Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process‐based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear‐edges

Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought‐prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear‐edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear‐edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree‐ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process‐based Vaganov–Shashkin‐Lite growth model and climate–growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO₂ emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear‐edge. By contrast, growth of high‐elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of ?10.7% and ?16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear‐edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear‐edge stands. Our modeling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate forest vulnerability to warmer conditions.     

Significant Mean and Extreme Climate Sensitivity of Norway Spruce and Silver Fir at Mid-Elevation Mesic Sites in the Alps

Climate forcing is the major abiotic driver for forest ecosystem functioning and thus significantly affects the role of forests within the global carbon cycle and related ecosystem services. Annual radial increments of trees are probably the most valuable source of information to link tree growth and climate at long-term time scales, and have been used in a wide variety of investigations worldwide. However, especially in mountainous areas, tree-ring studies have focused on extreme environments where the climate sensitivity is perhaps greatest but are necessarily a biased representation of the forests within a region. We used tree-ring analyses to study two of the most important tree species growing in the Alps: Norway spruce (Picea abies) and silver fir (Abies alba). We developed tree-ring chronologies from 13 mesic mid-elevation sites (203 trees) and then compared them to monthly temperature and precipitation data for the period 1846–1995. Correlation functions, principal component analysis and fuzzy C-means clustering were applied to 1) assess the climate/growth relationships and their stationarity and consistency over time, and 2) extract common modes of variability in the species responses to mean and extreme climate variability. Our results highlight a clear, time-stable, and species-specific response to mean climate conditions. However, during the previous-year''s growing season, which shows the strongest correlations, the primary difference between species is in their response to extreme events, not mean conditions. Mesic sites at mid-altitude are commonly underrepresented in tree-ring research; we showed that strong climatic controls of growth may exist even in those areas. Extreme climatic events may play a key role in defining the species-specific responses on climatic sensitivity and, with a global change perspective, specific divergent responses are likely to occur even where current conditions are less limited.     

Topographic mediation of growth in high elevation foxtail pine (Pinus balfouriana Grev. et Balf.) forests in the Sierra Nevada, USA

Aim Climate variability is an important mediating agent of ecosystem dynamics in cold, semi‐arid regions such as the mountains of western North America. Climatically sensitive tree‐ring chronologies offer a means of assessing the impact of climate variability on tree growth across temporal scales of years to centuries and spatial scales of metres to subcontinents. Our goal was to bring practices from landscape ecology that highlight the impact of landscape heterogeneity on ecological pattern and processes into a dendroclimatic study that shows that the biophysical setting of target trees affects ring‐width patterns. Location This study was conducted at two sites near alpine treeline in the Sequoia National Park, USA (36°30′ 00′ N, 118°30′ 00′ W). Methods We collected stand information and increment cores from foxtail pines (Pinus balfouriana Grev. et Balf.) for eight tree‐ring chronologies in four extreme biophysical settings at two sites using proxies for soil moisture and radiation derived from a digital elevation model. Results Biophysical setting affected forest age–class structure, with wet and bright plots showing high recruitment after 1900 ad , but had no obvious effect on immature stem density (e.g. seedlings). Biophysical setting strongly affected ring‐width patterns, with wet plots having higher correlation with instrumental temperature records while dry plots correlated better with instrumental precipitation records. Ring‐width chronologies from the wet plots showed strong low‐frequency variability (i.e. hundreds of years) while ring‐width chronologies from the dry plots showed strong variability on multidecadal scales. Main conclusions There was a strong association between biophysical setting and age‐class structure, and with ring‐width patterns in foxtail pine. The mediation of ring widths by biophysical setting has the potential to further the understanding of the expression of synoptic‐scale climate across rugged terrain. When combined with remotely sensed imagery, a priori GIS modelling of tree growth offers a viable means to devise first‐order predictions of climatic impacts in subalpine forest dynamics and to develop flexible and powerful monitoring schemes.     

Wood density of silver fir reflects drought and cold stress across climatic and biogeographic gradients

Climate influences wood density and this relationship affects the ability of conifer forests to uptake and store carbon. Some conifer species can show mixed responses to long-term climate variability in their within-ring width and density patterns. Here we analyze if tree-ring width and density differently respond to seasonal climate variability in silver fir (Abies alba) forests from the Spanish Pyrenees subjected to cold and Mediterranean influences. In these forests, early growing-season dry conditions increase minimum wood density, possibly by reducing lumen diameter and lowering growth rates. Cold conditions during the late growing season are associated to a decrease in maximum wood density, probably through a reduction in the lignification and thickening rates of latewood tracheids. We test if these associations follow climatic and biogeographic patterns since the Mediterranean influence, characterized by late-summer storms which alleviate drought stress, is prevalent eastwards in this region. Silver-fir intra-annual width and wood density data showed mixed responses to climate. Minimum wood density negatively responded to spring precipitation, particularly in dry sites forming the southernmost distribution limit of the species. Maximum wood density positively responded to mean maximum temperatures and sunshine duration during late summer and early autumn, mainly in eastern sites subjected to a dominant Mediterranean influence where late-summer drought stress is expected to be low. More extreme climate conditions including dry spells could shift minimum wood density and reduce hydraulic conductivity and growth in conifer species as silver fir which dominate mesic sites. Warmer conditions would lead to denser latewood in silver fir if accompanied by longer durations of sunshine.     

Treeline dynamics in relation to climatic variability in the central Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China

Aim Climate variability may be an important mediating agent of ecosystem dynamics in cold, arid regions such as the central Tianshan Mountains, north‐western China. Tree‐ring chronologies and the age structure of a Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana) forest were developed to examine treeline dynamics in recent decades in relation to climatic variability. Of particular interest was whether tree‐ring growth and population recruitment patterns responded similarly to climate warming. Location The study was conducted in eight stands that ranged from 2500 m to 2750 m a.s.l. near the treeline in the Tianchi Nature Reserve (43°45′?43°59′ N, 88°00′?88°20′ E) in the central Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, northwestern China. Methods Tree‐ring cores were collected and used to develop tree‐ring chronologies. The age of sampled trees was determined from basal cores sampled as close as possible to the ground. Population age structure and recruitment information were obtained using an age–d.b.h. (diameter at breast height) regression from the sampled cores and the d.b.h. measured on all trees in the plots. Ring‐width chronologies and tree age structure were both used to investigate the relationship between treeline dynamics and climate change. Results Comparisons with the climatic records showed that both the radial growth of trees and tree recruitment were influenced positively by temperature and precipitation in the cold high treeline zone, but the patterns of their responses differed. The annual variation in tree rings could be explained largely by the average monthly minimum temperatures during February and August of the current year and by the monthly precipitation of the previous August and January, which had a significant and positive effect on tree radial growth. P. schrenkiana recruitment was influenced mainly by consecutive years of high minimum summer temperatures and high precipitation during spring. Over the last several decades, the treeline did not show an obvious upward shift and new recruitment was rare. Some trees had established at the treeline at least 200 years ago. Recruitment increased until the early 20th century (1910s) but then decreased with poor recruitment over the past several decades (1950–2000). Main conclusions There were strong associations between climatic change and ring‐width patterns, and with recruitments in Schrenk spruce. Average minimum temperatures in February and August, and total precipitation in the previous August and January, had a positive effect on tree‐ring width, and several consecutive years of high minimum summer temperature and spring precipitation was a main factor favouring the establishment of P. schrenkiana following germination within the treeline ecotone. Both dendroclimatology and recruitment analysis were useful and compatible to understand and reconstruct treeline dynamics in the central Tianshan Mountains.     

Climate–growth relationships of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) in marginal populations of Central Italy

This study is part of a LIFE+ project on marginal mountain ecosystem conservation. In five mixed European beech-silver fir forests of Central Italy (Tuscany and Marches), classified as priority habitats of the Natura 2000 Network, we analysed the climate–growth relationships of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) along an altitudinal gradient. The aims of this study were: (i) to identify the main spatial patterns in the frequency domain of both silver fir growth and climate variables in five different sites and (ii) to detect the overall climate sensitivity of the target species through time.Multivariate analysis displayed groups of chronologies with similar growth patterns for each frequency band-pass, discriminating for altitude and geographical location. The spectral density of climate variables at seasonal scale displayed common spatial patterns during late-spring and summer months. In stands where fir grows in optimal conditions, the most significant growth responses to climate were the positive influence of late-spring and summer precipitations of the previous year and the negative effect of summer temperatures of both previous and current year, although decreasing during the last decades. On the other hand, the site at lowest altitude shows a low and not very consistent climate sensitivity as compared to the preferred altitudes. At the highest site (1375 m asl) the positive effect of previous year spring–summer precipitation and summer temperature of both previous and current year disappears.Results suggest that in the studied areas a water-use increase in summer is a possible response of silver fir to the significant reduction of spring precipitation and general temperature increase throughout the 20th century.These findings provide additional information on silver fir responses to climate variability at different altitudes, useful for calibrating silvicultural treatments to apply for conservation of sensitive ecosystems and of tree species in mountain areas.     

Climate response of cork growth in the Mediterranean oak (Quercus suber L.) woodlands of southwestern Portugal

In the Mediterranean climate regions, drought events are expected to affect the growth of forests ecosystems by changing trees growth rates and eventually inducing shifts in their growth patterns. Cork oak (Quercus suber L.) is a strictly western Mediterranean tree species periodically harvested for its bark, the cork. So far, cork oak has received limited attention for dendroclimatological studies due to its typical faint and erratic tree wood rings. Moreover, its distinct cork rings chronologies have been completely neglected. In this study we introduce an approach using cork ring chronologies dated back 9–10 years for climate response. Despite enhancing interannual variability and increasing statistical response to short-term climatic variability, still poorly understood, this study will possibly allow infer long-term climate response. We analyzed the cork ring chronologies of 55 cork samples collected in mature (under exploitation) trees in three distinct locations in southwestern Portugal. Cork growth recorded a high climate signal, with highly significant and coherent responses to the yearly climate-related sources of variation. We successfully assessed trends of cork growth via correlation analysis including selected climate variables among mean monthly temperature, monthly precipitation and, on an annual basis, eight precipitation indices. The high mean sensitivities and inter-series correlations found for cork ring chronologies combined with the significant variance explained by climate variables suggest that climate is likely one dominant signal that affects cork growth, but local environmental stresses can decisively affect this (climate) signal. Assuming cork growth as a proxy for cork oak growth, it seems conceivable that despite the trees being highly resistant to drought stress, cork oak woodlands in southwestern Portugal would have to face lesser growth in a global warming scenario.     

Climate Influences on the Radial Growth of Centrolobium microchaete,a Valuable Timber Species from the Tropical Dry Forests in Bolivia

In this study, we use tree‐ring records to determine the climate factors controlling the growth of Centrolobium microchaete, a high‐value timber species from the tropical dry Chiquitano forest in Bolivia. We present the first tree‐ring chronologies from C. microchaete for Concepción and Santa Mónica, Bolivia. Statistical analyses show that the chronologies are of good quality and have a significant common signal between trees. The growth of C. microchaete is strongly influenced by climatic conditions during late spring–early summer. Abundant precipitations concurrent with below‐average temperatures during this period of the year favor tree growth. Climate variations in late spring–early summer explain >40 percent of the total variance in C. microchaete tree growth during the interval 1943–2005. Minor differences in tree responses to climate recorded between the two stands may reflect differences in the extent of the dry season and in soil water capacity between sites. Although the chronologies cover the past 180 yr, adding samples from older individuals would permit the extension of these records further back in time. The strong climate dependency of tree growth suggests that predicted future climate changes in the region could have a significant influence on C. microchaete tree growth during the 21st century.     

不同去趋势方法对树轮气候信号识别的影响

树木生长受到气候因子、随年龄增长的内在生长趋势、环境干扰和其他扰动信号的影响。目前存在不同的去趋势方法对树木年轮进行去趋势以识别树木生长中的气候信号。以往的研究多基于单个方法识别树轮气候信号，而不同去趋势方法识别的树轮气候信号可能会有一定的差别。为了对比不同去趋势方法对树轮气候信号识别的影响，我们基于国际年轮数据库网站获取中国西部地区68个点的树轮宽度数据，采用最常用的"signal-free"方法（SsfCrn）、线性和负指数函数法（std）、67%样条函数法（spline）、firedman方法、以及基于经验模式分解去趋势方法（EEMD）5种去趋势方法分别建立树轮年表，并对比分析同一地点的不同年表对气候响应的异同。结果表明：不同去趋势方法得到的年表对温度、降水以及相对湿度等气候因素的响应具有明显差异。其中，SsfCrn去趋势方法建立的年表对温度（月平均温、月最低温、月平均最低温）响应中相关最高的样点在所有样点中占比最高；EEMD去趋势方法建立的年表对降水量、相对湿度和月最高温响应中相关最高的样点在所有样点中占比最高；firedman去趋势方法建立的年表对月平均最高温响应中相关最高的样点在所有样点中占比最高。研究结果表明SsfCrn，EEMD和firedman方法在识别树轮气候信号方法具有一定的优势。在不同研究区域中，不同去趋势方法建立的年表对不同气候条件响应有差异，因此选择不同的去趋势方法识别树木生长趋势，分析哪种方法可以更好的反应气候变化对树木生长的影响显得尤为重要。     

Elevation-specific tree-ring chronologies of Norway spruce and Silver fir in Southern Germany

Tree-ring (TR) chronologies are important instruments for the dating and provenance analyses of historical wood, as well as for climate reconstructions. However, radial growth patterns differ between tree species and growing environments. Therefore chronologies are more or less specific for a certain tree species, region and elevation. Chronologies that are restricted to more confined regions could extend the possibilities for dating, dendroprovenancing and regional climate reconstructions.In Southern Germany, the transport of wood by raft – for the supply of towns and cities with timber – has been documented since early mediaeval times. Consequently, not only local timber from the lowlands was used for construction purposes, but also alpine wood originating from sites up to the timberline. Since pronounced altitudinal gradients cause distinct climate differences, elevation-specific chronologies have the potential to improve dating precision in this region.In this contribution, a model is presented and applied in order to separate elevation-specific provenances of Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) and Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) in Southern Germany. The model is derived from more than 2100 living TR series originating from sites between 200 and 1710 m above see level. Absolute (mean, maximum) ring-width values and the variation of ring-widths (mean sensitivity) show distinct correlations with their altitudinal provenance, reflecting improvements in growth conditions as well as the increase of their yearly variation from high over intermediate to low elevation sites. Mean ring widths and mean sensitivity values were used as independent parameters in an exponential regression model which exhibits a coefficient of determination (r²) of 77% for spruce and 74% for fir. The prediction accuracy of the elevation amounts ±300 m for spruce and ±200 m for fir within the 95% confidence interval.The model was used to estimate the elevation origin of around 5000 historical spruce and 800 historical fir series from buildings located in Southern Germany. The historical TR series covering the AD 990–1800 period were allocated by the model to elevations between 120 and 2090 m. In a second step the individual TR series were combined to elevation-specific chronologies representing low, intermediate, and high altitudinal belts. The chronologies show distinct differences among the altitudinal belts in terms of signatures and pointer years, especially for spruce. Elevation-specific chronologies are assumed to amplify the dating possibilities of ancient timber, to provide valuable evidences for the origin of historical wood, and to offer more specific proxy data for regional climate reconstructions.     

Geographic variation in growth response of Douglas‐fir to interannual climate variability and projected climate change

We used 179 tree ring chronologies of Douglas‐fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] from the International Tree‐Ring Data Bank to study radial growth response to historical climate variability. For the coastal variety of Douglas‐fir, we found positive correlations of ring width with summer precipitation and temperature of the preceding winter, indicating that growth of coastal populations was limited by summer dryness and that photosynthesis in winter contributed to growth. For the interior variety, low precipitation and high growing season temperatures limited growth. Based on these relationships, we chose a simple heat moisture index (growing season temperature divided by precipitation of the preceding winter and current growing season) to predict growth response for the interior variety. For 105 tree ring chronologies or 81% of the interior samples, we found significant linear correlations with this heat moisture index, and moving correlation functions showed that the response was stable over time (1901–1980). We proceeded to use those relationships to predict regional growth response under 18 climate change scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s with unexpected results: for comparable changes in heat moisture index, the most southern and outlying populations of Douglas‐fir in Mexico showed the least reduction in productivity. Moderate growth reductions were found in the southern United States, and strongly negative response in the central Rocky Mountains. Growth reductions were further more pronounced for high than for low elevation populations. Based on regional differences in the slope of the growth–climate relationship, we propose that southern populations are better adapted to drought conditions and could therefore contain valuable genotypes for reforestation under climate change. The results support the view that climate change may impact species not just at the trailing edges but throughout their range due to genetic adaptation of populations to local environments.     

Patterns of drought tolerance in major European temperate forest trees: climatic drivers and levels of variability

The future performance of native tree species under climate change conditions is frequently discussed, since increasingly severe and more frequent drought events are expected to become a major risk for forest ecosystems. To improve our understanding of the drought tolerance of the three common European temperate forest tree species Norway spruce, silver fir and common beech, we tested the influence of climate and tree‐specific traits on the inter and intrasite variability in drought responses of these species. Basal area increment data from a large tree‐ring network in Southern Germany and Alpine Austria along a climatic cline from warm‐dry to cool‐wet conditions were used to calculate indices of tolerance to drought events and their variability at the level of individual trees and populations. General patterns of tolerance indicated a high vulnerability of Norway spruce in comparison to fir and beech and a strong influence of bioclimatic conditions on drought response for all species. On the level of individual trees, low‐growth rates prior to drought events, high competitive status and low age favored resilience in growth response to drought. Consequently, drought events led to heterogeneous and variable response patterns in forests stands. These findings may support the idea of deliberately using spontaneous selection and adaption effects as a passive strategy of forest management under climate change conditions, especially a strong directional selection for more tolerant individuals when frequency and intensity of summer droughts will increase in the course of global climate change.     

Disparity in elevational shifts of European trees in response to recent climate warming

Predicting climate‐driven changes in plant distribution is crucial for biodiversity conservation and management under recent climate change. Climate warming is expected to induce movement of species upslope and towards higher latitudes. However, the mechanisms and physiological processes behind the altitudinal and latitudinal distribution range of a tree species are complex and depend on each tree species features and vary over ontogenetic stages. We investigated the altitudinal distribution differences between juvenile and adult individuals of seven major European tree species along elevational transects covering a wide latitudinal range from southern Spain (37°N) to northern Sweden (67°N). By comparing juvenile and adult distributions (shifts on the optimum position and the range limits) we assessed the response of species to present climate conditions in relation to previous conditions that prevailed when adults were established. Mean temperature increased by 0.86 °C on average at our sites during the last decade compared with previous 30‐year period. Only one of the species studied, Abies alba, matched the expected predictions under the observed warming, with a maximum abundance of juveniles at higher altitudes than adults. Three species, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, showed an opposite pattern while for other three species, such as Quercus ilex, Acer pseudoplatanus and Q. petraea, we were no able to detect changes in distribution. These findings are in contrast with theoretical predictions and show that tree responses to climate change are complex and are obscured not only by other environmental factors but also by internal processes related to ontogeny and demography.     

Long‐term physiological and growth responses of Himalayan fir to environmental change are mediated by mean climate

High‐elevation forests are experiencing high rates of warming, in combination with CO₂ rise and (sometimes) drying trends. In these montane systems, the effects of environmental changes on tree growth are also modified by elevation itself, thus complicating our ability to predict effects of future climate change. Tree‐ring analysis along an elevation gradient allows quantifying effects of gradual and annual environmental changes. Here, we study long‐term physiological (ratio of internal to ambient CO₂, i.e., C_i/C_a and intrinsic water‐use efficiency, iWUE) and growth responses (tree‐ring width) of Himalayan fir (Abies spectabilis) trees in response to warming, drying, and CO₂ rise. Our study was conducted along elevational gradients in a dry and a wet region in the central Himalaya. We combined dendrochronology and stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) to quantify long‐term trends in C_i/C_a ratio and iWUE (δ¹³C‐derived), growth (mixed‐effects models), and evaluate climate sensitivity (correlations). We found that iWUE increased over time at all elevations, with stronger increase in the dry region. Climate–growth relations showed growth‐limiting effects of spring moisture (dry region) and summer temperature (wet region), and negative effects of temperature (dry region). We found negative growth trends at lower elevations (dry and wet regions), suggesting that continental‐scale warming and regional drying reduced tree growth. This interpretation is supported by δ¹³C‐derived long‐term physiological responses, which are consistent with responses to reduced moisture and increased vapor pressure deficit. At high elevations (wet region), we found positive growth trends, suggesting that warming has favored tree growth in regions where temperature most strongly limits growth. At lower elevations (dry and wet regions), the positive effects of CO₂ rise did not mitigate the negative effects of warming and drying on tree growth. Our results raise concerns on the productivity of Himalayan fir forests at low and middle (<3,300 m) elevations as climate change progresses.     

The role of climate change in the widespread mortality of holm oak in open woodlands of Southwestern Spain

Forest decline and increasing tree mortality are of global concern and the identification of the causes is necessary to develop preventive measures. Global warming is an emerging factor responsible for the increasing tree mortality in drought-prone ecosystems. In the southwestern Iberian Peninsula, Mediterranean holm oak open woodlands currently undergo large-scale population-level tree die-off. In this region, temperature and aridity have increased during recent decades, but the possible role of climate change in the current oak mortality has not been investigated.To assess the role of climate change in oak die-off in managed open woodlands in southwestern Spain, we analyzed climate change-related signals in century-long tree ring chronologies of dead holm oaks. We examined the high/low-frequency variability in growth and the relationship between growth and climate.Similar to other Mediterranean forests, growth was favored by precipitation from autumn of the year prior to ring formation to spring of the year of ring formation, whereas high temperatures during spring limited growth. Since the 1970s, the intensity of the high-frequency response to water availability increased simultaneously with temperature and aridity. The growth trends matched those of climatic changes. Growth suppressions occurred during droughts in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Widespread stand-level, age-independent mortality occurred since 2005 and affected trees that cannot be considered old for the species standards.The close relationship between growth and climate indicate that climate change strongly controlled the growth patterns. This suggests that harsher climatic conditions, especially increased aridity, affected the tree performance and could have played a significant role in the mortality process. Climate change may have exacerbated or predisposed trees to the impact of other factors (e.g. intense management and pathogens). These observations could suggest a similar future increase in oak mortality which may occur in more northern oak open woodlands if aridity further increases.     

Parameter-specific hydroclimatic sensitivity of a low-elevation network of living and historical tree-ring series from north-eastern Austria

Compared to the alpine regions of Austria, the eastern part of the country is overall warmer and drier with some tree species growing at the dry limit within their ecological range. This suggests that tree rings may be a valuable proxy for hydroclimatic variability. In this study, we develop ring-width, earlywood-width and latewood-width chronologies obtained from drought sensitive living trees and historical timber from one of the driest and warmest regions of Austria, the Weinviertel. For this, samples of four different tree species − fir (Abies alba Mill.), spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), oak (Quercus petraea Liebl., Q. robur L., Q. cerris L.), and pine (Pinus sylvestris L., P. nigra Arnold) were collected from 88 sites (23 forest stands and 65 historical constructions). 1589 samples (oak: 592 samples, pine: 577, spruce: 212, fir: 208) were dated. Dendro-provenancing was required to ensure that only regional material has entered the chronologies. According to the analyses, historical pine and oak wood were nearly 100% regional, while spruce and fir wood were imported to a great extent with only 44% spruce and 35% fir confirmed to be regional. Because site conditions of historical wood samples are unknown but can have a significant influence on tree growth, changes to site replication over time were important in the assessment of chronology reliability. We also controlled for potential artificial increases in sample depth when more than one construction element is made from a single trunk.We assessed the pine (1584-2011 AD) and oak (1244-2011 AD) chronologies’ potential for reconstructing past hydroclimatic variability by means of response functions in a 17-months window from previous June to current October with climate data from three weather stations (Vienna, Retz, Brno) from 1897 to 2010 AD. The highest seasonal response coefficients are for oak and pine ring width (∼0.43) with respect to aggregated March to July precipitation totals and Thornthwaite climatic water balance. These chronologies reveal a high potential for estimating past changes in regional-scale moisture availability during the earlier growing season.     

Quantifying the effects of drought on abrupt growth decreases of major tree species in Switzerland

Drought entails important effects on tree physiology, which may result in short‐ to long‐term radial growth decreases. While the majority of studies have focused on annual drought‐related variability of growth, relatively little is known about sustained growth decreases following drought years. We apply a statistical framework to identify climatic factors that induce abrupt growth decreases and may eventually result in tree mortality. We used tree‐ring data from almost 500 standing dead trees and 200 living trees in eight sites of the Swiss network of strict forest reserves, including four of the most important Central European tree species (Abies alba, Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus spp.). First, to assess short‐term growth responses to drought under various climate and site conditions, we calculated correlations and linear mixed‐effects models between ring‐width indices (RWIs) and drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Second, to quantify drought effects on abrupt growth decreases, we applied distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), which account for both delayed effects and the nonlinear relationship between the SPEI and the occurrence of abrupt growth decreases. Positive correlations between RWIs and the SPEI indicated short‐term growth responses of all species, particularly at arid sites. Results of the DLNMs revealed species‐specific growth responses to drought. For Quercus spp., abrupt growth decreases were more likely to occur several years following severe drought, whereas for P. abies, A. alba, and F. sylvatica abrupt growth decreases started frequently immediately in the drought year. We conclude that the statistical framework allows for quantifying the effects of drought intensity on the probability of abrupt growth decreases, which ultimately contributes to an improved understanding of climate impacts on forest community dynamics.     

Patterns and drivers of Araucaria araucana forest growth along a biophysical gradient in the northern Patagonian Andes: Linking tree rings with satellite observations of soil moisture

Araucaria araucana (Araucaria) is a long‐lived conifer growing along a sharp west–east biophysical gradient in the Patagonian Andes. The patterns and climate drivers of Araucaria growth have typically been documented on the driest part of the gradient relying on correlations with meteorological records, but the lack of in situ soil moisture observations has precluded an assessment of the growth responses to soil moisture variability. Here, we use a network of 21 tree‐ring width chronologies to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of tree growth through the entire gradient and evaluate their linkages with regional climate and satellite‐observed surface soil moisture variability. We found that temporal variations in tree growth are remarkably similar throughout the gradient and largely driven by soil moisture variability. The regional spatiotemporal pattern of tree growth was positively correlated with precipitation (r = 0.35 for January 1920–1974; P < 0.01) and predominantly negatively correlated with temperature (r = ?0.38 for January–March 1920–1974; P < 0.01) during the previous growing season. These correlations suggest a temporally lagged growth response to summer moisture that could be associated with known physiological carry‐over processes in conifers and to a response to moisture variability at deeper layers of the rooting zone. Notably, satellite observations revealed a previously unobserved response of Araucaria growth to summer surface soil moisture during the current rather than the previous growing season (r = 0.65 for 1979–2000; P < 0.05). This new response has a large spatial footprint across the mid‐latitudes of the South American continent (35°–45°S) and highlights the potential of Araucaria tree rings for palaeoclimatic applications. The strong moisture constraint on tree growth revealed by satellite observations suggests that projected summer drying during the coming decades may result in regional growth declines in Araucaria forests and other water‐limited ecosystems in the Patagonian Andes.     

川西米亚罗林区不同海拔岷江冷杉生长对气候变化的响应

为分析青藏高原东缘半湿润区树木生长与气候关系随海拔变化的规律,于川西米亚罗林区分别在高、中、低海拔选取3个采样点,共采集132棵岷江冷杉年轮样芯,建立了最长达170a(1842-2011年)3个海拔高度的差值年表.岷江冷杉年轮指数与气候因子的相关分析表明:随海拔高度降低,温度与生长的负相关呈增加趋势.高海拔岷江冷杉径向生长与前—年冬季最低温呈显著正相关,中低海拔与当年春季均温、最高温和年均最高温呈显著负相关.低海拔岷江冷杉与当年4月降水呈显著正相关,随海拔升高降水与岷江冷杉生长的相关性降低.中低海拔岷江冷杉年表与4、5月帕尔默干旱指数(P DSI)呈显著正相关,表明在中低海拔存在春季干旱胁迫,抑制了岷江冷杉的生长.另外,大龄树木比小龄树木对气候变化的响应更敏感.     

Diverging shrub and tree growth from the Polar to the Mediterranean biomes across the European continent

Climate warming is expected to enhance productivity and growth of woody plants, particularly in temperature‐limited environments at the northernmost or uppermost limits of their distribution. However, this warming is spatially uneven and temporally variable, and the rise in temperatures differently affects biomes and growth forms. Here, applying a dendroecological approach with generalized additive mixed models, we analysed how the growth of shrubby junipers and coexisting trees (larch and pine species) responds to rising temperatures along a 5000‐km latitudinal range including sites from the Polar, Alpine to the Mediterranean biomes. We hypothesize that, being more coupled to ground microclimate, junipers will be less influenced by atmospheric conditions and will less respond to the post‐1950 climate warming than coexisting standing trees. Unexpectedly, shrub and tree growth forms revealed divergent growth trends in all the three biomes, with juniper performing better than trees at Mediterranean than at Polar and Alpine sites. The post‐1980s decline of tree growth in Mediterranean sites might be induced by drought stress amplified by climate warming and did not affect junipers. We conclude that different but coexisting long‐living growth forms can respond differently to the same climate factor and that, even in temperature‐limited area, other drivers like the duration of snow cover might locally play a fundamental role on woody plants growth across Europe.