negative association in Central Europe. We also indicate that current state‐of‐the‐art models in general reproduce satellite‐based snow–productivity relationship in the region north of 30 degrees, and do a relatively better job of capturing the “moisture” effect than the “growth period” effect. Our results therefore work towards an improved understanding of winter snow impact on vegetation greenness in northern ecosystems, and provide a mechanistic basis for more realistic terrestrial carbon cycle models that consider the impacts of winter snow processes.     

Impact of fish predation on cladoceran body weight distribution and zooplankton grazing in lakes during winter

1. It is well accepted that fish, if abundant, can have a major impact on the zooplankton community structure during summer, which, particularly in eutrophic lakes, may cascade to phytoplankton and ultimately influence water clarity. Fish predation affects mean size of cladocerans and the zooplankton grazing pressure on phytoplankton. Little is, however, known about the role of fish during winter. 2. We analysed data from 34 lakes studied for 8–9 years divided into three seasons: summer, autumn/spring and winter, and four lake classes: all lakes, shallow lakes without submerged plants, shallow lakes with submerged plants and deep lakes. We recorded how body weight of Daphnia and then cladocerans varied among the three seasons. For all lake types there was a significant positive correlation in the mean body weight of Daphnia and all cladocerans between the different seasons, and only in lakes with macrophytes did the slope differ significantly from one (winter versus summer for Daphnia). 3. These results suggest that the fish predation pressure during autumn/spring and winter is as high as during summer, and maybe even higher during winter in macrophyte‐rich lakes. It could be argued that the winter zooplankton community structure resembles that of the summer community because of low specimen turnover during winter mediated by low fecundity, which, in turn, reflects food shortage, low temperatures and low winter hatching from resting eggs. However, we found frequent major changes in mean body weight of Daphnia and cladocerans in three fish‐biomanipulated lakes during the winter season. 4. The seasonal pattern of zooplankton : phytoplankton biomass ratio showed no correlation between summer and winter for shallow lakes with abundant vegetation or for deep lakes. For the shallow lakes, the ratio was substantially higher during summer than in winter and autumn/spring, suggesting a higher zooplankton grazing potential during summer, while the ratio was often higher in winter in deep lakes. Direct and indirect effects of macrophytes, and internal P loading and mixing, all varying over the season, might weaken the fish signal on this ratio. 5. Overall, our data indicate that release of fish predation may have strong cascading effects on zooplankton grazing on phytoplankton and water clarity in temperate, coastal situated eutrophic lakes, not only during summer but also during winter.     

Seasonal variation of admission severity and outcomes in ischemic stroke – a consecutive hospital-based stroke registry

Different morbidities and mortalities of ischemic stroke may occur among seasons. For detecting the seasonal variations of severity after stroke onset and prognosis, we employed a retrospective analysis on a prospective regional hospital-based stroke registry and included a total of 1039 consecutive patients with onset date from January 2014 to December 2015. Patients were divided into four groups according to the onset seasons. Baseline characteristics, stroke subtypes, admission National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score and modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score in 90 d were recorded and compared. Ordinal logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of seasons and severity or outcomes. Higher proportion of cardiac embolisms appeared in spring and winter (p < 0.001). The median admission NIHSS score was 5 in spring, 3 in summer, 4 in fall and 4 in winter (p = 0.036). After 90 d from onset, 40.5% of patients in spring suffered poor outcome (mRS 3–6), while 24.6% in summer, 33.9% in fall and 40.1% in winter (p < 0.001). After adjusted for age, sex, stroke subtypes and other covariates, patients in spring and winter had 1.76 times (95%CI 1.14–2.70, p = 0.010) and 1.53 times (95%CI 1.08–2.18, p = 0.017) the risk of suffering higher severity category than patients in summer, respectively. Compared with summer group, risk of worse outcomes at 90 d increased to 2.30 times in spring (95%CI 1.53–3.45, p < 0.001), 1.57 times in fall (95%CI 1.14–2.16, p = 0.006) and 2.09 times in winter (95%CI 1.50–2.91, p < 0.001), respectively. In conclusion, onset seasons were associated with severity and outcomes in ischemic stroke, and patients admitted in spring and winter had more severity and worse outcomes than patients in summer.     

陕北长城沿线风沙区植被指数变化及其与气候的关系

陕北长城沿线风沙区位于毛乌素沙漠东南部边沿,属毛乌素沙地向东南移动的最活跃地段,生态环境十分脆弱。使用1981～2003年23a长时间序列的NOAA/AHRR NDVI数据、气候资料,分析了陕北长城沿线风沙区植被覆盖的历史演变及其与气候因子的关系。结果表明:(1)陕北长城沿线风沙区植被覆盖状况23a来尽管有波动起伏,但是整体在持续转好,年平均NDVI增加了10.62%。低覆盖率植被面积在减少,高覆盖率植被面积在增加。夏季的NDVI值最高、波动起伏最大,其次是秋季;春、夏、秋三季的NDVI具有明显的上升趋势,季平均NDVI年增长率夏季最大,秋季次之;夏、秋季NDVI与年NDVI具有很高的相关性,这两个季节的植被状况基本决定了全年的植被分布状况。NDVI年变化曲线为单峰型,春季NDVI缓慢增加,秋季NDVI降低速度比较快。(2)年平均NDVI与温度的年际变化相关不明显,各季节NDVI与温度相关也不明显。近年来长城沿线风沙区的年降水量没有明显增加,而年平均NDVI线性增加趋势显著,降水量是引起NDVI年际波动的主要因子,非气候因素是年平均NDVI线性增加的主要原因。降水量与NDVI存在着明显的年相关和隔季相关。年降水量与年NDVI的相关,冬季降水量与春季NDVI的相关,春季降水量与夏季NDVI的相关,夏季降水量与秋季NDVI的相关性都非常高。(3)非气候因素中生态保护和环境建设等人为措施,如植树造林、草原围栏封育等是导致植被显著增加的重要原因。     

Unexpected role of winter precipitation in determining heat requirement for spring vegetation green‐up at northern middle and high latitudes

Heat requirement, expressed in growing degree days (GDD), is a widely used method to assess and predict the effect of temperature on plant development. Until recently, the analysis of spatial patterns of GDD requirement for spring vegetation green‐up onset was limited to local and regional scales, mainly because of the sparse and aggregated spatial availability of ground phenology data. Taking advantage of the large temporal and spatial scales of remote sensing‐based green‐up onset data, we studied the spatial patterns of GDD requirement for vegetation green‐up at northern middle and high latitudes. We further explored the correlations between GDD requirement for vegetation green‐up and previous winter season chilling temperatures and precipitation, using spatial partial correlations. We showed that GDD requirement for vegetation green‐up onset declines towards the north at a mean rate of 18.8 °C‐days per degree latitude between 35°N and 70°N, and vary significantly among different vegetation types. Our results confirmed that the GDD requirement for vegetation green‐up is negatively correlated with previous winter chilling, which was defined as the number of chilling days from the day when the land surface froze in the previous autumn to the day of green‐up onset. This negative correlation is a well‐known phenomenon from local studies. Interestingly, irrespective of the vegetation type, we also found a positive correlation between the GDD requirement and previous winter season precipitation, which was defined as the sum of the precipitation of the month when green‐up onset occur and the precipitation that occurred during the previous 2 months. Our study suggests that GDD requirement, chilling and precipitation may have complex interactions in their effects on spring vegetation green‐up phenology. These findings have important implications for improving phenology models and could therefore advance our understanding of the interplay between spring phenology and carbon fluxes.     

Vegetation patterns of floodplain meadows along the climatic gradient at the Middle Elbe River

Central European floodplain meadows are characterised by flooding mainly in winter/spring and dry conditions over the summer. They harbour many rare and endangered plant species. We studied the vegetation of floodplain meadows along the regional climatic gradient of the Middle Elbe River. This gradient exhibits rather continental conditions in the south-east and oceanic conditions in the north-west. We aimed at detecting the influence of climate on the vegetation of floodplain meadows along this gradient.     

Plasma melatonin profiles of Romney Marsh sheep in natural photoperiod and in acutely extended darkness.

Plasma melatonin was measured at the summer and winter solstices and the autumn and spring equinoxes in Romney Marsh sheep held under natural conditions in South Australia (35 degrees S). The amount of melatonin detected was generally related to the extent of natural darkness, though the melatonin onset was particularly delayed after dusk in winter compared with other seasons. The duration of detectable melatonin was shorter in summer than at any other season. After each initial 24 h sampling, the sheep were resampled for a further 24 h in acutely extended darkness to mark the phase and duration of suprachiasmatic nuclei activity which is believed to be the source of the melatonin signal. The onset of high plasma melatonin was earlier than the time of natural sunset in spring and summer, but not different from the time of natural sunset in autumn and winter. The offset of high plasma melatonin was later than the time of natural sunrise at all times of year and particularly so in summer. Under the extended dark conditions, the duration of detectable melatonin was longer than that under natural photoperiod at all seasons of the year and the duration of melatonin was again shorter in summer than winter. If melatonin measurements under the conditions of extended darkness do reflect the phase and duration of suprachiasmatic nuclei function then the natural light of the photoperiod can, particularly during long photoperiod conditions, mask the expression of the pacemaker. The findings may have implications for the timing of the breeding season in Romney Marsh sheep.     

陕西吴起植被动态及其与气候变化的关系

使用归一化植被指数(normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)资料,分析了陕西省吴起县1982-2003年NDVI的演变情况及其与气候变化的关系。结果表明,22年来植被覆盖状况尽管有波动起伏,但整体在持续转好,表现在低覆盖率植被面积在减少,高覆盖率植被面积在增加;年平均NDVI与降水量呈正相关,植被覆盖的改善有利于减小风速;从季节平均值来看,春季降水量与夏季NDVI、夏季降水量与秋季NDVI的相关性均极显著(P<0.01),并且夏秋两季的降水量与年NDVI相关性也显著,说明降水量是影响吴起县植被分布状况的关键性因子;春夏季蒸发量与夏季的NDVI均呈极显著的负相关(P<0.01);春夏季相对湿度与夏季的NDVI呈极显著的正相关(P<0.01),冬季相对湿度与冬季的NDVI呈极显著的负相关(P<0.01)。     

藏北高原典型植被样区物候变化及其对气候变化的响应

植被物候作为陆地生态系统对气候变化的响应和反馈的重要指示,已成为区域或全球生态环境领域研究的热点。基于非对称高斯拟合方法重建了2001—2010年MODIS EVI时间序列影像,利用动态阈值法提取藏北高原植被覆盖2001—2010年每年关键物候参数。选取研究区内东部高寒灌丛草甸、中部高寒草甸及西部高寒草原和高寒荒漠4种典型植被类型,并结合附近的4个气象台站气候资料,分析典型植被物候在近10a对关键气候因子的响应特征。研究结果表明:(1)4种不同典型植被的物候特征(EVImax降低、返青期延后和生长季长度缩短)均表现出高寒灌丛草甸→高寒草甸→高寒草原→高寒荒漠草原的过渡;(2)藏北高原近10a的年平均气温及春、夏、冬三个季度的平均气温均呈显著升高的趋势,升温幅度在0.8—3.9℃/10a,降水减少趋势不显著,在这种水热条件下典型植被均表现出返青提前(7.2—15.5d/10a)、生长季延长(8.4—19.2d/10a)的趋势,而枯黄出现时间为年际间自然波动;(3)高寒灌丛草甸EVImax主要受春季降水量和气温影响,且降水的影响程度大于气温;对高寒草甸植被而言,春、夏季的气温和降水均有较大的影响;而高寒草原和高寒荒漠草原主要受夏季平均气温和降水量影响;(4)高寒灌丛草甸的返青时间主要受前一年秋季降水量的影响,相关系数达-0.579;而高寒草甸、高寒草原和高寒荒漠草原主要受春季平均气温影响,高寒荒漠草原的特征最为明显(r=-0.559)。     

多尺度下宝鸡地区干旱动态格局演变及其与植被覆盖的关系

利用宝鸡地区11个气象站点1974—2013年逐月气温和降水量数据,基于标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),结合土地利用/覆盖数据,从干旱发生频率、发生强度及与植被NDVI相关性等角度,探讨了近40年来干旱时空变化格局及其对植被覆盖的响应。结果显示:宝鸡地区年均SPEI指数以-2.50%/a的速度下降,干旱趋势明显增强。自20世纪末以来,全区年均干旱指数呈明显的上升趋势,以2007—2010年增大趋势最为显著(超过0.05临界线);近40年来,春季干旱发生频率达60%及以上的有21 a,达90%以上的有9a。1981—1986年起伏变化最为剧烈。秋季平均干旱发生频率为46.29%,为春、夏、秋、冬4个季节中最低。从干旱发生强度来看,全区年际、四季及月6个时间尺度上干旱强度高、低值区域分布均比较集中;秋季强度最弱的区域面积表现最高,占总面积的75.47%。干旱发生最严重的是春季,占总面积的11.90%。全区干旱与植被覆盖相关性均表现较好(均通过0.05显著性水平检验),林地、草地负相关性最为显著(除夏季),夏季、秋季、月尺度上,耕地、水域、城乡地区干旱与植被覆盖的相关性与土地利用类型无关。     

The response of Mediterranean herbaceous community to soil disturbance by native wild boars

Native wild boar (Sus scrofa lybicus) populations in Israel increased in the last decades, and their rooting activity presents an apparent severe disturbance that may affect herbaceous plant communities. We studied the extent of wild boar rooting and its effect on herbaceous vegetation in an east Mediterranean garrigue. We compared the effects of rooting soil disturbance (RSD) between summer, winter, and RSD-free control plots on herbaceous plants. RSD affected four percent of the area covered by herbaceous vegetation in winter and spring, and only 2 % in summer. Summer RSD increased herbaceous species diversity in the following spring by decreasing the abundance of the dominant species, but it did not affect total herbaceous biomass. Winter RSD lowered herbaceous biomass but did not affect herbaceous plant abundance or diversity. We conclude that Mediterranean herbaceous plant community appears to be resilient to RSD, causing only minor changes in species composition and small decrease of their biomass. The contrast between the relatively large extent of wild boars RSD, and its limited impact on the herbaceous plant community, can be attributed to the long mutual evolutionary history of wild boars and these vegetation communities.