Population abundance in arctic grayling using genetics and close‐kin mark‐recapture

Arctic Grayling (Thymallus arcticus) are among the most widely distributed and abundant freshwater fish in the Yukon Territory of Canada, yet little information exists regarding their broad and fine‐scale population structures or the number and size of these populations. The estimation of population abundance is fundamental for robust management and conservation, yet estimating abundance in the wild is often difficult. Here, we estimated abundance of an Arctic Grayling population using multiple genetic markers and the close‐kin mark‐recapture (CKMR) method. A total of N = 1,104 Arctic Grayling collected from two systems in Yukon were genotyped at 38 sequenced microsatellites. We first identified structure and assessed genetic diversity (effective population size, N^e). Collections from one of the systems (Lubbock River) comprised adults and young‐of‐the‐year sampled independently allowing the identification of parent–offspring pairs (POPs), and thus, the estimation of abundance using CKMR. We used COLONY and CKMRsim to identify POPs and both provided similar results leading to indistinguishable estimates (95% CI) of census size, that is, N^c(COLONY) = 1858 (1259–2457) and N^c(CKMRsim)=1812 (1229–2389). The accuracy of the population abundance estimates can in the future be improved with temporal sampling and more precise age or size‐specific fecundity estimates for Arctic Grayling. Our study demonstrates that the method can be used to inform management and conservation policy for Arctic Grayling and likely also for other fish species for which the assumption of random and independent sampling of adults and offspring can be assured.     

Inference for epidemic models with time‐varying infection rates: Tracking the dynamics of oak processionary moth in the UK

1. Invasive pests pose a great threat to forest, woodland, and urban tree ecosystems. The oak processionary moth (OPM) is a destructive pest of oak trees, first reported in the UK in 2006. Despite great efforts to contain the outbreak within the original infested area of South‐East England, OPM continues to spread.
2. Here, we analyze data consisting of the numbers of OPM nests removed each year from two parks in London between 2013 and 2020. Using a state‐of‐the‐art Bayesian inference scheme, we estimate the parameters for a stochastic compartmental SIR (susceptible, infested, and removed) model with a time‐varying infestation rate to describe the spread of OPM.
3. We find that the infestation rate and subsequent basic reproduction number have remained constant since 2013 (with R0 between one and two). This shows further controls must be taken to reduce R0 below one and stop the advance of OPM into other areas of England.
4. Synthesis. Our findings demonstrate the applicability of the SIR model to describing OPM spread and show that further controls are needed to reduce the infestation rate. The proposed statistical methodology is a powerful tool to explore the nature of a time‐varying infestation rate, applicable to other partially observed time series epidemic data.

     

Underwater photogrammetry for close‐range 3D imaging of dry‐sensitive objects: The case study of cephalopod beaks

• Technical advances in 3D imaging have contributed to quantifying and understanding biological variability and complexity. However, small, dry‐sensitive objects are not easy to reconstruct using common and easily available techniques such as photogrammetry, surface scanning, or micro‐CT scanning. Here, we use cephalopod beaks as an example as their size, thickness, transparency, and dry‐sensitive nature make them particularly challenging. We developed a new, underwater, photogrammetry protocol in order to add these types of biological structures to the panel of photogrammetric possibilities.
• We used a camera with a macrophotography mode in a waterproof housing fixed in a tank with clear water. The beak was painted and fixed on a colored rotating support. Three angles of view, two acquisitions, and around 300 pictures per specimen were taken in order to reconstruct a full 3D model. These models were compared with others obtained with micro‐CT scanning to verify their accuracy.
• The models can be obtained quickly and cheaply compared with micro‐CT scanning and have sufficient precision for quantitative interspecific morphological analyses. Our work shows that underwater photogrammetry is a fast, noninvasive, efficient, and accurate way to reconstruct 3D models of dry‐sensitive objects while conserving their shape. While the reconstruction of the shape is accurate, some internal parts cannot be reconstructed with photogrammetry as they are not visible. In contrast, these structures are visible using reconstructions based on micro‐CT scanning. The mean difference between both methods is very small (10⁻⁵ to 10⁻⁴ mm) and is significantly lower than differences between meshes of different individuals.
• This photogrammetry protocol is portable, easy‐to‐use, fast, and reproducible. Micro‐CT scanning, in contrast, is time‐consuming, expensive, and nonportable. This protocol can be applied to reconstruct the 3D shape of many other dry‐sensitive objects such as shells of shellfish, cartilage, plants, and other chitinous materials.

     

Globally,plant‐soil feedbacks are weak predictors of plant abundance

Plant‐soil feedbacks (PSFs) have been shown to strongly affect plant performance under controlled conditions, and PSFs are thought to have far reaching consequences for plant population dynamics and the structuring of plant communities. However, thus far the relationship between PSF and plant species abundance in the field is not consistent. Here, we synthesize PSF experiments from tropical forests to semiarid grasslands, and test for a positive relationship between plant abundance in the field and PSFs estimated from controlled bioassays. We meta‐analyzed results from 22 PSF experiments and found an overall positive correlation (0.12 ≤ r¯ ≤ 0.32) between plant abundance in the field and PSFs across plant functional types (herbaceous and woody plants) but also variation by plant functional type. Thus, our analysis provides quantitative support that plant abundance has a general albeit weak positive relationship with PSFs across ecosystems. Overall, our results suggest that harmful soil biota tend to accumulate around and disproportionately impact species that are rare. However, data for the herbaceous species, which are most common in the literature, had no significant abundance‐PSFs relationship. Therefore, we conclude that further work is needed within and across biomes, succession stages and plant types, both under controlled and field conditions, while separating PSF effects from other drivers (e.g., herbivory, competition, disturbance) of plant abundance to tease apart the role of soil biota in causing patterns of plant rarity versus commonness.     

A modified niche model for generating food webs with stage‐structured consumers: The stabilizing effects of life‐history stages on complex food webs

1. Almost all organisms grow in size during their lifetime and switch diets, trophic positions, and interacting partners as they grow. Such ontogenetic development introduces life‐history stages and flows of biomass between the stages through growth and reproduction. However, current research on complex food webs rarely considers life‐history stages. The few previously proposed methods do not take full advantage of the existing food web structural models that can produce realistic food web topologies.
2. We extended the niche model developed by Williams and Martinez (Nature, 2000, 404, 180–183) to generate food webs that included trophic species with a life‐history stage structure. Our method aggregated trophic species based on niche overlap to form a life‐history structured population; therefore, it largely preserved the topological structure of food webs generated by the niche model. We applied the theory of allometric predator–prey body mass ratio and parameterized an allometric bioenergetic model augmented with biomass flow between stages via growth and reproduction to study the effects of a stage structure on the stability of food webs.
3. When life‐history stages were linked via growth and reproduction, more food webs persisted, and persisting food webs tended to retain more trophic species. Topological differences between persisting linked and unlinked food webs were small to modest. The slopes of biomass spectra were lower, and weak interaction links were more prevalent in the linked food webs than the unlinked ones, suggesting that a life‐history stage structure promotes characteristics that can enhance stability of complex food webs.
4. Our results suggest a positive relationship between the complexity and stability of complex food webs. A life‐history stage structure in food webs may play important roles in dynamics of and diversity in food webs.

     

Age‐specific habitat preference,carrying capacity,and landscape structure determine the response of population spatial variability to fishing‐driven age truncation

1. Understanding the mechanisms underlying spatial variability of exploited fish is critical for the sustainable management of fish stocks. Empirical studies suggest that size‐selective fishing can elevate fish population spatial variability (i.e., more heterogeneous distribution) through age truncation, making the population less resilient to changing environment. However, species differ in how their spatial variability responds to age truncation and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear.
2. We hypothesize that age‐specific habitat preference, together with environmental carrying capacity and landscape structure, determines the response of population spatial variability to fishing‐induced age truncation. To test these hypotheses, we design an individual‐based model of an age‐structured fish population on a two‐dimensional landscape under size‐selective fishing. Individual fish reproduces and survives, and moves between habitats according to age‐specific habitat preference and density‐dependent habitat selection.
3. Population spatial variability elevates with increasing age truncation, and the response is stronger for populations with stronger age‐specific habitat preference. On a gradient landscape, reducing carrying capacity elevates the relative importance of density dependence in habitat selection, which weakens the response of spatial variability to age truncation for populations with strong age‐specific habitat preference. On a fragmented landscape, both populations with strong and weak age‐specific habitat preferences are restricted at local optimal habitats, and reducing carrying capacity weakens the responses of spatial variability to age truncation for both populations.
4. Synthesis and applications. We demonstrate that to track and predict the changes in population spatial variability under exploitation, it is essential to consider the interactive effects of age‐specific habitat preference, carrying capacity, and landscape structure. To improve spatial management in fisheries, it is crucial to enhance empirical and theoretical developments in the methodology to quantify age‐specific habitat preference of marine fish, and to understand how climatic change influences carrying capacity and landscape continuity.

     

Spatial capture–recapture with random thinning for unidentified encounters

1. Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models have increasingly been used as a basis for combining capture–recapture data types with variable levels of individual identity information to estimate population density and other demographic parameters. Recent examples are the unmarked SCR (or spatial count model), where no individual identities are available and spatial mark–resight (SMR) where individual identities are available for only a marked subset of the population. Currently lacking, though, is a model that allows unidentified samples to be combined with identified samples when there are no separate classes of “marked” and “unmarked” individuals and when the two sample types cannot be considered as arising from two independent observation models. This is a common scenario when using noninvasive sampling methods, for example, when analyzing data on identified and unidentified photographs or scats from the same sites.
2. Here we describe a “random thinning” SCR model that utilizes encounters of both known and unknown identity samples using a natural mechanistic dependence between samples arising from a single observation model. Our model was fitted in a Bayesian framework using NIMBLE.
3. We investigate the improvement in parameter estimates by including the unknown identity samples, which was notable (up to 79% more precise) in low‐density populations with a low rate of identified encounters. We then applied the random thinning SCR model to a noninvasive genetic sampling study of brown bear (Ursus arctos) density in Oriental Cantabrian Mountains (North Spain).
4. Our model can improve density estimation for noninvasive sampling studies for low‐density populations with low rates of individual identification, by making use of available data that might otherwise be discarded.

     

Patch utilization and flower visitations by wild bees in a honey bee‐dominated,grassland landscape

Understanding habitat needs and patch utilization of wild and managed bees has been identified as a national research priority in the United States. We used occupancy models to investigate patterns of bee use across 1030 transects spanning a gradient of floral resource abundance and richness and distance from apiaries in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States. Estimates of transect use by honey bees were nearly 1.0 during our 3.5‐month sampling period, suggesting honey bees were nearly ubiquitous across transects. Wild bees more frequently used transects with higher flower richness and more abundant flowers; however, the effect size of the native flower abundance covariate (β^native = 3.90 ± 0.65 [1SE]) was four times greater than the non‐native flower covariate (β^non‐native = 0.99 ± 0.17). We found some evidence that wild bee use was lower at transects near commercial apiaries, but the effect size was imprecise (β^distance = 1.4 ± 0.81). Honey bees were more frequently detected during sampling events with more non‐native flowers and higher species richness but showed an uncertain relationship with native flower abundance. Of the 4039 honey bee and flower interactions, 85% occurred on non‐native flowers, while only 43% of the 738 wild bee observations occurred on non‐native flowers. Our study suggests wild bees and honey bees routinely use the same resource patches in the PPR but often visit different flowering plants. The greatest potential for resource overlap between honey bees and wild bees appears to be for non‐native flowers in the PPR. Our results are valuable to natural resource managers tasked with supporting habitat for managed and wild pollinators in agroecosystems.     

Demographic effects of a megafire on a declining prairie grouse in the mixed‐grass prairie

Recent studies have documented benefits of small, prescribed fire and wildfire for grassland‐dependent wildlife, such as lesser prairie‐chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicintus), but wildlife demographic response to the scale and intensity of megafire (wildfire >40,000 ha) in modern, fragmented grasslands remains unknown. Limited available grassland habitat makes it imperative to understand if increasing frequency of megafires could further reduce already declining lesser prairie‐chicken populations, or if historical evolutionary interactions with fire make lesser prairie‐chickens resilient. To evaluate lesser prairie‐chicken demographic response to megafires, we compared lek counts, nest density, and survival rates of adults, nests, and chicks before (2014–2016) and after (2018–2020) a 2017 megafire in the mixed‐grass prairie of Kansas, USA (Starbuck fire ~254,000 ha). There was a 67% decline in attending males on leks post‐fire and a 57% decline in occupied leks post‐fire. Despite population declines as indicated by lek counts, adult female breeding season survival (S^) was similar pre‐ (S^ = 0.65 ± 0.08 [SE]) and post‐fire (0.61 ± 0.08), as was chick survival (pre‐fire: 0.23 ± 0.07; post‐fire: 0.27 ± 0.11). Nest survival appeared lower post‐fire (pre‐fire: 0.38 ± 0.06; post‐fire: 0.20 ± 0.06), but did not differ at the 95% confidence interval. Nest density of marked females declined 73% in areas burned by megafire. Although lesser prairie‐chickens persisted in the study area and we documented minimal effects on most demographic rates, reduced lesser prairie‐chicken abundance and reproductive output suggests full recovery may take >3 years. Increased propensity for megafire resulting from suppression of smaller fires, compounded by climate change and woody encroachment, may impose a short‐term (3–5 year) threat to already declining lesser prairie‐chicken populations.     

Negative density-dependent dispersal in tsetse (Glossina spp): An artefact of inappropriate analysis

Published analysis of genetic material from field-collected tsetse (Glossina spp, primarily from the Palpalis group) has been used to predict that the distance (δ) dispersed per generation increases as effective population densities (D_e) decrease, displaying negative density-dependent dispersal (NDDD). Using the published data we show this result is an artefact arising primarily from errors in estimates of S, the area occupied by a subpopulation, and thereby in D_e. The errors arise from the assumption that S can be estimated as the area (S^) regarded as being covered by traps. We use modelling to show that such errors result in anomalously high correlations between δ^ and S^ and the appearance of NDDD, with a slope of -0.5 for the regressions of log(δ^) on log(D^e), even in simulations where we specifically assume density-independent dispersal (DID). A complementary mathematical analysis confirms our findings. Modelling of field results shows, similarly, that the false signal of NDDD can be produced by varying trap deployment patterns. Errors in the estimates of δ in the published analysis were magnified because variation in estimates of S were greater than for all other variables measured, and accounted for the greatest proportion of variation in δ^. Errors in census population estimates result from an erroneous understanding of the relationship between trap placement and expected tsetse catch, exacerbated through failure to adjust for variations in trapping intensity, trap performance, and in capture probabilities between geographical situations and between tsetse species. Claims of support in the literature for NDDD are spurious. There is no suggested explanation for how NDDD might have evolved. We reject the NDDD hypothesis and caution that the idea should not be allowed to influence policy on tsetse and trypanosomiasis control.     

Agent‐based modeling of the effects of forest dynamics,selective logging,and fragment size on epiphyte communities

1. Forest canopies play a crucial role in structuring communities of vascular epiphytes by providing substrate for colonization, by locally varying microclimate, and by causing epiphyte mortality due to branch or tree fall. However, as field studies in the three‐dimensional habitat of epiphytes are generally challenging, our understanding of how forest structure and dynamics influence the structure and dynamics of epiphyte communities is scarce.
2. Mechanistic models can improve our understanding of epiphyte community dynamics. We present such a model that couples dispersal, growth, and mortality of individual epiphytes with substrate dynamics, obtained from a three‐dimensional functional–structural forest model, allowing the study of forest–epiphyte interactions. After validating the epiphyte model with independent field data, we performed several theoretical simulation experiments to assess how (a) differences in natural forest dynamics, (b) selective logging, and (c) forest fragmentation could influence the long‐term dynamics of epiphyte communities.
3. The proportion of arboreal substrate occupied by epiphytes (i.e., saturation level) was tightly linked with forest dynamics and increased with decreasing forest turnover rates. While species richness was, in general, negatively correlated with forest turnover rates, low species numbers in forests with very‐low‐turnover rates were due to competitive exclusion when epiphyte communities became saturated. Logging had a negative impact on epiphyte communities, potentially leading to a near‐complete extirpation of epiphytes when the simulated target diameters fell below a threshold. Fragment size had no effect on epiphyte abundance and saturation level but correlated positively with species numbers.
4. Synthesis: The presented model is a first step toward studying the dynamic forest–epiphyte interactions in an agent‐based modeling framework. Our study suggests forest dynamics as key factor in controlling epiphyte communities. Thus, both natural and human‐induced changes in forest dynamics, for example, increased mortality rates or the loss of large trees, pose challenges for epiphyte conservation.

     

The comparative energetics of the turtles and crocodiles

The Add‐my‐Pet collection of data on energetics and Dynamic Energy Budget parameters currently contains 92 species of turtles and 23 species of crocodiles. We discuss patterns of eco‐physiological traits of turtles and crocodiles, as functions of parameter values, and compare them with other taxa. Turtles and crocodiles accurately match the general rule that the life‐time cumulated neonate mass production equals ultimate weight. The weight at birth for reptiles scales with ultimate weight to the power 0.6. The scaling exponent is between that of amphibians and birds, while that for mammals is close to 1. We explain why this points to limitations imposed by embryonic respiration, the role of water stress and the accumulation of nitrogen waste during the embryo stage. Weight at puberty is proportional to ultimate weight, and is the largest for crocodiles, followed by that of turtles. These facts explain why the precociality coefficient, sHbp—approximated by the ratio of weight at birth and weight at puberty at abundant food—decreases with ultimate weight. It is the smallest for crocodiles because of their large size and is smaller for turtles than for lizards and snakes. The sea turtles have a smaller sHbp than the rest of the turtles, linked to their large size and small offspring size. We link their small weight and age at birth to reducing risks on the beach. The maximum reserve capacity in both turtles and crocodiles clearly decreases with the precociality coefficient. This relationship has not been found that clearly in other taxa, not even in other reptiles, with the exception of the chondrichthyans. Among reptiles, crocodiles and sea turtles have a relatively large assimilation rate and a large reserve capacity.     

Pseudo‐repeats in doublecortin make distinct mechanistic contributions to microtubule regulation

Doublecortin (DCX) is a neuronal microtubule‐associated protein (MAP) indispensable for brain development. Its flexibly linked doublecortin (DC) domains—NDC and CDC—mediate microtubule (MT) nucleation and stabilization, but it is unclear how. Using high‐resolution time‐resolved cryo‐EM, we mapped NDC and CDC interactions with tubulin at different MT polymerization stages and studied their functional effects on MT dynamics using TIRF microscopy. Although coupled, each DC repeat within DCX appears to have a distinct role in MT nucleation and stabilization: CDC is a conformationally plastic module that appears to facilitate MT nucleation and stabilize tubulin–tubulin contacts in the nascent MT lattice, while NDC appears to be favored along the mature lattice, providing MT stabilization. Our structures of MT‐bound DC domains also explain in unprecedented detail the DCX mutation‐related brain defects observed in the clinic. This modular composition of DCX reflects a common design principle among MAPs where pseudo‐repeats of tubulin/MT binding elements chaperone or stabilize distinct conformational transitions to regulate distinct stages of MT dynamic instability.     

Mixing tree species associated with arbuscular or ectotrophic mycorrhizae reveals dual mycorrhization and interactive effects on the fungal partners

1. Recent studies found that the majority of shrub and tree species are associated with both arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi. However, our knowledge on how different mycorrhizal types interact with each other is still limited. We asked whether the combination of hosts with a preferred association with either AM or EM fungi increases the host tree roots’ mycorrhization rate and affects AM and EM fungal richness and community composition.
2. We established a tree diversity experiment, where five tree species of each of the two mycorrhiza types were planted in monocultures, two‐species and four‐species mixtures. We applied morphological assessment to estimate mycorrhization rates and next‐generation molecular sequencing to quantify mycobiont richness.
3. Both the morphological and molecular assessment revealed dual‐mycorrhizal colonization in 79% and 100% of the samples, respectively. OTU community composition strongly differed between AM and EM trees. While host tree species richness did not affect mycorrhization rates, we observed significant effects of mixing AM‐ and EM‐associated hosts in AM mycorrhization rate. Glomeromycota richness was larger in monotypic AM tree combinations than in AM‐EM mixtures, pointing to a dilution or suppression effect of AM by EM trees. We found a strong match between morphological quantification of AM mycorrhization rate and Glomeromycota richness.
4. Synthesis. We provide evidence that the combination of hosts differing in their preferred mycorrhiza association affects the host''s fungal community composition, thus revealing important biotic interactions among trees and their associated fungi.

     

A new l‐arginine oxidase engineered from l‐glutamate oxidase

The alternation of substrate specificity expands the application range of enzymes in industrial, medical, and pharmaceutical fields. l‐Glutamate oxidase (LGOX) from Streptomyces sp. X‐119‐6 catalyzes the oxidative deamination of l‐glutamate to produce 2‐ketoglutarate with ammonia and hydrogen peroxide. LGOX shows strict substrate specificity for l‐glutamate. Previous studies on LGOX revealed that Arg305 in its active site recognizes the side chain of l‐glutamate, and replacement of Arg305 by other amino acids drastically changes the substrate specificity of LGOX. Here we demonstrate that the R305E mutant variant of LGOX exhibits strict specificity for l‐arginine. The oxidative deamination activity of LGOX to l‐arginine is higher than that of l‐arginine oxidase form from Pseudomonas sp. TPU 7192. X‐ray crystal structure analysis revealed that the guanidino group of l‐arginine is recognized not only by Glu305 but also Asp433, Trp564, and Glu617, which interact with Arg305 in wild‐type LGOX. Multiple interactions by these residues provide strict specificity and high activity of LGOX R305E toward l‐arginine. LGOX R305E is a thermostable and pH stable enzyme. The amount of hydrogen peroxide, which is a byproduct of oxidative deamination of l‐arginine by LGOX R305E, is proportional to the concentration of l‐arginine in a range from 0 to 100 μM. The linear relationship is maintained around 1 μM of l‐arginine. Thus, LGOX R305E is suitable for the determination of l‐arginine.     

N‐glycosylation of PD‐1 promotes binding of camrelizumab

PD‐1 is a highly glycosylated inhibitory receptor expressed mainly on T cells. Targeting of PD‐1 with monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) to block the interaction with its ligand PD‐L1 has been successful for the treatment of multiple tumors. However, polymorphisms at N‐glycosylation sites of PD‐1 exist in the human population that might affect antibody binding, and dysregulated glycosylation has been observed in the tumor microenvironment. Here, we demonstrate varied N‐glycan composition in PD‐1, and show that the binding affinity of camrelizumab, a recently approved PD‐1‐specific MAb, to non‐glycosylated PD‐1 proteins from E. coli is substantially decreased compared with glycosylated PD‐1. The structure of the camrelizumab/PD‐1 complex reveals that camrelizumab mainly utilizes its heavy chain to bind to PD‐1, while the light chain sterically inhibits the binding of PD‐L1 to PD‐1. Glycosylation of asparagine 58 (N58) promotes the interaction with camrelizumab, while the efficiency of camrelizumab to inhibit the binding of PD‐L1 is substantially reduced for glycosylation‐deficient PD‐1. These results increase our understanding of how glycosylation affects the activity of PD‐1‐specific MAbs during immune checkpoint therapy.     

Kinetic characteristics of long‐term repeated fed‐batch (LtRFb) l‐lactic acid fermentation by a Bacillus coagulans strain

Application of degradable plastics is the most critical solution to plastic pollution. As the precursor of biodegradable plastic PLA (polylactic acid), efficient production of l‐lactic acid is vital for the commercial replacement of traditional plastics. Bacillus coagulans H‐2, a robust strain, was investigated for effective production of l‐lactic acid using long‐term repeated fed‐batch (LtRFb) fermentation. Kinetic characteristics of l‐lactic acid fermentation were analyzed by two models, showing that cell‐growth coupled production gradually replaces cell‐maintenance coupled production during fermentation. With the LtRFb strategy, l‐lactic acid was produced at a high final concentration of 192.7 g/L, on average, and a yield of up to 93.0% during 20 batches of repeated fermentation within 487.5 h. Thus, strain H‐2 can be used in the industrial production of l‐lactic acid with optimization based on kinetic modeling.     

Interacting forces of predation and fishing affect species’ maturation size

1. Fishing is a strong selective force and is supposed to select for earlier maturation at smaller body size. However, the extent to which fishing‐induced evolution is shaping ecosystems remains debated. This is in part because it is challenging to disentangle fishing from other selective forces (e.g., size‐structured predation and cannibalism) in complex ecosystems undergoing rapid change.
2. Changes in maturation size from fishing and predation have previously been explored with multi‐species physiologically structured models but assumed separation of ecological and evolutionary timescales. To assess the eco‐evolutionary impact of fishing and predation at the same timescale, we developed a stochastic physiologically size‐structured food‐web model, where new phenotypes are introduced randomly through time enabling dynamic simulation of species'' relative maturation sizes under different types of selection pressures.
3. Using the model, we carried out a fully factorial in silico experiment to assess how maturation size would change in the absence and presence of both fishing and predation (including cannibalism). We carried out ten replicate stochastic simulations exposed to all combinations of fishing and predation in a model community of nine interacting fish species ranging in their maximum sizes from 10 g to 100 kg. We visualized and statistically analyzed the results using linear models.
4. The effects of fishing on maturation size depended on whether or not predation was enabled and differed substantially across species. Fishing consistently reduced the maturation sizes of two largest species whether or not predation was enabled and this decrease was seen even at low fishing intensities (F = 0.2 per year). In contrast, the maturation sizes of the three smallest species evolved to become smaller through time but this happened regardless of the levels of predation or fishing. For the four medium‐size species, the effect of fishing was highly variable with more species showing significant and larger fishing effects in the presence of predation.
5. Ultimately our results suggest that the interactive effects of predation and fishing can have marked effects on species'' maturation sizes, but that, at least for the largest species, predation does not counterbalance the evolutionary effect of fishing. Our model also produced relative maturation sizes that are broadly consistent with empirical estimates for many fish species.

     

Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture–recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

1. In species providing extended parental care, one or both parents care for altricial young over a period including more than one breeding season. We expect large parental investment and long‐term dependency within family units to cause high variability in life trajectories among individuals with complex consequences at the population level. So far, models for estimating demographic parameters in free‐ranging animal populations mostly ignore extended parental care, thereby limiting our understanding of its consequences on parents and offspring life histories.
2. We designed a capture–recapture multievent model for studying the demography of species providing extended parental care. It handles statistical multiple‐year dependency among individual demographic parameters grouped within family units, variable litter size, and uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence. It allows for the evaluation of trade‐offs among demographic parameters, the influence of past reproductive history on the caring parent''s survival status, breeding probability, and litter size probability, while accounting for imperfect detection of family units. We assess the model performance using simulated data and illustrate its use with a long‐term dataset collected on the Svalbard polar bears (Ursus maritimus).
3. Our model performed well in terms of bias and mean square error and in estimating demographic parameters in all simulated scenarios, both when offspring departure probability from the family unit occurred at a constant rate or varied during the field season depending on the date of capture. For the polar bear case study, we provide estimates of adult and dependent offspring survival rates, breeding probability, and litter size probability. Results showed that the outcome of the previous reproduction influenced breeding probability.
4. Overall, our results show the importance of accounting for i) the multiple‐year statistical dependency within family units, ii) uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence, and iii) past reproductive history of the caring parent. If ignored, estimates obtained for breeding probability, litter size, and survival can be biased. This is of interest in terms of conservation because species providing extended parental care are often long‐living mammals vulnerable or threatened with extinction.

     

Factors influencing the habitat use by ocelots in one of the last large Atlantic Forest remnants in southeastern Brazil

Ocelots (Leopardus pardalis) are widely distributed throughout the Americas, being dependent on forested areas to survive. Although ocelot ecology is broadly studied throughout the species range distribution, studies concerning factors that may affect ocelot occupancy in the Atlantic Forest are still scarce. We used camera traps to evaluate factors influencing the probabilities of detection and occupancy of ocelots in a protected area of the Atlantic Forest, the Rio Doce State Park (RDSP), southeastern Brazil. To assess ocelot occupancy and detection probabilities, we measured the distances between sampling stations and rivers, lakes, cities, pasture, and Eucalyptus plantations. In addition, we recorded the mean rainfall levels for each sampling occasion, and native grassland areas within a 500 m‐buffer around each sampling station. We found a strong and positive association between ocelot detection and the dry season, which might be due to a higher number of individuals moving through the Park during this season. Moreover, we found a strong and positive association of ocelot detection with native grassland areas around lakes, which may be related to the ocelot behavior of searching for prey in these areas. Conversely, the ocelot occupancy probability was intermediate (Ψ^ = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.36–0.69) and was not strongly associated with the evaluated covariates, which may be explained by the high‐quality of forest habitats and water resources that are homogeneously distributed within the Park. Our study indicates that the RDSP still provides a structurally suitable forest habitat for ocelots, but because of the current worrying scenario of over fragmentation, reduction of forest cover, and weakness of the protective legislation of this biome, the long‐term persistence of the species in RDSP is uncertain.